سید پرویز جلیلی کامجو

In the 21th century, one of the indicators that show urban progress is the low level of poverty in these areas. One of the ways to achieve this goal is to increase educational expenses. Which is investigated in this study. Therefore, this study seeks to spatially evaluate the effect of the variables of education costs, growth rate and unemployment rate on the reduction of poverty among urban families in the provinces of Iran and in the period of 2006-2021. In this study, the SGMM-DPD-SAR generalized moment dynamic panel model will be used to investigate the statistical tests using two-stage Arellano-Bover / Blundell-Bond coefficients. The obtained results confirm that, according to the phenomenon of the vicious circle of poverty, the first interval of the dependent variable has a positive effect on poverty with a coefficient of 0.91. The first spatial interval of SAR is also positive and significant 0.06, which shows that there is a positive spatial dependence between the provinces of Iran, that is, the effects of the explanatory variables on the dependent variable have spatial and regional effects. According to the human capital theory of Baker and Schultz, the development of human resources through programs such as education and health emphasizes the reduction of poverty, where the cost of education leads to the reduction of poverty in households with a factor of 0.04, economic growth with The coefficient of 0.01 has a negative and significant effect on the severity of poverty in Iran; And there is also a negative relationship between economic growth and the Amartyasen index, that is, economic growth has positive effects on the rate of poverty reduction in Iran. Unemployment rate also increases poverty with a factor of 0.06.

In the economy, education plays an important role in providing highly skilled human capital needed to create jobs, economic growth, and the welfare of individuals and society. Today, most economists believe that the lack of investment in human capital is the main reason for the low level of economic growth in developing countries, unless these countries use education and knowledge and promote the level of their professional skills. If they do not improve, the productivity and efficiency of labor and capital will remain at a low level and economic growth will be slow and with heavier costs. If the country has the required amount of human capital, it can be said that physical capital will be more productive. Human capital includes education, expertise, skills, and generally the quality of the workforce. Considering that one of the factors influencing the social welfare of countries is achieving a high economic growth rate, the assessment of the causes and factors affecting economic growth is always a special concern of economists, and several growth models have been designed for it.

 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK:

Undoubtly development is necessary in all societies. Developed and developing countries use the same approach that can only be achieved through educational institutions. Therefore, education plays an effective role in improvement of societies to create continuous development in order to promote social and economic progress. Considering the importance of education costs for the development of countries' economies, it can be said that education costs help create wealth. The argument is that the ability to create, adopt, and improve technological and technical progress is associated with investment in human capital and the functioning of the educational system. Therefore, it is useful for countries to invest significantly in these areas in order to train the workforce and develop the necessary skills to increase economic growth and ensure the success of a country.
ncrease economic growth and ensure the success of a country.

The purpose of this research is to evaluate the effect of value-added education, high-level educational expenses and educational quality, trained workforce and capital stock on economic growth among urban households in the provinces of Iran in the period of 2006-2019. This research will use random dynamic panel by application of SAR spatial autoregression generalized moments model and with the use of Arellano-Bauer/Bundle-Band two-stage coefficients in order to estimate the econometric model.In the spatial econometrics department, by forming the proximity matrix and then standardizing this matrix and finally by multiplying the standardized proximity matrix, a new variable is obtained in the dependent variable vector, which is called the spatial lag variable or the spatial lag variable, and thus with the presence of the lag variable spatial. The spatial econometric model is also dynamically estimated. In summary, all spatial models in the form of a spatial random dynamic panel model (SDPD) are as follows:    

The results obtained from the model indicate that the independent variable of GMM has a positive and significant effect on economic growth, that is, part of the economic growth in these regions is due to their economic growth in the past years. The first spatial interval in the SAR model also has a positive and significant effect on the economic growth of other provinces. The added value of education has a positive and significant effect on economic growth with a coefficient of 0.12, when the added value of education increases, it means that the level of skill, knowledge and talent of the workforce increases, and the structure of the workforce leads to the use of skilled and capable personnel. The effect of human capital on economic growth will increase. Education expenditure also has a positive and significant effect on economic growth with a coefficient of 0.53. One of the ways to increase economic growth is creating a transformation in labor productivity and technological development. Promotion of the level of education requires investment in education and increasing educational facilities. Skilled and thoughtful manpower causes the development and expansion of the technologies produced and as the foundation of economic progress and development in the society, and thus by raising the level of education in the society, growth, the economy also increases. In Smith's main growth equation, labor force, land and capital stock are the main factors of production. Adam Smith explains growth as an endogenous phenomenon, according his point of view, economic growth depends on the decision and action of economic agents, especially their savings and investment behavior. Therefore, the capital stock has a positive and significant effect on economic growth with a coefficient of 0.0001, and the more the capital stock increases, the economic growth also increases. The labor force also has a positive effect on the economic growth of households by increasing it by a factor of 0.25. بیش ا

 CONCLUSIONS:

   Based on the discussions of the theoretical foundations and according to the results obtained from the model, it shows that the workforce and the quality of education have a stronger effect on economic growth than the capital stock. In other words, it can be said that economic growth is strongly influenced by the human capital of workers. Therefore, the government should allocate more funds to the education and training organization. Hence the education and training should improve the quality of its schools in various scientific fields, as well as the higher education should raise the quality level of universities in the regions and provinces, especially the deprived areas, and the graduates, in addition to obtaining a degree from their abilities and skills. It is necessary for them to benefit in their educational fields and be able to move them from traditional methods to advanced and modern methods by entering the industry and agriculture sectors and be able to bring their province to high economic growth and development. According to the first spatial break of SAR, the increase in economic growth and development in one province leads to the spillover of economic growth and development to the neighbors’ provinces.

In recent years, the impact of environmental variables on the types of poverty has been considered by environmental economists. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of groundwater resources variables, quadratic groundwater power to consider nonlinear and threshold effects, surface water resources on relative poverty among 30 provinces of Iran in the period 2006-2019. The model used is the Stochastic Dynamic Panel (DPD) model with the Generalized Torque (GMM) method using Arellano-Bover / Bundell-Bond two-stage estimators considering 8 Durbin spatial variables (Durbin). The first spatial interval of relative poverty has also been included in the model in order to consider the spatial effects of the vicious cycle of poverty. The estimated threshold using the Durbin space model is 0.00493 million cubic meters per year. Considering that the quadratic coefficient of extraction is 929/2549, if the water extraction passes above the threshold of 493/1804 million cubic meters per year, the relative poverty line will increase. According to this threshold, the annual water consumption threshold for a population of 80 million people is 39.454 billion cubic meters, while the average extraction of groundwater resources in the above period is equal to 59.927 billion cubic meters, which shows that in throughout the period, Iran has crossed the threshold. Due to the spatial effects, it is suggested that water management policies be changed from political geography management to catchment management.

The goal of this paper is to investigate the effect of education on Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). The EKC hypothesis states that the relationship between per capita income and air pollution follows an inverted U-shaped curve. At the initial stages of development, as per capita income increases, so does air pollution due to rapid economic growth and lack of attention to the environment. However, after reaching a threshold level of per capita income and increasing societal welfare, clean air becomes a demand for a healthy life. This leads to increased attention towards pollution control and environmental protection, resulting in a decrease in air pollution beyond a certain level of per capita income. The results of this research, which examined developing and developed countries using the threshold panel method from 1990-2016, confirm the existence of the EKC in these countries. The study also found that education plays a significant role in reducing pollution levels in these communities. At initial stages of development, education is not widespread enough to prevent society from the dangers of pollution. However, with improved development and educational systems - particularly higher education - environmental issues become a priority for society and political authorities. This leads to intensified policies for pollution control and environmental protection resulting in decreased pollution levels on the downward part of the EKC.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effects of equal education, inclusive education, promotion of opportunities and quality education on sustainable development among urban households in the provinces of Iran over the period 2011-2019. In this research, a stochastic dynamic panel data model is estimated using the Spatial Durbin Generalized Method of Moments and applying the Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond two-stage coefficients. In addition, the proximity and correlation matrix are calculated in the form of a 30 by 30 square matrix. The results show that the estimated coefficient of time lag of per capita income is positive and significant. The weighted average per capita income of each province affects the per capita income of the provinces. So that the higher per capita income of the neighboring provinces, affects the per capita income of that province and its impact is 1.04. The variables of equal education, inclusive education, promotion of opportunities and quality education have positive effects on sustainable development. These variables also have proximity and spatial effects on per capita income. All spatial Durbin variables are significant, which indicates the existence of the spatial effect of independent variables on the dependent variable.

The aim of this study is to explore the revenue generation scenarios of Iranian championship sports for the next 15 years with the aim of foresight in sports economics. In this research, futurism with scenario scenario approach based on intuitive logic method has been used and to design scenarios, trend analysis method and uncertainties and six-stage integrated scenario model have been used. The participants of the present study included 31 domestic and foreign stakeholders of Iranian heroic sports who were selected based on purposive sampling. Data were collected through interviews and open-ended questionnaires. Based on the findings, the analysis of the 29 main factors eventually led to the production of two key uncertainties: "allocation of budget line independent of oil revenues from international economic openings" and "institutionalization of sports ecotourism based on the expansion of the federation's information and communication system. As a result, it was found that even if international economic and political openings do not take place, sports tourism-based planning by federations of different disciplines, if accompanied by professional and ongoing marketing, can lead to sustainable revenue generation in Iranian championship sports.

The purpose of this article is to investigate how education affects happiness in selected developing and developed countries in the period 2005-2016. For this purpose, using dynamic and static panel methods, the factors affecting happiness with emphasis on training indicators have been estimated. The estimation results in selected developing countries have shown that preschool enrollment rate and elementary enrollment rate have no significant effect on happiness, but secondary enrollment rate and university enrollment rate have a significant negative effect on happiness. The estimation results in selected developed countries have also shown that the preschool enrollment rate has a significant positive effect on happiness, which shows the attention of the preschool education system in these countries to improve the level of happiness, but the primary enrollment rate, secondary enrollment and university enrollment rates did not have a significant effect on happiness. Therefore, in general, it can be concluded that the higher the level of education of individuals has caused the lower the happiness of individuals or at least did not have a significant effect on happiness. One of the reasons for this is that with the increase of education, a person's expected happiness becomes more gap with his realized happiness, because the promotion of education increases the level of expectations, and as a result, because the realized happiness does not increase in proportion to the expected happiness, improving the level of education will further reduce happiness. This finding could be another indication of the existence of the Easterlin paradox.

In recent decades the public face of poverty alternative hidden face of Iran's economy. The growth-oriented government in Iran, as the richest decision maker, sees the fight against poverty as its most important socio-economic objective. Government spending is the most important means for achieving intermediate goals such as improving education, health, and economic growth for tackling poverty. Among the different levels of poverty, what is more important in developing countries is absolute poverty. The purpose of this paper is to assess the effect of government spending and human capital on urban poverty in Iran. For this purpose, by analyzing the factors affecting poverty and applying the Markov switching method, the research hypotheses were tested during the period 1985-2014. The results show that urban poverty has two high and low poverty regimes. The probability of staying in a low poverty regime is higher than the probability of staying in high poverty regime. Also, the results show that human capital and the ratio of education expenditures to total government expenditures have had a significant negative effect on the absolute urban poverty index. Based on the results of the study, it is suggested that the share of government education expenditures be increased to reduce urban poverty.

An examination of the inflation trend in Iran shows that this variable has had fluctuating fluctuations. Instability Inflation affects many economic variables. Inflation and its instability are affected by various economic variables, including the behavior of the central bank, part of which is due to changes in the components of the monetary base. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the overflow of fluctuations in foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank on inflation fluctuations in the Iranian economy during the period 1352: 1 to 1395: 4 using the MGARCH-BEEK model. The obtained results show that the shocks and fluctuations of the previous period have a direct and significant effect on the fluctuations of the current period inflation rate. Also, the shocks of the previous period of the central bank's foreign exchange reserves have a direct impact on the fluctuations of the current period of the central bank's foreign exchange reserves. But the shocks of the previous period of inflation do not affect the fluctuations of the central bank's foreign exchange reserves. The results also show that the shocks of the previous period of the central bank's foreign exchange reserves have a significant and direct effect on inflation fluctuations. This means that the overflow of fluctuations in foreign exchange reserves on the inflation rate has occurred in the Iranian economy and shocks caused by foreign exchange reserves lead to uncertainty and inflation turbulence.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of macro-political, economic and financial risk regimes as transfer variables based on the International Index of International Risk Guidance (ICRG) on the impact of per capita real Gross domestic product (GDP), life expectancy, unemployment rate, inflation rate, school enrolement (education) rate and urbanization degree on the life insurance demand.

This research is based on the theory of expected utility in the uncertainty of von Neumann and Morgenstern (1947) developed by Yary (1965) and then Lewis (1989). It will use the Panel Smooth Threshold Regression Model (PSTR) using three different logit transfer functions for the Middle East countries in the period of 1990-2017.

The threshold in the model with political, economic and financial risk was 73.72, 30.00 and 29.2, respectively. Also, the transfer speed between two regimes was estimated at 60.07, 0.3685, and 0.049 in all three models. The highest transmission speed was related to political risk, which led to the failure of the Logit Transmission curve and the three-dimensional procedure. The lowest transfer rate is related to financial risk, which led to a very low curvature of the logit transfer function.

The results of the three models estimation showed that real interest rate does not have a significant effect, which can be due to underdevelopment of financial market, interference in the money market and banking system, and the determination of interest rate in the selected countries. In a less risky rigim, life insurance demand sensebility is lower in inflation rate and life insurance is recognized as an asset with long-term returns. Per capita real GDP and life expectancy rate also have a threshold effect on all three different logit transfer functions. In a less risky political and financial regime, the life insurance demand is more sensitive to urbanization rate. School enrolement rate in a less risky rigim also has a greater impact on life insurance demand. 

The aim of this study was to evaluate the spatial effect of income inequality, relative poverty, real per capita income growth, unemployment, real exchange rate and real interest rate on real purchasing power of durable goods using the generalized SAR-GMM-DPD spatial self-regression torque model with two-stage coefficients. Arellano-Bover / Bundell-Bond is a random dynamic band between provinces of Iran in the period 2006-2017. The results show that according to Dosenbury's theory of consumption theory, durable goods have a broken demand function; Thus, the first interval of the dependent variable with a coefficient of 0.009 has a positive effect on the purchasing power of durable goods. The first spatial interval of SAR is also negative and significant -0.007 which indicates the negative spatial dependence between the provinces of Iran, ie the effects of independent variables on the dependent variable have indirect spatial and geographical effects. Income inequality with a coefficient of -0.43 has a negative effect on the purchasing power of durable goods of households. The relative poverty line with a coefficient of -0.06 has a negative effect on purchasing power, and as the relative poverty line moves to the upper deciles of income, the purchasing power of durable goods decreases.

Resource curse hypothesis is one of the most complex theories, which is based on Popper's fictitious science methodology in economics and economists designed different models to test this hypothesis. But the contradictory experiences in different countries did not prevent the hypothesis from becoming a law and even a theory. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of oil revenues channels on Iran's economic growth during 1979-1959 using the Sakhs and Warner model. The results showed that oil revenues alone are not detrimental to economic growth and have a direct positive effect on Iran's economic growth. But when according to Sachs and Warner's proposed model, other explanatory variables such as physical investment, the degree of openness of the economy, the relationship of exchange and human capital are introduced into the channels of influence, due to the effect of oil revenues onthese variables and then the indirect negative impact on economic growth, The effect oftotal oil revenues on growth is sharply reduced and much less than the initial value. The result also showed that the increase ofphysical investment, the degree of openness of the economy and the promotion of human capital, has a positive effect and increasing the exchange relationship has a negative effect on Iran's economic growth. In addition, the significance andtype of effect of each channel on economic growth was determined and it was observed that except for the human capital channel, the indirect effect of oil revenues on Iran's economic growth from each channel was negative.

Choosing an optimal portfolio is one of the main goals of financial management. The initial strategy is to zero the risk of non-systematic risk by diversification in the optimal portfolio. In this research, WCVaR applied model and linear programming method for stock market risk measurement and selection of a weight optimized portfolio were used. WCVaR is one of the newest risk measurements and covers the defects of the VaR and CVaR models. This research 11-year period information (1387 -1397) was used from actual data of 10 different companies accepted in Tehran Stock Exchange. This research uses data from ten companies accepted in TESM during the period of 1397-1387. The results of model estimation using the linear programming method in Matlab software showed that changing the benchmark optimization would lead to a change in the weight of the basket stock and change the strategy of diversification in the optimal portfolio. The results of estimating the model using the linear programming method showed that changing the optimization criterion will lead to a change in the stock weight of the portfolio and a change in the diversification strategy in the optimal stock portfolio. Among the 44 baskets with different weights, the most optimal

This research evaluates the effect of the LEG (Legatum) indicator and GEM entrepreneurship index on the real economic growth of selected Islamic countries during the period 2006-2017 by using the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model using two distinct gentle transfer functions. In the first and second models, the transfer velocity between two regimes was γ ̂LEG=7.589 and γ ̂GEM=0.1283 the threshold was also estimated to be θ ̂LEG=61.11 and θ ̂GEM=376.1. The transfer speed between the two regimes in the first model is very high, which leads to the refraction of the curve and the transfer surface. The variables of Legatume and entrepreneurial index with coefficients of 0.2658 and 0.0211 in the first model and 0.7232 and 0.2059 in the second model have a positive and significant effect on economic growth. The highest impact on economic growth in both Legatume regimes has the economic participation rate variable with coefficients of 0.5018 and 0.6366, which also has a threshold effect, and the effect of the rate of economic participation on economic growth increases with the transition to a high-income regime. The most significant effect on real economic growth in the low diet and in the high entrepreneurial regime is the formation of domestic capital with coefficients of 0.9017 and 2.823, respectively. The least significant effect on economic growth is using the Internet in the low Legatume regime and human capital in the high Legatume and entrepreneurship regime. In this way, it is suggested that Islamic countries in the transition path to development pay special attention to the indicators of success and entrepreneurship simultaneously, in order to protect the impact of other economic variables, on real economic growth.

The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the effects of changes in surface water resources and extraction of groundwater resources on net migration in 28 Iranian provinces during the period of 2003-2016 using the SGMM-DPD model with application of Arlano-Bond/ Blundell-Bond two-stage coefficients. The results of the model estimation have shown that the extraction of groundwater resources has a nonlinear and threshold effect on inter-provincial migration, meaning that, before the threshold level per capita of 3343 cubic meters, the extraction of water through the strengthening of the agricultural sector has a negative effect on migration, but after extraction of groundwater resources abnormally and crossing the per capita threshold of 3343 cubic meters and increasing the probability of drought risk and famine of groundwater resources, this variable has a positive effect on net migration. Thus, the threshold for extracting groundwater resources per capita of 3,343 cubic meters is considered as a danger to widespread inter-provincial emigration. Nevertheless, the variability of surface water resources has not a significant impact on migration which is due to the very limited contribution of surface water resources to supply water in the provinces which cannot be a sufficient incentive for immigration.

Solving the Water conflict and optimal allocation of common water resources are the most important service of cooperative game theory to water economics. Zayandehrud basin is the most important disputed basin in several neighboring provinces in the first class basin of Iran's central plateau. The purpose of this research is to use the game theory with application of Bankruptcy approach (conflicting claims) in order to optimally allocate surface and underground water resources in the Zayandehrud basin, with regard to Zayandehrud need(tourism sector demand), water transfer to Yazd and Kashan, Gavkhoni wetland water use and demand of three sectors: drinking, mining, and agriculture. In order to estimate the river natural water right (tourism sector demand), the Montana method (tenant) was used under three different scenarios: weak, acceptable and optimal tenant during the period 1963-2017, which was 77.7, 130.5, and 466.5 m3 respectively yearly estimated. The conflicting claims theory in various scenarios for the river water right (tourism sector) showed that in all three proposed scenarios based on five different bankruptcy theory rules, Proportional, Constrained Equal Wards, Constrained Equal Losses, Talmud, Random Arrival, CEA rule was the most desirable method for 5 sectors (except agriculture). In order to choose a more equitable method, the Gini coefficient and the Lorenz curve were used which indicated that CEA rule has less inequality than other rules. Thus, regard to the increasing demand gap in the Zayandehrud Basin, water allocation based on the criteria of bankruptcy theory is proposed.

In the orthodox economy, domestic and foreign security is one of the tasks of the welfare state and even of the minimalist state to protect private property rights. Military expenditure dependent on the stage of economic development may affect real economic variables differently. Within four models, this study uses wavelet coherence approach to assess the relationship between public order and military expenditure with oil revenues and private investment in Iran during the period 1959-2017. The results of the first model show that at four-year and 16-year time scales during the period 1969-1978, the growth of military expenditure and the growth of oil revenues are not only the co-phase but also the growth of oil revenues is a leading variable for the growth of military expenditure. The results of second model indicate that there is a coherence between the public order expenditure growth and the oil revenues growth in four-year horizons during 1960-1978, and they are also co-phase from 1997 to 2005. At time scales up to 8 years during 1993-2008, another type of relationship is observed. These variables are co-phase, but the public order expenditure growth is not a cause of oil revenues growth. The results of the third model show that the private investment growth and the public order expenditure growth act against each other, but they are co-phase in the long-run. The results of the wavelet power spectrum also show that the greatest energy of both periods is due to public order and military expenditure growth in the pre-revolution period.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of macroeconomic variables such as exchange rate, short-term interest rate, per capita income, unemployment rate on Durable Goods Consumption among urban households of Iran's provinces during 2006-2017. In this study, a random dynamic panel using the generalized spatial Durbin momentum model SGMM-DPD-SDM spatially generalized torque model using Arellano-Bover / Blundell-Bond Two-Step coefficients will be used to estimate the econometric model. Also, to determine the proximity matrix, the proximity and correlation method was used in the form of a 28 by 28 square matrix. The results showed that the real exchange rate with a factor of 11/735 had the most negative impact and the real per capita income with a factor of 8/102 had the most positive effect on the real on  Durable Goods Consumption. The real interest rate has the lowest effect with a coefficient of -0/133 and is almost in line with the experimental results, because buying foreign exchangeable durable goods is not subject to receiving facilities in the Iranian banking system and the share of domestic producers of durable goods can be exchanged in the Iranian market. This is exactly 25%, which confirms the strong impact of the exchange rate on reducing the Consumeof durable goods. Because durable goods that can be exchanged for import, whose price increases exactly with the exchange rate, in 2019, they have a 75% share of the Iranian market. Unemployment rate with a coefficient of -0/101 has a negative impact on purchasing power.

The study of inflation in Iran indicates fluctuations in it. Instability Inflation affects many economic variables. On the other hand, inflation and its instability are affected by economic variables, including the behavior of the central bank, such as changes in the monetary base components. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to investigate the overflow of fluctuations in the central bank's legal and additional reserves on inflation rate fluctuations in the Iranian economy during the period 1352: 1 to 1395: 4 using the MGARCH-BEEK model. The results showed that the shocks and fluctuations of the inflation rate were not significant on the fluctuations of legal reserves and additional reserves. While shocks caused by legal reserves and excess reserves have a significant negative impact on inflation fluctuations. Legal reserve shocks also had a direct impact on excess stock fluctuations. But excess reserves shocks have a negative impact on legal reserve fluctuations. Based on the results of inflation rate fluctuations, it has had a direct and significant effect on fluctuations in excess reserves. Fluctuations in legal reserves and additional reserves on inflation fluctuations were also significant. Therefore, the overflow of fluctuations in legal reserves and additional reserves on inflation rate fluctuations in the Iranian economy occurs significantly and leads to increased inflation fluctuations.

The drought effect that means water shortages due to drought events, is that one percent of the water access limitations, ceteris paribus, how many percent reduces the economic growth. In the last decades environmental economists have been answering this question that is whether there is a level of consumption and discharge of water resources that reverses the positive impact of water on production. To this end, using data from 30 provinces during the period 1383-1396 and application of Spatial Aotu Regressive General Momentums Model Dynamic Panel Data A new interpretation of the drought and thresholds effect for the extraction of groundwater resources on the real GDP was presented. The results showed that groundwater resources at the surface and squared have 556/7311 and -0/0065 coefficients. The threshold was estimated at 42/825 billion cubic meters per year. Extracting over this threshold has a negative environmental, economic, social and political impact that leads to a reduction of real GDP in the provinces of Iran. Thus, the drought effect on the provinces of Iran is not rejected. Human footprints are also visible in underground water supplies. Also, the spatial lagged variable has a coefficient of 0/1064 which indicates that the discharge of basin whose geographic location is from an environmental dimension independent of political divisions has spatial effects on the real GDP of adjacent provinces. It is suggested that the authorized and unauthorized water rent is controlled with using temporary water ownership instead of permanent ownership. The demand side is controlled and the economic production of water is strengthened using water market tools. So underground water resources have been reduce until reach below the threshold to zeroing the negative consequences of resource extraction.

In recent decades the public face of poverty alternative hidden face of Iran's economy. The growth-oriented government in Iran, as the richest decision maker, sees the fight against poverty as its most important socio-economic objective. Government spending is the most important means for achieving intermediate goals such as improving education, health, and economic growth for tackling poverty. Among the different levels of poverty, what is more important in developing countries is absolute poverty. The purpose of this paper is to assess the effect of government spending and human capital on urban poverty in Iran. For this purpose, by analyzing the factors affecting poverty and applying the Markov switching method, the research hypotheses were tested during the period 1985-2014. The results show that urban poverty has two high and low poverty regimes. The probability of staying in a low poverty regime is higher than the probability of staying in high poverty regime. Also, the results show that human capital and the ratio of education expenditures to total government expenditures have had a significant negative effect on the absolute urban poverty index. Based on the results of the study, it is suggested that the share of government education expenditures be increased to reduce urban poverty.

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the effect of income inequality (II) on happiness inequality (HI) in Iran. For this purpose, the literature was reviewed for the relationship between II and HI including income marginal happiness descending, income smoothing theorem and inverted Maslow pyramid of happiness. Then, the factors that affect HI were estimated by means of a threshold regression model during the period of 1973-2014. The estimation results showed that II has a nonlinear and threshold impact on HI. Thus, the Maslow happiness theorem that describes the impact of II on happiness at the top of inverted pyramid was confirmed. In this case, when Gini coefficient is less than 0.416, in the low II regime, an increase in II has a significant negative impact on HI. This is because of being at the bottom of Maslow pyramid. However, after the threshold point, in the high II regime, an increase in II has a significant positive impact on HI because of moving up the pyramid. Therefore, smoothing income in a cross cutter or time series decreases the downward slope of income marginal happiness, which can decrease HI. Based on the results, policymakers are suggested to pay attention to the Gini threshold point of 0.416 to decrease HI. In addition, when II is higher than the threshold level, they can improve happiness distribution with income redistribution policies.

Based on economic structure of a country, defense spending and security costs as a public good, can have a positive or negative impact on private sector activities. This research applies a partial coherence approach for the period 1959-2017 to evaluate the relationship between defense spending and security costs as two important parts of the state budget, with the formation of a fixed private capital and oil revenues with a constant tax effect. The results showed that by keeping the effect of tax revenues as fixed in four-year time scales, and in the period 1969-1978, defensive expenditures and the formation of fixed private capital were not co-phase and defense expenditure was a leading variable for the formation of fixed capital, which shows a confirmation of crowding-out effect in Iranian economy. In contrast, in period 1989-1997, these two variables are co-phase and no crowding-out effect has occurred. Also, in short- and long-term, the formation of private fixed capital is a leading variable that justifies the need for security and increasing its costs. During period 1969-1978, in the short-term, two variables of defense spending and oil revenues are in opposite phase. The two variables of security costs and oil revenues are in co-phase in the short run and the phasic difference arrows indicate the causality of oil revenues to security costs during the years 1986-1999. Based on the structure of Iranian economy and the fact that Iran does not export military equipment, it is suggested that defense spending be optimized in order to control the crowding-out effect and security costs to be increased to the point that they have a positive impact on the formation of private equity.

Operational risk is not general definition and it has a unique definition for each company, which depends on the industry and the market of the company. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the effect of stochastic fluctuations on operational risk hedging European options on the S & P500 index. So this research will compare the operational risk level in the Markov Switching and Black Scholes models using the Var. The implicit volatility values for the three confidence levels of 90, 95 and 99% for different values of call options K, different maturity T, and different interest rate r were calculated for both models using S & P500 index call options information. The results of this study showed that due to higher gamma and random variation of operational risk, the coverage of transaction options in the Markov Switching Model compared to the Black Scholes Standard model was higher by using the criterion of value-at-risk op Var's coverage is at 90, 95, and 99 levels. The results show that OP VaR is inversely proportional to  ,    It also reduced doubling of the OP Variant's maturity over the agreed price. Finally, the results show that the interest rate has an asymmetric effect on OP VaR. As is clear from the figure, for K <S, the OP VaR has been lowered by rising interest rates, and for K> S interest rates have reduced OP VaR .

Abstract: The housing market is one of the most important subsectors of capital markets that have the most backward and forward linkages with other sectors. Because of the high dependence of Iranian economy to oil revenues, oil price shocks can be affect the housing market. The aim of this study is to analyze the business cycle of the housing market, with emphasis on the impact of oil shocks on the return of housing. According to APM model, regardless of portfolio selected, several factors affect the return of housing assets that in this study, the risk and shocks of macroeconomic factors including money supply, private sector investment, housing facilities allocated by special Maskan Bank and oil export revenues, have been analyzed on the housing return by a Markov regime-switching GARCH model during the period 1982 -2016. The results have shown that the return of housing in the Iranian economy has three high, moderate and low return regimes. So that the volatility of the housing return is different in each of the three regimes. Housing returns volatility at the low return regime is more than volatility of returns at the moderate and high return regimes. Therewith in the 35 years of the research period, housing market has been 13 years in the moderate return regime, 20 years in the low return regime and only 2 years in the high return regime. The results also showed that based on Dutch disease hypothesis oil shocks, liquidity and private investment have a significant positive impact on the return of housing but the housing facilities of Maskan Bank have a significant negative impact on the return of housing.