محمدحسن زارع

The type of industries that grow the economy, based on their intensity of production factors, plays a crucial role in shaping income distribution within a society. Failure to consider the intensity of production factors in industries may result in a scenario where production grows while income inequality worsens. The primary objective of this study is to examine how variations in the value-added share of industries, based on production factor utilization intensity, impact income inequality in the economy of Iran. The research employs the generalized method of moments (GMM) and utilizes data from all 31 provinces of the country spanning from 2010 to 2019. Findings indicate that a proportional rise in the value-added share of labor-intensive and natural resource-intensive industries contributes to a decline in income inequality at the national level. Given Iran's significant abundance of labor and natural resources, these industries exhibit comparative advantages in line with the Heckscher-Ohlin theory. Consequently, prioritizing the nation's comparative advantages serves to enhance income distribution, aligning with the Stolper-Samuelson theorem. Thus, transitioning towards a market system mechanism over government intervention in price determination for production factors or industry selection not only preserves economic efficiency but also enhances income distribution compared to the present scenario.  The government must provide direct financial assistance to individuals with low incomes and adhere to appropriate strategies for redistributing income via the taxation framework. By doing so, based on the principles outlined in the second welfare theorem, it becomes feasible to attain a new optimal Pareto equilibrium, resulting in a more just allocation of income, all the while preserving overall efficiency.

The role of financial development as a prerequisite for economic growth and development on environmental pollution has remained ambiguous. Also, the direct impact of financial development on climate change has merely been investigated in a limited number of foreign studies. Therefore, the current study delves into examining the joint influence of financial progress and pollution on climate change. Data encompassing economic, environmental, and climate change aspects from 1990 to 2021 across 99 developed and developing nations have been collected, and a regression model has been employed utilizing the unbalanced panel technique. The results validate the robust positive impact of the evolution of the banking sector and the relatively weaker positive influence of the growth of the stock market on the mean temperature, serving as an index for climate change. Furthermore, the affirmative correlation between pollution metrics and the mean temperature is affirmed. The differentiation in this association across diverse climates, according to the De Martonne climate classification, highlights its intricate nature. There is a more immediate impact in arid and semi-arid climates compared to the delayed effect observed in humid and semi-humid climates. Consequently, the progression in financial sectors is likely to increase the mean temperature both directly and indirectly (via pollution), particularly in these specified climates. Effective policies need to be implemented to guide the financial sector towards allocating capital to socially responsible industries, environmentally sustainable projects, and eco-friendly production. This should also include avoiding financial support for polluting ventures.

Foreign direct investment is typically pursued with the objective of gaining control over the host nation's market or enhancing its export activities. The primary aim of this study is to investigate whether the influx of foreign direct investment into developing countries that are members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) has led to an expansion in their exports. A total of 11 acceded developing nations were chosen, with the selection criteria based on data availability. The analysis focused on the timeframe spanning from 2005 to 2020. To address the research inquiry, two distinct models were developed and evaluated. These models were both subjected to generalized least squares estimation and analyzed within the framework of regression models incorporating fixed effects for time. Using the first model, it was investigated whether trade liberalization through joining the World Trade Organization has caused the growth of foreign investment in the mentioned countries or not. The results of this estimate confirmed the positive impact of trade liberalization on foreign investment. In other words, the experience of trade liberalization of the mentioned countries does not indicate the relationship of import substitution and foreign investment, but the relationship of these two was complementary. Then, in the second model, the effect of foreign investment on the exports of these countries was investigated. The results showed that foreign investment had a positive and significant effect on the exports of developing countries that joined the World Trade Organization. Hence, joining of developing nations to this international organization caused a boost to FDI attraction focused on exports. Furthermore, empirical analyses indicate that entry into the WTO has contributed to the expansion of the gross domestic product (GDP) of these nations.

The stock market is one of the most important financial markets for investors. For the first time, this research examines the correlation network of volatility in the index stocks of 30 companies as the most powerful companies in terms of liquidity and value in the capital market, in two periods of the bubble and the collapse of the Iranian stock market. In this research, Pearson's correlation test and complex network theory have been used. The investigated period includes the stock market bubble from 5/1/1399 to 5/19/1399 and the period of the collapse of the Iranian stock market from 5/20/1399 to 11/5/1400. During the bubble period of the Iranian stocks market, Shapna stock have the highest volatility correlation in this network, and Hekhshti and Khodro stocks have the lowest volatility correlations. In the period of stock market crash, the network density and clustering coefficient have increased, which shows that the volatility spreads more widely in the network. If the modularity value is low, it is possible for the system to crash in case of a shock to the system. According to the modularity in the correlation network of turbulence, it has decreased in the period of the fall of the Iranian stock market, which indicates the contagion of the shock and the collapse of the system in the network of the fall of the Iranian stock market. Eigenvector Centrality has increased during the period of stock market crash, which means an increase in the ability to transmit volatility in network nodes. Garh Shepna has the power to spread risk during the bubble period of the stock market, and Fem share has the power to spread risk in the stock market network during the collapse of the Iranian stock market. During the bubble period of the stock market, Shepna's stock has a more volatile correlation with other stocks. Fakhuz and Hakhshti stocks have the least correlation of turbulence with other network shares. Femli's share has the highest correlation in the network and Akhabar's stock has the lowest correlation in the turbulence correlation network. Shabandar stock has the highest turbulence correlation in the network. The lowest turbulence correlation in the turbulence correlation network related to stocks is news.

The problem of poverty and inequality has been the concern of politicians and thinkers for a long time, and extensive efforts have been made to solve it. One of the most important programs designed and implemented with the aim of reducing poverty and inequality is social security programs, especially pension insurance. In Iran, most of the pensioners are covered by two pension funds: Social Security Organizations and Civil Servants Pension Fund.  The basic question is to what extent these two funds can be effective in controlling poverty and inequality?

In this study, the relationship between pension expenditures of two large pension funds in Iran, with poverty and inequality during the period 2014 to 2018 has been investigated. In this study, the type of research data is collected from panel,  and the generalized least squares method was used for estimation.

The results show that the Social Security Organization's pension expenses have a negative relationship with poverty and inequality indicators, but the Civil Servants Pension Fund’s expenses and poverty and inequality indicators are in the same direction.

The reason these two funds have different impacts on poverty and inequality can be related to the financial situation of the funds during recent years. Contrary to the Social Security Organization, expenses exceed revenues in the Civil Servants Pension Fund, and thus, and it suffers from a deficit, a large portion of which is paid by the government. This contradicts the nature of pension funds. The government allocates a portion of its welfare budget to pension funds with a financial deficit. Therefore, the actual budget of other supporting programs for the needy is reduced.

The stock market is one of the important markets for investment, and it is important for investors to know the behavior of stocks during the bubble period and the market crash. This research investigates the volatility spillover in the index stocks of 30 companies as stocks with the highest market value and liquidity in the stock market, using the Diebold-Yilmaz spillover test and complex network theory for the time period of the stock market bubble in 2019 and the crash period. It covers the years 2019 and 2019. According to the results during the market bubble period, Vepasar´stock is the most receiver of turbulence in the market and Kegel´ stock is the most sender of turbulence in the stock market. During the period of market collapse, the stock is the most sender of volatility and the stock of exporters is the most receiver of volatility in the network. During the market bubble period, Vepasar and Jam have the least volatility. During th crach of the stock market, the combination of Mobin and Jam stocks, as well as Jam and Parsan´stock, Shapdis and Jam´stock, Shekhark and Jam stocks, Shatran and Jam stocks in the portfolio have the least integration.

The present study examine the impact of export diversity on income distribution. This study investigate the selected developing countries during 2013 to 2017. Export diversification index is used for measuring export diversity and gini coefficient is used for measuring income distribution. The model is estimated in panel data framework using feasible generalized least squares method. The results of the present study show that with increasing export diversity, gini coefficient decreases and income distribution improves. Also, per capita income, human capital, foreign direct investment and trade openness have a negative and significant effect on gini coefficient and the effect of industrialization on g gini coefficient is insignificant. According to the results, developing countries can improve income distribution by moving towards export diversification.

The present study aims to investigate the impact of quality of financial information on stock mispricing. For this purpose, a Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model was used to calculate stock mispricing. Then, a panel data regression model was applied to test the relationship between financial information quality and stock mispricing. The statistical population of the research consists of all companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange, among which 114 companies that were active during 2008-2019 were selected as sample. Based on the results, the quality of financial information has a significant negative effect on stock mispricing. In addition, the share of floating stocks and the ratio of book value to company market value have negative and significant effects on stock mispricing, while institutional ownership have a positive and significant effect on that. The results also indicate that the financial leverage, liquidity, price-to-earnings ratio and company size have no significant effect on stock mispricing. Thus, providing high quality information by companies can influence the decisions and behavior of investors in the market and reduce the possibility of mispricing. Furthermore, by reducing management benefits and increasing information transparency, the possibility of occurring price bubble in stock market can be reduced.

According to relevant international economics theories, imports either substitute for or complement FDI. The present study aims to examine this issue in 27 selected developing countries that joined the WTO during 1990-2019. At the first step, Granger and Dumitrescu-Hurlin tests were used to determine the direction of causality between two variables. The results demonstrated a strong one-way causal relationship from imports to FDI. Then, the effect of imports on FDI was estimated by FGLS method. The results showed a significant positive effect of imports on FDI. Hence, in the selected countries, imports complemented FDI rather than replacing it. This finding confirms that a competitive economy in which low barriers are imposed on imports is more attractive for foreign investors than a protected economy. The results also confirmed the hypothesis of the positive effect of accession to the WTO on FDI absorption. The obligation of the member states of the WTO to observe the principle rules of non-discrimination and transparency (through binding their tariffs and trade regulations), as well as to respect all aspects of intellectual property rights and above all the efficiency and effectiveness of the Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) of the WTO are among the main reasons behind this fact. Therefore, Iran by lowering its tariffs through joining the WTO, not only does not cause destruction of its industries in long run but it is expected to accelerate the economic growth based on its comparative advantages.

Unemployment duration is the length of time that an unemployed person looks for a job. It is an indicator of labor market performance. In other words, a longer period of unemployment duration reflects the poor performance of labor market and implies that structural barriers prevent the employment of unemployed. In recent years, the unemployment rate in Yazd has exceeded the average unemployment rate in the country, and this has made unemployment an important issue in Yazd. In this regard, unemployment duration is of importance. Accordingly, identifying the factors affecting the unemployment duration is as important as identifying the factors affecting the unemployment rate. Unemployment insurance is a factor affecting the unemployment duration. On this basis, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of unemployment insurance on unemployment duration in Yazd.

In the present study, the generalized Cox proportional hazard model has been used as a statistical method to correlate survival with a number of explanatory variables. This model belongs to the group of non-parametric models and is a function of time and explanatory variables. One of the features of this model is the proportional hazard assumption, according to which the risk ratio is always a fixed number and independent of time. If the explanatory variables in the exponential expression are not time-independent, the generalized Cox proportional hazard model is applicable. The exponential part of the generalized Cox proportional hazard model includes time-independent and time-dependent variables. In the present study, the maximum likelihood method has been used to estimate the parameters, in which the parameters are obtained by maximizing the probability function. In the model of this study, the unemployment duration is a function of unemployment insurance and a vector of explanatory variables including age, gender, marital status, employment history and number of children. Unemployment duration in terms of day and unemployment insurance, which is the wage given during the unemployment or a coefficient of wage that is received based on the minimum wage, is entered into the model. The statistical population of this study consisted of the unemployed job seekers who were unemployed from 2013 to 2017. They received unemployment insurance and were re-employed. Raw data were collected from the Department of Labor, Cooperation and Social Welfare Organization and the Social Security Organization of Yazd.

The distribution of statistical population according to the unemployment duration shows that the unemployment duration of 66.2% was under 12 months and of 29.8% was between 12 and 24 months, which accounts for 96% of the statistical population. Also, the unemployment wage (unemployment insurance) of 74.1% was equal to the minimum wage and of 25.9% was more than the minimum wage. In addition, unemployment wage (unemployment insurance) has a positive and significant correlation with unemployment period. The results of estimating the generalized Cox model show that unemployment insurance has significantly increased the unemployment duration, and the increased unemployment insurance has resulted in increased unemployment duration. Also, being single and having no children leads to an increase in the unemployment duration. In contrast, employment history and age lead to a decrease in the unemployment duration. In other words, people who received unemployment insurance, namely those who were single and had no children, left the unemployment duration later, and people with a longer employment history and age left the unemployment duration earlier. In addition, gender did not have a significant effect on the unemployment duration. According to the coefficients, unemployment duration is more affected by individual characteristics than by unemployment insurance. Also, among the variables, the largest coefficient is related to being married.

In this study, for the first time, unemployment insurance is included in the model not as a dummy variable (receiving or not receiving unemployment insurance) but as unemployment wage. This is used as a coefficient, or the ratio of unemployment insurance to minimum wage. The results of the model estimation showed that unemployment insurance significantly increases the unemployment duration. Most studies confirm this result. However, a few studies such as Carling et al. (1996) in Sweden, Tatsiramos (2006) for European countries, Fitzenberger and Wilke (2007) in Germany and Galean et al. (2019) in Spain contradict the results of the present study. This study showed that the benefits under unemployment insurance payment are as important as the payment period to reduce the length of the unemployment duration. Also, policymakers should reduce the adverse impact of unemployment insurance on the unemployment duration by paying attention to both benefits and duration. Therefore, if unemployment insurance benefits gradually decrease over time with increasing unemployment duration, the incentive to re-employ will increase. In addition, paying attention to the education and training of the unemployed by emphasizing on technical and vocational training can provide the basis for reducing the unemployment duration.

Media instruments are very important in the present age, considering the demand for tourists around the world to travel. thus, the destination website quality and their capabilities are very important in the introduction of tourist attractions and attracting tourists and affecting the attitude of users .therefore, in this study, the effect of the destination websites quality on users ' attitude and the willingness to participate in online co-creation experiences has been addressed  .The population of this study consisted of all visitors from the comprehensive tourism website of Yazd province, a statistical sample using the cochran formula was calculated in the number of 306. Data analysis is carried out by model structural equation modeling .the results show that the destination websites quality has a significant impact on users ' willingness to participate in online co-creation experiences. also, the destination websites quality has a significant impact on users ' attitude toward the website , and the attitude toward the website has a significant impact on users ' tendency to participate in online co-creation experiences

Capital flight is a growing problem in the global economy that has negative effects on the economic growth and development of developing and has also deepened the development gap between countries. Different factors affect this phenomenon but risk and uncertainty are among the most important institutional components of each country that affect the return on investment and can lead to capital flight. The present study aims to investigate on the effects of economic, political and financial risks on capital flight using panel data during the period 2000-2019 and in 45 selected developing countries.  The results of using the panel data error correction method through fully corrected least squares estimators (FMOLS) show the significant and positive effect of all three types of risk factors on capital flight. In addition, official and foreign currency exchange rate variables have positive effects, and economic growth rate, real interest rate and corruption control index have negative effects on capital flight. This study shows that under strict sanctions and the consequent high political and economic risk, the phenomenon of capital flight can not be countered in Iran. To prevent capital flight, Iran needs to reduce its international tensions, especially with large and influential countries in the global economy.

Theoretically and empirically, FDI may have positive (complementary) or negative (substitution) effect on the host country’s domestic investment. This study aims to examine the existence of crowding out (in) effect of FDI for MENA countries with high- and low- level income. Using the GMM, several regressions were estimated over the periods of 1981-2017 and 2001-2017. The immediate positive effect of FDI on domestic investment was confirmed in all regressions. In addition, the long-run positive effect of FDI on domestic investment in both groups of high- and low- level income countries is strongly confirmed over the 2001-2017, but it was not significant for the 1981–2017 period. To enhance the positive effect, it is suggested that the "forms" and "conditions" of using foreign investment are cosidered. Foreign capital absorption in the form of joint ventures and buy back and also the use of conditions such as export performance and technology transfer will be beneficial.

This paper aims to analyze the long-run effects of Iran's tariffs reduction on the value added in agricultural, industrial and service sectors. The study is conducted in the framework of accession to the WTO and by applying the Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE) model. To this end, the model is first calibrated using the data base of the 2011 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). Next, the model is simulated as a rival scenario on the basis of the market access commitments of 22 developing countries acceded to the WTO. Under the Business as Usual (BaU) scenario, the economy, without joining the WTO, is supposed to be developed at the rate of the population growth (2 percent) annually. The results indicate a substantial reduction of the value added in industrial and services sectors following accession to the WTO, but there is a moderate growth in the value added of the agricultural sector after a decade of slow reduction. By the third decade after accession to the WTO, the value added in the industrial and service sectors under the rival scenario will be respectively 80 and 55 percent less than the value added under the BaU scenario. The average value-added growth of agricultural, industrial and service sectors under the rival scenario are found to be 0/5, -3/4 and -0/7 respectively.

The aim of this study is to compare the New Hybrid Method with the usual Markowitz method in creating an optimal portfolio. To this end, at the first stage, the future stock prices were predicted using a deep DNN learning method and stock technical variables for the period 1397/4/2 to 1397/6/2. Then, based on future stock prices, stock return and risk were calculated and, by using Gravitational Algorithm, portfolio profits were maximized. This results in creating low risk to high risk portfolios on the Pareto efficient frontier. After that, the future return of portfolios was calculated for the next two months, and the process was repeated for 30 weeks in the form of weekly Rolling Window. These results were compared with the results of usual Markovitz method for 30 periods. The results indicated that both Markowitz and New Hybrid methods showed only better performance in predicting stock prices of risk averse portfolios than average market index.

In this paper, a three-phase micromechanical model of short fiber composites considering interphase is developed to analyze the stress field in aramid fiber reinforced rubber composites. Due to the importance of the interphase in this type of composites, the modified shear-lag model and the imaginary fiber technique have been applied to investigate the load transfer mechanism and stress distribution. The results obtained from the analytical model indicate that the maximum tensile stress is occurred at the center of the fiber, whereas the shear stress of the interface at the end of the fiber reaches the maximum value. In the present model, the mechanical properties of the interphase, such as the elastic modulus, are obtained by averaging the radius-dependent mechanical properties. Also, the effects of the modulus ratio, aspect ratio, interphase thickness and Young modulus on the axial and shear stresses of interface have been investigated. The importance of the present model compared to the previous models is to use of imaginary fiber technique for short fiber composites with a three-phase micromechanics model. Note that the mechanical properties of these composites can be determined by obtaining the distribution of stresses in the matrix. There is also good agreement between the FEM results of full continuum micromechanical three-phase model and the results of the present analytical model.

Simulation of the flow around propeller is a complex fluid flow problem, especially when the propeller is close to free surface. In this study, the effect of different depths on the performance and efficiency of a B-Wageningen series close to surface of water have been numerically investigated. For this purpose the ANSYS-FLUENT commercial software has been used to solve the viscous, incompressible and two phase flow field. The rotation of the propeller has been implemented using the rotating reference frame model for steady flow and the sliding mesh for unsteady flow. For turbulent flow modeling and free surface simulation, the k-ω SST model and the volume of fluid method have been used, respectively. For validation of numerical results due to lack of access to experimental results of propeller close to surface, numerical solution in open water condition has been performed and performance coefficients have been calculated. The results of the numerical solution show that the propeller coefficient decreases at different depths with increasing forward ratios.

This paper aims to analyze the long run effects of Iran's tariff reduction in the framework of accession to the WTO on agricultural and industrial sectors trade, using Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (RDCGE) model and Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of 2011,. According to the results, joining the WTO will lead to a 70 percent jump in the imports of agricultural products. Then, the process of mild reduction of imports initiates and continues for a decade and stabilizes in the second and third decade following accession. Agricultural exports also grow slowly after a reduction for a decade. Hence, the negative effects of joining the WTO in agricultural sector is mostly appeared in the first decade after accession. In the industrial sector, by contrast, imports and exports jump 21 and 3 percent, respectively, after which the reduction process starts and continues more sharply and lengthy than agricultural sector. Average estimated long-run growth rates of industrial imports and exports are -3/7 and -3/5 percent, respectively. Although total imports increases in short-run due to tariff reduction, it decreases, in long-run, due to fall in the demand for domestic production, GDP, and household real income. Furthermore, decreases too. low competitiveness of local products will lead to a fall in GDP and total exports

In this paper, Using Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE), the long run welfare effects of Iran's accession to the WTO has been analyzed. Doing so, at the first stage, the model is calibrated using the data base of 2011 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). Next, the model is simulated for the Business as Usual (BaU) and rival scenarios. The recent scenario is developed on the basis of the market access commitments of 22 developing countries acceded to the WTO after the establishment of the organization in 1995. The results indicate that membership to the WTO; will increase the level of the household welfare. However, during the first decade after accession, the rate of increase in household welfare decreases. Increasing trend of household welfare initiates in the third decade after accession to the WTO.