فهرست مطالب محمدتقی معبودی

Futurology as an interdisciplinary field has experienced rapid and growing expansion in spatial, temporal, philosophical and methodological paradigms. Although the basis of modern futurism is in the history of Western futurism, thinking about the future is not new; This category is a universal phenomenon that can be traced back to prehistoric times. In all known human societies, people have ideas about time and the future, these perceptions, although seemingly different, have different emphasis on the past and the future and are at different levels in terms of detail.However, the existence of such ideas in all human societies is an undeniable fact. Therefore, this article deals with the issue with the approach of historical-genealogical analysis and while explaining the concept of futurology and its philosophical paradigms, intellectual traditions, historical periodization of futures studies and methodology have been examined.

Problem Statement:

 Paradigmatic changes in urban transportation are based on changing the approaches and basics of planning, decision making and policy making from the vehicle-driven model to the human-centered model. Hence, it can be said that the human is at the core of the discourse of a new paradigm.

Analysis of the paradigm shift of Tabriz metropolitan transportation policies to achieve sustainable urban transportation is the main objective of the research.

The present research is based on the pragmatism paradigm. Quantitative data were collected by a researcher-made questionnaire from experts (360 individuals). For analyzing quantitative data, one-sample t-test, Friedman and linear regression were used. Qualitative research data were collected through exploratory interviews and semi-structured interviews with 30 managers and experts and the analysis was done using Grand Theory method.

Paradigm Model of qualitative findings showed that the economic structure, the level of socioeconomic development, the process urbanization of the country as a dominant platform have led to the slow shift in the paradigm of transportation policies in Tabriz metropolis. Thus, the technical infrastructure overcomes other policies. Also, the quantitative findings, while confirming the qualitative results, showed that among the various sustainable transportation policies, ‘planning for public transportation practices’, ‘traffic management measures’, and ‘speed constraints’ policies have a significant impact on the Tabriz metropolitan transportation, so that the standardized coefficients (β) of these policies were respectively 0.726, 0.583 and 0.508, which were significant at the error level of less than 0.01.

Innovation: 

The use of the Analytical Framework (ASI) Model and the mixed method methodology are innovations of this study.

Governmental budgeting in any country is influenced by four main social groups that’s mean voters (or suppliers costs), political team (shapers costs) Bureaucrats (price donors) and are pressure groups (direction makers). As aspect of public view. These groups not behave differently from each other and in own function continuously will be given to private interests. This study aimed to analyze the relationship between political participation (Percent of voters in presidential election) and Resource allocation in Iran. This study as aspect of nature and method is descriptive – analytical. There for were used fund Data related to between 1997, 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2012 and province voters' percentage of presidential election in four periods. For analyzing data were applied quantitate methods such as correlation analysis, regression analysis, ANOVA.the results show that there is significant correlation between fund allocation and political participation of province (the percent of voters in presidential election) as the allocated funds between 1997, 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2012 years with the percent of voters in presidential election in order of 0.741, 0.766, 0.606, 0.466 and 0.482 Correlation is significant at the level 0.01. Also the results of ANOVA and regression analysis confirmed this issue.

  Expansion and growth of urban - rural settlements have Different effects on each other in physical, social and economic aspects, as social and economic progress in urban areas, could have positive or negative effect on jobs, markets, rural livelihoods and environment, particularly surrounding villages, also opposite of subject is true. Accordingly, Urban Sprawl and Integration of rural within cities brought different outcomes in physical, social, economic and cultural aspects for rural settlements. Therefore purpose of this study is Socio-economic effects of Urban Sprawl process in integrated rural and Effective factors on rural integration. The process of urbanization historically has been associated with other important economic and social transformations, which have brought greater geographic mobility, lower fertility, longer life expectancy and population ageing. As countries develop, they restructure away from agriculture Change to the manufacturing and services sector. Along with the structural transformation of countries, usually emerging urbanization, this means that spatial evolution occurs with people movement from rural to urban areas. In the late eighteenth and nineteenth centuries before the Industrial Revolution, People mainly lived in rural areas or small villages. Even though cities have existed thousands of years ago and were partly planned action, but until Industrial Revolution only a small part of the world population lived in urban areas. However Technological change in late 1700 encouraged more people to living in urban areas, so farm work was replaced with factory work. Expansion and growth of urban- rural settlements have mutual influence on each other in physical, social and economic aspects, as social and economic progress in urban areas, could have positive or negative effect on jobs, markets, rural livelihoods and environment, particularly surrounding villages, also opposite of subject is true. Accordingly, Urban Sprawl and Integration of rural within cities brought different outcomes in physical, social, economic and cultural aspects for rural settlements. Therefore purpose of this study is Socio-economic effects of Urban Sprawl process in integrated rural and Effective factors on rural integration. This research is an applied study conducted with an analytical – description strategy and for information and data Collection Used of desk and Field method (Semi - structured interviews (Collaborative meetings), Observation and questionnaire). Research domain is integrated Qejelu village in Miyandoab city. Statistical Society of present study consisted of 30 university professors and employees of various government agencies as well as 187 heads of households of the village Qejelu based on the revised Cochran formula as the sample for research to answer the research questions, designed questionnaire on Effective factors in integration of Qejelu village and integration Effects and questionnaire was distributed within sample and collected. Also for data analysis used quantitative method (Exploratory factor analysis and stepwise regression analysis) and qualitative method (participatory and effect diagram). Results of factor analysis shows, most important factor from perspective of Qejelu village people that Cause integration of Qejelu within Miyandoab city, is social and economic Factors with 3/48 special value and Factors such as population growth and need more space, thirst private ownership of land, get more credibility, creating a diverse and sustainable revenues on the edge of town has most important role in sprawl of Miyandoab city. Economic - political factors with 1/79 Score has been Least impact in this issue. Therefore, with expansion of Miyandoab city and Qejelu village annexation in it and Municipal supervision in the affairs of the village, Gradually more funds dedicated to the people of this village and Diversified and sustainable earnings generated by this integration. Also There''s growth and development capacity of Qejelu village One of the factors that led to integration Qejelu village in physical structure of Miandoab City. study social and economic effects of Qejelu village integration in Miandoab city Using multiple regression analyzes stepwise Show that between 8 Index of employment, income, land prices, benefit from resource production, consumption and production patterns, lifestyle changes, changes in migration and retention incentives and social cohesion, beta Standardized coefficient relating to employment index is calculated 0/482 that Compared to other indices is highest value. So we can say that Qejelu Integration in Miandoab city in the first phase increased employment in the service and industrial jobs and the next step cause is lifestyle change. Study results showed that most important factor Qejelu integration in the Miyandoab city is social- economic factor. sprawl of Miyandoab city in recent decades, especially from 1991s and integration of Qejelu village in it, has brought Effects such as; municipal supervision in rural affairs, funds attract, creation diversified and sustainable revenue, enhance quality of construction and monitor them and Strengthening urban culture and urbanism in rural areas. study Economic and social effects of integration shows that with integration of Qejelu village Service jobs such as (Cafe, supermarket, bakery, Tailors, agricultural and non-agricultural machinery repair shop, Sales tools, business machines, passenger terminal of Miyandoab to Tabriz, Islamic Azad university, Phone Agency and etc) created in this village and and subsequently increased revenue, and life pattern has shifted from rural to urban life. These changes and employment and income increase, Has an important role in reducing rural migration and increase of population durability motivation and As a result, Cause is Increase Public participation in affairs Related to Urban and rural and cooperation with Municipality.
In general, the results showed, Social and economic factors, physical and investment were the main factors in the Miyandoab city sprawl to suburbs and the political factor in this area has been minimal role. Also in the process of urban sprawl, Qejelu village integrated in Physical Structure of Miyandoab city and most importanteffects of this integration isIncrease of employment in the industrial and service fields and as well as people lifestyle changes from Pastoralism to Urbanization

Modernization is a short term for a variety of views that used by non- Marxists for the Third World and through it occurs the Growth of technology, industrialization, mass consumption, urbanization and suburbanization of human life, mass communication, government centralization and formal education systems development. This study was conducted to evaluate and critique of modernization approach. The method of research was descriptive - analytical and for collect data is used documentary (library) method. The results show that due to the nature of modernization approach, criticism Pose, such; Linear perspective to the development process, ignoring the role of external factors in the backwardness of the country, destroying the economic and political independence, A tool for influence West capitalism, Destruction of cultural and historical character In contrast modernization approach, Abstract studies, destruction of meaning foundations ,Tradition as Obstacle to development, Ontological insecurity and Ignoring the role of class. Despite these criticisms should be noted that most of the human societies progress After World War II Happened Based on the theoretical foundations of this approach and still the developed world, Is the industry and urban world that this cases is emphasized Indicators of modernization theory.

study was to analyze the difference between socio-economic indicators and individual resilience of of informal settlements residents in Urmia.. Research in terms of purpose is applied, In terms of the nature is descriptive and analytical methods and to collect information and data, is used of documents and field (questionnaire) method. The study area in the Research is Haji Pirlo, Vakilabad and Islamabad 2 informal settlements of Urmia city, in the West Azarbaijan Province. Therefore, to complete the questionnaire on the basis of revised expenditure Cochran 380 households were selected for the survey and questionnaire. As well as to analyze the data, was used analysis of variance (ANOVA). The result of this research showed that among the economic indicators studied, the employment index with Self-reliance and feeling of uniqueness components with sig 0.000 and sig 0/002 Respectively, Income indicator with self-efficacy and self-confidence components with sig 0.002 and sig 0/000 Respectively, Housing property index with positive emotions component with sig 0/000, Car ownership index with Sense of Community component with sig 0/001, indicated Significant differences. Also from among the Social-Demographic Indicators studied, only the education index with Self-reliance and confidence component with sig 0/000 and 0/001 respectively, indicated significant differences.

Housing is one of the basic human needs and perhaps one of the first human needs that has physical form. However, this need is one of the first physical needs of humans that was achieved. But today its supply, especially in big cities, that face Lack of development space and population increase, has become a serious problem. Housing indicators as the basis of a comprehensive program and an indispensable tool for explaining the various aspects of economic, social, cultural, environmental and physical of housing, have a special place in the housing planning. Housing indicators not only as descriptive tools are to expression of different dimensions available housing status, but also an appropriate tool to assess the criteria in the process of housing development. The present study was carried out to identify, analyze and rank the country provinces for urban housing indicators . In this regard, first were collected the data of 18 indicators related to the housing sector from the results of the 1390 national population and housing census on the scale of urban areas. Then The use of two methods, principal components analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis, were to identify, analyze and rank the province that selected indicators. The results of the ranking is based on principal component analysis revealed, Yazd and Isfahan provinces have respectively with combined index 4.010 and 2.671, first and second rank. Also, based on cluster analysis, the provinces have been classified into four clusters. The provinces of Yazd, Isfahan, Kohgiluyeh-Boyer Ahmad, Chaharmahal Bakhtyary, Semnan, Alborz, Tehran, Markazi, Fars Are located in the first cluster and Sistan- Baluchestan province were in the fourth cluster.

Spatial disparities in income distribution, health services, educational and poverty indexes have created economical and political challenges for governments in many of the developing countries. Spatial disparities basically resulted from two aspects. The first aspect is physical situation of geographical region and the second is decisions of policy maker and economical planers, while technology progress has significantly decreased the first aspect. The role of second factor has increasingly remained as an important factor. Therefore policy maker's and planers decisions have significant role on the creation of regional disparities. Accordingly, this study was done to analyze and assess the level of regional disparities in the Sistan and Baluchestan province based on the 29 selected indexes. Therefore, In the first step, 29 selected indexes (socio- economic, health, educational and infrastructural) were derived from public census of population and housing in 1390 and the second step analyzed codition of county using the Vikor, PCA, Z- Score and Morris methods. The result showed that exception of Morris method in other three methods, Zahedan and Zabol county are developed and in four methods; Zaboli, Delgan and Sarbaz are location in lower rank.

Urbanization is a process which leads to the growth of cities and urban changes due to industrialization and economic development. In other words, urbanization is an inevitable and demographic force and movement which should not be neglected. Informal settlements, which took place in Europe after the Industrial Revolution at the time of the transition from the traditional society to the modern society soon became widely popular in the developing countries. But we can definitely say that this phenomenon was particular related to the developing countries and fell out of fashion in the developed countries. The increasing growth of urbanization rate due to the countries’ development in the developing countries led to the formation of informal settlements. Presently, these current settlements are their tangible reality; therefore, theorizing the reason for their growth and development as parts of the environment is of great importance.
Theoretical Framework: There are three main theories regarding the informal settlement in the developing countries: first, the theory of Chicago School in 1930 which considers informal settlements as a separation from residential regions due to the difference in the levels of income and the ethnic and racial groups competing to acquire more proper and valuable lands in urban areas. The second approach, Alonso’s neo-liberal theory, considers informal settlements a response to the housing needs of urban residents who cannot afford to buy a formal settlement because of discriminatory laws; finally the third theory, the postmodern theory of urban/ecological perspective considers that informal settlements formed as the result of separating professions among the urban spaces and that urban residents are housed according to their profession and social statuses.
We can point out four main theories regarding the formation of informal settlements in the developing countries, including land management, colonial heritage, economic inequality, and imbalance of supply and demand. The first school believes that city officials’ inefficiency and weakness in land management and insufficient urban plans leads to informal settlement. The second perspective links the development of informal settlements to historical and political factors, especially colonialism, pre-colonialism actions and civil and political instability. The third view refers to the new economic system which plays a significant role in the development of informal settlements. This theory interprets the city businesses, and class and income differences resulting in the residential separation and social deprivation. The fourth theory relates the advent of informal settlements to the imbalance in the supply and demand process of urban merchandises (land, services, and substructure). This theory attempts to stabilize the informal settlements and recover them.
Generally speaking, there are several different and contradictory theories for informal settlements. But as for the ecological theory apart from its being a simplistic perspective, a type of social Darwinism can be seen. As for the theory which considers the colonial and capitalist factor worthy of blame, it should be added that it has shunned the responsibility and has failed to consider the role of internal factors.
The goal of the present research is applied, which is of descriptive-analytical kind in terms of its nature and approach. In order to study the spatial growth trend of informal settlements in the city of Khoy, the present research used Land Sat TM5 of the years 1976, 1989, 2000 and 2011 while it used CA-Markov Model for the prediction of its growth.
The formation and trend of spatial growth of informal settlements in Khoy in the time span under study indicates that it follows a pattern similar to other cities in the country which is confirmed by the results of other studies. Along similar lines, Sarvar (2009) studied informal settlements in Tehran and concluded that the constant growth of informal settlements due to the population and migration growth the and slow nature of structural reforms are effective factors in the development of informal settlements in a metropolis such as Tehran at least until 2025.
Conclusion and Suggestions: The results of the study show that the core issue in the formation of informal settlements in the city of Khoy was formed in its northern district (Jamshid Abad) with the area of 31.84 hectares between the years 1975 and 1976. The process of growth in the areas of informal settlement suggests that it was increased in 1976 with the area of 31.84 hectares to 174.78 hectares in 1989 to 670.86 hectares in 2000 and to 913.05 in 2012. Also, the prediction of spatial growth of informal settlements in Khoy was used by means of combining Marcov Chain and cellular automata (CA), which shows that the area of these settlements will increase up to 1036.35 hectares in 2026.

Extended Abstract :The purpose of this study is to evaluate and prioritize the effectiveness of internal factors influencing medical tourists'' attraction to Iran. The initial data were collected to identify the internal factors encouraging medical tourists through using document analysis. As a result¡ 4 criteria and 15 sub-criteria were identified. It was followed by evaluating and prioritizing the criteria and sub-criteria using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and then was sent in a questionnaire survey to 30 academics and experts in tourism field. The results indicated that within four main criteria¡ medical resources with weigh 0/609 and within 15 sub criteria¡ medical equipment with weigh 0/347 were taken most scores.
Modern medical tourism produced by the citizens of developed countries. The high cost of health¡ long treatment process may lead to increased demand for such services in developing countries. There are various internal and external factors such as political¡ social¡ economic and cultural factors that play critical role in choosing a medical tourism destination by patients. The study of international experience shows that initially¡ the cost of medical services was the dominant factor in determining medical tourism destinations. But widespread and intense competition between medical tourism destination countries causes quality as a dominant factor became substitution to medical services costs.
Methods and Materials :This research is an applied study and used a descriptive survey methodology. The initial data were collected to identify the internal factor encouraging medical tourists using document analysis. As result¡ 4 criteria and 15 sub-criteria were identified. It was followed by evaluating and prioritizing the criteria and sub-criteria using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and then was sent in a questionnaire survey to 30 academics and experts in tourism field. The collected data were analyzed by Expert Choice software.
Discussion and Medical tourism is a new industry that many developing countries have a comparative advantage in this field. This industry formed in Asia after the Asian economic crisis in 1997 and some Countries such as Singapore¡ Thailand¡ Malaysia¡ India¡ Philippines¡ Taiwan and South Korea are pioneer in this industry. Iran have had great progresses in the medical field in recent years and predicted to become an area of medical tourism in the region following a long-term planning from the experiences of other countries in this field. The results of this study indicated that medical resources (0/609) and marketing promotion (0/191) are the most important factors among the evaluated factors. It was also indicated that the sub-criteria medical facilities and quality of medical services with the mean ranks of 0/347 and 0/421 are the first priorities and inefficient bureaucracy and transportation with 0/005 and 0/008 scores were are last priorities in encouraging medical tourists among the evaluated sub-criteria.
Medical tourism is a new form of tourism market which has increasingly grown in recent years as an economic activity based on trade services to explain the link between the medicine and tourism. One of the most important issues that should be concentrated by countries is medical tourism marketing to use the advantages of relative competition. Medical tourism thus is one of the most important areas that have been accounted by developing countries. This is encouraged many developing countries¡ especially in Asia¡ to look for marketing and medical tourists'' attraction in a competitiveness space. The results of this study indicated that the medical resource is one of the most important indicators in choosing medical tourism destination. Also¡ the medical services with appropriate subvention may make special comparative advantage in medical tourists'' attraction.
Comparative results of similar studies in other countries confirm the results of this study. For instance¡ Ricfort has investigated the factors influencing medical tourists in choosing Thailand hospitals as medical tourism destination from the perspective of medical tourists and identified 20 influential factors. It has been reported that¡ factors related to medical sources including the quality of medical services and certified doctors have greatest impact on the choosing of medical tourism destinations. The price of medical services has included as the second priority. Also¡ Yang studied the key success factors in medical tourism marketing from the perspective of travel agencies and medical institutions in Taiwan. The results showed that¡ branding factor is the first priority and quality of medical facilities and medical services are in the next points.
Taken together¡ while such studies are different in their purposes¡ the common result of all is an emphasis on medical resources. They also have included the low-cost services as a second important factor for tourist destination.

This research is an applied study conducted with an analytical – description strategy. Data from multitemporal of Land Sat Tm5 for 1989, 2000 & 2011 were used to assess and model the changes in urban land use in KHoy city.The result of changes in land use assessment indicated that most of changes are related to land uses due to urban construction. Under this condition, the land use has increased from 995.13 hectares to 2084.22 hectares and 2557.12 hectares in 1989 and 2000 respectively. The greatest growth with 27percents has experienced between 1989- 2000. The land uses of gardens, green spaces and agriculture section has respectively experienced with the decline of 13 and 8 percents in favor of construction uses in the period under study. As result, the land uses has reached from 717.03 hectares to 623, 25 hectares in 1989 and 165.06, 288.54 hectares in 2011.The result of forecasting changes by using Auto cells Markov chain also implied that the most recent changes will happen in urban built land use. It is predicted that, land use area of 2557.62 hectares (62.6 percent) in 2011 to 2872.620 hectares (70.47 percent) will be reached in 1400.

Earthquake is considered as one of the natural disasters that both occurrence and predictability, is of paramount importance than other risks. Therefore, it requires preparation and planning before of crisis to reduce losses and damages. Earthquake have different impacts on social groups and is directly related with people's socioeconomic status, So that the results are consistent with the socio-economic inequalities structure of communities. Therefore, the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) is method that based on the socio-economic characteristics of groups, assess their vulnerability level against earthquakes. This paper aim, spatial analysis of social vulnerability in No 2 Municipality of Tabriz that use of Descriptive analytical method and SVI model. First, defined indicators and variables based on SVI model and then data associated with variations in blocks statistical scale extracted from 2011 census data and data analyzed using factor analysis method. In the end, Results Combined with base map of district and has been identified spatial distribution of Social vulnerability. The final map of social vulnerability shows that 18/9 percent of district area with 98 348 population (31 percent), In other words, nearly one-fifth of the area with about one- third of the population are exposed to high vulnerability.