محمود احمدپور

Due to the importance of climate change on agricultural production and the dependence of yield on rainfall, the purpose of this article is to investigate effect of climatic variables such as temperature, rainfall, fertilizer and onion inputs on saffron yield in cities of Khorasan provinces during the years 1398-1380. For this purpose, using Ricardin model and mixed spatial autoregressive model (SAR), the effect of climate change in three climates: hot and dry, temperate and cold in the mentioned provinces was investigated. The results of the model in three climates showed that the amount of rainfall, fertilizer and onion, contrary to temperature, have a positive and significant effect on saffron yield and the significance of the spatial interruption coefficient of the dependent variable confirms the existence of spatial effects. According to the results of this study, it is necessary to increase the serious events of high temperature and decrease rainfall and reduce the yield of saffron in future periods and the undeniable role of saffron in livelihood, employment and income generation of farmers in the region.

Intertextuality is one of the attitudes in the new literary criticism which speaks of reaction among texts. In this critic trend which is known in Arabic literature as "Tanas", a given text will be studied from the viewpoint of its relationship with the other texts; for, there is no independent individual text but a recall from others. Although this theory has many similarities with the classic rhetoric idioms including: "quotation, implication, literary plagiarism etc.", but contemporary critics differentiate between them. One of important subsets of it is religious intertextuality which is meant as overlap between chosen religious texts such as the Holy Quran, Prophetic Hadith, religious characters, events, and verdicts with the main text. There should be a kind of conformation between the overlapped texts so as to provide the author's aim. In this research which is done with the descriptive method and context analysis technique, we try to analyze the religious intertextuality in the novel of "ʼAmaleqat al-Shamal" by NajeebKilani. The result of this paper is that NajeebKilani utilized Koranic verses and Prophetic Hadith in his novel both directly and indirectly; but he used Koranic tales and the events of Islam's history only indirectly.

the purpose of this study is to investigate the long-term and short-term relationship between the impact of trade liberalization on the import of a number of inputs from the Iranian agricultural sector during the period 2009-2018 using panel data. determine To the fixed and random effects with Hausman test, the test statistic was 37.40, which is quite significant. , in estimating the model, the use of the fixed effects method was more appropriate than the random effects method. To estimate the long-term and short-term relationships of the studied variables, the model of self-explanatory integrated group panel with wide intervals (PMG) and group average (MG) was used.The results of estimating the model of the self-explanatory integrated group average panel with wide intervals and group average indicate that in the long run, the trade liberalization index has a positive effect on the import of agricultural sector inputs. The index of trade liberalization on fertilizer, chemical pesticides and agricultural seeds was calculated as -0.788, 0.17 and 0.043, respectively,

Price stability of agricultural products is related to the stability and development of the agricultural products market. Inflation in Iran, despite the intense fight against it, is increasing at a worrying rate, and has become the most important economic problem in the country. This study investigates the relationship between inflation and expected inflation with price fluctuations of agricultural products in Iran using self-explanatory method and Granger causality test during the period 1991-2019 in the form of quarterly data.The results showed that the inflation rate has a positive and significant effect on price fluctuations of agricultural products during the study period. Expected inflation variable also has a positive and significant effect on price fluctuations in agricultural products. The results of Granger causality test also showed that there is a two-way cause and effect relationship between expected inflation and price fluctuations in agricultural products. There is also a two-way causality relationship between inflation and expected inflation. There is also a one-way causal relationship between inflation and agricultural price fluctuations.

The economic valuation of environmental resources is a step in the direction of controlling and preventing the destruction of places and environmental species. Among environmental resources, forest areas play a very important role in increasing human well-being. On the other hand, forest areas provide products such as fodder and medicinal plants and services such as carbon sequestration, oxygen production, soil and water protection. On the other hand, recreational uses such as walking and mountain climbing are used and they have existential and heritage values. The aim of the current research is to estimate the economic value of recreational services as well as the conservation value and the use value of Birk Forest Park. The necessary information for valuing recreational services has been obtained by completing a two-dimensional double-choice questionnaire online, and the necessary information for consumption values has been obtained by surveying and completing the questionnaire. Probit model has been used to measure people's willingness to pay. Based on the results of the research, about 68% of the surveyed people are willing to pay for the recreational use of the Birak forest area, and the willingness to pay for recreational and conservation use is 8850, respectively. Estimated at 4385 Tomans. The total value of its annual recreational use was estimated at 1397 million Rials. Also, the annual direct and indirect use value of the studied area is equal to 187,247 million rials. The results of the probit model show that the variables of income, education, gender have a positive effect and the variable of age has a negative effect on willingness to pay.

Khorasan Razavi Province suffers from the most critical groundwater resources in Iran, i.e. the groundwater decline has reached 1 m; 34 out of 37 water plains are banned in Khorasan Razavi Province. Recently, Mashhad plain has been fighting with the crisis of drought and water scarcity. Illegal harvesting from groundwater resources and the warming trend caused by change in climate have exacerbated the crisis. Comprehensive water resources management, assuming the complicated nature of water-related issues, rapid growth of population, water requirement for a variety of purposes, and limited water resources, requires novel methods to stack up technical, economic, environmental, social, and logical perspectives in an integrated forum. One of the tools for comprehensive water resources management is utilizing hydro-economic models to simulate the present status of drainage basins and evaluate the impacts of different scenarios and policies. The current study used a hydro-economic model to simulate the hydrological status of Mashhad plain and evaluate the impacts of different scenarios. Then, the agent-based model (ABM) was used in order to reach an agreement with stakeholders on executing different conservation scenarios. The hydro-economic model results revealed that reducing the water demand of the agricultural sector and, as a result, surface and groundwater consumption is possible through following adaptation scenarios. Implementing various adaptation scenarios may alter the present cultivation pattern. Moreover, the ABM results showed a significant difference between the volume of available water, due to the execution of strategies, and water demand, bringing about the lack of farmers’ cooperation regarding the implementation of conservation scenarios. However, through applying some incentive policies, a number of representative farmers may agree to pursue adaptation scenarios.

Agriculture is one of the most important economic sub-sectors of the country, accounting for about 9 percent of GDP, 21 percent of non-oil export value, about 18 percent of employment, and nearly 93 percent of community food and raw material production in many other industries. Also, agricultural and horticultural products account for the bulk of foreign trade in agricultural sector and a large share of the household basket. Thus, issues related to maintaining the production capacity and economic power of this sub-sector can affect economy of the country .In this study, crops and horticultural crops were considered as agricultural crops. According to statistics of the Ministry of Agriculture Jihad and statistical yearbooks of National Statistics Portal, from 2011 to 2016, the area under cultivation of crops and horticulture increased by 367252 hectares there was an increase of  24119617 tonsin production of these crops  and the value added of agricultural sector increased by 1693951 billion Rials in these years. 

In this study, spatial data model was used to study the economic factors affecting agricultural production (crop and horticulture) in Iran provinces during the period 2011-2017. The required information was obtained from the National Statistics Portal, Statistical Yearbooks and Agricultural Statistics of Iran. The spatial scope of this study covers all provinces of Iran and since this study is a regionalone, its main issue will be examined in the form of spatial analysis.Specifying research modelAccording to theoretical foundations and spatial econometric model, the model specified in this study is SAC model.𝑃 𝑖𝑡=α+ρ∑j Wij.Pit +𝛽1𝐶𝐴𝑖𝑡. +𝛽2. 𝐺𝐼𝑁𝐼𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽3. 𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽4. 𝑈𝑅𝑖𝑡+ 𝛽5. 𝑌𝑂𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽6. 𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽7. 𝑉𝐴𝑎𝑔𝑟𝑖𝑖𝑡 + Uit𝑈𝑖𝑡 =λ 𝑊𝑈𝑖𝑡 + 𝜀𝑖𝑡 In this model i: provinces, t: time, α: the width of the origin and β: the coefficients of the explanatory variables (slope coefficients). (P):Production. (CA): Crop cultivation area. (Gini): Gini coefficient. (INF): Inflation Rate. (UR): Urban Rate. (YO): Youth Population Ratio. (GDP): Gross Domestic Product. (VAagri): Value Added Agricultural Sector.The SAC model is selected to estimate this research. 

According to the results of this study, according to SAC model, the impact of economic factors on crop and horticultural production in the provinces of Iran was estimated. Variables from the stipulated model that were significant at 5% level include area of ​​cultivation, inflation rate, youth population ratio, GDP and agricultural value added. In this study, direct and indirect effects of the explanatory variables were estimated. 

The results of general spatial model analysis showed that cultivation area, inflation rate, youth population ratio, GDP and agricultural value added were factors influencing crop production and horticulture in the studied provinces. It was observed that income distribution and urbanization rate were not significant in the model, whilesignificant variables of the model, variables of inflation rate and youth population ratio, area of ​​cultivation, GDP and agricultural added value at 5% level were directly related to production.Therefore it is suggested:1- Considering inflation rate, authorities should implement incentive policies to attract more investors to agriculture sector.. 2. In government support services, farmers’ land features such as the area of ​​cultivation, equipment, and farming equipment should be paid attention. 3. Given that the proportion of young people has a positive and significant effect on the growth of agricultural production, it is suggested to managers and planners of the agricultural sector that more youth should be supported, provided with incentives and incentives so as to improve production. 4.Based on results as the area under cultivation has a significant and direct impact on agricultural production, individuls and authorities are recommended to maintain and exploit farmland reasonably because rehabilitation and enrichment of land which has been cultivated several times and is drained of minerals is costly.

Energy is one of the factors used in most economic activities. The economic security of most countries depends on secure access to energy. Therefore, the production and consumption of energy and its optimal use are of particular importance. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the framework of nonlinear self-regression with extended interruptions (NARDL). We use seasonal data for the period 2002-2018 to investigate the asymmetric relationship between the chosen variables. The results indicate that a positive long-term shock on energy consumption had a positive effect on growth of the agricultural sector. A one percent increase or decrease in energy consumption increases economic growth in the agricultural sector by 0.8539 and 0.9657 percent, respectively. Also, the results of asymmetric causality test between energy consumption and growth of agricultural sector indicate that there is a symmetric causal relationship between energy consumption and growth of the agricultural sector.  There is a positive asymmetric causal relationship between positive energy consumption shocks and agricultural growth, and no asymmetric causal relationship between negative shocks to energy consumption and growth of the agricultural sector. Therefore, policymakers need to attract new capital to build new power plants in the country, so that they can accelerate energy production and ensure the energy needed for agriculture.

 

There is much evidence to show that contracts farming can increase farmers' income. The aim of this paper was to study the preferences of pistachio producers in Abarkouh, Yazd province, to design contract specifications. To this end, contracts can be designed, so that farmers would have more incentives to participate in. Data was collected from 103 pistachio gardens in 2018 by using a questionnaire. In this research, a hierarchical analysis process was used to prioritize contract specifications from the perspective of farmers and discrete choice experiment was used to examine the preferences of farmers towards these characteristics. The results showed that market input uncertainty is more important than market output uncertainty in farmers' decision to participate in agricultural contracts. Farmers also tend to minimize their risk by choosing agricultural firms to conclude a contract in comparison with the government and NGOs' choices and thus receive inputs and technical assistance. Providing incentives for investment can enable agricultural firms to provide attractive contracts for small farmers.

The I.R. Iran has a lot of oil resources of which products are the main sources of fossil fuel in its economic sectors. Using energy sources for achieving economic growth requires countries to consider the economic rationality of fuel consumption and observe environmental considerations about emission of pollutants. Different patterns and models have been proposed for measuring the pollutants size and footprint in the economic sectors. The matrix model of the input - output table has been one of the most effective patterns for measuring the pollutants. This paper presents the results of calculation of pollution resulted from 33 economic activities in Sistan & Baluchestan  province in the form of input-output table and also the ecological footprint of pollutants in trade balance of this province with the outside world. These results show that 372617 tons of virtual gases have been exported to the outside world and 514669 tons of virtual gases have been imported. Therefore, the trade balance of pollutants in the economy of this province with the outside world is negative (142052 tons). This implies that the amount of gases in imported commodities is higher than the exported one. This technique is a management policy for trade of carbon - based products. In this trade policy, we need to export goods produced by the lowest amount of carbon emission and import commodities and goods that high level of carbon emission has been produced for their production.

According to debates and concerns about environmental changes, land use coverage changes have been taken seriously in recent decades. One of the most popular approaches to the simulation is Agent-Based Modelling (ABM). ABM is a set of computational models for simulating the actions and reactions of autonomous agents. The purpose of this research in 2016, is to simulate the status of agricultural land use cover changes in Babolsar over the next 30 years using the mathematical programming based-multi agent system (MP-MAS). The results showed that rain fed products would eliminate from the cultivation pattern of the region, and the development of mechanized Rice cultivation will occur. The area under cultivation of the horticultural products of the region will grow from 3,959 hectares to over 5585 hectares. The results will help managers with a strategic insight at the future of agricultural land use cover changes as they can simulate feedback on their policies and economic decisions.

In spite of the ever-increasing number of venture capitals (VCs), the volume of projects and investments, both in terms of number and amount, indicates the lack of formation and continuity of this type of investment in Iran. Therefore, it is argued that “what is the pattern of VC investment formation in Iran? In order to achieve the designated model, this research is fundamental method in terms of purpose, and has used qualitative approach (based on systematic data collection) and the strategy of the qualitative grounded theory research method. Data collection was conducted during deep and semi-structured interviews with 13 founders of VC firms, target entrepreneurs as well as policy makers with characteristics of having at least 3 years of activity in education and policymaking or having experience in executive activities in financing through VC investing or accepting vc invests. The snowball sampling method was used in this study. Findings show that the main issue that leads to the sustainability of continuation of efficient life cycle of vc investment, is the tendency to maximize the interests of the stakeholders. Since informal institutions have an impact on the formation of vc investing, one can use strategies in order to develop formal institutions and establish a sustainable co-construction between the public and private sectors, which is influenced by the environmental factors and the phenomenon of diffusion and can result in the continuation of efficient life cycle of vc investment. The storyline is based on this.

In order to study the effect of various groundwater resource management policies on sugar beet cultivation area in Khorasan Razavi province, a positive mathematical programming model was used. The studied areas included Mashhad, Neyshabur, Sabzevar, Torbat-Jam and Torbat-e-Heidariyeh. Required information was obtained by completing the questionnaires as well as information banks and publications of Jihad-e-Agriculture Organization and Khorasan Razavi Districts Organization. The studied scenarios included increasing the price of water, reducing the discharge of water from wells, and increasing irrigation efficiency in the form of improving irrigation management, as well as developing new irrigation systems which were studied in the form of several sub-scenarios. Results showed that the policy of increasing the price of water not only leads to sharp decrease in the area under sugar beet cultivation but also reduces the farmers’ income. However, the policy of less water withdrawal from agricultural wells showed less reduction. The policy of increasing irrigation efficiency along with controlling the area under cultivation, in addition to preserving groundwater, increased the sugar beet cultivation area and farmers’ income.

The aim of this study was to investigate of energy technology gap ratio of main crops in Sari city in 2016. The energy technical efficiency and energy technology gap ratio indices were computed using three approaches; group frontier stochastic production function, pooled frontier stochastic production function and the metafrontier function. Data were collected from Agriculture Jihad Organization of Mazandaran. The results showed that in case of filling the gap between other units and units of efficient products, whit no change in technologies the average amount of energy production for soybeans, canola, alfalfa, barley, wheat and rice could be 19, 23, 35, 33, 39 and 28 percent increase. The results also showed that highest energy technology gaps ratio for the products studied was related to soybean (0.81) and canola (0.67). Thus it is suggested that researchers and policymakers should be more attention about environmental goals, especially ETGR to sustainable use of energy consumption to at least one of the goals in optimization of cropping pattern.

Leading companies are increasingly looking for solutions strategy to maintain a competitive advantage against commoditization, low growth and declining profitability in pure products market. Many companies have recognized the need to provide solutions (integrated customized products and services to satisfy customers), only a few have been able to successfully implement the process and achieve the expected results. A lot of researches have been conducted to identify the challenges and key factors to success in this process. The lack of a process model with these characteristics is the major disappointment for solutions researches. The aim of this study is to present a model to provide a solution in parent company level, using qualitative approach and grounded theory method. The resulting model consists of four phases of “standard products", "standard products providing standard services", "customized products with customized services" and "the provision of integrated customized goods and services". Organizations must change "their resources and capabilities", "goods and services", "process" and finally "strategy and orientations" to be considered as a solution provider

One of the ways to identification of land production capacity and appropriate use choice with that is land evaluation performance. For this purpose must first climatic criteria and soil characteristics affecting the production to be identified. Also, considering to diversity and inequality in importance degree of criteria, ranking of them is essential. This research aim to identification, ranking of effective criteria in date production and land suitability evaluation for planting of Date palm cv Kabkob in Bousher province, using analytical hierarchy process (AHP) carried out.
At first, climatic subcriteria and soil physical and chemical characteristics affecting date production were identified by literature review and soil studies in studied area. Then, pairwise comparison matrix was made over analytical hierarchy process and the relative importance degree of these subcriteria was determined by excellent experts. In the weight calculation step, the approximation method was used to produce a relative weight of each of subcriteria. Then this subcriteria, based on their relative weight, ranked. Finally, land suitability evaluation for planting of date palm cv Kabkob in studied area of Bousher province, using AHP approach, carried out.
The result showed that the most important of climatic subcriteria affecting date palm production including to length of dry season, number of days with precipitation index > 5 mm/day in repining period, average daily temperature (°C) at vegetative cycle, flowering and repining stage, heat requirement sum during the period of flowering, fruit formation and repining period, mean RH during the vegetative cycle and fruit formation period, insulation mean (n) and number of months where the wind speed is > 5 m/s during vegetative cycle. Also the result of climatic subcriteria ranking by using AHP approach showed that, temperature mean in flowering stage and numbers of months of year with wind speed mean more than 5 m/s in vegetative cycle stage with relative weights 0.161 and 0.08 have the highest and the lowest importance degree, respectively. The result showed that the most important of soil physical and chemical characteristics affecting date palm production were identified by literature review and soil studies in studied area including to soil texture, calcium carbonate content, gypsum content, acidity, organic carbon, available potassium, soil salinity (EC) and alkalinity (SAR). Base on the result of soil subcriteria ranking, soil salinity (EC) and gypsum content with relative weights 0.27 and 0.041 have the highest and the lowest importance degree, respectively. Also the result of land suitability evaluation showed that 75 percents of studied area in Bousher Provence are very suitable and 25 percents are moderately suitable for planting of date palm cv Kabkob.
According to the results of this research, is recommended for suitable site selection for date palm planting to temperature mean in flowering stage and soil salinity, much attention and importance to be given.

The Khabr National Park is the most important national park that is located in the South East of the country. It benefits from a great deal of animal and plant biodiversity and climate variability that are of great importance for rural recreation. Therefore, the National Park's valuation could explain its importance to the rural people and the tourists inside the park.as well as affect the decisions of the managers. The main aim of this study is to estimate the value of protecting the natural resources of this national park. The Logit model and a dual two-part selection method was used in order to investigate the factors affecting rural people and tourists’ willingness to pay. The data needed for this research study was collected by completing questionnaires and interviews with 228 persons from local people and tourists in 2015. This activity was carried out for three months using the Cochran general formula and random sampling was used. The results showed that factors such as gender, education, previous participation in promotional classes, participation in state institutions, being a local resident and income have a positive and significant effect while age and the proposed amount have a negative and significant effect on local people's willingness to pay (WTP). The per person’s average willingness to pay is about 180 thousand Rials and the per family’s average willingness to pay is about 800 thousand Rials per month. The results show that the rural people and the tourists inside the park and other tourists place a high value on the natural resources. Therefore, it is recommended that politicians and policy-makers pay special attention to these natural resources and invest more on maintaining and improving the quality of these resources.

In the present study, dealing with water deficit challenges for Gorgan River Basin has been considered. Golestan province's economy is dependent on agriculture but the occurrence of drought periods reduced the agricultural production and consequently the region's economy is in crisis. Therefore, performing studies for programming and management of the water resources of the province and the water allocation in the margin of Voshmgir dam in Gorganrood basin has a great deal of importance. The issue of the allocation of water resources is proposed in order to maximize the expected profit of the water system. According to the regional water organization policy, one of the main goals of Voshmgir dam water management is the allocation of water between the competing consumers. If the amount of promised water is released in the future, the expected net profit of the system will be realized and if it is not released, the system will experience losses.
In this studyWater supply is considered stochasticand objective function of the model is to maximize the system (Agriculture, Aquaculture and Environment) profit and optimal allocation of water during the programming period using a two-stage stochastic model as follows: Constraint of the available land: Constraint of the available water in each of the main canals: Constraint of the available water: Constraint of the amount of inflow water
Reservoir capacity constraint
Constraint on the maximum and minimum water demand for environmental sector
Constraint on the maximum and minimum water demand for crops
Constraint on the maximum and minimum water demand for warm-water fish
Constraint on non-negativity of the decision variables in the model
The length of the right main canal of this network is about 17.76 km and the length of the left main canal is about 21.338 km. In this study, is considered for the right main canal and is considered for left main canal. Lands under irrigation network are considered in three regions. Right bank regions and sample farm are covered by the network in the right part of the network and the left bank regions are covered by the network on the left. Thus, there is one region in the left side of the network and there are two regions on the right. The major crops cultivated in the agricultural lands of the network include wheat, barley, canola, cotton, alfalfa, sunflower, rice, cotton-melon, and maize. Due to the random nature of the river flow to the dam, fixed and determined data cannot be used to calculate the volume of water entering the irrigation system, for this reason, using simulation techniques, we can predict the future behavior of the system for each reservoir. The results of the study showed that only agriculturalsector suffers from water deficit and target water demand of the other sectors is supplied and there is no deficit of water for these sectors and target water demand, lack of water and the final allocation of water in the agricultural sector are declined under different efficiencies of irrigation. If other sectors are remained unchanged and irrigation efficiency did not affect them, it is because irrigation efficiency has a direct impact on the water use in agriculture and decreases by increasing the efficiency of the allocated water to this sector and the amount of water stored in the reservoir for the coming year is added. By increasing the efficiency of irrigation which has a direct impact on water use in agriculture sector, the amount of water deficit reduced as a result of the increased system profit.
The results showed that there is no water deficit for aquaculture and environmental sectors in the scenarios of dry, wet and normal years and the target water demand of these sectors is supplied. However, the amount of water deficit in agricultural sector in dry year with the probability of 18% and under the efficiencies of 37, 45 and 51 percent would be 40.98, 23.67 and 14.07, respectively. With the increase in efficiency, water demand in agriculture, water deficit and ultimate allocation of water to this sector are decreased and system profit under different efficiencies is increased. Based on the obtained results, highlighting the irrigation efficiency and allocating the minimum water demand of the sectors is recommended.

Water scarcity has become a global issue due to its direct relationship with food security. For this reason, the need for the long-term sustainable use of water necessitates the application of effective strategies. In this regard, strategic programs are utilized in water resource management and agricultural policies in order to increase self-sufficiency, to reduce the food gap, to decrease the cultivation of water based products, to maximize the economic value of water and to guarantee efficient allocation of resources among different activities in most parts of the world. The main objective of this study is to develop a decision support system to achieve the above-mentioned policies and strategies in the ten agricultural and ecological zones in the country according to the amount of virtual water for crop production.
Data and The decision support system seeks to introduce an optimum pattern and to investigate the current status of water resources and determine the food gap and virtual economic value by means of a linear programming model. It intends also to determine the return on investment of crop production in each region. Our goal of this research is to maximize the value of virtual water with respect to land and availability of surface water and groundwater constraints. We also consider socio-economic constraints to ensure minimum and maximum area under cultivation in every region. In order to achieve accurate results, the social value of goods and inputs has been used in the model. In determining the social value of all goods and tradable inputs, prices of the border with a shadow exchange rate are used. Given the importance of addressing the amount of water used to produce goods, the virtual water content of products on maximizing the economic value of water is used in this study. Due to climatic conditions and consequently the performance of production in different regions, we use water requirement to crop yield ratio for every region for calculation of the virtual water content of a product. In this study, water valuation was based on value added inputs, while social values were used as criteria in its calculation. The data are gathered from the database of the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Energy and the relevant agencies in the region. We used the 32.5 Edition of GAMS software to estimate the proposed model.
The results show the amount of water used by farmers to grow major crops in different regions in 1392, was 19 billion cubic meters. Central Zagros with 3.8 billion cubic meters and the Central dry zone with 1.2 billion cubic meters have respectively the largest and smallest water consumption. The results also showed the greatest change and lowest change in economic value of irrigation water related to wet wheat and wet cotton respectively. The regional view, the greatest and the lowest value of water refers respectively to the South Zagros region and the region of Khuzestan. Research results show that the pattern of demand reduces the food gap through increased cultivation of some strategic products. In order to reduce the food gap, one of the most important strategies is the increased cultivation of the wheat crop.
This study provided a cultivating pattern in order to meet two important goals: cutting water consumption and reducing the food gap by increasing the cultivation of strategic crops such as wheat. In fact, by implementing appropriate Logistic policies, the government and politicians can achieve the aforementioned objectives by diversifying the current cultivation pattern in the desired region in compliance with environmental, economic and food security and health security considerations. The economic value of irrigation water and reduction of the area under cultivation is also a consequence of the proposed program. Instead of providing constant value in all regions of a country, providing an optimal cultivation pattern while considering the exact value of virtual water is a better policy. The proposed cropping pattern reduces Food gap and the area of water-based production cultivation and reduces water consumption, which can be used for producing strategic crops. The proposed cropping pattern increases the economic value of water by 20%. Indeed, it suggests that acreage crops such as wheat, pulses, and oil seeds are increased and rice and sugar beet cultivation is decreased. The main objective of the proposed cropping patterns to reduce the food gap and increase the welfare of consumers.

The importance and necessity of regional analysis of cropping pattern could be due to the need of regional balance and present strategies to achieve balance in decision making and allocation of agricultural production resources. The regional planning is a systematic attempt to choose the best available methods in order to achieve a specific goal in a region. Agriculture planning problems are important from both social and economic viewpoints. They involve a complex interaction of nature and economics. Due to the increase of population, there is always a need for more production to meet the ever increasing demand. One way of achieving high productivity is to increase the area under cultivation. Third -world countries like Iran losing land due to population growth. Agricultural planning problems in terms of social, environmental, and economic issues are important. Decision making in agriculture is generally complicated so that farmers are facing very often conflicting objectives. The scope of this paper is to design and implement a multi-objective mathematical programming model for Isfahan province that optimizes the production plan of agricultural regions taking into account the available resources. Application of the proposed model to the case study of the Isfahan province demonstrates the reliability and flexibility of the model.
In the formulation of the proposed model, set restrictions on irrigation water, production inputs (land, fertilizer, and etc.), and economic variables, as well as the minimum and maximum demand, are described. Also, the different objectives of economics (Gross margin maximization of agricultural activities), social (Maximizing the number of labor in agricultural production) and environmental (Minimizing the use of irrigation water and the cost of chemical fertilizers and pesticides) was considered. Fuzzy multi-objective linear programming model was used to solve the proposed model. As study regions, the information of 23 cities located in Isfahan province, Iran by providing questionnaires and statistical data are taken into account. To expand the potential use of the model, the model solution is compared with the existing crop plan of the study regions. Using Access and SQL server database software to manage and initial processing of data and GAMS software to solve the optimization model due to a large number of information, equations and variables used in the proposed model was inevitable. Some parameters also related to the topic of energy such as the total energy produced, the energy produced per hectare, and energy produced per unit of irrigation water are considered.
The cultivation regional planning model for Isfahan province was programmed in GAMS software. The importance of each of the objectives were summarized by Jehad-Keshavarzi organization experts of Isfahan province. The weights are 0.3, 0.05, 0.15, and 0.5 for maximizing gross margin, minimizing the use of irrigation water, maximizing the number of labor, and minimizing the cost of fertilizers and pesticides, respectively. The results showed that the main groups of cereals and for ages were reduced from all optimized models. According to the cropping pattern in the multi-objective programming model, two main groups of cereals and for ages have significantly reduced the crop pattern compared to the current and this reduction was32 and58percent, respectively. MOP model proposed reducing the irrigation water use by 10 percent, increase the gross margin by 24 percent, and increase the production by 10 percent. The total energy produced, the energy produced per hectare, and energy produced per unit of irrigation water reduced in all optimized models.
The objective of this study is to present a cultivation regional planning with the multi-objective model for optimal allocation of land under cultivation and proposes an annual agricultural plan for different crops. The output of our research may become a useful analytical tool for agricultural planners. In this study, we have been able to demonstrate that the multi-objective programming approach is a better technique over a single objective criterion when multiple conflicting objectives are involved. According to the results, the most limiting factor in cultivation regional planning is irrigation water. Also, the proposed model offers a reduction in the area under cultivation. So, using reduced irrigation water availability policies to reduce the total cultivated area is recommended. The reduction of energy produced in all optimized model can be a suitable research topic to add restrictions to the proposed model. Some cities like Najaf-abad (in the main groups of horticultural and pharmaceutical crops), Naein (in the main groups of Industrial crops), and Mobarakeh (in the main groups of kitchen garden) have the potential to expand the area under cultivation and can be adopted appropriate promotional activities in these cases.

Stock shortage is one of the development impasses in developing countries and trough it the agriculture sector has faced with the most limitation. The share of Iran’s agricultural sector from total investments after the Islamic revolution (1979) has been just 5.5 percent. This fact causes low efficiency in Iran’s agriculture sector. For instance per each 1 cubic meter of water in Iran’s agriculture sector, less that 1 kilogram dry food produced and each Iranian farmer achieves less annual income and has less mechanization in comparison with similar countries in Iran’s 1404 perspective document. Therefore, it is clear that increasing investment in agriculture sector, optimize the budget allocation for this sector is mandatory however has not been adequately and scientifically revised until now. Thus, in this research optimum budget allocation of Iran- Khorasan Razavi province agriculture sector was modeled.
In order to model the optimum budget allocation of Khorasan Razavi province’s agriculture sector at first optimum budget allocation between agriculture programs was modeled with compounding three indexes: 1. Analyzing the priorities of Khorasan Razavi province’s agriculture sector experts with the application of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), 2. The average share of agriculture sector programs from 4th country’s development program for Khorasan Razavi province’s agriculture sector, and 3.The average share of agriculture sector programs from 5th country’s development program for Khorasan Razavi province’s agriculture sector. Then, using Delphi technique potential indexes of each program was determined. After that, determined potential indexes were weighted using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and finally, using numerical taxonomy model to optimize allocation of the program’s budget between cities based on two scenarios. Required data, also was gathered from the budget and planning office of Khorasan Razavi’s Jahad Keshavarzi organization during 2006-2015. They were collected through distributed binary comparison questionnaires related to AHP model between Khorasan Razavi’s agricultural experts in 2015 and distributed questionnaires related to Delphi technique between Khorasan Razavi’s agricultural experts in 2015. Indeed, Super decision and Taxonomy software were applied to analyze the gathered data.
Results of budget allocation of Khorasan Razavi province’s agriculture sector using three mentioned indexes showed that between 8 programs, P1 and P6 have the most and least share, respectively. The results of the Delphi technique for determining potential indexes of between cities budget allocation of agriculture sector programs indicated that totally there are 62 indexes. Findings of between cities budget allocation of agriculture sector programs showed that for budget allocation of P1 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Kalat and Davarzan cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. For budget allocation of P2 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Bardaskan and Kalat cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. For budget allocation of P3 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Mashhad and Joghatai cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. For budget allocation of P4 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Jovein and Torghabe Shandiz cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. For budget allocation of P5 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Chenaran and Neishabour cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. For budget allocation of P6 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Mashhad and Khoushab cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. For budget allocation of P7 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Neishabour and Saleh Abad cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. Finally, for budget allocation of P8 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Neishabour and Khoushab cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa.
The study concludes that the agriculture sector budget of Khorasan Razavi Province’s has not been allocated optimally. Therefore, paying attention to this fact that agriculture sector budget allocation which carried out previously between various programs, have been provided different instructions for opposite ideas always caused to challenge between beneficiary groups. This study provided a scientific and comprehensive model for budget allocation of agriculture sector between programs and cities using agriculture experts, and can be suggested to governors and Jahad Keshavarzi organizations to apply the results.

To be safe from the risks of drought and water crisis in the future, it is necessary to follow the guidelines and rules for proper utilization of limit water resources. In this regard, using deficit irrigation strategies creates a balance between water use and the available resources (rivers, groundwater and dams) and also causes the optimization of water use in agriculture. In this study, in order to assess the effects of deficit irrigation on cropping patterns and farmers’ gross profit in Qazvin province, first, agricultural production functions based on three techniques of full irrigation, 5% deficit irrigation and 10% deficit irrigation were estimated. Then, optimal cropping patterns were determined by using a non-linear programming model in Qazvin province. In the end, the effects of deficit irrigation with irrigation water reduction under scenarios of 10%, 20%, 30% and 40% were investigated on cropping pattern and farmer's gross profit simultaneously. Agricultural production functions were estimated by using Ordinary Least Squares method and Eviews software. Also, the non-linear programming model in GAMS software was solved. Results of the estimation of production functions showed that 5% deficit irrigation technique creates a slight decrease in crops yield. But, 10% deficit irrigation technique has negative impact on yield of most crops. The results of non-linear programming model showed that, although simultaneous application of deficit irrigation technique and irrigation water reduction policy reduces the farmer's gross profit, but it helps to maintain the sustainability of groundwater and surface water resources in Qazvin province.

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions and to determine the input sensitivity for wheat the production system in Kermanshah County, Iran. To achieve these objectives, data were collected from120 irrigated wheat farms selected during 2012 using a random sampling method. The sensitivity of the energy inputs was estimated using the marginal physical productivity (MPP) method and partial regression coefficients on wheat yield. The results indicated that the total energy input was 41,921.8 MJ ha-1, of which approximately 38% and 13% were from nitrogen fertilizers and diesel fuel, respectively. Approximately 57% of the total energy inputs used in wheat production was direct energy, while the remaining 43% was indirect. Total emissions of CO2, N2O and CH4 in alfalfa farms were 1248.1, 855.6 and 1.6 kg ha-1, respectively: Hence, total GWP was 266525 kg CO2e ha-1 and 68.1 kg of CO2e kg-1 of wheat grain produced. The econometric assessment results revealed that the energy inputs of human labour, machinery, diesel fuel, chemical fertilizers had a significant influence on yield. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the MPP value for energy inputs was between -2.8 and 11.31. Also, the MPP value for human labour was the highest, followed by machinery, water for irrigation and phosphorous fertilizer energy inputs, respectively. However, the MPP for biocide energy was calculated as -1.97, implying that the use of biocide energy is excessive in wheat production, causing a problem of environmental risk in the region. Direct, indirect, renewable, and non-renewable energy forms had positive impacts on the output level.

The water crisis is usually described as the imbalance between supply and demand when this problem is beyond a physical or hydrological phenomenon. The water crisis is rise out of a big gap in the organizational and economic aspects of the development, allocation, utilization and management of water resources. So to overcome the current deficit water situation it is required to do organizational reforms to update the water institution, in addition to investigate the current status of rights, policies and management of water resources. The main goal of this research was to study the meaning and concept of the water institution and water institutional reforms in different countries. Although this work was a review in view of data collection, but it is practicable. To achieve the objectives, analysis was done with emphasis on definition of water institution and its reforms. Reviewing the experience of countries shows that water institutional reforms have been done to improve water efficiency, effectiveness, sustainability and reduce governmental cost. In addition, equity and justice could be seen in some countries. To increase the required efficiency and security for investment in water resources, there should be transparent and compulsory rules and these rules must be revised over time.

Considering that agricultural sector is the largest consumer of water, presenting integrated management for water resources and formulating effective policies to increase water productivity in this sector is essential. Therefore, using economic modeling, this study simulated the farmers’ responses to irrigation water pricing and rationing policies in Zabol city. To achieve the study purpose, the State Wide Agricultural Production Model and Positive Mathematical Programming were applied. The required data for the years 2010-2011 was collected by completing questionnaires and collecting data sets from the relevant agencies of Zabol city in personal attendance. The results showed that imposing irrigation water pricing and rationing policies in Zabol city leads to a reduction in the total cultivated area by 9/54 and 5/14 percent and a reduction in the water consumption by 6/23 and 7/01 percent, compared to the base year. Ultimately, irrigation water rationing policy, considering frugality of 18/9 million m3 of water, as the appropriate solution for the sustainability of water resources of Zabol city was proposed.