پریا صمدی پرویزنژاد

The main purpose of this paper is a dynamic analysis of oil and gas exports and sales income in 2050. A dynamic system is needed to forecast the export and sales of oil in the future, which requires considering the cause-and-effect relationships between the variables affecting the main research problem.

This paper is applied in terms of purpose, which uses dynamic system modeling to create the model.

Two positive causal loops of oil and gas sales growth and oil and gas field capacity utilization growth, and three negative causal loops of capacity limitations in oil and gas fields, limitations in oil and gas field capacity utilization, and the third was created with the limitation of access to oil resources. Also, three optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic scenarios were simulated in the dynamic system model. In the first scenario, the simulation was performed based on the changes in the oil price parameter in the future. In this scenario, oil and gas exports grew by 38%. In the second scenario, the income from exports showed an eight-fold growth optimistically. Finally, in the pessimistic scenario, the graphs showed that the values of the state variables remained constant. Finally, the validation was done using the analysis of different scenarios for the dynamic system model.

Originality/Value:

 In this paper, in addition to the dynamic analysis of the factors influencing oil and gas industry variables, the time effects of these changes have also been considered. Previous studies have only used economic development variables to predict the future of the oil and gas industry. In this paper, the values of other variables, such as production capacity, existing reservoirs, and market risk, are considered as the main variables in the dynamic model for scenarios in the time horizon of 2050.

Eenterprise architecture is a concept for organizing and classifying relevant information in a field that the framework is used as a reference for preparing layers of Enterprise architecture. Due to conflicting functions, lack of proper coordination between components, lack of proper integration and redundant processes in organizations; Infrastructure engineering and enterprise architecture is essential and vital for organizations to operate with maximum efficiency. In this research, Zachman framework has been used for engineering the technological infrastructure of the administrative and public affairs department of the East Azerbaijan ACECR. The present study is applied in terms of purpose and survey-analytical in terms of data collection method. The statistical population is all the personnel of East Azerbaijan ACECR. The statistical sample of the representatives introduced in the East Azerbaijan ACECR units is. This research has been done in 4 phases. In phases 1 and 2, the first and second layers of enterprise architecture have been completed by identifying processes, documenting and modeling processes through specialized interview sessions. In Phase 3, during the preparation of the enterprise architecture maturity questionnaire, the impact layer of data and information layer, information technology and business through Smart PLS software is presented. In the final phase, the Zachman model presented for managing administrative and public affairs, which the main processes of the organization are in, and has more communication with other units, in the field of planning, the organizational model and the system model. The results of engineering the technology infrastructure of the organization are to provide the desired strategies in order to improve the current situation. Also, by examining the effect of data and information layer, information technology and business layer on the state of architectural maturity of the organization, information technology with a path coefficient of 0.227, access to information and data with a path coefficient of 0.399 and business processes were observed. Working with a path coefficient of 0.367 has a positive and significant effect on organizational maturity. Finally, it can be said that the implementation of enterprise architecture in the University Jihad Organization improves the level of effective indicators in management and technology.