زهره فلاح محسن خانی

In countries where labor force surveys are based on rotation samples and partially standard sample units at different periods, the number of changing statuses can be estimated and presented as flow statistics. The response error is one of the essential non-sampling errors in labor force statistics. This error is doubled in flow statistics. Usually, the error of classifying flow statistics is estimated using the interview method, which is costly and complex. This paper presents the process of estimating flow statistics and appropriate models for calculating the classification error for it. Also, according to Iran's sample rotation pattern, each model's feasibility is examined. Finally, the Markov latent class model, assuming inequality of transition probabilities based on the rotation pattern of Iran for labor force samples, is introduced as a fit model for estimating classification error for flow statistics in Iran using the labour force survey data of 2019 and 2020.

Augmented Beta Regression models are used for modeling data such as rate, ratio or percentage. This model is made by combining the Beta distribution on the interval (0,1) and two degenerate distributions at 0 and 1. By reparameterizing the beta distribution, the mean and precision parameters are modeled with a structure including fixed and random effects. In this paper, simultaneous modeling of mean and precision the augmented mixed beta regression models is presented and the model efficiency in simulation studies by Bayesian approach is investigated. Next, the application of this model to analyze the proportions of employed persons in every household based on the results of the Statistical Center of Iran is shown and at the end, conclusion and results are presented.

Programming in the employment fields is the most important and fundamental need of the country, which requires labour force indexes during the periods of time. Now, Statistical Centre of Iran, as the resource of the official statistics in the country is accountable for presenting those data, but other organizations and offices in the country present the relevant figures on this field in lower levels. By equalising the required definitions, concepts and categories in the official statistics references, according to the definitions, concepts and categories of Labour Force Survey, the intermixed tables of the employment estimations can be offered in the required levels. Then, step by step, statistics of these tables will be corrected so that the difference between the figures of the two resources will decrease as much as possible. In this article, the interested population, the employees have been considered and its intermixed tables have been presented on the basis of the figures obtained from Labour Force Survey and administrative records related to the insurance of Social Security Organization, Health Insurance Organization and other social insurance funds (as much as possible) in the years between 2005 and 2018. The results show this difference is lower and lower during the interested periods.

Many studies in different areas include data in the form of rates or proportions that should be analyzed. The data may also accept values zero and one. Augmented beta regression models are an appropriate choice for continuous response variables in the closed unit interval [0,1]. The data in this model are based on a combination of three distributions, degenerate distribution at 0 and 1, and a beta density in (0,1). The random effects are usually added to the model for accommodating the data structures as well as correlation impacts. In most of these models, the random effects are generally assumed to be normally distributed, while this assumption is frequently violated in applied studies. In this paper, the augmented mixed beta regression model with skew-normal distributed random effects is presented. A Bayesian approach is adopted for parameter estimation using Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. The proposed model is applied to analyze a real data set from Labor Force Survey.

The Beta regression model is usually used for modeling the rates or proportions confined in an open interval (0,1). In some studies, the data may also include zero and one. In this paper, an augmented Beta regression model that is a mixture of Beta distribution with two degenerated distributions at 0 and 1 is presented for rates or proportions confined in [0,1]. For the augmented mixed Beta model with reparametrization of Beta distribution, the mean and precision parameters were modeled including fixed and random effects. This is while taking into account that the random effects make these models applicable to correlated data. Here, the augmented mixed Beta model is presented. Then this model is evaluated in a simulation study. Next, the application of this model is shown for analyzing the proportions of employed persons in every household. Finally, conclusion and results are presented.

The law on targeted subsidies was presented as a bill by the ninth government of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2008 and eventually with amendments was passed by the Islamic Consultative Assembly.
The law that was supposed to be the revenues to increase productivity and economic growth, became a serious problem for the government due to false implementation. In the second phase of implementing this law, the removal of the wealthy people who receive direct subsidy led to a lot of discussions that, at the end of the parliament's review of the budget bill for the year 2016, the removal of 24 million people ,who receive subsidies, from the government's list was approved. . For a proper implementation of this directive, high-income households should be identified correctly. Therefore, the four criteria of "climatic conditions", "household size", "area of living" and "level of income" were proposed to identify these households. If these variables are significant in mathematical and statistical models, the impact of these variables on high-income households can be determined.
In applied studies, regression models are usually used to analyze data that are related to a set of explanatory variables. The fitting of these models is done by assuming the normality of the response variable or its transformation, along with the constant of the variance of the response variable and the incompatibility of the error components.. In some cases, the response variable may be limited in the interval (1 and 0) and, by fitting the regression model, predictions are obtained outside the defined interval.
In these cases the use of normal regression models are not appropriate and beta regression model is suggested. This model is based on the assumption that response variable has Beta distribution, and the mean of the response variable is linked by a linear predictor with unknown coefficients and a link function to a set of explanatory variables. If the response variable gets the values of zero and one, an augmented Beta model that is mixture of a Beta distribution with two degenerated distributions at 0 and 1 has been suggested. Since in this study the variable of the response, that is the share of household income from the subsidy, can take values in the closed interval [1.0], to examine the effective variables on that additional beta regression model has been used. The data used in this study were collected from Iran's household income and household expenditure survey (HIES) which has been implemented by the Statistical Center of Iran.. The main objective of the household income and expenditure survey is to measure the average of food-expenditure, non-food expenditure, and total expenditure of the urban and rural households in Iran. Information provided by HIES has been applied to calculate poverty line, study the impurity in household income and facilities. Statistical population in this survey is all of the households which are settled in urban and rural areas. The presented regression model to understand the effective covariates on response rate is applied by the data set of Tehran city. Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) is used for model evaluation.
Finding: To distinguish high-income households, this paper presented modeling of the share of household income from subsidies in Tehran city using the results of Household Income and Expenditure survey conducted by the Statistical Center of Iran in 1390. After checking different covariates, deciles of household income and household size were entered into the augmented beta regression model with negative and positive coefficients respectively. Spatial map of Tehran city shows heterogeneity among different districts of Tehran municipality, which is significant in the spatial augmented beta regression model with a positive coefficient. Hence, decile of income, household size, and area of living were identified as significant variables on the proportion of household income from subsidies.
. The findings of this study confirm the criteria proposed by economic experts to identify high-income households. Since information about area of living is more accessible in comparison to other covariates, level of income and household size, it is suggested to imply an area of living geographically for grouping households in order to make a decision about getting the direct subsidies.
To access the information about the area of household living, it is suggested to use Instruments and Landed Property Registration Organization data base. Since decile of income is a significant variable on share of household income from subsidies, information about status of ownership and area of housing unit which are available in Instruments and Landed Property Registration Organization data base can be used as an indicator to identify wealthy people. Moreover,, Numbers and prices of automobiles, which belong to a household and having a business license can also be used for this purpose.
Another effective variable on share of household income from subsidies is household size, which is updated through population and housing census. In order to plan for the allocation of subsidies to households it is necessary to consider household size, decile on income and area of household living simultaneously, for a decision to be taken in regard to per capita household income from subsidies criterion. Identification of wealthy households is being possible by linking these data bases.

Women make up half of the population of countries but generally their participation in economic activities is not proportional to their potential. Studies conducted by the International Monetary Fund show that if women enter the labor market to their full potential, the macroeconomic situation of the country will observe significant improvement. Studies show that generally, developing countries have a significantly different level of economic activity of women than men do. For example in 2016, the participation rate of men is about 69 percent while the rate is around 60 percent for women. With regards to Iran, these rates account for about 63 percent and 13 percent for men and women, respectively. In Middle Eastern countries a 21 percent participation rate for women has been noticed. Studies have shown that the difference between the participation of men and women in economic activities is the main factor in the reduction of the rate of economic growth in many countries. Sociological perspectives state the hypothesis that the difference between women’s economic participation in various countries is more due to economic factors. It also it derives from issues relating to traditional and custom living systems, and social and cultural institutions. Also, the lack of hope for women to seek the job they were exactly looking for could be another factor in this regard. This means that the high unemployment rate in this group is the reason for their disappointment and this is considered from the active population. By analyzing the data of the labor force survey of the Statistical Center of Iran regarding the reasons for not looking for a job among inactive women, it was shown that more than 70 percent of them had, personal or family related responsibilities, and about 2 percent of them were needless of a job and about 1 percent of them named discouragement from finding a job as a reason for not search for one. This information can confirm the effects of attitudes, values and cultural in women’s participation in economic activities. Results from the Statistical Center of Iran Time Use Survey in urban areas in summer 1394 shows the average time spent for men to do housework in men is negligible as compared to mean and this resin may reduce women’s enthusiasm toward economic activities. Thus, it stated that the low economic participation rate of women in Iran is stemmed more from economic factors than from cultural and traditional attitudes in the society.

Overall planning in employment areas is the most important and fundamental form of order planning that needs indicators that reflect the changes and stock estimates of the labour force status. Over the last three decades, with the implementation of scientific and accurate surveys and collection of data on individuals and households, a board literature has emerged in the study of labor supply at the micro level. Labor force survey with rotation sampling is one of the sources that can be used to obtain labour force indicators. The labor force surveys statistics Centre of Iran, using a rotating sample that implemented quarterly since 2005. . In this paper, the method of computing flow labor force for LFS data of Iran is described and the resulting estimates by men and women are proposed. Also, by using these estimates, labour force mobility and stability, durations and forecasts of the changes in labour force status, school to work transition, various sectors of the economy and status in employment is analyzed for a period of 8 years.

Youth population of country is the national capital and the largest source of development economic and cultural, hence detailed study trend of social indicators of the group and comparison with the total population trend indicators is the source of valuable information that help planners and policy makers to provide developing effective programs and policies.In this paper, demographic characteristics, migration, education and marital status among Iranian youth using the results of the Population and Housing censuses will be reviewed. In this paper will be studied, demographic characteristics, migration, education and marital status among Iranian youth by use the results of the Population and Housing censuses.Research results show changes in indices related to education and marriage among youth because of economic and social issues during the recent years.

Creating stable employment is one of the important objectives of any government. so, overall planning needs indicators that reflect the changes of the labour force status and the population. Labor force survey with rotation sampling is one of the sources that can be used to obtain these indicators. The labor Force Survey (LFS) is done by Statistical Centre of Iran, using a rotating sample that is implemented quarterly since 2005. In this paper, the method of computing labor force flow for LFS data of Iran is described and the resulting estimates for male and female labor force are proposed. Finally, these estimates for a period of 6 years are analyzed.

In this study, the effective factors on increase of the probability of becoming unemployed or inactive for an employed person, during a one-year period has been considered with gender approach and by two aspects of losing job (becoming unemployed) and leaving employment (becoming inactive). The results of the study show that employment stability is higher for men, rural residences, migrants, higher educated people, employed in establishments with more than 5 workers, and insured persons. Findings about females employment stability imply that such stability is higher for rural women, women who are the head of household, migrant women, women employed in management occupations, women employed in public sector employee, and insured women. In contrast, the employment stability is lower for females employed in agriculture sector and females with short job experiences. The noticeable point is that, however marriage, can increase employment stability for males but can decrease it for females.

In this article, the efficiency of balanced sampling is compared with that of PPS sampling under the same conditions, where in both methods, only one auxiliary variable is used. For this purpose, by performing a simulation study with different sampling fractions, the efficiency has been computed. The findings show that under the same conditions in terms of using auxiliary information, regardless of the size of sampling fraction, the use of balanced sampling leads to more gain than that of the PPS sampling and by increasing the sampling fraction, the gain is increased.

Sampling estimator are usually faced to two kind of errors estimation error and measurement error. The correct use of these estimates, specially dealing with different estimates of the same characteristics, requires knowledge on these errors. The estimates of 2006 census-taking along with some sampling, had these kind of errors. Especially for employed rural women, the measurement error had affected on these estimates. In this paper, questionnaire errors of 2006 census for measurement rural women employment rate are discussed by comparing the result of 2006 autumn labor force survey via different kinds of questions related to labor force status and other related errors. Finally the results of two measurement methods are compared.

Rotation sampling is one of the sampling methods that are used extensively for generation of formal statistic in surveys. Rotation sampling leads to decline variance of changes directly but if composite estimate uses in which information for past periods, is used in estimation, variance of changes, reduces again by the reduction of variance of the level estimation.This article introduces composite estimates and compute of the data of labor force of Iran.

Labor Force survey is one of the most important surveys that is implemented quarterly for producing formal labor statistics. Estimates of this survey are published in the end of each quarter without their variances by Statistical Center of Iran. In this paper variances of quarter, year and changes estimations are computed by jackknife and Verma methods.

After forty years period of implementing of households income and expenditure survey in Iran, the results show that in all years the mean of household income is less than their expenditures. While it can be resonable for some years because of economic problems but it's continious in such a long period show that this difference is not due to economic depression and may be a reflecting of under coverage or under statement of households income in the survey. In this study, analysing of the results of income and expenditure survey in period 1997-2001 show that this problem is not limited to a special group of household. Therefore, solve that problem the related questions in income section of household income and expenditure survey questionair should be design in a way that can present better coverage of household income.

The youth unemployment issue is one of the most important issues in country’s macro planning. Although the youth unemployment rate is available through labour force survey but the youth employment challenge and issues they suffer in their first entry into the labour market, finding and maintaining decent jobs, can not be studied through results of mentioned surveys. For gathering above information, International Labour Organization has designed the School-to-Work Transition Survey (SWTS). The results of this survey helps countries improve their youth employment policy and planning. For discovering the issues that country’s young suffer for entrance to the labour market, SWTS has carried out in 3 selected provinces of the country in 2005 with probability sampling scheme and 2925 sample households. Based on survey results, the most important barriers of the youth successful transition are as follows:- Around one third of the youth have stated self-employment as their preferable employment status. Since the self-employment share in the country’s economy has had a descending trend and the unpaid family worker share an ascending trend over the recent years, another problem appears in the youth employment. - The country’s disorganized labour market and the weak role of the recruitment and place of education institutions have caused most of youth to be seeking for work informally, enjoying limited of work options consequently. For this reason, a great percent of the economically active youth (employed or unemployed) have stated not having a reference as one of obstacles in finding a job and only a small percent of the youth have been seeking for work through recruitment and place of education institutions.The most important obstacle in finding a job from the attitude of the most of the economically active youth is the limited number of job opportunities caused by the labour force supply surplus, mainly due to the high population growth rate in the 1978-88 decade and shortage of labour force demand. Moreover, the participation rate has increased as a result of increase in the youth educational level that has been more sensible in the female youth.- In the opinion of many economically active youths the educations and trainings received, may not facilitate their access to employment. Also, most employers have considered the youths’ educational and training level and their ability in applying the instructions to the working environment, relatively weak. This problem arises from the lack of interaction between educational institutions and labour market that may not include the labour market needs in the country’s educational system contents. In addition, such an interaction could considerably increase the role of the educational institutions in keeping the youth informed of available job opportunities.- In opinion of more than half of the youth, there is sex discrimination in employment promotion in the labour market. Also, since the absolute majority of employers prefer to hire males, inequality of job opportunities for males and females really exists at least in the private sector wage and salary earning employment.- Considering the fact that the great majority of the self-employed youths depend on their households’ financial support or their own savings for starting their business, it is certain that the youths from the low-income households would face more problems in their transition and the self-employment is the choice only for the youths from wealthy households.- The youth with higher education has experienced easier transition than the youth with lower secondary educations and high school. Therefore, the youths’ failure in their admittance to the university is an obstacle to access the easy transition. Also, the mismatch between the limited university admittance in various fields and specializations required by the labour market, prevents the more successful transition of the young university graduates.

Approximately half of employees over the world work in the gender specific jobs where at least 80 percent of the employees belong to the same gender. In fact, non-agricultural jobs specific to men are seven times more than those of women. This phenomenon shows inflexibility of job market; it leads to the reduction in especially for women and decreases the economic efficiency (Anker, 1998). Gender-wise job discrimination is indicative of not only gender-wise inequality in job opportunities. Indeed, jobs specific to women are often less paid, lower in position and more limited in possibilities of promotion than those of men; moreover it is proved that more equality of men and women in a job has a negative effect on its wage (Golden, 2002). It is necessary to calculate and compare the indicators showing the different aspects of job market gender-wise so as to examine the gender discrimination status in the job market. Using a collection of Decent Work indicators, which express job market status in a country, this paper tries to calculate the extent of gender discrimination in Irans job market in various and analyzer the trends of its changes with the pass of time. Therefore, firstly the definitions and concepts of 23 Decent Work Indicators are offered. Then 19 indicators pertaining to gender discrimination are introduced and 11 indicators, possible to be calculated with the use of household employment and unemployment statistical time series data within 1997 and 2003, are calculated for the whole country gender-wise. The results of the research shows that although womens participation in the job market and their status in this market have enjoyed a growing trend in the period surveyed, in most cases women do not have the same access to equal opportunities in job market as men do.