کاظم یاوری

Investors seek solutions in order to manage risks and create security in the market so as to have more control over the value of investment during market fluctuations. For this purpose, various derivatives have been designed. One of them is option. In option markets, those who want to have a lower risk can transfer their risk to those who seek more risk. These markets will provide risk distribution among investors, and no investment has to bear an unfavorable level of risk. Gaining profit with higher returns is one of the attractions of option trading. Investors can often have investment opportunities with the aim of playing the stock market or staying safe from risk by simultaneously buying and selling option contracts. In general, different combinations of option trade strategies provide investors with a suitable basis to earn profit. Recently, Heril rail stock has started to use options in the OTC. Due to the newness of these derivative instruments in the rail sector, no research has been done in this regard. So far, studies have been conducted on the use of trading strategies abroad, but domestic studies are very limited, which is mostly due to asymmetric strategies. No study is yet done on symmetric trading strategies. So, the present study can claim novelty.

This study focuses on over-the-counter (OTC) railway transportation companies. The OTC shares of railway transportation are for Toka, Hasa, Heparsa, Haseer, Hegardesh, Heril and Heafarin companies. The data of the stock exchange companies of railway transport from 2021 to 2023 were taken from the TseClient 2.0 software, and the stock price information was collected as a daily time series. To calculate the price fluctuations from Excel and to draw a chart related to stock options, the DerivaGem calculation software, which is related to option pricing, and the Python software were used in addition to reviewing the appropriate strategy for risk management and opportunity analysis. This study analyzes the binomial tree pricing model and the strategies adopted on the option to buy rail shares. Among the trading strategies, symmetric straddle and asymmetric Bear Call Spread strategies have been chosen. For analysis, one of the railway companies is selected as an example. This analysis is the same for the other rail stocks, but the outputs are different.

For the purpose of Binomial option pricing, the exercise price for Heparsa shares is considered to be 77951 Rials. This is based on the maturity of four months and according to Monte Carlo simulation. The annual volatility of Heparsa shares at the chosen time is found to be 39% based on volatility calculation formulas. Also, according to the straddle formulas and the prices resulting from the valuation of the option through the binomial model at the maturity of four months, Long Call Option return of Heparsa stock, Long Put Option return of Heparsa stock, and the total output of the Call option strategy were calculated. The results of the Straddle strategy calculations show that from 64000 to 91300 Rials in the price range of Heparsa shares, there is a negative return on investment. The Call option of Heparsa shares has a positive return at purchase prices lower than 64,000 Rials and at prices higher than 91300 Rials. Recession in the Iranian stock market and the use of Bear Call Spread asymmetric strategy can reconcile investors with this market. According to the Bear Call Spread asymmetric strategy, the Call option of shares of Heparsa with a maturity of four months at the exercise price of 77951 Rials (X2) and the Call option of the same share with a maturity of four months at the exercise price of 64544 Rials (X1) are sold to another investor at less than the price of the previous actions. According to the binomial put option pricing model, the selling price of this Call option is 4.15378 Rials. The closing price of this company's stock at the maturity of four months is estimated by the binomial tree model and found to be 115989, 92708, 74100, 59227 and 47339 Rials. Finally, according to the calculations related to the Bear Call Spread asymmetric strategy, the distance between the exercise prices of 77951 and 64544 rials is a downward trend of returns. The Call option of Heparsa shares will have a positive and constant return of 8126 Rials at the agreed purchase price of less than 64544 Rials, and at a price higher than 77951 Rials will have a negative and constant return of -5281 Rials.

Conclusions and policy implications: 

In this study, profit models resulting from the adoption of symmetric and asymmetric strategies were analyzed. In the last few years, Iran’s stock market has experienced severe fluctuations, and its trend cannot be predicted by any technical or fundamental analysis. For this reason, among options trading strategies, symmetric strategies, straddle model, asymmetric strategies, and Bear Call Spread strategy for risk management in the current market conditions have been selected for investigation. The Bear Call Spread strategy is used when there is an expectation of a decrease in the stock price, which is more appropriate in the current situation when the stock market is in recession, and the return of the Bear Call Spread strategy can be positive and profitable for the investor. The symmetric straddle strategy can be profitable for the investor both in increasing the stock price and in decreasing the stock price. An increase in stock prices can be predicted for the time when an agreement is reached for the country, which will have positive effects on the capital market. In general, it is not possible to find a strategy that works successfully for all conditions and reasons such as risk aversion and risk tolerance of the investor. Also, stock price fluctuations can be influential in choosing the type of strategy

Financing remains one of the most critical aspects of business growth and sustainability. The Initial Coin Offering (ICO) method, a novel approach to financing leveraging blockchain technology, has garnered attention due to its ability to attract significant capital globally within a short period and without requiring intermediaries. Understanding and analyzing the factors that influence the success or failure of ICOs is thus valuable for businesses and investors alike. This paper examines the factors impacting ICO success using logistic regression analysis, focusing on 307 completed ICO projects from 2016 to 2018. We consider two target success variables: "Total funds collected" and "Hard cap achievement percentage." Factors related to the project, campaign, social networks, and team characteristics were analyzed in separate models. Through model selection based on performance and feature prioritization using the Permutation Importance (PI) technique, the findings highlight that having a well-defined "Business model available" significantly contributes to ICO success across both models. Additionally, the top features in the first selected model under the categories of project, campaign, and social network are "White paper pages," "Token share for presale investors," and "GitHub account," respectively. In the second model, the most impactful factors are "Use of proceeds mentioned" and "Length of crowdsale" under the project and campaign categories.

Financing is very important for businesses. Initial Coin Offering is a new way of financing businesses based on blockchain technology. It seems necessary to explain this method and calculate its success factors. Therefore, in this article, using the support vector machine (SVM) algorithm, we have investigated the factors affecting the success of initial coin offering campaigns among 307 projects from 2016 to the end of 2018. In this article, the effect of the characteristics of the project, campaign, social networks and the team in a cumulative process on the two target variables- the total amount raised in the ICO process, and the percentage of hard cap (maximum capital determined by the founders of the project) raised as success criteria- have been examined in two separate model series. By obtaining the optimal models based on their performance and prioritizing the features using the Lasso technique, this article shows the two features of "Token supply is fixed" and "availability of smart contract code" have the highest level of influence in the success of an Initial Coin offering According to the results of both optimal models.

Identifying the determinants of youth employment has a direct effect on enhancing productivity, and knowing such determinants can facilitate it for policymakers to deal with the challenges ahead. Youth employment in the MENA region is one of the lowest levels of employment in the world, which has weakened productivity in this region compared to other regions of the world. The hypothesis suggested by the neoclassical labor market theory is that the lower employment is mainly due to the presence of more stringent rules of the labor market which pose an obstacle to achieving full employment. Neoclassical theoretical arguments in favor of higher labor market flexibility are based on the fact that labor market flexibilization is a key factor to enhance productivity, increase the competition of firms in the market, and increase economic growth and employment. In particular, it is possible to express at least four reasons as why a high degree of rigidity in the labor market reduces the employment level. They are a) the existence of stringent labor market rules determines that, in equilibrium conditions, workers’ wages be higher than their marginal product, thus leading to the misallocation of resources, b) higher labor market rigidity poses an obstacle to the adjustment of the labor market determined by the changes of the business cycle, c) the rigidity of labor markets induces economic rents from the capital to labor, which reduces the profitability of investors and discourages investment and economic growth, and d) the rigidity of labor market institutions protects insiders and prevents outsiders (especially young workers) from accessing the labor market. On the other hand, there are at least three arguments in opposition to the neoclassical labor market hypothesis. They include a) higher deregulation does not contribute to an increase in youth employment, but it exerts only a substitution effect, e.g. the substitution of typical employment with sub-protected workers, b) policies aiming to provide greater flexibility in the labor market may have some effect in the short run, but, in the long run, they are harmful for innovation, economic growth and employment, c) labor market flexibility policies to reduce workers' wage have detrimental effects on firms because they lead to adverse selection regarding workers. Considering the theoretical arguments pro and con, the motivation for this study is to evaluate whether the implementation of labor market flexibility has produced the desired effects on employment as stated by the neoclassical theory, or, vice versa, whether it is harmful to employment as stated by heterodox scholars.

In this study, we use the youth employment data and the labor market regulation index in the MENA region from 2005 to 2019 as well as the two-stage D-GMM estimator method and the two-stage SYS-GMM method to evaluate the robustness of the results. We also examine the validity of the neoclassical hypothesis regarding the effect of flexibility on employment.

Based on the results, labor market regulations have a positive and insignificant effect on youth employment, which does not provide evidence in support of the neoclassical hypothesis. On the contrary, this research shows that economic growth and foreign direct investment have a positive and significant effect on youth employment. In the case of the inflation variable, the D-GMM estimator method shows a positive and significant effect but, in the case of the population growth variable, the SYS-GMM estimator shows a significant negative effect.Conclusions and policy implications: The economic literature suggests that higher labor market flexibility is one of the main pillars to increase youth employment. Indeed, a rigid labor market increases production costs for firms and reduces firms’ competitiveness in international markets; as a result, production and employment are reduced. Considering the other variables in our empirical model, we find that growth contributes to increase youth employment. In this regard, it is worth spending some words regarding the effect of growth on youth employment. That economic growth allows for the increase of youth employment is not new because, over time, it has been confirmed empirically in several previous studies. Instead, much discussion revolves around the debate of how to create an environment which is favorable for economic growth. One of the most important factors that can create a suitable environment for economic growth is improving competitiveness in the market. One of the ways in this regard is to increase the flexibility of the labor market through a) the introduction of atypical jobs (fixed and part-time contracts) to facilitate the entry of young people into the labor market, b) lowering the hiring and firing costs, allowing firms to increase their competitiveness on international markets and adjust the labor demand according to the business, c) reducing employment security, aiming to reduce the protection that insider workers enjoy, thus preventing the labor market segmentation described by the insider-outsider theory, and d) reducing the dominance of the public sector or, in other words, the development of a private sector, which is very important for job creation. The dominant role of the public sector as an employer throughout MENA has distorted labor market and diverted resources from dynamic private sectors. On the other hand, government hiring practices have typically placed a premium on diplomas over actual skills and contributed to skill mismatches. Another tool that can increase the flexibility and efficiency of the labor market and, thus, economic growth is the appropriate investment in active labor market policies, which have been growing in recent years in developing countries. This is because governments of these economies increasingly see ALMPs as a tool capable of both improving labor market efficiency and increasing growth. Active labor market policies can be growth-enhancing through higher average productivity in the economy by helping workers to find jobs that are better suited to their skills and experience, encouraging skill acquisition and human capital development, improving participants' employability, reducing information asymmetry in job-search processes, and raising the average job-matching rate.

The healthcare system holds a significance role in economic growth and development of any country. For assessing and evaluating the healthcare system, the relative prices of this sector are one of the crucial indicator. This study employs a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model to examine the impacts of monetary, fiscal and technology shocks on the healthcare sector in the Iranian economy. The results indicate that positive monetary shock has direct impact on general inflation but tends to be reduced the relative prices of the health sector. Thus, the positive impact of this shock on the production of non-health goods is greater than the health sector. Also, positive shocks related to oil income, government health sector expenditures, and technology increase the production of health and non-health goods and have an inverse effect on inflation of this sector.

Monetary policies affect macroeconomic variables and financial indexes through changes in importance parameters of macroeconomic. Therefore, it is necessary to test the effects of changes in these parameters in a simulation environment. In present paper, the effect of monetary policies on Iran’s financial market has been simulated with a system dynamics model and using data from 2011 to 2021 (and simulated until 2031). The results showed that some monetary policy variables, such as the increase in interest rate, have an effect on the distribution of financial assets between the bank, the stock market, and non-productive assets, and reduce the capital market size, and others, such as increasing in bank credit, foreign asset in central bank and government debts will increase all financial markets. The increase in the bank interest rate, despite the increase in deposits in the bank, will reduce investment in the stock market and increase the trend towards non-productive assets such as dollars and gold. Also, government financing through borrowing from the central bank increases propensity to non-productive assets and increases the inflationary cycle.

The Railway transportation industry is one of the major indicators of the development of countries. On the other hand, the railway transportation sector has many risks and uncertainties that can be considered as a negative factor from the perspective of investors. The purpose of this study is to identify and manage the risk of the railway transportation sector, which has been used as an example of the listed Stock exchange companies of railway transport. The risks of the railway transportation sector, especially the systematic risk of rail stock companies, are estimated with the beta coefficient, and then the ranking of rail stocks will be done according to the systematic risk. Related stocks are priced according to systematic risk with the capital assets pricing model. After identifying the risks of this sector, for risk management, option valuation will be used using the binomial model. Finally, the sensitivity of the option price of railway shares is checked using Greek parameters. Due to the large volume of data and their non-normality, in order to predict the future price and the exercise price of stocks, the Monte Carlo simulation method is used for option pricing. According to the outputs of the model and the examination of the movement path and price changes of rail stocks and option prices with the help of the binomial model in Python and DERIVAGEM software, as well as the estimation of the option price sensitivity by Greek parameters, relevant analyzes are expressed for different rail stocks.

The challenge of employment or the issue of unemployment is not only considered one of the most important social issues of the day in the country, but considering the rate of population growth in the past two decades, it can also be considered the most important economic-social challenge of the next few decades. On the other hand, in the last hundred years, the world has seen different economic and non-economic crises, such as the 2008 American financial crisis and the spread of the C ovid-19. The economic policies used to overcome the crisis have been different according to the time period and the depth of the recession resulting from the crisis, the reasons for the occurrence of the crisis and the extent of the crisis in different countries. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to analyze the country's tax policies during the outbreak of the covid-19 on the employment level of the country: the Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach during the years 1397 to 1400. The findings of this research indicated that the shock of Corona caused a 50% decrease in employment in the service sector. The decline in employment affects the borrowers sector and reduces their consumption by almost 10%. This decrease in the consumption of the non-service sector has also led to a decrease in employment in other sectors by 4 percent. In turn, these interactions lead to a 10 percent decrease in GDP. In order to investigate the effect of the government's tax policies on macroeconomic variables, especially the level of employment during the outbreak of the Corona virus, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model has been designed for the Iranian economy in the form of three scenarios facing the government. After specifying the model, optimizing and obtaining the first-order condition of the economic factors, the results of the calibration indicate that the effect of the government's financial policies on the macroeconomic variables under all three scenarios are almost the same and are in accordance with the theoretical expectations of the economy. The increase in government spending has helped to maintain employment in the non-service sector, and the reduction of taxes by maintaining the income of borrowers leads to a decrease in unemployment and a decrease in default rates. Based on this, it is suggested that the government reduce the harmful effects of the spread of the corona virus by adopting better financial policies, especially in the field of taxation, so that the level of employment and other macroeconomic variables reach their stable status.

In order to achieve economic growth, policy makers have always had a special look at the industry sector. As far as the industry is called the engine of economic growth. Therefore, the growth of the industry has always been considered, and policies have been adopted to accelerate it. The factors affecting the growth of the industry are divided into two categories of internal and external factors, and therefore, determining the contribution of each of these two categories in the growth of the industry can be a good guide in making macroeconomic decisions. Therefore, two objectives have been considered for this study. The first goal of this research is to estimate the capital stock of the manufacturing industries using data revised by the Iranian Statistics Center, and the second goal is to determine the contribution of internal and external factors affecting the growth of the manufacturing industries value added with a special view on capital as an internal factor.  The data used in this study is the time series of 2002-2019, and the Dadkhah and Zahedi (D-Z) method was used to estimate the capital stock of the manufacturing industries. The contribution of external and internal factors affecting the growth of the manufacturing industries is obtained by multiplying the production elasticity of the production factors in their growth using the Solow growth model. Also, the existence of a long-term relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables has been investigated through the Pesaran bounds test. The long-term correlation coefficients were obtained using ordinary least squares regression and the error correction method (ECM) was used to estimate the short-term correlation coefficients of the variables.  After performing the unit root test, it was determined that all the variables used in the research were non-stationary at the level and after one time of differentiation, they were stationary. Therefore, for the existence of co-accumulation and the existence of the long-term relationship, the Pesaran bounds test was performed, and the cointegration between the variables was confirmed. Also, due to the existence of autocorrelation, by dividing the variables by the number of labors, they are included in the model per capita. Calculating variables such as the size of the government, exchange rate and the degree of the economic openness per capita have no meaning from an economic point of view, so the act of dividing has not been done for them. The results of the ordinary least square method have shown that in the long term, the amount of money per capita with a 32% share in the growth of the industry is the most influential external variable of this research, and after that, capital per capita is the second most important and effective factor on the said variable. Also, the third variable influencing the growth of the industry in the long term is the exchange rate with a share of nearly 7%. However, the coefficients estimated by the error correction method indicate that in the short term, the share of capital per capita and the volume of money per capita in the growth of the industry are 38 and 21 percent, respectively, and no other influential variable has been observed in the short term. The results of investigating the absence of heterogeneity of variance, autocorrelation, and collinearity problems using Hausman, LM, and variance inflation index (VIF) tests respectively for both OLS and ECM methods have shown that the aforementioned problems did not exist, and therefore, the results of this study are reliable.  The results of this research, using the revised data of industrial workshops with 10 or more workers in the period of 2002-2019 and using the Solow growth model, indicate that in the short term, internal factors and in the long term, external factors have contributed the most to the growth of industrial production. It can be concluded that in the long term, the economic conditions at the macro level of the country and the economic variables affecting the performance of the industry sector, which are exogenously determined for it or in other words imposed on it, have had a greater contribution to economic sector growth than the variables that are in the decision-making sphere of economic units. The important point hidden in these results is that observing the effects of internal factors in the short term should not lead to neglecting the long-term effects of external factors and making policies with a short-term perspective. That is, paying attention only to making decisions that emphasize the internal factors of the industry, such as capital and labor, and making decisions at the macro level without considering the long-term effects on the industry sector, prevents the industry sector from reaching its potential growth.

Pricing The structure of Iranian financial systems is based on banking loans and credits. For this reason, Iranian commercial banks maintain the monopoly over supplying credits to various sectors. Furthermore, together, they establish the biggest financial system in the economy. Due to the recent widespread banking crises in many countries, including Iran, and their impacts on their economies, studying banks' balance sheet problems at the time of these crises is crucial. Within the framework of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, this research explains the crisis in Iran’s banking system and its effects on macroeconomic variables. Specifically, this is done by estimating the limits of fictitious assets of the banking system and calculating the balance sheets insolvency. Banking crises are usually characterized by two characteristics, a) major issues in the banking system, like depositors’ rush to withdraw money from banks and severe losses of the banking network, and b) ensued bankruptcies. The government has interventions in the face of losses of the banking network. The first case, which is termed as bank run and liquidity crisis, is caused by depositors’ rush to withdraw from the bank or any other situations in which the bank is unable to honor its obligation to its depositors. The second case is balance sheet crisis. This is an asset-liability gap in which the difference between a bank’s debt value and assets value exceeds the bank’s capital value. This research explores the latter issue.

The purpose of this study is to design an applicable model in macroeconomics so as to investigate the effects of balance sheet crisis on the main macroeconomic variables for Iran’s economy. A DSGE model is used for this purpose. The main structure of the model has been designed using the works of Deeb (2008 & 2010), Agnour et al. (2012), Kandak (2012) and Ahmadian (2014). The most important difference is the expansion of the banking model for the specific conditions of the Iranian banking system and the inclusion of balance sheet crisis as an imperative fact in the structure of that banking system. The model covers six sectors including household, firm, government, bank, oil revenue, and monetary authority. As mentioned, its distinctive feature is the application of a balance sheet shock through its most important component, namely the default of bank loans and its effect on macroeconomic variables such as production, investment and inflation. The shock of non-performing loans is modeled as a white noise shock. The white noise shock is also consistent with the behavior of delinquencies in the country's banking system. Given that the frequency of default events is very low compared to the number of loans and that defaulters have very different characteristics and considering that each loan default event occurs in different macroeconomic conditions, the default events should inevitably be considered as independent shocks.

The effect of the balance sheet shock on the deposit market is the same as its effect on liquidity, first decreasing and then increasing. Given that this model also takes bank rush into account, the occurrence of imbalances causes public panic and reduces the amount of deposits. From a microeconomic point of view, the depositor's fear reduces the household's desire to keep money. This drop in the deposit supply causes a sudden increase in the interest rate on deposits and, in turn, increases the bank's financial cost. Thus, banks' resources are under pressure due to the balance sheet shocks from two perspectives, namely a) a decline in cash inflows from the repayment of installments and b) an increase in interest rates on household deposits. The corresponding effect of an increase on the cost of capital for the firm is the reduction of return on investment. The financial theory of the firm suggests that financing through borrowing, due to its leveraged nature, increases the return on investment. In contrast, the use of internal financing and the firm's own capital reduces the return on investment. The decline in the offered credits, due to the balance sheet shock, forces healthy firms to replace bank financing with internal financing. Firms that are in default also de-leverage their balance sheets to repay their loans and prevent bankruptcy. These two effects, as discussed in the studies of Cristiano et al. (2007), Sons and Exo (2013) and Barzina and Makarkaski (2011), simultaneously reduce the level of capital and return on investment.

Conclusions and policy implications: 

The occurrence of a balance sheet crisis disrupts the cash flow of the bank. As a result, it becomes difficult to provide resources for loans. In response, the bank compensates for its resource deficit by increasing interest paid on household deposits, which creates money and increases the money supply. Given that money supply belongs to households, a surge occurs in the impulse reaction function of household liquidity. This is a closed model of economy, which means household consumption and investment as well as firm and government expenditures constitute the demand of the whole economy. As such, the first effect of an increase in household’s liquidity is an increase in the total demand of the economy and inflation. As the impulse reaction functions suggest, consumption is greatly increased, which corresponds to an increase in inflation. The total effects of balance sheet shock on the macroeconomic variables of the country in this model have two important results. The first is a sharp drop in economic growth due to a balance sheet crisis. The second result is the rise in economic fluctuations and subsequently higher uncertainty.

In today's era, with the advent of blockchain technology and its inherent features, it is possible to finance in new ways, such as the initial coin offering for businesses, especially SMEs, to attract significant capital from all over the world has been realized. Although the legal dimensions of the recent phenomenon are not clear to the activists of this field or the governing institutions due to its emerging nature, but because of its high attractiveness, this market has always been able to increase the number of its enthusiasts in both investment and supply procedures. The recent research aims to explain the dimensions of the initial coin offering method as a new financing method in the blockchain platform, the necessity of its existence in accordance with the characteristics of SMEs as the engines of the country's growth, and to Analyze its dimensions in the current laws of the country. The findings of the recent research show that the financing of SMEs through the method of initial coin offering or the investment of those interested in this field does not contradict the explicit text of the existing upper laws, therefore in legal system of Iran's current law is capable of implementation, and in order to legitimize it, it needs to be recognized by legislative and regulatory institutions. The recognition of SMEs issuable tokens backed by the company's assets and final product by the CentralBank and the Securities and Exchange Organization makes it possible for domestic businesses to benefit from this innovative method.

From a macroeconomic perspective, the financial health of a government—and by extension, the entire country—is reflected in its debt sustainability and budget deficit. These indicators stem from the nation's public finance management (PFM) capacity. Over the past three decades, there has been significant investment in transferring financial and fiscal knowledge from advanced economies, along with adopting information technology solutions inspired by best practices and advanced economies. Despite these efforts, the results of such financial investments and the development of PFM innovations and technologies have often fallen short of expectations. This study employs the theory of 'institutional isomorphism' to explore why public finance innovations frequently yield suboptimal outcomes. It finds that the effects of institutional isomorphism are limited when the dimensions of reforms are not visible to external observers, pertain directly to the core activities of the organization, or involve a decentralized set of stakeholders who adhere to differing professional norms and derive legitimacy from various sources. This research evaluates these constraints in 76 developing countries between 2016 and 2023, controlling for political and economic factors. It concludes that PFM reform initiatives that are downstream, operational, decentralized, involve dispersed stakeholders, and have multi-year scopes are less likely to be successful, with respective odds ratios of 0.65, 0.83, 0.85, and 0.56. Conversely, initiatives involving centralized actors or overseen by such actors (through indirect citizen supervision via parliament) are more likely to enhance quality, with a higher probability of success, indicated by odds ratios of 1.32 and 1.28.

At the current time, the aggravation of the problem of stagflation in the country has caused more emphasis on all policies of the supply-side, and on top of that, the financing of entrepreneurs with an emphasis on reducing inflation. The initial coin offering method is a new method for financing businesses based on blockchain technology, which realizes the possibility of attracting high capital in a short time compared to other methods. In the meantime, small and medium-sized enterprises that, despite the need for small levels of resources, have an undeniable role in production of Countries, can be good candidates for applying this method. The explanation of this method and the identification of factors affecting its success to solve the existing information gaps can provide the process of perfect use and benefiting from its potentials. Therefore, in this article, by collecting 307 ICO in 2016 to the end of 2018, the factors influencing their success-include the characteristics of the team, project, campaign and social networks- in a cumulative process by Random Forest algorithm has been investigated. In the recent article, the total raised capital and Percentage of hard cap raised has been considered as a criterion of success in two series of separate models. By dividing the level of priority of the features into three levels, the findings show that three features of the total number of project tokens, the number of white paper pages, the clarity of the team's share of the token have the priority of level one and have the highest role in the success of an ICOs campaign.

Banking crises have been widespread in recent decades in different countries and have incurred significant costs to economies. Banking crises are highly disruptive events which lead to sustained declines in economic activity, financial intermediation, and ultimately in welfare. It is then no surprise that academics and policymakers devote significant efforts to develop models to attempt to predict crises and to design policies to resolve them and mitigate their economic impacts. Due to the weakness of other financial institutions in country, the banking system is one of the main institutions which has particular importance in Iran`s economy. Financial markets persistently confront with fluctuations in assets such as housing, gold and foreign exchange where these assets are often considered as a substitution for household deposits. Because these deposits are regarded as the most significant banks’ resources, an analysis of resource shortage impact on banks’ lending power on the one hand and the effect of lending power on macroeconomic variables such as output and inflation on the other hand makes it very important. Therefore, Banking system challenges cause substantial effects on the economy, especially if it is affected by the balance sheets crisis, it doubles its significance. This research, will explaining the crisis in the banking system of the country and its dimensions. By estimating the limits of the fictitious assets of the banking system of the country and the estimation of the balance sheets insolvency; within the framework of a model dynamic stochastic general equilibrium reviews its effects on macroeconomic variables. The results show bank loss impact growth negatively through decline in capital formation, raise in inflation and increase in firm’s capital and labor costs. It increase economic volatility respectively.

Undoubtedly, macroeconomic policies play a vital role in achieving sustainable economic development, especially during economic crises. The results of the existing studies show that most of them have focused on the role of monetary policy or fiscal policy separately; however, a combination of monetary, fiscal, exchange and trade policies and their interactions have rarely been focused on. Therefore, the present study seeks to investigate the impact of monetary, financial and currency shocks on sustainable economic development in Iran.

In order to achieve the objectives of the research, certain variables were used, including green gross national product (as an indicator of sustainable economic development), government expenditures (as an indicator of fiscal policy), exchange rate (as a currency policy), the degree of trade openness or the totality of exports and imports (as an indicator of trade policy), and wide money supply (as an indicator of monetary policy). Also, the essential data for the period of 2001-2021 were collected from the Central Bank of Iran, and then they were seasonalized. Moreover, in order to analyze the data, the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, which is logically based on economic theories, was used to apply constraints and restrictions. The SVAR model makes it possible to evaluate the impact of various dimensions of shocks caused by monetary, financial, foreign exchange and commercial policies on economic stability in Iran. Finally, the research data were analyzed by means of the Eviews software.

The results of the Phillips-Perron test for stationarity showed that the variable of commercial openness is at a stationary level and the variables of gross national green production, government expenditures, exchange rate and wide money supply are stationary after one differentiation. Also, the lowest statistical value of Schwartz-Bizen to determine the optimal interval belongs to the first interval, and the optimal interval is model 1. In addition, the statistical values ​​of both the effect test and the maximum eigenvalue are smaller than the critical values ​​at the 95% level. As a result, there is no cumulative or long-term relationship between research variables. The results showed that the monetary policy index (broad money supply) has a negative effect on the sustainable economic development index because an increase in money supply leads to a decrease in the value of the domestic currency and an increase in the price of domestic goods. This, in turn, will lead to a reduction in total demand, and production and has a negative effect on sustainable economic development. So, if a shock of 1% is introduced to the money supply, the green national gross production will decrease by 0.08% in the first period and 0.23% in the second period. After that, the effect of this shock is neutralized during the fifth period and becomes zero. Also, the financial policy index (government spending) has a positive effect on the sustainable economic development index (green national production). This happens due to an increase in the government spending which leads to a corresponding increase in investment, production, gross domestic product and eventually a high level of sustainable economic development. So, if a shock of 1% is introduced to the government's expenses, the green national gross production will increase by 0.04% in the first period, 0.11% in the second period, and 0.16% in the third period. After that, the effect of this shock is neutralized during the fourth period and becomes zero. In addition, the index of foreign exchange policy (exchange rate) negatively affects the index of sustainable economic development (GDP) because an increase in the exchange rate leads to lower values of the domestic currency and higher costs of domestic goods. This, in turn, lead to a decrease in the total demand, and production rate and has a negative effect on sustainable economic development. So, if a shock of 1% is introduced to the exchange rate, the green national gross production will decrease by 0.11% in the first period and 0.16% in the second period. Finally, since trade liberalization leads to indiscriminate imports, misallocation of financial resources, reduction of production and trade and lower levels of sustainable economic development in developing countries, the trade policy index (degree of trade openness) has a negative effect on the sustainable economic development index (green national product). Accordingly, if a shock of 1% is introduced to the degree of commercial openness, the green national gross production will decrease by 0.03% in the first period and 0.08% in the second period.

The results showed that the variables of expansionary monetary policy, exchange rate fluctuation and open trade policy have negative effects on economic sustainable development. However, expansionary financial policy can positively affect sustainable growth.  Considering the negative effect of expansionary monetary policy on sustainable economic development and due to sustainable economic sanctions, the most important priority should be given to providing resources for the banking system. To achieve sustainable economic development, government and state-owned companies are recommended to borrow less from banks, the government should pay more attention to the central bank, and the banks should be allowed to provide credit resources for productive enterprises under the supervision of the government. Also, exchange rate fluctuations have an unclear effect on sustainable economic development. Reforming the currency system and exchange rate should thus be one of the government's priorities. Due to the failure of the government to control the exchange rate during currency crises, the establishment of the currency exchange is beneficial for the economy and can prevent sudden jumps in the exchange rate. Finally, since the open trade policy has a positive effect on sustainable economic growth, a comprehensive export development program should be implemented by modifying and reinforcing both the macroeconomic environment and the institutional environment.

The entry of cryptocurrencies into the capital market and their increasing price has created a fundamental change in the international currency and monetary exchanges of the world. The present study uses data from 2015 to 2021 to investigate the relationship between causality and dynamic conditional correlation between the price variable of 9 cryptocurrencies with different creation mechanisms. The results of this study show that Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum, which have a proof-of-work mechanism, have a dynamic conditional correlation relationship in the short and long run.On the other hand, the dynamic conditional correlation coefficient of Ripple, Nano and Monero that have proof of stake mechanism and EOS, Tron and Stellar that have new consensus mechanisms were not significant in the short run but in the long run, their relationship is statistically significant. Also, there is a two-way causality relationship between the price of Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum and Monero. But among the prices of Tron, Stellar, Nano and Ripple with a newer consensus mechanism than other cryptocurrencies, there is mainly a one-way causality relationship.

Regarding the importance of knowledge-based capital in the modern economy, this paper aims to measure this kind of capital in Iran’s manufacturing sector using the exploratory factor analysis method. Data include active firms in Iran’s manufacturing sector at the 2-digit ISIC level over the period 2002-2018. The results indicate the existence of a factor in the manufacturing firms with a positive and increasing trend of knowledge-based capital accumulation. The findings also show that the accumulation of this type of capital in Iran’s manufacturing sector is in the early stages of development and highly depends on the literate labor force.

Industrial subsidies as an industrial policy, has a history as old as economics and during different periods has been employed as a supportive tool by different countries. However, effective and optimal distribution of these subsidies has always been a crucial problem for planning and policy making. In this regard, the current study while examining industrial subsidies from theoreticaland empirical aspects, a model is provided for allocating industrial subsidies to 31 provinces of the country according to four effective criteria. For this purpose, the study has employed ZSG-DEA model which is a combination of the data envelopment analysis with game theory. The results of the proposed model which determine the optimal share of each province, indicate that Tehran province with 23.25 percent share has the highest optimal share and Ilam, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad provinces with 0.2 percent share have the lowest optimal share of industrial subsidies. After determining the optimal share of support funds in each province, it is suggested that the method of payment of these support resources to the provinces be determined according to the effects of different types of support and type of industries in each province.

One of the words that is heard in the present life is digital currency Digital currency is a component of a decentralized financial system to facilitate economic transactions through evicting intermediaries such as banks as much as possible. In the meantime cryptocurrency is a digital or virtual currency that is secured by cryptography and made nearly impossible to counterfeit or double-spend. In the early 1990s, some elite people intended to give more freedom to the people through the use of the Internet and reduce the power of governments. The main goal of these elites was to empower people to control money and information and to simply eliminate intermediaries such as banks. Templates based on time series equations are a new type of economic modelling that dates back to the early 1970s. Time series patterns include a wide range of economic patterns, the most important of which is the vector auto regression pattern. Time series equations can be extracted in two ways, including a method of inference from theory and then modelling according to the researcher and the relevant statistical tests to determine the accuracy of the model and the estimated parameters. This type of modelling faces several problems such as unstructured parameters, structural shock detection, and specification error. Due to the nature of partial equilibrium, they sometimes have difficulty understanding the economic conditions and erroneous predictions. The problems are due to the difference between the model and the economic theory. To solve these problems, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (abbreviated as DSGE, or DGE, or sometimes SDGE) models were used. This kind of modelling is a macroeconomic method often employed by monetary and fiscal authorities for policy analysis, explaining historical time-series data as well as future forecasting purposes. The present study has used the DSGE method to estimate the model. In this model, it is assumed that households gain utility from consumption, government currency and cryptocurrency, and labor supply has inutility for those households. Therefore, they try to maximize its utility by using their budget constraint. Another part of this study is the entrepreneurial section (cryptocurrency miners), which assumes that there is a continuous chain of entrepreneurs denoted by n, and that each entrepreneur operates under conditions of perfect competition. The third part is the manufacturing firm, which assumes that firms are different in an exclusive competitive environment for the production of intermediate goods and have access to other intermediate goods of other firms to produce a final product under perfectly competitive market conditions. The last section is the central bank, which determines the monetary policies governing the society. In this study, it is assumed that the central bank uses the nominal interest rate as a rule set in a modified Taylor (1993) model. This model is estimated using the monthly data of Iran, and the results show that there is a strong substitution effect between the government currency real balance and the cryptocurrency real balance in response to technology, preferences and monetary policy shocks. In addition, government currency demand shocks have a greater impact on the economy than the cryptocurrency demand. Cryptocurrency productivity shocks also lead to a decline in the nominal exchange rate. Production and inflation decrease when nominal interest rates increase. However, the effects of these shocks are much less than those of traditional shocks. Overall, this study provides new insights and evidence on the underlying mechanisms of cryptocurrency and its effects on the economy. It can be a guide for investors, policymakers, central bankers and researchers as how to operate cryptocurrencies and the corresponding ecosystem in the future. In particular, two policy recommendations emerge from the analysis of this study. First, according to the results, it was shown that increasing the supply of cryptocurrencies has a negative effect on production. Thus, monetary authorities may decide to adjust the rates in response to the changes in the cryptocurrency real balance, which include the weight for cryptocurrency growth, as a policy response. Second, if the central bank is to prevent a decline in output, the nominal interest rate response to the changes in government currency growth must be gradual. Furthermore, there is a strong alternating effect between the real money balance and the real money code balance in response to technology, preferences and monetary policy shocks. As the important finding of the study, the increase in production and inflation is greater when cryptocurrency is not present in exchanges, indicating that more inflation exists when there is no cryptocurrency.

The aim of this paper is the analysis of trade shocks on tradable and non-tradable employment. To do so, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is designed for Iran economy and the sectors of model are tradable, non-tradable and import. The variables related to foreign trade sector are nominal and real exchange rate, the law of one price gap and terms of trade. The structural parameters of this model is estimated by using Bayesian method and quarterly data on the 1383 – 1398 period. Based on estimation results, occurring a positive terms of trade shock leads to an increase in the employment of import sector but reduction in tradable and non-tradable sectors employment. Moreover, a positive shock of real exchange rate leads to a reduction in the employment of all sectors. Thereby, the policy recommendation of recent study is that the central bank should adjust its policy tool actively in responses to trade and exchange rate shocks in order to minimize its negative effects on the output and employment.

Financial institutions, especially the banking system, play a key role in the economic system; on the one hand, they provide economic growth and development and on the other hand, they may lead to the conditions of disorder and collapse in an economic system. Therefore, the existence of an efficient and stable banking system to prevent or reduce the likelihood of financial and consequently economic crisis is critical. For this reason, Western governments try to affect our economy through financial sanctions. This increases the business risk and costs of the banking system and economic activists, disrupting all international businesses and financial transactions. sanctions as an external shock can potentially have destabilizing effects on the financial system, especially on the banking system and consequently the economy of a country (in terms of revenue and expenditure). In contrast, some economists believe that sanctions do not affect Iran's banking system. In this case, the inefficiency of Iran's banking system regarding international regulations, as well as high credit risk at the international level, is pseudo-sanctioned, causing the unwillingness of foreign banks to cooperate with Iran. Due to this disagreement, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of banking sanctions and their channels on the financial instability of Iran banks using the Z-score index.

To obtain the purposes of this research, a hypothesis has been formulated that bank sanctions have a significant negative effect on banks' financial stability. To test the hypothesis, the financial data relating to a sample of 18 Iranian banks are collected for the period 2007-2017. Dynamic panel data approach especially two-stage system-generalized method (SYS-GMM) is used. This can dynamically present the results with less error.Specifying research model The model is specified based on Kayaza et al. (2014) as follows: In this model i: Banks, t: time, α: intercept and b: the coefficients of the explanatory variables, banking stability index: (Z). Dummy Variable Sanctions: (SANC), Credit Risk: (CR), Liquidity Risk: (LR), Market Risk: (MR), Inefficiency: (INEFFI), Bank Size: (size), GDP per capita: (GDP), Inflation rate: (INF), current account (DCA).

Sanctions have a significant negative effect on the banking stability of Iran. In addition, inefficiency, credit risk, and liquidity have led to a decline in bank stability but the size of the bank and market risk have a significant positive effect on banking stability. Also, inflation and GDP have significant negative effects and the current account is significantly positively associated with banking stability.

The research hypothesis, that sanctions have a significant negative effect on the stability of Iranian banks, can not be rejected. It may be interpreted that banking sanctions lead to international invalidity and increase the credit risk, resulting in banking instability due to increasing financial costs through bypassing sanctions and finance at a higher cost. Therefore, the central bank is recommended to adopt policies to reinforce the banking system against sanctions, including the use of a SWIFT's alternative messenger system or new financial technologies, especially Blockchain and digital currencies with decentralized supervision.

Dependency of Iranian Economy on oil revenues has provided conditions for imposing further sanctions on Iran. One way for Iran to get rid of sanctions is to sell its oil in currencies other than US dollar. In this regard, this article evaluates the risks for Iran if it, in selling oil, substitutes US dollar with currencies of its oil importing countries. We firstly apply Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR) models on Yuan and Rupee data for the period of 1990:01-2019:05 as well as on Euro data for the period of 1999:01-2019:05 and then based on the estimated models, forecast losses and gains for the period of 2019:06-2021:12 if Iran sells oil to China, India and Europe and receive payments respectively in Yuan, Rupee and Euro. Our forecasts indicate that selling oil to India and China and receiving oil revenue in Rupee and Yuan respectively will significantly decrease value of oil exports in range of 5-23 percent due to very likely devaluation of these currencies vs. the US dollar. Therefore, Iran must firstly use in its oil transaction relevant diplomacy with its oil importing countries, requesting them to share in risks of devaluation of their currencies vs. US dollar. Secondly, as a particular example, this article shows that political decisions may bring in economic consequences for the country. Therefore, Iranian authorities are expected to consider economic consequences of their political decisions more seriously and with sufficient transparency.

Efficiency is a fundamental concept in economics and is applied in various economic areas. In microeconomics, efficiency has a particular role in consumption and production. The focus of this article is on production efficiency, which itself consists of many kinds. In the economics literature, the important question is that how much the current economic situation is away from the efficient situation and, in other words, what the extent of inefficiency is. Statistical facts and evidence clearly show that the Islamic Republic of Iran's economy suffers from a relatively high level of inefficiency in its various sectors, which can be induced from different factors including big size of the public sector, governmental controls in various economic sectors, deviation of domestic relative prices from the world relative prices, untargeted protective system, old technologies, widespread corruption, and economic rents and lack of competitiveness of domestic outputs. Although economic justice should not be sacrificed for increasing efficiency, it seems that the efficiency itself has been sacrificed during the last four decades of IR Iran's economic life. The economy has not been on the right path to deliver sustainable economic growth. Too much emphasis on the issue of economic justice in the last two decades and ignoring the issue of efficiency have been misleading. It seems that the investigation of efficiency in various economic sectors and identification of its determinants are essential for future financial planning. Various kinds of efficiency cannot be dealt with in one article. For this reason, the purpose of this paper is to estimate resource allocation inefficiency in the Iranian industrial sector.  

For this purpose, we calculate in the first stage the deviations in each sub-sector of the industry. Then in the second stage, we estimate inefficiencies in 23 industries with two-digit ISIC codes over 1374-1393. 

The empirical results derived from the stochastic frontier function show that the industry's efficiency in the production sector is about 60 percent.  Also, due to increasing returns to scale in the Iranian industry, marginal and average production costs are decreasing, and production does not occur in economic areas.  Therefore, firms operating in Iranian industries are not profit maximizers and have not reached an efficient production scale. Our estimated stochastic frontier function also shows that the labor force is an essential part of efficiency deviation in our calculations.  Therefore, it is necessary to promote labor quality through learning-by-doing as well as technical and professional education to increase their share and create incentives.  

This aim can be reached by linking labor force compensation and wages to its productivity. Also, it is necessary to investigate and evaluate the influential factors causing inefficiency in various economic sectors to design economic policies to eliminate or at least reduce these factors.

The 2007 financial crisis clearly demonstrate the role of capital assets in the emergence of economic fluctuations and business cycles. Physical assets with a dual role as a factor in production and use as collateral to obtain loans from the banking system in two separate channels affect the real sector of the economy and lead to intensification of product fluctuations and business cycles. Emprical evidence of Iran’s economy indicates that the price of capital assets has been rising and fluctuating over time for various reasons, the most important of which are the role of oil revenues and related shocks. Accordingly, with regard to the collateral effect channel, there is an expectation that by creating a positive oil shock and increasing oil revenues, government spending and, consequently, liquidity, the price of private equity assets, as a acceptable collateral for the banking system, will increase. This issue will lead to an increase in the amount of loans received by the private sector, the volume of investment and output. For this purpose, this study has examined this important issue using data related to the period of 1966- 2017 of the Iranian economy and the model of structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR). The results of the model confirm the effect of collateral in short periods. Therefore, it is suggested that if the policymaker seeks to stabilize the product in the short term, then it is necessary to adopt an appropriate countercyclical policy on how to pay loans to the private sector in order to control the volume of private sector investment and stabilize the output.

The purpose of this paper detecting the variables affecting on Bitcoin price using daily Time series data from 2015 to 2019 invoking two method of Bayesian model Averaging and Weighted-Average Least Square. The results of this study show that the price variables of cryptocurrencies with different creation mechanisms from Bitcoin and also the number of circulating cryptocurrencies with similar mechanism to Bitcoin and the volume of liquidity of US dollars affect the price of Bitcoin. On the other hand, the Forex market currency pairs, such as the dollar to Canadian dollar, the dollar to Australian dollar and the dollar to New Zealand dollar, which are less valuable than other major currency pairs in the Forex market, affect the price of Bitcoin. Also, the variables in the number of bitcoins, the number of cryptocurrencies in circulation with a different mechanism from bitcoin, the global price of gold and the number of searches for the word bitcoin in Google on its price have low coefficients. Overall, the results of the two methods of Bayesian averaging and Weighted Averaging Least Square are largely the same, and the use of the optimal pattern selection method confirms this.