سعید دایی کریم زاده

The aim of the study was to investigate the impact of investment in renewable energy infrastructure, human capital development and environmental sustainability on renewable energy consumption in the Gulf countries. In this study, investment in renewable energy infrastructure is considered as a key factor in sustainable economic and environmental development. The results show that increasing investment in renewable energy infrastructure directly and significantly increases the consumption of renewable energy. This indicates the importance of strengthening technical infrastructure and equipment that can increase the efficiency of renewable energy. Improving human capital, through training and developing workforce skills, plays an important role in increasing the consumption of renewable energy. The results show that paying attention to environmental policies and reducing the use of fossil fuels has a positive effect on the consumption of renewable energy. These policies include encouraging the use of clean energy, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and enforcing strict environmental regulations that can increase the use of renewable energy, and implementing supportive policies can help boost the use of renewable energy and achieve sustainable development goals. Advanced technologies can increase the efficiency of renewable energy and reduce production costs, while supportive policies such as subsidies and financial incentives can expand the use of these energies. Therefore, Gulf countries can achieve economic and environmental sustainability by upgrading renewable energy infrastructure and human capital and reduce their dependence on fossil fuels.

Monetary policy transmission channels that are related to the banking sector and the credit perspective are considered as an important and key factor in influencing macroeconomic components. Regarding the capital market in Iran, financing of various economic sectors is mainly done by the banking system. In most cases, banks' lending behavior is influenced by monetary policies, financial development and economic fluctuations and is adjusted in response to these signs. The purpose of this article is to investigate the role of credit market development and monetary policy on economic growth through the bank lending channel in Iran during the period from the first quarter of 1998 to the first quarter of 2020. For this purpose, the effect of monetary policies and financial development in credit markets on the amount of bank lending and then the effect of bank lending on economic growth were estimated using the generalized moments method (GMM). After that, the mediating role of the bank lending channel in transferring the effect of monetary policies and financial development on economic growth was tested by calculating the Sobel statistic. The results indicated that monetary policy had a negative effect on bank lending through the increase of interest rates.

The aim of the current research is to design a model for the development of women's employability capacity with an emphasis on the seventh development plan. This qualitative research was compiled using thematic analysis; In this research, using semi-structured interviews with 23 experts in the field of policy making, entrepreneurship and management, the findings were combined and the present model was designed. Based on this, by analyzing the content of the interviews using the Maxqda 2020software, the relevant dimensions and codes were extracted and the importance and priority of each was determined using Shannon's entropy technique. Based on the research approach, 34 concepts and 109 codes were extracted. Supportive policies, territorial development, skill capacities, entrepreneurship platform, explanation of women's employment document and educational system gained the highest importance coefficient. In this research, the development model of women's employability capacity was presented with an emphasis on the 7th development plan. Since a comprehensive model for women's employability with emphasis on the 7th Development Plan has not been presented so far, this research can be useful in promoting women's employment, social development and job equality.

Banking crises are among the challenges that can affect the economy of a country; therefore it is necessary to examine the effective factors in preventing the occurrence of banking crises. Among these cases, we can refer to the quality of banking technology services and green banking, which can affect the prevention of banking crises by affecting customer satisfaction. Accordingly, this study has evaluated the effect of the quality of banking technology services and green banking on preventing the possibility of banking crises. For this purpose, a questionnaire method was used to collect data, and finally, information related to 700 respondents was collected, which included people who used green banking services. The statistical sample of the research included 350 people using green banking services in Iran and 350 people using green banking services in Iraq in 2023. The desired model has been validated with the help of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) analysis by AMOS and SPSS software. The results showed that for the country of Iran, the quality of technology services including (dimensions of reliability, tangible property, accountability, empathy and confidence) have positive and significant effects on customer satisfaction with green banking services and also customer satisfaction with green banking technology, ultimately preventing the occurrence of There have been banking crises. While for the country of Iraq, the first main hypothesis that the quality of technology services including (dimensions of reliability, tangible property, responsiveness, empathy and assurance) had positive and significant effects on customer satisfaction with green banking services is confirmed, but Despite the fact that the second hypothesis of the research that the quality of technology services has positive and significant effects on customer satisfaction with green banking technology has been confirmed, but three sub-hypotheses, namely the effect of reliability, responsiveness and empathy dimension of technology service, have not been confirmed. Based on this, it can be concluded that this research provides a new perspective for sensitive and committed countries to strengthen their green development in banking strategies by welcoming technological advances and ultimately preventing banking crises.

The main purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of the change of the head of the stock exchange organization, the occurrence and failure of the "JCPOA" on the price bubble of shares accepted in the Tehran Stock Exchange. The statistical population of this research is the companies accepted in the Tehran Stock Exchange and its statistical sample includes the data of 100 companies for the 10-year period of 2011-2020. The sampling method was systematic elimination method. The method used to estimate the model is the multivariate regression method using the combined data method and generalized moments regression models (GMM). The results showed that the change of the head of the stock exchange organization has a positive effect on the stock bubble of the Tehran Stock Exchange. Also, the results showed that the "JCPOA" has a positive effect on the price bubble of Tehran Stock Exchange. In addition, it was found that the failure of the "JCPOA" has a negative effect on the stock price bubble of Tehran Stock Exchange.

The purpose of this research is to investigate the effects of the intensity of industrialization in the short and long term on the incomes caused by import tariffs in Iran, with the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) approach in the period of 1991-2020.For this purpose, a system of equations consisting of the share of the added value of industries with advanced and medium technology from the added value of the entire industry, the share of the added value of the country's industry in the gross domestic product, the average tariff rate, the exchange relationship, trade liberalization and the price index of imported goods has been defined.The results indicate that, in the short term, the greatest effect was caused by the price index of imported goods, and in the long term, the average tariff rate had the greatest impact on the incomes caused by the import tariff.The evidence in this research shows that the intensity of industrialization in Iran will increase the government's income due to the import tariff, and by increasing the price index of imported goods and the tariff rate, it will have adverse effects on it.Using the results of this research, the government can reduce the elasticity of import demand by providing expansionary financial policies and reducing the tariff rate, and by increasing imports, it can increase the government's income from import tariffs and increase the intensity of industrialization in Iran. which will increase industrial exports and foreign currency entry into the country.

Energy is always considered as one of the important factors of economic growth and development. But today, the use of traditional sources of energy and fossil fuels is associated with doubts due to various reasons, including the emission of greenhouse gases, as well as their limited and exhaustible nature. It is the direction of economic growth.

For this purpose, the bootstrap causality test was used based on the annual data of selected developed countries and developing countries during the period of 2002-2020.

Based on the results of Granger bootstrap test, there is causality from the side of new energy (EC) to economic growth (Y) and vice versa, as well as from the side of trade (TO) to economic growth (Y) and vice versa in selected developed countries. When the rate of economic growth increases significantly, increasing pressure is placed on resources. In this regard, the demand for capital and advanced equipment is increasing and since it is possible to exploit any of the resources in these countries, therefore, along with the increase in economic growth, the increase in the consumption of new energy is not far from the mind. But the causality in the selected developing countries is one-way and from the variable side of new energy to economic growth, and the causality from the side of economic growth to new energy is established only in the countries of China and Brazil.

In developing oil exporting countries such as Iran and Russia, the reason for the absence of a significant relationship between the production and consumption of new energy is due to the existence of huge oil and gas resources that cause excessive use and waste of energy. In oil countries, due to the abundance of energy resources, the motivation for optimal use is low, and most importantly, the price of energy in these countries usually does not change in the direction of global balances. 

The purpose of the present study was the interpretative structural modeling of factors affecting the development of women's employability capacity with emphasis on the seventh development plan. This study was conducted based on the practical objective and with a qualitative and quantitative approach in the inductive-deductive paradigm. Identifying the effective factors on the development of women's employability capacity was done through semi-structured interviews based on theoretical saturation with 23 experts in the field of policy making, entrepreneurship and management. The validity and reliability of the interviews were confirmed by the method of relative content validity and Cohen's kappa index, respectively. In order to model the effective factors on the development of women's employability capacity, the opinions of 73 experts, managers and entrepreneurs who are familiar with the subject of the research were used with the help of a questionnaire. Validity and reliability of the questionnaire were confirmed using content validity and test-post-test method. Coding of interviews using Maxqda 2020 software led to the identification of 34 factors affecting the development of women's employability capacity with emphasis on the seventh development plan. Modeling of the identified factors with interpretative structural method led to the formation of thirteen levels, which support policies,

Financing, creating resources, delivering services, and stewardship are the four main tasks of the health system, and achieving these goals is the main indicator of an efficient and fair health system. The present study was conducted to investigate the model of the management of the financing chain of the health system with the approach of system dynamics.

In this integrated review, all articles related to the study objectives, published until May 2022, were reviewed. Search in SID database, Iran Medex, Iran Doc, Magiran, Science Direct, Medline / PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, ProQuest, Google Scholar, and Cochrane Library. It was done with the keywords "financing ", "health system", "supply chain management" and "system dynamic". The inclusion criteria were articles in English or Persian, quasi-experimental, descriptive,qualitative, and related to the study objectives. Exclusion criteria were review articles, posters,speeches, and letters to the editor.

Dimensions and components affecting health financing include: health-oriented services,the amount of knowledge sharing and documentation, budgeting system, the effect of the number of customers and demand, the extent of met demand, tax-oriented system, social hospital, financial participation, disease fund, competitive advantage, service quality, bureaucracies, financing plans, and legislation, effective use of information, financial and risk structure, improvement of human resources performance, effective advertising and population trends.

The management of the financial supply chain in the health system has many complexities and depends on economic factors, legislation, and the quality of service delivery. A scientific model based on its dynamic situation has not been investigated and formulated so far.

Considering the importance of tax function in the country's economy, it is necessary to reform the tax system and eliminate its deficiencies. Public acceptance is actually the level of society's trust in the country's tax structure and the assurance that tax justice is observed on the one hand and that the collected tax is spent on the development of the country on the other hand. On the other hand, tax evasion has always been one of the major concerns of governments in order to get closer to tax justice while providing maximum tax revenue, so the purpose of this research is to provide a proposed model for reforming Iran's tax system with two approaches of increasing public acceptance and reducing tax evasion. . The current research was conducted with a combined approach (combining qualitative and quantitative methods). In the qualitative part, the conceptual model of the research was designed by asking the opinions of 32 tax experts and through an open questionnaire. In the quantitative stage, through a statistical sample consisting of 112 informed people, the model designed with the structural equation modeling (PLS) approach wastested. The resultsshow that the tax system is the foundation for the promotion of transparency due to its supervision and requirements. Transparency also has a positive and significant effect on reducing tax evasion in this area. Also, reducing tax evasion will increase public trust in this system.

Because the government in countries with abundant natural resources depends on one or more limited resources, if there are trade barriers, national income decreases and economic growth slows down. The research question is whether the effect of non-resource exports on economic growth is non-linear and whether the real effective exchange rate, which has a direct role on the flow of exports, can lead to the Dutch disease phenomenon or not? The aim of this study is to investigate the nonlinear effect of natural resource abundance on economic growth by focusing on non-resource export and the real effective exchange rate variables for the 16 selected OPEC member countries during the period between 2000 and 2021. In order to analyze the data, GMM method has been used. Findings showed that the abundance of natural resources has led to a decrease in economic growth, which indicates the occurrence of the resource curse phenomenon in the studied countries. Also, the second power of the natural resources abundance variable has a positive and significant effect, based on which it can be concluded that the natural resources abundance variable has a non-linear effect on economic growth in the studied countries.

The purpose of this research is Investigating the relationship between innovation ability, type of innovation (Organizational, product, process and marketing) and performance (innovative, market, production and financial) of the companies that are accepted in the Tehran Stock Exchange. The statistical population of the research consists of 422 manufacturing companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, which is selected as the selected sample using the systematic elimination method of 52 companies. The method of collecting field data and data collection tool is a revised standard questionnaire whose content validity was evaluated by experts and the validity of structure and structure was confirmed by confirmatory factor analysis in smart-pls software and its reliability was assessed using Cronbach's alpha coefficient. 0.927 was approved Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests were used to test normality and path analysis and structural equation modeling were used to estimate the pattern. The results showed that innovation and its types have a significant effect on the organization's performance from different aspects. The results also showed that innovation ability has the most impact on organizational innovation and innovation performance. It has the greatest impact on marketing innovation. Based on the results of this study, innovation performance to play an important role in increasing the market performance level both directly and through product performance. Also, organizational innovation has a direct impact on product innovation and can also affect    product innovation through process innovation                                                                            
                                   

Recent studies on complex networks in international trade show the number of partners; trade intensity, indirect trade connections and the central position of each partner in the trade network have significant effects on economic growth. The network analysis approach in investigating the effect of trade on economic growth, unlike conventional methods, can identify and measure indirect trade relations (intermediary countries in trade) in international interactions. This research aims to investigate world trade centrality indicators’ effects on economic growth using panel data of 42 chosen countries of Asia and CIS, in two steps. At first, the weighted directional matrices of trade was made and then the centrality indices of the countries were calculated for the selected years according to a complex network approach. Then the effect of the aforementioned indices as an explanatory variable of trade on economic growth has been investigated, and these were compared with the effect of the trade openness index.The results of the research show that compared to the conventional indicator of the trade openness index, the centrality indicators of the world trade network show a better explanation of economic growth while having more effect. Among these, the closeness centrality (due to having a core role in the network and the entanglement of trade relations) and the eigenvector centrality (due to establishing relationships with countries that are connected with important partners in the network) have more effects on economic growth.

Emergence of the new Keynesian School and its dramatic impact on the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models and integration with concepts such as nominal rigidity and monopoly competition, have made these models a central focus of the monetary economist and central banks. In the framework of this school and using the literature of such models, we built an estimable DSGE model for the Iranian economy. By simulating the effects of the implementation of monetary and foreign exchange policies through the policy instruments, bank interest rate, central banks international reserves and the nominal exchange rate, are measured on the macroeconomic variables, the real trade balance, production gap, inflation rate, real exchange rate and foreign assets.

In order to formulate an appropriate model, first the behavioral equations of economic agents have been specified according to the realities of the Iranian economy. Traditionally, an inter-period utility function and a production and profit function have been considered to explain the behavior of consumers and producers, respectively. These agents want to maximize their benefits (utility – profit) or the goal function. The foreign sector is added to the model as a trade balance (net exports) which is the key function. Policy making is operated via the optimum simple rule and under three alternative currency regimes: Managed Exchange Rate (MER), Floating Exchange Rate (FER) and Pegged Exchange Rate (PER) regime. The monetary authority (central bank) has designed four methods for applying the mentioned policies: inflation target, production target, production and inflation targets and finally inflation, production and real exchange rate targets. The analyzed variables are production gap, country’s trade balance (without oil), inflation rate and real exchange rate.
 policy instruments also include bank interest rate, foreign reserves of the central bank and the rate of change in the nominal exchange rate. After designing and adjusting the model for the Iranian economy and determining the necessary dynamics, the linear equation system was prepared. The effects of monetary and exchange policies on foreign sector variables was analyzed according to the mass of this sector in production and employment and based on model’s dynamic relations. Furthermore, the actions, reactions and influences of these policies on country’s trade balance have been measured in the format of variable fluctuations. The model is simulated by using calibrated real data and Dynare software under MATLAB.

The findings indicate that in all policy rules, the scenario of the intermediate currency system has superiority over other currency systems and causes less fluctuations in model’s endogenous variables comparing to the other alternative currency systems.  

The results show that Managed Exchange Rate (MER) for all four methods is optimum and the loss of central bank is minimized as much as possible and  compared to other systems, it has caused the fluctuations of the external sector variables of Iran's economy to be minimized. Hence, it is necessary for the Central Bank to strictly use the intermediate currency system as the dominant scenario when setting policy packages.

Tourism competitiveness holds significant importance in economic development. Enhancing competitiveness can lead to increased market share and economic growth in the tourism sector. Numerous studies have analyzed the determinants of tourism destination competitiveness. This research examines how tourism competitiveness in Iranian cities contributes to the country's economic development.The purpose of this research, on the one hand, is the link between the two concepts of competitiveness and the indicators used for measurement, and on the other hand, studies related to tourism competitiveness models and economic growth resulting from the presence of tourists. In terms of the nature of the research, the research method of the upcoming study is qualitative research, and in terms of the goal, it is developmental or applied in terms of methodology, it is analysis and copying tools, And the statistical population is used by experts and professors related to tourism competition and urban planning, and in the end, the analysis of information has been done by means of confirmatory factor analysis. The results obtained from these studies define a model in which the provision of heritage tourism resources with the provision of productive resources and the links between them are the elements that determine the capacity of an economy for production as a result of economic growth. The presented models have emphasized a set of related variables that indicate how they must be measured and evaluated. Even so, an increase in tourism activity contributes positively to economic growth, although how it does so, how much, as well as generalizing this contribution to the development of all countries or periods, are questions that remain. 

Based on this, the main problem of the research has been stated as follows: what are the concepts for creating competition between cities? Also, how can the government and the people solve the economic problems of society by using these competitions? On the other hand, how can actual and potential competition between cities lead to economic prosperity and solve other problems of cities and citizens? In this regard, Iran, as one of the countries whose economy is strongly dependent on oil, can move away from the oil economy by creating actual and potential competition between its cities, as well as changes in the texture of localities and the physicality of urban spaces to attract Tourists can promote  the economy caused by tourism.

the research method of the upcoming study is qualitative research, and in terms of the goal, it is developmental or applied in terms of methodology, it is analysis and copying tools, And the statistical population is used by experts and professors related to tourism competition and urban planning, and in the end, the analysis of information has been done by means of confirmatory factor analysis.

In this research, a new concept of the relationship between competitiveness, tourism, and growth has been presented in which the provision of hereditary resources, together with the provision of production resources and the links between them, are the elements that determine the capacity of an economy for production and as a result growth. The new conceptual framework of tourism variables, including the model, does not depend on demand factors. Instead, it directly focuses on production factors such as physical and human capital. Unlike previous models that measured tourism by tourism income or the number of tourists, this new model aims to provide a more comprehensive understanding of tourism. (Lejárraga, Walkenhorst, 2010)This variable refers to the conditions of the territory, which motivates the offer of tourism in a geographical area. As shown in previous studies on measuring tourism competitiveness, what should be included in the conception of intrinsic resources of tourism remains an undefined question.

In general, it seems that in certain lands there is a series of elements that make those places attractive for tourists, which is related to culture, environment and climate. These sources are numerous, and some of them have been protected from interest over the past century, indicating that they are known as attractive elements for the reasons already mentioned. Therefore, from the measurement of those elements, it is possible to produce an index that includes only the elements related to culture, environment and climatic condition, with the previously shown tourism competitiveness measurement techniques, such as those applied in TTCI or CM. Several aspects should be considered when analyzing these relationships. Firstly, The number of foreign economic variables like public capital, private capital, and human territory are indicators of the competitiveness of destination tourism.The influence of production factors on competitiveness indicators is a direct result of economic growth. The second measure of tourism is usually income or the number of tourists, which involves connecting a demand variable with economic growth. In addition, the relationship between tourism and economic growth is influenced by other variables such as physical and human capital, as well as infrastructure. The study will be biased if these variables are not taken into account to explain growth. This research proposes that the relationships between tourism and territory can be viewed from the standpoint of the territory having certain inherent qualities or resources that make it attractive to travelers, rather than the influence of production factors. These Innate resources are known as inherited resources. The provision of those resources in a territory, along with the provision of production resources, such as private or public capital and human capital and their connection with each other, means the complementary or alternative relationships that exist between them, elements that determine the capacity of an economy to produce and thus grow.

In the present study, the effective factors on the index of economic resilience in the countries of the Middle East region during the period 2000-2020 were experimentally evaluated. Firstly, the economic resilience index was calculated based on several sub-indices, and then the effect of factors affecting this index was examined for the oil and non-oil countries of the Middle East. The factors affecting economic resilience included technological variables, oil production, economic openness, political globalization, cultural globalization, and government spending. A dynamic ordinary least squares cointegration approach was used to achieve the objectives of the study. The results of the cointegration analysis indicated the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables studied. Based on the results obtained, except for the variable of government expenditure, the other variables mentioned had a positive effect on the economic resilience of the Middle East oil countries in the long run. However, no significant effect was found between the variable of oil production and the economic resilience of oil countries. The variable coefficient of political globalization has the most positive effect on the economic resilience of oil countries. The variables of economic openness and cultural globalization are also in the next ranks in this respect. This is despite the fact that the cultural globalization variable has the most positive effect on the economic resilience of non-oil countries in the long run. Similarly, no significant effect was observed between the government expenditure variable and the resilience of non-oil countries. According to the results, it is expected that as a result of globalization and increasing political, commercial, and cultural communication, the flow of financial, economic, social, commercial, and technological information exchange between countries will be strengthened and economic resilience will be improved by increasing the number of countries with a high level of cultural globalization.

In recent years the use of artificial intelligence techniques in the financial and investment markets instead of customary quantitative methods has been increasing and gives better performance towards classic methods usually. Artificial Neural Network (ANN), has weaknesses points despite its enormous benefits also. In this study, in order to overcome the weaknesses of the network consists of combining artificial intelligence methods with Evolutionary algorithms, means of artificial neural network combined with genetic algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm algorithm (PSO) to model and daily predict of nominal exchange rates or the exchange rate dollar by Rial in Iran in the period 21.03.2013 to 22.12.2019 is used. This combined model with neural networks method as one artificial intelligence model according to the criteria of MSE , RMSE, MAE, U.Theil compared. The results of this research show the superiority of synthetic neural network model -Particle Swarm algorithm compare to other models of investigation.

Due to the forward-looking nature of economic decisions, forecasting the trend of macroeconomic variables has a fundamental role in economic planning and policies. For this purpose, the present study attempts to extract the financial conditions index for the period 1991-2019, then the movement trend of macroeconomic variables has been forecasted using the Time-Varying Parameter Factor-Augmented Vector Auto-Regressive (TVP-FAVAR). The results show that the financial conditions index has undergone significant changes in recent years, especially in the 2010s, which has had an effective role in the fluctuations of other markets due to the influence and change in the behavior of other macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, forecasting the trend of macroeconomic variables also indicates that this trend is unstable; in other words, instability in the trend of macroeconomic variables is evident and we cannot expect a positive outlook for the above variables.

During the last two decades, with the increase in international exchange of goods and services, environmental problems, including climate change and global pollution, have increased significantly. The global effort to reduce environmental problems has put the importance of production and international trade of environmental goods on the agenda of many developed and developing countries.

Institutional restrictions influence trade and export of these goods. These restrictions include environmental regulations, quality of regulations and rule of law. The aim of the present study is to investigate the effect of this category of institutional restrictions on the export of pollution management goods in developing countries in the framework of the gravity model. In this article, the environmental goods under study include those goods, which are produced or consumed by industry in order to reduce and manage air and water pollution. The econometric model is estimated by panel data for period 1996-2021 and a sample of 131 developing countries, and 196 export destinations using the fixed effects method.

The results show that the institutional limitation from the perspective of strict environmental regulations and the quality of the institutional environment of the countries of origin has an effect on the export of environmental goods that manage pollution. This result is also true from the point of view of strict environmental regulations of export destinations. Therefore, in addition to the traditional factors affecting international trade, institutional restrictions are strong drivers of the export of pollution management goods in developing countries and their export destinations.

Therefore, policies based on institutional restrictions from the perspective of strict environmental regulations in developing and destination countries help the export flow of environmental goods that manage pollution and lay the foundation for the participation of developing countries in the global and regional value chain of environmental goods.

Shadow banking is a type of financial, credit and liquidity intermediary that has attracted a lot of liquidity with little capital by strengthening financial leverage, which ultimately causes a capital market crisis. There are two views on the relationship between shadow banking and banking risk: shadow banking reduces banks' risk or shadow banking increases bank risk. The purpose of this research is to investigate the effects of shadow banking on banking risk, focusing on the perspective of capital adequacy in Iran.

In this study, data from 23 investment funds, 23 insurance companies and 19 banks and credit financial institutions in the period from 2013 to 2018 have been used. ARDL method was also used for data analysis.

The results of this study show that the capital adequacy ratio index for shadow banking has an effect on banks' risk appetite and specific banking characteristics and macroeconomic indicators also affect this issue.

The findings of the research showed that the indicators related to shadow banking are reliable banks in Iran. Other findings of the research showed that the bank's banking index, loans, compared to deposits and the independence of the board of directors are meaningful on the bank's risk-taking in Iran.

Knowledge enhancement: 

According to the few researches that have been done in this field, this research shows the existence of a theoretical relationship between economic and banking indicators from a theoretical point of view.

Uncertainty can have profound consequences for both companies and individuals hoping to make optimal decisions for their benefit. Economic agents in financial markets are generally concerned about uncertainty in the political, economic and environmental spheres. When prior expectations are compromised by the increased likelihood of uncertain outcomes, agents must wait for the waves of uncertainty to dissipate before making sound financial decisions. In this research, the relationship between economic uncertainty shock and illiquidity of the stock market has been analyzed using the Time-Varying Structural Vector Auto-regressive model TVSVAR during the years 2008:4-2020:3. The obtained results indicate that the effect of the economic uncertainty shock on illiquidity was positive and increasing in most of the periods and years under investigation, and the effect of the shock of liquidity volume growth on illiquidity had a decreasing effect in most of the periods and years. The effect of inflation shock on illiquidity increased in all the studied periods and years, but in 2016 and 2020, it had a decreasing effect in the final period.

The household and its choices and decisions as a micro institution have a significant effect on all aspects of the macro economy. This important institution is facing risks and harmful issues, the ability to deal with them, in addition to affecting the well-being of family members, can also affect the macroeconomic situation. The aim of this article is to analyze the effect of positive and negative shocks on the household risk preparation on per capita growth in a selection of OPEC member countries during the period of 2002-2021. So ,the household risk preparation index was created by following Foa (2014) by considering four main components including household access to financial resources, social support, human capital and the economic capacity of the government with the PCA method for selected countries. Then the effect of positive and negative shocks of the mentioned index on per capita growth was estimated using the NARDL method. Findings show in each period, 50.3% of short-term imbalances have moved towards the long-term trend, so that in the long-term, shocks of the household risk preparation are asymmetric and positive (negative) shocks have a positive (negative) effect on the per capita growth of selected countries

The household is an important economic institution, which forms a major part of people's attitudes and beliefs and plays a key role in raising children and the workforce. The vulnerability and ability of this institutional unit to deal with risks are of important impacts on economic performance. On the other hand, developing countries usually face a lack of capital due to low domestic savings and limited access to capital markets. The entry of foreign capital through the receipt of official development aid leads to access to foreign markets with modern technologies and the acquisition of management skills, thus contributing to economic growth. International trade also leads to the provision of capital and machinery, which are necessary for economic development. Thus, the purpose of this article is to analyze the effect of the household risk preparation, official development aid and the trade openness on Iran's economic growth during 1997-2020.

In this article, firstly, following the World Development Report (2014) and using the variables of the sub-indices of access to financial resources, social support, human capital and the economic capacity of the government, the combined index of the household risk preparation is calculated by the method of Principal Components Analysis (PCA) in order to weight the selected variables. Then the following model is specified according to Foa (2014) and Zhao et al. (2021). The model is estimated using smooth transition regression (STR)

 GDPGt=σ'Xt+Ω'Xt. Tγ,c,st+ξt    (1) In equation (1), Xt  is a vector of independent variables (Household risk preparation, official development aid, trade openness, labor force, physical capital and labor productivity), σ'=(σ0,σ1,…,σz)'  is the vector of the linear part's coefficients and Ω'=(Ω0,Ω1,…,Ωz)'   is the vector of the nonlinear part's coefficients. c is the threshold level, γ is the transition speed between regimes, st  is the transition variable, T is the  transition function. In the STR model, the transition between different regimes is done by the logistic function (LSTR) or the exponential function (ESTR). The linearity of the model should be tested and the appropriate transition variable should be selected.  

The results indicate that the household risk preparation index is the transition variable with one threshold level and two regimes (LSTR1), which by passing the threshold level of 0.789% leads to the transfer of the growth function from the first regime to the second. On the other hand, household risk preparation index, trade openness, capital, labor and labor productivity have positive effects on economic growth in both regimes, but their effects have  been intensified in the second regime. This is despite the fact that the variable of official development aid has a positive effect on economic growth in the first regime, but it has no significant effect in the second regime.

According to the results, it is recommended to pay attention to the most important factors affecting household risk preparation, such as the household's access to facilities and financial credits. Since many households in developing countries including Iran do not have accurate knowledge of financial concepts, types of loans and credits, and conditions for receiving loans and credits, it is recommended to increase the level of household awareness in using this type of financial services. The share of loans and credits to the households should be increased and the necessary measures should be taken to facilitate the receipt of loans. On the other hand, it is recommended to design policies in order to increase the minimum wage according to the competence of the workforce, provide specialized training before entering higher education levels, and hold training courses for parents in order to increase investment in the education and health of children. Also, the development of programs based on free and universal health, effective management of foreign debts by directing borrowing resources to highly productive sectors can be proposed to improve the household risk preparation.

The positive role of export diversification in economic growth and productivity has been proven also at the micro level, It has been proven that export diversification is effective on innovation and improving the quality of manufactured goods.Researchers are now focusing on the factors such as R&D, financial development and innovation influencing this relationship. For the past few decades, discussions about the impact of financial development on trade and business patterns have been discussed among economists But there is no similarity in terms of how effective it is and in which economies it has a positive effect.This study examines the effect of financial development on the export diversification of selected developing countries, including Iran, in terms of  domestic credit to the private sector and broad money indicators, and the effect of the control variables of exchange cost, foreign direct investment, fixed capital formation, and the degree of trade openness on the export diversification. In this study, the data from 54 developing countries related to 2005-2018 were analyzed using the Arellano-Bover/ Blundel-Bond two-step dynamic panel data (DPD) method based on generalized method of moments (GMM). The values of the dependent variable (export diversification) are normalized by the method of Finger and Krinin (1979) for all the countries included in the research and are in the range of zero and one. This index is obtained from the absolute deviation of each country's trade structure with the global trade structure. Therefore, the greater the difference, the less variety, and the smaller the difference, the more variety there is in the country's exports. Because the value close to one shows a greater distance with the global export pattern, as a result, that country has less export diversity. For this reason, whenever a variable has a positive relationship with the export diversification index, with its increase, the index number increases, but the export diversification decreases. There are different measuring units of independent (explanatory) variables and dispersion among the data, in order to obtain uniform and integrated data from the minimum-maximum method, the data of the independent variables are normalized so that all variables have values between zero and one. Data normalization is a method to make the range of values of different variables uniform so that the results of statistical analysis have more power. Indicators of financial development, i.e. credit to the private sector and broad money, have a positive effect on export diversification in developing countries.Therefore, it shows that financial development has a significant positive effect on export diversity in developing countries, but the third model shows that the dominant policy in these countries was based on liquidity growth .The variables of exchange cost, foreign direct investment, and trade openness have a positive effect on export diversification. This means that the developing countries seeking export diversification should strive to make financial reforms to provide ground for attracting foreign investment and creating an open commercial environment. Conclusions had showed export diversification has been declining over time in developing countries and has moved away from global export diversification but the growth of export diversification in developing countries every year will increase the diversity of exports in the coming year and will act as a driving factor.The financial development has a positive and significant effect on export diversification in developing countries, the control variables of foreign direct investment, exchange cost and  trade openness in the studied period have a positive and significant effect on the export diversification in developing countries, with the explanation that the index coefficient of trade openness, which is obtained from the ratio of trade to production, has a value of It is a larger number and therefore more important compared to other variables which shows governments should consider financial, economical and commercial reforms while implementing to increase export diversification and economic growth more rapidly. The variable of fixed capital formation is significant, but contrary to expectations, it has reduced the diversity of exports, which is affected by the structure of production and exports in developing countries.

The present study evaluates the economic and social factors in 15 MENA countries during 2010-2016. In this analysis, the canonical correlation method has been used to study the unemployment rate, inflation rate, GDP, internet speed, employment rate, literacy rate, crime, addiction rate, reproduction rate and life expectancy in Mena countries. The results show canonical correlation is significant between selected economic and social indicators in MENA countries in all canonical correlation functions. Special values ​​for canonical functions are 3.33 and 0.1 for the Hotelling-Lawley Trace and the Wilks' Lambda tests, respectively. Also, the first canonical function fits 42%, the second 35% and the third 20% of the canon between economic and social indicators in Mena countries. The total fit of two first canonical functions is 77%. The equations of the standardized focal variables for economic and social indicators show in MENA countries, the higher the unemployment rate, the higher the rate of intentional crime. The increase in the unemployment rate is also affected by indicators such as the increase in inflation and the increase in the literacy rate.