مهدی عسلی

This paper examines the response of natural gas prices to crude oil prices in Europe and America. Gas price variations in regional markets mostly follow crude oil prices. Economic variables such as oil and gas prices fluctuate substantially over time. We find that nonlinear models are preferable to linear regression for the study of such fluctuations. The regime switching model provides a flexible and dynamic framework for the study of sudden changes. In this paper, we use the MSVAR approach to study the impact of oil price changes on gas prices during the period of January 1996 to June 2017. This relationship changes with time, during certain periods oil price has a positive effect on gas prices while during other times it has a negative effect. In Europe, the first lag of oil price has a negative effect for 1 month, and positive one for 16 months. During both time periods, the second lag effect of oil prices on gas prices are positive. In the United States, there was a positive effect for the first lag of oil price for 2 months. The second lag of oil price had a positive impact on gas prices for 22 months. The Granger causality test supports the thesis that changes in oil prices are the Granger cause of changes in gas prices.

Currently, National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company is the exclusive distributor of various petroleum products all over Iran. High price of land in large cities and small amounts of revenue creates a waek competitive environment in which private sector is not motivated enough to invest on construction of gas stations, hence this situation leads to a shortage of gas stations in the country. One of the ways to overcome this insufficiency is to use capacities of private sector in the process of petroleum products distribution. In order to deregulate the market for distribution of petroleum products in the country, it is necessary to reform its structure. However, implementing this change should happen gradually and in different stages. Also, in all stages the government should supervise the execution of the task. In this paper, three stages of restructuring the market for petroleum products distribution in the country has been proposed. The first stage is to creat the necessary conditions for establishment of qualified firms which their duty is to receive petroleum products from oil depots and to distribute the products in filling stations. Because petroleum products in Iran have subsidized prices, it is necessary for the government to determine the commission rate paid to private firms entering this field in a way that their activity is economically viable. In this paper, by considering current and capital costs and using economic engineering- feasibility model proposed by United Nations Industrial Development Organization- and with the help of COMFAR III Expert software, we have calculated the commission rate payable to distribution companies for different values of land prices. Calculation results show that if land price considered to be zero, net commission rate payable to private distribution companies for one liter of petroleum product should be 783 IRRs. In conditions in which the distribution company is owner of either out-of-town or center of province, this number should be 808 and 1153 IRRs respectively. This number for a case in which stations are constructed by the distribution companies in combined locations: centers of provices, other cities and out-of-town stations, is calculated to be 956 IRRs.

On 23 January 2012, the Europian :::::union::::: imposed a set of sanctions on Iran’s oil and petrochemical industries. The goal was to isolate them from international markets and also to reduce the government’s income. This study assesses the impact of passing the bill in EU parliament on the market value of petrochemical firms in the short and long runs. We incorporate the method of event studies to compare the price return and the cash flow of the targeted firms (petrochemicals) compared to the control firms (the whole market). The panel data method is also applied in order to measure the average effects. In the short run, we do not observe any significant decline in the targeted firms’ price return. However, in the long run, the cash returns of the targeted firms’ stock price has significantly increased.

Until 2003, function of financial markets was price discovery and hedging. From 2003, oil was introduced as an asset and speculators arrived at financial markets to get profit. Entrance of speculators and attenuation of OPEC position due to the lack of the implementation of some past decisions caused different role for OPEC before and after 2003. In this study, for Evaluation of the effectiveness of OPEC news announcements on the crude oil prices, modification of the dummy variables is used. According to the results, adherence pattern of crude oil prices from the lags is different before and after 2003. As well, announcements of increase and maintain production don’t have significant effects after 2003 while the effectiveness of reduction production after 2003 had more continuity in compare of before 2003.

Iran’s vision statement 1404, maintains that the nation needs to uphold its productivity and innovative spirit in order to enhance the economy’s competitiveness. Having considered the implications of the vision statement 1404 for the country’s sustainable development, in this paper, an attempt is made to measure Iran’s energy efficiency compared to the neighboring countries and some other nations, in the time period 2007-i2012. Using the well-known Data-Envelope Analysis methodology (DEA), we investigate whether the country has succeeded in closing the gap pertaining to the energy efficiency goals determined at the Vision Statement 1404. The study shows, however, in the time period under consideration, energy efficiency in Iran and some neighboring countries, have in fact deteriorated, due to some policy deficiency, particularly universal energy subsidies. The result clearly implies the need for a set of consistent and pro-efficiency energy policies in Iran, endured in the medium and long-run, in order to establish a reasonable path to energy efficiency level envisaged in vision statement 1404.

Several Times a Year, OPEC Hosts Conferences among its Members to Agree on Further Oil Production Policies. OPEC Members’ Decisions Regarding Production Level of Cartel which Result an Increase, Cut or Maintain, Affect the Expectation of Crude Oil Price. Although for Consideration of OPEC’s Decisions in Regression Models Dummy Variables are used, Using Conventional Dummy Variables would only be Useful in Explaining Instant Effect of OPEC News Announcement. This Study Aimed to Access the Full Impact of OPEC News Announcement on Expectation of Crude Oil Price, Using Dummy Variables Modified by 4 Operators. The Results Indicate that Using Modified Dummy Variables in Comparison with Conventional ones, Lead to better Results and more Confirm the Impact of OPEC News Announcement on Expectation of Crude Oil Price.

This paper tries to survey the relationship between national revenue growth with the governments current expenditure, which increases under the effect of the governments transfer payments composed of basic goods subsidies. The paper uses a dynamic two-sector equation that was formulated according to Irans economic structure characteristics. The solution of the model by way of reduced form equations for the important variables of the model such as Y (production), I (investment), and LD (demand for labor force) show that in the hypothesized situation of the economic model, the increase of the GC current budget leads to the decrease in production, investment, and labor demand. As this trend has been continuing during the past three decades, the results of this survey briefly express the necessity of revision in the methods of distributing subsidies and making them target-oriented with the aim of transferring them to low-income households and directing the financial resources of the country to investment. This becomes more crucial when it is viewed form the standpoint of the fourth development plans emphasis on the speedy economic growth and decrease of unemployment.