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علیرضا امیری

  • علیرضا امیری، علی حسینی خواه*، عفت عباسی، ناصر شیربگی
    هدف مقاله، مطالعه روند شکل گیری گروه های فکری و جریان های مطالعات برنامه درسی در ایران بوده است. طرح پژوهش کیفی که از دو روش کتابخانه ای (مطالعه اسناد) و تحلیل محتوای کیفی (استقرایی) استفاده شده است. میدان آماری در روش کتابخانه ای، اسناد مربوط به رشته و از ابزار فیش برداری و پرسشنامه استخراج منابع بهره برده شده است. میدان آماری در روش دوم خبرگان و اساتید دانشگاه در رشته مطالعات برنامه درسی ایران بوده که با استفاده از روش نمونه گیری گلوله برفی انتخاب، و با استفاده از مصاحبه نیمه ساختار مند داده ها گرد آوری شد. تعداد نمونه ها تا حد اشباع 15 نفر بود. سپس، با استفاده از روش تحلیل مضمون داده ها کدگذاری و در نهایت تجزیه و تحلیل با استفاده از روش کلایزری انجام شد. اعتبار و روایی پژوهش بر اساس قابلیت اعتماد و اطمینان پذیری، قابلیت انتقال و عمومیت و تاییدپذیری شاخص ها، بررسی و تایید گردید.نتایج به دست آمده نشان دهنده این است که مهم ترین جریان و گروه های فکری بعد از شکل گیری رشته مطالعات برنامه درسی در ایران، به ترتیب: کلاسیک، فرایند شناختی، عمل فکورانه، مطالعات تطبیقی، فناوری نوین، نو فهم گرایی، روش های نوین، بومی سازی و نوبستر سازی بوده است.
    کلید واژگان: مطالعات برنامه درسی، رشته مطالعات برنامه درسی، تحلیل محتوای کیفی
    Alireza Amiri, Ali Hosenikhah *, Effat Abbasi, Naser Shirbagi
    The field of curriculum, as an epistemological field or one of the specialized fields of the field of education, was identified in 1918 with the publication of Franklin Bobitt's curriculum book. And in Iran, it was established in 1365 and at Khwarazmi University of Tehran, by accepting students in the master's degree in curriculum studies. The most important definition of curriculum is the recognition, prediction, organization and shaping of educational activities in the field of learning for students. Lexically, it is rooted in the Latin word currere, which means a racecourse or a field for running. Curriculums, like a competition field, which has a clear and defined beginning and end, require a well-defined and predefined beginning, end, and route. In general, curriculum refers to that scientific field that includes the following areas: 1- Curriculum basics 2- Curriculum engineering 3- Curriculum implementation 4- Curriculum change 5- Curriculum evaluation 6- Curriculum history 7 - Curriculum research (2019, Fathivajargah). While curriculum theory is considered an important part of curriculum from the dominant point of view of scholars in this field, it seems that many decision makers and decision makers of educational systems have ignored this importance. Even some administrators have institutionalized this misconception that curriculum theory has nothing to do with their daily decisions (Glatthorn, 2005). . (1992) admitted that the history of the field of curriculum has been neglected and most of the history of education has been considered. This (historical poverty) has led to theoretical poverty in the field of curriculum. History educates today's people, and today's people create tomorrow's history. In fact, today's people are indebted to yesterday's history and responsible for tomorrow's history, and for this reason, history is one of the most appropriate means of guiding and educating people (Bjorklund & Sandahl, 2023). An important point is that few historical researches have been done in the field of curriculum studies in Iran, and they have mainly focused on curriculum planning in the field of education and training, and have paid less attention to the field of curriculum studies itself. As an example of curriculum architecture research in Iran, the result of Mosapor et al (2015) and Khoshi at al (2019) research, although it was very comprehensive, but it was in the field of education and paid less attention to curriculum as an academic discipline. Is. In fact, one of the most important topics related to the field of curriculum is to examine the process of formation of intellectual groups and trends in the field of curriculum in Iran. Intellectual groups and intellectual currents in this research refer to those who base their work on a specific procedure and point of view and conduct research and authoring based on the same. On the other hand, examining the developments and the historical course of curriculum streams and groups is a necessity that many countries, including Iran, have realized its importance for a long time, but have paid less attention to it from a research and historical perspective. The field of curriculum studies in Iran was first formed by translating the classic works of key theorists of the field of curriculum studies, and the translation of the works of Tyler, Beauchamp, Klein and other theorists was a priority. This tradition of translation is still in force, only instead of translating classic works and Tyler, now most of the works of neophyte experts are given priority. In this part of the research, it is important to mention two points. Although these currents have a specific origin at the time of their formation and each one was formed in a specific period, but these currents have continued to exist with strength and weakness, and it is not the case that a current was formed in a specific period and has ended, in other words, no flow has stopped and is still going on. For example, the classical flow of the field of curriculum studies and Tyler's works can still be seen in the works of many researchers, and the basis of the research is many experts in the field of curriculum studies. The second point of currents and groups of thought is that this trend and evolution can also be seen in experts in the field of curriculum studies, that is, experts with experience in the field of curriculum studies, first discussed classical theories and then applied this trend in They have continued their work and are currently engaged in researches on neo-realism and localization in the field of curriculum studies. And the last important issue is that researchers and professors have changed over time and even some respected professors have criticized their past views. For example, Dr. Fathi Vajargah calls himself advanced, middle and late Fathi. These few lines show the necessity of doing research in this field. Based on the purpose of the research, the researcher sought to discover the currents of curriculum studies in Iran. In order to achieve the results, he has acted in the way mentioned in the following research.The aim of the article was to study the formation process of intellectual groups and currents of curriculum studies in Iran.A qualitative research project that uses two library methods (studying documents) and qualitative analysis (inductive).The statistical field has been used in the library method, documents related to the field, and using the tool of data extraction and the resource extraction questionnaire. The statistical field in the second method was experts and university professors in the field of curriculum studies in Iran, who were selected using the snowball sampling method, and data were collected using semi-structured interviews. The number of samples until saturation was 15 people. Then, the data was coded using thematic analysis method and finally the analysis was done using the Claizari method. The validity and reliability of the research was checked and confirmed based on reliability, transferability, generality and verifiability of the indicators.The obtained results show that the most important currents and intellectual groups after the formation of curriculum studies in Iran, respectively: classical, cognitive process, intellectual practice, comparative studies, new technology, neo-realism, methods It has been new, localization and modernization.
    Keywords: Curriculum, Curriculum Studies Field, Qualitative Content Analysis
  • مهدی رازانی*، لیلی نعمانی خیاوی، امین رنجبری، علیرضا امیری
    نقش برجسته ها و کتیبه های صخرهای روشن ترین و بی واسطه ترین روایات را از تاریخ بیان می کنند سازندگان این آثار توجه ویژه ای نسبت به وقایع زمان خود داشته اند و به درستی دریافته بودند که سینه سخت سنگ و صخره ها مقاوم ترین بوم برای ثبت اندیشه ها و رخدادها و شرح فتوحاتشان خواهد بود صحت این تشخیص امروزه بر ما روشن گردیده است چراکه بسیاری از این آثار توانسته اند از گزند حوادث مختلف طبیعی، جنگ ها، تخریب های انسانی و غیره عبور کرده و سلامت خود را حفظ نمایند و امروزه در زمره میراث کهن کشورمان به ما واگذار گردند. مقاله حاضر شامل استنساخ جدیدی از سنگ کتیبه اورارتویی سقین دل واقع در بخش مرکزی شهر ورزقان، استان آذربایجان شرقی است که بر بدنه یک تخته سنگ مربوط به 2750 ق.م نقر شده است و نقوش خط میخی بر روی آن کنده کاری شده و به سبب عوامل گوناگونی دچار آسیب دیدگی گشته است. برای دستیابی به پاسخ این سوالات، علاوه بر مطالعات تاریخی و باستان شناسی، بررسی های میدانی و همچنین استفاده از روش های نوین مستندسازی شامل اسکن لیزری، فتوگرامتری و طراحی دیجیتال متن کتیبه انجام شده است تا بتوان روند تغییرات این کتیبه را در طول زمان بررسی کرد.
    کلید واژگان: کتیبه میخی، اورارتویی، سقین دل، استنساخ، فتوگرامتری
    Mehdi Razani *, Mehdi Razani, Amin Ranjbari, Alireza Amiri
    Reliefs and rock inscriptions It can be said that they express the clearest and most direct narrations from history. The creators of these works paid special attention to the events of their time and they understood correctly that the hard chest of stone and rocks is the most resistant canvas for recording thoughts. The truth of this diagnosis has become clear to us today because many of these works have been able to survive various natural disasters, wars, human destruction, etc. and be left to us today as part of the ancient heritage of our country. The present article contains a new reproduction of the Urartian stone inscription of Seqindel located in the central part of Warzgan city, East Azerbaijan province, which is inscribed on the body of a stone slab dating back to 2750 BC, and cuneiform patterns are carved on it and He has been injured due to various factors. , field investigations as well as the use of new documentation methods including laser scanning, photogrammetry, and digital design of the text of the inscription have been carried out in order to be able to understand the process of changes of this inscription during Time checked.
    Keywords: Cuneiform Inscription, Urartu, Saqindel, Reproduction, Photogrammetry
  • علیرضا امیری*، یحیی زارع مهرجردی

    سنگ بنای اصلی استحکام و پیشرفت یک کشور، امنیت موجود در آن کشور است. عوامل متفاوتی از قبیل عوامل نظامی، اقتصادی، فرهنگی و اجتماعی بر امنیت ملی یک کشور موثر است. مطالعات سیاسی و تاریخی معاصر نشان می دهد که اهمیت عوامل اقتصادی، فرهنگی و اجتماعی کمتر از اهمیت عامل نظامی نیست. امنیت غذایی به عنوان یک عامل اقتصادی و اجتماعی، جایگاه ویژه ای در تقویت امنیت ملی دارد که عدم وجود آن باعث تهدید امنیت سیاسی، اقتصادی، زیست محیطی و فرهنگی و حتی امنیت نظامی کشور می شود. در دنیای معاصر امنیت غذایی به عنوان یک حربه در دست قدرت های بزرگ برای کنترل کشورهای ضعیف تر استفاده می شود. در این پژوهش تاثیر تولید گندم به عنوان یکی از اقلام اساسی در سبد غذایی کشور بر امنیت غذایی و امنیت ملی با استفاده از رویکرد پویایی شناسی سیستم بررسی شده است. همچنین برای افزایش ضریب امنیت غذایی، دو سیاست پیشنهاد و شبیه سازی شده است.

    کلید واژگان: امنیت ملی، امنیت غذایی، سیستم غذایی پایدار، پویایی سیستم، تولید گندم، شبیه سازی
    Alireza Amiri *, Yahya Zare Mehrjerdi

    The main pillar of the robustness and progress of a country is its existing security. Various factors such as military, economic, cultural and social factors affect the national security of a country. Contemporary political and historical studies show that the importance of economic, cultural and social factors are not less that military ones. Food security aseconomic and social factors have a special position in improving the national security whose absence causes political, economic, environmental, cultural and even military security threats. In the contemporary world, food security is as a weapon in the hands of super powers to control weaker countries. In this research, the effect of wheat productionas one of the essential items in the country’s food basket on the food and national security using system dynamics approach has been investigated. Moreover, in order to increase the food security ratio, two policies have been proposed and simulated.

    Keywords: National Security, Food Security, Sustainably Food System, System Dynamics, Wheat Production, Simulation
  • علیرضا امیری، شیرین زردشتیان*

    هدف:

     هدف از انجام این پژوهش طراحی مدل موانع فراروی توسعه ورزش جودو در ایران بود.

    روش شناسی:

     تحقیق حاضر از نوع ترکیبی است و طرح انجام آن از نوع متوالی-اکتشافی است. جامعه آماری این پژوهش را در مرحله کیفی صاحب نظران به تعداد 16 نفر و در مرحله کمی نیز روسا و معاونان فدراسیون و هییت های استانی و ورزشکاران نخبه به تعداد 52 نفر به صورت هدفمند تشکیل می دادند. ابزار اندازه گیری این تحقیق در بخش کیفی مصاحبه نیمه ساخت-یافته براساس نظریه داده بنیاد اشتراوس و کوربین (1997) و در بخش کمی پرسشنامه محقق ساخته براساس نتایج بخش کیفی بود. برای تحلیل داده ها در بخش کیفی از تحلیل جهت گیری و در بخش کمی نیز از مدل معادلات ساختاری به کمک نرم افزار Smart PLS 3.2.7 استفاده شد.

    یافته ها

    نتایج بخش کیفی نشان داد که مقوله محوری تحقیق موانع فراروی توسعه ورزش جودو در ایران می باشد که شامل 65 کدباز و 11 زیرمقوله موانع روساختی، موانع زیرساختی، موانع ورزشی، موانع ارتباطی، موانع مدیریتی، موانع فرهنگی، موانع اقتصادی، موانع آموزشی، موانع رقابتی، عدم توسعه مستقیم و عدم توسعه غیرمستقیم در قالب 5 مقوله اصلی شرایط علی، زمینه-ای، مداخله گر، استراتژی ها و پیامدها می باشد. یافته های بخش کمی نیز نشان داد که شرایط علی (34/0=β،10/2=t)، زمینه ای (52/0=β،82/2=t) و مداخله گر (20/0=β،45/2=t) بر موانع توسعه جودو ایران تاثیرگذار است. همچنین موانع توسعه جودو ایران بر استراتژی ها (91/0=β،09/34=t) و استراتژی ها بر پیامدها (74/0=β،113/3=t) تاثیر معناداری دارد.

    نتیجه گیری

    شرایط علی، زمینه ای و مداخله گر می تواند بر موانع توسعه جودو ایران تاثیرگذار باشد و فدراسیون جودو و کوراش جمهوری اسلامی ایران می تواند با تدوین استراتژی های مناسب به پیامدهای مطلوب در زمینه کاهش موانع توسعه جودو ایران دست یابد.

    کلید واژگان: موانع، توسعه، جودو
    Alireza Amiri, Shirin Zardoshtian *
    Objective

    In recent years, we have witnessed some successes and failures of our country’s national judo players in major international competitions, including the World competitions and Olympic Games, which have caused a lot of concern among sports officials. The aim of this study was to design a model of obstacles to the development of judo in Iran.

    Methodology

    The study is of a mixed type with an exploratory sequential design. The statistical population of this research was composed of 16 experts in the qualitative phase, and 52 heads and vice presidents of the federation, provincial sports delegations, and elite athletes in the quantitative phase, all selected through a targeted sampling method. A semi-structured interview based on Strauss & Corbin’s (1997) Grounded Theory and a researcher-made questionnaire based on the results of the qualitative section were used in the qualitative and quantitative phases of this study, respectively.  . To analyze the data in the qualitative section, directional analysis was used and in the quantitative part, the structural equation model was utilized with the help of Smart PLS 3.2.7 software.

    Results

    The results of the qualitative section showed that the main category of the research is obstacles to the development of judo in Iran, which includes 65 codes and 11 subcategories such as structural obstacles, infrastructural obstacles, sports obstacles, communicational obstacles, management obstacles, cultural obstacles, economic obstacles, educational obstacles, competitive obstacles, lack of direct development, and lack of indirect development in the form of five main categories of causative conditions, contextual conditions, interveners, strategies, and consequences. The findings of the quantitative section also showed that causative conditions (β=0.34, t=2.10), contextual conditions (t=0.22, β=0.52), and intervening conditions (β=0.20, t=2.45) affected the obstacles to the development of judo in Iran. Also, the obstacles to Irans’ judo and Kurash development have a significant effect on strategies (β=0.91, t=34.09) and strategies on outcomes (β=0.74, t=3/113).

    Conclusion

    The causal, contextual, and intervening conditions can affect the obstacles to the development of judo in Iran, and the Federation of Judo and Kurash of Iran can achieve the desired outcomes in reducing obstacles to the development of judo in Iran by formulating appropriate strategies.

    Keywords: Management Obstacles, Economic Obstacles, Cultural Obstacles, Infrastructural Obstacles, Competitive Strategies
  • یحیی زارع مهرجردی*، علیرضا امیری

    وقوع جنگ های جهانی اول و دوم باعث گردید قدرت نظامی به عنوان امنیت ملی به کشورهای جهان القاء شود، اما با فروپاشی ابرقدرت شرق سطوح گوناگی برای امنیت ملی مطرح شد که این برداشت را تحت الشعاع قرار داد. پژوهشگران علوم سیاسی معاصر، ابعاد مختلفی را برای امنیت ملی برشمرده اند. با توجه به موقعیت ژیوپلیتیک کشور ایران و اهمیت تقویت امنیت ملی، شناسایی عوامل موثر بر آن ضروری است. یکی از این عوامل، امنیت غذایی است که چگونگی تاثیر آن بر امنیت ملی در این تحقیق بررسی شده است. عوامل امنیت غذایی و معیارهای امنیت ملی در پژوهش های انجام شده، شناسایی شد. با استفاده از پرسشنامه فازی چگونگی تاثیر هریک از عوامل امنیت غذایی بر امنیت ملی، از دیدگاه خبرگان منتخب اخذ شد. با بکارگیری تکنیک تاپسیس فازی، عوامل امنیت غذایی به ترتیب تاثیر بر امنیت ملی مرتب شدند. از یک مدل پویایی سیستم برای شبیه سازی تاثیر عوامل منتخب امنیت غذایی بر امنیت ملی استفاده شد. نتایج حاصل بیانگر تاثیر مثبت سلامت و کیفیت مواد غذایی و سرعت پاسخگویی و تاثیر منفی قیمت واحد بر امنیت ملی است، همچنین متغیر سرانه مصرف تا رسیدن به حد تعادل دارای تاثیر مثبت و بیشتر از حد تعادل دارای تاثیری منفی بر آن است.

    کلید واژگان: امنیت ملی، امنیت غذایی، تاپسیس فازی، پویایی شناسی سیستم، شبیه سازی
    Yahia Zare Mehrjerdi *, Alireza Amiri
    Introduction

    Due to the geographical and political position of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the region and the importance of strengthening national security, it seems very necessary to identify the factors affecting it. National security is a complex and ambiguous concept that emerged after World War II and is now of great importance in all countries of the world. One of the factors affecting national security is food security, and we discuss how it impacts national security.

    Methodology

    Food security factors and national security criteria are identified in the researches. Given the power of the fuzzy method in explaining linguistic concepts, a fuzzy questionnaire on how each of the food security factors affects national security was designed and sent to selected experts. Using the fuzzy TOPSIS technique, which is a simplified and effective method to rank options, food security factors were classified in order of impact on national security. Factors of food health, food quality, food per capita, unit price, response speed, food freshness, food diversity, food storage, and waste are ranked first to ninth, respectively. For select the food security factors, the mean of the largest and smallest similarity index was calculated, and the factors that had a similarity index higher than this mean were selected to enter the system dynamics stage. Thus, five factors that had the most significant impact on national security - food health, food quality, food per capita, unit price, and response speed - were selected and transferred to the next step. Using the system dynamics method, which is an effective method for simulating complex systems, a system dynamics model was used to simulate the impact of selected food security factors on national security.

    Results and Discussion

    Regarding the impact of food health on national security, it can be said that if food is not healthy, the health of the community is jeopardized. As a result, due to the unhealthiness of the community and the staggering costs of treatment, it threatens national security. On the other hand, increasing food health increases community health and national security, but the relationship is not exponential. That is, it cannot be said that the more food and community health increases community security, but when food health reaches its peak, its impact is asymptomatic on national security.About the behavior of the second factor, it can be said that the food per capita of the society should be sufficiently available to the people. When people's per capita food is not enough, it has little effect on national security; if food per capita reaches a balanced level, it increases national security. If people's per capita food exceeds its balance, it will no longer have a positive effect on national security, but it will seem to have the same impact as the per capita food shortage. Since the per capita food is too balanced, the excess amount is either consumed by people, in which case it causes obesity and its underlying diseases and endangers the health of society and ultimately national security, or in the form of waste, which in this case reduces the economic power of society and threatens economic security and ultimately national security. If the country is a food importer, the increase in food per capita will increase food imports, and the amount of foreign exchange output to buy food will increase, which can ultimately harm national security.
    On the impact of food quality on national security, if food is not of acceptable quality, it can increase public dissatisfaction and harm national security. Increasing the quality of food can increase general satisfaction and improve national security. But this increase appears asymptomatic because firstly, the quality of food can rise to a limited extent, and secondly, enhancing the food quality to a certain extent increases food security, and, ultimately, national security.As to the effect of speed of response in food supply on national security, it seems that accelerating food supply will growth public satisfaction and finally increase national security, and reducing the speed of response will reduce national security. The effect of increasing the speed of response in food supply on national security is asymptomatic because, firstly, increasing the speed is somewhat possible and more than that is impossible, and more than that will not improve public satisfaction. Reducing the speed of food supply, especially in crises such as floods, earthquakes, etc., causes general dissatisfaction in society. Concerning the impact of food unit prices on national security, it can be said that increasing food unit prices augment public displeasure, and rising public discontent is a potential menace to national security. An increase in the unit price of food leads to a decrease in national security. 

    Conclusion

    The results of the simulation show the positive effect of health and food quality and response speed and the negative impact of unit price on national security. Also, the per capita consumption factor until it reaches equilibrium has a positive effect, and more than the balance threatens national security

    Keywords: National Security, Food Security, Fuzzy TOPSIS, system dynamics, Simulation
  • برزو یوسفی*، سید رضا طبایی عقدایی، علیرضا امیری

    در این تحقیق، تعداد 48 اکسشن گل محمدی (Rosa damascena Mill.) از نواحی مختلف ایران (11 اکسشن بومی کرمانشاه و 37 اکسشن از استان های دیگر کشور) در آزمایشی با طرح بلوک های کامل تصادفی با سه تکرار در ایستگاه تحقیقاتی مهرگان استان کرمانشاه در سال های 1385-1390 کشت شدند و صفات عملکردی، مرفولوژیک و فنولوژیک آنها مورد مطالعه قرار گرفت. هر کرت آزمایشی مشتمل بر سه پایه با فاصله 3 متر × 3 متر بود. آبیاری قطره ای هر 10 روز یک بار انجام شد. همچنین، کودهای شیمیایی و سموم در مزرعه استفاده نشدند. صفات مورد نظر بعد از استقرار نهال ها در سال های سوم الی پنجم ثبت و مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفتند. نتایج تجزیه واریانس مرکب نشان داد که تمام صفات مورد بررسی در بین سال های آزمایش و در بین اکسشن های مختلف، تفاوت معنی داری (P<0.01) داشتند. واریانس اثر متقابل اکسشن × سال در تمام صفات معنی دار بود (P<0.01). با توجه به نتایج می توان اکسشن های کرمانشاه کدهای 10، 11، 2 و 3، کردستان 1 و اصفهان کدهای 7 و 4 را به عنوان اکسشن های سازگار و دارای عملکرد گل و اسانس مناسب جهت کشت در شرایط آب و هوایی استان کرمانشاه معرفی کرد.

    کلید واژگان: اسانس، صفات فنولوژیک، عملکرد گل، گل محمدی (Rosa damascena Mill.)
    B. Yoosefi *, S.R. Tabaie-Aghdaie, A. Amiri

    Forty eight damask rose (Rosa damascena Mill.) accessions from different parts of Iran (11 native accessions of Kermanshah and 37 accessions from other provinces of the country) were cultivated in a randomized complete block design with three replications in Mehregan research station, Kermanshah province in 2006-2011 and their yield, morphological, and phenological traits were studied. Each experimental plot consisted of three individual plants with a distance of 3 m × 3 m. The drip irrigation was carried out once every 10 days. Also, the chemical fertilizers and pesticides were not used in the field. The desired traits were recorded and analyzed after the seedlings establishment in the third to fifth years. The results of combined analysis of variance showed that all the studied traits were significantly different (P<0.01) between the experimental years and between the different accessions. The variance of accession × year interaction in all the traits was significant (P<0.01). According to the results, the accessions Kermanshah codes 10, 11, 2, and 3, Kurdistan 1, and Isfahan codes 7 and 4 could be introduced for the cultivation in the climatic conditions of Kermanshah province as the compatible accessions with suitable flower and essential oil yield.

    Keywords: essential oil, phenological characteristics, flower yield, Rosa damascena Mill
  • علیرضا امیری، یحیی زارع مهرجردی*، عمار جلالی منش، احمد صادقیه

    مسئله پایداری سیستم تولید گندم برای تغذیه نسل کنونی از منابع موجود، به صورتی که تغذیه نسل های بعد به خطر نیفتد، یکی از مسایل مهم عصر حاضر است. در این پژوهش، عوامل موثر بر سیستم تولید گندم در ایران و پایداری آن با استفاده از رویکرد پویایی شناسی سیستم بررسی شد. نمودارهای علی-حلقوی ارتباط این عوامل با تولید گندم، با توجه به سابقه رفتار آنها و پژوهش های مرتبط، ترسیم و تجزیه وتحلیل شده است؛ سپس با ترسیم نمودار جریان، مسئله شبیه سازی شد و بعد از اعتبارسنجی، سناریوهای مختلفی، ازجمله افزایش استفاده از کودهای ارگانیک و کاهش استفاده از کودهای معدنی برای افزایش کیفیت خاک و افزایش سطح تکنولوژی کشاورزی و نوسان های حجم بارش سالیانه برای مشاهده تاثیر آنها در پایداری سیستم تولید گندم، شبیه سازی و بحث و بررسی شد. با توجه به حساسیت زیاد تولید گندم به نوسان های بارشی و سطح تکنولوژی، افزایش برنامه ریزی و سرمایه گذاری برای استفاده بهتر و موثرتر از این دو منبع توصیه می شود.

    کلید واژگان: پایداری سیستم، پویایی شناسی سیستم، تولید گندم، سیستم غذایی، شبیه سازی
    Alireza Amiri, Yahia Zare Mehrjerdi *, Ammar Jalalimanesh, Ahmad Sadegheih
    Purpose

    The problem of wheat production sustainability is an important issue that quarantines the availability of people's food at present as well as the nutrition of the next generations. Food is the essential human's need and has been used from human beings' creation until the end of its life. The existence of systems satisfying such requirements and the sustainability of them is always essential for the survival of the human race. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the sustainability of the wheat production system in Iran.  

    Design/methodology/approach

    In this research, using the system dynamics approach, the sustainability of Iran's wheat production has been studied. The literature review section of this paper concentrates on several research papers in this context, considering the systems dynamics approach. In this study, an introduction has been expressed to the human's need for food and the position of wheat as the primary source of food in meeting this need in Iran. System dynamics is one of the most commonly used approaches for modeling and simulating environmental and socio-economic phenomena. The wheat production system covering environmental, economic, and social subsystems has been taken into consideration as a case to model the problem. Key factors affecting wheat production have been collected based on a literature review. 50 years historical data for essential factors such as rain, wheat harvesting area, agricultural technology, fertilizers, population, wheat imports, and exports have been used in modeling and hence in the mathematical formulation of the problem. Based on the history of these factors and related research, the dynamic hypothesis of the problem has been defined, and the causal diagrams of the relationships between critical factors and the wheat production have been developed. After modeling and formulation, the problem has been simulated and validated. Then, various scenarios have been proposed and simulated for the sustainability of the wheat production system, and the results have been addressed. The scenarios for changing the machinery level, reducing chemical fertilizer's use, increasing organic fertilizer use, and rainfall fluctuations have been simulated one by one, and their combinations have been simulated, respectively.

    Findings

    The simulation results indicated that the production of wheat is highly sensitive to precipitation and technology levels in the field. Therefore, it is better to focus more on such two factors and to have more concentration on them. Since water is the most crucial resource in wheat production, it would be better to concentrate the research and development efforts on water management technologies in the field. Due to the high sensitivity of wheat production to precipitation fluctuations and technology levels, more investment and better plans should be provided for the better and more efficient use of the two sources.  

    Research limitations/implications

    While numerous factors such as pesticides, seeds, planting and harvesting, irrigation methods, management, human resources, and related requirements affect wheat production, due to the large scale of this research, only the most critical factors were selected for the study. Examining the behavior of each of the above-mentioned factors will result in a better awareness of the existing reality and better planning for wheat production.  

    Practical implications

    The wheat production system includes environmental, economic, and social subsystems as well as numerous and complex relationships between the human and the environment. The systemic nature of such interdependencies and interactions needs systematic approaches and integrated assessment tools. Identifying and modeling correctly the intrinsic characteristics of the wheat production system assure preserves or increases its essential results over the time and help governmental organizations and institutes to move towards sustainable development and to set policies that encourage positive changes.

    Social implications

    Since the proposed model is expected to help the government and agricultural institutions in planning wheat production efficiently, it will make the country move towards self-sufficiency in wheat production, which in turn results in psychological and social security in terms of food and increases social sustainability.

    Originality/value

    To the best knowledge of the authors, there is no comprehensive investigation on the sustainability of wheat production in Iran. The literature review indicates that the agricultural context is almost limited to a particular zone and this problem has not been addressed on the national scale.  Thus, this is the first research that examines such a problem.

    Keywords: Food system, System sustainability, Simulation, System Dynamics, Wheat production
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