حمید ضیایی پرور

The present study was conducted with the aim of providing a model for managing the news of large fires in the country. The research method is mixed using quantitative and qualitative approaches. The statistical population in the qualitative section includes news editors of radio and television during the crisis, spokespersons and agents involved in the management and operations of the Tehran Fire Department, the secretary of the government information council at that time, and communication specialists and media editors during that crisis. have been. In addition, the statistical population related to the quantitative section includes all the news that were published in the media during the two weeks of Plasko crisis (January 30, 2015 to February 13, 2015) and includes more than 100 thousand news. In order to collect samples in the qualitative section, the purposeful sampling method has been used. In-depth interviews were used to collect data in the present research in the qualitative part and in order to take advantage of the opinions and views of experts and practitioners. Also, content analysis and quantitative content analysis methods were used to analyze qualitative and quantitative data. The findings of the present research indicate that the official media have strengths in relation to the crisis that arose in the Plasko incident, such as giving priority to the Plasko incident and highlighting the news in a way, the local-national view of the Plasko incident, the amount of time allocated It was given to the incident and to express the news related to Plasko accident in a simple and unambiguous manner. However, the national media has fundamental weaknesses in relation to the Plasko building incident. Being event-oriented, not presenting the news in the form of a complete news package and being limited to cold pieces of news, giving more value to the news value of novelty, highlighting the "where" and "when" news elements and not paying attention to the "why" and "how" elements. Paying more attention to hard news and not paying attention to soft news, using the tactic of official sources and not relying enough on the use of the news tactic of publishing secret information, a positive orientation towards the Plasko incident and not respecting news neutrality, not highlighting the government, officials, and authorities Judiciary, Tehran Municipality and Parliament and paying less attention to their responsibilities regarding the Plasco incident and less coverage of the government and government bodies in this incident and somehow removing responsibility from them havebeen the most important weaknesses of the news coverage of the Plasco building incident.

The purpose of this paper is to answer “Which scenarios and alternative futures can be assumed when new technologies would be employed in the book publication cycle in Iran?” This investigation focuses on the stakeholders’ readiness to face changes emerging from new technologies.

The paper benefits from a mix of methods such as reviewing and analysing global trends of new technologies through documentary research, environmental scanning, organising expert panels and brainstorming to determine uncertainty through participatory action learing. Also, it  exmines the extent of impressiveness and susceptibility of the parameters involving in book publication cycle in Iran through cross impact analysis and producing alternative futures through scenario planning.

Five scenarios were genrated. The scenarios were created based on the two major concurrent parameters which the experts mentioned as the most effective and susceptible ones. The first parameter “concept of technology” is a binary thought of technophobia and technophilia in which a group finds technology an instrument for development and a better situation, while the other sees it as a hindering obstacle., The second parameter “government’s intervention” also another binary situation. in which the government can play a minimal and maximal intervention in the cycle. Based on these binaries, the scenarios were panned.

Based on an analysis of the scenarios and the role of key parameters using foresight logica number of recommendations are made aiming to achieve a preferable situation for the book publication cycle. In addition, ithe paper tried to determine the role of major stakeholders in each of the book publication cycles and their cross impacts to create a preferable future.The experts emphasized that, historically and sociologically speaking, no one can put an end to the role of the state in formation of nation,but its role as governance and administration can be leadership and facilitation.