پویا فرحانی

Cities are complex systems that are vulnerable to natural hazards. This research was conducted with the aim of identifying and analyzing the indicators affecting the urban resilience of Bam city and modeling the state of urban resilience in dealing with earthquakes.

To achieve the objectives of this study, with the help of 19 experts and completing two rounds of the Delphi questionnaire, 13 criteria, and 35 sub-criteria were selected in the form of four dimensions including economical, social, ecological, and infrastructure, as the first step. Analytical Network Process (ANP) and Super Decisions software were used to perform pairwise comparisons and determine the final weights. As the next step, the 15-year statistics of the research criteria were collected to complete the equations for the urban modeling stage. And finally, the Bam urban resilience model was designed using Stella architect 3.2 software for a period of 30 years from 1385 to 1415.

The results showed that the ecological dimension with a weight of 0.439 plays the most important role in the resilience of Bam city. Also, the modeling results revealed that Bam urban resilience index in 1401 is estimated at 44.96%.

According to the final results, it can be concluded that Bam city does not have ideal conditions in terms of urban resilience in dealing with earthquakes, and in case of similar incidents, this city will not have the ability to be resilient in critical situations.

 In recent decades, with the acceleration of urbanization and the growth of migration to cities, the physical structure of cities has undergone extensive changes. To implement these changes, regardless of the ecological capacities and requirements of sustainable urban development, cities are facing many challenges. One of these challenges is determining the appropriate areas for the physical expansion of the city for the establishment of urban development. One of the most reliable methods to determine the appropriate directions and areas for urban development by considering environmental conditions and characteristics is the land suitability assessment. Such an assessment greatly contributes to sustainable land use and solving environmental problems caused by rapid urban development. Land suitability assessment aims to identify the most appropriate spatial pattern for future land uses considering the ecological potential of the area. Since many criteria need to be considered and analyzed in the selection of appropriate lands for urban development, it is necessary to use the most effective techniques to identify the best locations for future urban expansion. The Geographic Information System is such a technique, having its most useful application in the land suitability assessment method. In setting the importance of the criteria used and computing the weights of factors, GIS tools must be integrated with other methods to improve the results. Given that, the present study attempted to evaluate the land suitability to determine suitable areas for the establishment of urban development of Bam city through the integration of the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making approach, Fuzzy Logic, and Geographic Information System.

 To achieve the objectives of this study, with the help of a group of experts, and an extensive review of the related literature, all the criteria and sub-criteria essential to the establishment of urban development were identified as the first step. To this end, a questionnaire was designed and distributed among the group of experts and they were asked to express their opinions on the identified criteria and sub-criteria. To determine the required sample size and population, Morgan’s sampling table was employed. Consequently, 9 criteria and 13 sub-criteria were selected for the land suitability assessment in this study.Multi-Criteria Decision-Making method and Expert-Choice software were used to compare and weigh the previously determined criteria and sub-criteria. As the next step, all the data layers were standardized by the fuzzy logic method using ArcGIS software. The scale of the maps used in this research is 1:100000 and the resolution of digital layers is 90×90 meters. After assigning calculated weights to each data layer, they were overlaid using the Weighted Linear Combination method and fuzzy sum technique.

The results from MCDM analysis revealed that three sub-criteria namely distance from major faults, distance from drinking water wells, and soil texture had the highest weights among other factors at 0.235, 0.117, and 0.114, respectively. The inconsistency calculated for the pairwise comparison in this study was 0.07, which is below the 0.1 thresholds. Analysis of the final raster suitability map, resulting from overlaying data layers, showed that the highest and the lowest pixel values were 0.481 and 0.07, respectively. To perform a more accurate analysis, the final suitability map was classified into four suitability classes (medium, low, very low, and undevelopable) indicating that 24% of the studied area equivalent to 189965.2 hectares, categorized as having medium suitability, 34% low equivalent to 268854.3 hectares, 22% very low equivalent to 178695.7 hectares, and 20% undevelopable equivalent to 160762/3 hectares for the establishment of urban development. The medium suitable areas are mainly located in the east, northwest, and to a lesser extent in the center, mostly away from the major fault lines, while the areas of very low suitability and undevelopable are mainly located in the west and south of the area studied. Due to their proximityto protected areas, mountainous, fault lines, and hills, these areas do not demonstrate the appropriate suitability for the establishment of urban development.

 This study was conducted to identify and determine suitable areas for the establishment of urban development in Bam city using a combination of the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making approach, Geographic Information System, and Fuzzy Logic technique. All the criteria and sub-criteria, used to conduct this study, have been determined using a questionnaire and considering the environmental conditions and socio-economic characteristics of the studied area. As a result, 9 criteria including water resources, climate, topography, geology, soil, areas under the Department of Environment Management, roads, population centers, and land use, and 13 sub-criteria including distance from surface and groundwater resources, climate, wind speed, slope, altitude, distance from the main faults, geology, soil texture, distance from protected areas, distance from roads, distance from built-up urban areas and land use were selected for this study. Expert Choice and ArcGIS software were employed for pairwise comparison and standardization and overlaying data layers. It was found that 24% of the studied area equivalent to 189965.2 hectares can be categorized as medium suitability for the establishment of urban development. Based on the final results, it is concluded that the integration of the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making approach, Fuzzy Logic, and Geographic Information System can provide sufficient tools to determine the areas suitable for urban development and present a detailed analysis of these areas according to the characteristics of the area for future planning.

Ignoring hospital wastes management has caused numerous problems. So the consequences of neglecting the management of these wastes have threatened the environment and human health. This research is done in 1394 and is a case study in Dr. Shariati hospital of Tehran. The aim was to assess the current situation of hospital wastes management system and propose practical strategies and suggestions for improving the management system of hospital wastes.

To determine the current status, after observing the place and controlling wastes management condition during 3 months a questionnaire was distributed through SWOT method and Likert scoring scale within 30 persons and its results were used to complete internal and external factors Matrix and tables of SPACE and Freeman methods.

The analyses showed scoring of external and internal factors are 2/34 and 2/61 respectively. In order to determine each external and internal factors weight more accurately, the hierarchy structure and paired comparison was established using AHP method and Expert Choice software. To set the position of the hospital, SPACE method was used and the hospital rank was in SO position. At the end, Freeman method was used to prioritize the strategies from stake holders’ point of views and “accurate wastes management” became first by +75 score.

As a result, it can be concluded that Freeman and SPACE methods are suitable and efficient for presenting strategic programs in hospital wastes management