محمدحسن فطرس

As a multidimensional concept, social welfare includes not only economic issues such as per capita income, but also other issues such as health, housing, education, employment, environment include for assessing individual well-being in a society (Noll, 2002). Ambia & Sujarwoto (2018) stated that government policies in the proper allocation of resources are a determining factor in increasing social welfare (Ambia & Sujarwoto, 2018).Thus, the evolution of government policies shows the importance of prioritizing government expenditure in increasing welfare. Along with the process of allocating government budgets in various sectors of the economy, governments have always keep the ratio of expenditures to GDP constant. So that they increase their expenditures slowly during the boom periods and refrain from rapidly declining expenditures during the recession (Ghasemi & Mohajeri, 2015). In other words, governments have to reduce economic fluctuations and make society stability to achieve goals such as increasing social welfare. Therefore, it is important to consider the role of business cycles in the correct implementation of government policies in increasing social welfare. 

It should be noted that all variables were considered logarithmically in the estimation model. In order to estimate the models during the period 1973-2019, research data have been collected from the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Ministry of Economic Sciences and Finance, the Statistics Center of Iran and the World Bank. 

The results show that the positive shocks of government expenditures on social and cultural affairs, the chapters of education, physical education, culture and art, social welfare and health have caused increasing social welfare significantly. The negative shocks of government expenditures on chapters of culture and art and education during periods of recession and social welfare chapter during periods of boom have caused increasing social welfare significantly. Also, in the negative shocks of government expenditures on social and cultural affairs during business cycles and the health chapter during boom periods have reduced social welfare, significantly. Considering the positive shock of government expenditures, social and cultural affairs, the chapters of education, physical education, culture and art, social welfare and health have a greater impact on social welfare during the boom period. while the results of negative shock of government expenditures, social and cultural affairs and the education chapters have a greater impact in the recession period and the chapters of physical education, culture and art, social welfare and health have a greater impact on social welfare in boom periods. Government Expenditure on social and cultural affairs and related sub-chapters during business cycles has had asymmetric effects on social welfare. Therefore, with a positive shock of government expenditures, government social and cultural s expenditures should be spent on the social welfare, culture and arts, physical education, health and education chapters during periods of recession and boom. Also, with negative shocks, government expenditures during periods of recession should be spent on the culture and arts and education chapters, and during boom periods on social welfare, culture, and arts chapters.

The currency crisis is a critical issue faced by many countries, imposing significant pressure on their currency markets. This research investigates the impact of sanctions on currency market pressure in Iran and Russia using data spanning from 2000 to 2023 sourced from central banks. Employing the ARDL method, the study examines how sanctions influence exchange market pressure. For Russia, the short-term analysis reveals that sanctions initially negatively impact the foreign exchange market pressure. However, in the long term, the error correction results suggest that this negative effect diminishes in significance. Furthermore, economic growth and government spending both exert positive and significant effects on exchange market pressure in the short term. In Iran, the ARDL findings indicate a significant negative impact of sanctions on exchange market pressure. Economic growth, both in the short and long term, and government spending also exhibit negative and significant effects on the exchange market pressure. Interestingly, similar to Russia, the long-term impact of sanctions on Iran's economy appears not to be significant. Comparing the models for Iran and Russia, both countries experience a short-term negative and significant effect of sanctions on exchange market pressure. However, the long-term effects differ, with the significance of sanctions diminishing over time in both economies.

Government borrowing is considered a means of financing the government, which first appeared in 1688 in Britain and then in America, Belgium, Denmark, etc. Receiving loans and credit through domestic banks and institutions as well as through international monetary institutions is one of the things that will create debt for governments in the future. Today, government debt is a global phenomenon that most countries in the world face. The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of economic growth and government budget deficit on the accumulation of government debt in Iran's economy using the Lasso and ARDL approach for the period 1979-2023. The results of the research through the Lasso approach showed that economic growth, foreign investment, government budget deficit, trade openness, real interest rate and inflation variables were chosen as the determinants of accumulation of the government's debt. The results of the model estimation through the ARDL approach showed that in the long term, the trade openness variable had a positive and significant effect on the accumulation of government debt. Also, in the long term, economic growth and the real interest rate variables had a negative and significant effect on the dependent variable. The results of the model estimation of the dynamics of the short-term indicated the significance of the variables of trade openness, economic growth, real interest rate and budget deficit . Similar to the long-term period, trade openness had a positive and large effect of the accumulation of the government debt in the short-term period. Although the positive effect of the budget deficit was not significant, the negative effect of the interest rate on the reduction of government debt was significant in both the long-term and short-term periods.

Fiscal decentralization can improve the efficiency of public service delivery through preference matching and allocative efficiency. Local governments possess better access to local preferences and, consequently, have an informational advantage over the central government in deciding which provision of goods and services would best satisfy citizens’ needs The implementation of financial decentralization, with the aim of improving management processes and transferring resource management and spending, from the central government to local governments is one of the factors improving the efficiency of public services, including health services. so, the aim of the present study is to investigate the effect of financial decentralization indicators on the efficiency of providing health services in Iran's provinces by spatial econometric method in 2006-2016.

The methodology is based on a two-step approach, estimating efficiency coefficients and analyzing the impact of fiscal decentralization on the latter. In a first step, the efficiency of public service delivery is estimated using stochastic frontier techniques. In a second step, this paper estimates the effects of fiscal decentralization on the estimated efficiencies.

The results show that there is a nonlinear relationship between decentralization and efficiency, and therefore the optimal value for decentralization can be achieved. Provinces below the optimal value can improve the efficiency of their health services by increasing decentralization. In fact, the initial levels of financial decentralization have a positive effect on efficiency, but after passing the maximum point, the increase in financial decentralization leads to a decrease in the efficiency of public health services.

The goal of financial decentralization is to increase the efficiency of health services. But its effective implementation requires the identification of provincial capacities; Therefore, it is recommended that the optimal limit be determined and identified before attempting to decentralize financially.Thus, by determining an optimal level of decentralization for each province, financial decentralization based on certain goals and based on the capabilities and capacities of the provinces will be operational and similar and equal treatment in this field will be avoided.Financial decentralization emphasizes the proper transfer of taxes and expenditures to different levels of government to improve the production of public goods and services. nonlinear relationship between financial decentralization and the efficiency of health care services indicates the optimal level of financial decentralization. Financial decentralization, if more than the optimal amount, will worsen the efficiency of service delivery due to the cost of decentralization through factors such as increasing corruption, increasing regional inequalities and lack of necessary infrastructure, lack of favorable political and economic environment. Findings under expenditure decentralization and under revenue decentralization point to the need for a favorable institutional and political environment. Effective autonomy of local governments is required to allow preference matching and the allocative efficiency hypothesis to operate. Strong accountability of local authorities vis-à-vis the local population is necessary to allow the productive efficiency hypthesis to operate. Corruption needs to be tackled to prevent misuse of public resources. And capacity needs to be strengthened at the local level. Absent those conditions, fiscal decentralization can worsen public service delivery.

In this study, the effect of public despite and agricultural bank credits on the value added of the agricultural sector in the western provinces of the Iran (Hamedan, Kermanshah, Kurdistan, Lorestan and Ilam) during the period 2001 to 2019 has been studied.In order to investigate the effect of Keshavarzi Bank credits on agricultural value added and to investigate the existence of integration and long-term relationship, the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Panel ARDL) model was used.The results of the study showed that the real amount of agricultural bank credits has a positive and significant effect on the value added of the agricultural sector. The results of estimating the co-integration relationship show that there is a positive and significant relationship between the real values of value added of the agricultural sector and the credits granted to the sector in the long run. Also, the variables of public deposits in the Agricultural Bank and labor force had a positive and significant effect on value added,

According to some common views in macroeconomics, fiscal policy can be effective in stabilizing the economy and achieving macroeconomic goals. The past few decades have seen the widespread use of monetary policy tools for this purpose. Since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008, there has been a renewed interest in using fiscal policy as a stabilizing tool. The macroeconomic implications of government expenditures and revenues and their effects on the overall economic structure have been studied by various empirical methods in several countries as well as in Iran. In this paper, far from previous studies, the issue has been implemented using Bayesian structural vector autoregression (B-SVAR). Because this method takes the previous information into account, the B-SVAR method is able to make more accurate estimates than other VAR models. Empirical findings show that government spending and income (income tax) have a limited effect on macroeconomic variables, including GDP, inflation, private sector consumption, income tax and total investment, and in the housing sector. Also, the impact of the private sector on production fluctuations in this model was not confirmed.

Due to the threat of Covid-19 to the public health of the world, the World Health Organization, in order to show international interest in coordinating international responses to this disease, raised the public health emergency and after that, the global issue of Covid-19 was declared. In a highly interconnected world with strong ties between countries, the effects of disease outbreaks go beyond mortality and morbidity. Because with the reduction of economic activities, the performance of the global supply chain will also be disrupted. Considering the importance of this issue and the destructive consequences of the spread of this virus on the global economy, it is necessary to take a step to reduce this problem. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate and analyze the long-term effects of the human development index and its components (life expectancy, literacy, per capita income, urbanization and employment) on deaths caused by Corona in selected developing countries (30 developing countries). with a relatively high human development index) in the period of 2019-2022.

For this purpose, FMOLS and DOLS methods have been used.

The results indicate that the human development index and its components (life expectancy, literacy, per capita income, urbanization and employment) have a negative and significant effect on the death rate of Corona in selected developing countries in the long term.

Since the human development index has a negative and significant effect on corona deaths in selected developing countries in the long term, Therefore, the improvement of health, social and economic indicators can reduce the attenuation of Corona in societies. Therefore, it is necessary for governments to make interventions in the sectors of society, especially economy, education and security, in order to strengthen reforms in the health sector.

Population aging is one of the important phenomena in demographic changes whose effects on social and economic variables are considerable. Accordingly, using the Shapley Value, the current study aimed at investigating the contribution of the effective factors on Iran’s population aging in 1970-2020. The obtained results show economic production, life expectancy, mortality rate, and fertility rate have the greatest contribution. Calculation of the contribution of the effective factors on population aging based on age structure transition indicate that in the first stage of transition (1970-1995) encouraging policies for having children and increasing trend of migration have made net rate of migration and fertility have the most contribution in population aging. In the second stage of transition (1996-2010) child mortality decreases by increasing in health level. As a result, infant  mortality rate has the most contribution in population aging. But implementing population control policy reduces the contribution of fertility rate in population aging. In the third stage of transition (2011-2020), net migration rate and child mortality rate have the most contribution in population aging due to migration and improvement of treatment methods. In this stage, the contribution of fertility rate and child mortality rate increases than the previous stage. Hence, adopting appropriate policies such as increasing fertility rate, creating socio-economic infrastructures, taking care of the elderly, and increasing the elderly’s health level to prevent adverse effects of population aging is necessary.

In recent years, global growth and development indicators have underscored a widening gap between developed and developing countries, including Islamic nations, prompting a shift towards endogenous growth strategies and the utilization of domestic capacities and sustainable resources. The tourism industry has emerged as a dynamic driver of growth and development, particularly in developed countries, over the past two decades. Islamic countries, rich in cultural, historical, and natural attractions, have the potential to optimize this capacity by establishing necessary platforms. This comparative research investigates the factors influencing tourism, with a specific emphasis on the tension index, across two groups: member countries of the Organization of the Islamic Conference and developed countries from 2005 to 2019. The findings reveal a positive and significant impact of tension variables, previous period tourist numbers, economic openness, and transportation infrastructure on foreign tourism. Notably, the estimated coefficient of the tension index is larger in member countries of the Organization of the Islamic Conference. Furthermore, the study identifies a positive and significant relationship between public spending on education and tourism in developed countries. Contradictory trends in the effect of the consumer price index on foreign tourism between the two groups highlight differences in purchasing power dynamics.

Energy supply and ensuring energy security for countries is a vital goal to achieve growth and sustainable development. Energy security provides a country's ability to meet current and future energy demand, resilience, and responsiveness to minimize systematic shocks to supply disruptions. This study uses five dimensions; Availability, Accessibility, Affordability, Acceptability, and Develop-ability, as well as by using entropy-weight and TOPSIS method, the composite index of Iran's energy security for the period 1980-2019 has been measured. The results show that Iran's energy security has decreased in the period under review. The highest level of energy security was 0.716 in 1982 and the lowest level was 0.272 in 2018. Also, the level of energy security was higher than 0.5 in the periods 1980 to 1987 and 1991 to 1993, and lower than 0.5 in the periods 1988 to 1990 and 1994 to 2019.

The unemployment rate and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are among the most important economic indicators that understanding their current and future trends can help policymakers and decision-makers adopt appropriate solutions to prevent crises and improve the country’s economic situation. Accurate prediction of these two indicators can be useful in future planning and improving the country’s economy and people’s livelihoods. In recent years, artificial intelligence techniques and tools, given their many capabilities, can play a very important role in predicting important economic indicators. Therefore, given the high importance of the two indicators of unemployment rate and GDP on the economy of our country Iran, this article intends to first predict these two indicators separately and then predict the rate of GDP growth based on the unemployment rate using artificial intelligence techniques. For this purpose, in this research, seasonal data related to GDP and its components and the unemployment rate for the years 1976-2022 have been used. Also, machine learning models based on regression have been used for prediction. The results show that the predictions of the mentioned models have an appropriate accuracy in terms of evaluation criteria such as root mean square error, mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, which indicates.

Among the growth and development of businesses, managing financial flows and increasing its effectiveness is an important achievement that causes value stability, efficiency of systems and procedures throughout the chains of Business. Therefore, paying attention to uncontrollable and controllable variables that lead to value creation is inevitable. The purpose of this study is to study the impact of social and biological factors (production and recycling of polymer parts) of environment on the value creation of the company along the supply chain. Also the key role of financial ratios has also been considered in this regard.The present research is of quantitative and applied types and is based on mathematical modeling. It is the result of a combination of genetic algorithms and Simulated Annealing. The financial analysis parameters of the model include current ratios, debt to equity, Instantaneous ratio, net profit margin, cash ratio and rate of return.The analysis of the results shows that considering financial goals and indicators leads to improved profitability and by removing financial indicators from the model, profitability is reduced. Therefore,this is means that the environmental and social performance of the supply chain is improved.Companies can pay special attention to social issues and environmental factors along with their profitability Increase their economic value. Profitability can also be improved by exposing social responsibilities and the mission of environmental protection.

Energy is used as an input in the production, distribution and consumption of all goods and services. Therefore, it has a wide importance in the supply chain both from the perspective of the final product for consumers and from the perspective of production input for producers (Adom et al, 2019).This importance has caused the excessive use of energy to achieve higher economic growth and development, and has resulted in the destruction of the environment and the loss of natural resources. Indeed, although energy is necessary for economic growth and development, it can be said that it is necessary to worry about its lack and pay attention to environmental issues. Indeed, the limitation and depletion of energy resources has made the management of energy consumption one of the most important issues in the global economy (Harati et al, 2017). Therefore, studying the factors affecting efficiency in energy consumption and reducing energy intensity is one of the essential prerequisites for efficient management of energy consumption and reduction of environmental pollutants. Among various factors, the impact of financial development on energy intensity is one of the important issues that has been raised and shown its importance in the last few years. Therefore, this can have optimal policies in energy consumption and environmental efficiency.Therefore, the present research investigate the impact of financial development on energy intensity in Iran during the period of 1350-1397 under regime conditions.

To investigate the impact of financial development on energy intensity in Iran under regime conditions, vector auto regression model based on error correction (MS-VECM) has been used. The statistical data of financial development variables were collected from the WDI(2020) and energy consumption intensity from the energy balance sheet, as well as the statistics of economic growth variables, urbanization, industrialization and commercial openness from the WDI (2020).

According to the estimation model, the impact of financial development on energy intensity has been analyzed in three different regimes. According to the results, financial development in zero regimes has a negative and significant effect on energy intensity. In this regime, improving financial development has reduced energy intensity. In regime one, the impact of financial development on energy intensity is positive and significant, and the improvement of financial development environment has increased energy intensity. In regime two, financial development has a negative effect on energy intensity, but its effect coefficient is different compared to regime zero. Therefore, the results showed that energy intensity is affected by different regimes of financial development.

According to the results of the study, it can be said that financial development has an important and significant effect on energy consumption and intensity. When financial development is around its stable state and has little fluctuation, the impact of financial development on energy intensity is negative. It is important to pay attention to this point in Iran, where energy consumption and intensity are not in a good condition compared to other countries. Therefore, the results show that economic policy makers, in addition to paying attention to financial development, should also focus on the volatility and changeability of this variable and try to implement policies that do not cause large fluctuations in the financial markets. A momentary increase or decrease in credits, a sudden change in debts or a sudden change in bank assets can cause financial development to be in a single regime and have a positive effect on energy intensity. Therefore, the policy of paying attention to financial market variables and financial development indicators can improve energy intensity and increase energy efficiency.

Given the dependence of the country's economy on banks as the most important source of financing for companies, it is important to study the factors affecting the performance of the banking system; Therefore, in this study, the effect of exchange rate shocks, crude oil prices, total stock index and government budget on the performance (profitability) of the country's banking system in the form of 12 scenarios based on the profitability response of the banking network to 2%, 5% and 10 Shock% was addressed in the mentioned variables. For this purpose, research data were collected from the SAM matrix of the Majles Research Center in 2011 and the data-output table of the Central Bank in 2016. Also, the dynamic recursive dynamic calculus model (RDCGE) and Math Lab software were used to analyze the data. The results showed that the informal exchange rate and crude oil prices have an inverse effect and the total government stock index and budget have a direct effect on the profitability of the banking network; So that if a positive shock of 2%, 5% and 10% is applied to the informal exchange rate, the profitability of the banking network will decrease to a maximum of 1.73, 2.01 and 2.57%, respectively. Also, if a positive shock of 2%, 5% and 10% is applied to the price of crude oil, the profitability of the banking network will decrease to a maximum of 1.41, 1.63 and 2.03%, respectively. In addition, if a positive shock of 2%, 5% and 10% enters the total stock index, the profitability of the banking network will increase to a maximum of 0.47, 0.97 and 1.52%, respectively. Finally, if a positive shock of 2%, 5% and 10% enters the government budget, the profitability of the banking network will increase to a maximum of 0.38, 0.44 and 0.61%, respectively.

The role and importance of the banking system as the primary source of financing for businesses is necessary to investigate the factors affecting the profitability of this sector. Therefore, this research uses a computable general equilibrium model (RDCGE), the effect of exchange rate shock, crude oil price, stock price index, and government budget on Iran's banking system profitability. For this purpose, the social accounting matrix (SAM) of 2011 and the Input-Output table of 2016 were used to analyze the twelve design scenarios and the profitability of the banking system in response to shocks 2, 5, and 10 percent in the exchange rate, crude oil price, stock price index, and government budget are evaluated. The findings reveal that the exchange rate and crude oil prices negatively affect banking system profitability, while the total stock price index and government budget have positive effects. The funding comparison shows that in different scenarios, the shocks of the exchange rate, oil price, stock market, and government budget, respectively have the most effect on bank profitability. thus , appropriate use of the national development fund and government support for the stock market are effective for reducing exchange rate shock and crude oil prices and controlling the consequences of these shocks .

In recent years, financial development and its effects on the environment have received increasing attention. Indeed, financial development directly affects economic growth and energy consumption, so that affects the release of environmental pollutants. On the other hand, developed financial markets and an efficient banking system improve productivity and reduce environmental pollutants. Therefore, the present paper investigates the impact of financial development on carbon dioxide emissions in Iran under regime conditions during the period 1971-2018.

In the present study, in order to investigate the effect of financial development on carbon dioxide emissions in Iran, the Markov-switching vector error correction method was used under regimes conditions.

The results showed that financial development under two regime conditions affects carbon dioxide emissions. This means that in the zero regime has a positive and significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions. While in regime one, financial development has a negative and significant impact on carbon dioxide emissions. Thus; Carbon dioxide emissions in Iran are affected by financial development regimes.

According to the results of financial development in different regimes have different effects on carbon dioxide emissions, so it is appropriate in situations where financial development reduces carbon dioxide emissions, strengthen financial development to achieve both economic growth and development and Environmental protection also happens.

Based on the theoretical literature, there are different and contradictory approaches about the effect of shadow economy on per capita income. So, according to the importance of this issue for proper policy-making, this study examines the effect of the shadow economy on per capita income in the period 2005 to 2017 using the PARDL method in two groups of developing and developed countries in the short and long term. According to the results in the short run, the shadow economy has a significant and negative impact on per capita income in both set of countries. In the long term, the effects of this variable on per capita income in developed countries is insignificant, but in the developing countries have been significant, and its effect is greater than short term. Thus, developed countries have the ability to control the negative effects of the shadow economy on per capita income in the long run, while for developing countries, the negative effects have increased in the long run.

A high national savings rate leads to more investment in a nation's capital stock, which can increase productivity and economic growth over the long run. Therefore, identifying factors affecting national savings has particular importance. Income inequality is one of the influential factors impacting national savings. According to that, the current research has investigated the effect of income inequality on the national savings of Iran for the period of 1989-2020 by using the mixed data sampling approach. The findings of the research shows that income inequality has a hump-shaped effect on national savings. So, at low levels of inequality, the quantity of savings increases due to the transfer of income from the poor to the rich that have a high marginal propensity to save. But, after reach to a certain level of inequality, a more increase in inequality along with the country's economic situation (inflation, widespread sanctions, and the firm's economic recession) causes a decrease in employment and wages, which is associated with an increase in the number of poor in the society. The impact of the reduction in the poor's savings overcomes the influence of an increase in the rich's savings as the number of poor increases. Therefore, more increases in income inequality lead to a decrease in national savings. Also, variables of economic growth, real interest rate, and trade have a positive and significant effect on national savings. But variables of dependency burden, the effect of wealth, financial development, and economic sanctions have a negative and significant impact on national savings.

Factors such as expectations, lack of financial flexibility, the existence of uncertainties in the economic environment and other economic and non-economic indicators have an impact on the creation of business cycles. The large volume of government activities in Iran's economy indicates that the government has a fundamental influence on the stability and instability of business cycles in Iran. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the relationship between financial shocks and commercial periods of the Iranian economy during the period 1981-2021. First, by using Hadrick-Prescott filter method, business cycles of Iran's GDP are extracted, and by using VAR model, the causality relationship between financial shocks and business cycles is studied. The research results show that Iran's economy has experienced five periods of recession and five periods of prosperity during the studied period. These courses are symmetrical in terms of length and depth. The results of the VAR model show that there is a two-way causality relationship between the government expenditure shock and the tax shock with the business cycles of GDP. Therefore, the economic prosperity can reduce the financial shocks of the government and subsequently improve the budget forecast and reduce the budget deficit.

Factors such as expectations, lack of financial flexibility, uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment and other economic and non-economic indicators are influential in creating business cycles, none of which alone creates business cycles. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between economic, financial, political and international risks with the economic business cycles of Iran during the period 2001-2009. To achieve this goal, the long-run trend will be separated from the cyclical GDP trend using the Hadrick-Prescott filter, and the data will be analyzed using the Structural Vector Distribution (SVAR) model. According to the results, the average of one business cycle in the Iranian economy is equal to 10 seasons, which are equal to 5.45 and 5 seasons for the recession and boom period, respectively. Economic risk of -0.354 percentage has immediate effects on the business cycles of the Iranian economy, which for financial risk, international risk and political risk, the figures show -0.315, -0.0031 and 0.0048 percentage, respectively. According to the Granger causality test, the two variables of economic risk and financial risk are the cause of business cycles in the Iranian economy, while political and international risks are not the cause of business cycles. Economic risks in the first period with an impact of about 6% have the most explanatory effect in creating business cycles of GDP, after which financial risk has the greatest impact on business cycles, on the other hand, political risks among the studied risks have the least impact on cycles.

Based on the theoretical literature, there are different and sometimes conflicting approaches about the effects of the shadow economy on per capita income. Considering the importance of this issue for economic policy, this study examines the effects of the shadow economy on per capita income for the period of 2005- 2017 using a panel generalized two stage estimator (PG2SLS) in two groups of developing and developed countries. Based on the results obtained in both groups, the size of the shadow economy has a negative effect on the per capita income. Also, the effects of the shadow economy on per capita income in developed countries are much higher than in developing countries, which is somewhat countrary to the theoretical framework. Stimating the model with the assumption of endogeneity of the shadow economy, for developing countries these effects have become negative and significant, but for developed countries these effects do not have the necessary significance.

One of the goals of the government is to achieve to economic balances for eliminate fluctuations and improve the social welfare of citizens.The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of government expenditures in economic affairs and related chapters on the Amartya Sen social welfare index during business cycles in Iran’s economy. In this regard, the nonlinear autoregressive model with distributed lag (NARDL) has been used during the time period of 1973-2019. The results show that the positive shocks of government expenditures in economic affairs and chapters of agricultural, water resources, industry and mining, trade and cooperation, energy, housing and development, environment, and the negative shocks of government expenditures in economic affairs, the chapters of water resources, information technology, trade and cooperation, transportation and energy during business cycles have caused increasing social welfare significantly. Also, in the positive shock of government expenditures in information technology chapter during periods of boom and transportation chapter during periods of boom have caused increasing and decreasing social welfare respectively, significantly. Also, in the negative shock of government expenditures in the housing, development and industry and mining chapters increase social welfare during periods of recession and boom, respectively. In the negative shock of government expenditures in the chapter of environmental during boom periods has reduced social welfare, significantly.

Extended abstract1- INTRODUCTIONOne of the concerns of economists in recent decades has been the issue of shocks and their effects on household behavior. Given the high impact of economic variables on household behavior, which is often measured by the utility; Undoubtedly, these economic shocks will cause changes in this sector.2-THEORETICAL FRAMEWORKThe idea of ​​utility in economic theories of the 17th and 18th centuries was proposed in Europe, especially in England, by economists such as Adam Smith, John Stuart Mill, and Jeremy Bentham, who believed that people move in order to gain pleasure and avoid pain. But later other economists developed these utility functions. Nowadays, extensive research has been done in the field of utility extraction and depending on the type of study, different utility functions are used that consumption and income are the main basis of these functions. Despite the high importance of this discussion, so far, no studies have been conducted on the extraction of utility functions for the provinces and also how economic shocks affect these provincial utility functions in Iran and the limited studies that have been done in this area are mostly national.3- METHODOLOGYThis paper extracts the household utility of each province in the first phase and then examines the effects of shocks from macroeconomic variables on it during the period 2001-2019. To calculate the coefficients required to derive the utility function, the Panel ARDL model in EViews software was used. Also, Bayesian Panel VAR model in MATLAB software was used to analyze the effects of shocks on the utility function.4- DISCUSSIONThe results of the estimate showed that the inflation shock first increases the utility. But over time, its effect on the utility of all provinces decreases. Perhaps one of the reasons that rising inflation has increased household utility in first time is that the utility function is obtained with the help of the consumption function. Therefore, with increasing inflation, the household increases its consumption expenditures, which leads to an increase in utility. But over time, due to the persistence of inflation, the household gradually reduces its consumption, which in turn leads to a reduce in household utility. However, the results of the inflation rate shock on the utility of all provinces except Isfahan, Khorasan Razavi and Mazandaran are significant. Also, the results showed that a positive shock in government spending leads to increased household utility. This increase in utility for most provinces persists after 20 periods, and only for some provinces the effects of this shock disappear. Probably the main reason for the increase in utility as a result of the increase in government spending is that an expansionary fiscal policy stimulates demand and increases household consumption, and since the utility function is obtained with the help of the consumption function; Finally, increasing consumption will increase utility. Also, the results of the government spending shock on the utility of all provinces except Ilam and South Khorasan are significant. In addition, according to the results, the effects of a positive shock on oil revenues in the first place reduce household utility in all provinces. But gradually this diminishing effect on utility disappears. Also, the results of the oil revenue shock on the utility of all provinces are significant. Finally, a positive exchange rate shock increases household utility in the first period; However, from period 2 onwards, with the emergence of the effects of exchange rate shocks, such as rising inflation and declining purchasing power, and ultimately declining consumption, household utility in all provinces gradually decreases. Also, the results of the exchange rate shock on the utility of all provinces are significant. Also, based on the results of the analysis of variance, with the passage of periods, the effectiveness of the utility variable as a dependent variable has decreased and the effects of other variables have increased over time. Also, the effects of analysis of variance showed that in period 1, all the effects of analysis of variance are absorbed by the variable itself. However, most of the effects of analysis of variance (excluding the effect of self-variable) on utility after 20 periods vary for different provinces between inflation and government spending. Also, the least effects of analysis of variance of different variables after 20 periods on the utility between different provinces differ between exchange rates and oil revenues. In addition, the maximum and minimum effects of analysis of variance on the utility function of the variable itself are for the provinces of Tehran (99.58) and East Azerbaijan (31.53), respectively. Also, for the variables of inflation, government expenditures, oil revenue and exchange rate, the effect of analysis of variance on utility was the highest for Lorestan, Sistan and Baluchestan, Hormozgan and Kurdistan provinces, and the least effect has been obtained for Semnan, Tehran and Kohgiluyeh Boyer Ahmad, respectively.5- CONCLUSION & SUGGESTIONSAccording to the results, it was found that most shocks change the utility of the household. Also, in recent years, the amount of household utility in each province has decreased. One of the main reasons for this decline is the existence of various sanctions and severe fluctuations in macroeconomic variables. One way to prevent welfare decline is for the government to reduce its dependence and indirect household dependence on oil revenues. In fact, since the bulk of the government's revenue is provided in this way, it can easily affect the household by imposing sanctions or international fluctuations in this variable. Therefore, policymakers and planners need to pay special attention to this issue. Also, according to the results, it was found that over time, the value of e has decreased, which indicates a decrease in government intervention and its policies to reduce inequality and income distribution in low-income provinces. In other words, during this period, policymakers' attention to inequality has decreased and in the implementation of projects, less attention has been paid to low-income groups. Therefore, planners need to reconsider their policies in order to improve the situation and pay more attention to lower-income groups and provinces.