حمید زمان زاده

The effect of exchange rate change on prices, which is known as exchange rate pass-through in economic literature, has been one of the important factors of inflationary pressures in Iran's economy. In order to estimate the degree of exchange rate pass-through, a vector error correction model for Iran's macroeconomics with two long run structural relationships including the long run price relationship and the long run real production relationship. Considering that during the recent decades, Iran's economy has mainly witnessed the multiple exchange rate system, the estimation of the exchange rate pass-through based solely on the unofficial exchange rate and without considering the preferential rates cannot be relied upon. For this reason, the estimated model includes three exchange rates (the unofficial exchange rate, and tow preferential exchange rate (Nima and Mobadele) to exchange rate pass-through can be estimated separately for each rate. The results indicate that the degree of exchange rate pass-through for the preferential exchange rates (Mobadele and Nima) in the long run (six years) is equal to 8/9% and 8/4% and in the case of fixing preferential rates, the degree of exchange rate pass-through will decrease from 2/46% to 6/30%. The results also indicate that although the fixing of preferential exchange rates leads to a decrease in the degree of exchange rate pass-through during the stabilization period, but it will increase in the same proportion during the adjustment period of the preferential exchange rates.

One of the most important monetary policy targets is price stability. In the framework of inflation targeting, the central banks use the policy interest rate to implement their monetary policy, especially in the last decade. In the Iranian economy, there are various discussions about the effectiveness of the policy interest rate to guide the inflation rate, and it is argued that since the channels of the policy interest rate effect are incomplete in the Iranian economy, this tool isn’t efficient enough to guide the inflation rate. This study investigates the quantitative effect of the policy interest rate change on macro variables and evaluates the effectiveness of the policy interest rate tool in the implementation of inflation targeting, by a vector error correction model for Iran's macroeconomics. The results indicate that despite the shortcomings of the interest rate influencing channels on macroeconomic variables, the increase in the policy interest rate has strong anti-inflationary effects in such a way that an increase of 1 percentage point in the policy interest rate causes a 1.3 percentage point decrease in inflation after 24 months. Therefore, the results indicate that the policy interest rate in Iran's economy, despite the shortcomings of influence channels, is efficient enough to guide the inflation rate

One of the most important factors affecting the creation of liquidity in Iran's banking network is the capital adequacy ratio. Based on this, the present study aims to investigate the role of capital adequacy requirements on money creation in the banking system based on Bal III committee as well as the effects of other variables such as inflation, exchange rate, non-performing loans, and profitability of the banking network in Iran in the period of 2010:1-2021:1 with seasonal frequency using structural vector autoregression model. The results show that a positive shock to inflation, exchange rate, and profitability of banks increase money creation. But, a positive shock to capital adequacy ratio and non-performing loans has not had a significant effect on money creation. This finding indicates that the banking system has practically not reacted to changes in capital adequacy due to the lack of executive guarantee in applying the capital adequacy requirements. And as a result, capital adequacy requirements have not been able to play their role in restricting money creation. Also, the results show that the creation of bank money in Iran is mainly influenced by macro-level variables so that inflation and exchange rate respectively played the most important role in explaining the changes in the creation of bank money.

Liquidity , as the most important variable of the money market , has a significant role in economic performance from various aspects and therefore it is important to identify the factors affecting liquidity. Considering that one of the channels to increase liquidity is loans paid by the banking network and the effective role of capital adequacy ratio in the payment of bank loans, in the present study we investigate the effect of capital adequacy ratio on volume of liquidity and its asymmetric effects in 2008:2 -2020:1 by using a nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lags model.The results show that increasing the capital adequacy ratio has a reducing effect on the volume of liquidity and compliance with the regulation on the capital adequacy ratio can be one of the key tools to curb the growth of liquidity in the Iranian economy. In addition, the effect of changing the capital adequacy ratio on liquidity is asymmetric. According to the results of the Wald test, increasing the capital adequacy ratio has a stronger effect on liquidity than reducing it.The results also showed that the increase in the amount of non performing loans of the banking network through the channel of reducing the lending capacity of the banking network in both short-term and long-term periods leads to a decrease in liquidity in the country. The increase in the exchange rate has also led to an increase in liquidity in the country in short-term and with two lags. Also, in order to curb the growth of liquidity, an increase in government expenditures should be financed through an increase in tax revenues, not borrowing from the banking network or the use of sovereignty revenues.

The Gam Sukuk is one of the newest innovations of the Iranian monetary and financial system in financing the real sector of the economy. This new financial instrument can boost the availability of working capital finance for Iranian firms. The Gam Sukuk provides the base for using the potentials of the private sector and capital market to finance the economic businesses.    The main question of the current research is: “What are the jurisprudential foundations and operational model of using Gam Sukuk based on the views of the Iranian Central Bank Shariah Board? Moreover, what are the other related solutions? The results obtained through an analytical-descriptive approach show that based on the Shariah Board Fatwa, the Daman (guarantee) contract can be used for issuing this kind of Sukuk. In this regard, banks will have two roles: issuing Sukuk and guaranteeing that, and can receive separate fees for these duties. Also, the Gam Sukuk can be issued based on two other Islamic contracts which are Sulh and Taweez. When these two contracts are used to justify Gam Sukuk, the bank's obligations appear as on-balance sheet items and hence the bank is considered a debtor. However, in the Daman (guarantee) contract the bank's obligations are off-balance sheet items and the bank is not viewed as a debtor. This is one of the merits of Gam model.