مرضیه اسفندیاری

Abstract The impact of government expenditure on economic growth has always been one of the most important elements in managing a country's affairs towards achieving desirable and sustainable economic growth. Corruption is a common phenomenon in countries with bloated governments. Given the role of natural resources in shaping corruption and rent-seeking behavior, controlling corruption is essential for selected OPEC member countries, as well as the impact of government expenditure on economic growth in these countries. Therefore, the present study aims to examine the role of corruption control in the impact of government expenditure on economic growth for selected OPEC member countries during the period 2002-2022, using annual data and employing the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and the Threshold Model by Hansen (1999). The findings indicate that government expenditure has a nonlinear effect on economic growth, meaning that the research model has a threshold for corruption control at a significant level of 95% with a value of -1.4622. The results show that at lower levels than the threshold variable (CC), government expenditure positively impacts economic growth. However, at higher levels than the threshold variable (CC), government expenditure has a negative impact on economic growth. Considering the magnitude of the corruption control index in selected OPEC member countries and the study results, implementing expansionary fiscal policies by governments is not recommended. Theoretically, these findings support the theory of "grease the wheels.

Despite the abundance of natural resources in OPEC member countries, these countries do not have favorable economic growth. One of the main reasons is that financial markets in these countries are not deep enough. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of natural resource exports on economic growth given the level of financial deepening of OPEC member countries (including Angola, Iran, Indonesia, Ecuador, Qatar, Republic of the Congo, Kuwait, Gabon, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and Algeria). For this mean, composite data and panel threshold regression model in the period 2000-2019 were used. The results show that the threshold value for the financial development variable (internal credit of banks to the private sector) equals 4.19. The effect of the abundance of natural resources (oil) on economic growth through the financial development channel is positive and significant for the first regime where the rate of financial deepening is below the threshold, and for the second regime where the rate of financial deepening is above the threshold is not significant. Also in the threshold model, the coefficients of the impact of population growth and inflation on economic growth are negative and the coefficients of the impact of trade openness and gross investment on economic growth have been positive. It seems that in order to positively affect oil exports on the economic growth of OPEC member countries at high levels of financial development, it is necessary to pay attention to all components of financial development and deepen it.

This paper looks at how default risk shocks in the interbank market affect Iran’s business cycles, using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. We build on the model by Gerali et al. (2010), incorporating characteristics of the Iranian interbank market. The model is estimated using a Bayesian approach based on data from Iran. Our findings show that a drop in oil revenues, whether from falling global oil prices or increased sanctions, puts significant strain on the banking system’s liquidity. This pressure forces banks to rely on short-term liquidity management strategies like "rollovers." As a result, default risk rises and financial instability in the interbank market increases, leading to reduced access to bank credit, lower consumption, and declining production, which deepens the economic recession. The central bank’s open market operations play a key role in cushioning the impact of these shocks and managing liquidity, but they cannot fully restore normal market conditions. Overall, our study underscores the importance of effective risk management in the interbank market for maintaining macroeconomic stability

According to the macroeconomic literature, the effect of various internal and external shocks on macroeconomic variables and then on labor market variables in different exchange regimes are different from each other. Based on this, this study investigates the effect of external shocks including oil revenue shock, foreign inflation shock and exchange rate shock on labor market variables in three types of floating, fixed and managed floating exchange regimes using the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model used included households, firms, the government, monetary policy makers, and the foreign sector. The results of the impulse response functions show that the analysis of the effect of the oil revenue shock on labor market variables shows that the effect of this shock was positive on employment and negative on unemployment. This positive effect is more in the fixed exchange rate system than in the managed floating exchange rate system and in the managed floating exchange rate system more than in the floating exchange rate system. The impact of foreign inflation on employment in both fixed and managed floating exchange rate systems was positive and has led to an increase in employment. But in the floating exchange rate system was negative, and it has reduced employment. Also, the effect of the exchange rate shocks on employment, labor force participation and providing job opportunities in the fixed exchange rate system was positive and has caused an increase in these variables.

The Gini coefficient is the most common index for measuring income inequality. Taxes are considered an important instrument for improving income distribution. Calculating the Gini coefficient based on after-tax income can provide a more accurate picture of income distribution and its impact. Increasing investment also requires saving, which is influenced by income distribution. In this study, the impact of relative redistribution on investment in selected OPEC countries between 2001 and 2021 is examined using a generalized method of moments. According to the findings, the relative redistribution index and income inequality have a negative and significant impact on investment. It can be concluded that taxes and transfer payments as instruments of income distribution can stimulate investment. The relative redistribution of the more equitable can lead to higher investment. Therefore, providing an appropriate measure of income inequality can contribute to a better understanding and formulation of efficient policies for social and economic aspects.

The positive role of financial market development in reducing the effect of natural resources curse on the economic growth of countries is determined when the development of the financial sector in a country can allocate the income from natural resources to development and capital projects and in finally, lead to economic growth. Therefore, in this study, the effect of oil revenue governance on the economic growth of selected OPEC member countries was investigated, with an emphasis on the development of the banking sector, using the PVAR GMM method. For this purpose, the required data was gathered from the Global Financial Development Database (GFDD), World Development Indicators (WDI), International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the database of selected OPEC member countries (Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Venezuela, Nigeria, Algeria, UAE, and Libya) from 2003 to 2022, and STATA software was used to analyze the data. Results showed that the governance indicators of oil revenues and banking sector development indicators have a positive effect on economic growth. Also, oil revenues have had a significant positive effect on economic growth, but with the increase in growth of oil revenues, economic growth has decreased, indicating the existence of a curse of natural resources or Dutch disease in the countries under study. Finally, the indicators of banking sector development strengthen the positive effect of governance indicators of oil revenues on economic growth and thus reduce the negative effects of natural resources curse in mentioned countries.

In recent decades, entrepreneurship has been raised as a panacea for the economic growth and development of countries in economic debates, and it has been recommended to pay attention to it in the economic policies of governments. The entrepreneurship component is a type of indicator influencing the economic growth of countries that economic policymakers have paid attention to in the past decade. In the past few decades, economic growth and development has been one of the most important issues of countries, because the rate of economic growth is one of the most important factors that are considered in evaluating the performance of economic policies of different countries. In other words, it can be said that countries with higher economic growth have more effective economic policies than countries with lower growth. When critical conditions occur in the economy of countries, the attention of policymakers is focused on the components and tools that can have positive effects on economic growth. The importance of entrepreneurship in the economy and its effects on the economic growth of countries is one of the essential issues. It should be noted that the adoption of monetary, financial, income and foreign exchange policies by governments and how these policies are implemented can have significant positive or negative effects on the performance of entrepreneurs and small and medium business owners; In other words, it should be said that although the effects of entrepreneurship on the economic growth of different countries have been investigated in several studies, the variable of entrepreneurship is also affected by macroeconomic policies. The business environment of each country can be analyzed through different indicators. Despite the strengths and weaknesses of each of the indicators of the business environment, it should not be neglected that these indicators are important from several dimensions. The main question that this study seeks to answer is: Will the uncertainty of monetary, financial, income and currency policies affect the amount of entrepreneurship in the economy? In this study, the fuzzy possibility regression model was used. This model obtains the most favorable regression equation by minimizing the degree of fuzziness. To achieve a good fit, an optimal model should be estimated. Considering that the membership functions used to display fuzzy numbers are triangular, fuzzy regression can be formulated in the form of a linear programming problem. Fuzzy regression models were first presented by Tanaka et al. in (1982). These models obtain the best regression equation by minimizing the degree of fuzziness. This is done by minimizing the total width of the membership functions of the fuzzy coefficients of the regression equation. According to what was said, in most of the issues related to entrepreneurship, the impact of the uncertainty of economic variables has not been examined. In this study, in order to model and examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the entrepreneurship index, the fuzzy regression model has been used. For this purpose, liquidity variables, government expenditures, exchange rate margin, and minimum wage have been considered as uncertainty in monetary, financial, foreign exchange, and income policies, respectively. The results of this study are very important in analyzing the uncertainty of economic policies due to the flexibility of fuzzy regression from different aspects. In this study, degrees of membership from 0.1 to 0.9 were used, the closer we get to the degree of membership of 0.9, it indicates the reduction of uncertainty in economic policies. Also, the right and left widths were estimated using fuzzy range values. By calculating the mentioned widths, the impact of uncertainty in economic policies was investigated. The remarkable point related to the results in this study is that the growth of entrepreneurship in the country has a special potential capacity in such a way that with the reduction of uncertainty in economic policies, the growth of entrepreneurship will increase greatly. Several studies using econometric methods, including classical regression, have investigated the factors affecting the entrepreneurship index. However, in this study, the fuzzy regression model was introduced and its ability to investigate the uncertainty of economic policies on entrepreneurship was considered. Because econometric models need complete and definite information for specification due to structural reasons, while the factors affecting entrepreneurship are fluctuating. Therefore, considering the inevitability and uncertainty of economic variables, we need a precise modeling. Fuzzy regression model has great explanatory power due to its high flexibility compared to classical regression by estimating the right and left width of the entrepreneurship index. One of the important features of this study is the estimation of the right and left width of the entrepreneurship index, through this width, it is possible to determine the effectiveness of the entrepreneurship index from uncertainty, or in other words, the fluctuation of economic variables. According to the characteristics of fuzzy regression, values of centers and fuzzy width were calculated. The results of the fuzzy width of monetary policies compared to other policies show that the entrepreneurship index increases strongly with the decrease of uncertainty. Examining the results of the values of the fuzzy centers shows that financial policies have a constant effect on entrepreneurship at all levels of membership. This issue is very worthy of consideration, since the structure of the government's financial policies and budget should be revised and efforts should be made to focus the government's investments on the sectors of the economy that can be exploited more quickly and require less capital. they do. The values of the fuzzy width of currency and income policies also show that with the increase in the degree of membership, which indicates the reduction of the uncertainty effect of the said policy, they have a significant effect on increasing entrepreneurship. In other words, economic instability and exchange rate fluctuations that practically companies and business owners cannot start entrepreneurial activities and new investments. The general conclusion of this study shows that the role of the government in entrepreneurship through policy making in the economy is very important.

In the oil market, the price of oil depends on the international supply and demand of oil. In general, the factors affecting the price of oil can be divided into two main groups: fundamental factors and non-fundamental factors. Oil has both physical and commodity aspects as well as assets. Changes in fundamental and non-fundamental factors lead to changes in oil prices. Supply and demand are among the fundamental factors and risks and uncertainties, psychological, political, and geopolitical factors, stock exchange and speculation activities in oil financial markets, etc., which cause sudden changes in oil prices are among the non-fundamental factors. One of the signs of the existence of uncertainty in an economic system is high fluctuation in economic variables. The interaction between oil performance and macroeconomics has long attracted attention in the economic literature. Attention to this issue dates back to the 1970s. The 1970s and early 1980s were marked by sharp jumps in oil prices. Adverse oil supply shocks are often considered the main source of macroeconomic fluctuations and stagflation in that period (Blinder & Rudd, 2008).The present study differs from other studies in two ways compared to other studies. In internal studies, uncertainty related to variables is mainly measured through the conditional heterogeneous variance pattern. The data is an indicator of uncertainty in this study based on the method of Baker et al. (2016) and based on the media. When analyzing economic phenomena in a regression framework, economic theory seldom provides distinct information about the functional form of the relationship between the dependent variable and its independent variables. The simple properties of regression functions – such as models that are linear in parameters – are widely used in experimental applications, as they facilitate both econometric estimation and the economic interpretation of estimated regression parameters. However, the assumption about the functional form of the regression function leads to an error of incorrect parameter specification, which can lead to incorrect economic results and recommendations. In recent years, the rapidly growing literature on nonparametric econometric methods has been a solution to the problems of parametric specification error in econometric regression models. Nonparametric regression methods do not require the researcher to assume and determine a functional form for the relationship between explanatory variables and dependent variables. Thus, the functional form is determined by the data instead of the researcher making arbitrary decisions. In this aspect, the present study is different from other studies. Therefore, in the present study, considering the role and importance of OPEC in the oil supply and demand and oil prices and its effect on the growth and production of wealth in the world, factors affecting the determination of OPEC oil prices with emphasis on economic policy uncertainty as a representative of non-fundamental factors affecting oil prices, are investigated for a selection of OPEC member countries from 2003-2017 using non-parametric regression.

The methodology must be clearly stated and described in sufficient detail or with sufficient references. The author should concisely summarize the research framework, and the research methods applied in the study. The summary should include the identification of valid data sources used in the research.The statistical population in this study is OPEC member countries and the data consist of 6 cross sections between the years 2003-2017. The data were extracted from World Bank reports, the OPEC Database[1], the Economic Policy Uncertainty Database[2], the World Bank Database[3], and the OECD website[4].The variables of the OPEC real oil price model are dependent and independent including uncertainty of economic policy, industry value added index, real interest rate index, oil rents, renewable energy, and oil price expectations.                                                                 

 By using the kernel regression: local linear estimator, the extent and direction of the effect of global economic policy uncertainty on oil prices is estimated. The table of meanings of the studied variables is given in Appendix One. The results show that the alternative energy index and the interest rate index are fixed with a durable interruption. Also, according to the diagram shown in Appendix 2, in most of the countries studied, the value-added index of the industrial sector, affects the real price of oil by interruption.
In this section, using the findings of kernel regression: local linear estimator in Stata software, the research hypotheses are examined as follows:Uncertainty in global economic policy has a positive and significant effect on oil prices.
Among the influential factors in oil prices, economic policy uncertainty has the greatest effect.

In the past decade, there have been many debates about globalization and its effects on economic, political and social aspects. In this regard, different countries have tried to lead to integration through trade agreements. These trade agreements have affected the structure of countries. On the other hand, the wage gap and wage inequality have created many challenges. Therefore, the paper assesses the impact of trade liberalization on the labour market by focusing on skill wage premiums. The paper tests these effects by developing a monopolistic competition model with two factors of production characterized by their skill levels (skilled and unskilled labour). The paper finds that tariff level reductions cause a moderate increase in the wage gap. Thus, our analysis shows that a 10% decrease in tariffs is accompanied by a 16.1 % increase in the skill premium. Also, the same level of tariff cut will on average increase the gender wage gap by 26.8%. The study implies that trade liberalization tends to benefit more workers in the skilled labour market compared to workers in the unskilled labour market.

In this study the impact of oil revenue governance on the economic growth of selected OPEC member countries with an emphasis on the development of the stock market, using the PVAR GMM method was investigated. For this purpose, the required data related to the research variables was gathered from Global Financial Development Database (GFDD), World Development Indicators (WDI), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the database of selected OPEC member countries (Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Venezuela, Nigeria, Algeria, United Arab Emirates and Libya) during 2003-2022 and STATA software was used for data analysis. The results showed that the governance indicators of oil revenues, or in other words, the share of public sector investment from oil revenues and the share of private sector investment from oil revenues, have a positive and significant effect on economic growth in the studied countries. Also, the development indicators of the stock market have positive and significant effect on the economic growth in the studied countries. In addition, the mutual effect of the share of public and private sectors investment from oil revenues and stock market development indicators strengthens the effect of the share of public and private sector investment from oil revenues on economic growth. Finally, oil revenues have a significant positive effect on the economic growth of considered countries, but with the increase in the rate of oil revenues, the economic growth of considered countries will decrease, which indicate the existence of the curse of natural resources or the Dutch disease in studied countries.

It can be acknowledged that needlework represents the authenticity of the Baloch people, the most well-known and important art of the people of Baluchistan. This beautiful art is sewn in different cities of Sistan and Baluchistan province by the hands of Sistani and Baloch women, but the selection of Iranshahr city as the national city of needlework has given special importance to Baloch needlework of this city. Problems such as the sewing of Baloch needlework by foreign nationals and the danger of the authenticity of this valuable art, which is referred to as a national heritage, require a special look at this field. It is necessary to try to identify the problems that stand in the way of Baloch needlework in Iranshahr city and present the effective factors for increasing the employment of Baloch women in this city.  What has been considered as the goal of this research is the study of factors affecting the employment of Baloch women in the field of needlework and its effect on the advancement of the region's economy. The required information of the research, which was conducted by descriptive-analytical method, was collected through library and field studies, and the questionnaire tool was also used. The statistical sample of the research is made up of needlewomen from Iranshahr city. After analyzing the obtained data, among the factors affecting the increase of employment of Baloch women in the field of needlework in Iranshahr city and as a result the economic advancement of the region, factors such as allocating fixed salaries to active needlewomen, Attracting the help of investors and setting up the supply chain of raw materials in Sistan and Baluchistan province and as a result reducing the production costs of needlework products and increasing employment in the province, guaranteeing the purchase of needlework products at a fair price , improvement of internet coverage in the villages of Iranshahr and so on.

Given the dependence of the country's economy on banks as the most important source of financing for companies, it is important to study the factors affecting the performance of the banking system; Therefore, in this study, the effect of exchange rate shocks, crude oil prices, total stock index and government budget on the performance (profitability) of the country's banking system in the form of 12 scenarios based on the profitability response of the banking network to 2%, 5% and 10 Shock% was addressed in the mentioned variables. For this purpose, research data were collected from the SAM matrix of the Majles Research Center in 2011 and the data-output table of the Central Bank in 2016. Also, the dynamic recursive dynamic calculus model (RDCGE) and Math Lab software were used to analyze the data. The results showed that the informal exchange rate and crude oil prices have an inverse effect and the total government stock index and budget have a direct effect on the profitability of the banking network; So that if a positive shock of 2%, 5% and 10% is applied to the informal exchange rate, the profitability of the banking network will decrease to a maximum of 1.73, 2.01 and 2.57%, respectively. Also, if a positive shock of 2%, 5% and 10% is applied to the price of crude oil, the profitability of the banking network will decrease to a maximum of 1.41, 1.63 and 2.03%, respectively. In addition, if a positive shock of 2%, 5% and 10% enters the total stock index, the profitability of the banking network will increase to a maximum of 0.47, 0.97 and 1.52%, respectively. Finally, if a positive shock of 2%, 5% and 10% enters the government budget, the profitability of the banking network will increase to a maximum of 0.38, 0.44 and 0.61%, respectively.

The role and importance of the banking system as the primary source of financing for businesses is necessary to investigate the factors affecting the profitability of this sector. Therefore, this research uses a computable general equilibrium model (RDCGE), the effect of exchange rate shock, crude oil price, stock price index, and government budget on Iran's banking system profitability. For this purpose, the social accounting matrix (SAM) of 2011 and the Input-Output table of 2016 were used to analyze the twelve design scenarios and the profitability of the banking system in response to shocks 2, 5, and 10 percent in the exchange rate, crude oil price, stock price index, and government budget are evaluated. The findings reveal that the exchange rate and crude oil prices negatively affect banking system profitability, while the total stock price index and government budget have positive effects. The funding comparison shows that in different scenarios, the shocks of the exchange rate, oil price, stock market, and government budget, respectively have the most effect on bank profitability. thus , appropriate use of the national development fund and government support for the stock market are effective for reducing exchange rate shock and crude oil prices and controlling the consequences of these shocks .

Investigating the effect of oil price uncertainty on the consumer price index of countries dependent on oil revenues is of great importance. Oil revenues in oil exporting countries are among the most important and influential factors in macroeconomic variables. As the risk increases due to oil price uncertainty, the government budget is affected and this leads to the consumer price index being affected. The present study examines the effect of oil price uncertainty on the consumer price index using the quantile regression econometric model based on wavelet transformation during the period from April 2011 to April 2021 in Iran. The results of the empirical model estimation showed that the relationship between oil price uncertainty and consumer price index is inverse. In other words, with the increase of uncertainty in the price of oil, the consumer price index will decrease, and this effect is greater in the final digits than in the initial digits. Also, according to the estimation results of the wavelet transformation model, the negative effect of oil price uncertainty on the consumer price index is greater in the long term than in the short term.

The present study, by examining the rural-urban migration theories, using the Generalized Method of Moments approach and using provincial data from 2006-2016, investigated the effects of rural income distribution on immigration. The variables used in this study include the Gini coefficient, literacy rate, number of health homes, per capita GDP, agricultural sector's value-added, and Dummy variable (for the payment of subsidies).
The Generalized Method of the Moment Approach was used for this purpose. To verify the Cross-Sectional Dependence and Pesaran (2004) CD Test and CADF test were used. Also, to investigate co-integration, the Westerlund test was used.
The research findings show that the relation between the Gini coefficient and migration is positive, so with a percentage increase in the Gini coefficient, migration from the village to the city will increase by 0.46%. Also, per capita GDP, education, and health in rural areas have decreased immigration. As a percentage increase in per capita GDP, literacy rates, and the number of health homes, we will see a decrease of 0.13%, 0.002%, and 0.05% in immigration, respectively. The relationship between the value added of the agricultural sector and migration is positive, and for a one percent increase in the value added of the agricultural sector, the rural-urban migration rate will increase by 0.19 percent.
In order to improve the distribution of income in rural areas, establishing an appropriate structure for coordinating rural and nomadic development, promoting rural development indicators and providing new services, prioritizing rural services based on regional and local conditions, supporting the expansion of industrial agriculture and rural industries in order to create reverse migration (from city to village), they must be prioritized.

fair distribution of income is one of the most important macroeconomic goals of countries. Two different views are presented in relation to the impact of income inequality on economic growth by economic theorists. Many studies have been done in this regard which in some studies income inequality has positive effect on economic growth and others have negative effect. In most studies, the Gini index is used for income inequality which is based on income before tax deduction and forced payment .Since taxes as a tool to improve the income distribution situation, calculation of Gini coefficient based on income after mandatory payment and taxes can create a more accurate picture of income distribution and its consequences .Due to the effect of income redistribution on income inequality , the present study examines the effect of partial redistribution on economic growth by using the Iranian economy during 1978-2018 and using generalized method of moments ( GMM ) .The results of the study show that the relative redistribution has significant effect on economic growth. Based on the results , indirect relationship between economic growth and economic growth is confirmed by relative redistribution index .The results of this study show that taxes and deferred payment are the driving force of economic growth .While on the basis of conventional GINI coefficient , income inequality causes an increase in economic growth .Therefore , providing a proper measure of income inequality will result in more accurate understanding of income inequality and codification of policy making in order to equal income.

The trend of total factor productivity (TFP) and GDP growth per capita in most East Asian countries is upward and in most West Asian countries is downward or fluctuating. In this regard, this study seeks to investigate the reasons for the difference in TFP and consequently economic growth in East and West Asia. This study specifically analyzes the role of human capital, institutional factors, and relative backwardness in the productivity differences between East and West Asian countries for the period 2000-2019. The importance of this issue is that the main economic growth of countries occurs through the channel of total factor productivity and the study of factors affecting productivity can reveal the reasons for the growth of East Asian countries and the backwardness of West Asian countries. In this study, by forming two separate groups from East and West Asia, the model is estimated using the static GMM and the results for these two groups of countries are compared. The findings indicate that human capital, institutional factors, and distance to the technology frontier (DTF) are the most important reasons for the difference in productivity in East and West Asia. In most cases, human capital in East Asian countries has a positive effect on total factor productivity, while in West Asian countries it has no effect. The findings also show that institutional indicators in most cases in East Asian countries increase total factor productivity, while in West Asian countries do not have a significant effect on total factor productivity. A greater distance from the technology frontier (more relative backwardness) in West Asian countries than in East Asian countries leads to a further reduction in total factor productivity.

Since the housing sector has an intricate relationship with other sectors of the economy, fluctuations in the price can be costly. Also, rising prices are either rooted in the underlying conditions of the economy or simply caused by the bubble, leading to different policies. Therefore, house price bubble can be considered as an early warning system to prevent adverse economic consequences. The present paper applies the theory of rational expectation bubble in the Iranian housing market during the years 2006-2020 using the Blanchard and Watson model. The theory implies that negative returns on house prices are less likely to occur if the bubbles exist. The risk assessment is, however, estimated by linear logistic function. The existence of bubble in housing market is confirmed based on 30 provinces.

Human development index is based on aspects of human quality in a country. Human development is affected by many variables. One of the main variables is urbanization. On the one hand, urbanization promotes human development by improving the level of income, educational and health services, and on the other hand, with the rapid growth of urbanization, increasing urban congestion, pollution and greenhouse gas emissions negatively affect it. Since rapid and incomplete urbanization has positive and negative effects on the economy, the purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of urbanization on the human development index during the period 1990-2017 with a multiple regression approach. The results show that the effect of urbanization rate on human development index is symmetric, negative and significant, which has become stronger in the upper quantiles. According to other results of this study, health, education and economic growth expenditures have also had a positive effect and CO2 emissions have also had a significant negative impact on the human development index; the pattern of population growth and migration be considered to changing the laws concerning the creation of new cities in order to adapt the urbanization rate to human development in the cities development plan.

The purpose of this article is to extract the important drivers of export development, to formulate scenarios and to present important strategies for the development of exports in the agricultural sector. The required information was identified in the form of a Delphi questionnaire from the point of view of extraction specialists and drivers affecting export development. These strategies can guide country managers in planning and policy making. For this purpose, the cross-matrix analysis method was used. Among the important drivers, the five most important were: including structural and content strengthening in the field of marketing, packaging based on market tastes, production of export-oriented quality products, establishing strong trade relations with countries, and forming an exporters' union. Using the identified propellants, the scenario space was compiled and three scenarios that were more likely to occur were identified and compiled. Among them, the second scenario was selected with 44% of the most probable scenarios. Diversification of products, production of suitable products in terms of quality according to the demands of the target market, increasing foreign trade is one of the important issues of economic development in any country and is a source of currency for the country.

Islamic banking has attracted much attention in the financial economics literature due to its rapid growth. Islamic banking has emerged as an alternative to the conventional form of banking and has grown rapidly in Muslim and non-Muslim countries over the past three decades. Islamic banks have expanded their bases in more than 60 countries around the world, and Islamic banks are expected to receive a large share of savings in Muslim-majority countries, which play an important role in investing in these countries. Will have. Investment is an important component of macroeconomics and plays an important role in growth and transition from recession. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of interest rates on the investment function in a selection of major countries with Islamic and conventional banking systems during the period 1995-2018 using the data panel method. The results of this study showed that in both groups of the country studied, the effect of per capita income on investment function was positive and significant. According to other results, in the sample Muslim countries, trading and prudent incentives were stronger than the speculative incentive, and it seems that Keynes' theory of investment demand was not necessarily confirmed in the sample Muslim countries studied for the period under review.

Many researchers believe that the rapid growth of shadow banks is one of the main causes of the global financial crisis of 2009-2007. One of the consequences of the expansion of shadow banking is the reduction of the effectiveness of the monetary policy. This article examines this issue using data from 16 G20 member countries during 2018-2002. To do this, two models were specified and estimated by GMM and quantile regression. The results of both models confirm the research hypothesis and show that increasing shadow banking reduces the effectiveness of the monetary policy. The results of the GMM method in the first model Show that the sign of the money growth rate is positive and the sign of the Interaction variable is negative. This reflects the negative impact of shadow banking on the effectiveness of the monetary policy. The results of the Quantile method show that by moving from an economy based on traditional banking to an economy based on shadow banking, the effectiveness of monetary policy is diminishing.

Shadow banking is a term that came out of the financial crisis of 2007-2009. There is a belief that shadow banking was one of the crisis reasons. Because the excessive expansion of shadow banking endangers the financial stability of countries, this paper examines the impact of shadow banking on financial stability using data from 14 countries of the G20 during 2002-2018. We divided countries into four groups according to the level of shadow banking activity; then, we employed the quantile regression method. The results indicated that shadow banking hurts financial stability (positive impact on financial instability) in countries with a high shadow banking index (fourth group countries). One unit of increase in the shadow banking index increases financial instability in the fourth group countries (high shadow banking) by 1.6 units. But in countries where shadow banking is not very strong (other three groups), shadow banking does not significantly affect financial stability.

Recently, the role of industrial structure on regional employment has attracted much attention. One of the branches of these studies, focusing on Jacobs (1960), suggests that more diversity of industrial structure leads to employment and protects the areas against the adverse effects of external shocks. Jacobs's hypothesis has been validated experimentally in many studies. These studies provide a positive relationship between regional economic diversification and employment growth. Following the increasing trend of studies related to economic diversity on employment growth, regional employment models have also been focused on considering spatial dependency. In terms of industry structure, the more diverse areas can be benefited from their externalities, while more diversity within a region improves technical innovations and their impacts. According to Iran's provinces' employment rate, we found a significant regional dispersion between different regions. Although regional employment growth has received more attention from scholars and policymakers than ever before, few empirical studies have been conducted on the relationship between R&D specialization and diversification and regional employment growth. Therefore, this paper aimed to investigate the spatial effects of R&D specialization and diversification on employment growth in the Iranian provinces from 2005 to 2015.

For this study, R&D specialization and diversification in Iran's provinces were first measured, and then the spatial effects of each of these variables on the employment growth of Iranian provinces were estimated using an econometric model. According to Chen& et al. (2015), the Gini index has been used to measure the degree of R&D specialization. Following Ocaner et al. (2018), total diversity is measured by total entropy and related and unrelated diversification.

Given that this study's spatial unit of choice is based on administrative boundaries rather than economic regions, it might be expected that spillovers would exist from the neighboring region. So a full Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) specified, which takes the form of the following: (1)The SDM allows for the observed value of neighboring region employment growth () and other regional characteristics of neighboring regions' employment () to impact a regions’ employment growth rate. The coefficient  shows the impact of employment growth in neighboring regions on the employment growth rate of a particular region or, in other words, the spatially lagged dependent variable. (Ocaner et al., 2018)According to Table 1, the results of the estimation of equation1 showed that employees in the sector of services and relevant or irrelevant specialization and diversification had a significant positive effect on employment growth so that the effect of specialization was more than that of irrelevant diversification and the effect of irrelevant diversification was greater than that of the relevant diversification.

 Conclusions and Suggestions:

The findings of this study supported the Jacobs hypothesis for the Iranian provinces. Also, there was a reverse U-shaped relation between economic specialization and employment growth, indicating that as R&D specialization increased, provincial employment growth increased, but the specialization led to a decrease in employment growth at higher levels. Therefore, as R&D specialization increased, productivity increased, and it was replaced by employment growth. So, the Marshall hypothesis was supported by a range of specialization. For more precise analysis, direct, indirect, and total effects have been calculated. The indirect effect measures the effect of changes in the region j on the dependent variable in region i, which i≠j. The direct effect measures a particular explanatory variable in region i on the dependent variable in region i. The calculation of direct and indirect effects showed that increasing R&D specialization in one region could affect employment growth of the same region; however, it had no significant effect on the adjacent regions' employment growth. Increasing the irrelevant diversification in each region also led to employment growth in the same region, but increasing the relevant diversification in the adjacent regions resulted in a decrease in the host region's employment growth.Increasing the average income of the adjacent regions decreases the host region's growth rate and leads to the host region's employment growth. Thus, the limited influence of entropy related to the growth of provincial employment indicates evidence of transmission mechanisms between regions. Indirect results indicate a significant spatial spillover, and the evidence from estimating direct effect indicates that geography is essential in terms of neighborhood zones. Therefore, in developing programs and policies of increasing employment, it is necessary to pay attention to the potentials of the region and the influence of neighboring areas. It is suggested to deploy industries with more diversity in provinces with lower employment rates. So, creating industrial clusters as a unit for all of the provinces is not a suitable policy. Also, increasing the specialization index by increasing R&D expenditures in areas with a high unemployment rate can increase employment. From this perspective, granting specific and increasing tax credits to the firms in exchange for R&D can be helpful in increasing the employment rate of the province.