حسین اصغرپور

Numerous studies have investigated the relationship between systematic risk and a wide range of accounting and financial variables. However, most empirical studies have adopted the classical regression method, which entails limitations such as a restricted number of variables to preserve degrees of freedom. To overcome this constraint, the present study employs the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method. Using data from 55 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange between 2010 and 2023, this study examines the influence of 58 different financial and accounting variables on the systematic risk of these companies. The research aims to identify the key variables that significantly contribute to systematic risk. The findings reveal that among the examined variables, company size has the strongest impact on systematic risk, with a positive coefficient. In second and third place, asset turnover and operational efficiency demonstrate significant effects, with the former exhibiting a positive coefficient and the latter a negative coefficient. The fourth influential variable is the ratio of long-term debt-to-equity, showing a positive coefficient. Lastly, the ratio of a company's market value to the book value of its total assets is identified as the fifth influential variable, exerting a negative impact on systematic risk.

Monetary policies and factors influencing liquidity creation are among the key drivers of inflation in the economy. Various elements play a role in the process of liquidity creation and analyzing the impact of each can greatly aid in controlling inflation and shaping macroeconomic policies. This study investigates the effects of different components of liquidity on inflation in Iran during the period 1981-2021, employing Bayesian averaging methods. Using three Bayesian averaging techniques -BACE, BAS, and BMA- the study identifies the main factors influencing inflation. Subsequently, inflation models are estimated using JMA and MALLOWS methods. Robust checks, conducted via machine learning techniques, confirm the findings of JMA and MALLOWS. The results reveal that among the six key factors contributing to liquidity creation, the most significant drivers of inflation are commercial banks overdraft, the money supply, and inflation expectations. Across all methods employed, the findings indicate that the net debt of government to the central bank has a far smaller inflationary effect compared to the aforementioned three factors. Additionally, growth in quasi-money and the central bank's foreign assets exhibit anti-inflationary effects.

The impact of taxation on the economy is multifaceted and plays a critical role in shaping a country's financial landscape. However, inappropriate tax levels and structures can have adverse effects on the behavior of economic variables, including consumer spending, business investment, and growth and employment. In this study, the asymmetric effects of labor taxation on unemployment rates in Iran over the period 1355–1402 (1976–2023) are examined using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach. The estimation results indicate that, in the short term, the effects of both positive and negative tax shocks are insignificant. However, in the long term (after approximately five years), positive labor tax shocks have a significant positive effect on the unemployment rate. Conversely, the results show that the effects of negative shocks are not significant. According to the findings of this study, per capita GDP has a significantly negative impact on the unemployment rate. Moreover, the effects of minimum wage and inflation on the unemployment rate are also negative and statistically significant.

Food safety and health have become a crisis due to the inappropriate and indiscriminate use of Chemical inputs. Considering the importance of the subject, the present research was conducted with the aim of analyzing and identifying the most important factors affecting food security, with an emphasis on organic agriculture in Tabriz County. This research is based on a mixed approach and on practical purposes. The statistical population of this research is the expert agricultural jihad of Tabriz County. In terms of collecting information, it was done in two forms: library and field, using semi-structured interviews. The statistical sample was initially conducted using targeted sampling and then using the snowball method with 16 people until theoretical saturation was reached. Qualitative data analysis was done using the six-step theme model. MAXQDA software was used to code the interviews. The reliability of the interview was checked using the retest method (within the subject). Acceptability and verifiability methods were used to measure validity. The results of the qualitative section included eight main themes, 28 sub-themes, and 62 optional themes. Acceptability and verifiability methods were used to measure validity. The results of the qualitative section included eight main themes, 28 sub-themes, and 62 optional themes. The quantitative part of the research was conducted based on the results of the qualitative part, and a questionnaire was prepared based on 62 selective themes. And in the form of a census, it was provided to 95 people who were directly and indirectly related to the cultivation of crops. To analyze the data from the questionnaire, Structural Equation Modeling with Smart PLS3 software were used. The results showed that the policy dimensions of organic agriculture, economics, health, quality, and standard of living, optimization of production, access, and environment had the greatest impact on food security, respectively.

Branding of organic agricultural products is an essential requirement that plays a vital role in the economic growth and development of societies. In the field of the creation and development of organic agricultural brands, there are many development and driving factors that require careful planning. The present research, has been conducted to identify the driving factors of organic agriculture branding in Tabriz County. This research is mixed and practical and based on the survey. First, based on the Foundations Data Approach, necessary qualitative content was collected, then quantitative data was collected based on survey strategy (questionnaire). The population was specialists and experts who were first using targeted sampling and then using the snowball method; a half structured interview was conducted with 17 people until theoretical saturation was reached. In this method, data analysis was done in three ways: open coding, central coding and selective coding. To check the reliability, transferability and verifiability and validity criteria, were used. Based on the analysis of the qualitative stage, the central and selective branding codes were identified, and a questionnaire was shown in the framework of the matrix of cross-effects between regulatory factors and to evaluate the influence and effectiveness of driving factors, the matrix of cross-effects was conducted, using MicMac software. Based on the results, 16 drivers were identified as the key drivers that had the most impact on branding, among which the media, single organization, financial and credit support, and public sector infrastructure play the most crucial role in branding organic agricultural products.

Water is one of the limiting factors for the development of the country's agricultural economy, and the correct way to allocate this input among different agricultural activities to improve its efficiency is one of the main goals of policymakers in the agricultural sector. Improving water efficiency can be a suitable criterion for identifying an appropriate water allocation policy in each region.This study utilized the Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) technique to investigate the effects of various water-pricing policies in the Ajabshir Plain. Data were collected through simple random sampling and face-to-face interviews with farmers during the agricultural year (1400-1399). Four scenarios were implemented regarding the price and quantity of water consumed for major agricultural products, such as wheat, barley, potato, and onion, as well as major horticultural products, including grape, apple, almond, and walnut.The results indicated that, for all selected products, increasing the water price in the most of applied scenarios led to an increase in cultivation area, reduction, and productivity. Based on the Net Benefit per Drop (NBPD) index, walnut with 187,910 Rials per cubic meter of water, almond with 180,247 Rials per cubic meter of water, and potato with 83,827 Rials per cubic meter of water had the highest index values. According to this study, increasing the price of water and modifying cultivation patterns while considering the principles of sustainable development are effective strategies to enhance water productivity. Additionally, efficient water demand management can help to prevent waste.

One of the most important debates and challenges in macroeconomics is the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on macroeconomic variables. Because exchange rate fluctuations affect the demand of the entire economy through imports; Export and demand of money and change in the foreign exchange reserves of the central bank, and the supply side of an economy affect the cost of imported intermediate goods channel, so the result of these two effects on production depends on the initial economic conditions of the country.Exchange rate impulses are of particular importance due to their adverse effects on the performance of economic variables and economic stability, because they cause uncertainty in the relative price trend, growth in production costs, decrease in profits, increase in risk in production, disruption in decision-making processes and deprivation of the ability to plan and The motivation to invest in economic activities is reduced and due to the data communication in economic activities, production in all economic activities is subject to the same or different degrees of negative effects of the exchange rate.Exchange rate is considered a key variable in the economy of any country, and how it affects other economic variables, including GDP, is one of the important challenges in macroeconomics. Exchange rate fluctuation as a sign of instability and uncertainty affects all important economic variables.

In this regard, the main goal of this research is to investigate the asymmetric effects of the exchange rate on the gross domestic product in the selected country of Iran.

For this purpose, in this research, seasonal time series data of Iran's economy during the period (2006-2020) and in the framework of econometric models have been analyzed using the quantile regression method.

Considering the importance of the issue in policy making and the possibility of influencing production through the exchange rate, it is therefore necessary for the government in economic planning to the conditions of recession and economic prosperity of the country. andconsider more monitoring of the money market and reducing the level of fluctuations and currency shocks caused by speculation in order to increase the country's stability and stability.Exchange rate fluctuations are effective on the country's production and demand growth and some other variables; In the way that today the discussion is about the optimal amount of fluctuations. Therefore, the choice of foreign exchange policies according to theeconomic conditions, in such a way as to lead to the establishment of a suitable exchange rate system, can not only be a way to achieve growth and development, but in turn, it also affects other macro factors will be.The distinction of this article is with the studies done in the estimation method and scope of the time and place period and in the conditions of economic stagnation and prosperity. As mentioned in the rest of the article, many studies have been conducted to investigate the effects of exchange rates on production in Iran, regardless of asymmetry.The asymmetric effects of currency shocks, in addition to creating instability and economic impulses, can simultaneously and intermittently affect society in other dimensions of society, such as decreasing trust and increasing corruption and bribery. In these two and a half decades, the economy has faced many monetary expansions and inflation and currency shocks.Governments are interested in identifying appropriate solutions to achieve macroeconomic goals. One of the most important macro goals is production at the level of full employment and stability and economic growth. Given that the exchange rate and shocks from it areone of the most important factors affecting production, therefore, the empirical knowledge of economic officials on the relationship between currency shocks and production is of great importance in policy making.The importance of this becomes more apparent when the government or economic officials want to make the right decision in business periods and in accordance with exchange rate fluctuations.The results showed that value has a symmetrical effect on production. Currency values and the ratio of capital creation to gross domestic product in several different cases (quartiles) and deciles have a positive and significant effect on production, and it is possible to increase investment and decrease the value of the national currency in Iran.The effect of the variables of capital formation ratio on GDP, the degree of openness of the economy, the consumer price index on production in different quantiles (quartiles) and deciles is not asymmetric on production, so that in different quantiles of production (recession and economic prosperity), the reaction of production to these variables, Although They are different in appearance, but there is no statistically significant difference. Therefore, economic policy makers can use currency policies to influence production regardless of the issue of asymmetry in different business periods (recession and prosperity).

Experimental findings showed that the consumer price index and the degree of openness of the economy had a negative and significant effect on production in different quantities. Therefore, economic policy makers can control inflation in order to increase production.
Experimental evidence showed that although the effects of the variables of capital formation ratio on GDP and the degree of openness of the economy and the consumer price index and exchange rate on production were significant and their coefficients were slightlydifferent in different quantiles. But the tests of asymmetry of the coefficients of the variables It showed that the effects of all variables on production are not significantly different, in other words, the effects of the variables on production were symmetrical.

One of the important problems in examining economic growth is equating the frequency of variables affecting production, which approach leads to the loss of information on explanatory variables that have a high frequency compared to economic growth. In this study, by using the MIDAS and MIDAS-VAR method, the effect of Tehran Stock market performance on the economic growth of Iran during the period of 2011 to 2021 has been investigated for quarterly and monthly data. The results of the estimates indicate the in the first month of the seasons when the number of stock market booms was high, stock returns had a very positive and significant impact on economic growth. This positive effect decreased with the increase in the number of recessions in the third months and in the second month of every quarter when the number of recessions in the stock market was high, and this had a negative effect on economic growth. Also, the empirical findings indicate that the intensity of the influence of stock returns was stronger in periods of recession than in periods of prosperity. Therefore, the most important policy recommendation of the current research is that in order to increase economic growth, it is necessary for economic policy makers to provide the basis for the growth and development of the stock market and increase its efficiency by adopting appropriate policies, and also prevent recession and its prolongation in the stock market.

The main objective of the present study is to investigate the international spillover effect of US monetary policies on bank lending for 34 upper-middle-income countries during the period of 2000-2021. For this purpose, Panel Smooth Transition Regression model (PSTR) method has been used to estimate the model of this research. Based on the estimation results, the model includes two regimes and its transition variable is the monetary policy rate of the United States, which is not significant in the first regime and is negative and significant in the second regime. So, with the reduction of interest rates and the implementation of expansionary monetary policies in the United States, the lending rate in the studied countries increases; and vice versa. Based on the results obtained and the lack of independence of monetary policies in the studied countries, it is recommended that the countries make their internal economic conditions more stable than the external conditions with targeted policies and somehow secure their economy against external shocks.

The present research was conducted with the aim of identifying and analyzing economic factors affecting the acceptance of organic agriculture in Tabriz County.

The population of this study consists of producers and consumers of Tabriz County. The community of producers in the County is composed of 28 person. Due to their limited number, they were studied in full. In the consumer community, the sample size was estimated to be 384 person, but to achieve better results, 391 questionnaires were completed. In order to analyze the data, structural equation modeling was used in Smart PLS software and one-sample t-tests and Friedman in SPSS software.

The results of the measurement model indicate that the loads of the observed agents with their hidden variables have significant values, and the observed agents have measured their hidden variables well. Also, there is a significant structural relationship between price perception, providing support facilities, product distribution, product preparation method, product price, product features, product quality, and willingness to pay. The obtained values of T, the average and the upper and lower limits of the factors affecting the acceptance of organic agriculture from the producers' point of view, had higher values than the standard set. The results of Friedman's test showed that the price of the product has the highest importance and the provision of support facilities has the lowest importance.

Comparing and examining the views of two producer and consumer groups shows that the economic dimension has had a major effect on the adoption of organic agriculture. Also, factors such as having high prices for products, costs and prices offered for a specific brand, an appropriate marketing system, etc. are among the factors that have affected the economic aspect of adopting organic agriculture.

Increasing urbanization, population growth and the social, economic and environmental problems resulting from them, along with the growth and expansion of information and communication technology - as the main axis of transformation in the world - is the main feature of the 21st century. To deal with the challenge of cities, the concept of smart city has been presented. Good urban governance is presented as a prerequisite for a smart city by national and international organizations. Therefore, the idea of urban management and governance has been removed from its traditional state and improved. In other words, good and smart governance involves an open dialogue between citizens and city officials through an active ICT platform. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to answer the question that with the new changes in the field of technology in the cities of the country, especially the metropolises, what is the state of good governance indicators in the studied metropolis? And is the urban management in Tabriz metropolis able to improve the desirable urban governance indicators in line with the smart city indicators? The answers to the research questions have been done by using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. The indicators of smart city and good urban governance have been extracted using questionnaire tools and statistics available in statistical yearbooks and analyzed in Python programming environment. The results show that the overall score of good governance in Tabriz metropolis is 0.436. Among the five indicators introduced by the United Nations, the effectiveness index is the most favorable and the equality index is the most unfavorable among other indicators.

Environmental quality is influenced by various factors, one of the significant factors is monetary and financial policies. Therefore, the present study deals with the effects of monetary and financial policies on environmental pollutants in Iran using a non-linear approach during the years 1980-2020. The results of the study show that in the short term of carbon dioxide emission in the previous period, the economic growth rate, the legal reserve rate and the ratio of taxes to GDP have a positive effect on the emission of environmental pollutants, and government spending has a negative effect on carbon dioxide emission. It has carbon. Non-linear effects of carbon dioxide emissions in the previous period, positive economic growth rate shock, positive economic growth rate shock in the previous period, negative economic growth rate shock in the previous period, positive government expenditure shock, negative government expenditure shock, negative legal reserve rate shock, The positive shock of the ratio of taxes to GDP and the negative shock of the ratio of taxes to GDP had a positive effect on carbon dioxide emissions, and the negative shock of government spending in the previous period and the negative shock of the legal reserve rate had a negative effect on carbon dioxide emissions in the short term. Is. In the long term, the emission of carbon dioxide pollutant in the previous period, the negative shock of the government expenditure in the previous period and the positive shock of the legal reserve rate had a negative effect on the emission of carbon dioxide, and the positive shock of the economic growth rate of the previous period, the negative shock of the economic growth rate, the negative shock of the rate Legal reserves, the positive shock of the ratio of taxes to GDP and the negative shock of the ratio of taxes to GDP have had a positive effect on the emission of carbon dioxide.

According to the economic literature, the exchange rate is one of the important channels of money transfer, so that changes in the exchange rate play an important role in creating the competitiveness and uncertainty of the economy. This can put monetary policy changes on inflation and production growth under different conditions in different conditions. In this regard, this article has investigated the role of exchange rate in the effect of money on inflation and gross domestic product growth by using the seasonal time series data of 1370-1400 and using the time-varying auto-correlation parameter method (TVP-VAR). The results of this study show that the lower the variance of the exchange rate growth, the more effective the monetary policy is in curbing inflation. On the other hand, if the average growth of the exchange rate is close to the growth of the monetary base, then the monetary policy will increase production. Also, if the exchange rate grows more than the monetary base, inflation increases and GDP growth decreases. The results of this research confirm that the growth of the monetary base more than the economic capacity leads to an increase in inflation and a decrease in production growth, and this inflationary process leads to an increase in the exchange rate. In such a structure of the economy, where high money printing is a prominent feature, the suppression of the exchange rate provides the basis for increasing the currency jump, and the currency jump is an important factor in strengthening the recessionary inflation in the economy. Therefore, the policy recommendation of the present study is to reduce the growth of the monetary base and not to manipulate the exchange rate

Iran's economy as an oil exporting country is highly dependent on intermediate and imported products. The volume of foreign trade plays a significant role in changes in economic growth and inflation rate. The trend of trade volume in Iran's economy indicates that various shocks have always been imposed on the economy. These shocks are significant from two perspectives. The first is that the size of the trade shocks was not the same, for example, in some cases, a positive shock was imposed on the economy due to the increase in oil revenues, while at other times, Iran's economy has experienced a negative shock due to various sanctions. The second important matter is that the intensity of trade shocks has been different in different time periods. Meanwhile, oil revenues have recorded significant figures between 2005 and 2013, but Iran has experienced a negative shock due to economic sanctions. Macroeconomics literature has indicated that the way of determining the exchange rate has an undeniable effect on the economy. The most important feature of the exchange rate in relation to trade openness and macroeconomic variables is the management of external shocks.  Absorption of external shocks of flexible exchange regimes means that, when the real exchange rate or relative prices change with the external shock, automatic changes in the nominal exchange rate and flexible regimes make the necessary changes in the real exchange rate. Therefore, the effects of external shocks caused by the high volume of foreign trade can be reduced by a flexible exchange regime. In the system of flexible regimes, the negative shock causes the domestic demand and the sales of companies to decrease due to the increase in the exchange rate. In an open economy with a large number of producers, competitiveness increases and leads to the approximate compensation of the effect of the decrease in the domestic demand of the country. Therefore, in an open economy, flexible regimes absorb more shocks than fixed regimes. Conversely, in a closed economy where non-tradable goods dominate, fixed exchange rate regimes are better.  Because they don't pay real depreciation rent. These concepts show that in relatively open countries, flexible regimes work better as a shock absorber and lead to better economic stability, and when the degree of trade volume is small, a fixed exchange regime leads to greater financial and economic stability.  This study deals with the importance of the exchange rate channel in influencing the volume of foreign trade on Iran's economic growth and inflation.

Iran's political and economic conditions have led to the imposition of several structural failures on the country's economy, and failure to pay attention to these conditions can lead to incorrect conclusions about Iran's economic facts. Therefore, due to changes in conditions, structural failures and cyclical changes in time series, it is better to use a model that can take these facts into account. TVP model can provide an estimate for each year by identifying the conditions of each period. The obtained coefficient, while specifying the positive and negative effects of the explanatory parameters on the dependent variable, also shows the intensity of the coefficients.

In this research, the role of exchange rate changes in influencing the volume of foreign trade on Iran's economic growth and inflation has been investigated.  A TVP-VAR time series model is estimated for the period 1972-2021. The results show that with an increase in the volume of trade, if the exchange rate increases, the economic growth increases and the inflation rate decreases. While with the increase in the volume of trade, if the suppression of the exchange rate is on the agenda, the inflation will increase sharply and the economic growth will decrease 

According to the inverse effect of trade on inflation and the direct relationship between the exchange rate and inflation, it is recommended to expand the volume of foreign trade and control the exchange rate in order to curb the inflation rate. Also, with the knowledge of the positive role of the managed floating exchange regime in influencing trade on economic growth and the negative role of the suppressed exchange regime in influencing it, it is recommended to avoid the fixed exchange regime as much as possible.

The main objective of this paper is to determine the important factors affecting poverty and income inequality in rural areas of Iran. For this purpose, it has been attempted to evaluate the significant factors influencing poverty and income inequality in rural areas of Iran using Bayesian econometric methods over the period 1363-1400. In this context, the Gini coefficient and the ratio of the expenses of the top two deciles (the rich) to the bottom two deciles (the poor) have been utilized as indicators of income inequality, while the share of food expenses in total household expenses has been used as a measure of poverty.The empirical results of income inequality models confirm the Kuznets hypothesis in rural areas of Iran. According to this hypothesis, the impact of per capita income on both income distribution indicators follows an inverted U-shaped curve. Additionally, the results show that variables such as inflation rate, exchange rate and average age of the rural population had a negative and significant influence on income distribution in rural areas. On the other hand, variables like degree of urbanization, degree of economic openness, and growth rate of bank facilities allocated to the agricultural sector do not significantly affect income distribution.The empirical results of the poverty model (Engel coefficient) indicate that among the variables considered in the model, exchange rate, inflation and aging of the population have positive and significant effect on rural poverty. Conversely, variables such as average age, economic openness, and urbanization have a negative and significant impact on rural poverty. The growth rate of bank facilities allocated to the agricultural sector and per capita income of the agricultural sector do not significantly affect poverty levels.

Consumption as the most stable variable of GDP, plays an important role in the economy. According to consumption theories, the form of the consumption function in the short and long run changes the coefficients of macro-variables multiplier, This has an effect on how macro policies affect economic variables. In this regard, in the present study, an attempt has been made to empirically test the hypothesis of the ratch effect of Duesenberry consumption using annual time series data of the Iranian economy during the period 1976-2020. For this purpose, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), BMA_ADL and deep learning method LSTM (Long short term memory) has been used. results indicate that this hypothesis is not consistent for Iran. In other words, empirical evidence shows that, contrary to Dusenberry's theory, the slope of the consumption function in the short term is higher than the slope of the long-run function. As a result, the Multiplier coefficient of demand management policies in the short run is more than the long run. This pattern of consumption behavior can be called the precautionary behavior of households, which originates from Iran's economic conditions.

The main purpose of this research is to investigate the important economic factors affecting the exchange rate pass-through to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of Iran during the period 1993 to 2020. In this regard, by using the two methods of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and weighted average least squares (WALS), which have been widely considered in recent years, the important factors affecting the exchange rate transition and the order of importance of these variables in Iran are determined, as well as, Random Forest (RF) algorithm has been used to determine the importance and ranking of identified factors.The results of BMA and WALS methods indicate that the variables of government size, level of development, economic uncertainty, and economic conditions are among the most important macroeconomic factors affecting the exchange rate. According to the research findings, controlling the effects of the exchange rate increase on consumer prices (exchange rate pass-through), reducing the size of the government, controlling economic uncertainties, improving economic conditions, and improving the level of development is an inevitable necessity in Iran, Therefore, The most important policy recommendations of this research are to control the effects of the exchange rate increase on the consumer price index in Iran

The main objective of this study is to investigate the interactive effects of monetary and macroprudential policies on the stability of Iranian banking system. For this purpose, the effects of monetary and macroprudential policies and interactive of these two policies have been evaluated using the annual time series data of 24 private and government banks of Iran during the period of 2007-2019 and using generalized moments method (GMM).The results show that the monetary policies have significantly caused the instability of the banking system, and the macroprudential policies have significantly increased the stability of the banks. Also, empirical findings of the research show that, the interaction of monetary policies and macroprudential has a positive and significant effect on the stability of banks. This result indicates that the implementation of macro reserve policies in Iran has caused the effects of monetary policies to be modified on the instability of banks. Hence, it is necessary for the economic policy makers to consider these interactions when designing monetary and macro prudential policy interventions. In fact, economic policymakers are advised to use macroprudential policies to strengthen the stability of the banking system when implementing expansionary monetary policies.

The main purpose of this study is to investigate how production growth is affected by liquidity growth, exchange rate growth and inflation. Considering that many macro variables affecting economic growth have high frequencies compared to economic growth; Ignoring this problem causes the loss of information and the lack of recognition of the exact relationships between variables. In this study, an attempt has been made to evaluate the monthly effects of Exchange rate growth, Inflation and liquidity growth on Iran’s seasonal economic growth by using MIDAS and MF-VAR with Iran’s economic time series data during the period of 1390-1400. The empirical findings of the research indicate that the growth of all three variables of price, exchange rate and real liquidity initially have a positive effect on economic growth, but then lead to a decrease in economic growth. In this way, the results show that if the real liquidity growth, inflation and exchange rate growth are about 0.12%, 1.93% and 2.02% per month respectively, the economic growth will be strengthene, and if the monthly growth exceeds the mentioned values, it will have a negative effect on the growth of Iran’s GDP.

The present research aimed to investigate the relationship between Iran’s stock price index and nine macroeconomic variables during 1996–2019. Three methods were employed to reduce uncertainty, namely three Bayesian averaging methods (BMA, BMS, BAS), weighted average least squares (WALS), and Vselect. The experimental results of the Bayesian methods and WALS showed that the exchange rate and the consumer price index are the most important variables among the nine macroeconomic variables considered in the model. Moreover, the results revealed that the exchange rate has a minor impact on the stock price index, while the stock price index exerts a substantial effect on the exchange rate. The findings of Vselect validated the conclusion that these two variables are the primary drivers of stock price estimation and are present in nearly all predictive modelsIntroductionThe harmonization of financial markets with the macroeconomic sector is crucial for stabilizing the economy and achieving the adopted policies. In recent years, several significant studies have been conducted on financial markets, particularly the stock market, highlighting their pivotal role in allocating capital resources efficiently in advanced economies. Empirical evidence supports the view that financial markets have evolved in tandem with all sectors of the economy. Therefore, it can be argued that financial markets constitute one of the most vital components of any country’s economy. Throughout history, major economic crises have resulted from the collapse of financial markets, which underscores their critical significance. The financial market comprises several components, with the stock market being a crucial part. Economists view it as a barometer of a country’s economic health due to its ability to reflect macroeconomic asset prices more accurately than other markets. The uncertainty surrounding stock prices in stock markets is a significant aspect of the entire economy, capable of generating and disrupting unsustainable growth. For investors, the risk of participating in an investment is a crucial consideration. To comprehend total risk, it is beneficial to examine two aspects: systematic and non-systematic risk.The present study aimed to examine the impact of economic factors on stock market prices in Iran with the high degree of risk involved. There is a consensus among economists that asset prices are responsive to economic news, and that stock prices and economic factors are strongly interconnected. Thus, this research investigated the potential impact of macroeconomic factors on the Iranian stock price index from 1996 to 2019 using Bayesian averaging methods, followed by an analysis of the effect size of each variable through the weighted average least square method (WALS).Materials and MethodsResearchers often draw conclusions based on the assumptions of their selected model, assuming that it can accurately predict real-world situations. However, this approach may overlook true uncertainty, leading to non-conservative conclusions. Statistical models comprise two parts: variables and assumptions, and the model selected based on these assumptions to estimate the variables. Uncertainty exists at both levels. For instance, a researcher estimating the impact of influential factors on an independent variable may choose a model based on their assumptions and report their estimates. But is this the best answer? Another researcher with different assumptions may opt for a different model with lower variance and error. In other words, numerous models may fit the sample data equally well but with different coefficient estimates and standard errors. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a robust method that aims to remove uncertainty. It assesses the robustness of results to alternative specifications by computing posterior distributions for coefficients and models. This study employed three models of BMA, BMS, and BAS, using various averaging methods to verify the reliability of the results. Moreover, two non-Bayesian methods, namely WALS and Vselect, were used to select the best variables for predicting the optimal models.ConclusionThis study tried to investigate the relationship between Iran’s stock market index and nine macroeconomic variables during 1996–2019 by using the models that identify and limit uncertainty. The models selected include three Bayesian averaging models as well as WALS and Vselect which were used to verify the results obtained. The results indicated that only two variables, the exchange rate and consumer price index, are statistically significant when assuming a uniform distribution of the prior distribution function, which is the assumption of the BMS method. The remaining variables are not statistically significant. Furthermore, the estimates derived from the BMA and BAS models were quite similar, with the exception of less important variables. However, the similarity decreased in the BAS method. Moreover, WALS and Vselect confirmed the results obtained from all the three methods.

In fact, the press changes with the change of events, and it is the voice that addresses public opinion. Its only weapon is language, in prose or poetry, in order to convey what is in its cover to the people. Since its spread in the Arab countries, we have seen its impact on contemporary Arabic literature, especially in Egypt. In the sense that it led traditional literature from some restrictions in its literary formulation, weight and rhymes to liberation and renewal, whether in its structure or in its topics. This is represented in the complete works of Mustafa Lotfi Al-Manfaluti, Muhammad Abdul Qadir Al-Mazni, Taha Hussein and Tawfiq Al-Hakim. The research seeks to address the extent of influence and vulnerability between journalism and literature, especially Egyptian prose, depending on the analytical descriptive approach. Among the findings of the research is the detection of shifting issues in the literary style, reviewing the role of newspapers in literature and its status. Also, among its other facts is that the literary subject has played an important role in the reach of journalists, in addition to the classical language used in writing literature in the books of those whose names were mentioned above.

Nowadays the world is facing challenges that are caused by the transformations resulting from the progress of science and technology and the emergence of new needs.the smart city model is a new solution that fits the advancement of ICT and meets the new needs of citizens in their urban life.This forces urban planners to review and rethink their actions. This research seeks to identify the main and key factors in the future of the smart city in Tabriz Metropolis. To do so, an attempt has been made to identify the key and effective variables in the future of the smart city of Tabriz and its compliance based on the existing goals in smart cities and the planned goals of intelligence on the horizon of 1420. Accordingly, based on the opinions of experts in this field, 55 indicators and primary factors of intelligence were localized for the metropolis of Tabriz and analyzed using Mic Mac software. Then, 16 key factors were introduced using the cross-impact matrix. The findings show that the dimensions of smart economy and smart mobility have the largest contribution as the main variables in these categories and they will play a greater impact on the smart future of Tabriz Metropolis. Based on the results, it should also be noted that achieving a smart city in Tabriz metropolis requires the formulation of a smart city strategic document along with cross-sectoral, integrated, and expert planning. It is worth noting that, in order to create and realize a smart city, an adequate foundation and infrastructure must be established in the society, so it is necessary for the officials of the Tabriz metropolis to take appropriate measures to make it a smart city

Controlling inflation and economic growth is one of the most important economic goals that governments seek to achieve through tools such as monetary policy. To achieve their policy goals, monetary policymakers need to have a careful assessment of the effectiveness of monetary policy in the short and long term. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of asymmetric shocks of monetary policy on inflation and real output variables in the period 1994:1-2016: 4 using the NARDL technique. The results of the study showed that only positive liquidity shock has a positive and significant effect on GDP and its negative shock has no significant effect on GDP in the long run. Also, according to the results, in the short run, positive and negative liquidity shocks do not have a significant effect on production, but short-term positive liquidity shocks after a break have a positive effect on GDP. Accordingly, the asymmetric effects of positive and negative monetary policies on economic growth are accepted. ....

In order to implement a successful monetary policy, monetary authorities must have a correct assessment of the time and extent of the impacts of this policy on economic variables in different conditions. In this article, using the quarterly data of Iran's Central Bank, the contribution of different channels of monetary policy effects on the production of manufacturing sector and the general level of prices in the period of 1994-2008 will be determined. For this purpose, while using the Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Method (MSVAR), two endogenous and exogenous models are estimated under two regimes of zero and one. Considering Iran's Bank based financing system, it is expected that the credit channel will play an active role in transferring money to the production sector. The results of this research confirmed the effect of monetary policy on production and inflation through the credit channel in both regimes. Also, the results confirm that currency rate and housing channels have been effective in transferring the effect of monetary policies to production and the general level of prices. Considering the high cost of housing rent in Iran, it was found that housing price fluctuations in the regime zero have more inflationary effects than in the regime one. Compared to other channels, the stock price channel has had less impact on the transmission of monetary policies on the level of production and inflation. According to the above results, it is necessary to pay more attention to currency stability, and in addition, pay more attention to the capital market as a suitable tool for directing resources to productive activities.

Considering the limited available resources, in the field of regional economy, knowing the characteristics and economic advantages of each region provides the possibility of better planning in order to achieve development goals. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze the comparative advantage of different economic sectors in Guilān province in 2014, 2016 and 2018, analyze the competitive advantage of sectors and determine the value added of sectors in Guilān province compared to the country during 2014-2016. For this purpose, the basic economy model and spatial coefficient index and shift share model were used. The results of the study showed that Guilān province in 2016 and 2018 has a relarive advantage in the agricultural sector and is in the field of economic activity and has a potential advantage for economic growth. Sectors related to agriculture, construction, wholesale, retail, vehicle and goods repair, food and shelter service activities, administrative and support services, public affairs and municipal services, and education have a competitive advantage and have undergone an upward trend in the years under study. The results of the share change model show that in the sector related to agriculture and service activities related to financial and insurance activities, Guilan province has the best performance in the country, but in the sector related to professional and scientific activities, the country has a better performance than Guilān province.