سهیلا شمس الدینی

This research has investigated the effect of managers' overconfidence on the relationship between managerial ability and the risk of falling stock prices of rail transport companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange. The method of conducting the causal research was of post-event type and the research sample includes 5 railway transportation companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange for the period of 1396 to 1400. To test the hypotheses of the research, the regression model was used. A line is used in the form of linear regression. The results of the analysis of the experimental model of the research showed that managerial ability has a negative and significant effect on the risk of falling stock prices. The results obtained from the second hypothesis of the research showed that the overconfidence of managers has a relationship between managerial ability. and weakens the risk of falling stock prices. Managers over-estimate the future returns of business unit projects due to false self-confidence; Therefore, they may overestimate the probability of occurrence and impact of positive shocks of future cash flows resulting from these projects and, on the other hand, have a lower estimate of negative shocks.

The aim of this study was to investigate the correlation between strategic thinking with resolving organizational conflicts and organizational success in the Kerman police headquarters. The research method is descriptive-correlation and the statistical population of this research includes all employees of the Kerman police headquarters. Statistical sample according to Cochran's formula 242 people were selected by stratified random sampling. For data collection, Strategic Thinking Questionnaire with a validity of 0.87 and reliability of 0.88, Organizational Conflict Resolution Questionnaire with a validity of 0.83 and reliability of 0.86 and Organizational Success Questionnaire with a validity of 0.87 and reliability of 0.92 were used. . Data were analyzed using SPSS software version 25 and descriptive and inferential statistics such as mean, standard deviation, Pearson correlation coefficient and multivariate regression were used. The results showed that there is a direct and significant relationship between strategic attitude, strategic determination, advancement based on scientific approach, intelligent opportunism and thinking in time with the elimination of organizational conflicts and organizational success and the most important predictor of organizational conflict resolution and organizational success. , Thinking in time.

Reviewing and evaluating the effectiveness of propaganda can serve as a criterion for converting weaknesses into strengths and adjusting its budget. Also, identifying the factors affecting the effectiveness of advertising can lead to its more professional design and implementation. The purpose of this study is to explain and prioritize the factors affecting the effectiveness of modern economy bank propaganda in Iran. The study population consisted of 50 scientific and organizational experts. According to the research literature, effective criteria and sub-criteria have been extracted. The final indices were extracted using fuzzy Delphi technique and according to experts. Then, using fuzzy AHP method, the ranking of criteria is discussed. The extracted criteria are: demographic characteristics, emotions and individual attitudes of the audience, appearance characteristics of the message, message content, market characteristics, cultural, economic, design and nature of services, advertising methods. The results showed that advertising methods, design and nature of services, message characteristics, personal emotions and attitudes of the audience, demographic characteristics, message content, economic, market characteristics, culture, ranked first to ninth, respectively. dedicated.