خدیجه نصراللهی

In the last decade, attention has been paid to the issue of foreign direct investment. Foreign direct investment is the most common form of capital flow towards developing countries, which affects the economic growth and macroeconomic stability of the country (Metaxas & Kechagia, 2016).The government of Iran has spent a lot of resources in order to attract foreign investment, but despite the implementation of supportive policies and the approval of numerous laws in order to remove obstacles in the business environment, less than expected success has been achieved in the field of foreign investment. According to the UNCTAD report (2021), Iran's share of the total amount of foreign direct investment in the world was equal to 0.09 percent. By examining the existing literature, it is clear that the interaction of the actors involved in the issue of foreign investment (foreign investor, government and people) and its effect on policy outcomes has been neglected, which can lead to less success. Iran should play an important role in attracting foreign direct investment.David Cruz et al. (2023) in a study investigated the relationship between corruption and foreign direct investment in natural resources with emphasis on the role of recession and economic crisis in Latin American and Caribbean countries during the period of 1995-2020 using the panel approach. The results shown that high levels of corruption lead to a decrease in foreign direct investment in natural resources, which is a confirmation of the hypothesis of greasing wheels in investment literature.In this aspect, the present study is innovative, which aims to highlight the government's lack of attention to two basic issues in Iran. The first issue is the government's lack of attention to the interests of actors involved in foreign investment. The second issue is the presence of complex bureaucratic obstacles in the country.This study aims to analyze the decision-making process of foreign investors by using game theory when choosing Iran as an investment destination. In this study, the production function is considered with three capital inputs, the amount of bribery and provision of benefits. The reason for applying the third input (provision of benefits) in the production function is due to the fact that many activities are implemented. In the sense that their success requires the interaction of many players and adaptation to local conditions (Andrews et al, 2017). Then the problem of foreign investor optimization is examined.According to the findings of this research, with the increase in the level of institutional quality, the amount of bribe paid decreases, which applies to countries with a low level of institutional quality. The results of this study show that the Nash equilibrium is where the investor enters Iran and pays a bribe. In the next step, people choose the threat option. The government should also provide sufficient benefits and keep its promises in the future.

One of the fundamental issues in the field of the impact of institution and individual on each other is to provide a causal relationship between the individual and the institution, as well as to explain the mechanism and process of interaction between the two. The present research first extracts the causal relationship between the individual and the institution. Then, using the two concepts of "properties and commons" and "difference in wills", it explains the mechanism of influence of individual and institution on each other. Recent work has, firstly, substantiated the result of examining the causal relationship that was identified from person to institution in this study, and secondly, by stating that the influence of the individual and the institution in different situations can take various forms, removes this doubt. It shows that the precedence and latency of an institution or individual, like the parable of the hen and the egg, is not a vicious circle or sequence, but has the possibility of a logical explanation. Finally, the research expresses the application of the model in introducing scenarios that support domestic goods and explains that what kind of relationship between the components of the model can lead to the protection of domestic goods. It should be noted that the present study in the first part has used the method of documentation and libraries and refers to the Holy Quran as the main religious source and in the second part has used the method of scenario writing as a tree of probability.

Extracting the correct methodology of how socio-economic phenomena are realized helps us to discover the reality and predict future phenomena, as well as policy-making to create desirable phenomena and eliminate undesirable phenomena. Methodological individualism and methodological collectivism are the two main methodologies in this field. Methodologies that variant schools usually choose one of them according to their point of view. Since in some studies, this issue is extracted through the answer to the agent-structure problem and the type of relationship between them, the present study seeks to reach the methodology of Islamic economy. Finally, the study has concluded that the methodology of recognizing phenomena in Islamic economics is an individualistic methodology. This conclusion is the result of analysis to the types of structure, introduction the soft structure and discussing its nature and examining methodological individualism, methodological collectivism and the possibility of a third branch. It should be noted that the present study seeks to answer this question by documentary and library methods and by referring to the works of thinkers and the Holy Quran as the main religious source.

The purpose of this research is to criticize the Iranian governments’ policies supporting the Foreign Direct Investors. In this regard, 243 questionnaires have been distributed among actual investors (active in the country) and 107 questionnaires among potential ones; by collecting and applying Heckman two-step model, we analyzed them. Uusing Heckman two-step model was necessary because factors influencing potential investors’ behaviors to come or not to Iran were not necessarily the same as the factors influencing the amount of investment inflows by actual investors. Accordingly, in this article, the soft dimension of business environment (encompassing incertitude due to Political Instability, Xenophobia, ...) is differentiated from its hard dimension (encompassing Bureaucratic Environment, Government Executive Inability, ...) which can influance on the way that these dimensions impact on investor’s behavior. The results indicate that while in deciding to come to Iran, the investors only consider the soft dimension and its decisive importance, policy making in the field of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI ) are concentrated only on hard dimensions of the matter. For investors, deciding to enter Iran, the soft dimension is important to them, not the hard dimension, but after entering the country, hard dimensions also becomes important, so that if the country's status is suitable in terms of hard dimensions, actual investors will be more motivated to develop their business and bring more capital in to the country. Improperly prioritizes issues that the investors face, can be one of the failure factors of current policy making to attract real investors.

Reduction of inequality and social justice by balancing the distribution of income and wealth is one of the concerns of economic policy makers and has been underlined by the constitution law in Iran. In the meantime, the explanation of the relationship between inequality and the factors affecting it has been a challenging area of economic debate in recent decades, and despite extensive research in this area, there are still many ambiguous issues in this regard. In this regard, in recent years, a new hypothesis has been presented by the French economist Thomas Piketty. In his analysis, Piketty's main factor of inequality is the gap between the rate of return on capital and the economic growth rate (r-g). But, despite offering logical explanations consistent with changes in the patterns of inequality, no empirical test has been done for the scientific-theoretical chain. Therefore, the question arises as to how much Piketty's hypothesis is empirically convincing and capable of explaining the rise of inequality for different countries? For this purpose, this paper, using the Structural Vector Autoregressive pattern (SVAR), analyzes the factors affecting income inequality in Iran within the framework of Thomas Piketty's perspective during the period of 1973-2016. The results of this study showed that the increase of gap (r-g) has no positive and significant relationship with the increase of inequality and share of capital from national income in Iran and there is no evidence to confirm Piketty's hypothesis in Iran.

The aim of this study has been to evaluate the club convergence between Iran and its trading partners over the period 1978-2013. For this purpose, this paper has used log(t) test with the limited dependent variable. Then,by using a sequential dependent variable model, factors affecting the formation of these club has been investigated and identified.
According to estimated model in the form of panel data, a convergence club income between Iran and some of its trading partners has been confirmed. The results show that there are the potential for income convergence of Iran and Belize, Algeria, Egypt, Fiji, Guatemala, Honduras, India, Kiribati, Morocco, Nicaragua, Swaziland, Thailand, Tonga, Tunisia and Vietnam countries and they can form an effective economic block, and strength their internal relationships in order to achieve higher economic growth and faster convergence.

The present article presents the development of the economy’s third sector (Waqf and charity foundations) as a solution for implementing Islamic economics and using the capacities of public economy that develops the cooperative and philanthropic transactions besides the market competition, and also describes following this path as a necessary condition for Iranian-Islamic development consistent with the economic knowledge. Besides introducing a new approach to the third sector’s organizations and institutions (like endowment and charities), this article aims to show its importance and positive impact on the economic indices and then provides guidelines for its being developed in Iran. In order to do so, using the library method and introducing a conceptual model, we interpret the third sector’s transactions with the other two sectors of the economy and, using a statistical analysis, analyze the impact of its development and growth on such economic indices as the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) and human development index (HDI). The results show that the development of the economy’s third sector has a significant positive impact on GDP and HDI. Finally, relying on these results, we present eleven guidelines for the development of the third sector in Iran.

People with different beliefs, in turn, could affect economic variables the effect is trough doing an activity that people are offered in the community. Since always from the perspective of Islam and Western economists Ethical Treatment is recommended. It seems that people with a detailed understanding of their religious taught and moral norms do not work against public interests. Governments, along with a number of measures to facilitate and promote such activities can be a precursor to adhere these principles. Thus in Islamic society which achieving human happiness and perfection is the target, people should abide by ethical standards recommended in the verses and traditions and does their work in the community as their duty. In this regard, the responsibility of governments in each country is that to provide the bed and the necessary structures to achieve these goals.
In this study we try to investigate the importance of work and efforts along with Islamic ethics and appraise the government performance to provide a platform for ethical measures and the welfare of the people that should be realized. In this regard, by using library method and descriptive analysis, the moral activities of the Islamic Republic of Iran government in the executive Customs agencies has been analyzed. Referring to some activities, analysis of variance has been done on the implementation of World ASYCUDA project (87-91) - This project aims to accelerate the export, import and transit of goods in the country and thus increase revenue and provide satisfactory service to the community.
With calculations and studies, Results indicate that the execution of the project in some country’s customs agencies has a significant effect on the average efficiency of export, import and transit to the destination countries.

Predictability of the exchange rate is one of the puzzles in international economics studies. During the past decades، it has been assumed that the economic models (especially monetary models) are the main instruments for the exchange rate forecasts. The poor performance of these models in forecasting exchange rate in addition to the weak support of empirical studies caused serious doubts arise in the usefulness of the monetary models. The purpose of this study is to forecast Iranian exchange rate using some monetary models and comparing the estimated results with Random Walk model. First، the considered monetary models have been estimated by VECM method for 1973-2008. Then، the exchange rate has been forecasted with the data during 2009-2011. The results show that comparing to other monetary models، Random Walk could forecast the exchange rate more accurately. In addition، compared to Frankel-Bilson، Frankel- Bilson with rational expectations and Frankel- Dornbusch monetary model with rational expectations، Frankel-Dornbusch monetary model has better forecasting.

Consequences of the global financial crisis in 2008 and the resulting recession is one of the greatest examples of asset bubbles damaging effects. The role of monetary policy particularly in the form of high-powered money creation in the formation and explosion of the bubble assets can not be ignored. Expansionary monetary policy through liquidity increament and sending it to the asset markets, Provides asset price bubble growth And the constant increase in demand for these assets can spur this growth. In this study, the presence and size of bubbles in asset markets in the period from 1357 to 1389 have been analyzed. Also, the effects of monetary variables (money, narrow money and monetary base) on the probability of asset bubbles formation during the period of study are tested using a logit model. The results of this analysis show that only in the 2002-2003period, Tehran Stock Exchange has experienced Asset bubble. The relationship between the liquidity growth rate and the rate of change in the assets of the central bank on the probability of asset bubbles formation is positive, and relationship between narrow money, the net liabilities of central banks rate of change and other banks debt to the central bank are negative on the probability of asset bubbles formation.

In this paper، merit of the oldest known form of technical analysis، candlestick charting is investigated. Candlestick technical analysis is a short-term timing technique that generates signals based on the relationship between open، high، low، and close prices. In this paper we use stock prices of 17 companies listed in Tehran stock market from 1374/10/1 to 1387/9/10 to investigate the merit of 28 candlestick patterns. The method employed to test the hypotheses is Bootstrapping simulation based on GARCH-M model. Results show that comparing with buy-and-hold strategy، candlestick trading rules can earn extra benefits، but these returns vanish if we take commissions into account. So we conclude that candlestick trading rules can not beat the market in Tehran stock exchange.

Tourism plays a growing role in developing countries and is considered as a way of government deficit reduction، gaining foreign exchange and creating jobs. In addition، it is viewed as a channel of getting away from single product economies. In fact، tourism is an industry with multi-dimensional impacts on different sectors of economy. Therefore، it can also be viewed as an important development factor in Isfahan province. In this study، the impacts of international tourist expenditures on income generation، allocation، distribution، consumption and savings in different economic sectors of Isfahan province has been analyzed using Social Account Matrix (SAM) technique، supported by input-output matrix. The results show that financial sector has a very poor performance in this regard in terms of generating revenues coming from international tourists. Although the government sector has the highest share regarding the initial allocation of income، but due to the transactions happening among structural sectors، households have been the main gainers of this income generation. In fact، almost 84% of the generated revenues in this way have been consumed.

Ramsey model is one of the most important basic models to study intertemporal resource allocation. This model is derived from microeconomic optimal principle so it has a key role in macroeconomics with micro foundations. Hence، in many economic researches it is considered as a reference theory. Application of this model in economy of Iran will provide an appropriate theorem framework for explaining empirical facts of the Iranian economy and will introduce a new approach to researchers. The main idea of this study is generalizing Ramsey model through including terms of trade and its calibration in the economy of Iran. For this purpose first، the model is explained. Then، the first order condition is derived and mathematical optimal path of variables is solved. Finally، the model is calibrated by GAMS package for economy of Iran in time period (2006-2036). The results indicate that there is a feasible solution for model and the optimal path of variables can be observed. The optimal path of Gross National Production and Consumption are increasing but the optimal path of capital stock and investment is primarily increasing then decreasing. In the final section of this paper a sensitivity analysis is presented. Some scenarios are designed for the important parameters of model like time preferences rate، intertemporal substitution elasticity of consumption، labour growth rate and output elasticity of capital. Sensitivity analysis shows that output elasticity of capital and labour growth rate increased the social welfare and shifted optimal path of variables upward. But time preferences rate and intertemporal substitution elasticity of consumption had inverse effect on social welfare and optimal path of variables.

One of the industries which may affect the law enforcement of subsidies targeting is rubber industries. One of the factors affecting product’s cost price is energy price and because product's cost price is the source of competitiveness for an industry in market so this research analyzes the effects of this law on competitiveness of the rubber industry's products. Generally, the concepts of competitive advantage and coefficients protection are used to analyze the effect of removal energy subsidies on competitiveness of Yazd rubber industry complex's products. The results indicate the existence of competitive cost in Radial and Tube factories before removal energy subsidies. After removal energy subsidies Tube's products maintained their competitive advantage but Radial's products have lost their competitive advantage. Bios products don’t have competitive advantage before and after removal energy subsidies. However, the Bios products are strongly supported and Radial's support is negligible and Tube productions are not protected at all.

In this study we examined the relationship between Tehran stock exchange price index and some macroeconomic variables such as CPI، exchange rate، house price index، gold price index and value added of industry during 1991-2006 using VAR and VECM approach. According to the results، stock exchange price index is affected by its own lages، exchange rate and value added of industry، in short run، while it is influenced by gold price index، house price index، CPI، exchange rate، value added of industry and export، in long run.

Intro duction Tourism plays a growing role in developing countries and is accounted as a way of government deficit reduction, gaining foreign exchange and employment increment. In addition it is viewed as a channel of getting away from single product economies. In fact, an industry with multi dimension impacts is looked. Really, tourism is one of the most profitable activities such that many countries have invested on it. This industry is labor intensive and is one of the employment generation effective ways. Tourism is beyond an economic and industrial activity but what may surcharge its influence is the lack of fundamental possibilities providing tourists welfare in clouding scarce of suitable staying places. Bandar Turkman as an attractive site for tourists is faced with scarce suit staying palaces. Thus this study intended to estimate travel demand function of this city to assign the importance of paying attention to this matter. Therefore the demand function was estimated by travel cost method. 2- Theoretical Bases The basic premise of the travel cost method is that the time and travel cost expenses that people incur to visit a site represent the “price” of access to the site. Thus, peoples’ willingness to pay to visit the site can be estimated based on the number of trips that they make at different travel costs. This is analogous to estimating peoples’ willingness to pay for a marketed good based on the quantity demanded at different prices. 2-1- Options for Applying the Travel Cost

There are several ways to approach the problem, using variations of the travel cost method. These include: - A simple zonal travel cost approach, using mostly secondary data, with some simple data collected from visitors. - An individual travel cost approach, using a more detailed survey of visitors. - A random utility approach using survey and other data, and more complicated statistical techniques. 3- Discussion By arranging data in the regional format in the EXEL enviorment, the relation between journey demand and travel cost, mean age, mean education, and mean income level veriables were estimated. The results said that although the coefficients are in line with their theoretical bases but are not statistically significant. Then once again the relation was emtimated omitting meaningless veriables, the products result was as the following equation: VN1=12.0990618474-1.05527220477e-05*TCI The consumer surplus of such traveling is aproximatly 6879208 rials 4- Conclusion Results show that if travel cost to this site is zero, maximum demand for visiting is twoelve per one mellion of population. Per 1000 rails travel cost increment would reduce this rate by 1/0553e-2. 5- Suggestions Due to this matter that the people can gain relatively high surplus welfare by traveling to Bandar Turkman, it is recommended to those involved in the affairs of this field, to provide appropriate measures and suitable residential sites for the passengers coming. In this survey, beside age variables scrutiny such as literacy and income level as social indices which have determining role in the chosen destination, have shown that these kinds of variables have less dividend in the direction impacts on using or not using this place as promenade. Individual income is one important factor in promenades economic appraisal and the impact of such a factor on journey demand. Most of Talabe Gomishan visitors are set in the 400-600 thousand toman income range and with income mean increment, the number of visitors have been reduced. It’s necessary to mention that although wealthies have financial strength but they may not have enough time for recreation or May chose other palaces for this intention. For providing merrymaking possibilities and visitors needs, aging classification recognition is also is another important factor which in the direction of social survey of promenade place is searched. Scrutiny of results of aging groups has shown that most people responding questionnaire lie in the range of 25 to 29 year-old. It means that most tourists are young. This matter can help programmer for such environment provision which is suitable for young people.

Iran usually claims to have comparative advantage in horticultural products. This study examines this hypothesis on horticultural activity of Azarbayejan province for apple production in selected cities; Oroumiah, Khoy and Salmas at the West Azarbayejan province. It provides a theoretical framework for the analysis of the comparative advantage formulated Location Quotient. Hence a part of study is to determine the employment status of horticultural sector in selected cities of the Azarbayejan province during 2001, 2002 and 2003.Thus, by applying LQ index, the apple product has comparative advantage on the basis of LQ measurement except Khoy. The results also show that among these selected cities Oroumiah is exporting labours, therefore, has comparative advantage in horticultural production. So, this sector is expected to play an important role in the future of the region.

Volatility of terms of trade has particular features in oil exporting countries. A large part of the variability of the terms of trade is associated with extreme movements in oil prices. In this paper we study Dutch Disease in Iranian economy with emphasis on impact of terms of trade on tradeable and non-tradeable investment by cointegration technique in period (1971-2003). First, we consider Corden and Neary theory about Dutch Disease. Second, we derived the investment function according present value criteria, accelerator principle and neoclassical theory of investment. This model included of GDP, CPI, rate of interest and terms of trade. Third, we estimated this model by Johnsen-Juselius cointegration technique. We find a long run relationship among these variables. Our results verified existence of Dutch Disease in Iranian economy.

Although the theory of the internal RER is well developed, nevertheless, the actual computation of the different versions of the internal RER pose both conceptual and empirical problems especially for developing country including Iran. Necessary data for computing different Indexes of two goods internal RER are collected annually، indeed it can be hardly accessed through using unaggregate data in terms of value added of GDP. Therefore, in developing countries, every production or expenditure base Index of the internal RER may be meaningfully diverges from each other. Computation of production base indexes of the internal RER using production sectoral data for countries is as a measure for controlling expenditure base indexes.

It is assumed the exchange rate would affect resources balance through a switching – expenditure mechanism. Accordingly, the behavior of real exhange rate can be examined empirically. Of all structural models, the most applicable procedure relies on the partial trade model, which is specified based upon the basic equilibrium of Williamson exchange rate. Considering a specific concept of desired current account, this sort of model identifies a frame of the real exchange rate (Borowski and Couharde 2000). In a new classical framework, saving can be equivalent to difference between production and consumption plus payments of external debt interests. Consumption is also invariant on the basic of the life cycle theory. An optimal (desired) current accunt can thus be as a result of difference between investment and saving plus interests of external debt. Hence, development in real exchange rate can provide the desired conditions of the current account blance, which is called as a basic equilibrium (Williamson 1994).Due to assumptios of a trade model, the relative gap between potential and actual production is one of the main determinants of real exchange rate, which is computed, in the present study, by the filtering Hodrick-Prescott method for Iran. Determining optimal current account, the paper concludes that the relevant values obtained are negative for pre-revolutionary period, whereas they are positive for post-revolotionary period. The results are quite well-matched with Iran’s present economic condition.Overall, empirical results of equilibrium trade model for Iran reveal the fact that deviation from long-run equilibrium path of the real exchange rate has gradually diminished, even though it has been accompanied by correspondent fluctuations in Iran’s economic situation.