سید محمود حسینی صدیق

Drought is one of the phenomena of environmental hazards that occurs in most parts of the world but its manifestation is more in arid and semi-arid regions and also occurs over a long period of time and alternately affects human societies through negative effects. It causes problems for water and agriculture, followed by the economy. One method of assessing drought status is the use of Palmer Drought Severity Indicators (scPDSI). In this study, the scPDSI index has been used to study drought and wet season during the period 1979 to 2018. In this research, data with spatial resolution of 0.5 * 0.5 has been used. The results showed that the cities of Bojnourd, Maneh and Samolghan, Gorgan, Shahroud, Tehran, Qazvin, Arak, Hamedan, Kashan, Bandar Lengeh, Fasa, Bandar Abbas, and west of Khorramabad have experienced severe to moderate droughts; These droughts have covered Iran with 22.06% in spring and 20.12% in summer. In general, the results indicate that droughts occurred from low latitudes to 33.75 ° latitude.

The expansion of the pole toward the tropical belt is thought to be due to climate change caused by human activities, in particular the increase in greenhouse gases and land use change. The variability of the tropical belt width to higher latitudes indicates the expansion of the subtropical arid region, which indicates an increase in the frequency of drought in each hemisphere. In order to change the width of the tropical belt of the Northern Hemisphere in the middle offerings, indices of  precipitation minus evaporation, wind vector orbital component, stream function, tropopause surface temperature, OLR, and SLP have been used. Findings showed that the expansion of tropical belt latitude with stream function to higher latitudes with 1° to 3° latitude and the effect of Hadley circulation subsidence has increased the amplitude of evaporation minus precipitation has shown that the fraction of precipitation minus evaporation 1° to 3° latitude geographically increased. The subtropical jet has increased the movement of the upper branches of troposphere from the Hadley circulation by 2° to 4° latitude, which can have a negative effect on transient humidification systems as well as on the amount of precipitation. The extension of the pole towards the tropical belt, which is a consequence of climate change and hazards, will lead to the displacement of the pole towards the tropical side of the river, thus providing dry tropical belts to the pole; Also, the long-wave radiation of the earth's output has increased by 1° to 2° latitude and has caused an increase in heat in the upper troposphere, which has increased the dryness and slightly reduced the clouds in the upper troposphere and also caused the tropical belt to expand to higher latitudes. Has been. In general, the research findings showed that most tropical belt indicators have been increasing since 1979.

The results of the study showed that the correlation headley cell and subtropical jet on the atmosphere Iran at the level 200 hPa has a positive correlation with a value of 0.4-0.7 to 35 ° latitude and also regression analysis showed that in latitudes between 15 35 degrees north of the subtropical jet 1(m/s) is higher than normal, although in 2017 up to latitudes 30 degrees north showed an increase of 2(m/s), which had a negative effect on rainfall.

The relationship between Hadley cell and olr in the southern, southwestern and southeastern regions of Iran with a value of 0.4 and the Zagros and northwestern heights of Iran with a value of 0.7 and regression with a value of (w/m2) 0.01 more than normal.

It acts as a tangible source of heat in the middle Wordspehr and the heat is added directly to the middle Wordspehr and causes heating of the upper half of the Wordspehr.

Regression 2 to 1 is shown. Low relative humidity along with the dried air mass is located below the descending branches of the headley cell, which has ruled the drought conditions (-0/7) showed that it creates conditions for lack of rainfall and drought.

Since the planet Earth acts like a black body like the planet, and always in a quasi-conditioned state, as much energy as it receives from the sun, it loses energy through long-wave radiation from the earth. The solar radiation absorbed on the ground is converted to heat; however, due to the reflection of the earth, the earth is not hot and hot. The energy reflection process by the earth is called earth reflection or long infrared wavelength, which is indicated by watts per square meter (w / m2). The low OLR values are related to the cloud at high latitudes, so that high values of the long-wave radiation of the Earth's output mean smooth skies and low values of the clouds. This indicator is also used to estimate rainfall in the tropical region. OLR calculations and estimates are a key component of the MJO, MNO, Negative and Positive Phases (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and also to study the assessment of weather indicators.

In the present study, in order to calculate the long-wave IR radiation, the OLR data from 1975-2015 were daily from NCEP / NCAR databases of the National Oceanic and Oceanographic Organization of the United States with a spatial resolution of 2.5 * 2.5 degrees longitude and 4-hour time resolution (hours, 00:00, 06:00, 12:00 and 18:00) were extracted and analyzed. In order to calculate the long-wave radiation of Iran, in the region of Iran's Earth's atmosphere (from 25 to 40 degrees north and from 42.5 to 65 degrees east), using Grads and MiniTab programming facilities, weighted earth integral Watts per square meter. First, the general characteristics of the long wave were studied. In this study, linear regression (VIA) regression methods were used to analyze the trend. In this procedure, the amount of variability of the long wave of earthquake is estimated over time. In the present study, in order to better understand the data and make a more accurate decision about the level of statistical confidence, the method of analysis of the Moran model was used; also, the Moran Model and GeoDa software were used to calculate and map the corresponding graphs. In order to calculate the Moran index or index, first the z and P-value points are calculated, and in the next step, the index is evaluated and significant.

The results of this study showed that the mean long wave length of Iran is 263/3 W / m2. The highest mean longitude of the Earth's longitude is due to latitudes below 30 degrees north, especially in the southern and southeastern parts of the country. Nevertheless, it was observed that more than half of the country's average surface longitude was greater than the average. The lowest mean radiation of the long wave of earth exits was seen as a belt from the northeast to the northwest of the country, but its minimum core is in the northwest and northeast. The lowest daily spatial variation coefficient of Iran's high-tide wave is seen in the southeast and southern coast of the country and in parts of the central and eastern parts of the country. Therefore, the geographic latitudes are higher than the mean long wave of the earth and the coefficient of spatial variation increases. Spatial Distribution The temporal and spatial variations of the temporal and spatial variations of the long wave of Iran's annual output in most areas of Iran have been increasing. The most extreme slope is the increasing trend (on average, between 0.8121 and 0.696296 watts per square meter) in the southern part of the southern belt of the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea. In order to better understand the result of the temporal and spatial changes of the long-wave IR radiation to 4 periods of 10 years (1975-2015), during the first period, the total area of the country had an insignificant increase trend . Of course, in the second period, in contrast to the first period, most of the country's area had a decreasing trend, so that the areas that had a growing trend in the first period had a decreasing trend in the second period. Also, in the third period, again, in the second period, the majority of the country's area was incrementally and statistically insignificant. Of course, in the fourth period, the long-wave radiation of the Earth's surface throughout the southeastern region of Iran has been increasing and statistically insignificant, which includes 14.3% of the country's total area; but in general, during the fourth period, 96% of the country's area has a decreasing trend, of which 50.32% is statistically significant, and 43.53% are statistically non-significant. This suggests that in all four 10-year periods, I have had a photographic process at the outlet of the tidal wave in Iran. The results of the spatial distribution of the local Moran index showed that the long wave of Iranian outbound radiation in the south-east, south, and in the east and west of the region, consisted of a high cluster pattern with 47/60 percent of the country's land area. The cluster pattern regions of the north are drawn from the northeast to the northwest and include the northeastern, north and northwest regions of the country as well as the northern heights of the Zagros Mountains of the country. The spatial self-correlation model has a similar positive correlation with the pattern of spatial autocorrelation, with the difference that the spatial spatial dependence pattern of the second period is decreasing, while the positive spatial self-dependency model from the third period to the next It will slow down. Nevertheless, it can be said that throughout the course of the model, the spatial self-sufficiency pattern negatively affects the recent periods of decline and also the positive spatial self-correlation pattern with 0.75 percent ascendance.

In this study, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Version (ERA5) reanalysis forecast data with 0/25 * 0/25 spatial resolution and 40 years interval (1979-2018) from Vwind and Uwind using MATLAB, GrADS From programming in software in level 400-100hpa. Findings showed that the average vertical structure of jet stream subtropical northern hemisphere in summer is located in the northernmost latitude; And is observed from latitudes of 41 to 45 degrees north. In winter, it has shifted to the southernmost latitudes, and the subtropical core is more intense in winter than in other seasons. The seconds are observed at latitudes between 20 to 30 degrees north. This study polewaard that the jet stream of the northern hemisphere had two periods of increase during the years 1979 to 1997 in the amount of 1 to 2 degrees latitude also from 1999 to 2017 in the amount of 2 to 3 degrees latitude.

The purpose of this study is to analysis monthly OLR of the Iranian surface. For this purpose, the ground OLR data was extracted and analyzed from the ncep/ncar database during the statistical period of 1354-1398. In order to extract the have been used in the Gards software and GIS. Findings showed that by examining the spatial index of Gi statistic, the hot spots of Iran's OLR are 99% and 95% in August, July, June, September and October. Hot spots correspond to areas of the tropics and to latitudes below 30 degrees north; Also, the maximum cold spots are at the level of 99%, 95% in February, December, January, March, April, and the maximum cold spots OLR from the northeast to the northwest. It includes the northeastern, northern and northwestern regions of the country, as well as the northern highlands of the Zagros Mountains.

Changes in OLR can be considered as a critical indicator of climate change and hazard; studies have shown that since 1985, long-range radiation has increased the output of the Earth and is a cause of increased heat in the troposphere. This has led to an increase in drought and a slight decrease in the cloud in the upper terposphere, as well as an increase in Hadleychr('39')s rotation toward higher latitudes. On the other hand, clouds play an important role in the long-wave changes of the Earthchr('39')s output and are adequately evaluated at the global energy scale at all spatial and temporal scales.

Data and methods :

In the present study, in order to calculate the variability and the pattern of seasonal spatial dependence of the long-range radiation output of Iran, OLR data from 1974 to 1976 were daily updated from the NCEP / NCAR databases of the National Oceanic and Oceanographic Organization of the United States of America. To calculate Iranchr('39')s long-range output radiation, in the Iranian atmosphere (from 25 to 40 degrees north and 42.5 to 65 degrees east), using Grads and GIS software. First, the general characteristics of the earthchr('39')s long wave were investigated. To obtain an overview of the spatial status of the seasonal changes of the long-wave and its variability over the country, the average maps and coefficients of the long-wave variations of the earthchr('39')s output were plotted in the spring, summer, fall, and winter seasons. In this study, the slope of linear regression methods using mini tab software was used for trend analysis. Hotspot analysis uses Getis-Ord Gi statistics for all the data.

Explaining the results:

The results of this study showed that the mean of long wave in Iran is 262.3 W/m2. The highest mean long-range radiation output in spring, autumn, and winter is related to latitudes below 30 degrees north, especially in the south and south-east of Iran, with the highest mean in autumn and winter with wavelengths. High output 282-274 W/m2 as well as spring with mean W/m2 295-291 below latitude 27.5° C, which is in Sistan and Baluchestan provinces, south and southeast of  Fars. Hormozgan has also been observed; the lowest OLR average in these seasons is observed above latitude 30 ° N in the northwestern provinces with the lowest mean in the season Yew and winter with mean long wavelength output 213-225 W/m2 and also observed in spring with mean 226-235 W/m2 at latitude 37.5 ° C and latitude 44 ° N in Maku and Chaldaran Is. In summer, the highest OLR averages of 316-307 W/m2 are observed in east of Iran with centralization of Zabol, Kavir plain and Tabas desert as well as west of Iran in Kermanshah, Khuzestan and Ilam provinces, with central length The latitude is 47.50 degrees north and latitude 32/32 east in Ilam province in the city of Musian, due to desertification, saltwater and sand, as well as the absence of high clouds, indicating an increase in the frequency of earthquakes and It is a drought that will lead to shortage of rainfall and increased rainfall in these areas; the lowest average long-range radiation output in summer with W/m2 235-226 extends as a narrow strip from southeast to Chabahar and extends to the middle Zagros highlands in Chaharmahal Bakhtiari province and northwest areas in Maku, Chaldaran, Khoi, Jolfa, Marand, Varzegan, Kalibar, Parsabad, Ahar and Grammy cities. It has also been observed in the northern coastal provinces of Iran including Mazandaran, Gilan, Astara, Talesh, Namin. According to the trend of long-wave radiation output of Iran increased by 0.16 W/m2 and decreased by 0.37 W / m2 with increasing latitude. Seasonal trends indicate that 100 percent of the country has a significant increase in winter and no significant fall in autumn. 21.24% in summer and 18.35% in spring have no significant decreasing trend, which in south-east includes Sistan and Baluchestan, Kerman, Fars and Hormozgan provinces and 78.76% in summer and 81.65% in summer. Spring has a significant non-significant upward trend. The spatial dependence of the hot spots on Iranchr('39')s long-wave radiation at 90, 95 and 99% confidence levels is 45.49% in spring, 37.57 in autumn, and 44.55% in winter. The high wave radiation of summer is 42.2%, which is observed in north of Sistan and Baluchestan province with central Zabul and in east of Lot and Tabas desert and in west of Ilam province with central of Musian. But in spring, autumn and winter in the south and southeast of the country including Sistan and Baluchestan, Hormozgan, Kerman, South Fars, Bushehr provinces and in central Iran including Lot Plains, Desert and Salt Lake and Tabas sandy desert. It is also observed in western Iran in Ilam province, so that these areas correspond to the tropical belt at latitude 30 degrees north. This is due to its location in the subtropical region, the low latitude of Iran, especially south and southeast to central Iran including Lut Plain, Desert and Tabas Desert due to its proximity to the equator, the angle of sunlight is higher and perpendicular. Spun. The spatial dependence of cold spots on long-wave radiation at 90, 95 and 99% confidence levels in spring is 33.44%, autumn is 41.41% and in winter is 44.55%. Cold spots of long-wave radiation are 25.5% in the summer, located at latitudes above 35 ° N in the subtropical belt and include northeast areas in North Khorasan Province in the cities of Bojnourd, Esfarain, Jajarm, Mane and Semlaghan, Safi Abad and northern coastal areas in Golestan, Mazandaran, Guilan, and northwestern provinces of Iran including Ardabil, East and West Azerbaijan, Qazvin and Zanjan North Tfaat Kvh Hay Zagros includes the provinces of Kurdistan, Hamedan, Markazi, Qom, Kermanshah North East part. Minimum OLR cold spot with average output longwave radiation of 213 W/m2 220 northwest of Khoy, Maku, Chaldaran, Jolfa and Marand can be an indicative role for determining convective activity and dynamic / frontal precipitation.

the European Mid-Term Prediction Analysis version (ERA5) data with horizontal spatial resolution of 0.25 * 0.25 degrees and using From air temperature maps, wind vector orbital component, zero level wind vector orbital component at 1000 hPa, wind vector meridian component, wind speed component, meridional performance current function, long wave output of ground output wave for 40 years (1979-1979) and was done using Gardes and MATLAB software. The results showed that the Hadley cell is confined to the lower margin of the subtropics and is due to the density difference resulting from the thermal gradient between the equator and the pole. Due to the rotation of the earth and the Coriolis deviation, heat transfer Low geography is observed in the tropics and its descent is about 30 degrees north and 35 degrees south, and the wind component orbital component winds rise from the west to the east near the earth's surface and from the east to the west at the high level. The meridional wind, the air that ascends, moves in a meridional direction towards the poles, then subsides and reverses in its direction and moves towards the equator, causing the formation of a Hadley rotation. To be. In the Northern Hemisphere, the desert regions of North Africa, the Middle East, Iran, and the southwestern United States are mostly in the Hadley cell dynamic branch, with a relative humidity of 22% Also in the southern hemisphere, the regions of Australia and South Africa with 32% relative humidity.

In this study, the data of (ECMWF) version (ERA5) with spatial resolution of 0.25 * 0.25 degrees and a period of 40 years (1979-1989) of the meridional performance flow function Seasonal changes in the external edge of the Hadley cell in the Northern Hemisphere have been investigated using MATLAB. Findings showed that the outer edge of Hadley cell in winter from 35 to 38 degrees south, in spring from 29 to 32 degrees south, in autumn from 30 to 35.5 degrees South and can be seen in summer from 28 to 29 degrees south; Also, with increasing each year, the outer edge of the Hadley cell in winter, autumn, spring and summer increases by -0.039, -0.048, -0.014 and -0.012 degrees on average. In general, the results show that the expansion of the outer edge of the Hadley cell has increased by 2 to 3.5 degrees latitude in winter and autumn, and shows that it is very prominent compared to the summer and spring seasons. Shows the expansion of the Hadley cell rotation towards higher latitudes.

Increasing temperature, decreasing rainfall, soil salinity, a severe decline in groundwater aquifers, prolonged droughts, revising the crop cultivation pattern, and replacing products that are compatible with the current conditions have become inevitable. Accordingly, the present study was conducted to locate areas susceptible to cultivating saffron and taking into account the ecological needs of this product. In this regard, based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis method in the ARC/GIS10.3 software environment, modeling was performed and then the information was spatially analyzed. The parameters and data used included earth and soil data and climatic data with the duration of a 30-year common statistical period (1985-1015) were collected from synoptic and climatological stations in different regions of Hamedan province. Then, based on the importance of each parameter, using the AHP model, the weight of the criteria was measured at the study area level. For spatial analysis, the information was entered into the Expert Choice Software, and clustering, criterion evaluation, and data integration were performed and finally, the final layer was produced.The results showed that 56.56% of the land in Hamedan Province was used for saffron cultivation in perfectly suitable and suitable classes, 27.7% was in relatively suitable conditions, and 15.69% was in unsuitable classes. Plains suitable for planting saffron included Kaboudar Ahang, Hamedan, and part of Razan. And Asadabad, Tuyserkan, and parts of Malayer and Nahavand were in inappropriate classes. According to the final map, as we move from the south, southwest, and southeast to the north of the province, the potential of the regions for saffron cultivation will increase and this situation will continue until the cultivation of this crop is more justifiable due to ecological factors

Human health is influenced by weather variables in all circumstances, including atmospheric pressure, humidity and temperature around them. Based on climate hazard and climate changes, different parts of human life and economic and social strategies such as health, hydrological pollutants And agriculture had a profound effect, including the discussion of the effects of thermal stress on human health over the last few decades, and has become a major issue in the world's scientific circles. Heat and cold stresses, the exposure of humans to extreme heat and cold, are part of the extreme events, often encountered by people during daily activities or in the workplace, and affecting human physical activities. It is important that, if the body is not cooled through transpiration or cooling mechanism, severe deaths are inflicted on human health; therefore, the person has to reduce his activity in order to reduce the adverse effects of heat stress. Hence, many researchers consider the thermal stress component more important than other components in assessing human health.
In this study, using the physiological equivalent thermometer of PET thermal stress assessment and zoning of human thermal physiological stresses in Iran, with the length of the common statistical period from 1959 to 2011, and for the arsenal of thermal physiological stresses of Iran Forty stations have been used as representatives of Iranian cities. To calculate the physiological equivalent thermal temperature, all the effective meteorological elements in the human energy bill are measured at an appropriate height of climate biology, such as 1/5 meters above the Earth's surface. Data on climatic elements are provided by the Meteorological Organization of Iran. In the absence of data for some courses, linear regression method was used to reconstruct these missing data. After calculating the indices, the frequencies were also monitored and finally, using the GIS technique, the Kriging method of the study area was based on the frequency of occurrence of the indicators. Therefore, in order to achieve the results and objectives of the present study, software such as SPSS for data normalization as well as missing data was analyzed and analyzed using Ray Man's model based on meteorological elements to calculate the equivalent thermal physiological temperature of humans. Also, using the GIS software and Ordinary Kriging method, the best interpolation method was used to zon the human cysiological stresses.
Today, in the planning of human health and comfort, the study of the physiological thermal stress plays an important role. In this regard, weather conditions can be used in the long-term planning of climate and in the short term planning of atmospheric conditions. In the present study, using the thermophysical Thermal Equivalent Thermal Index (PET), the climate climatic Atlas of Iran was prepared on a monthly basis. Calculated values for 40 stations in the country with a total statistical period of 52 years (1959-2011) were prepared. The results of this study showed that the spatial distribution of the physiological equivalent thermal temperature index in the country follows the altitudes, roughness and latitude. Accordingly, the low values of the indicator, which relate to the stresses of the cold, are consistent with the high and mountainous regions as well as the high latitudes, and vice versa, the thermal stresses occur in low and low elevations, as well as low latitudes, which of course, severe heat stresses occurred in the summer. Because throughout this season, the entire country of Iran is dominated by high tidal altitudes at high and low levels of ground pressure (1000 hp) with its warm and dry air, causing extreme heat and The term effects of heat waves on humans, heat loss, thermal contraction of the muscles and skin dryness, infectious or skin diseases, inflammation, sunburn, dizziness, fatigue, and mortality due to an increase in allergies can be mentioned. Significant differences in the environmental conditions of the mountainous masses of Kerman, Yazd and Sistan and Baluchestan provinces with their surrounding areas or low and low northern areas, and especially the Moghan Plain and Sarakhs plain, located in the upper latitudes of the country The issue is that the role of elevation in spatial distribution of the country's climate is much more colorful than factors such as latitude and longitude. The results of the analysis of the monthly thermal physiological stress maps showed that in terms of the area without tension, the march of the month with 47/8% of the area (778424/2km2) is in the first place and has the most favorable environmental conditions, The moon with 43/5 percent of the area (709275/2km2) is in the second position and also in March with 22.6 (359128/9km2) in the third, August and the last month. The highest thermal stresses (29 <PET) occur in August. In this month, 99/9 percent of the country has a thermal stress. The months of July with 90/4% are in the second, June and September respectively with 90% and 70% in the following ranks; Azar and Bahman, respectively, with 69 and 65/1% in the second and third places respectively have. The study of spatial variation coefficient of thermal physiological equivalent temperature index in different months showed that July with a change coefficient of 13/12% had the least spatial variation in the country, and in the month of January, the amount of these changes even reaches 55/55%. Also, based on clustering in Iran, there are twenty three distinct subfield thermal physiological stresses. The geographical dispersion of the territory of these tensile areas shows that the difference in Iran's thermal stress is mainly due to latitude and elevation. This difference becomes more apparent when we ignore the slight differences in these thermal stress areas and categorize them in larger groups. In this case, seven major physical physiological stresses are observed in Iran. The main thermal physiological stress regions differ in terms of seasonal stresses, while the subsoil physiological stress regions reflect differences in the received stress ratios on a monthly scale.

They have investigated the long-term change of the Hadley cell rotation as an expression of the climate hazards associated with the global warming trend over the past half century. By placing most of the arid regions around the earth beneath the substrate branches of the Hadley cells, it indicates the expansion of the subtropical arid zone that results in a drier subtropical climate. Ultimately, this may lead to more desertification than existing boundaries, and the consequences for those areas whose climate is affected by these features are important to manage. In this study, the European Mid-Term Forecast (ECMWF) Version (ERA5) reanalysis forecast data with 0/25 * 0/25 spatial resolution and 40 years interval (1979-2018) from the output long wave radiation data Ground, sea level pressure, evaporation and precipitation, zero-level orbital wind, tropical jet, jet velocity curve, tropopause gap, and meridional flow function using MATLAB software to investigate Hadley cell rotation polarization in the southern hemisphere Been paid. Most of the Hadley cell rotation criteria have been increasing since 1979. Hadley cell latitude with sea level pressure criteria in summer, winter, autumn and spring 1 to 3 degrees latitude, evaporation minus 1 to 3 degrees latitude, zero orbital level 1 to 2 degrees latitude, tropical jet 1 Up to 3 degrees latitude, jet speed curves 1 to 3 degrees latitude The findings showed that with increasing each year, the width of the Hadley cell with the meridional flow function function increased by -0/032 ° C on average. Overall, this study shows that Hadley cell rotation in the southern hemisphere increased by 1 to 3/5 degrees latitude, and since 1999, the intensity of the increasing trend of Hadley cell rotation in the southern hemisphere has been more pronounced. The highest increase in the latitude of Hadley's cell rotation during 1999, 2001, and 2011 extended to a latitude of -33/5 ° C, showing evidence of the expansion of the Hadley cell's rotation toward the pole, increasing drought and water hazards. And it has the air ahead.

Increasing the earth temperature causes anomalies in the planet climate, which affects all aspects of human life. In this study, the determination of temperature changes and the most appropriate model for estimating temperature changes was carried out using the SARIMA time series model in Isfahan. For this purpose, the long-term monthly average temperature of Isfahan during the years 1951-2017 were used in MINITAB software medium. Then, using the time series, an initial guessing pattern was extracted as follows: SARIMA (0, 0, 4) (0, 1, 1) 12 and SARIMA (4, 0, 0) (5, 1, 0) 12 trail and error. The method of the goodness of fit these two patterns resulted in a final pattern SARIMA (1, 0, 1) (0, 1, 1). In the next stage, accuracy and preciseness of this model were confirmed by AIC statistics and analysis of self-correlation charts, the histogram of residual patterns, and other parameters. Finally, based on fitted models, the forecast was made for the next 10 years. The results of this study indicate that these models had almost good accuracy for predicting temperature changes over the coming years. In addition, the assumption of the independency of the residuals was confirmed by the correlation between the model and the remainder of the model due to the inclusion of all self-correlations in their standard limits, and then the histogram of the residual parts of the M1 pattern showed normalilty of the data.