دکتر ابراهیم جاودان

Food prices are an important indicator of societal well-being, and food inflation can deepen poverty in developing economies. Severe food price fluctuations not only affect food security in developing countries, but also affect economic growth and social stability. Any increase in food prices can push many people back below the poverty line. Rising food prices hit low-income households hard, as the household food basket accounts for nearly half of household living expenses. Therefore, food price stability is of particular importance to policymakers trying to lift households above the poverty line. Food prices in Iran have always been on the rise, and even in recent years, the rate of food price growth has accelerated. Today, inflation, especially food inflation, remains a major problem in Iran, and policymakers are always trying to reduce food inflation. In this regard, and with the aim of controlling food prices, different policies have been implemented in Iran, and the effectiveness of these policies has been discussed. Therefore, understanding the behavior of food prices in response to macroeconomic factors is essential for policymakers to implement appropriate policies at the right time and place to keep domestic prices stable. In this regard, in the present study, the asymmetric effect of macroeconomic variables (money supply, GDP per capita, exchange rate, and trade openness) affecting food inflation in Iran is examined using the nonlinear ARDL approach.
 
The main objective of this study is to examine the asymmetric effect of domestic macroeconomic factors on food prices in Iran using a Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. According to the theoretical literature, in this study, it is assumed that food prices are a function of macroeconomic variables, including money supply (MS), GDP per capita (GDPER), exchange rate (RATE), trade openness (OPEN), and global economic policy uncertainty index (EPU). Therefore, in accordance with Shin et al. (2014), the NARDL model used in this study is developed to examine the asymmetric effect of domestic macroeconomic factors (for example, money supply) as follows: 
In the above relationship, each of the macroeconomic factors (including the money supply, GDP per capita, exchange rate, and trade openness) is separated into the sum of positive and negative components. In fact, two additional variables are created in each equation, one indicating an increase in the variable of interest with a positive sign and the other indicating a decrease with a negative sign. The variable of global economic policy uncertainty index also plays the role of a control variable. Due to the availability of data, the time period in this study is 1991 to 2022.
 
The results of the linear and nonlinear bounds test in the ARDL model showed that there is a long-term relationship between macroeconomic variables including money supply, GDP per capita, exchange rate, trade openness, global economic policy uncertainty and food prices in Iran. In addition, the results of short-term and long-term symmetry tests using the Wald test showed that the effect of the exchange rate variable on food inflation in Iran is asymmetric in the long and short run, while the effect of the money supply and GDP per capita variables is asymmetric only in the long run; the effect of the trade openness variable is also symmetric in the short and long run and has a linear behavior. The results of the ARDL linear model estimation showed that in the short and long run, the effect of the growth of the variables of money supply, GDP per capita, exchange rate and global economic policy uncertainty on food inflation in Iran is positive and significant, while the effect of trade openness is negative and significant. The results of the NARDL model estimation also showed that the response of food inflation to increases and decreases in money supply and GDP growth is positive and significant, and their increase on food inflation is greater than the effect of their decrease. The response of food inflation in the long and short term to increases in the exchange rate is positive and significant, while the effect of decreasing the exchange rate in the long and short term is negative, but not statistically significant, and the effect of increasing the exchange rate on food inflation in the long term is greater than its effect in the short term. The effect of trade openness on food inflation is symmetric, with an increase in trade openness leading to a reduction in food inflation in both the short and long term.
 
Linking the prices of agricultural products to market conditions and liberalizing the market for these products is an appropriate method for coordinating the effects of macro policies and specific agricultural policies that should be considered by policymakers. Given the importance of the agricultural sector, the government's economic policies in relation to food prices will be of high importance and sensitivity. Considering the results of implementing contractionary monetary policies in coordination with other Central Bank policies, increasing investment and efforts to increase productivity in the agricultural sector, appropriate foreign exchange policies are recommended to prevent unreasonable increases in the exchange rate, and reducing tariffs and trade restrictions to increase trade openness.

The first step in exporting is to identify the target market and clarify customer needs. Choosing the right target market is also the first step for a successful marketing strategy. When selecting a target market, it is necessary to take into account the marketing mix and consumer preferences of the destination country. By identifying the target market, the producer can focus its marketing, sales, research and decision-making activities optimally. It is important to note that export marketing does not simply mean identifying buyers or importers from the destination country and encouraging them to place orders; rather, it is the correct implementation of the process developed in the form of a marketing strategy in order to achieve success in the international market. Market structure represents the organizational characteristics of the market and can be used to determine the relationships between market components. The market structure lies between the two well-known situations of perfect competition and perfect monopoly. Two factors of fundamental importance in the structure between competition and monopoly are the number of sellers and their size.

This aimed at investigating the structure of world markets and determining the most suitable target markets for the export products of Zanjan province in Iran, including raisins, apples, apricots, onions, potatoes, tomatoes and garlic during the period 2015-2019. In order to examine the structure of the markets, concentration ratios and Herfindahl-Hirschman indices were calculated and to prioritize the target markets, the screening method was used. For this purpose, time series data on domestic production, quantity and export value of the exportable products to importing countries were collected and analyzed. Therefore, the concentration ratio (CR) and Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI) were calculated to examine the structure of the markets as well as the screening methods were utilized to prioritize the target markets.

The study results showed that the market structures for agricultural products were different from each other and the export priority for countries was also diverse. Therefore, a list of priority target markets was provided based on the type of exportable products. Calculation of the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) showed that the international markets for raisins, apples, potatoes and onions were subject to monopolistic competition, while the global markets for apricots and tomatoes were a loose oligopoly and a dominant firm for garlic.

Conclusion and Suggestions: 

According to the study findings, it is suggested that by benefiting from modern marketing strategies, identifying the taste and health standards of the target markets, the competitiveness of the export products of the province should be strengthened and the necessary measures should be taken to gain a greater share of the international markets.

The real exchange rate, as one of the key macroeconomic variables, has always been focused by policymakers and economists. Also, the effect of the real exchange rate on the quality of Iran's export agricultural products is one of the important issues in agricultural economics. The change in the real exchange rate through changes in the composition of export goods, exporters’ motivation, demand elasticity as well as in other variables can cause variation in the quality of agricultural products. Therefore, this study mainly aimed at investigating the effect of real exchange rate shocks on the quality of Iran's export agricultural products using the Panel-SVAR model in the form of monthly panel data for 36 countries during 2007-2020. In addition, in this study, the effects of changes shocks in real GDP per capita and also in the quantity and price of Iran's agricultural products on their quality were investigated.

The study used the panel SVAR methodology developed by Pedroni (2013) to analyze the effect of the real exchange rate on the quality of Iran's export agricultural products, as follows:In the above equation, c and t indices indicate the country and time period; the λ, q and 𝜋 variables also indicate the quality, quantity and price of export agricultural products, respectively; in addition, RER and RGDP represent the bilateral real exchange rate (between the exporting and importing countries) and the real GDP per capita for the importing country of Iran's agricultural products, respectively. Based on the above equation, the panel SVAR model could be defined as follows:In the above equation, Sc is the matrix of structural parameters and reflects the short-term relationship between model variables. According to Mao et al. (2021), the Sc matrix could be considered as follows:

The results of the Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) showed that the cumulative response of the quality of Iran's agricultural products to shocks of real exchange rate was significantly positive, so that it would increase suddenly at the beginning of the period and then, reach a stable state, and the full effect of real exchange rate shocks would be revealed in the short term. In fact, an increase in the real exchange rate will improve the quality of Iran's export agricultural products. In addition, the cumulative response of the quality of Iran's agricultural products to shocks of GDP per capita and also the quantity and price of Iran's export agricultural products was significantly positive. Finally, the results of the structural variance decomposition showed that in the first five periods, the variables of quality of export agricultural products (by 88 percent) and the amount of export agricultural products (by 10 percent) had the greatest effects on changes in the quality of export agricultural products of Iran, respectively.

The study results have important policy implications for the government and companies that export agricultural products. The response of the quality of Iran’s export agricultural products in the short term showed that the improvement in the quality of these products after the increase in the bilateral real exchange rate can be achieved by the improvement of the quality of agricultural products in Iran's export baskets. Therefore, efforts towards the sustainable improvement of the quality of agricultural products through the advanced technologies, supporting Research and Development (R&D) activities in quality improvement and designing a comprehensive pattern of trade with the target countries can be the suitable solution considered by the government.

Food insecurity can overshadow vital values and even challenge the national security of countries. Therefore, in the effort to improve food security, it is necessary for the policy maker to manage this issue with a conscious approach and a systematic method. In this regard, knowing the current state of food consumption and its determinants is not only a necessary condition for preparing future programs, but it is necessary to continue this work with the aim of monitoring and evaluating the results of implemented programs and actions. With this approach, the present study investigated the pattern of food consumption and the factors affecting it in the urban areas of Iran in 2022. To attain these objectives, the cost-income data from the Iranian Statistics Center was utilized. Additionally, the nutritional performance matrix was employed, along with the classification system provided by the Iranian Statistics Center. To better comprehension regarding the food consumption in urban regions across the provinces of the country and to pinpoint provinces exhibiting comparable behavioral patterns, the K-means clustering technique was employed. Subsequently, a map illustrating the food consumption patterns in urban areas of Iran was designed. Finally, by using the matching method, factors affecting food consumption in urban areas of Iran were identified. According to the results, the current food pattern of households in the urban areas of Iran mainly includes all kinds of cereals and this product group provides nearly 58% of the daily energy requirement. According to the clustering results, a grand total of five distinct behavioral patterns were detected. Examining the patterns shows that the pattern of food consumption in the urban areas of different provinces of the country is heterogeneous and while having a lot of diversity, it has little relationship with the geographical location of the provinces. Finally, based on the results of the matching method the factors that explain the difference in food consumption between the province include the size of the household, the age of the head of the household, the literacy level of the head of the household, the employment status of the head of the household, the average daily income of the household, the average daily subsidy received by the household, and the food variety.

Food price stability is the main concern of most governments around the world, because any increase in food prices at the micro level affects the purchasing power of citizens and at the macro level, through the inflation channel, it affects many macroeconomic indicators.

With this approach, this study aimed at conducting a regional analysis of food price anomaly in Iran. For this purpose, first, the Indicator of Food Price Anomaly (IFPA) was calculated for different provinces during the period of 2018-2022. Furthermore, the K-means clustering technique was employed to comprehend the price discrepancy in the regions, to pinpoint the underlying cause of the variation among the provinces, to recognize the provinces indicating similar patterns, and to create a visual representation of the food price anomaly across Iran's provinces. 

The study findings indicated that throughout the examined years, the provinces of Qazvin, Zanjan, and Mazandaran showed the highest anomaly in food prices, respectively. In addition, Sistan and Baluchistan, Hormozgan, South Khorasan and East Azerbaijan provinces had the least anomaly in food prices during the mentioned period. Then, the provinces were classified into six clusters. In all the clusters, there was a direct relationship between  expenditure and anomaly, and in the provinces where the real expenditure for buying food or the demand for food was higher, the price anomaly was also higher. The amount of household spending on food in the provinces located in the first cluster including Sistan and Baluchistan, South Khorasan, North Khorasan, Kerman and Hormozgan was lower than other provinces. Since these were among the deprived provinces of the country, households had lower consumption demand due to the lower income level and therefore, the food price anomaly in these provinces was lower than other provinces. On the other hand, in the provinces located in the third cluster, including Tehran, Mazandaran and Alborz, the real household expenditure on food was higher than other provinces. Therefore, in these provinces, although 25 percent of household expenses were spent on food, the amount of food expenses was numerically higher than other provinces. Thus, the consumption demand and consequently, the food price anomaly was higher in these provinces, compared to other provinces. Finally, based on the study results, it was observed that in the second, fifth and sixth clusters, the export or smuggling of food and agricultural goods from some border provinces was the main cause of the anomaly of food prices in these clusters.

Conclusion and Suggestions:

 According to the findings, it is suggested that the government revise its market regulation policies and pay special attention to the deprived provinces. In addition, in order to prevent the increased food prices in the border provinces, the phenomenon of smuggling should be controlled in the short term through control measures to prevent the unofficial exit of goods and in the long term by making food prices realistic.

During the last decade, due to the increase in food prices, the cost of a healthy diet in Iran has greatly increased. Although the government's support policies have aimed at improving the living conditions of households, but the cost and income information of the Iranian Statistics Center shows that due to inflationary conditions and its impact on real income and purchasing power of consumers, these programs have not had the necessary effect in reducing poverty and food insecurity. Reducing poverty and increasing the food security index is a requirement for independent countries like Iran. In this regard, knowing the current situation of poverty, food insecurity and factors influencing it, is not only the main condition for preparing future plans, but is necessary to continue this work with the aim of monitoring and evaluating the results of implemented plans and actions.

In the present study, the spatial distribution of poverty and food insecurity in the urban areas of Iran in 1401 has been investigated and then the factors affecting food insecurity have been identified. In order to achieve these goals, the nutritional performance matrix was drawn and calculated per capita calories in 1401 using the household income-expenditure information of Iran Statistics Center. The Aggregate Household Food Security Index (AHFSI) and the Foster, Greere and Thorbeke (FGT) poverty index were calculated and based on these indices, the spatial distribution of poverty and food insecurity in urban areas of Iran was analyzed. Finally, the impact of economic and demographic variables on food insecurity was analyzed in the framework of the logit model.

According to the results, the urban areas of the country are in low food security conditions; so that, only 45% of people have food security and about 55% of the residents of urban areas are either facing food insecurity or are on the border of food insecurity. On the other hand, the per capita calorie intake in the urban areas of the country is 2540 kcal, and generally these calories are supplied from cereals. In addition, there is inequality in the intake of calories in different provinces of the country, and the average intake of calories varies between 1988-3196 kcal among the provinces. Examining the status of food poverty indicators also shows that the average head count, gap and intensity of poverty in urban areas are 55.1%, 15.2% and 6% respectively. Based on these indicators, it can be said that 55.1% of the population of the urban areas of the country had food poverty in 1401 and the calorie intake of the poor households in these areas was 15.2% less than the minimum required daily calories; therefore, to eliminate poverty, the caloric intake of poor households should be increased by 15.2%. Finally, the results of the logit model estimation showed that the variables of age, employment status, working hours of the head of the household, subsidy, income and food diversity have a positive and significant effect on the food security of the households, but the Family size has a negative effect on the food security. In addition, the two variables gender and literacy of the head of the household did not have a significant effect on the food security in urban areas of Iran.

In this regard, although the long-term solution is to increase household purchasing power, stabilize and reduce commodity prices through strengthening production and supply, but in the short-term, increasing salaries and wages in line with the inflation rate and increasing social support programs for the low income deciels and weak society should be taken into consideration. In other words, income policies that can directly or indirectly increase the level of income and thus the purchasing power of the household, can be considered as a scientific and effective solution for food security. Moreover, the social support and poverty alleviation programs should be targeted and applied according to the needs and deficiencies in different geographical, demographic and income conditions. Finally, it should be acknowledged that improving the nutritional literacy of households can increase the nutritional knowledge and awareness of households, and therefore, by improving the variety and quality of the food they consume, it can lead to an increase in food security in urban areas of Iran.

Following the exchange rate fluctuations, with the aim of preventing the jump in the prices of imported livestock and poultry feed inputs such as soybean meal and maize, Iranian government has chosen the policy of allocation preferential currency to the import of these inputs from May 2017. So, it is important to examine the effects of this policy and the amount of exchange rate pass-through to the price of soybean meal and maize.

In this study, using monthly data in the period 2009:3-2019:11, the impact of the exchange rate pass-through to the price of two imported inputs was investigated. For empirical analysis, the required data were collected from various sources such as Central Bank of Iran, State Livestock Affairs Logistic Company and International Grains Council. The estimation strategy was based on Markov Switching models. This framework allows the study to estimate the exchange rate pass-through to soybean meal and maize prices in various regimes.  

The results revealed that due to the non-linear relationship between the variables, it was appropriate to use the non-linear Markov Switching model. Also, three stable regimes were identified for maize and two stable regimes for soybean meal. Passing of the exchange rate for the price of maize in zero and one regimes was significant and in the short term, the exchange rate pass-through in the zero and one regimes was 12 and 20 percent, respectively. In the long-term, rate of passing in the mentioned regimes were estimated at 20 and 16 percent, respectively. For soybean meal., the passing rate of the exchange rate in the regime one was significant and the passing rate in the short and long term was 19 and 22, respectively. These findings indicated that exchange rate pass-through had occurred incomplete for both inputs.

Although the adoption of the preferential exchange policy started at the beginning of 2017, but since the beginning of 2019, it has been able to prevent the exchange rate fluctuations from passing completely to the price of soybean meal and maize. After the changes in the preferential currency policy, although the compensation payment to households is being implemented but it is necessary to implement the facilities for the financing of producers as demanders of imported inputs.

The import of Barley, as one of the main inputs of animal feed, has done by a preferential exchange rate during 2018 to 2019. The main question is whether this allocation was able to be transferred to its price or not. To answer this question, time series data with monthly frequency of the price of barley, its world price and the official exchange rate during the period of Farvardin 2009 to Azar 2019 and the nonlinear model of Markov switching regime change (MSIAH) have been used. The results indicated that for the barley, the exchange rate has passed in three (3) different regimes and asymmetrically. Also, in none of the regimes, complete transition did not occur and the regimes identified were stable. In the short term, exchange rate to barley price in the first regime was significant and equal to two percent (2%). In the long term, the rate of passing in this regime was equal to four percent (4%). Due to the fact that the price of Barley, the amount and the period of passing of the preferred exchange rate have been very low and short, therefore it is suggested to refrain from re-allocating the currency with any preferential rate to this input. Since the cost of red meat production increases with the liberalization of the barley import rate, it is suggested to pay compensation to households as the final link of consumption and to help finance the producers as the demanders of imported inputs.

Exchange rate is a variable that can affect the performance of economy and economic variables. By any change in the exchange rate, food prices and consequently, food consumption is affected. The exchange rate is one of the most important factors affecting the food consumption due to its effects on the price of imported goods. Fluctuations in the exchange rates and consequently, food price fluctuations, by affecting the access dimension, make it impossible to realize food security. With this approach, in the present study, the effects of fluctuations in free market exchange rates on the food consumption in rural areas of Iran were examined. In addition, in order to examine the effectiveness of government policies to control currency fluctuations over recent years, the effect of preferential currency subsidy policy on consumption in the rural areas was analyzed. Achieving these goals provides the necessary knowledge to modify current policies or adopt new currency policies. Theoretical model of the research was first explained by applying theoretical foundations and various studies. Then, the information needed to conduct the study was collected during the period of 2005-2021. Next, the stationary of the model variables was examined through Levin, Lin and Chu (LLC) and Fisher-Dickey Fuller (Fisher-ADF) tests. Finally, the short and long term relationship between variables analyzed in the formwork of ARDL panel model.  The results showed that the increase in exchange rate fluctuations reduced household consumption in rural areas in the short and long terms; in addition, although the preferential currency subsidy policy had a positive and significant effect on the household consumption, this effect was not noticeable. On the other hand, based on the results, the price index of food groups had a negative effect on the food consumption in the rural areas of Iran in the short and long terms and by contrast, the increase in household income had a positive and significant effect on the food consumption in the rural areas in the short and long terms. Finally, the results of the Error Correction Model (ECM) showed that due to the low speed of adjustment, currency shocks had a long lasting effect (nearly two years) on food prices in Iran's economy. According to the study results, the preferential currency policy does not provide the possibility of achieving the goal of food consumption stability; therefore, it is necessary to remove it and use managed floating currency policies. With the removal of the mentioned policy in order to support the food security of the weak classes of the society in the short term, the distribution of food packages through trustee institutions including the relief foundation and the welfare organization can be considered. The cash-in-kind payment policy is also one of the policies that can provide more appropriate distribution of subsidies in the short term. However, in the long term, increasing or stabilizing the purchasing power of people, especially the low-income and weak classes, is only possible through employment creation policies as well as strengthening production and supply.

 Dietary diversity is a feature of healthy diets. This is because essential nutrients are not present in one type of food at the same time, rather, they are found in a diet consisting of several nutrients. However, in recent years, the food tastes of Iranian families have shifted to high-calorie and non-nutritional value foods, which has increased the number of patients with non-communicable diseases in the country. The choice and acceptance of different diets depends on environmental, economic, socio-cultural and psychological factors.

 Since ensuring health and food security is one of the strategic goals of the country 20-year vision document, the present study evaluates the dietary diversity of households and its effective factors in Tehran province. To achieve this goal, the raw information of household expenditure-income in 2020 has been used. In the present study, the Berry dietary diversity index (BI) was used to quantify the dietary diversity variable and the order logit model was used to investigate and evaluate the effect of demographic, economic and social variables on it.

 The results showed that only 23.2% of Tehran households have high dietary diversity and 76.8% of households have low or medium dietary diversity. Based on the results, the variables of head household age, place of residence, working hours of household head and household income level has a positive (direct) association and in contrast, the variables of head of household literacy, household size and employment status of head of household in a negative (inverse) direction affect the level of dietary diversity of households in Tehran province.

 The food diversity of households in Tehran province is very low. If the food price level is low and stable, increasing incomes can lead consumers to diversify their food baskets and move from consuming low-value cereals and root and tuber products to consuming high-nutrition foods such as meat, dairy, and fruits and vegetables. In this regard, a review of the experience of many European, Latin American and Asian countries shows that stability in food prices along with cash aid and targeted food packages can increase consumption and food diversity of households and food security in poor households, especially women and children. Families living in Tehran province, which have a larger population, have less food diversity. As the household dimension increases, the minimum food needs increase; this reduces the volume and quality of food available to the household and leads to food insecurity. In the current situation, the country is struggling with economic problems caused by sanctions, inflation, unemployment. Continuation of this, along with lack of effective support for families, can deprive families of the ability and facilities to have more children due to food insecurity. Accordingly, the correct and complete design and implementation of incentive policies and support for large families is necessary. Finally, the role and importance of education and literacy of households in their food diversity is very high. In this regard, responsible organizations can play an important role in obtaining, processing and understanding nutrition information and how to access credible information sources through culture and specialized and general training in food literacy.

According to reports from the Iranian Ministry of Health, the food insecurity situation in Tehran province is serious and a significant part of the province's population is facing a lack of nutrients in the food basket; this has led to an increase in the incidence of various diseases among Tehranian households. In this regard, although with the decision of the Working Group on Health and Food Security and the participation of various executive bodies, especially during 2000s and 2010s, various programs have been carried out to improve food security in Tehran province, but the spread of various deficiencies and diseases in the province is likely to be as a result of an unfavorable pattern and food insecurity. Since ensuring health and food security is one of the strategic goals of the 20-year Iran Development Perspective Document, in this study, based on the classification of the commodity groups of the Statistical Center of Iran (SCI) and using the nutritional performance matrix, the food consumption patterns were initially identified in different income deciles of Tehran province; then, following the calculation of food security index for these deciles, the effect of income levels on food security of the households was investigated using the logit model. The results showed that the middle and upper income deciles had more valuable and diverse food baskets than the lower deciles of the society and the consumption of grains and fats among them was lower and in return, they had a higher consumption of legumes, sugar and sweets, meat, fresh fruits, milk, dairy and eggs, nuts, beverages and ready food. Based on the study findings, the variables of membership in the top three income deciles, age of household head, place of residence, size of home, employment of  household head, household income and food diversity had a significantly positive effect on the household food security and the variables of membership in the bottom three income deciles,  gender of household head, place of residence, household size and working hours of the household head had a significantly negative effect on the food security of households.

in this study, the supply and demand functions of products including red meat, chicken, eggs and milk were first specified and then estimated in the form of a system of simultaneous equations.Then, the demand elasticity of the models was used to calculate the changes in the welfare of consumers of protein products under in two cases, after removing the subsidy of the preferred currency and the 35,000 Toman currency scenario. The results of estimating the supply function of red meat, chicken, egg and milk showed that the supply of livestock and protein products is inelastic than the price and with the increase of input prices, the supply of these products decreases. Based on the results of the demand function, the prices of red meat, chicken, eggs and milk have a negative and significant effect on the demand for these products. Also based on the results of red meat, chicken and fish are substitutes; In addition, red meat, chicken, eggs and milk are considered necessary commodities for consumers. Finally, the results showed that by removing the preferential currency subsidy and changing the price of each kilogram of red meat, chicken meat, eggs and milk in the market to 191,324, 55,236, 38,564 and 12,513 tomans, respectively, the welfare surplus of protein product consumers is equal to 318,468 thousand billion Toman has decreased.

The rapid acceleration of inflation over the past decade has increased the cost of living in the metropolitan area of Tehran. The World Food Program (WFP) report shows that Tehran province has the highest rate of welfare inequality compared to other provinces in Iran, and a significant portion of the province's population has only abdominal satiety. This has led to an increase in short stature, cardiovascular disease, cancer, obesity, diabetes, tooth decay and gastrointestinal diseases among Tehran families. In this regard, although with the decision of the Working Group on Health and Food Security and the participation of various agencies, programs have been carried out to improve the level of health and nutrition of the residents of the province, but the prevalence of various deficiencies and diseases may be due to lack of nutrients in the food basket and as a result of food insecurity.

Since ensuring health and food security is one of the strategic goals of the 20-year vision document of the country, in the present study, households living in Tehran province were first divided into three lower income deciles, four middle deciles and three upper income deciles according to the raw data of the income expenditure of the Statistics Center of Iran. Then based on the classification of the commodity group of the Statistics Center of Iran and using the nutritional performance matrix, the level of nutrient intake in different income deciles of Tehran province in 2018 has been investigated. Then, using the Matching method, nutrient consumption, the diversity and food security of the province's income deciles have been analyzed.

The results showed that the level of calcium, iron and vitamin C intake among households in the lower three deciles of Tehran province is very low and an adult received only about 14, 487 and 75 mg of these three nutrients per day. As for other nutrients, an adult in the lower three deciles of income received protein and vitamin A 72 mg and 551 micrograms, respectively which is at the minimum daily requirement and only carbohydrates and vitamin B1 has been received 339 g and 1.5 mg, respectively which is above the minimum daily requirement. It should be noted that in all income deciles, the level of carbohydrate intake is more than triple the daily threshold required by an adult (130 g). Finally, according to the results, the lower three deciles of income have lower diversity and food security than the other deciles.

Considering the current situation of receiving micronutrients in Tehran province, the culture and nutritional literacy of households has a great importance and role that responsible organizations can play an important role in promoting it through culture as well as specialized and general education. At the same time, the stability of food prices along with the provision of cash grants and targeted food packages can increase the consumption and food diversity of households and significantly increase food security in poor households, especially women and children. In this regard, considering that a significant part of the country's resources is wasted annually in the form of hidden and non-targeted subsidies, Iran ranks first in the world in the payment of non-targeted food and fuel subsidies, therefore, targeting subsidies and paying cash and non-cash subsidies with proper identification of the target community, in accordance with the conditions of the country is an important issue that should be considered by policy makers.

In the second half of 2010, the severe fluctuation of food prices has increased the number of poor people in the world. Therefore, the food prices have become important matter for many developing countries over the past decade. This study investigates how food commodities global prices are passed on to domestic prices in Iran. For this purpose, the Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) method and regime dependent impulse response functions and quarterly data for rice, wheat, sugar and vegetable oils were used. The results show that the MS-VAR model provides a suitable framework for modeling the price pass-through of these products. According to the findings, there is a considerable difference in the pass-through magnitude between the regimes. The pass-through extent in second regime is much higher than first regime for all products. In other words, the substantial change in the price pass-through mechanism has occurred with global food price crisis. Therefore, it is suggested that the relevant policies such as import tariffs and restrictions implement with respect to world prices and domestic prices reaction.

Global food price crisis and its pass-through to domestic food prices has attracted especial attention from researchers and policymakers over the past decade in developing countries. In this study, by using quarterly data from 1990:Q2 to 2013:Q1, we estimate the Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) and Markov Switching Vector Auto-Regressive (MS-VAR) models and then the impulse response functions were used to measure the extent of world food prices pass-through into domestic food prices, in Iran. According to the diagnostic statistics, MSIAH(2)-VAR(1) specification has a better fit to data than the linear VAR model. The results showed that the magnitude of the world food prices pass-through to domestic food price index in first and second regimes is respectively 0.15 and 0.40 after four quarters. Therefore, the extent of the pass-through from world food prices to domestic food price index resulting from recent world food price crisis has been higher than before. These results suggested that much more attention should be given to the magnitude of global food prices pass-through in policy designing. The policymakers can reduce the global food prices pass-through into domestic prices by adopting inflation targeting policies and appreciation of the domestic currency.

This paper investigates whether global food price shocks have been affected consumer price index in Iran. For this purpose, we estimate the pass-through of global food price inflation to domestic consumer price index using Markov Switching Vector Auto-Regressive (MS-VAR) and Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) models and quarterly data from 1990:2 to 2015:1. With respect to the linearity test results, the MS-VAR model has better fit to data than linear VAR model. According to the information criteria statistics, the MSIAH(2)-VAR(1) specification is the chosen kind of MS-VAR model. The results show that the magnitude of global food prices pass-through to the consumer price index in the first and second regime is 0.05 and 0.35 after a year, respectively. Pass-through effect increases in second year that higher in second regime than first regime. The pass-through magnitude in first and second regime is 0.12 and 0.85 after two years, respectively. Because of substantial amount of agricultural inputs and food imports, the Iranian policymakers can limit the pass-through of global prices to domestic prices by applying the inflation targeting policies.

Given the large weight of food in the households’ consumption basket and its limited substitutability with other goods, food price fluctuations are of sizeable impacts on overall consumer prices. The reaction of the food prices to monetary shocks has been the subject of much empirical researches in the recent years. This study examines the impact of monetary shocks on food prices in Iran. To do this, the study adopts Johansen-Juselius and Error-Correction models using time-series data over the period 1973-2008. Using Hodrick-Prescott filter, the monetary shocks were obtained. The results showed that in the long-run positive monetary shocks have significant effects on food prices in Iran. Therefore, policies and strategies should be such that minimize the negative effects of monetary shocks on the food prices.

Iran is a heavily oil dependent country and imports relatively high amounts of agricultural products. A number of studies in recent years indicate that oil price shocks affect food price in Iran. The aim of this paper is considering the impact of oil price shocks among other variables such as food production، real per capita income، intra industry trade and liquidity on food price in Iran. For this purpose، Hodrick-Prescott filter were used to obtain the oil price shocks using annual observations for 1975-2008 period. Then، Johanson-Joselius and Error-Correction models applied to estimate long and short term relations. The results revealed that co- integration among all variables is existed and oil price shocks significantly affect food price in the long run. The error correction term (-0. 18) is found to be negative suggesting a slow adjustment process.

Nowadays, forecast economic variables play an important role in economic planning and policy making and a variety of methods to forecasting economic variables are used. Although it may be accurate in some cases is not important in predicting, but obviously many variables to predict the short-term policy is important.
Due to the importance of industry and its share in GDP, in order to predict the value added of the industrial sector in Iran during the period 1340-1389, in this paper four methods have been evaluated: Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Fuzzy Regression (FR), Single Exponential Smoothing with Trend (SEST) and Double Exponential Smoothing with Trend (DEST). Comparing the accuracy of predictions, based on two criteria RMSE and R2 indicated that single exponential smoothing with trend (SEST) and fuzzy regression (FR) had the best results in forecasting the value added of the industrial sector in Iran.

Since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates، both real and nominal exchange rates have fluctuated widely. Empirical findings indicate significant impact of exchange rate uncertainty on macroeconomic variables such as output، trade، and investment. This article investigates the impact of the real exchange rate uncertainty on total factor productivity (TFP) in agriculture sector of Iran during the period of 1974-2007. The uncertainty of real exchange rate is defined as the conditional variances obtained from Exponential Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model. The econometric estimation using Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach shows that the real exchange rate uncertainty has a significant and negative effect on TFP in Iran''s agriculture sector in long- and short term. According to the results، in order to reduce the real exchange rate uncertainty، it is recommended that the appropriate policies should be made by policymakers to lessen the difference between nominal and real exchange rates.

Tourism industry plays a major role in creating job opportunities and income generation in all countries and it has grown remarkably in recent decades. Iran has a unique situation in tourism industry due to its amazing ancient monuments and natural attractions. Therefore، developing the tourism industry can be a suitable way to improve Iranian economy and can reduce its dependence on oil income. The purpose of this paper is modeling and forecasting seasonal flows of tourist arrivals into Iran. Moreover the forecasting accuracy of methods is compared. There are different methods that can be used to forecast the economic variables. Today forecasting is regarded as an important instrument for economic policymakers. In order to deal with seasonality، Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Approach (ARIMA) processes have been generalized. When modeling time series with systematic seasonal movements، Box and Jenkins recommend the use of Seasonal Autoregressive (SAR) and Seasonal Moving Average (SMA) terms. Therefore، we utilized the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Approach (SARIMA) and seasonal integration model based on seasonal unit root test. We used Hylleberg et al. HEGY test is used for unit root testing. HEGY developed separate regression based T and F tests for unit roots at various frequencies in the quarterly data. The seasonal data about the number of tourist arrivals to Iran was obtained from the Iranian Cultural Heritage and Tourism Organization. Time scope covers 44 seasons، from 2001 to 2010. Discussion and Quarterly series of tourist arrivals shows the periodic behavior. HEGY test results indicate the presence of non-stationary tourist arrivals series. Therefore SARIMA and seasonal integration models are fitted into the data. In order to achieve stationary series، these time series need to be seasonally differentiated. In the next step، SARIMA and seasonal integration models were estimated. ARIMA (1،1،0) (1،1،1) 4 model identified as the best model among the SARIMA candidates. Finally، two indicators including RMSE (root mean squared error)، MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) were employed in order to measure the performance of models. This study has discussed about two kinds of seasonal models including seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average approach (SARIMA) and seasonal integration model. Results of HEGY’s seasonal unit root test demonstrated that seasonality unit root exists in the tourist arrivals to Iran. Furthermore، the comparison of forecasting accuracy revealed that seasonal integration model has high accuracy more than seasonal ARIMA model. Thus، the seasonal integration model was selected as best model to forecast of tourism arrivals to Iran. This result is important to decision makers to evaluate tourism arrivals.

Price volatility is affecting consumers and producers welfare. The extent to which food price news contributes to volatility is most important for policymakers. Hence, the goal of this paper is the survey the impact of news on price volatility of chicken, mutton and beef in Iran. For this purpose, the various types of non-linear GARCH models were estimated using monthly meat price data for the period of 1992:1-2011:12. Findings show that EGARCH is the best model to Exploiting Asymmetries in the News Impact Curve. According to results, conditional heteroscedasticity of beef, mutton and chicken price is non-symmetry. In other words, price volatility of these commodities has asymmetric response to good and bad news. Moreover, high-price news increase the price volatility of these products and low-price news stabilizes price just in chicken market. Therefore it is recommended that policymakers design policies with respect to movement of expected prices.