فهرست مطالب الهام غلامی

The purpose of this study is to evaluate lessons from privatization in Iran. For this purpose, a case study method was utilized and four companies including Raja Passenger Train Company, Iran Airtour Airlines, Haft Tappeh Sugarcane Agro-industrial Company and Al Mahdi Aluminum Complex were investigated. The main idea of this research is that transition to market system is a systemic process rather than a mere assignment of ownership from government-owned parent companies to non-governmental owners. Based on the findings, privatization can be successful when  1. In classification of state-owned companies, paying attention to nature and functions of a company is more important than the place of the company or its activity in Principle 44 of the Constitution. 2. Cooperation between privatization organization and relevant parent companies is better than a contrast that has been predicted in clause 《1》article (18) of general policies of Principle 44. 3. Increasing companies’ commitment to assignment (such as imposing a new workforce on a company) should be criminalized, 4. The ceding board should be authorized, and 5. The implementation method of the transfer (such as issuing a transfer act before setting the price, issuing calls for transfer without ensuring transparency of financial statements, or disqualification of mangers of strategic and large-scale companies that transfer as a block) should be revised.

In recent years, the operation of the country's banks, affected by internal factors and changes in macroeconomic factors, became unstable and irresistible. This led to the inability to establish stability and the emergence of inefficiency of the economic environment in the functioning of the banking network. Following this, bank executives aimed to identify the factors which affected the resilience of banks and tried to eliminate their vulnerabilities in order to provide the maximum possible benefits, as well as solutions for reforming, strengthening, clarifying, and making the banking system a healthy entity. In the same vein, the components affecting the financial stability and strengthening of the banking system were identified in this study through a mixed methods approach. The results showed that the factors affecting the stability and strengthening of the banking system are classified into two general groups: 1. Environmental and external factors, including macroeconomic conditions, the central bank, the government and higher-order authorities, together with socio-cultural infrastructure; 2. Internal and specific banking factors, including financial health and strengthening of income sources, administrative health and corruption control, excellence of organizational resources and making them intelligent, and innovative management of services and products. The findings revealed that financial health and strengthening of income sources (0.2304), macroeconomic conditions and its stability (0.2150), and the central bank, government, and higher-order authorities (0.1558) are more important in the stability and strengthening of the banking system, which requires executives and planners of the banking system to take them into serious consideration.

In ruminants, cobalt is essential for synthesis of vitamin B12 by rumen microflora. Emaciation and anemia are the most important consequences of cobalt deficiency in ruminants. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between cobalt, iron, zinc, and manganese levels of soil and forage with each other and with serum levels of cobalt, zinc, and vitamin B12 in emaciated and normal sheep of Ramhormoz city. Eight soil and 8 forage samples were taken from four areas in Ramhormoz city. The soil and forage samples were analyzed. Blood samples were collected from 25 (15 emaciated and 10 normal) and 43 sheep (28 emaciated and 15 normal) from areas with more and less than 0.07 μg cobalt/Kg of DM forage, respectively and were analyzed to determine serum cobalt, zinc, vitamin B12 values and some hematological parameters. The forage cobalt value in Plim (0.052±0.02 mg/kg dry matter (DM)) and Larkiabad (0.054±0.00 mg/kg DM) regions was lower than the standard value. The mean soil iron value (15767±1333 mg/kg arid soil) was more than its critical level in Ramhormoz. The highest soil manganese values in Larkiabad and Plim regions were associated with the lowest forage cobalt values. There was no statistically significant difference between serum levels of cobalt, zinc, and vitamin B12 in the emaciated and normal sheep. It is possible that the high amounts of soil iron and manganese, due to their chelating effects, could reduce the cobalt bio-availability of forage. Contrary to the available literature, the presence of 0.05 μg cobalt/Kg of DM forage is capable of providing sufficient amounts of cobalt and vitamin B12 for sheep in the region.

Reducing the consumption of goods harmful to human health is one of the government’s policies goals all around the world. One of the control tools in order to reduce the consumption of these goods is to increase their consumption tax rate in order to increase prices resulting less consumption and provide the required financial resources for culturalization, education and consumption control in the society. The purpose of this article is to estimate the optimal taxation rate on the consumption of goods harmful to health in a way that despite increased tax revenues, it would have the least disruptive effects on the household’s welfare. For this purpose, using the almost ideal quadratic demand system based on non-linear seemingly unrelated regressions and the household’s data for 1390 to 1398, the demand for health-damaging goods, has been estimated and relevant price elasticities are calculated. Then, based on the compensating variation as a welfare measure by micro-data (for each sample household) and in various income scenarios, the optimal tax rates have been estimated and analyzed for year 1398, using nonlinear optimization methods. Based on the results and considering that implementing a same tax rate for all good groups are easier and more practical, a tax rate of 31% (including VAT and duties of article 48 of the Law on Accession Some Articles to the Regulatory for Part of Government Financial Regulations Act, 1393) is suggested to apply for all good groups. In this situation, the average welfare reduction for each household is close to 2310 thousand Rials and the amount of tax revenues would be 68,595 billion Rials, based on the information of year 1398. This tax revenue is more than 4 times of the budget law performance in this year.

Different types of death among people indicates both the extent to which people use different types of health care and the growth and development of a society. Premature mortality imposes a heavy burden on society in terms of health, economy, and mental issues. Given the preventability of these deaths, efforts are being made to reduce premature deaths by 25 percent ın hıgh level plans by 1404s.

The purpose of this descriptive-analytical study, using death registration data, was to perform zoning of premature deaths in the cities supervised by Semnan University of Medical Sciences in Iran, it also investigated the factors affecting the premature deaths in order to reduce premature mortality especially among people at the age range of 30 to 69. Data were extracted based on the information of death certificates entered in the death registration system from 2013 to 2018. We, thus, studied 3619 registered deaths. The data were analyzed through SPSS software, using descriptive statistics (Relative Frequency, Mean, and Standard Deviation) and inferential tests (chi-square and independent t-test) according to the type of variables. The level of significance was set at 5 percent.

The mean and standard deviation of premature mortality was found to be 55.7 ± 10.6 and most of the deaths occurred in the seventh decade of their life. Premature mortality was more common among men, employed people, and urban residents. The major causes of premature mortality included cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and accidents.

The results showed that accidents are the major cause of premature mortality at younger age, but they are gradually replaced by chronic and non-communicable diseases at the middle age. Therefore, in order to reduce the risk factors regarding premature mortality, collaboration of the related organizations is essential.

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate factors affecting the life insurance demand of insurance companies in Iran. In this regard, eight factors include four intra-organizational quantitative factors (number of branches and agents, financial enrichment, average premium rate and payback loss), and four external factors (GDP, average interest rate, inflation rate, and stock market returns) Has been identified and investigated their effect on the insurance demand of insurance companies using multivariate regression model. This regression model was estimated using the data of 20 insurance companies during the year’s 2010 to 2016 using panel data with constant effects. The results of the model estimation indicate that among of internal organization factors, all factors, except the number of branches and agents, have a significant effect on the life insurance demands of insurance companies, so that the payback loss and financial empowerment have a positive and average premium rate has a negative effect on life insurance demand of insurance companies. In addition, all of the external organization quantitative factors have a significant effect on the life insurance demand of companies, so that GDP has a positive effect and interest rate, inflation rate and stock return rate have a negative effect on the life insurance demand of insurance companies.

One of the essential steps that the banking system needs to take for achieving the objectives of national economy is to provide facilities and, in other words, manage credit portfolio in order to reduce the risks, decrease the overall cost of facilities, prevent the freeze of resources, and employ up to date international standards. Accordingly, in this paper, the optimization of the credit portfolio of Melli Bank has been investigated over the period of 2014-2018 using by minimizing the risk of expected output. The results show that during the period under investigation, the Bank Melli has acted as a risk tolerant agency and the trend of facility shares, in almost all periods, has been compatible with the optimized correlation of risk and output; that means, during the periods of high risk levels, Bank Melli has allocated more facilities to the economic section in order to gain a better output. Also, in order to reduce the cost of given facilities during the period under review, it was better for Bank Melli to pay its given facilities in a way that would account for 43% of industry, 31% of services, 27% of construction.

The existence of tax concessions (tax exemption, tax holiday, allowances …) provide the possibility of reducing tax liability via special tax provisions or regulations in tax laws  for some taxpayers, hence government loses  some tax revenues. Therefore, the forgone tax revenues resulting from some of the tax concessions for particular taxpayers, regions and sectors of an economy, are considered as tax expenditures. However, tax expenditures can be considered as a policy instrument for achieving the special economic goals, but do not appear in a regular budget and impose a lot of financial pressure on it.  In the recent decade, this reason causes tax expenditures are estimated and reported in a number of countries. The findings of the present study, which are derived from descriptive-analytic method with emphasis on comparative comparisons of tax expenditures in selected countries, indicate that in all of them, tax expenditures are studied with the aim to increase financial transparency of government and are calculated by using forgone revenue method. In compiling tax expenditures reports of the most countries tax expenditures are defined as a deviation of a specified benchmark tax system and they are presented independently or in related to the regular budgeting process.

The application of fiscal stimulus programs (FSPs) to achieve economic growth requires knowing the source of its funding, because different methods and various taxation bases for financing of the FSPs affect their effectiveness and influence the economy. The objective of this paper is to choose the best tax base to finance FSPs in Iran, according to the lowest distortionary effects on efficiency of increasing government spending. For this purpose, first a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model is designed for Iran. The model consists of three economic factors including the household, domestic firms, and the government as fiscal and monetary authority, and its reliability is checked through the calibration procedure. Then, the multiplier of government spending is estimated within four scenarios for financing government spending. These include the application of tax on income, tax on consumption, a combination of tax on income and tax on consumption (value added tax) and the budget deficit policy. The results show that taxation compared to a budget deficit policy results in decreasing efficiency of the government's fiscal stimulus. However, the reaction of domestic production to the increase in government spending indicate that while a tax on consumption may cover government spending, it has a low negative effect on the efficiency of this fiscal stimulus.

The main objective of the study was to investigate the effect of financial development on the financing of companies listed on the stock exchange, which are related to the automotive-related industries. To this end, the effects of four indicators of financial development, along with control variables such as profitability, liquidity and size of the company, have been investigated in the form of two regression models on two variables related to financing, namely, proportional relationship of both long-term debt and short-term debt to total assets. So that the two models, with the panel data taken from the 50 companies involved in automotive industry and active in stock exchange between the years 2011 to 2016, are assessed using fixed effects. The results show that stock market development has a positive and significant effect on the ratio of long-term debt to total assets. Meanwhile, the effect of the index on the stock market activity is more than the magnitude of the impact of the index relative to its size. However, the effect of the development of the banking sector on this ratio is negative and the effect of the indicator on the banking system activity is more than the magnitude of the impact of the index relative to its size.

Nowadays, improving productivity as the most effective way to achieve growth is raised. Key to improving productivity lies in the measurement and analysis of productivity. Also, Analysis and productivity measurement is practical when productivity changes over time with the productivity indices is showed.
This study is a correlation- regression analysis. At first, production Elasticity coefficients of capital and labor was calculated through estimating a Cobb-Douglas production function using data of 10 pharmaceutical production companies active in the Tehran Stock Exchange during years 1389 to 1393 and panel data with fixed effects . Then, TFP index for these companies is estimated by taking into account the estimated coefficients in the Kendrick index. The index for the years 1394 to 1398 by applying the scenario of continuity of labor, capital and added value for any company is predicted.
TFP during the years 1389 to 1393 show that the two companies Alborz Darou and Luqman is located in the better status and Tehran Chemical Company is located in the lowest position. Forecasting for TFP during the next five years also shows the two Luqman and Alborz Darou and Rayhan are in good condition, but Tehran Chemical Company continues to be exposed to unsuitable conditions.
The findings suggest that Tehran Chemical Company to improve its total factor productivity should seriously pursue productivity cycle management.

Growth of the population and its impact on economic development is a topic that has long attracted the attention of the experts to the economic and community issues. For many years, economists have come to believe that the factor that ultimately determines the nature and development of societies is the quantity and quality of human power or, in other words, human capital of that country. The effective use of human resources in the process of economic and social development is more than anything related to the level of knowledge, effort and creativity, which depends on the physical and mental health of the members. The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of aging on regional and provincial economic growth. For this purpose we have applied the data from statistical center of Iran and the Central Bank in the specified time interval.
The results of model estimation using data panel method during the period of 2011-2014 show that population aging has a negative effect on economic growth. According to the findings of this study, for each unit, the growth rate of the population over 65 years old will decrease to the total population by 0.000455 units of economic growth. Reduction of economic growth will reduce resources and facilities available to people and society as well as reduce the resources and facilities available for public sector and policy making, and will further reduce economic growth

One of the major problems in budgeting is to predict the various kinds of future income precisely as possible. Since tax revenue is very important component in the combination of state income, the present paper considers the forecasting of VAT on gasoline consumption. The main purpose is to achieve an efficient method to forecast gasoline consumption and VAT on it in Iran. Hence, a Hybrid ARIMA- Neural Network model is used to forecast gasoline consumption. After confirming the good performance of this method compared with autoregressive integrated moving average processes(ARIMA), VAT on gasoline consumption is calculated by applying its tax rate. Results indicate that during the years 2013 to 2016, VAT on gasoline consumption will grow by 31.6 percent on average.

The study of human resources flexibility impact on hospitals performance indicators can be effective on hospitals performance improvements. The main purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between human resources flexibility and hospitals’ performance indicators of Islamic Azad University.

The present research was a descriptive-analytical research that has been induced cross-sectionally in 2013. The statistical sampling has been selected randomly, and class assignment among 108 nurses, and supportive employees in five hospitals of Islamic Azad University. Data collection tools was hospital’s performance indicator forms, and flexibility questionnaire based on Right and Esnel. The process of data analysis has been done using SPSS software and by descriptive statistical indicators and correlation tests.

The studied employees had low flexibility. The total studied hospitals were in undesirable situation from the perspective view of bed occupying and bed rotation ratio. Finally, there were not any meaningful relationship between human resources flexibility and hospitals performance indicators.

According to low flexibility of human resources of Islamic Azad University hospitals, the policies should be made in order to coordinate human resources process with human resources flexibility strategies. Furthermore, human resource for the purpose of creating flexibility and hospital subsidiaries of Islamic Azad University performance improvements could be clearly effective in such hospitals situation promotion.

Cigarette and tobacco products in the VAT Law is considered as one of the particular goods and in order to contorlingit’s consumption by price tools، higher tax rates than the standard rate will be levied on it. In this paper، forecasting of revenues of this tax using an approach based on the estimating of tax base has been considered. Thus the first stage، tax base (consumption expenditure) is forecasted for the period 2012 to 2015 and then tax related years by applying the tax rates، will be calculated. In this regard، Because of concerns that policy makers have access to accurate predictions of tax revenues، Supervised neural networks Method to prediction and back-propagation algorithm to train is used. The results indicate that the average annual growth of revenue from value added tax on Cigarette consumption will have 20 percent during the forecasting years.

The main purpose of this article is to examine the effects of fiscal stimulus programs، government spending and tax cuts، on economic growth in Iran. For this purpose، output gap as a variable transition between regimes is defined and estimated using Hodrick – Prescott Filter (HPF) and its stationary is confirmed by augmented Dickey – Fuller test. So using Tsay yest (1998) and data years 1338 to 1391، while the investigation of non-linear (high threshold) fiscal stimulus programs effects and approval it، the threshold value of transmission variable also is estimated، the endogenous. Thus، based on a threshold value (-0. 00149) for the variable transmission، two regimes include: high regime (output gap greater than -0. 00149) and low regime (output gap less than -0. 00149) are considered. Finally، to evaluate the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus programs، threshold vector autoregresive model- assuming the possibility of switching between the two regimes and equality of disturbance terms variance in the two regimes - using R software is estimation and generalized impulse response functions are derived. Results indicate that in two regimes of high and low، reduction tax revenues and increasing government spending multipliers are positive. However، increasing government spending multiplier in low regime is greater than upper and regime reduction tax revenues multiplier in upper regime is greater than low regime. Accordingly، the fiscal stimulus multipliers in Iran is dependent on regime change based on output gap variable.

A basic requirement of a public sector budget is comprehensiveness. Tax expenditure، which is one the government expenditures should be included in the budget process. In general، tax expenditures refer to the special tax provisions that give favorable tax treatment for an activity or a group of taxpayers (e. g. tax allowances، tax deduction، tax incentive، tax exemption، tax credit، tax rate relief and tax deferral) in order to achieve different social، fiscal and economic goals (Nordic working group، 2010:6)، but lead a deviation from a baseline tax system. Accordingly، tax expenditures is the tax revenue forgone resulting from any discriminatory or preferential tax treatment with some taxpayers. Instances of tax expenditures can be different in various countries’ tax laws and contain a range of favorable tax treatment. In this paper، after introducing the normative baseline for Iran’s Value Added Tax system (VAT)، regarding to identifying 17 tax expenditures instances through the provisions of the VAT law، the VAT tax expenditure via the revenue forgone method has been computed by using available data of the 10 instances of VAT expenditures for years from 2009 to 2012. The ratio of VAT expenditures to VAT revenue has had decreasing trend and an average of about 66 per cent during the mentioned years.

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of the business cycle position on the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus Programs and investment in Iran. For this purpose, first business cycle is extracted by applying methods Hodrick – Prescott Filter and data years 1338 to 1391.Then, these years in terms of the business cycle position to two regimes include upper regime and lower regime, is separated and investigated the effects of fiscal stimulus programs shocks (increasing government spending and tax cuts) on economic growth. The investigation have been done by estimating a threshold VAR model including three variables: GDP, government spending and taxes, assuming disturbance term's heteroskedasticity in two regimes and derivation of cumulative and impulse response functions. The results indicate that the effectiveness of the government's fiscal stimulus is dependent on the position of the business cycle. So, fiscalstimulus plan in the form of increaseing government and tax reductions are more efficient in lower and upper regime, respectively. Accordingly, increasing government spending in recession conditions and tax cuts in booming conditions is the best fiscal stimulus plan to stimulate economic growth.

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the composition of consuming expenditures of urban households in Iran under various scenarios of the price of energy carriers. For this purpose، initially، goods and services consumed by urban households are divided into 7 groups and the share of total household expenditures is estimated by applying an almost ideal demand system (AIDS) and the data of the years 2001-2010 for 10 cost deciles. Then، the average of the share of each of these groups is simulated for the years 2011 -2013 under two scenarios of 20 and 85 percentage of the price. The results indicate that using either of these two scenarios does not change the consumption composition of urban households and consumers preferences before relating the price to the needs and priorities. So، if the government plans to impose steep price scenarios، it should follow supporting supplements policies to compensate the decline of consumer welfare.

In this paper، in order to achieve the roadmap for reforming the VAT law and its administrative procedures in Iran، executive components evaluation of the VAT system in 22 countries and its comparison with Iran have been studied. The results suggest that the VAT in Iran is a consumption one and based on the destination principle as in the selected countries. Registration criteria in most of the countries are annual turnover or annual taxable turnover، while in Iran، addition to these criteria، the nature of economic activities also is used. Moreover، VAT standard rate in almost all countries، except Austria، India، is a unit as in the Iran. In the countries without discounted rates in their tax structure، usually there is a wider range of exempted goods and services without credit، and this observed in Iran، Armenia and etc.

Abstract In this Article, Formulating macro-econometric model for Iran's agriculture sector has been considered with emphasis on its subsectors. In this regard, economic sectors is dividend including agriculture, oil and other sectors, and four subgroups agricultural sector has been considered including agriculture, animal husbandry and hunting, forestry and fisheries. Equations related to the supply and demand side of agriculture sector were specificated by goods and services, money, labor, foreign exchange markets in the form of equation 68 (58 behavioral equations and 10 equality) and estimated by cointegration technique in tow position, dynamic an static, using data during years 1981 to 2008. Results indicate that there is a long-term relationships between model variables and coefficients are statistically significant and consistent with theoretical expectations. Validation of estimated model has been investigated using a dynamic simulation as within the sample during period 1981-1999. The results of the Tile index calculation for some variables show that the model has been simulated the trends of endogenous variables close to the actual movement in the whole period. According to findings, exchange policies via increasing the nominal exchange rate led to increase the agricultural export in first years and decrease in last years.