دکتر ایوب نیکونهاد

The identity issue of Iranian society has gone through many ups and downs throughout history. Among the different elements of identity, religion has been the most important identity-giving element and factor of cohesion and unity in Iranian society. Since about two centuries ago, the confrontation with the different identity of Western modernity has turned religious identity into a challenging issue, and the rapid cultural and social changes of the contemporary world have raised the question of the future of religious identity more and more.The main question of this research is what are the future scenarios of the religious identity of the Iranian society? The research approach is exploratory using the scenario writing tool based on the Petershwartz model; After identifying the drivers based on the opinions of 5 experts, the situation of each of them was analyzed and then the future scenarios of religious identity were drawn. The tool of data analysis is the use of MikMak software.The findings of the research show that the four drivers of globalization, new communication media, governance and macroeconomic issues are the key drivers influencing the future of religious identity in Iran, and from the interaction of the resulting uncertainties It is also possible to draw four scenarios for the future of religious identity in Iranian society.

One of the types of threats to political systems that can face serious challenges to the national security of countries in the medium and long term is socio-cultural threats. These types of threats, according to the type and components of their measurement, are among the threats that neglecting them in the medium term can have surprising and destructive effects on the social security and even the national security of the countries in the long term. This research seeks to answer these questions: what are the socio-cultural threats facing the Islamic Republic of Iran in the five-year horizon? Based on the criteria for measuring the occurrence of threats, what is the probability of their occurrence in the future horizon? What measures should be taken in the face of these threats? The mixed research approach is exploratory and two methods of environmental survey of texts (books, articles, reports, etc.) and expert questionnaire were used to collect information. Its statistical population is 10 scientific and academic experts whose opinions were obtained by preparing an expert questionnaire. The findings of the research show that in addition to common and conventional cultural and social threats, there are 9 major and priority threats, reduction of social capital, economic and social corruption, weakening of national identity, ethnic and religious challenges, social and economic gaps,Decrease in the level of human development, change in lifestyle, increase in social damage and cognitive-perceptual war are the most important threats to the Islamic Republic of Iran in the five-year horizon.

Trust is known as one of the important and fundamental capitals in a society, which is the basis for cooperation and cooperation between the members of the society and the government and the people. Public trust as one of the important aspects of trust is essential for the success and progress of governments, strengthening public trust and increasing it in the society will lead to reducing conflicts and increasing various types of participation in order to improve the functioning of the governance system. Identifying the key drivers affecting public trust in the system of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is the main goal of this research, can provide the basis for planning and forecasting in the field of public trust for the country's policy-making system.In fact, the research seeks to answer the question, what are the key drivers that shape the future of public trust in the Islamic Republic of Iran? The approach of the research is exploratory and by using the future research method based on kinematics and the use of Mic Mac software, it analyzed the data and identified the key kinematics. The research findings from the software show that the drivers of accountability and transparency, the efficiency of the political system, social justice, and class divisions have the greatest impact on the future of public trust in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The normative and structural limitations of the international system, along with the policies of the Western bloc towards Iran over the past four decades, have led the Islamic Republic of Iran to adopt an "orientalist" approach in its defense-security and foreign policies. This research aims to explore the potential consequences of defense-security cooperation between Iran and Russia during the Ukraine crisis for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Utilizing a descriptive-analytical methodology, data were collected through environmental surveys, as well as reviews of relevant articles, books, reports, and notes. The gathered information was categorized and subsequently analyzed by the researchers. The defense-security collaboration between Iran and Russia presents both positive and negative implications for Iran. On the positive side, this partnership could facilitate joint economic initiatives to mitigate further global isolation, foster interaction and coordination in the transition of power from the West to the East, enhance Iran's military capabilities, and strengthen its deterrence posture. Conversely, potential negative impacts include exacerbating internal divisions between the nation and the government due to historical skepticism regarding Russian actions, tightening sanctions, the securitization of military cooperation, and reinforcing the perception of Iran as a destabilizing force in international peace and security.

Countries play a role based on three components, internal power, role-playing within regional systems and intelligent acting in the international environment in order to achieve a better and more favorable position in the international system. It is necessary to play a correct role in the field of regional equations, strategic environmentalism based on accepted criteria. As long as an actor achieves a correct and principled understanding of herself and the regional environment in which she is placed, her activism cannot be principled and regular and in line with its vital interests and goals; Therefore, achieving strategic environmentalism and choosing the right strategy in various situations in facing foreign policy issues is one of the main requirements for governments to play a role in the future.

The current research was carried out with the aim of "strategic environmentalism and strategic assessment of Iran's role in the Middle East region" using the SWOT analysis model. This research is fundamental in terms of purpose and mixed in terms of method, and data collection has been done by two methods of environmental survey of texts and also by using expert questionnaire.

The findings of the research show that the assessment and evaluation of Iran's position in the regional environment is in a defensive state but improving, but internal weaknesses and external threats have created extensive limitations in the direction of taking advantage of the strengths and opportunities for Iran's active role in the regional environment

One of the fundamental necessities, based on the goals of the Islamic Revolution, is theorizing to realize the "New Islamic Civilization" and formulating strategies for "Iran's Dignity" in the "Global Historical Turn." According to the theories presented, whose scientific authority is Ayatollah Khamenei, processes have been defined to establish an Islamic government and ultimately achieve the aforementioned goal. As emphasized by Ayatollah Khamenei, the main step in the civilizational movement of the Islamic Revolution at the current stage is the establishment of an Islamic government. In this regard, the issuance of the Statement of the Second Phase of the Revolution has sought to outline a vision for this objective. The aim of this research is to extract the indicators of an ideal and benchmark government of the Islamic Revolution in both value-based and behavioral dimensions, focusing on regional and international levels. In this context, the characteristics of an ideal and benchmark government aligned with the discourse of the Statement of the Second Phase of the Revolution have been examined. The results of this research, conducted using descriptive-analytical methods and library tools through document analysis, indicate that the most important characteristics of the benchmark government of the Revolution at the regional and Islamic world levels include: unity-seeking and peace advocacy, being the "Umm al-Qura" (central nation) and modeling an Iranian-Islamic paradigm, security-building, and supporting resistance. At the international level, the behavioral indicators include: adherence to the principles of dignity, wisdom, and expediency, anti-hegemonic independence-seeking, ethical orientation, and commitment to international agreements and obligations.

Cognitive warfare is the fifth generation of wars in the popular political and military literature in the world, where the three main goals are social collapse, structural collapse and territorial collapse, through the two main strategies of destabilization and targeted infiltration, using a set of convergent technologies follow. The solution to confront the cognitive war in the field of social sciences and social psychology is cognitive preparation, cognitive empowerment or cognitive improvement of the citizens of a society and country, which the Supreme Leader of the Revolution, relying on native and Islamic literature, called it "Jihad of Explanation" or "Enlightenment Movement". The purpose of this research is to design and explain the conceptual model of cognitive warfare and the basic model of explanatory jihad in dealing with cognitive warfare. The research approach is exploratory and the research method is content analysis using library documents and the statements and guidelines of the Supreme Leader. The findings of the research show that if the explanatory jihad is carried out in a correct and principled way, it can be useful as an effective solution in facing and dealing with the cognitive war in the dimension of cognitive psychology and cognitive sociology and lead to the strengthening of social unity and restoration of public trust. After analyzing the concept and presenting a theoretical model of cognitive warfare in the context of a set of converging technologies, an explanation has been made regarding the design of the model and the optimal illustration of the problem of Jihad, taken from the intellectual system of the Supreme Leader of the Revolution, and in the final part of the research, suggestions have been made. And strategic prescriptions regarding dealing with cognitive warfare have been presented at the level of cognitive sociology.

The centrality of the discourse of the Islamic Revolution of Iran as one of the biggest popular revolutions of the 20th century and in a sense the first post-modernist revolution has been based on a critical thought in domestic and international dimensions. In fact, the Islamic revolution by challenging and criticizing the concepts and teachings of the modern world, such as the emergence of modern man with a new identity, the rule of macro-narratives, and the one-line narrative of history and development, which formed the basis of the discourse of modernism, and by rereading and breaking the foundations of these categories and creating an epistemological break, has opened a new horizon among the theories of revolutions and the development path of societies. The present research seeks to answer the question that in a comparative comparison, can the phenomenon of the Islamic Revolution in the field of attitude towards the international system be equated with the critical theory of the Frankfurt School? The research method is based on the comparative analysis and its tools are based on the available documentary resources based on the goals, slogans, views and readings of the leaders of the Islamic Revolution. The findings of the research show that despite the verbal and expressive similarities between the slogans and goals and views of the Islamic revolution and critical theory, the epistemology and methodology of the Islamic revolution and critical theory cannot be the same and in terms of the meaning of theses two schools, each of them is a unique worlview and discourse.

There are many critical and controversial geographic regions in the Asian, some of which are the legacy of British colonialism. Each of these areas has the capacity to turn into a full-scale conflict region. Kashmir is one of the regions that has been the place of conflict between the governments of the South Asian region (India-Pakistan and China) for more than seventy years, and the dispute between India and Pakistan over the Kashmir region has caused three wars in 1948, 1965, and1971. The current research seeks to answer the question; what scenarios can be drawn for the future of the Kashmir crisis? This article has answered this question by using the method of actor interest analysis (beneficiary) - which is one of the relatively new methods in the science of future research. The findings of the research show that based on the interests of the main actors and participants in the crisis, the scenarios of referendum for Kashmir independence, maintaining the status quo, joining India, joining Pakistan, the possibility of an all-out war between India and Pakistan and the outbreak of civil war in Kashmir was drawn. The most possible realistic situation that can be imagined for the future of the Kashmir region is the continuation of the status quo (uncertainty of the Kashmir region) or the increase of tensions between the two countries of India and Pakistan and, accordingly, Radical movements will be taken by popular and Muslim movements and movements inside Kashmir.

World politics has entered a new phase of its life after the collapse of the bipolar system. Due to the complexity and increasing uncertainties of the international environment, the failure of unilateralism and the relative decline of hegemony, diversity in formal and informal actors, theoretical, conceptual and semantic differences in international relations and the emergence of emerging powers have added to the chaos of this environment. Contemplation of what the future of international order will look like after the transition period and what place countries and emerging powers will have in it is one of the most important theoretical issues and debates among scholars and politicians. All countries want to achieve a more desirable position and a greater share to play a role in the future of the international system. The present study seeks to answer the question that based on the perspectives and narratives about the future of world order and based on the convergence and divergence between the emerging and traditional powers of the international system, which disciplines will be more desirable in the future of the international system, and what are the preferred scenarios for the future of the international order?The research has a futures research approach using the analysis of the structure and strategy of the actors and the data analysis has been done through the Maker software. The statistical population of the study includes 25 university experts who have been selected by purposive non-random sampling.The research findings indicate that although the future of international order is ambiguous due to the complexity and fluidity of the environment and numerous uncertainties, based on the activism of emerging powers in interacting and competing with traditional powers, the tendency of the actors indicates the emergence of a multipolar, multicenter system and world regions more than other perspectives.

In the last few centuries in the Islamic world, Islamic awakening campaigns have led to huge movements at different periods of time by reformists and Muslim nations.  Since 2010 Islamic awakening which is the starting point Tunisia and the overthrow of its dictatorial system by Zain al-Abdin bin Ali caused many of the Arab dictatorial political systems in the Islamic world to undergo domino-like transformation and collapse. In some countries, these uprisings were accompanied by violent suppression of political systems, and in some other countries, despite the presence of conditions for the desired outcome of these uprisings, these movements did not reach their ultimate goal, which is to change for the benefit of nations and establishment of democratic systems. One of the reasons for the failure of the Islamic awakening is the identity conflicts and divergences, the roots of which go back to historical and sociological issues in the Islamic world. The present study, with a descriptive-analytical approach, intends to answer these questions, what are the roots of identity conflicts and divergences in the Islamic world from the perspective of historical sociology; how these conflicts have affected the deviation of Islamic awakening in the last decade in the Islamic world. The research results show the petrified readings of religion and the growth of religious extremism, Arab ethnicity and sectarianism, the influence of foreign ideas in the Islamic world and the growth of eclectic thinking, the weakness of rationality in creating a common religious identity and existence conflict between national and religious loyalties, etc. are among the most important roots and influential factors in identity conflicts and deviation in Islamic awakening.

The issue of unity has been a strategic concern for the Islamic world over the past few decades. This issue is influenced by various causes and factors, with stakeholders holding differing opinions on goals and strategies. This research aims to address the following question: Who are the key actors promoting unity in the Islamic world? What strategies do these actors employ? What are the unifying factors within the Islamic world? What strategies are available to the actors that influence unity in the Islamic world? To address the questions posed above, we utilized the method of analyzing the structure and strategies of actors, along with the MECTOR software tool. This means that, initially, a targeted environmental survey of texts and sources was conducted, utilizing the perspectives of influential figures. This process identified the key actors impacting the unity of the Islamic world (15 actors) and the strategies associated with their objectives (13 strategies) for achieving that unity. Subsequently, an expert questionnaire measured the extent of the actors' influence on one another and their positions regarding the established goals. Their views were then analyzed. The research findings indicate that the involvement of regional and international actors, along with the conflicting interests of each influential party regarding convergence and unity in the Islamic world, has complicated the pursuit of unity, rendering it increasingly elusive. The most effective strategies the Islamic world can adopt to achieve unity are institution-building and establishing an Islamic common market. By aligning economic interests with these institutional developments, the Islamic world can advance to a new stage of unity.

The fluidity of the environment and the speed of developments in the field of regional and global politics over the past decade have caused the emergence of some emerging threats that, in the absence of foresight, can affect both national interests and become a source of security threats for the republic Islamic of Iran. Identifying emerging threats in various fields and providing solutions regarding them is a fundamental issue for the policy making system of countries because the changes in the domestic, regional and international environments have caused changes in the operational environment and interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran. and threats to national security. The general approach of this research is exploratory (future-study) which was carried out using a mixed method. In this research, in addition to using the environmental survey of texts to identify the macrotrends that shape emerging threats, 10 experts, researchers and academic elites of the country have been used to identify the drivers and emerging threats affecting the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The findings of the research show that the most important emerging threats in the field of foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran can be the weakening of the security-oriented realist order, fragile governments and the decay of the region, exploitation of bioterrorism by official and unofficial actors, hydro political conflicts, etc.

. This study identifies, analyzes and explains the structural divergence and convergence among the influential actors in the Middle East region through a semi-structured and expert questionnaire and using the software tool of Mactor, seeks to answer the question of how the future patterns of Middle East order will be in the future? Among the patterns of regional order,the preferred scenario for power is blocs change or continuity? The research findings indicate that a wide range of scenarios can be proposed regarding regional order, but the most probable scenario is instability and change in regional order and moving from a bipolar order pattern to a multipolar model in this region.

One of the future research methods to understand the convergence and divergence between actors is the method of structural analysis or actors' strategy. This method, which is in the category of quantitative futures research methods and is done through Mactor software, is a multi-subject-multiplayer model and is used when there are several actors in front of a number of subjects whose evolution in the future is uncertain and difficult to predict. The purpose of these models is to gain a better understanding of these situations and how they evolve by calculating and considering the interests and goals of different stakeholders and the relationships between them. The method of structural analysis and actor strategy consists of six main steps: identifying key variables (setting goals), identifying effective actors in the environment, forming a matrix of actors-objectives, forming a matrix of actors-actors, entering data into the matrix, processing and outputting the model

Software analysis of actors' perspectives and their goals reveals several basic goals:1. Despite the influence of actors on each other regarding the future of order in the Middle East, there is a conflict of interest between the actors regarding regional issues. The conflict of interests of the actors has led to a conflict in their goals in the Middle East regional order, and this conflict of interests and goals has shaken the current patterns of order in the region.
2. The majority of actors in the region and beyond, whose activism has a significant impact on the equations of the Middle East order, do not consider the current order model, ie the bipolar balance between the Salafi order led by Saudi Arabia and the revolutionary resistance order led by Iran, as their preferred order. In fact, the formation and consolidation of this order in the past decades in the Middle East has been caused by emergencies in the region, and regional and trans-regional actors have been forced to accept this pattern due to special historical circumstances. In the current situation and the complexity of international and regional developments during the transition period, each of these actors seeks to create their own role and status in the region and the cycle of global power; Therefore, it is natural for the actors in this region today to consider the current order as an imposed order and to move towards changing the current order.
3. If the existing bipolar regional order continues, the costs of other regional and trans-regional actors in balancing power will increase. Claimants of regional power in the Middle East in today's region, which has become much more diverse than in previous decades, and each of these actors who today see themselves as a regional power, their role-playing is overshadowed by two poles of regional powerand they have to play in the direction of these two spectrums of regional power in order to influence the regional equations.
4. Intra-regional and supra-regional actors seek a multipolar balance through instability in the region and changes in the construction of the current pattern. The preferred model of actors within the region, who today play a lesser role in the equations of this region, is the model of multipolar order, and in the next stage, if this order is not realized, they will follow the model of regional participatory collective order. However, for trans-regional actors, the model of regional participatory collective order is not desirable at all because it reduces their impact on regional equations and brings the region to a model of relative stability. In the model of a multipolar order, regional instability increases in the light of tensions and conflicts, and each power bloc will seek its own advantages, which will increase the involvement of transregional powers in regional equations.

are among the current characteristics of the regional and international environment. It is natural to change the patterns of regional order in the context of the transition to world order. What is unnatural is the lack of awareness of countries of their position in the set of regional order and global trends, And the principles of tools and capacities at the disposal of countries and provide an effective platform for regional and global competitors, which will lead to the loss of the position of countries in the future of regional and global order. Because one of the foundations of countries' role-playing in future global equations is to consolidate and consolidate their position within the regional order. In the general answer to the research questions, it can be said that according to the analysis of the available data, the patterns of regional order will change and the continuation of the existing order will be very costly even for the bipolar power of the regions. In contrast, Saudi Arabia tends to maintain the existing order and then the hegemony of the desired order, and Turkey and the supporters of the Ekhwans are also seeking to formalize their regional order through instability in the developments and patterns of regional order, and the transition to a bipolar order will be the only way to revive the Ekhwan. Trends and events indicate that the regional order is on the verge of change, and the actors of the regional order must adjust their policies and actions to the new conditions.

media literacy in the Iranian society has caused many harms and threats in political, social and ... dimensions. And the current research seeks to identify and prioritize the most important injuries and threats in this field. Therefore, the research question is: What is the disadvantages and threats of media literacy poverty in Iranian society and what is its priority? In this study, the scrolling method was used and was obtained by the questionnaire tool, the opinion of 40 communications experts, media management, media literacy and security issues. According to the results, political threats are more prominent than other threats, and polarization of social space, reducing citizens' political confidence in the Islamic Republic of Iran and other cases are the most important threats. To address these threats, solutions such as timely and comprehensive

The flourishing of political parties and currents is one of the signs of the degree of development in societies. In contemporary Iran and since the formation of the constitutional movement, political currents have gone through many ups and downs and it can be said that political currents in Iran after the Islamic Revolution have not yet reached the stage of institutionalization and stability. A characteristic feature of political currents in Iran is the divergence and division among political currents in recent decades, and this can be one of the reasons for the instability and cross-sectional and seasonal activity of political parties in Iran. Therefore, the necessity of leading research seeks to answer the question of how factors and divergence among political currents in Iran after the victory of the Islamic Revolution can be analyzed? And what are the scenarios for the advancement of political currents in Iran? To answer this question, the method of causal-layer analysis, which is one of the qualitative methods in futures research, has been used. The research findings indicate that this divergence is due to a wide range of reasons from the level of causal systems (from the institutionalization of power to the formation of parties as elitist initiatives), worldview and discourse (from charismatic political authority to culture). Subsidiary-follower politics to myth-metaphor (Iranian individualism to belief in a strong state-weak society) can be analyzed. Three scenarios for the future of Iranian political currents can be considered: integration of currents as the security valve of the political system, the collapse of political currents in the traditional form, integration and consolidation in new social movements (virtualized parties).

The statement of the second step of the revolution is one of the documents that have provided the necessary grounds for theorizing about the issues of today and the future of the Islamic Revolution. Numerous issues with the approach of civilization vision in the heart of the discourse of the second step statement have been raised by the Supreme Leader of the Revolution, including the issue of foreign policy and how Iran deals with regional and international issues. The present study intends to analyze and explain the foreign policy issue of the Islamic Republic of Iran based on the theory of realistic idealism in accordance with the text of the statement of the second step of the revolution and to examine the results and application data of this theory. In this regard, first the theoretical foundations of idealism and realism are examined and then the model of realistic idealism is drawn. Then, using the content analysis method of the second step statement and coding foreign policy issues, the characteristics of idealism and realism are calculated. Findings show that although the discourse principles of the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran are consistent with the logic of idealism But the performance, results and outputs of Iran's foreign policy can be analyzed and interpreted within the framework of realism theory, and there is no contradiction between idealism as opinion and realism as practice. The analysis of the statement of the second step of the revolution as one of the late strategic documents in the field of foreign policy confirms this claim and the Iranian foreign policy system can be considered as "realistic idealism".

After the Islamic Revolution, one of the most stable models of regional order in the Middle East, has been the competition between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia. However, one cannot speak of fully establishing this pattern of bipolar order in the Middle East. And the Middle East regional order may change dramatically over the next ten years. The present study seeks to answer the main question of what the future scenarios of regional order in the Middle East will be like by 2030,and what is the favorable scenario for the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia under these patterns of regional order?In order to provide answers to the questions with a futuristic approach, the method of identifying and analyzing the impulses affecting the formation of regional order and identifying weak surprises and weak markers was used through interviewing experts using Mick Mac software. The research findings consistent with the effect of key drivers and analysis of power blockades in this region indicate that a wide range of scenarios can be proposed regarding the Middle East regional order,but the most desirable order for Iran is the hegemony of the revolutionary order and the most probable scenario for the Islamic Republic is the continuation of the balance of power scenario in this region. In contrast, the most favorable scenario for the pro-Western order is the hegemony of the Western-Salafi order and the most probable scenario for the pro-Western order is the continuation of the balance of power scenario.

Although in the current situation in the West Asian region is known as one of the main centers of crisis in world politics, but due to the existence of suitable grounds for the spread of Islamic extremist ideas in areas such as Central Asia, this issue is likely to become one of the centers of crisis on a large scale in the future. The present study seeks to answer the questions: What are the main grounds for the spread of Islamic extremism and radicalism in the Central Asian region? What scenarios can be considered for the expansion of the activities of extremist groups in the Central Asian region? Regarding the geopolitical situation of these countries and their proximity to the borders of the Islamic Republic of Iran, what strategies can be put on the agenda to counter the growth of extremism in this region and prevent the dangers of its growth for the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran? The tool for answering the questions will be a combination of causal layer analysis and scenario writing. The findings of the study indicate that the growth of Islamic radicalism and its similarity with Takfiri-jihadi thought in the future sphere of the region, has turned it into one of the scenarios with high certainty and probability of occurrence. Iran's geographical proximity to Central Asia causes the threat to extend into Iranian territory.

One of the most complex issues in the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran since the victory of the revolution until now has been how to deal with and how to regulate the interaction between Iran and the United States in the regional environment and the international system. Increasing or decreasing the conflicts between the two countries has a logical and significant relationship with a set of interrelated factors, which means that in order to find a solution to reduce conflicts and contradictions, the basic variables must be coordinated within the two countries and in the international environment. In the present study, we seek to answer the question of what scenarios can be drawn for the future of Iran-US relations in the next five years between 2022 and 2027?The tool to answer this question is to use a scenario-based approach to assumption, which is one of the exploratory approaches in scenario writing and based on evidence, creativity and expertise, and by identifying possible assumption of relations between the two countries And the United States, through brainstorming, using the panel of experts and categorizing them, scenarios have been extracted, and the realization of any scenario will depend on the existence of hypotheses that need to occur.The research findings indicate that based on the existing variables and hypotheses, the preferred scenario ahead is increased competition and hostility and possible and probable scenarios, conditional and limited interaction, and reconciliation scenario.It can be concluded that the weight of warning signs is much higher than the shaping measures, load-bearing assumptions and actions that insure the Iran-US relationship, so managing tensions in bilateral relations should be a priority for policymakers in both countries.

Political Participation in democratic political systems are one of the basic pillars of governance and determining the general orientation. In such a way that the stability of the political system as well as the successful passage of political crises that political systems may face depends on the elections, the level of people's participation and its results. Given the importance of the issue, theis research with a futuristic approach seeks to answer the question of what are the main drivers and influences on the future of Political Participation in Iran and, of course, what scenarios can be drawn for the future of Political Participation in Iran? To answer this question and identify the drivers, in the first stage, the Delphi questionnaire was used and 10 academic and executive experts were selected to answer. After Delphi and the consensus of experts, among the 30 identified drivers, 15 main and effective drivers were selected by experts. In the second stage, after receiving the opinion of experts and numerical evaluation of the drivers and weighing them, in the cross-sectional analysis table of the drivers, using Mick Mac software, the data were analyzed and scenarios were drawn

The invasion of the Arab-Western coalition (centered on Saudi Arabia) has made the Yemeni scene one of the most complex crises in the West Asian region. The final outcome of the Yemeni crisis, while having a significant impact on shaping the security order in the future of the West Asian region, will also determine the country's position in the future equations of the region. The main feature of this crisis is the multiplicity of actors involved and the conflict of stakeholders' demands.With due attention to the strategic position of Yemen in regional and world politics and the possession of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, each of the actors is trying to steer Yemen in the direction of its desired scenarios. In fact, each of the influential actors in Yemen, based on their interests and values, considers a favorable situation (scenario) for Yemen, while this scenario can be considered for the other actor an unfavorable and threatening scenario. The present study seeks to answer the questions: What are the main uncertainties of the Yemeni crisis? And with regards to the uncertainties of the Yemeni crisis, what scenarios can be imagined for the Yemen's position in the future equations of the West Asian region? To answer this question, the scenario building method and the critical uncertainty approach have been used.Havingidentified the uncertainties based on the opinions of experts, from their interaction, four scenarios, which are the isolation of Yemen in the regional equations, the alliance with the Eastern-Islamic Front (enhancing Yemen's position in the regional equations), the alliance with the Salafi-Western Front (weakened and trusteeshipYemen) and strong Yemen (independent of the intervention of regional and supra-regional actors) have been presented.

In the new age of politics, culture and citizenship influenced by new media play a prominent role in the emergence of events.Traditional paradigms have generally been regarded by governments as major actors in the field of inter-nation relations, but in the modern era and in the cultural policy paradigm,by means of the media, the citizens theirelves act as an active participant in all everyday issues in the national and global arenas.The theoretical and practical foundations of the cultural belief paradigm are such that the functioning of the mass media has evolved more than any period in the history of their emersion.In this paradigm,cultural politics is signifying practices through which identities,relationships,and social rules are reinforced,transformed,or redefined. The present study,using the documentary-library method,seeks to answer the question of what are the cultural effects of modern media on the meaning and practice of new social movements? The research findings show that the media,in the age of the cultural policy paradigm,while changing and revolving around the citizens'cognitive foundations,has made public and universal issues a top priority and with decentralization of power and an increasing influence on the functioning of the political system and decision-makers,Citizens are more prominent in the political and social scene.