هاشم زارع

This paper aims to explain the real-fiscal linkages by identifying the macroeconomic determinants of government revenue in Iran. To achieve this, the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) method was applied using data from 1972 to 2020. The findings indicate that inflation, centralization, the divergence of public prices from market prices, and the concentration of tax collection on labor income tax all have positive effects on government revenue in Iran. In contrast, economic growth and trade openness have negative effects on government revenue. Overall, these findings support implementing an economic growth strategy that is internally comprehensive within the tax system and externally coherent in terms of the economics of growth, and to which the government has a “tight commitment”. “Internally comprehensive” refers to establishing a mature progressive tax system that includes an inflation-adjusted comprehensive income tax along with automatic complete indexation. When complete and explicit automatic indexation is lacking, fiscal authorities may still benefit from inflation, which can lead to persistent political incentives for inflation inertia. “Externally coherent” refers to ensuring that aspects such as openness, decentralization of macro-fiscal decision-making, and the efficient size of government align with the comprehensive tax system to promote economic growth.

Governments pursue macroeconomic objectives such as stabilizing the economy by employing fiscal policy tools. However, fiscal sustainability is obligatory for achieving economic stability. This research, utilizing linear and nonlinear fiscal reaction functions, including quadratic and cubic, time-varying parameter and Markov-switching fiscal regime change functions, measures the fiscal sustainability of the Iranian government and its determinants in the period 1970-2021. Based on the findings of this research, the government debt-to-GDP ratio in linear and nonlinear models is negative and insignificant, but in the model with control variables, it is negative and strongly significant. Hence, the model with control variables results in the unsustainability of Iran's fiscal policy. The results of Markov-switching fiscal regime change model reveals the existence of two fiscal regimes in Iran's fiscal policy. An unsustainable fiscal regime, in which the reaction of the primary budget balance to the public debt is negative and significant, and a sustainable fiscal regime in which the reaction of the primary budget balance to the public debt is positive but insignificant. Also, the results of the Markov-switching fiscal regime change model demonstrates that the average filtered and smoothed transmission probabilities of remaining in unsustainable fiscal regime is higher than that of sustainable fiscal regime, which indicates that Iran's fiscal policy has been unsustainable. Based on the results of the time-varying parameter model, the reaction of the primary budget balance to the debt expansion has been negative and diminishing, therefore, debt reduction has not been the priority of governments in Iran, and as a result, Iran's fiscal policy has been proceeding in the unsustainable direction.

Today, the issue of employment and unemployment is highly problematic and crisis-prone economically, socially, and politically. The lack of adequate employment in a society can challenge social trust in the government and, consequently, its political legitimacy. Terrorism has a negative impact on the economic performance of countries, but the impact varies from country to country. The negative impact of terrorism is very low in high-income countries, but very high in low-income countries. The reason is that rich countries can use their resources to fight terrorism, but low-income countries are poor and do not have institutions that can respond to the negative impact of terrorism.The Middle East is a region of great ethnic and religious diversity. The high share of energy supply, the concentration of regional and extra-regional powers in recent years accounts for a high share of terrorist attacks in the Middle East, which, in addition to human losses, have large and negative impacts on investment, tourism, and economic growth in the Middle Eastern countries. On the other hand, factors such as political risk, socio-political unrest, high levels of corruption, political instability, political uncertainty, oil price, and lack of transparency have led to an increase in terrorist attacks and the effects of sustained terrorist attacks in these countries.

Spatial econometrics adds spatial effects to the power of periodic or mixed (panel) regression models. Thus, in spatial econometrics, sample information has a spatial component. When the data have a spatial component, two issues can be discussed, including spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity.In spatial econometric models, it is necessary to choose the numerical value of spatial directions in order to model spatial responses. For this purpose, we have two sources of assumptions. The first is concerned with the position in the coordinate plane, which is expressed by latitude and longitude and such that the distance of each point in the place or the distance of each observation located at each point can be calculated relative to fixed or central points or observations. The second assumption is that the source of spatial information is neighborhood and proximity, which expresses the relative location in space of a seen peripheral unit compared to other such scales. The degree of proximity and contiguity will be available based on the data obtained from the model of the community under study. According to these data, it can be determined which areas are adjacent to each other. In this case, the scales (areas) that have a neighborhood relationship have a higher degree of connectedness than the units that do not have neighbors. The adjacency matrix contains the elements 0 and 1, where the components on the main diameter are equal to zero and the components outside the main diameter are equal to one if two countries are adjacent to each other, and zero otherwise. Therefore, the objective of the current study is to examine the impact of shocks caused by terrorist activities on employment in the selected countries of the Middle East region during the period 2000-2021 using the spatial econometric model.

The results of the research showed that terrorist activities have a negative and significant impact on the level of employment in the affected countries and lead to a decrease in the level of employment and economic activities there in both direct and indirect ways. The result shows that one of the goals of terrorism is to divert the business environment from normal to critical conditions. Based on other research results, the variable of GDP per capita, inflow of foreign direct investment and trade have positive and significant effect on the level of employment in the selected countries of the Middle East, while the variable of inflation rate has negative effect on the employment there.

Conclusions and policy implications:

 According to the results of the research, in order to control the effectiveness of terrorist activities in the selected countries of the Middle East, the institutional quality, political and economic stability, and the structure of democracy should be enhanced. Therefore, if these conditions are accompanied by the instability of internal politics and low institutional quality, it creates a double effect for increasing terrorist activities. Of course, political instability and the existence of corruption and lack of transparency can contribute to the financing of terrorism too. Therefore, it is recommended that the laws and policies of governments in these countries be more stable and transparent in order to counter the creation of terrorist groups. Moreover, since terrorist shocks impose many economic costs on these countries, the cost of securing the region can be considered as an investment in improving the productive environment. Therefore, increasing the budget to deal with terrorist attacks and their complications, as well as funding regional cooperation to deal with terrorism, can bring significant economic benefits to these countries. Another important policy that is recommended is to provide more guarantees in these countries to protect the interests of investors against terrorist attacks. To this end, government guarantees and legal and economic protections for foreign investments to ensure the stability of their operations can reduce investment uncertainty to some extent. In this regard, even the insurance system of the countries can be activated and support foreign investors against terrorist risks. These joint activities can create common interests in unity and cooperation to fight terrorism. Finally, planning to keep economic and investment areas away from terrorist targets and ensuring the security of foreign investment areas and targets can also reduce foreign investment uncertainty to some extent.

 A balanced government budget plays a decisive role in the stability of the macroeconomics, and the continuous budget deficit puts the stability of the economy at risk. A budget deficit transpires when the expansion in government expenditures exceeds the growth in government revenue. On the other hand, one of the reasons for the government debt enlargement is the continuous budget deficit. Permanent budget deficit has harmful effects on the economy. Therefore, economists recommend that the government should prevent excessive increase in debt by maintaining a sustainable fiscal policy. Fiscal policy is sustainable when the government reacts to the debt swelling by creating an adequate budget surplus. On the contrary, unsustainable fiscal policy causes crises such as suboptimal allocation of resources, failure in financial markets and high inflation rates. Iran's economy has always been struggling with the permanent budget deficit and high debt stocks. The major motive for this is the dependence of the Iranian government's revenues on the sale of crude oil and its products, because with the decrease in oil revenues, the government resorted to borrowing to compensate for its budget deficit, resulting in debt accretion. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the perspective of fiscal sustainability in Iran. The objective of this research is to assess Iran's government fiscal sustainability and its influential factors by employing annual data of Iran's economy from 1971 to 2022 and by utilizing constant parameter fiscal reaction functions including linear and non-linear models, time-varying parameter fiscal reaction function, Markov-switching fiscal regime change model and fiscal reaction function including control variables.

The existing literature about fiscal sustainability in Iran, has mainly examined fiscal sustainability in the framework of constant parameter linear fiscal reaction function. This research assesses different models of fiscal reaction function, such as constant parameter linear and non-linear models, time-varying parameter models and Markov-switching fiscal regime change models regarding Iran's fiscal sustainability. It also evaluates the dominant variables affecting Iran's fiscal sustainability.

In this research, firstly, the Iran's government fiscal sustainability is tested through the constant parameter linear and non-linear fiscal reaction functions, and to identify the variables affecting fiscal sustainability, the model including control variables is utilized. Then the Markov-switching fiscal regime change model and the time-varying parameter fiscal reaction function are estimated. Among the constant parameter linear and non-linear models, only the linear model including control variables has a significant debt-to-GDP ratio coefficient, which its sign is negative. Hence, it indicates that the fiscal policy implemented in Iran is unsustainable. The Markov-Switching fiscal regime change model shows the existence of two fiscal regimes, one unsustainable fiscal rgime where the reaction of the primary budget balance to public debt is significant and negative and one sustainable fiscal regime where the reaction of the primary budget balance to public debt is insignificant and positive. Also, the results show that the expected duration of the unsustainable fiscal regime is longer than the expected duration of the sustainable fiscal regime. The results of the time-varying parameter model show that the trend of the smoothed changes of the time-varying parameter is downward during the time, therefore, Iran's fiscal policy has proceeded in an unsustainable direction.

The results of the model including the control variables and the time-varying parameter model and the Markov-switching fiscal regime change model show that Iran's fiscal policy is unsustainable. Also, on the basis of this research findings, the variables of the output gap, the government revenue to GDP ratio and exchange rate fluctuation have a positive impact, and the variables of the government real cyclical expenditure and the old population ratio have a negative impact on the fiscal sustainability in Iran. Based on the results of this research, the government debt reduction has not been the priority of the governments in Iran. This has caused unsustainable fiscal policy which in turn, made the Iranian economy more and more vulnerable with regard to external shocks. While developing revenue sources and reducing dependence on oil revenues, the government should reduce its borrowing and therefore decrease the public debt and take steps towards sustainable fiscal policy to help achieving economic stability and sustainable growth in the long-term

The purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of using artificial intelligence in reforming the macroeconomic structure of Iran. As an emerging technology, AI can transform the economy by improving production processes, reducing costs, and increasing productivity. This research analyzes the impact of artificial intelligence on macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, inflation, unemployment and investment. The research method is based on quantitative analysis and econometrics, and the data are collected from domestic and international sources, including the Central Bank of Iran and the World Bank. After the data normality test, suitable econometric models were selected and analyzes were performed in EViews7 software. The findings show that artificial intelligence has a positive and significant effect on Iran's economy. Specifically, the coefficient of impact of artificial intelligence on GDP is 0.85 and on unemployment rate -0.60, which indicates an increase in production and a decrease in unemployment, respectively. Also, its effect on inflation is -0.35 and indicates a decrease in inflation. The positive effect of 0.40 on investment indicates the growth of investments. These results confirm that artificial intelligence plays an effective role in improving Iran's economic indicators. In other words, artificial intelligence has significant effects on Iran's macroeconomic indicators. The analysis indicates that the use of artificial intelligence can increase the GDP, so that its coefficient of influence on the GDP is positive and significant. Also, the effect of artificial intelligence on the unemployment rate has also been significant and has led to a decrease in this rate, which indicates the positive role of this technology in creating new jobs and improving the labor market situation. Regarding the inflation rate, the results show that the use of artificial intelligence can lead to a decrease in inflation, which can be justified due to increased productivity and reduced production costs. Finally, the effect of artificial intelligence on investment was also investigated and it was found that this technology can stimulate new investments and increase the amount of investment in the country's economy. The research results confirm that artificial intelligence can be effective in correcting macroeconomic indicators and help Iran's economic growth.

The world has suffered severe environmental degradation in the last two decades. The effects of ecological deviations and environmental destruction are alarming and cause concern for stakeholders and environmentalists. These problems have led to environmental disasters such as extreme weather changes and rising sea levels. For this reason, countries are trying to address environmental crises and economic growth at the same time. Basically, it is believed that the destruction of ecosystems in many countries is the result of human actions, including rapid industrialization, population growth, expansion of economic activities, urbanization, and widespread consumption of fossil fuels. Undoubtedly, one of the main factors of climate change and environmental degradation is the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) caused by economic activities. The relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth has attracted the attention of researchers and policymakers to reduce carbon dioxide emissions without affecting economic growth. Achieving this goal may be difficult, but studies have included various factors in the growth-carbon dioxide relationship, such as different energy sources, technological innovations, population, financial development, urbanization, and trade openness. In addition to the factors mentioned above, there is a need to assess other relevant factors such as human capital for effective policy development. Despite the extensive role of human capital in promoting energy efficiency and economic growth, by skilled workers in the production process and the preference of educated households to use home appliances with high energy efficiency, few researchers have included this factor in the existing literature. Education is considered as one of the most important human capital investments and plays a vital role in the process of economic growth. Education, at the micro level, affects the future income flow of people, and at the macro level, it is thought that a workforce with better education increases the stock of human capital in the economy. Increased human capital in turn can have positive externalities, such as lower crime or improved health outcomes, which are socially desirable and likely to have positive effects on productivity. In fact, it is the existence of such positive externalities that provides economic justification for governments to support education. It is believed that public spending on education and health will lead to improvement of human capital, reduction of poverty, economic growth and development, and reduction of pollution.
Theoretical studies emphasize different mechanisms through which education affects economic growth. (1) Education increases the human capital of the labor force, thereby increasing labor productivity and shifting growth toward a higher equilibrium level of output. (2) In endogenous growth theories, education increases the economy's capacity to innovate new technologies, products, and processes, thereby promoting growth.
In the environmental field, improving human capital can reduce the use of fossil fuel in the production process. The motive of this research is to understand the effect of public education expenditure shocks on economic growth and environmental quality in Iran.

To achieve the goal of the research, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model and Bayesian approach have been used. In this regard, observable variables, gross domestic product, private consumption, investment, government expenditure and the gross growth rate of money have been used in the period of 2004 to 2021.

The results indicate that an increase in public education expenses by one standard deviation increases the marginal efficiency of private education expenses. Because private and public education expenses complement each other and entered the model in the form of a Cobb-Douglas function. Therefore, education hours, investment in education and subsequently, human capital increased. The increase in human capital led to an increase in production, economic growth and a decrease in inflation. The decrease in inflation led to an increase in the real wages of the workforce and finally the desire of the household to increase the supply of labor. Consumption increased in response to an increase in real wages. Also, the behavior of investment is very similar to the behavior of consumption and production, but its changes are more intense than other expenses. Therefore, it can be said that the shock of public education expenses has affected the performance of the economy like an expansionary impulse and has improved the economic conditions. In the environmental sector, with the increase in human capital, economic growth has been improved and this has led to an increase in air pollution and a decrease in environmental quality.

In justifying these results, we can point to the weak institutional quality in Iran, that despite the huge amount of human capital investment, there is no necessary effectiveness in the environmental sector, and this is a confirmation that Iran is in the early stages of economic development. As a policy recommendation, in addition to paying attention to education and its role in the development of human capital as a long-term investment, improving the quality of institutions should be considered

Understanding the relationship between institutions and economic performance, as well as how institutional quality differs across countries, has attracted increasing attention in recent years. Northern countries support economic progress due to having strong institutions. On the other hand, weak institutions in southern countries prevent their progress. Therefore, it is very important for policymakers to identify the factors affecting institutional quality and to understand how institutional quality affects economic growth in order to develop efficient economic policies. The main motivation of the present study is to understand the effect of improving institutional quality on Iran's economic growth through total factor productivity using the Global Trade Analysis Project model. In this regard, the data were aggregated into two regions (Iran and the rest of the world) and ten sectors based on the research objective. To achieve the main objective of the study, two scenarios were evaluated: 1) Increasing the growth rate of production factor productivity in Iran (due to improving institutional quality); 2) Increasing the growth rate of production factor productivity in other regions of the world (due to improving institutional quality). The results show that improving institutional quality through increasing the growth rate of production factor productivity in Iran leads to higher economic growth in Iran and its sub-sectors.

From a macroeconomic perspective, human capital accumulation improves labor productivity, facilitates technological innovation, and increases the return on capital. Also, human capital makes growth more stable, which in turn leads to poverty reduction. In other words, human capital at the macro level is considered as a key production factor in the production function at the economic level. Education expenditure is very crucial for the formation of human capital and as a result economic growth; Because by reducing education costs, it increases the demand for education and plays an important role in increasing its quality. Therefore, the formation of human capital is an important factor for growth. Regardless of the contribution of education in sustainable economic growth, education is a consumer goods that directly contributes to people's welfare. Based on this, the United Nations Development Programme mentions education as one of the key components of human development index. For this reason, governments make significant investments in education. Considering the importance of the role of public education expenditure in the formation of human capital, the main goal of this study is to understand the effect of shocks to the government expenditure in the education sector on Iran's economy. In this regard, according to the characteristics of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models in estimating the effects of shocks on the economy, a DSGE model suitable for the structure of Iran's economy and the Bayesian approach has been used.

In this paper, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is presented and estimated using the Bayesian approach and seasonal data in the period of 2004:4-2021:5. The primary core of the current research is designed based on the Angelopoulos etal (2009) and by expanding this model, the effect of shocks to the government expenditure in the education sector on the Iran's economy has been investigated. In this regard, the studied DSGE model includes households with an unlimited planning horizon, a representative firm producing a homogeneous final product in a perfectly competitive environment, the firms that produce intermediate goods, the government, and the oil sector. There are (j) firms producing intermediate goods that produce heterogeneous good and imperfect substitutes under conditions of monopolistic competition. Intermediate goods are combined with each other by the firm producing the final goods under a Dixit-Stiglitz accumulator and presented to the household as the final goods. In order to estimate model parameters, Bayesian method and Random Walk Metropolis-Hastings algorithm were used. The data of the observable variables of the model include seasonally adjusted data of Gross Domestic Production (GDP), private consumption, investment and the gross growth rate of money; which have been detrended using the Hodrick-Prescott filter.Brooks and Gelman (1998) diagnostic test and Monte Carlo Markov chain show that the parameter estimation is appropriate and reliable. This test shows three parameters, interval, second order moment (m2) and third order moment (m3). After extracting these Markov chains of parameters using Metropolis Hastings algorithm, the degree of accuracy of the chains was tested. According to the results of this test, the intra-chain and inter-chain variance of all parameters have finally converged. Therefore, the Bayesian estimation results have good accuracy.

An increase in public education expenses by one standard deviation has caused an increase in private education expenses. Because private and public education expenses complement each other and entered the model in the form of a Cobb-Douglas function. Therefore, in general, investment in education and subsequently, human capital has increased. Increasing human capital has increased production, economic growth and reduced inflation. The decrease in inflation has led to an increase in the real wages of the workforce and finally the desire of the household to increase the supply of labor. An increase in real wages has led to an increase in consumption. Also, the increase in labor supply has increased the final productivity of physical capital, which is due to the complementarity of labor and capital in the Cobb-Douglas production function. This causes an increase in physical investment. The behavior of investment is very similar to the behavior of consumption and production, but its changes are more intense compared to other expenses; Because investment expenses are naturally more volatile than other expenses. Finally, due to the decrease in inflation, the real exchange rate has decreased. The results of this research are consistent and similar with the results of Angelopoulos et al. (2009), and are not similar to the results of Akbarian and Phamkar's (2009).

As a general result, it can be said that the shocks to the public education expenditure, such as the expansionary policy, have affected the performance of the economy and improved the economic conditions. It is suggested that public education expenditure be explained as a long-term investment in the economy. Also, the training of human resources according to the needs of the labor market should be put on the agenda.

Have nominal and real fiscal drags occurred in Iran’s economy? Answering this question requires estimating the effect of real economic growth and inflation on government tax revenues relative to GDP. Using the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), this paper tests the occurrence of fiscal nominal and real drag/anti-drag in Iran's economy from 1972 to 2020. The results indicate that the effect of growth and inflation on the relative tax revenue has become negative and positive, respectively. This means that both real fiscal anti-drag and nominal fiscal drag have simultaneously occurred in Iran, which documents the implicit practices of over-indexing. Moreover, the more Iran's economy becomes open, the more fiscal affairs become decentralized - especially taxation-, and the more the government becomes compliant with relative market prices in the supply of public goods, the more the drag effect of taxation will significantly reduce. Overall, these findings support the idea of designing a coherent economic growth strategy in conjunction with the establishment of an advanced progressive tax system based on comprehensive income taxation that properly addresses the various dimensions of full-indexation, extroversion, decentralization, tax efficiency, and monetarism - adjustment of prices towards the market prices.

Reduction of unemployment as one of the key indicators of economic evaluation of countries has always been the focus of attention of economists and politicians of countries. In recent decades and with the expansion of the new institutionalism approach, good governance and its components have been considered as one of the important factors affecting the development strategy of countries and unemployment control. Therefore, the main goal of this study is to investigate the effect of good governance on unemployment in selected oil exporting countries. In this regard; The effect of good governance indicators on unemployment in selected OPEC member countries was investigated by using the Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) method. The data used in this research are annual data extracted from reliable scientific organizations and databases for the period from 2002 to 2021. Considering the strong correlation between good governance indicators and in order to prevent problems caused by multiple collinearity, by using the principal component analysis (PCA) method, the main governance components were extracted and the first principal component ( PC〗_1) was included in the model as a proxy for different dimensions of governance. The results of the estimation of the model showed that the first main component of governance has a negative and significant effect on unemployment in this group of countries, which means that improving the governance situation can provide the basis for reducing unemployment in OPEC member countries. Also, the interest rate, as one of the macro variables affecting unemployment entered in the model, has a positive and significant effect on unemployment. 

The present study deals with the design of the puzzle of financial prices regarding the response of inflation to government spending shocks. For this purpose, using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, known as impulse models, uncertainty effects created by the government's current expenditures and construction expenditures and other effective indicators such as Impulses of technology, real wages, and short-term interest rates on inflation were examined. The data of the study was collected from the website of the central bank, and the model is estimated to have been using Eviews software for the years 1987-2020. The findings showed that an impulse from private consumption and government spending increases inflation by 2% and 1%, respectively. The response of inflation to the impetus from the technology area is also close to zero. In other words, introducing the technology variable into the financial puzzle of Iran's economy will cause a slight adjustment in inflation in the short term. The use of the technology variable will disturb the reactions of inflation and consumption to some extent. Still, on the other hand, the use of the technology variable will cause the government's expenses to increase. The response of inflation to the increase in government spending, especially at the lower limit, is an increase. Inflation's response to impulses from the short-term nominal interest rate is from the lower limit up to five periods and the upper limit up to two ascending periods. In the Iranian economy, officials and policymakers do not increase the nominal interest rate in response to the increase in inflation. This factor leads to a decrease in real interest and reduces private economic activity as well as real wages. In general, by looking at the results of the design of the puzzle of financial prices regarding the response of inflation to government spending shocks, it can be seen that in most periods, the response of inflation to government spending shocks is incremental

In developing countries, economic growth is the main concern of policy makers and economic thinkers. Knowing the tools and factors affecting economic growth is essential and requires deeper investigations. The importance of knowing the effective factors in the growth and development of countries in today's growing world is undeniable. The degree of effectiveness and recognition of these factors can be an important step towards accelerating growth and development. Accelerating economic growth is a tendency in developing countries. Economists are looking for an answer to the main question, what are the reasons for the difference in the economic growth of the countries of the world? In examining the factors affecting economic growth, two groups of causes can be mentioned. The first group is related to direct factors such as the accumulation of human and physical capital, and the second group includes final factors such as institutions, social capital, etc. In relation to political factors, the situation of developing countries is slightly different from their situation and performance regarding economic factors, especially, the internal economic structure of countries is very vulnerable to adverse factors. Political instability, as the most important internal factor, has the closest interaction with the concept of economic security in influencing the performance of macroeconomic variables, including production. The insecurities that arise in the atmosphere of political instability and violent behavior (such as terrorist activities) in developing countries cause the country's inability to successfully attract foreign capital, capital flight and reduction of capital. Investments are made. Among the indicators of political instability, which has been raised as one of the sensitive issues of the international community, especially developing countries, and its effects on the developments of international economic and political relations, is the phenomenon of terrorism. In this context, Asimoglu (2001), believes that with more efficient and better institutions, more investment will be made in the field of physical and human capital, security, improvement in property rights and less deviations in policies. Among the variables affecting growth and investment, security is a key category. Security is a complex concept and due to the existence of constituent quality indicators and its complexity, both theoretically and empirically, it is a source of controversy. Terrorism is a fundamental factor disrupting economic and social security.

The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between terrorism and economic growth in selected countries of the Middle East using the panel spatial econometric method during the period of 1980-2019 using the spatial Durbin model (SDM). Statistics and information required for variables of GDP per capita, foreign trade as a percentage of GDP, bank credits granted to the private sector, foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP and inflation rate from the World Bank website and For the terrorism variable, it has been extracted from the global database of terrorism, separately for 9 selected countries in the Middle East region.

First, in order to check the spatial dependence of the Moran and Jerry C test, the spatial dependence of the countries was confirmed and based on the significance of the Moran test, the research model was estimated in the spatial panel framework. According to the results of the research, terrorist activities show negative and destructive effects on the economic growth of these countries, and this result is consistent with the results of other studies such as Hamida (2018) and Sanafdiari (2017). According to the results of the research, the variables of foreign direct investment, foreign trade, and bank credits have a significant and positive effect on the economic development of the studied countries, of which foreign investment and foreign trade have the greatest impact on economic growth. Also, the inflation rate has a negative and significant effect on the economic growth of the above countries, and these results are consistent with the results of other studies such as Kavah (2007), Khan (2019), Haider et al. (2015) and Sana and Shafi (2018). Be 

Terrorism and the increase in casualties caused by accidents have had a negative effect on economic growth. Terrorism affects economic growth through different channels. The increase in threats and terrorist incidents leads to insecurity in the country of origin and negatively affects the arrival of tourists. Terrorism also negatively affects investment in tourism-related fields by reducing the sense of security and prevents the strengthening of this sector. The direct effect of these terrorist incidents is to create an atmosphere of insecurity on the economy; Because it destroys and diverts productive economic resources. Scarce productive resources that could have been used to produce goods and services in society are now gone. Also, the resources and budgets allocated for other useful sectors of the economy, as a result of terrorist incidents, should now be used to strengthen the country's security. None of these changes, which are necessary to create security, will not create additional wealth for the society and will not raise the level of well-being, and will also negatively affect economic growth. On the other hand, foreign direct investment is one of the main drivers of economic development and its flow has strong effects on the country's economy. Terrorist activities reduce security and reduce investors' trust in countries exposed to terrorist activities, which leads to a decrease in the flow of foreign direct investment.

This research investigates the impact of economic sanctions on Iran's economy, particularly focusing on human capital, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and a new Keynesian approach, from March 2001 to September 2021. The findings indicate that sanctions led to a decline in oil revenues, subsequently reducing public spending on education and hindering human capital development. This decline in human capital has far-reaching consequences, including diminished productivity, reduced investment, and slower economic growth, alongside an inflationary uptick. As inflation erodes real wages, households respond by reducing labor supply, which, in turn, dampens consumption. Given the critical role of human capital in Iran's economic growth, policymakers must safeguard public education spending, particularly during periods of decreased oil revenues. By prioritizing investments in education, the government can mitigate the adverse effects of sanctions and foster long-term economic resilience. In conclusion, the study underscores the importance of maintaining educational investments amidst economic challenges, emphasizing the need for strategic fiscal management to sustain human capital development and drive economic progress.

This study evaluated a relationship between macroeconomic variables and the yield curve in Iran between years 1994:q1-2016:q4 using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The model consists of the household, the firm, the finance, the oil, the government, and the central bank. Both households and firms have the exclusive power to supply their labor and their products to adder, which makes it possible to stipulate nominal rigidity  in   wages and prices. After optimizing and obtaining the first order conditions of the brokers, using Uhlig method, the linear - log shape of the equations were obtained. The results of the impulse response functions indicates that the preliminary effect of the technology, monetary, and oil shocks on the slope of the Islamic treasury bills yield curve is positive, the preliminary effect of the technology, government expenditure, and cost push on the curvature of the yield curve is negative, and the preliminary effect of the technology, government expenditure, and cost push on the level of the yield curve is positive. The comparison of the moments of the model variables and the moments of the actual data of the Iranian economy reveals the success of the model in simulating the realities of the Iranian economy.

The purpose of this paper is to examine how money is created by recording accounting events in the balance sheets of banks. Therefore, a hypothetical economy, comprised of a central bank, a gharzolhasaneh bank, a commercial bank, and the people has been simulated. We pay special attention to special accounting records in the balance sheet of a commercial bank, interest rates and deferred bank loans in the banking system and their effect on the money creation process.  According to the results, the combined use of accrual basis of accounting in identifying uncollected facility income and cash basis of accounting in the payment of interest on deposits in a commercial bank leads to the money creation in the banking system and the higher the interest rate on deposits, the more money will be created. This will not happen in gharzolhasaneh Bank due to non-payment of interest on deposits and non-use of accrual basis of accounting system in identifying the income of paid loans. Also, in case of non-repayment of granted facilities and creation of deferred bank loans, the accrual basis of accounting system allows the commercial bank to continue the process of identifying facility income and paying unrealized interest on deposits, and interest paid on deposits enters the banking system as the new created money.

One of the most important goals of the countries, especially developing countries, is economic growth and development. Foreign direct investment along with human capital and financial development are important factors that can have a significant impact on economic growth. Human capital can be used as a facilitator for the transfer of technology related to foreign direct investment. In addition, evidences show that human capital plays a complementary role to the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth. Technology overflow into domestic companies is also more efficient when financial markets in the host economy are more developed. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to evaluate the short-run and long-run effects of foreign direct investment, human capital and financial development on the economic growth of various income groups in developing countries.

The model used for unsustainable economies (developing countries) is designed to be appropriate for the current study. In this model, the effect of population growth rate and technology, physical capital, human capital, financial development, foreign direct investment, foreign direct investment interaction and financial development and the interaction of foreign direct investment and human capital on economic growth is examined. The statistical population is developing countries in the period 2000-2019. For the study, developing countries were divided into four categories: low-income, lower-middle-income, upper-middle-income, and high-income, which included a total of 27 countries (9 Asian countries, 9 African countries, and 9 South American countries). In this study, first, the significance of variables for developing countries by income groups was investigated. Then, based on the Kao test, the existence of long-run equilibrium relationships among the variables related to the income groups of developing countries was confirmed. FMOLS and DOLS methods were used to investigate the integration.

The results of long-run estimates show that foreign direct investment alone is 0.27 effective on the economic growth of high-income countries, and when combined with human capital and financial development, its impact on economic growth is 0.42 and It will be 0.104. Thus, the effect of the interaction of foreign direct investment and human capital is greater than the effect of foreign direct investment alone on the economic growth of high-income countries. But in other income groups of developing countries, the interaction of foreign direct investment with human capital and financial development has not had a positive effect on economic growth. Also, the results of short-run estimates showed that foreign direct investment alone does not affect the economic growth of high-income countries, but the interaction of foreign direct investment and financial development and the interaction of foreign direct investment and human capital by 0.48 and respectively. 2.13 affects economic growth. This result shows that in the short run, foreign direct investment alone has no effect on economic growth, but along with human capital and financial development have a positive effect on economic growth in these countries. In other income groups of developing countries, the interaction of foreign direct investment with human capital and financial development has not had a positive effect on economic growth. Also, the correct component of the error of foreign direct investment interaction with financial development and human capital shows that in each period, 78% and 95% of the imbalances in the system are eliminated to achieve long-run equilibrium, respectively. But in other income groups, the speed of adjustment is very low or non-existent.

These results show that high-income countries have realized that it is possible to increase productivity due to the high level of human capital and skilled labor through the transfer of new technologies and technology overflows, and this is a positive factor in Economic growth works. Also in high-income developing countries, due to the high institutional capacity in the economic structure that has led to comprehensive efficiency in the mechanism of credit allocation of these countries, the interactive effect of foreign direct investment and financial development on economic growth in the short-run and long –run is positive.

Oil price shocks in recent decades have had a profound effect on the economies of the world, both exporters and importers of oil. Countries that depend on revenues from the sale of oil and gas resources during economic growth, as well as those that import Oil resources are particularly sensitive to changes and fluctuations in oil prices. Axes related to globalization and factors affecting the increase in the volume of international trade have raised many questions in the macroeconomy. Is a commercial instrument.In this study, we examine the effect of oil price shocks and trade openness turmoil on economic growth and inflation in two groups of oil exporting and importing countries.The results show that the research hypotheses that the response of economic growth and inflation to oil price shocks are asymmetric in both groups of oil exporting and importing countries. Also, the results of tests and estimation of patterns show openness. Trade has a positive effect on economic growth and inflation of oil exporting countries and a negative and positive effect on economic growth and inflation of oil importing countries.

Government expenditures as an important component of fiscal policy can play an important role in macroeconomic stabilization. Taking cyclical features and behaviors of various types of government expenditures into account, ameliorates the effectiveness of fiscal policy in confronting with economic shocks. This research tries to evaluate the cyclical features of different types of government expenditures and influential factors in Iran's economy by using Iran’s time series data from 1359 to 1398 and a two-stage autoregressive distributed lags model. Based upon the findings of this research, all types of government expenditures in Iran, behave procyclically. Government investment aggravates the fluctuation of fiscal cycles more than government consumption, and the procyclical effect of government investment in machinery is more than the procyclical effect of government investment in construction. In addition, the findings show that adding control variables, affects the logarithm coefficient of GDP in all models and therefore plays an important role in the cyclical behavior of various types of government expenditures. The government debt to GDP ratio and the government income to GDP ratio reduce cyclical fluctuations and the government size, inflation rate and elections intensify cyclical fluctuations.

How economic fluctuations affect macroeconomic variables is important in policy making. In this study, we examine the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks and real exchange rate volatility fluctuations on economic growth and inflation in two groups of oil exporting and importing countries.For this purpose, we have used the panel data method in the period 2018-1990The RGARCH model is used to calculate oil price shocks. The results show that the research hypotheses that the response of economic growth and inflation to oil price shocks in both groups of oil exporting and importing countries are asymmetric.Also, the results of tests and model estimation show that real exchange rate fluctuations have a negative and positive effect on economic growth and inflation of oil exporting countries and a positive effect on economic growth and inflation of oil importing countries. 

The price of housing as a real estate is a function of credit factors that can affect fluctuations in housing prices. The purpose of this study is to identify the extent and severity of the effect of credit variables of mortgage facilities on housing price index in selected metropolises during the years 1389 to 1399, also in the framework of panel data, stepwise regression method has been used. Understanding the factors and variables affecting housing prices can play an important role in economic decisions related to housing and policy in this area. In this research, by using statistical and econometric methods and using panel data model, the factors affecting the cost of housing in Iranian metropolises have been studied with emphasis on credit variables. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method. According to this model, the variables affecting the price of housing in Iranian metropolises are in order of priority: the amount of housing facilities, the ratio of the value of facilities to the price of housing, credit score of mortgage applicants, average installment repayment, inflation rate and interest rate of all bank facilities. The variables are statistically significant and in line with theoretical foundations. The results show that the most important factor determining the housing price index is the inflation rate with an impact factor of 1.93. The loan-to-housing ratio ratio, the amount of mortgage facilities and the credit score have a reducing effect on the housing price index. In general, the higher the credit score of facility applicants in metropolitan areas, the lower the facility interest rate and inflation rate, the higher the facility amount and the higher the LTV ratio, the lower the housing price index.

Price fluctuation patterns in financial markets and analysis of price fluctuations have always received attention. Thus, the accuracy of the system used for analysis is very important. For more than two decades, econophysics has been using quantum physics and Schrodinger functions to address price fluctuations, confirming the need for the development of a common framework. This study analyzed the daily data from Stock, Gold, and Foreign Exchange markets in Iran from 2013 to 2022. Following the total Stock index and the price of the full Bahar Azadi coin from the Gold market and the unofficial Dollar rate from the Foreign Exchange market, the relevant Schrödinger equation was obtained using the financial quantum approach and the Hamiltonian operator. Then, the wave function was solved. Finally, the graphs for the distribution and average rate of return in each market were plotted and compared. The results showed that the Stock market has the lowest level of risk compared to other markets and the Gold market has the highest risk. Thus, the probability of fluctuations and crises in the Gold market is higher and in the Stock market is lower than in other markets. This implies a higher level of transparency in the Stock market compared to the other two markets.

The phenomenon of unemployment is one of the major socio-economic problems that is directly and indirectly affected by the way of governance. Since the mid-1990s, under the influence of the development of new institutionalism literature and the recommendations of international institutions, governance and its components were considered as main deteminants of development strategy of countries and controlling the unemployment rate. According to the theory of new institutionalism, corruption is the main cause of unemployment and many economic problems of countries. The main aim of this research is to investigate the dynamic relationship between corruption and unemployment in OPEC member states for the period from 2005 to 2019. For this purpose, the generalized moment method (SGMM) is used in this research. The results indicate that corruption control can play an effective role in reducing the unemployment rate. Also, the political stability has a negative and significant effect on the unemployment rate; In the sense that the reduction of political instabilities and more governance control over political events can lead to a reduction in the unemployment rate in OPEC member states.

The present study investigates the effect of globalization on energy consumption in developing countries including Iran for the period 2000 to 2018 in the form of a quantile panel regression approach. For this purpose, the KOF index was used as a globalization variable. The index, KOF, includes real trade flows such as trade, foreign direct investment and portfolio investment, as well as trade barriers such as restrictions and tariffs on real flows. The results of this study show that in low energy consumption quantiles, the effect of globalization on energy consumption has been positive and significant;  But at high levels of energy consumption, the impact of globalization on energy consumption has gradually diminished. Also in high energy consumption quantiles, the effect of GDP on energy consumption has decreased, the effect of financial development and capital formation on energy consumption has gradually decreased and the effect of foreign investment on energy consumption has gradually decreased. According to the research results, it is necessary to take steps in the field of sustainable development by adopting and implementing rational policies consistent with the role of energy in the trade sector and provide the ground for economic growth and development.

Fair distribution of income in countries is one of the development indicators of each country. Therefore, it is necessary to adopt appropriate policies for its improvement in order to identify the effect of effective factors on it. In this study, the importance of determining the optimal inflation rate with the aim of minimizing income inequality by using the randomized dynamic equilibrium method in Iran between 1997 and 2020 is discussed. The results of the research indicate that the inflation rate is optimized to be 3.74 percent, so that the increase or decrease of inflation of this amount will increase income inequality. Therefore, the government should target its inflation rate with the aim of attaining the minimum inequality, so that the probability of fluctuations (increase or decrease) in inequality will exist.

One of the most important goals of the countries, especially developing countries, is economic growth and development. One of the sources that can retrieve the lack of capital in the developing countries and lead to economic growth is foreign direct investment. Some evidence shows the human capital plays a mediating role in the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth. The other important factor that can affect economic growth and the prosperity of countries, is the information and communication technology. Thus, the current research aim is to present a foreign direct investment model and economic growth in developing countries with the mediating role of human capital and information and communication technology.

The study populations are the developing countries between 2000-2018. In this research, the developing countries in three continents of Asia, Africa, and Southern America have been selected. Then, the countries are divided into four different income groups: developing countries with high-income, developing countries with higher than medium income, developing countries with lower than medium income, and developing countries with low-income. Thus, in the end, 27 countries in three continents have been chosen as the statistical sample. The method used in this study is the multi-group modeling approach with the structural models with partial least square (PLS) approach.

The results showed that only in the developing countries with high income, the human capital and information and communication technology have a mediating role on the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth. Thus in high income countries, foreign direct investment affects human capital by 0.609 and human capital affects economic growth by 0.428. Foreign direct investment affects information and communication technology by 0.482 and information and communication technology by 0.348 affects economic growth. In the other income groups in developing countries, these two variables couldn’t have any impact on foreign direct investment on economic growth as a mediator.

Based on the results, it is recommended for developing countries to implement human capital, information and communication technology in foreign direct investment and increase economic growth by using these factors.