محمدرضا گودرزی

In arid and semi-arid regions, groundwater is more important for humans and ecosystems than surface water. Land subsidence is caused by the pumping and uncontrolled use of groundwater in an area. When the extracted quantities are not replenished by rainfall, it leads to damages such as road failures, destruction of residential areas, railways, as well as water and gas pipelines. The Yazd-Ardakan plain is one of the main plains in Yazd province, hosting 75% of the province's population density and most industrial centers. Additionally, this plain has been subjected to a ban by the Ministry of Energy due to a sharp decline in groundwater levels. This study aimed to quantify and compare the extent of subsidence using four Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images of the C-band from the Sentinel-1 satellite and the radar differential interferometry method from 2017 to 2021. The maximum subsidence recorded in 2017 was 13 cm, while in 2020 and 2021, it decreased to 9 cm, primarily concentrated in the Shamsi region between Meybod and Ardakan. Furthermore, to validate the satellite-derived results, they were compared with those obtained through accurate leveling methods conducted by the Iran National Cartographic Center. The study revealed that Sentinel images exhibit a strong capability to estimate the extent of subsidence. Considering the examination of groundwater consumption and depletion statistics in recent years, potential reasons for the reduction in subsidence in the study area could be attributed to management measures such as water transfer to this basin, alterations in agricultural practices, and a decrease in groundwater depletion compared to previous years in this region.

In the literature of macroeconomics, the promotion of human capital is so important that if economic growth occurs and this growth cannot improve the condition of human capital, it seems that the efforts have been fruitless. Human capital is measured through the HDI index, and due to the need to improve it, many studies have been conducted in this field. Human capital in any country is based on the state of human capital in the provinces of the country. Providing better services to human capital will improve this huge capital, and achieving it requires the existence of sufficient funds and powers in the provinces. The vastness of the country may not allow the government to optimally allocate resources, therefore, usually local authorities try to have more powers for the growth of human capital through various pursuits and bargaining, which increases the authority of the governors, which is financial decentralization and financial decentralization. It is a multi-dimensional process in which some powers are transferred from the central government to the governors, and the most important of which is the return of all the revenues of each province to the same province and the sending of grants to the provinces through the central government. This study was conducted to determine the effect of financial decentralization on human development in the provinces of Iran, in which three cities and towns were selected as samples from each province. The technique used in this research is panel data. In this method, the data have time series and cross-sectional characteristics, consist of several dimensions and cover several periods. The research period is 1397 to 1400. The equations related to the independent and dependent variables of this research are taken from the research model of Suyanto (2009), Langudi (2006) and Khosini (2006). The results of the research show that the increase in financial decentralization and the return of revenues from each province to the same province and even grants from the central government have a significant positive effect on the amount of public spending, economic growth, reducing the population of low-income people and finally improving the human capital index. It has provinces.

Water-centric thinking in water resources management and recognizing water as a purely economic commodity can create many challenges in a country's policies. But a holistic view, such as the Water-Energy-Food Nexus, sheds light on the multicentric nature of water resources management, and that consider each as a security commodity, not a purely economic one. The nexus approach pays equal attention to the security of all three parts and their interaction. Therefore, in this study, using the global database and global projects conducted to estimate the Nexus index, the results of Iran's output and position among 170 registered countries were analyzed. Also, the criteria are ranked by a Water-centric perspective using Analytical Hierarchy process (AHP) and compared with project weights. Iran ranks 84th in the global nexus index, with the energy sector ranking 49th and the highest among other water and food sectors. According to studies, Iran is in the middle position, but some neighboring countries such as Turkey and the UAE are in the 54th and 52nd positions. Weight prioritization also showed that the water-centric perspective can underestimate the effect of important indicators.

Today, the excessive use of fossil fuels has increased the emissions of greenhouse and climate change. Climate change not only affects changes in the mean of variables such as temperature and total precipitation, but also increases the incidence of maximum events. Therefore, the impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation parameters as well as extreme precipitation can be very important for future planning.

In this study, to investigate the effect of climate change on temperature and precipitation parameters, CanESM2 general circulation model, according to assessment report fifth (AR5) of the intergovernmental panel on climate change used of new scenarios Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) Contains RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and Statistical down scaling model (SDSM) for down scaling Large scale data GCM for simulation has been used during the period 2030-2059. Then the efficiency of the model will be evaluated with three indicators: root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2) and nash–sutcliffe efficiency (NSE).

The results of the research in the first stage of downscaling with the SDSM model show the good efficiency of the model. The R2 and NSE coefficients for the calibration period of the Azarshahr station are 0.99, 0.99 for temperature and 0.95, 0.95, precipitation and for the Ghermezigol station is 0.91, 0.86. The results indicate the minimum and maximum temperature increase, especially in the month of April to July in this basin, with the highest increase relative to RCP8.5 at 0.26 ° C. Also, precipitation in the Azarshahr station increased by 7.44% under RCP 2.6 and at the Ghermezigol station decreased by 7.57%, under RCP8.5. The decreasing trend of precipitation can be seen in the scenarios, so that the most pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5) shows the greatest decrease. The results of the investigation of extreme rainfalls showed that despite the climate changes and the decrease of precipitation and increase in temperature and consequently the increase of evaporation and the lack of water resources and drought, one should not ignore floods and extreme rainfalls.

In general, the results have shown an increase in the amount of maximum rainfall in the future. With such simulations, it can be seen that climate change has caused an increase in the amount and frequency of extreme rainfall, even in basins that have brought about a decrease in average annual rainfall. In the present study, in the stations where the amount of rainfall increases in different seasons, the increase in the amount of rainfall will increase the risk of flooding, so it is necessary to pay special attention to the management of water resources and flood control of the basin.

The development of any society depends on efficient management in its family and social systems. Management systems play a prominent role in guiding members of religiously oriented communities by representing, determining, and preserving values. The religion of Islam has been sensitive in determining the characteristics of Islamic planners and managers; Therefore, to reveal the criteria of a worthy manager, the present study deals with the subject of scientific-spiritual management of family and community based on the characteristics of competent managers according to the Holy Quran and the narration of the lives of religious elders such as Joseph and Ali Ibn Abi Talib. This study was done by document analysis method, holy and ritual books and sources indexed in scientific databases such as Science Direct (www.sciencedirect.com), Google Scholar (scholar.google.com), National Publications Database (www.magiran.com), and the specialized publisher of Iranian conferences (civilica.com) were the documents analyzed in this study. The findings of the analysis showed that efficient family and community management requires the characteristics of asceticism and self-sufficiency; motivation to benevolence and social interest; hardiness in commitment; justice; developmental maturity; responsibility; commitment to sensitivity and care; and professional knowledge and expertise. Based on these findings, the competence of family and community management can be recognized based on religious texts to develop appropriate evaluation scales for selecting the appropriate spouse, and selecting and replacing competent managers in organizations.

Improvement of an axial compressor performance through suppression of flow disturbances due to inlet flow blockage, utilizing air injection at the blade tip region, is the subject of the present study. Method of investigation is based on experimental measurements conducted in a low speed isolated axial compressor rotor blade row. Four different blockage screens of different blockage ratios ranged between 5 and 20 percent of the inlet area are located at the compressor entrance. Instantaneous and time-averaged static pressure are recorded at different locations of compressor casing. Frequency analyses of pressure signals, show that the flow disturbances are being created in the presence of the blockage screens. These disturbances cause to appearance of rotating stall in the flow field when the compressor operates under distorted inflow with low blockage ratios (5 and 10%). To reduce the destructive effects of the inlet distortion, air is injected at the tip region of the rotor through 12 injectors which are located evenly spaced around the compressor circumference. Air injection in small quantities, 1.5% of main flow, has considerable effects on the compressor performance under inlet distortion. The rotor performance and compressor delivery pressure is improved up to 35% than to the no injection case. By implementation of Short-Time Fourier Transform (STFT) technique effects of air injection on elimination or reduction of flow disturbances are demonstrated, too.

Flood is a multivariate and complex phenomenon that has a random nature. In conventional methods of flood frequency analysis, only flood peak variable is important and it is assumed that the variable under consideration follows a particular parametric distribution function. In contrast to the Copula functions, it is capable of linking the marginal distributions of a variable different to each other and generating multivariate distributions. Analysis have been performed along with flood variables using the Copula functions that do not have the limitations of classical single distributions. The probability distribution and return periods of peak and volume flood variables in the AjiChay Basin in the province of East Azarbaijan have been investigated using of the Copula function of Gumbel–Hougaard for bivariate mathematical modeling. The results indicated that the use of the Copula functions of conditional cumulative distribution functions, as well as return periods of flood variables, is estimated with great accuracy with the average coefficient of NSE 0.745 and RMSE of 0.56. The estimated values of the peak flow and volume discharge from the bivariate analysis with univariate analysis with a 100-year return period were less than the observe amounts for all stations, which are influenced by the interaction of the two variables, peak flow and discharge volume. These values were 230 and 300.75 m3/s respectively, at Akhola Station, indicating that the use of the Copula function will economize the designs and reduce risk.

 Due to climate change that is happening, the security of water and food in Iran has caused many worries, which include small towns like Boroujerd. A comprehensive assessment is necessary as well as the productivity of water resources, because it can provide information for government agencies and the public to develop appropriate patterns. The aim of this study is the use and productivity of water resources in Borujerd city, the aim of this study to utilize appropriately the existing water resources in the city of Boroujerd and it is based on recycling and reusing water resources and reduced harvesting of ground water. So the potential of water saving and return to the cycle has been evaluated, and the results can be used as a potential solution for water shortage in Boroujerd in the future.

 Water, energy, and food security globally are achieved through a communication approach, an approach that integrates governance and management into all over sectors and scales. A communication approach can support the transition to a green economy which aims instead, among other things, the use of resources and policy coherence. Given the increasing communication between sectors in space and time, reducing economic, social and adverse environmental concerns can increase overall resource efficiency, more benefits and provide human rights for water and food. Therefore in a relationship-based approach, common policy and decision making an approach which reduces the composition and creates collaboration among sectors is in need.Currently, the most reliable tool to produce climate scenarios is the paired 3D Atmosphere-Oceans General Circulation Models which called AOGCM in this paper. AOGCM is based on the physical relationships that are presented by mathematical relations. In formulating its AR5 synthesis report, the IPCC has made use of new RCP scenarios of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The IPCC society has used new scenarios as trajectory representatives of various concentrations of greenhouse gases. New scenarios have four key trajectories called RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 that are based on their radiative stimulus in 2100 and different specifications of the technology level, social and economic situation and future policies.LARS-WG is a random weather generator that can be used to simulate atmospheric data at a station under current and future climate conditions. The first version developed in Budapest in 1990 as part of an agricultural risk assessment in Hungary, then reviewed and moderated by Semenov in 1998. This model produces a daily time series of minimum and maximum temperature, rainfall and solar radiation.

 Concerning precipitation variations, it can be concluded that changes in winter months from January to March in RCP2.6 will decrease by 20%. Rainfall variations in the spring are the same and have equal status with the base time. In summer, two scenarios experience a 40% reduction, in fall, RCP2.6 shows a 20% increase in rainfall and the scenario RCP8.5 shows about 10% precipitation reduction. The two scenarios show at least 1.5 degrees Celsius increase and the highest increases are in fall, and in October, a rise of 2.5 degrees has seen. Maximum temperature changes which indicate the temperature increase to 2 degrees at least in both scenarios. In scenario RCP8.5, in winter and fall, the maximum temperature is increased to 2.5 and 3 degrees, respectively. Boroujerdʼs water and sewage company harvests 22 hm3 (MCM) water annually for its population of 240,654 people. If the necessary measures are taken for gray and black water purification, Boroujerdʼs daily city sewage that is 35416/6 m3 daily, can return to the water cycle. The city's total wastewater is 12,750,000 m3 per year and it is possible to prevent underground water harvesting with purification. Rainfall is another important resource never utilized in Boroujerd. The gable roof and those with more than 15 degrees gradient can be used to collect the rainwater in the high rainfall season. The total roofs are 136.13 ha and according to the average rainfall 0/454m, it can be the maximum use of this resource. The annual volume of precipitation for this city is 612612/45m3 which is significant. Supposedly, it could provide 3.6% of fresh water. Also, if the volume of sewage is considered for purification, the amount of available water source reaches 13362612/45m3 which can meet 60/74% of current water demand.

 Rainwater is not used as a natural resource in Borujerd city and flows into seasonal rivers as runoff. It can be said that harvesting rainwater is an opportunity to reduce water shortage in the future. Rainwater system transferred through the water pipelines and sewage system. It is possible to store rainfall and water remained after snow melts for dry seasons and its surplus can be used to supply. Also due to climate changes and agriculture in Borujerd city, a plan should be provided to reduce the use of water in the summer which is expected to be implemented shortly.

Rainfall-runoff process is one of the most important and complex phenomena in the hydrological cycle. Therefore, in its modeling, different perspectives for the development and improvement of predictive models have been presented. In this study, while introducing a combination of wavelet-group classification of data, its effectiveness for modeling the rainfall-run-off process in the Ghara-eos watershed was studied. At first, the rainfall and runoff time series were decomposed using a wavelet transform to several sub-basins to overcome its non-state. Then, these time subcircuits are considered as inputs of the grouped data collection method for predicting daily runoff. The efficiency of the combined model with DC and root mean square error (RMSE) were evaluated. The results of the validation of the models indicate that the highest amount of explanation coefficient and the lowest root mean of error for the single GMDH model were 0.65 and 0.07, respectively, and for the combined model of grouping the wavelet data The order is 0.91 and 0.05. The reason for the hybrid model's superiority to the single model is that the combination model of the grouping of wavelet data, instead of using the time series of rainfall and runoff data on a general scale, uses several time- Different decompositions are used as inputs in the model. Also, the results showed that the Wavelet-GMDH combination model compared to other composite models such as Waveline Artificial Neural Network (WANN) due to the GMDH model layer function, which includes binary combinations of input variables, and by selecting the number of optimal neurons in Each layer directs motion to the predicted data, has more efficiency and accuracy.

The importance of environment protection has caused different countries benefit from renewable and clean sources to generate electricity. This has led to the development of hydropower plants around the world. Also, there are different hydroelectric projects in Iran that the Seimareh Dam & Hydropower Plant is amongst them. Since climate change can alter the hydrologic conditions of different areas and the performance of hydraulic structures, this study aims to examine the impacts of this phenomenon on the inflow to the Seimareh Dam.

Climate conditions in the future period (2040 to 2069) are predicted for the study area using HadCM3 model under A2 and B2 scenarios as well as CanESM2 model under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios by the Statistical DownScaling Method (SDSM model). Also, this study uses HEC-HMS hydrologic model to simulate river flow.

The results of the present study show that temperature of the area increases in the future period to different scenarios, in such a way that the highest amount of increase for maximum and minimum temperature in the future period has been predicted for RCP8.5 respectively about 1.2 and 1.3 Centigrade. It is predicted that the mean annual amount of rainfall will reduce as well. Also, the assessment of simulated river flow shows that inflow to the Seimareh Dam will decrease about 5.2 to 13.4 percent in the future period.

The results of the present study show the importance and necessity of considering the climate change impacts in designing important hydraulic structures such as dams and hydropower plants.

Stealing among behavioral and social deviations is almost one of the cases that is considered as an abnormal act in most times and places and is considered a crime. And it is seen as a negative and vicious act that is one of the most ancient human crimes and is seen in different societies in different ways.

The present research is a "questionnaire" in terms of the type of purpose and a questionnaire in terms of the nature of "post-event-causal" and work tools. Necessary statistics and information have been collected by referring to the relevant organizations in a survey. The population and statistical sample of the above research include two spectrums. The first spectrum includes all NAJA personnel in Bushehr who are directly involved in this crime (75 people in total). Another group includes thieves who committed the crime of theft in the protected area of Bushehr in 2016.

Finally, by analyzing the collected data, the relationship and effectiveness of each of the mentioned factors in the research hypotheses were confirmed by the thieves by selecting the crime scene, so it can be inferred that by planning Principles and proper management of the physical environment can be increased by increasing social supervision in secluded areas of the city and reducing population density and activities in dense parts of the city and ultimately prevent theft.

The aim of this study was to investigate the requirements and pathology of the consequences of formal reactions to social deviations.

This research has been done by the method of library studies and in a descriptive-analytical method, which has been obtained and analyzed by referring to Quranic, narrative and scientific texts.

One of the most important and fundamental concerns of officials and families is the fate and future of children and adolescents. There is. Attention to incoming cases to judicial authorities and correctional centers exposes us to the bitter reality that, unfortunately, a significant number of children and adolescents have fallen victim to social deviations.

In the discourse of criminal policy, the criminal phenomenon is divided into two main categories of crime and perversion. In the meantime, the appropriate and accurate response to the deviation should be left to the civil society in order to achieve a positive result through informal means of social control, which is to re-socialize the deviants. Criminal policy, in the best sense, can then achieve its goals by being able to respond to the criminal phenomenon by using appropriate response authorities, and obviously, if the authorities are not used in their original place, they will have to wait for the criminal policy crisis

Droughts affected by climate change are among the most devastating weather events, causing significant damage both in natural resources and in human life. In this study, in order to investigate the effect of climate change on drought, both precipitation and temperature future period (2030-2050) were calculated with CanESM2 model under RCP8.5 scenario in the Douganbodan station in Gachsaran city. Then, drought was evaluated with Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) during the base (1985-2005) and future periods in different time series. Finally, severity and duration variables of drought were analyzed for the calculation of joint probability and return period with the multivariate copula function. The results show that monthly temperature under RCP8.5 scenario has increased by 2.2°C and precipitation has been reduced by 5.5%. Drought evaluation results show that the number of dry and wet periods is reduced by increasing the length of the scale, but the longest period increases. Also, the number of drought periods relative to the base period have increased under the RCP8.5 scenario. The Frank function was selected as the best fitted function with the mean values of the three fitting indicators, RMSE (0.38), NSE (0.9) and AIC (-101.9). The results of analysis of joint return period of a drought event with a severity of 10 and duration of 10 months for the base period and RCP8.5, respectively, were 5 and 4 years, that indicate a decrease in the return period of severe drought and their increase in future under RCP8.5 scenario relative to the base period.

The assessment report fifth of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change shows that global warming has led to a change in the water cycle due to increased greenhouse gas emissions. In the present time, with the increase of industrial activities and the neglected environmental issues, the effects of climate change have become more evident and poses this phenomenon as a global difficult. Increasing the probability of occurrence of extreme climatic events such as flood and increasing the frequency and intensity of the effects of climate change. Due to changes in climate and global warming, the probability of heavy rainfall and consequently the risk of flood due to incorrect drainage system and physical and environmental factors have increased. Therefore, the study of the region's climate is important given the new scenarios and flood frequency analysis with suitable statistical distributions for future planning.

In the present study, the effects of climate changes on the runoff of Azarshahrchay Basin with CanESM2 model under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 release scenarios assessment report fifth (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), with Statistical down scaling model (SDSM), for the period 1976-2005 and 2059-2030 by the hydrologic model SWAT have been investigated. The accuracy of the simulation was evaluated with three indicators: Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Coefficient of Determination (R2) and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). An analysis of the frequency of maximum annual flood for both base and future periods using their probability distribution function (PDF) and the Easyfit model. In this model, 5 types of probability distribution including Normal, Normal Log, Pearson, Log Pearson Type 3 and Weibull were used. The best distribution for each basic and future time series were ranked and selected by using three Chi-square, Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Anderson–Darling tests. In order to study how the maximum flood discharge regime changes in the base and future periods were used two indices: 1) The probability and the return period in the equal flows
 2) Intensity of flow in the equal return periods

The obtained factors of the three RMSE, R2, and NSE indicators showed the good performance of the SDSM model in the down scaling the large-scale data. Investigating the performance of the SDSM model in the downscale of the Azarshahr station's climate data with a Coefficient of Determination and Nash–Sutcliffe of 0.99 and 0.98 for temperature for the period 1990-2001 and 0.86 and 0.83 for precipitation in the period 1976-2005. The simulation results showed a rise in temperature during the period 2030-2059 under scenarios and the highest increase was related to RCP8.5 (0.23°c). Also, rainfall at a station increased by 7.44 percent to RCP2.6 and at another station decrease by 7.57 percent to RCP8.5. The performance analysis of the SWAT model indicates a good accuracy of the model in runoff simulation with R2 and Nash 0.6 on average. The results of the 2.1% increase in runoff and the maximum flood peak and the probability of flood events in March and April (late winter and early spring) have been shown by the SWAT model. Results of the study of the regime of maximum annual flows (frequency and intensity) by fitting probabilistic distributions with the lowest error rate for the base distribution period of the Weibull, future period RCP2.6 distribution Log Pearson Type 3, RCP4.5 Log Normal and RCP8.5 Log Normal as best distribution are selected. Also, the frequency and intensity of flood have increased. In the return periods of constant, the maximum discharge increased, and in maximum discharge constant, with increasing return period (1000 years), the discharge rate significantly increased. So, in the 500-year return period is expected a 98% increase in maximum discharge RCP8.5 future period than base period. The most critical scenario is RCP8.5 scenario.
4- Discussion and

The results indicate the impact of climate change on the basin in the future period. Therefore, knowing the increase in precipitation intensity, the flood risk increases. The occurrence of terrible floods due to climate change have caused many damages in different parts of the world in recent decades. The results of this study, like other previous studies, confirm that climate change is significant, especially with the increasing frequency of floods, governments, organizations, and educational centers need to take appropriate measures to eliminate or reduce the effects of climate change and adaptation to extreme events such as floods.

Since such hydrological factors as precipitation and temperature, affected by climate change, are influential in simulating WEF processes, it is necessary to explore the problem. Currently the most reliable instrument for generating the climatic scenarios of the paired 3D models for the general flow of atmosphere and ocean. This study aims to use the existing water resources for urban sustainable development with a view to climate change. Based on two different scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 for the 5th Evaluation Report by on Intergovernmental committee on climate changes, the output of HADGEM2 model was used and the city of Boroujerd, Iran, was chosen as the pilot location where the WEF Nexus approach has been adopted. The findings indicate that there will be a 1.5-3C˚ increase in temperature in the next period. Furthermore, in RCP2.6 scenario, it will experience as much as 20mm increase in precipitation and in RCP8.5 it will decrease by 40mm. The results from WEF model suggest that a centralized agricultural system accounts for 21.29% of the local demand for fruits and 272% of the local demand for vegetables while rainwater harvesting is responsible for 3.6% of the demand for fresh water resources. The water demand for urban irrigation purposes is supplied with urban sewage cycle and reconsumption. Biogas production and power generation from urban waste can daily supply 1.08% of the current electricity. This means that the cost of sewage management might be lower than that of renovation and new operation in urban sewage.

The connections (Nexus) among Water, Food and Energy respresent a number of interdisciplinurt and multi-sectoral complexities and challenges. These complexities are not limited merely to one sector and one or more other sectors are affected by the shocks to one of these resources.

These resources are shaped by climate change; there fore, given the complexities between them, decisions will be required to be made. There are barriers to making decisions, in the future, on the climate shocks, thus these shocks have to be identified and prioritized so that appropriate decisions are made.

The relational approach promoters our understanding of the mutual interdependencies among the three sectors noted above. The policies in other areas of concern including biodiversity and climate conditions are also affected by such perspective. A questionnaire was desingned based onthe fuzzy AHP method and made available to the experts.

The results suggest that water resource is put in the first priority with the normal weight of 0.591, food with the normal weight of 0.304, and energy with the normal weight of 0.105 are in the second and third priority respectively. Furthermore, a new approach to the integrated management of sustainable development is recognized as the most important barrier to making decisions on the measures of water, food and energy with the normal weights of0.256, 0.261 & 0.292. The last important barriers are identified as cooperation and communication, the nature of response to communicational shocks, and cooperation and communication with the normal weights of 0.069, 0.087 and 0.071, respectivelly. With respect to the final prioritization, the new approach to the integrated management of sustainable development and the measure of cooperation and communication are acknowledged as the most and least important barriers, respectively, with the normal weights of 0.292 and 0.071.

In the present time, with the increase of industrial activities and the neglected environmental issues, the effects of climate change have become more evident and poses this phenomenon as a global difficult. Increasing the probability of occurrence of extreme climatic events such as flood and increasing the frequency and intensity of the effects of climate change. The northwest of the country is one of the most vulnerable areas of the country due to its semi-arid and mountainous climates and high rainfall variability. Therefore, zoning due to climate change is essential. Therefore, in this study, in order to investigate the risk of flood in the Azarshahr basin, due to climate change, using the CanESM2 general circulation model under RCP8.5 scenarios negativity according to the assessment report fifth IPCC, rainfall and temperature variables were down scaling by Statistical down scaling model (SDSM). Then,with hydrological model SWAT the daily runoff, the basin map and the lines of the canals are achieved. The results of the evaluation of the SDSM model with a coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliff 0.95 on average represent the good performance of the model in the down scaling of large scale data. The results show an increase of 0.23 ° C and 4.53% rainfall and maximum discharge. The basin is zoned with the combination of the maximum mean discharge map, the coefficient and distance from the river with the AHP approach. Due to the zoning they are 41.55% of the area of the basin, at very low and low risk, 27.23% at average risk and 31.2% at high and very high risk. Also, with the final map, it became clear that the mid-basin had a high risk due to its prerequisite conditions and that it needed to carry out managerial actions.

The equations governing transient open-channel flow are continuity and momentum equations that are known as Saint-Venant equation. Based on the simplifications of this equation, numerical models of flood routing are categorized. Flood routing models include: dynamic wave models, kinematic models, hydrological Knox model and Maskingham model. In this research, basics of Saint-Venant equation and numerical dynamic wave model, kinematic, Knox and Maskingham models will be explained. Also their results are compared. Also their results are compared. For this purpose, an interval of Bastanak River between Badamak and Khanimen Hydrology stations is studied and a new mathematical relationship for prediction of maximum flood flow rate, river flood plain and maximum width of flood flow is presented. MIKE11 dynamic wave model was solved by partial differential methods and showed a better result with respect to other models. Routing and mathematical zoning of flood using hydrological Maskingham method showed minimum error compared to numerical MIKE11 method and observed flood when min square method used to calculate error.