فیروز رنجبر

In recent years, the discussion of climate change and its effects on the environment is one of the most important topics in studies and researches all over the world. One of the important effects of climate change in the world is the change in the conditions of food production and supply components, and finally endangering food security. The purpose of this research is to investigate and analyze the effect of climate change on the components involved in food security. In a part of this research, climate change and its effect on food security in Iran have been emphasized. The theoretical information of this research was extracted from the results of the research conducted in the field of the research topic and the method used to analyze the effect of climatic conditions and food security indicators was the DEMATEL matrix. The results showed that climate change affects the assets of the food system, including production, transportation, storage and processing, and its consequences can disrupt the status of available food and access to food. Finally, reducing access to resources and disrupting livelihoods and food security can lead to conflicts and conflicts between people locally. Also, the results show that many climatic factors have changed in recent years in the country. The increase in temperature, especially the night temperature, change in rainfall regime and decrease in rainfall in some areas, increase in intensity and duration of drought, lack of water resources, etc. are among the consequences of climate change and global warming in the country. The effect of climate change in the country can severely endanger activities, assets, investment and the food system in general. The impact of various factors such as sanctions in the field of finance and technology of the food system, the effect of the increase in exchange rates on imported goods and inputs, excessive withdrawal of water resources, etc. increase food. The impact of various factors such as sanctions in the field of finance and technology of the food system, the effect of the increase in the exchange rate on imported inputs and goods, and the indiscriminate withdrawal of water resources can increase the consequences and risk of climate change in the food security sector. Considering the climatic diversity and the factors involved in Iran's climate, the effects of climate change can also be locally different, so its effects on food security will also have a variable degree of risk.

Unexpected events, whether natural, industrial or man-made, are considered as surprising events. If surprised at the time of unexpected events, irreparably reduces the public trust on the ability of the government to reduce the damage caused by these events. The purpose of this investigation is to pay attention to the crisis, to extract the factors of surprises in the crisis and to provide solutions to prevent it. Q method is used in this investigation and the statements related to surprise factors in crisis are extracted and scored by statistical society and research colleagues. By using the colonial competition algorithm and programming the algorithm in MATLAB software, viewpoint 4 was extracted as the most important one and appropriate solutions were presented, which include the study and proper location of the warehouses of the relief facilities and the investigating the appropriate number and location of these warehouse. and to prepare the people to familiarize themselves with the possible crises and analyze the response at the time of crisis, through public media and social media. Furthermore studying and predicting widespread crises and designing relief facilities and suitable routes to help the more vulnerable points are derived as the proper solutions in this investigation.

The impact of climate change on natural resources has become one of the greatest human concerns at the local, regional and global levels in recent years. One of negative impact of climate change is change of aridity index trend and transformation of hydro-ecological conditions in different regions. The main objective of this research is to evaluate the trend of Aridity index (IA) in northern stations of Iran during the period 1982-2009. To do so, the Penman equation was used to calculate the daily potential evaporation. Thereafter, the drought index values were calculated using the precipitation and potential evaporation parameters. Results demonstrate that precipitation values have been decreased during 1982-2019 in northern strip of Iran, so that precipitation has decreased by 300 mm during 2012-2019 in Bandar-e-Anzali station compared to the 10-year period (1982-1991). Temperature values have also increased in the northern stations of the country. Air temperature has increased about 1, 1.7, 0.1, 1.9 and 1.) 5C° ) in Rasht, Ramsar, Gorgan, Babolsar and Bandar-e-Anzali stations respectively. Furthermore, drought index represents a decreasing trend in all studied station during 1982-2019. The trend of Aridity index during 2019-2012 compared to the 10-year period (1982-1991) are -0.178, -0.011, -0.091, -0.142 and -0.420 in Rasht, Ramsar, Gorgan, Babolsar and Anzali stations, respectively.

As the city grows and expands and urbanization, cities are facing new dimensions of threats and a high volume of damagedue to the concentration of population and wealth. Therefore, the vulnerability assessment of cities to environmentalhazards and developing appropriate strategies to reduce losses is inevitable. The city of Ardebil, due to its strategicand border position in the northwest of Iran, has always been considered as one of the areas threatened by the enemy. But itis more vulnerable to other urban points due to problems and failures of physical, social and economic problems. Thus, themain purpose of the present study is to assess the vulnerability of the decayed urban fabric of the city of Ardabil from thepoint of passive defense. This study is applied and the general approach is descriptive-analytical and data and informationis mainly collected through field methods (interview and observation). In the present study, based on the specific conditionsof the decayed urban fabric of Ardebil city, as well as previous research studies, 10 indexes have been defined to assessthe vulnerability, and sub-indexes have been considered for each index. In the next step, using the expert’s opinions, eachcriterion and indicators are weighted and prioritized using AHP method in Expert Choice software and finally using GISmaps the vulnerability maps of the decayed urban fabric of the city of Ardabil is provided. The results shows that %47.83 ofthe fragments located in the decayed urban fabric area had a high vulnerability, %33.71 moderate vulnerability and %18.46had low vulnerability.

Extreme climatic events are rare phenomena that are rare in severity and frequency, and since the ecosystems and physical structures of human societies are regulated by normal climatic conditions, they can rarely prepare for the occurrence of these phenomena. Changes in the occurrence of extreme events can often have significant effects on ecosystems and society compared to changes in moderate climatic conditions. The purpose of this study is to investigate the trend of temperature furnaces in the northern strip of the country. The trend of temperature extremes in the two observation periods of 2015-1982 and the future period of 2055-2020 has been extracted. The data used in this study are the minimum and maximum recorded temperatures of the studied stations on a daily basis and for the next period, the micro-scaled output of the CanESM2 general circulation model based on 4.5RCP and 8.5RCP scenarios has been used. The results showed that the minimum and maximum daily of the studied stations will increase in the next period, which is accompanied by a steeper slope according to the 8.5RCP scenario. Relatively, Gorgan station has the highest temperature increase among the studied stations. Statistical analysis shows that in all stations and in each period of the observed and modeled period, temperature oven indices are associated with trends and changes so that cold extremes (ID icy days, TN10p cold nights FD forest days , TX10p cold days) with decreasing slopes and warm extremes (SU25 summer days, TR20 tropical nights, TN90p warm nights and TX90p warm days) face an increasing slope in both observation and future periods. The slope of some night temperature indices such as tropical nights and warm nights seems to be more intense than other indices.

The UN Population Demographics in 2014 has shown that there is a reversal of the demographic trend of urban and rural areas, with the world's largest population (54%) living in urban areas, and this trend is increasing, while by the year 1990 A small population lived in cities. This undocumented development leads to major changes in the environment, including the reduction of natural surfaces and the replacement of these with artificial and human land covers. Urban areas are often identified with impenetrable and constructional surfaces that often have a negative impact on ecosystems. Urbanization changes the natural landscape into human-made with different physical characteristics. Changing and transformation in surface land covers has an important effect on energy balance and local climate. As a result, urban climate is formed from the climatic factors of the city that are changing with the impact of urban factors over time.In order to study the effect of urban expansion on climatic condition of the Tehran, daily precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature data were extracted from Mehrabad synoptic station during a period of 50 statistical periods (1966-2016). Different methods and tests have been used to analyze trends and changes in climatic conditions. The trend in the cluster data series was studied using the Mann-Kendall test. The Mann-Kendall test, is a base-rating nonparametric test for trend analysis which was first used by Mann for public applications in 1945 and revised by Kendall in 1948 and presented in a different way. Then, RClimDex software was used to extract the process of extreme weather indicators. This software has been developed by Zheng and Yang (2004&2005) at the Canadian Weather Service's Climate Research Branch. In the present study, 23 indicators of ETCCDI indicators were used using RClimDex. Indicators are divided into five groups of indicators based on percentiles, periodic indicators, absolute indices, threshold indicators and other indicators (such as temperature change overnight).Based on non-graphical Mann-Kendall Test, both temperature parameters (minimum and maximum temperatures) have an incremental trend during the 1966-2016 period, which is more evident at the minimum temperature. While precipitation in the same period of time has been a slight downward trend. Also, based on the Mann-Kendall graphical test, when there is a significant trend in data, the lines ui and u'i interrupt each other. The results of the Man-Kendall test show that the increase in minimum temperature is higher than the maximum temperature. Moreover, during 1976-1986, Tehran experienced rapid physical growth, and this period coincided with an increase in temperature, which continued until the end of the period. Based on the analysis of the temperature extremes index, the cold days indices (TX10p) is facing a downward slope. On the other hand, the Hot Days Index (TX90p) faces an upward slope in the period of 1966-2016. In fact, it can be concluded that during the study period, the percentage of hot days in the Mehrabad station is increasing and cold days are facing a decreasing trend. These results are consistent with the studies of Rahimzadeh et al. (2011), Niw et al. (2006) and Brown et al., 2010, on the trend of the temperature range of the nightly temperature range. Conclusion In recent years, the spread of cities and their growth has had a great impact on the environmental conditions in different parts of the world. In the meantime, some cities have been experiencing rapid and significant growth. Urban change has today had widespread effects on urban climatic conditions. One of these effects is the change in the temperature of the cities (formation of the UHI) and the increase in night temperatures. The present research was carried out to investigate the effects of the expansion of Tehran on the climatic conditions of the Mehrabad synoptic station. The study of the climate conditions of the Mehrabad station shows that during the study period, the air temperature of the Mehrabad station has undergone a change. So that the minimum and maximum temperature is facing an increasing trend, which is, of course, more severe at the minimum temperature. The average minimum temperature of the Mehrabad station during the 1996-75 period was about 10.9 ° C, reaching about 13.7 ° C in the period 2005-2015, and on the other hand, the average maximum temperature during the 1975-1996 period was about 5.5 ° C 22 ° C and in the period 2015-2005 reached about 23.6 ° C. In addition to temperature averages, temperature indices have also changed significantly at Mehrabad station so that cold and warm extreme events have decreasing and increasing trend, respectively.

Climate change caused some changes in the global climate in recent decades. One of the climate change impact is the disturbance of the hydro- climatic cycle and discipline in the world. The effects of climate change on the hydrological cycle are including changes in groundwater levels, lakes, as well as changes in the distribution of the amount and timing of rainfall and river flows.
Intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events and the risk of floods and droughts are increasing due to the climate change in the large parts of the world.
The impact of climate change on spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation and extreme events, affected people's life. Hence, study on trend and changes of precipitation extreme can reveal the occurrence every related hazard. Studies around the world have shown that global warming and climate change impact and the precipitation condition has changed in different regions. The main objective of this study is evaluating of daily precipitation indices trend over Iran.
In order to analysis of daily precipitation indices trend, 47 synoptic stations were used to investigate the precipitation extreme events over Iran during the 1982- 2012 (11323 consecutive days). The RClimDex software was applied to extract daily precipitation trend.
The list of precipitation indices include the following:• RX1day: Monthly maximum 1-day precipitation
• Rx5day: Monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation
• R10: Annual count of days when PRCP>=10mm
• R20: Annual count of days when PRCP>=20mm
• CDD: Maximum number of consecutive days with RR=1mm
• R95p: Annual total PRCP when RR>95th percentile
• R99p: Annual total PRCP when RR>99th percentile
• PRCPTOT: Annual total PRCP in wet days (RR>=1mm)
On Average, the amount of precipitation in climatic stations such as Bam, Zabul, Yazd, Tabas, Jask and Zahedan was less than 80 mm whereas Bandar Anzali, Rasht, Ramsar and Noshahr stations have experienced above 1000 mm of precipitation during the period 1982- 2012. Among of all studied stations, Anzali and Zabol stations have had about 1763 and 52 mm of precipitation during the studied statistical period, respectively. Investigation of total index of annual precipitation in Iran represents that the slope of precipitation in most of the stations is negative during the 1982- 2012. Averagely, the annual precipitation of Iran has decreased about 2.5 mm during the 1982- 2012.
Generally, results illustrated that the trend of CWD index in some regions was negative, in some regions was positive and in some regions there wasn’t any trend during the 1982- 2012. Among all studied stations, the CWD index had positive trend for 11 stations including Kashan, Semnan, Ramsar, Mehr Abad, Dooshan Tapeh, Zahedan, Khorram Abad, eastern Isfahan, Anzali and Abadeh. There was no trend in Arak, Bandar Lengeh and Shahrood stations and negative trend was observed in other stations. According to the results, the CDD index was increasing in most studied stations during the period 1982- 2012. Approximately, in %72.5 of the stations the index was raising and in %27.5 of stations showed decreasing trend. The trends showed that the number of days without precipitation is increasing. The greatest changes have experienced on the coast of the Caspian Sea and the Persian Gulf. Results showed, indices R 10 mm, R 20mm, R 25 mm, at most of the stations has decreased and R 10 mm index had more negative trend.
The trends indicated that the number of days without precipitation is increasing. Among the studied stations, Ramsar station has experienced the highest downward slope of R95p index with 6.4 mm annually. From this point of view, Saghez, Rasht, Sanandaj and Bandar Abas stations had the highest downward slope in very wet days. moreover, Gorgan station with 2.7 mm have experienced the most increasing trend among all stations annually and Shiraz, Esfahan and Chabahar with higher than one mm are in the next rank, respectively.
The results illustrated that all Precipitation Extreme Indices has been changed over Iran during the 1982-2012. There were negative trends in more stations. In most of studied stations, annual rainfall has decreased and the number of dry days (CDD) has increased, only a few stations in the central regions and the foothills of the Zagros have had positive trend.

Today, global warming is causing a change in the climatic conditions in different areas. These changes in temperature and precipitation indices can be found. The aim of this study is investigate frost day’s trend in Iran. The data used is daily minimum air temperature of 44 meteorological stations in the period 01/01/1982 to 30/12/2012. To trends extract, used the ETCCDI Indices and RClimDex software by the R programming language. The results show that during the period of study at more stations in the country, the frost day’s trend has a decreasing slope. This trend is close to zero to -1/4 (Slope estimate = - 1.4) days per year is different. Despite, the decrease in frost days at most stations, some stations also have a positive slope in the number of frost days. The greatest increase in Semnan station with 5 days per year has occurred.

The aim of this paper is climatic classification of Khuzestan province. For this purpose, we first used eleven-variable relationships of humidity, temperature and precipitation in synoptic stations of the study area. Then we formed a matrix with the dimention of 13*11 applying Kriging method for convert matrix dimention (616*11) and also for principal component analysis and cluster analysis inputs. In this research the principal component analysis was used for understanding the component details and the cluster analysis was applied for the climatic classification. The results show that there are five climatic region and four components in Khuzestan province. Climatic variety conditions and regional settingsd indicate that this province is near the sea and dry regions of Iraq and Saudi Arabian countries that extensively expand toward the heights of Zagros Mountains.

Climate is numbered amongst the most significant factors which have been considered throughout the history and almost most of agricultural activities deal with a few meteorological factors diurnally (Mohammadi and Moghtaderi, 2005; 163. Therefore, one of the most important and effective factors in human activities especially in the agrarian section, is climate so that nearly all cultivations should be done in connection with climatic conditions, otherwise it might simply fall through the cultivation process. Limitation and boundaries of the agricultural crop productions is highly depends on the climatic conditions (Mohammadi, 2007; 89). This research aims to examine the climatic conditions for Saffron cultivation in Marvdasht city.

Nowadays, the effect of climatic conditions on tourism activities is obvious. The aim of this study is to evaluate impact of climatic conditions on tourism. ..

Climate is the significant factor in development of tourism section activities. Therefore, the main objective of this study is investigation of climatic condition impacts during the year on tourism and recreational activities in Marvdasht. Hence, the total monthly precipitation and average of temperature, hours of sunshine, wind speed, relative humidity, minimum relative humidity and maximum temperature data of Dorodzan Dam synoptic station for 18 years statistical period (1987-2006) were used as well as the number of tourists who visited Achaemenian historical complex during 10 years statistical period (1997-2007). For analyzing the effect of these parameters on tourism activities, Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) was used. The results revealed that winter months (Jan, Feb, March and December) are not suitable for tourism activities because of the precipitation and low temperatures but spring and fall months (April, May, October and September) have the best conditions for tourism activities in Marvdasht. Also, June, July and August are not desirable for tourists because of high temperatures. According to the results, there is a significant positive correlation between the number of the tourists and average air temperature, hours of sunshine and wind blow parameters, while there is a negative correlation between number of tourists and humidity and precipitation.

Nowadays, tourism is a dynamic industry which influences all aspects of a society and global sustem.This paper analyze the relationship between climate, as one of the natural factors. and tourism and the influences of climate change and global warning on tourism trends in different parts of the world. The study method is descriptive and considers the results of previously done researches. The results show that there is a strong relationship between climate and tourism activities.'In fact, an appropriate climate in terms of temperature, aesthetics and physical conditions can potentially attract tourists. Tourism-related activities such as transportation and fuel consumption play an important role in the global climate change. Climate change may transform the climatic conditions suitable for tourism. For example, it is forecast that climate change may increase.