مجید صباغ کرمانی

In this paper، we design a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to investigate effects of fiscal dominance on inflation rate in Iran and solve it by calibration method. In order to getting reliable results، the second-order moments of main variables were compared based on actual and simulated data; and functions of impulse response to model innovations were considered. The results show that the degree of fiscal dominance in Iranian economy is about 92%، i. e.، the independence degree of monetary and fiscal policies is nearly 8%. Therefore، decreasing fiscal dominance may lead to decreasing inflation rate in Iran. In addition، any action for increasing independence of central bank and decreasing dependence of government on seigniorage revenue will play important role in reducing inflation rate in Iran.

Stagflation is an economic situation in which both inflation and business activities stagnant will happen at the same time with the increase of unemployment rate in the country. In this study, the causes of stagflation will be identified in the country by Error Correction Method (ECM) and the data of the years 1973-2011. Then, by using Threshold Autoregressive Error Correction Method (TAR-ECM), the researchers try to clear that if the growth of the elements identified will equally affect the stagflation or after a threshold level, the effect can be different. According to the results of linear relationship, indices of payment balances, budget deficit, oil revenues and liquidity are statistically significant and considered as the cause of stagflation in Iran. Also, the results of all nonlinear models estimated in this paper represent when the growth of stagflation causes passed the threshold point, their effect on stagflation will be different.

Applying z-score indices and a panel data approach, the financial stability of banking sector and its determinants during 1380-1388 are investigated in this paper. The data used in this study have been taken from banking sector balance sheets and income data. The results show that an increase in the debt/assets and cost/income ratios would cause the banking financial stability to decrease. However, an increase in the Income Diversity Index would have a positive and significant effect on the financial stability of the banking sector. Moreover, among the variables affecting the financial stability of the banking sector, the ratio of debt/assets has had more negative effect on the banking financial stability. Among the macroeconomic variables in the model, inflation rate has had a negative effect on the financial stability of the banking sector. If the inflation rate increases, the financial stability of the banking sector decreases, but other variables like GDP growth rate and exchange rate growth have no significant effect on the financial stability of the banking sector.

In modern economics, equity objectives are the main reasons for government intervention. Dispensation policies are not only related to economic outcomes (such as income, etc.), but encompass other issues such as education, health and social services. This has led to entrusting the provision of social health and educational needs to the government. The purpose of this study was to investigate how much government expenditures would be effective in achieving better health outcomes. In this study, panel data of a group of Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) in 1991–2005 was used to explore the effectiveness of government expenditures in health and education sectors. Classical Econometrics Model (CEM) and Covariance Structure Model (CSM) were applied to analyze the relationship between public social expenditures and social indicators. The results of this study showed that the government expenditures in these sectors had significant impact on the health and education indicators in these countries. Furthermore, the superiority of the CSM model to CEM was approved in this study. Since the governments are committed to achieving Millennium Development Goals, it is of prime importance to consider the effectiveness and efficiency of public expenditure. Furthermore, using particular estimation techniques, like CSM, can lead to accurate estimation of social expenditure effects and an improvement of the elasticity magnitudes.

In this paper, a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model have been designed to investigate Fiscal Dominance' effect on social welfare. The designed model has solved by calibration method. Results shows that the degree of fiscal dominance in Iran economy is about 92 percent and decreasing of Fiscal Dominance would lead to decreasing of output loss and increasing of social welfare. However, these results do not mean that the zero degree of fiscal dominance would maximize the social welfare in Iran. Results indicate that increasing of independence of monetary policy to upper than .5 (50 percents) does not any significant positive effect on social welfare.

The global financial crisis, started in 2008, has affected many economies and it has also caused a significant drop in global growth during past years. As time went on, various sectors has been affected due to decrease in demand and prices. Using CGE model, this paper investigates the effects of global agricultural price decrease on agricultural trade balance of Iran. The results showed that decrease in prices of agricultural goods has had a negative effect on trade balance of all agricultural products except three products, namely, wheat, industrial crops and wood products. In brief, the decline of global agricultural prices deteriorated the agricultural sector trade balance mainly due drop in export of horticultural products

Market failure in providing individual and social stock of health, or capital, cause exigency of government interference in these sectors. Therefore, providing a part of society’s needs in the field of health is one of the basic acts of government. It has been further argued that unless government intervenes, the provision of equity cannot be achieved. The main purpose of the present study is to conduct a survey on effectiveness of governmental financial support of health sector in some Islamic Organization Countries (OIC). Thus, we applied classical econometrics methods (including cross section and panel data) using data period of 1991-2005. Results show that government health expenditure has a positive and significant effect on various social indicators. In addition, it was shown that per capita income is one of the important determinants of health indicators (such as infant mortality and under-five mortality rate). Adult’s literacy rate is one of the significant variables affecting health status In other words the health and education sectors correlate to each other. Studying the role of government in providing finance to the health sector and observation of its outcomes shows that we cannot condemn the priority of public sector in developing countries’ health sector. Moreover achieving millennium development goals needs governmental financial support, specially in the field of health care.

House price changes in Iran is a category for thinking about in recent years and also different studies has been done on determinants of housing supply and demand and its price. However, this study deals with causality relation between house price and its determinant factors by seasonal data in Tehran between “1994-2006".In this study, Vector Error Correction, is used to estimate the model. Moreover, Wald test is utilized for the study of causality relation in long-run and short-run. The results show that all of the model variables can be significantly determinant of house price.In short-run, land price, the wholesale of building materials, and gold price (as substitution market) have a bilateral causality relation with house price. Forthermore, there exists a unilateral causality among the average of household income and private sector investment in house building, as complete buildings, with housing price. Nevertheless, in the short-run Granger causality between house price and interest rate was not confirmed. On the other hand, the high significance of the coeffeceint of partial error correction in all of the estimated equations as well as integrated tests with model dependent variables reveals existence of a long-run relation.

Governments of developing countries typically spend between 15 and 30 percent of GDP. Hence, small changes in the efficiency of public spending could have a major impact on GDP and on the attainment of the development's objectives. This paper presents a framework where data envelopment analysis (DEA) is used to assess the efficiency of expenditure in education and health sectors. More specifically, this paper assesses efficiency and seeks to establish a link between difference in efficiency level across countries and policy conditions. The data are used for a sample of member states of organization of the Islamic conference (OIC) over the 2000-20005 period. The findings show that under 5 year old mortality rates, malnourishment prevalence and immunization rates are the main determinants of deficiency in health sector of sample countries. Moreover, enrolment ratio, more specifically in secondary school, is the major factor that affects public spending efficiency in the education sector. In addition, results show that because of international aid programs, on average, countries in Africa are more efficient than those in Asia and Middle East.

Do government expenditures often yield the expected improvement in social outcomes? This paper asserts that the good governance indicators can explain differences in attainment to a good health and education outcomes in OIC countries. This paper analyses the linkage between three concepts; "Good Governance", "Public Spending" and "Social Outcomes" For this propose, we measure the governance level by "corruption" and "quality of bureaucracy". Public spending becomes more effective in health and education sectors in countries with good governance; also, public spending has less impact on health and education outcomes in poorly governed countries. By using OIC countries data in period 1991-2005, we found that public health and education spending has a stronger negative effect on child mortality and stronger positive effect in raising primary education attainment in countries, which have good governance.

Underground economy affects important indexes such as formal GDP, unemployment, consumption, production and etc. Therefore it is necessary to identify elements and factors which affect underground economy to restrict it. Surveys and Studies indicate the size of Iran’s underground economy is high and taxes, quantity and quality of regulations and performance of formal economy are the important factors that affect it. At the first stage, the results of estimated model indicate that the impact of tax burden on underground economy isn’t statistically significant. But there is a statistically significant positive (negative) relationship between regulation burden (GDP growth rate) and the underground economy. In second stage, aggregate tax burden variable in primary model breakdown into its components: direct tax burden and indirect tax burden. Results of The model indicate impact of direct tax burden on underground economy isn’t statistically significant, but indirect tax burden is statistically significant and its relationship with underground economy is positive. In third stage, direct tax burden breakdown into its components: corporation tax, personal income tax, wealth tax. Also indirect tax burden breakdown into its components: commercial tax, excise tax. The results of the model indicate that the impact of direct tax burden components on underground economy isnt statistically significant. But among the indirect tax model the burden components sales tax has a statistically significant relationship with underground economy, while import tax has not.

Because of widespread effects of services trade on macroeconomic indicators such as economic growth, investment, employment and creating new job opportunities, this sector has increased its dominance in the national and international economies. Therefore, in the recent decades, such importance has made most of developed and developing countries to do some structural adjustments in the service sector.This study aims to specify an econometric model and estimate the effects of services trade openness, defined as the share of services trade to total service value added, on economic growth in selected Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) countries. Using the data over the period 1991-2005, the results approve the existence of strong and positive relation between services trade openness and economic growth in these countries.

Two powerful and sometimes controversial current social and economic trends are globalization and the widespread adoption of information and communication technologies (ICTs). The process of globalization and e-Commerce create new challenges and opportunities for firms Many argue that these two trends are closely associated, each driving the other forward, and both being driven by other common forces, such as trade liberalization, deregulation, ‍competitive factors, and so on….Competitive factors can affect the process of EC adoption and globalization. This paper develops and tests a model for examining the relationship between firm globalization, e-Commerce adoption and competitive factors

Throughout the world, People refer directly or indirectly to hospitals. As a result of the growth in urbanization, the living standards have improved, but some diseases have emerged too. The hospitals need to meet the increasing demands of people and their frequent and random visits. This issue has been considered in Iran in resent years and the present article tries to address it. It reveals the determinant factors on hospital production function using cross section data of 287 selected hospitals in Iran for 2001 in the context of an econometric pattern. The results show that the number of physicians, nurses, and hospital beds are the main factors affecting the production function of hospitals services and the final productivity of nurses are the most important factor.

Cooperation among human beings have existed in different forms from past centuries till now. The modern cooperatices have been formed in response to disorders due to the occurrence of industrial revolution. Inefficiency of market and government for various reasons, justifies the formation of the third sector of economy (including cooperatives). This paper aims to answer the following questions:What are the reasons for the formation of cooperatives? What is the thire sector of economy? What are the roles of cooperatives in macroe conomy?