نرگس نصیری

The purpose of this paper is to specify an early warning system for currency crisis and to investigate the role of capital control together with other warning indicators in the crisis. Increasing mobility of capital and liberalization in international financial flows is one of important dimensions of globalization, which has significant benefits to many countries worldwide. However, due to negative impacts on exchange rates as well as currency crises, financial liberalizations followed by some Latin American and Southeast Asian countries raised concerns in the last decade of the twentieth century. Hence the question: can capital control play a role in preventing or exacerbating the currency crisis? This study evaluates the relationship between capital control index and currency crisis and also examines the role of this variable as a warning indicator. Since the main application of the early warning systems is crisis forecasting, the purpose is to model the early warning indicators of currency crisis using Bayesian averaging method. To achieve this, 70 variables were examined for 60 countries during the period 1975-2019, both in floating and non-floating exchange rate systems. The results showed that capital control has a significant effect on reducing the occurrence of currency crisis, also different capital control indicators do not have the same warning power. In addition, different currency systems are effective in changing the power and rank of warning variables, especially for the use of capital control index.

The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of self-development on job performance of University of Science and Culture employees. The research was an applied research based on goal and in terms of study type was quantitative and from the methodological view, was descriptive-correlational. The statistical population included 110 formal and contract staff of the University of Science and Culture at 2020-2021 that using stratified sampling method with proportional allocation, 86 of them were selected as the sample. To collect data from the two self-developed questionnaires of Abili and Mazari (2014) with a reliability of 0.92 and job performance with a reliability of 0.90, used, which is a combination of two questionnaires of Byrne et al (2005) and Conway (1999) is obtained. Examination of the research model showed that it fits well with the data. The results showed that self-development with a coefficient of 0.41 had an effect on employees' job performance. Also, self-development has had an effect on task performance with a coefficient of 0.30 and on field performance with a coefficient of 0.15. Also, the effect of four components of self-development on job performance was evaluated, which self-regulation and self-leadership with a coefficient of 0.17 and 0.28, respectively, had an effect on job performance. The hypothesis of the effect of self-management and self-directed learning components on job performance was rejected in this study.

Predicting currency fluctuations and crises is an important step in the foreign exchange policy of countries. Given that the purpose of early warning systems or patterns is to anticipate crises, their use is essential to prevent economic crises, including currency crises. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to model and rank the early warning factors of currency crisis by Bayesian averaging method. For this purpose, 70 variables warning of the currency crisis during the period 1970-2018 for the most important trading partners of Iran that have experienced the currency crisis in floating and non-floating currency systems are examined. Selective warning variables include a wide range of macroeconomic variables and financial variables that reflect the state of the economy in the real, monetary, political, public, foreign, institutional, and structural sectors. The results of this study show that the designed system has a high ability to predict currency crises in the period under review and identify the most important warning factors. Overall, the results indicate that considering the currency governance system in the models of currency crisis warning, sometimes different variables are introduced as currency crisis warning; So that changes in foreign exchange market pressure, changes in real effective exchange rates, the ratio of international reserves to foreign debt, real GDP growth and the percentage of foreign direct investment to GDP in the floating exchange rate system and changes in foreign exchange market pressure, Inflation, real effective exchange rate changes, the ratio of international reserves to GDP, and the ratio of exports of goods and services to GDP in the non-floating system are important warning indicators.