فهرست مطالب سیدمحمدعلی حاجی میرزایی

Energy is a vigorous input for any economy and a determining factor in economic growth and development. The production, supply, distribution, consumption management, and conservation of energy resources are key areas, which are influenced by governance. This article intends to evaluate approved energy policies and propose improvements to energy governance in Iran. Methodologically, this research can be considered descriptive-analytical, utilizing document analysis and content analysis to interpret and analyze data. Data were gathered from various sources, including legitimate documents (general policies, permanent laws, development program laws, and budget laws) spanning from the year 1368 to 1400, as well as from published research, articles, interviews, and expert opinions. Analysis of longitudinal and diagonal relationships of approved energy policies revealed alignment between upstream documents such as general policies, five-year development plans, and annual budget laws, but shortcomings in governance have led to insufficient comprehensiveness, continuity, coherence, and convergence. This lack of governance threatens Iran's long-term energy security. Therefore, six policy packages are proposed to reform the current governance system in the country's energy industry.

The subject of this article is determining the oil optimal production path in one of the Iranian oil and gas brown field in Persian gulf, while the development of the field performed under the buyback contractual framework. In this research we have optimized a dynamic equation using numerically Bellman equation in Matlab program .We have considered different and possible oil price projections and discount rate scenarios. We have compared the differences between optimal production path and actual (and contractual) profiles. The results show that optimal production path is different from operator actual profile in both high and low discount rate (respectively 20% and 1%). Although contractual production profile and optimal production path for alternative discount rate is harmonization, However, Production profile bids by contractor matching with the calculated optimum production model in option of a high discount rate, in the early period, is Verified the expected behavior of international oil companies. But its incompatibility with actual performance the field indicates a incompatibility between the production plan bids by the contractor with the field real possibilities.

Maximization of the economic value of the exploitation of oil and gas resources in economic literature as the target state (as owner of the resource) is known. This goal is achievable when the contract conditions (which regulate the behavior of investors in the exploitation of the reservoir) is also taken into account. In this paper, the dynamically optimal oil production in the one of the Iran's oil fields in the South West with a buyback contract framework is considered as a case study by the use of Bellman equation in Matlab program and with regard to expected price path and interest rate scenario, the results shows that the optimal production path traced by model in comparison to path specified in the contract is different. In addition, Comparison these results and contractual profile to the expected behavior of international oil companies that is proposed high production level in early years of reservoir life cycle are consistent. Note that, any changes in the contract parameters would the constant parameter of cost function and minimum production rate condition in the model. According to the have been that in Status of High expectations of prices, Optimum path specified in the model, there is no reaction to changes in these factors.

Strategic goal of privatization can be economic, social and cultural development, Decreases of companie's costs and size of the government. This study has been done in the framework of benchmarking method in order to transfer experience and the achieved results from reform in different countries and to present executive strategies to the electric power industry policy makers and planners.It is proposed that the government should plan and put into action a comprehensive program for streamlining the path and the atmosphere of the activity of the business institutions and empowerment and support of non-governmental sector and conveyance of the government properties to the non-governmental sector in a comprehensive and integrated manner. Establishment and activation of need infrastructure for accomplishment of the government responsibilities and protection of the market activities are necessary conditions in entering the process of privatization of the electric power industry. Furthermore, the extension of competition atmosphere and increase of compatibility of economic institutions are the requirements of the success of the privatization program. Reforms in electric power industry and privatization of power plants are time consuming processes and any hastiness in these processes will lead the privatization to the path in which not only the expected goals are not achieved, but also in addition to demolish of national wealths, it will result in extensive economic, social and political consequences. The way conveyance of power plants, shall not lead to another monopoly. As one of the most important prerequisites of having competitive market and encouragement of private sector to have presence in electricity market, establishment of competition in wholesale and also retail podiatry of electric power. In other words, establishment of production capacity in proportionate with the consumption peak, formation of electricity stock exchange and possibility of competition among the suppliers at the retail level guarantee the competition and optimal behavior in the market.

In this study we have reviewed the changes in oil price and its macro-effect on Iranian Economy, by vector-autoregressive (VAR) method with seasonal data for oil price and other variables in the above period.The result from the model of estimation and also interpretation of impulse response (IRFs) and variance decomposition (FEVDs), shows that there is a meaningful relation between oil and other variables.The government expenditure and money supply is highly affected by oil, and positive shock of oil price will weakens the tradable sectors and strengthens non-tradable sectors in the economy. Also, through price increase of consumable imported goods and the increased cost of foreign input will positively and continuously affect the consumer price index. Due to dependency of internal production to import, the economy will face inflation which is caused by external factors.

Optimal utilization of hydrocarbon resources has always been the most challenging issue for Iranian senior policy-makers. Empirical evidences in a number of oil-based economies during the past 3 decades imply the necessity of establishing petroleum funds, which aim at protecting the transfer of direct positive and negative shocks resulting from the international oil price volatility to the domestic economy as well as taking into account the security of inter-generational interests and structural reforms. In this regard, setting up the foreign exchange reserves account has been the most important experience in Iran. Research works show that despite controlling the effect of oil price variations in international markets, at least on the flow of treasury fund, the other prime expected objectives of setting up the petroleum fund have not been achieved due to a numbers of reasons. The author believes that the existing legal shortcomings in establishing the fund and the lack of a general understanding in the Iranian system of management regarding the objectives of the fund are among the prime factors involved in the failure of achieving the expected objectives. The prevailing conditions in the international oil market implies that any delay in proper decision-making to save the petroleum revenues and controlling its spending pattern would result in loosing the existing historical opportunities.