محمدرضا کهنسال

The demand function enables the analysis of the effects of the price changes of each input on the amount of demand of the other inputs. In this study, to estimate the demand function of corn inputs in 2017-18, an almost ideal supply system was used by cross-sectional data for 150 farmers in Mahidasht plain of Kermanshah. The results indicated that own-price elasticities of compensated demand are negative for all inputs. Based on the absolute values of the own-price elasticities, demands all inputs are realized to be inelastic. The cross elasticities coefficients revealed complementary relationships between irrigation water and seed and irrigation water and machinery, and the substitutionary relationship between labor and machinery The Allen and Morishima elasticity coefficients showed that machinery and seed are strongly substitutes for seed and labor . Based on the calculated cost elasticities, use of irrigation water and machinery are deeply dependent to the level of spending on corn productioncredits.

Researchers consider social capital as an important component of economic development and a key factor in sustainable rural development, and consider education as a factor in creating and strengthening it too. The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of extension education on farmers' social capital in Khorasan Razavi using seemingly unrelated regression equations. The research tool was a questionnaire that the calculated coefficients indicate its high reliability. The statistical population of this study includes all farmers in the province. Due to the size and dispersion of villages, we used two-stage cluster sampling and the required sample size estimated at 384 people. The results showed that the four components of social capital have different conditions and also the general variable of social capital with an average of 0.61 is slightly higher than the average and therefore does not have favorable conditions. Quchan has the first rank and Khoshab has the second rank. Statistical analysis of the data showed that among the 11 independent variables, education variables, cooperative member and ownership status did not have a significant effect on social capital, but other independent variables showed a significant positive or negative effect on social capital. The variable of participation in the training course (except for the component of social cohesion) had a positive and significant effect on other components and also on the variable of social capital, which indicates the importance and key role of extension training in improving the social capital of farmers.

Foreign trade of agricultural products due to high and stable exchange rate plays an important role in expanding exports and imports against various games. Among agricultural products, saffron is one of the most important agricultural exports that in recent years has been able to maintain and strengthen its position in global markets. It can be an important step to maintain the Iranian authorities - as the largest producer and exporter of saffron - in global markets and further development of the export of this product by using more information about it. Therefore, the present study seeks to investigate the factors affecting the e-commerce of Iranian saffron by being affected by the role of trade sanctions during the period 2007-2018 using a two-way panel model. Appropriate results, variables of export and import volume, economy size, importer income, world trade level index and population have a growing and significant effect and the EU trade embargo variable has a negative and significant effect on trade value. Considering the positive and significant effect of the income variable in Iran's saffron trade and in order to maintain Iran's position in the world market and prevent re-export by other theories of the UAE and Spain, despite the above conditions, a policy is proposed. Saffron can be exported to final markets.

Given the ever-increasing demand for wheat as an Input production in developing countries and the necessity of this product in the household basket, the accurate modeling of the Wheat demand function and determining effective factors for planning, as well as predictions for timely provision with low economic and social costs is important. In this study using underlying trend concept and creating a state - space model and kalman filter algorithms the wheat demand was estimated with emphasis on consumer preferences as a production input (derived demand) during 1982-2017. The results are non-smooth and Nonlinear trend (consumer preferences). Income and pricing elasticity of wheat derived demand less than one were estimated to be -0.0270 and 0.2148, respectively. So from one side Wheat was identified as An essential product with a high degree of urgent need and on the other hand price and income policies are not efficient enough to reduce consumption; So according to consumer preferences and the necessity of this product in the household basket, saving policy and consume right along with reducing waste it is suggested. Increasing efficiency in the conversion industry is one of the other ways to properly consume and reduce the ever-increasing demand for this product. The results of the prediction (in 2023, the projected amount is 24.48 million tons) with respect to consumer preferences in the model showed an increasing trend in wheat demand. Therefore, policymakers on the one hand can reduce demand by making decisions and the other hand provide the wheat needed for the conversion industry.

The implementation of sustainable farming systems is essential for ensuring long-term food supply. One of the most important agricultural products produced in Iran is saffron, which is the main source of income for many villagers in the east of the country. Therefore, attention must be paid to the sustainable saffron cultivation in main saffron production regions. The present study was conducted with the aim of measuring the ecological sustainability of saffron farms in Gonabad county and identifying the socio-economic factors affecting it in 2020. The data collection tool was a questionnaire and 193 questionnaires were completed based on simple random sampling procedure. In order to achieve the research objectives, first, ecological sustainability of farms was evaluated based on 12 criteria and using TOPSIS method. Subsequently, an ordered logit model was carried out to determine the factors affecting farm sustainability. Study findings reveal that perception towards sustainable agriculture, age, income and education, as well as having agricultural insurance and pursuing agriculture as the main job, have positive and significant effect on the probability of saffron farmers to be in more sustainable groups. Training courses, by contrast, has a negative effect on this probability, however, it is not significant at the desired statistical probability level. Therefore, improving farmers' perception towards sustainable agriculture, using the experiences of older farmers, financially supporting saffron growers in order to provide the required inputs, and a fundamental revision of the content of training courses can be considered as strategies to enhance the ecological sustainability of this valuable spice.

In recent decades, due to the universal of organic agriculture around the world, the importance of soil, human and ecosystem health, production of organic and healthy food for the growing population and increasing the country's share in the global markets of organic products, the development of organic agriculture is widespread in Iran. Therefore, in this paper, an attempt has been made to study the tendency to adopt of saffron farmers for production of organic saffron Compared to the conventional product and the factors affecting it. The statistical population of the study is saffron farmers of Torbat-e Heydariyeh and Zaveh. Based on the table of Bartlett et al., the sample size was 380 people. The stratified random sampling method was used for selection of individuals in the community and to analyze the data, the Heckman Tobit two-step model was used. The data gathered from Torbat-e Heydariyeh region’s saffron farmers’ answers to the prepared questionnaire in 2019. Based on the results, the variables of experience, education, consumption of livestock manure and awareness index in the Probit model have a positive and significant effect and the variables of main activity and chemical fertilizer consumption have a negative and significant effect on adopting organic saffron production. The variable of negative attitude towards organic cultivation in the linear regression pattern was significant and positive. Therefore, a negative attitude leads to a tendency of farmers to receive more money for the cultivation of organic saffron. The variables of experience, education and main activity in the linear regression model have a positive and significant effect and the variables of income, farm area and farm age have a negative and significant effect on the willingness of farmers to earn money for organic saffron cultivation. Based on the results, it is suggested that saffron farmers be informed about the management of organic farms, the market for the selling organic products in different ways and prepare requirements for new saffron producers to take benefit from the experiences of skilled saffron producers.

Sustainable agricultural development is a multidimensional concept, has become increasingly important over time. Therefore, identifying the factors affecting each of the dimensions of sustainable agriculture is necessary for proper planning. In this paper, an attempt is made to determine the factors affecting the four dimensions of sustainable agricultural development in Khorasan Razavi province by using seemingly unrelated regression equations (SURE) and using a sample of 398 farmers selected by two-stage random cluster method. Data obtained from the completion of the questionnaire in 2019. The results show that, the average indicator of social sustainability is 0.55, environmental sustainability is 0.47, economic sustainability is 0.41 and political sustainability is 0.32. Also, there are significat correlations between variables of participation in training courses, interest in agriculture and job satisfaction with the components of agricultural sustainability. There is significat correlation between membership in farmers' cooperative with political stability, land ownership with social and political components, and land integration with economic component of sustainability. Accordingly, it is suggested that extension trainings in the field of sustainable agriculture be developed. According to the priority of managerial sustainability, investment in agricultural infrastructure, improvement of decision-making methods, development and strengthening of agricultural organizations, development of support laws and the development of sustainable employment be on the desicionmakers. In addition, developing a proper marketing system with the aim of preventing waste and reducing production costs will ensure the stability of farmers' incomes.

Good governance consists a set of norms and values. In this research, we first use the Meta-synthesis method to find the important factors of agricultural governance worldwide. We have Iranian experts for ranking the variables by using the Shanon Entropy method. These experts weigh the variables by a pairwise comparison matrix of Fuzzy method. The results of the Meta-synthesis model show that international policy, group participation, and observance standards have the highest importance and rank. However, the Type-2 Fuzzy analysis the factors of agricultural sustainability, group participation have the highest weight in the political, social and environmental areas and the factors of increase production, and marketing have the highest weight in the economic area.

Survey of revealed preferences of Iranian citizens for sugar and lump Mohammad Reza Kohansal and Elahe Azam Rahmati Abstract The high proportion of sugar and lump of sugar of energy’s consumption shows that many Iranian households are extremely dependent on these products in their food bundle. Therefore, recognizing consumer preferences for the types of products is very important for policy making and planning. In this study, it was investigated the structural changes in consumer preferences between (2007)-(2017) years. To achieve the goal non-parametric approaches is used that is based on Weak Axiom of Revealed Preference (WARP). The results of nonparametric approach indicated that there is an inconsistency in the WARP matrix in years of 2010, 2011 and 2012. The assumption of the reliability of consumer preferences has been violated in these years, which an important reason for it is increasing tariffs of imported sugar. JEL Classification: D11 Keywords: Preferences, Sugar, lump of sugar, WARP matrix.

Production inputs are one of the most important factors affecting the risk of agricultural products. This study aimed at investigating the effects of inputs on the production risk of irrigated and rainfed wheat through the information collected from 221 producers of these products in eastern region of Golestan province of Iran in the 2015-2016 cropping year using the suggested model of Just and Pope (1979). The results showed that for both products, seed input had a significant positive impact on the average production; also, the inputs of fertilizer and consumed water had the production increasing impact on the average irrigated wheat production, while such an impact could be found by application of the inputs including fertilizer, pesticide, machinery and labor for the rainfed wheat. In addition, the study results indicated that the pesticide input used for both products had a risk increasing impact on the production; furthermore, the inputs of seed and labor for the rainfed wheat and the fertilizer and machinery inputs for the irrigated wheat reduced the production risk. Therefore, the study recommended using properly the risk reducing inputs at the right time to reduce the production risk of irrigated and rainfed wheat crops and as a result, to increase the average production of such a strategic product.

The sub-branch of food industry is one of the most profitable ways communication between two sectors of industry and agriculture and also prerequisite for an industrialization strategy and providing food security in country. The present study tries to examine effect of exchange rate volatility on Iran's food Industries exports and value added by framework SVAR at period of 1972-2015. The examined variables include of food Industries exports, exchange rate volatility, value added, inflation rate, and Iran's trade-offs. The results showed that short-run effects of trade-offs and inflation rate variables are negatively correlated and value-added and exchange rate volatility variables are positively correlated to food exports. On the other hand, long-run results between variables showed that all variables in the long-run have positive relationships with food Industries exports. According to the results, it is suggested that government put in place control of inflation and improvement of short-run exchange relationship. Also, the results indicate that exchange rate volatility increase export volume in short-run (beginning of period) and in following periods cause exporters activities to become less active than importers activities and reduce export volume of food industry.Therefore, due to direct and positive long-run exchange rate volatility effects on food exports and role of these industries in development and value added, development of food exports products with a focus on expansion of these industries and use of conversion and complementary industries with agricultural products to increase shelf life of products is suggested. Also, since exchange rate volatility increases food exports only in a short-run in first period, it is sujested to invesigate the risks of food-related activities and lack of price stability and market regulation for the future studies.

Governance is the way rules, norms and actions are structured, sustained, regulated and held accountable in a society. Works by the World Bank and other multilateral development banks on good governance addresses economic institutions and public sector management, including transparency and accountability, regulatory reform, and public sector skills and leadership. Governance has political, economic, and administrative dimensions. It is particularly relevant to agriculture. For agriculture, political governance is the process of decision-making to formulate agricultural policy whereas economic governance emphasizes decision-making processes that affect economic activities and their relationships with the agricultural economy. Administrative governance deals with the implementation of policy. In most developing countries, the government tries to improve the agriculture and guarantee livelihoods via consultation with farmers’ organizations, NGOs, civil society, development economists, the private sector, and coordinate between the legal, economic and social systems, and institutions of governance (Stead 2015). Good governance for agriculture encourages better services by “bringing government closer to farmers”. Iran faces challenges in all of the World Bank's defined governance indicators (transparency and accountability, political stability, violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and corruption control). They used an indicator of governance from the World Bank which varies from -2.5 (the weakest) to 2.5 (the strongest). All governance indicators were negative for Iran, suggesting much room for improvement. Better governance would reduce internal and external barriers of development and improve the management of domestic resources by creating a more transparent regulatory structure. These changes could lead to faster growth in Iran’s agricultural sector. Meat plays a significant role in providing protein and calories for the Iranian population. Fluctuations in meat supply and demand affect people's food consumption patterns. Meat prices have been particularly volatile in recent years. The government is obliged to support increased production of animal protein (livestock and poultry) and they can accomplish this by improving agricultural (livestock) governance. Therefore, we investigate the role of governance in improving agricultural and livestock farming performance in this research.

After selecting the agricultural governance variables, we investigate the impact of agricultural governance variables on Iran’s livestock and meat market. An Equilibrium Displacement Model (EDM) is used to evaluate the effects of agricultural governance variables on producers and consumers of meat. The EDM model determines the effects of agricultural governance variables on price and quantity of livestock products by shifting the supply and demand functions before and after the implementation of agricultural governance variables with different scenarios. This is the first study to measure the impact of agricultural governance on vertical and horizontal meat markets by using an EDM. In order to assess the impact of agricultural governance on the livestock and meat markets, we consider the horizontal markets among cattle, chicken, and sheep, as well as vertical markets within each species, including the farm and retail markets. The specification of an EDM includes the percentage change in the price and quantity of each species (beef, chicken and mutton) in retail markets and farm markets.

The results of percentage change in the price (EP) and quantity (EQ) for the retail and farm level meat market after applying the agricultural governance variables of the Fifth Development Program are shown in Table (4) for 2018. After increasing agricultural governance in the meat market, the percentage change in price (EP) for beef, chicken and mutton are negative at the retail and farm level, and the percentage change of quantity (EQ) are positive at the retail and farm level. These results show the positive effect of implementing agricultural governance. Also, the results showed that annual investment growth at 2.23% has a larger effect on quantities at the farm level for chicken, beef and mutton. Growth in  cooperative expenditures (and production inputs) of 0.11% per year has a larger effect on retail prices for chicken; while the 0.21% annual growth of employment has smaller effects on retail prices for chicken. In addition, the annual investment growth variable has the largest effect among governance variables on the total surplus of meat producers.

According to the research findings, the investment variable has the largest impact on price. By increasing investment in the livestock sector, it is possible to use not only modern technology and equipment on livestock farms, but also to employ experts and skilled labor in the production process. Employing university graduates in the areas of farm management, nutrition, livestock and poultry production, animal health, and other technical areas could bring huge profits to producers. In addition, cooperatives play an important role in the marketing. When cooperatives enter the supply chain, there are improvements in input supply, assembly, processing, and product distribution.

in this study, we try to examine the interrelationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions and fossil fuel energy consumption in the short and long run, Without prejudging the endogenous or exougenous nature of each one. Also, the effect of foreign direct investment and exports and imports on each of the variables of economic growth, energy use and carbon dioxide emissions was investigated separately. For this purpose, gross domestic product per capita, per capita carbon dioxide, foreign direct investment, energy use (oil equivalent) export and import levels were used during the period from 1970 to 2015. The results of impuls response functions indicate that there is a two-way relationship between each of the variables of energy consumption and GDP and carbon dioxide emission. Also, the results of variance decomposition indicate that in the long run, among the variables studied, last year's economic growth, export and direct foreign investment have the greatest impact on GDP. and The amount of last year's CO2 emission, economic growth and export will have the greatest impact on carbon dioxide emissions.

Using spatial econometrics to investigate the factors affecting the share of cheese brands in the Mashhad market can improve the standard econometric degradation. In this research, we have been trying to select a model that considers spatial communication between brands (with emphasis on diversity). The results of the SAC pattern estimated for the share of the Kalleh showed that the Kalleh diversity has a positive and significant relation with the share of the Kalleh, and the other variety of brands (Pegah and Sabah) has a negative and significant relationship. Also, the price of the Kalleh with the share of the Kalleh has a negative and significant relationship. The results of the SEM pattern estimated for Pegah share showed that Kalleh and Sabah diversity had a negative and significant relation with the share of Pegah cheese and Pegah diversity had a positive and significant relation with Pegah’s share. The results of the SDM pattern estimated for Sabah showed Kalleh and Pegah variety have a negative and significant relation with the share of Sabah cheese and Sabah variety has a positive and significant relation with Sabah’s share. The price of Kalleh has a negative and significant relationship with Sabah’s share. Sabah also has a negative (statistically meaningless) relation with Sabah prices. Based on this research, it can be suggested that the brands of Kalah, Pegah and Sabah should increase the focus on cheese diversity in order to increase their share in Mashhad cheese market.

Inefficiency of marketing networks of agricultural products and the price differences between sale price by farmers and purchase price by final consumers are the main issues in the marketing of agricultural products. This study aimed mainly at investigating the factors affecting the marketing margins in Neyshabour plain of Iran. For this purpose, within the geographically weighted regression with adaptive cores (GWR-A), the upgraded version of ‘Mark Up Model’ was used for all crops. Statistics and information were obtained through interviews and questionnaires completed by 366 farmers in 2016. Moran test results showed that there was a positive spatial autocorrelation on the marketing margin of crops. The results of GWR model indicated a positive impact of marketing costs and retail prices in most areas is positive and a negative impact of cultivated areas on the marketing margins. Also, the coefficients of the Mark Up Model were estimated regionally and with respect to farmer’s location. Finally, a number of suggestions were made, including: reforming the marketing network in order to reduce the margin of the market, using statistical methods based on the location of data in similar studies, reforming the market system and the sale of products based on the development of professional commerce companies, implementing the special information plans related to the market information on agricultural products as well as the implementation of specific cultural and social programs.

In this research, had Analysis the effect of five macroeconomic variables including exchange rate, gross domestic product, prices of agriculture, agricultural investment and money supply on agricultural goods exports. In the present study, using Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) and the Johansen method and during period 65-1393. The results show that agricultural goods exports variable has a positive and significant effect with exchange rate variable, relative prices variable, money supply variable. And it has a negative and significant effect on agriculture investment. There is also a one-way causal relationship between the exchange rate and agricultural exports and the supply of money and agricultural exports, too. In addition, ECM show if agricultural exports are an imbalance, it will balance with decline a quarter in a year. To determine the relationship between variables in the long run used Johansson method. The vectors are convergent. The results of this study suggest that economic authorities try to reform the exchange rate and eliminate the official rate and free rate deviation arbitrarily. That is the best way to establish the stability of the currency and, consequently, long-term export stability. To do this, you have to lead the production of cash and money to produce and boost market capitalization.

The role of governance is attracting much attention these days and is often considered as a major reason why some countries have experienced faster economic growth than others. A typical definition of governance is the process of making and implementing decisions that affect economic, political and social institutions. Much of this idea of governance, or good governance, is related to the functioning of government within a country, but the concept of governance involves more actors than just government. It includes companies, political parties, the military, non-government organizations (both domestic and international) and even influential individuals. All of these structures have an influence on how decisions are made within a country.

The agricultural sector plays a major role in human life, but the share of this sector has decreased in the economic development of Iran. So due to economic sanctions and numerous challenges, attention should be paid to agriculture in Iran. In this study, we determine the factors of agricultural governance which can be used to improve Iran’s agricultural sector. We first use the Meta-synthesis method to find the important factors/variables that have been used in the literature to investigate agricultural governance worldwide. Then we present these variables to two Iranian experts who rank the variables on a worldwide basis using the Shannon Entropy method (which is explained later). The variables from the Meta-synthesis analysis are also presented to a selected group of ten Iranian experts. They identify the important variables of agricultural governance in Iran by modifying, adding, and deleting variables from the meta-synthesis. These experts weigh the variables by a Binary Comparison Matrix (which is explained later). Experts are selected by Snowball sampling and they complete their list (and ranking) through Delphi method. Finally, we compare the global agricultural governance variables from the Shannon Entropy method with those from the pairwise comparison matrix using the Fuzzy method.

The results from the pairwise comparison matrix in Iran are different from the results of the Meta-synthesis method worldwide. The Meta-synthesis method shows that international policy, group participation, and cooperative companies, and observance standards have the highest importance and rank. However, for the fuzzy analysis the factors of agricultural employment, group participation and cooperative companies have the highest weight in the political, social and environmental areas and the factors of increase production, and financial and capital markets have the highest importance in the economic area. The group participation and cooperative companies are common in both methods. Group participation and cooperative companies provide a connection between people and government so that popular demands are easily communicated to the government. Group participation refers to an approach toward building accountability that relies on civil engagement – in which ordinary farmers or cooperative companies demand accountability. The role of group participation is not to replace but to complement and enhance public accountability mechanisms. It includes two categories including Formal social participation, which are social participation mechanisms that are formally written in laws and Informal social participation, which are social participation mechanisms which are not written in law. Easy access to financial resources is one of the requirements for investment and development of the agricultural sector. However, due to the characteristics of the agricultural sector in Iran, and the lack of developed agricultural financial markets, this sector faces investment constraints. The agricultural sector can be one of the sectors which provides meaningful employment for the rural population. This research suggests that increasing agricultural employment is important for improving agricultural governance. Despite having such a large reduction in employment, the agricultural sector still employs three times more than any other sector. Agricultural production is vitally important to the world. Agriculture is the main source of livelihood for 2.5 billion people in the world, yet the growth of agricultural productivity has stalled. Yields for major grains grow by about 1 percent per year, which is lower than the population growth rate. Given that, expanding the cultivated area is not possibility to meet future needs so increasing agricultural productivity is the only solution to feeding the growing (urbanized) population (who has higher food demand). The use of modern communications methods in extension services can foster adoption of new technologies and promote profitable cultivation among farmers. Increasing productivity among smallholders in developing countries is a crucial instrument to guarantee food security in the long-run (Dethier et al, 2011). One of the most important worldwide variables of agricultural governance is international policy. The international aspects of agriculture policy have an important role in pursuing the fundamental objectives of governments. For instance, the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union emphasizes agricultural productivity, as a fair standard of living for farmers, ensuring reasonable prices for consumers, and promoting stability in markets (in particular stabilizing imports and exports) as well as food security (Ciolos, 2012). Another significant variable in agricultural governance worldwide is observance standards. Standards and technical regulations have attracted increasing attention in ongoing regional and global trade policy dialogue as tariff and quota issues seem to assume a declining dimension. With the reduction in the applicability of tariff barriers, the adoption rate of standards as a trade restrictive strategy has increased significantly.

Group participation shows that the introduction of civic engagement into the entire process of allocating, spending and monitoring public resources can help produce significant operational results (improved performance, the introduction of corrective measures) and process outcomes (Institutional, behavioral and relational changes). This can take the form of direct farmer participation in formulating public policy and budgets in the agricultural sector. Participatory policy formulation has become an increasingly common trend, particularly with the introduction of the poverty reduction strategies at the national and community levels driven by development initiatives at the local level. Participatory budget formation usually occurs at the local level, but at higher levels, representatives of the farming community can play an important role in expressing farmers' preferences in setting up and financing budgets.

The strong fluctuations resulting from crude oil exports, the increase in population and the end of oil resources have led policy makers to develop exports and get rid of the single-product economy. In this regard, paying attention to forest products, rangelands, medicinal plants, which are among the most valuable resources in natural resources, is very important. This research was conducted with the aim of determining the relative advantage of medicinal plants and the structure of the global market for medicinal plants and planning their exportation, during the period of 2017-2005. To determine the relative advantage, RCA and RSCA indices were applied, in addition to determine the structure of the market, the concentration ratio and HHI were applied and for the commercial mapping of medicinal plants TM index were used.The results showed that Sri Lanka, Vietnam, India and Indonesia possessed the most relative advantage in exporting medicinal plants, and Iran possessed relative advantage during the course of the study except the year 2015. The results of the market structure showed that the global market for medicinal plant exports is A closed multilateral monopoly and between open and closed multilateral monopolies. And in the discussion of the business map, the results showed that during 2013 and 2002, when the global market is declining, iran has appeared in some years as a winner. And during 2016-2014, when the global market is growing, it has often appeared as a winner. Also, calculating the TM index with regard to agricultural products shows that in all years it is the same as before.

In most previous studies concerning investigation of factors affecting economic growth, spatial dependencies have been ignored which would result in biased and inconsistent estimates. At first, economic growth of a country is influenced by its own geographical, internal conditions and capabilities then affected by the spillover effects of neighboring countries and its trading partners, which these influences by others on growth of a country are called spatial effects and spatial dependencies. Therefore, this study examines the factors affecting economic growth by using the spatial dynamic panel method in both developed countries (members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) and developing countries (members of the Economic Cooperation Organization) during the 2001-2015 period. The innovation of current research is to use dynamic matrix derived from bilateral trade of countries, which varies over time. By estimating spatial growth model, positive spillover effects from one country to its trading partners have been confirmed in both developed and developing countries. By comparing the results, only the physical capital factor has contributed to improving the growth of developing countries, while in developed countries, in addition to physical capital, two factors including human capital and trade have provided further growth. In order to capture positive effects of trade on advancing economic growth of ECO countries, it has been suggested to consider political and institutional changes in economic development programs.

The purpose of this study was to assess the relative importance of factors affecting the differentiation of income levels and the success of investment in agricultural businesses in the villages of Islamshahr. Differences in the rates of effectiveness and profitability of agricultural activities exacerbate economic dispersal, difference in the levels of farmers' livelihood, and the imbalance among the economic costs of agricultural jobs in a rural area. Regarding the diversity of cropland sizes in the region, the stratified sampling method was used to appropriately select a sample size of 195 people who took part in interviews and completed questionnaires. In this study, based on a descriptive and inferential approach, the three-branch model framework and the multiple discriminant analysis were used to evaluate the relative importance of the factors that affect the inequality of income levels of rural farmers. The results showed that most of the farmers were land owners and held secondary high school degrees. Also their average farming experience was about 20 years, and their main occupation was agriculture. Most agricultural lands in the region were found still using traditional irrigation methods, and more than 28% of the farmers did not consider the accessibility of water desirable. The results also showed that structural and environmental factors were the most important factors affecting the income gap among the farmers in the region. From the structural point of view, the type of land ownership and land size emerged as the most important factors to determine the probability of being in the lowest-income group.

One of the main objectives of brands in the market is to preserve and develop market share that brand diversity can play significant role in this regard. Diversification in companies should be performed based on recognizing the consumers’ needs and increased social welfare of them. In this study, diversity, price, and preferred value of Kaleh and Pegah brands of cheese in Mashhad market were estimated using data of Naushad project and Pegah Milk Industry (including 425 food stores in 2014) and using seemingly unrelated regression system in the form of four scenarios. Then, changes in consumer surplus, and social welfare and profit per one unit increase in diversity of each brand have been calculated. The results showed that in the first scenario, increasing the the price of Kaleh brand compared to Pegah brand caused reduction in change of consumer surplus for Kaleh brand, increasing the profit of food stores and reducing the social welfare surplus. The second scenario showed that reducing the price of Kaleh brand compared to Pegah brand leads respectively to increase change in consumer surplus, reducing the profit changes for Kaleh brand and increased social welfare. In the third scenario, change in consumer surplus reduces per one unit increase in Pegah brand diversity. Also in third scenario, profit changes increases per one unit of increase in diversity of Pegah brand. In the fourth scenario, per one unit increase in the diversity of the Pegah brand leads to a slightly change in consumer surplus of the Pegah brand. In the fourth scenario, the change in profit per unit increase in the diversity of Pegah brands decreases and leads to a slight decline in social welfare. Based on the results of this study, it can be said that the time of diversification of Kaleh brand increases the social welfare, which, with an increase in the diversity of Kaleh brand, does not increase the price of Kaleh brand compared to Pegah brand.

Corruption is one of the most important determinant factors in economic fields, specifically in trade; and nowadays, it is crucial to know what factors reinforce or mitigate it. Trade openness is an influencing factor on corruption, and the extant literature has two different general perspectives facing that. The first perspective emphasizes that openness has a negative impact on corruption, while the second idea believes that such impact is positive. Hence, the aim of this paper is to answer this question: “what is the effect of openness on corruption in selected MENA countries” To this end, our analysis is based on panel data that covered 10 MENA countries for 2003–2014. The results indicate that, along with the negative effect of per capita income and institutional quality such as ruling law, political stability and regulation quality, the effect of openness is also negative and significant. In other words, increase and expansion of trade and creating a competitive environment, as well as interacting with countries with systemic structure and less corruption, contributes to improving the institutional and legal environment in the MENA countries, so that, consequently, corruption would decrease. Accordingly, since the rank of Iran in openness and corruption is tenth and second among ten countries respectively, it is recommended that reducing trade barriers such as import tariff and creating a free market, would result in the fall of corruption through reducing monopoly rents of authorities in the field of trade, especially in imports.

In terms of quality and quantity, Iranian saffron has a considerable position at the international level and by taking advantage of the existing capacity; we can significantly increase the export earnings from it. On the other hand, sales forecasting based on time series analysis is s a very important element for the designing and implementing of marketing strategies in the international arena. However, the conventional approaches to forecasting, by ignoring the linear (or nonlinear) structure of data, do not provide accurate results. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to design a hybrid model consisting of two methods, artificial neural networks (ANN) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), in order to overcome the deficiencies and the use of the unique features of the each of these methods. Using the data related to the export of Iranian saffron during the period 1904-2013, the results of the study showed that the ARIMAANN hybrid model is stronger and better performance than ARIMA and ANN individual models in order to forecasting of Iranian saffron export. Therefore, given the considerable performance ARIMAANN hybrid model, the use of this model is recommended in setting strategies related to the export and also in the forecasting of the forecasting of time series variables.

Complex management of water resources requires the application of a different perspective technical, economic, environmental and social that it requires considering the needs of all beneficiaries. The main objective of this study is to introduce hydro-economic model and modeling it in one of the country's catchment for analyzing water resources management policies. For this purpose, climatic and meteorological data and also interviews and questionnaires completed by farmer's Neyshabur catchment were used. Hydro-economic modeling composed of two main parts: hydrologic and economic. WEAP model was used in hydrological sector and regional (spatial) positive programming was used in economical sector. Strategies used in this study consists of three main scenarios were considered reducing the availability of water resources in agriculture that their impact on cropping pattern and then change the crop pattern on water resources were examined. The results of economic sector in hydro-economic model showed that most affected by the implementation of various policy scenarios is related to the first region, so that the cultivation levels was decreased about 13.4 percent in first scenario, 20.59 percent in second scenario and 29.11 percent in third scenario. In hydrologic sector of hydro-economic model, changes in cropping pattern on consumption of water resources based on different scenarios were simulated using WEAP model. The results showed that the greatest impact on reducing water consumption was related to the third scenario that the main reason for the change is reducing the area under cultivation of various crops. Also implementation of various scenarios on water allocation between the main applicants influenced water and causing the unmet supply reduced in three sectors of agriculture, industry and drinking in the years 2013-2035.

Stable modeling in water resources management requires recognizing the relations between the different uses of water and their long-term results on one hand and taking into account the current and future access to water resources and demands for them, on the other hand. In recent years, Hamedan-Bahar plain has been identified as one of the restricted groundwater areas in Hamedan province. In this plain, the groundwater level has decreased remarkably due to lack of the proper water management. The aim of this study is to provide a model to maximize the net benefit of farmers considering the stability of the groundwater. Since the effect of discharge groundwater is accumulated over time, time is taken as an essential variable in solving water optimization problems. Accordingly, applying dynamic models such as the optimal control method is appropriate for this purpose. The optimal path for water extraction from groundwater resources can be determined using the optimal control model. In this model, the additional cost of water extraction due to the further exploitation has been considered as a constraint in the modeling process. The effect of the added costs on optimal path and the price of water has also been investigated. Considering the optimal use of water and maximum welfare of the farmers, the results show that it will take about 45 years for the water level to increase from 1716 meters to the optimal level of 1732 meters. During this period, the price of water will decrease from 3200 to 2200 Riyals per cubic meter and the annual harvest from the groundwater resources will reduce to the level of 1.7 million cubic meters. Therefore, fulfilling the specified limit not only results in stable groundwater resources, but also leads to a sustainable agricultural development and enhancement of farmers income.