دکتر محمدرضا فتحی

The petrochemical industry in Iran, as one of the country's primary revenue-generating sectors, plays a crucial role in job creation, mitigating the effects of sanctions, and preventing raw material sales. This study aims to identify the factors influencing the development of the petrochemical industry by considering budgetary structures and comprehensively modeling the dynamic systems of this sector, including crude oil and natural gas exports, the National Development Fund, and the Oil and Gas Fund. The research also focuses on production and sales within the petrochemical industry to assess the impact of inflation on feedstock and utilities.

This research adopts a system dynamics approach to model the budget formation in developing the capacity of the petrochemical industry. It employs causal models and simulates flow-stock models using the Vensim software. The modeling process incorporates budget allocation structures for projects and petrochemical complexes capable of producing products, utilizing over 450,000 data points related to production and sales across the entire petrochemical industry in Iran from 2011 to 2023.

The results of the modeling closely align with empirical outcomes, indicating that Iran's final petrochemical production increased from 28.7 million tons in 2011 to 52 million tons in 2023. Additionally, the nominal capacity of complexes rose from 54.1 million tons to 90.2 million tons. Assuming an annual increase in feedstock and utility prices (inflation) ranging from 1% to 10%, industry costs have surged by $2.9 billion. However, due to a 76% increase in production capacity, the net revenue of the industry has remained at approximately $26 billion.

This research provides a comprehensive and reliable framework for analyzing and planning the development of production capacity within the petrochemical industry through system dynamics modeling. Furthermore, it quantitatively elucidates the role of optimal budget allocation and examines the impact of rising costs on production and revenue in this sector. The study explores the effects of various influential factors on petrochemical product output, including the implications of inflation on feedstock and utilities, as well as the effects of increasing inflation rates.

This study aims to explore and assess situations in international markets. In this context, the primary objective is to pinpoint the factors influencing the gas market and to analyze the internal dynamics of each of these factors. Subsequently, based on the factor-driven model of the recognized elements, the interplay and behaviors of these elements as parts of a factor-driven model are investigated.

This research employs the problem structuring approach, also known as soft operational research, specifically the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) method. Additionally, in the quantitative part of this research, factor-based modeling is utilized. In this research, an attempt is first made to obtain a proper understanding of the reality of the gas market, and then a model is built based on this understanding. By identifying the key and leverage parts of the factor-based model and then simulating it for the long term, possible scenarios or states are extracted.

In the first step, key players in the gas market, including the United States, the European Union, Russia, China, India, Iran, Qatar, and the Renewable Energy Group, were identified, and the conflicts between them were modeled. The GMCR analysis resulted in the identification of 28 equilibrium points, which were subsequently clustered into five distinct scenarios. In the next step, an agent-based simulation model was developed based on these scenarios.

Originality/Value: 

By integrating GMCR and Agent-Based Model (ABM), this study has successfully addressed aspects of strategic conflict, market dynamics, and the gradual learning of participants, which were previously overlooked in most earlier research.

The aim of this research is to present a socio-technical transition model from the tradi- tional judicial system to the electronic judicial system in Iran. The methodology of this research is mixed; the qualitative part of the research includes identifying factors influ- encing this technological transition at the levels of technological niches, socio-technical regimes, and the landscape through theoretical foundations and interviews with experts. The quantitative part of the research also uses Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) to determine and analyze the relationships between the factors affecting this technological transition. The results of this research indicate that the themes at the landscape lev- el include technological developments and emerging criminal behaviors, socio-cultural anomalies, the digital divide, the need for private and public sector involvement, gov- ernment and judicial technology policies and laws, and the lack of digital governance in the country. The themes at the regime level include financial and budgetary resources, complexities of the judicial structure, organizational changes, investment, changes in user habits, application domain issues, privacy, information security, specialized human resources, weaknesses in network governance of the judiciary, and insufficient maturity of digital court technology. Additionally, the themes at the niche level include pioneering legal and judicial technology companies, technological infrastructure, the connection be- tween legal experts and technologists, the attractiveness of legal and judicial technology fields, innovation, and the legal services market.

Choosing the right suppliers can significantly reduce production costs and increase the competitiveness of the organization, because in most industries, the cost of raw materials and product components is a major part of the total price. Therefore, the aim of the current research was to evaluate the selection of sustainable suppliers in the supply chain of the steel industry with thematic analysis technique and the method of simultaneous evaluation of criteria and options in the steel companies of Shahrekord Industrial City.

This research is applied and mixed type (qualitative-quantitative). Using the purposeful sampling method, 13 experts, familiar with the research, were determined. In the qualitative section, thematic analysis was used to code and identify the factors. In addition, in order to prioritize the criteria and rank the suppliers, the method of simultaneous evaluation of criteria and options was used.

The results of content analysis showed that the effective factors include seven factors, management support, economic, social, environment, education, laws and regulations, information technology. Then, based on the method of simultaneous evaluation of criteria and options, it has obtained the first priority economic criterion, the second priority management support criterion, and the third priority educational criterion. Mobarake steel has won the first rank among the options. Kavian Steel of Khuzestan has won the second place and Aksin Steel of Ahvaz has won the third place.

According to the results obtained from the theory of content analysis, seven factors were obtained: management support, economic, social, educational environment, laws and regulations, and information technology.

During the past years and after the holy defense, one of the biggest cultural events of the country that caused the transfer of experiences and retelling of the historical events and sacrifices of the warriors of Islam during the eight years of the holy defense was Rahian Noor. The presence of narrators in this event and conveying as much as possible the concepts and realities of war will increase the efficiency and productivity of the narrators and the satisfaction of the pilgrims, which requires the formulation and presentation of a comprehensive program and model to evaluate the performance. Therefore, the main goal of this research is. Design indicators are to evaluate the performance of narrators and provide a performance evaluation model to evaluate narrators.

The research is applied and mixed, which is designed in two qualitative and quantitative phases. In the first phase, with the research method of theme analysis and through theoretical foundations and interviews with experts familiar with narration in Rahian Noor camps, the performance indicators of narrators or basic themes were extracted. Based on the analysis of interviews with experts and basic themes, these themes were categorized, and each category is referred to as an organizing theme. In the second phase of the research, by using a questionnaire, opinions were sought from the specific field of Rahian Noor on the two issues of weighting the indicators extracted in the first phase and the performance status of the narrators. The analysis and review of the results of this questionnaire was done through Matrisipa until the current situation and the indicators and indicators of the organizations' priorities are determined. In order to evaluate the performance of the narrators, another questionnaire was prepared and set up for the purpose of evaluating the narrators by groups of pilgrims, caravans, memorial servants, and memorial officials. After designing the questions corresponding to each indicator, the questions related to the headquarters of Rahian Noor are presented to determine that each question will be suitable for the group of respondents. To achieve this, a series of brief questions were asked to each of the aspirant groups.

The result of the classification of themes is attributed to the seventh result of the theme of organizers of job knowledge, management and organization, communication and moral skills, appearance, wise narration or rationality, quality and satisfaction. Also, three indicators of wise narration with 43%, quality with 32% and communication and moral skills with 13% and with a big difference from other organizing indicators, the first rank has been assigned the most importance. In addition, based on this response, four categories of questionnaires were prepared for different groups (pilgrims, caravan managers, memorial servants, and memorial officials) and finally, a model was presented to evaluate the narrators' performance step by step.

Originality/Value:

 This research is conducted for the first time in the field of Rahian Noor camps, and considering the structural differences with other organizations, including the honorary nature of the narrators and their voluntary activities, it has an innovative and practical structure. Also, for the research to be more practical, providing a performance evaluation model for other people related to Rahian Noor camps and using other performance evaluation methods for goal management, behavioral rating evaluation method, sensitive event recording method, and psychological evaluation method. And the comparison of their results is suggested.

Making correct decisions is one of the key factors determining the success of organizations. Efforts have always been made to improve the decision-making process within organizations. With the rapid growth of the artificial intelligence market, organizations are increasingly leveraging this technology to optimize their decision-making processes. Amid this trend, there are significant hopes and concerns about the future of decision-making supported by machine intelligence in organizations. This research aims to outline scenarios for the future of decision-making using AI.

This study adopts a futures research approach and utilizes the "Global Business Network" method to develop scenarios. Initially, data derived from the literature and semi-structured interviews with experts were coded using thematic analysis and classified into seventeen categories. Subsequently, through cross-impact analysis and expert evaluations, two drivers were selected based on their importance and uncertainty to construct the scenarios. Finally, four scenarios were developed based on these two main drivers.

The research identified seventeen drivers influencing machine intelligence-based decision-making in organizations. Using cross-impact analysis, two critical uncertainties—AI’s decision-making ability compared to humans and the extent of AI adoption in decision-making—were chosen. Based on these two axes, four scenarios were outlined: Marginalized Human , The Mirage of Machine Intelligence, Humans as Decision Masters, and Missed Opportunities. Each scenario depicts a different future regarding the role of humans and AI in organizational decision-making. The intermediate scenario illustrates the coexistence of AI and humans.

Due to economic constraints and sanctions, the likelihood of the "Missed Opportunities" scenario occurring in Iran is high. Limited investment in AI and the lack of prioritization for its development may push the country away from even a constructive coexistence between humans and machine intelligence. To avoid this outcome, it is recommended that organizations initiate small pilot projects, utilize open-source tools and cloud services to reduce costs, and control technological risks. Continuous employee training and collaboration with universities and research centers can also enhance skills and reduce external dependency. Finally, monitoring return on investment and adopting agile methodologies will pave the way for gradual and efficient utilization of AI.

In today’s digital world, influencer marketing is recognized as one of the key marketing strategies in the tourism industry. Influencers play a significant role in shaping brand perception and influencing followers' travel intentions. This study aims to examine the impact of influencers’ travel experiences, travel recommendations, and content effectiveness on followers’ brand perception and travel intention. The research is applied in nature and adopts a descriptive-analytical methodology. Data were collected using a questionnaire with confirmed validity and reliability, and analyzed through Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) using SmartPLS software. The statistical population consisted of social media users interested in travel, and convenience sampling was employed. The results indicate that travel experiences, travel recommendations, and influencer content effectiveness have a significant and positive impact on brand perception. Moreover, brand perception serves as a mediating variable that strengthens the influence of these factors on followers’ travel intention. Additionally, trust in influencers and the quality of generated content play a crucial role in enhancing travel motivation and user engagement with tourism brands. Accordingly, tourism brands can improve their digital marketing strategies and increase their impact on consumers’ travel decision-making by effectively collaborating with credible influencers.

Recognition of competence in the organization is the starting point for many human resource implementations such as talent management and succession planning. Paying attention to this issue can improve the input and output functions of an organization in all dimensions, especially in a competitive environment. The purpose of this research is to design a competency model for the officials of the Rahyan Noor camps in the country. In the first phase, the theme analysis research method was used and by using theoretical bases (similar domestic and foreign articles) as well as by studying the documents of Rahian Noor and fully examining the menus of the Supreme Leader (Madazla Al-Aali) regarding the competence of officials to interview experts. The officials of the servants were paid. Competence indicators of the officials of the servants or basic themes were extracted and by analyzing the interviews and basic themes, these themes were categorized and the theme of the organizer was assigned to each category. The result of the classification led to the extraction of seven themes of the organizer, which are: appearance characteristics, personal characteristics, political, moral excellence, specialized skills, experiences and views. In the second phase of the research, the importance of each index was obtained using a Likert scale . tour According to the results obtained, according to the results, political indicators 40%, personal characteristics 19%, moral excellence 16% and specialized skills with 12% gained the most importance from the point of view of the experts.

The purpose of this research is to predict the production and consumption of energy carriers in the supply chain and to choose a strategy with a robustness analysis approach in the National Copper Industries Company of Iran.

The current research is based on the objective of the applied type. The research method is quantitative, the data collection is done through the review and analysis of documents, and the monthly time series data of 2010-2017 of Sarchashme copper complex was used. Multivariable time series method and Eviews software were used to forecast the production and consumption of energy carriers in Sarcheshme copper complex in the supply chain, and robustness analysis approach was also used to confirm the predictions made.

The predicted values showed that the ratio of production to consumption of energy carriers would be almost constant in 2018. In addition, based on the stability analysis approach, the main competitive strategy that had the most stability and at the same time the least disability was chosen as the most favorable strategy.

By using the results of this research, a comprehensive view can be reached on the optimization of energy production and consumption.

In today's global market, companies increasingly rely on their supply chains to maintain competitiveness. Intense competition has driven companies to exploit new markets and lower production costs through the development of their supply chains, leading to more complex global supply chains. Although this is a complex and broad topic, there is a consensus among researchers that adopting an appropriate strategy positively impacts performance and allows companies to achieve sustainable competitive advantage. Therefore, the objective of this research is to examine the impact of supply chain strategy on business performance, with an emphasis on product characteristics and environmental uncertainty. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of methodology, utilizing library and field studies as well as questionnaires to gather data. The statistical population of the study consists of all managers of industrial units in the Shokouhiyeh Industrial Town of Qom, with a sample size of 260 estimated using Cochran's formula. For data analysis, partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was employed using Smart PLS software. The results of the structural equation modeling indicated that product characteristics have a significant impact on supply chain strategy. Additionally, the findings revealed that environmental uncertainty significantly affects supply chain strategy, and supply chain strategy, in turn, has a significant impact on business performance.

This study aims to model and evaluate the sustainability indicators of the petrochemical supply chain. Initially, primary data were collected through a review of scientific resources and interviews with experts in the field, identifying key sustainability indicators. These indicators were categorized into four main dimensions: environmental )e.g., reducing energy consumption and controlling greenhouse gas emissions(, social )including enhancing corporate social responsibility and improving employee safety and health(, economic )e.g., cost optimization and productivity enhancement(, and governance )such as transparency in reporting and adherence to international standards(. A systemic approach was employed to analyze the relationships between these indicators and to determine their importance and influence, enabling the identification of both direct and indirect connections among factors. The results revealed that indicators like reducing energy consumption and utilizing renewable resources in the environmental dimension have the highest impact on other factors. Additionally, factors such as transparency in reporting and compliance with international standards within the governance dimension play a critical role in enhancing supply chain sustainability. The study demonstrated that integrating environmental, economic, social, and governance dimensions into a comprehensive framework can support the evaluation and improvement of supply chain sustainability. Such a framework enables organizations to achieve economic goals while fulfilling environmental and social commitments. Furthermore, the flexibility of this framework allows adaptation to market changes and emerging challenges. The applied approach, by clarifying the connections among indicators, assists petrochemical industries in making more effective decisions to enhance their sustainable performance.

In today's world, one of the important and fundamental requirements of urban management and achieving sustainable urban development is integrated urban management and sustainable sources of income, so the present research was conducted with the aim of identifying and ranking the strategies for achieving sustainable urban income in Fouladshahr Municipality. In terms of method, the research is mixed, which is a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. In the first stage, the qualitative method and thematic analysis type using interviews with experts was used, and in the second stage, in order to rank the components identified in the qualitative stage, the quantitative method of SwaraFuzzy method was used. Using the purposeful sampling method, 15 experts in the academic field and specialists in the field of urban management in Fouladshahr were determined. And interviews were conducted openly with experts. The results showed that the components of sustainable urban incomes include 12 general themes of information technology, research, recycling, advertising, legal assets, revenues from tolls, service prices and revenues of municipal for-profit institutions, revenues from municipal funds and properties, government grants and Government organizations, financial relations of the municipality with citizens, investment of the municipality in creating sources of sustainable income. It was determined by using the fuzzy swara technique that the income from the tolls obtained the highest rank. And the research factor got the lowest rank.

With the increasing use of cryptocurrencies, various aspects of this technology, including its potential to facilitate organized crimes such as drug trafficking, have gained attention. This research aims to develop future scenarios for the use of cryptocurrencies in drug trafficking and presents plausible scenarios in this area.

Research: 

This research is applied and based on a mixed-methods approach (qualitative and quantitative). In the first phase, effective drivers were identified through in-depth interviews with 23 experts, including specialists in blockchain technology, cybercrime, and social security. In the second phase, the cross-impact analysis of the drivers was conducted using SPSS and MICMAC software, and plausible scenarios were developed.

The findings emphasize the necessity of developing comprehensive laws, international coordination, and the development of advanced monitoring technologies to combat the illegal use of cryptocurrencies. This research helps policymakers adopt more effective strategies to manage this global challenge.

The results indicated that 10 key drivers, including «easy access,» «legal loopholes,» and «decentralization,» have a significant impact on the future use of cryptocurrencies in drug trafficking. The «easy access» driver had the highest direct impact ranking, and the «technological advancements» driver had the highest indirect impact ranking. Additionally, the impact analysis showed that legal loopholes and easy access to cryptocurrencies play a fundamental role in developing scenarios. Four main scenarios were developed by combining two key drivers: easy access and legal loopholes. The «traffickers› paradise» scenario represents a situation where cryptocurrencies are easily accessible and laws are inadequate, while the «struggle in the shadows» scenario emphasizes the difficulty of accessing these currencies alongside legal loopholes.

The choice of supply network is one of the influential factors in the activity of economic and commercial enterprises. Choosing a green, agile and sustainable supplier network is also a strategic decision to be more competitive in today's global marketplace. This becomes even more important when companies are looking for new markets and therefore new suppliers. This study was conducted to identify, rank and provide a model for evaluating and selecting a green, agile and sustainable supply network in the rail transport industry. This research is of survey and applied type and the method of data collection is field and the data collection tool is a questionnaire. In this research, first, by library studies, searching on reputable scientific sites and reviewing existing scientific texts, the selection criteria of a green, agile and sustainable supplier network have been collected. Then, the research questionnaire was developed based on these indicators. Finally, using multi-criteria and statistical decision-making techniques, all indicators were ranked based on importance and the importance of each indicator was determined. In this research, fuzzy Delphi technique has been used to identify the components and CRITIC method has been used to determine the importance of the indicators. Findings show that the components of competitiveness and position in the industry among competitors, financial performance, information technology and system innovation, organizational flexibility to adapt to changing conditions over time are the most important, respectively.

The insurance market is one of the most important financial markets. Insurance companies play a significant role in the growth and development of any country by accepting various risks and strengthening financial resources for investment in the capital market. According to the nature of their activity, insurance companies will fail in fulfilling their future obligations if they are not capable enough. Emphasizing the financial ratios of insurance companies as a clear indicator of the performance of insurance companies has caused the investigation of the relationship between financial ratios and the ratio of financial wealth of insurance companies with an emphasis on car tire insurance to be the main goal of this research. In this research, four categories of financial ratios under the title of leverage ratios and capital adequacy, profitability ratios, liquidity ratios and operating ratios are considered as independent variables for 21 insurance companies in the period of 2010-2012 and the relationship of these financial ratios with the financial strength ratio of the companies Insurance has been reviewed during this time period. Based on the results of this research, profitability ratios and liquidity ratios have a high correlation with financial prosperity ratio, and the ratios of loss ratio, profitability of insurance operations, net profit to equity from the set of profitability ratios and current ratio from the set of liquidity ratios are the most effective financial ratios in the evaluation of prosperity. are financial The desirability of financial ratios indicates the financial health of insurance companies and that insurance companies will be able to fulfill their obligations, and financial ratios can be introduced as an effective component to evaluate the health and financial strength of insurance companies and get help from them to check their financial strength.

In today's world, communication with the customer and customer satisfaction is the top priority of all organizations. In particular, marketers in the service sector have highlighted the potential value associated with developing relationships between service providers and the customer. Today, companies want not only to attract customers, but also to maintain them for a lifetime. Banks are no exception to this rule. With the many efforts that banks make to provide quality services, providing services that are free of defects is unrealistic. On the other hand, customer dissatisfaction may be due to shortcomings in the services provided. Therefore, in this study, we examine the role of recovery due to service failure on the perception of justice and attitudinal loyalty and behavioral loyalty. The present research is applied and descriptive-survey. The statistical population is all citizens referring to the central branch of three state-owned banks (Melli, keshavarzi, Sepah); There are three semi-governmental banks (Trade, Welfare, Nation) and three private banks (Eghtesad-e-Novin, Pasargad, Ayandeh) in Khuzestan province, Shahrdaz-e-Fool, where 384 people were selected as a statistical sample. A questionnaire was used to collect data and the validity of the structures was assessed using confirmatory factor analysis. And Cronbach's alpha coefficient greater than 0.7 for different constructs of the questionnaire confirmed its reliability. Structural equation modeling technique was used to test the hypotheses. Findings showed that service failure has a positive and significant effect on service recovery. In addition, service recovery as a mediating role has a significant and positive effect on perceived perceptions, attitudinal and behavioral loyalty.

In this research, in order to increase the efficiency of the proposed supply chain network, a multi-product model with multiple objectives has been considered simultaneously. This model is designed to include four levels (supply, production, distribution, and first-class customers) in the forward network and four levels (collection centers, recycling centers, destruction centers, and second-class customers) in the backward network. The model has three objective functions: minimizing the total cost, minimizing the environmental impact, and maximizing the social impact of the supply chain. The cost objective function includes purchase cost (procurement of raw materials from suppliers and cost of purchasing returned products from customers), operating costs, inventory cost, transportation cost or flow transfer between facilities, and fixed setup cost. In the second objective function, it has always been tried to minimize the environmental effects that have adverse effects on the environment. In this article, the minimization of carbon dioxide gas caused by the transfer of flow between facilities is considered a function of the environmental objective. The third objective function includes the employee welfare index. Considering that the presented model belongs to the NP-hard category, the multi-objective genetic algorithm was used to solve the model, and finally the Pareto solutions were determined. Based on the obtained results, two economic and environmental objective functions are in conflict with each other. In the sense that the movement of each in the desired direction will require the movement of the other objective function in the unfavorable direction.

Blockchain technology can revolutionize the tourism sector by providing innovative solutions. One of the most important requirements for adopting any technology is to identify the barriers to its adoption, however, blockchain is a platform that is still not widely understood and accepted. The purpose of this study is to identify and analyze the barriers to blockchain adoption in the tourism industry. For the effective use of blockchain, adoption barriers must be carefully identified and analyzed to minimize their negative effects. The statistical population of this research includes twenty-two blockchain experts in the tourism industry, and the data collection tool is a questionnaire. Eleven barriers were selected from the articles and the Micmac method was used to categorize variables based on driving force and dependence. The results show that "lack of knowledge, expertise and human capital", "lack of standardization" and "lack of government regulations" as driving variables are the most important barriers to the adoption of blockchain in the tourism industry, focusing on them has effective applications in the future of blockchain in tourism. The first basic result of this study is to examine the obstacles through causality, which facilitates the decision-making process for policymakers and policy planners involved in this process. The results of the present study help organizations prioritize their efforts and actions to manage time and resources. In addition, the intensity of the examined relationships between barriers can improve the views and perceptions of the tourism industry and academic experts to analyze the relationships.

Today, sustainable development is one of the areas that business managers pay attention to in order to achieve long-term success and development. One of the areas of sustainability that has received little attention, especially in Iran, and there is limited knowledge about it, is the issue of sustainable innovation, which can create valuable results. Therefore, the aim of this research is to identify the dimensions and components of sustainable innovation in the packaging industry and provide a framework in this field. This research is descriptive-survey in terms of applied purpose and in terms of data collection method. At the beginning of the research, the theoretical foundations and previous research in the field of the research topic were examined. Based on the findings, 26 components of sustainable innovation were identified in the form of 6 dimensions. The identified dimensions include product innovation, environmental, production, organizational, managerial and social. In the next step, the fuzzy Delphi method was used to localize the identified components in the packaging industry. For this purpose, a panel of 13 experts was formed and they were asked to rate the identified factors based on a five-point Likert scale. After two rounds of the fuzzy Delphi process, 25 factors were finalized. In the next step, by using the TOPSIS fuzzy method and asking the opinion of 28 managers and specialists of Yazd packaging industries, priority was given to the components of sustainable innovation. Based on the findings, the three components of improving the quality of the final product, improving the production technology and improving the technical characteristics of the product have the highest priority. Finally, the research results showed that sustainable innovation in the packaging industry is a multidimensional phenomenon with valuable results.