دکتر یونس سلمانی

Floating rate issuance is one of the financial innovations that has attracted the attention of the ‎public and private sectors in recent decades. Basically, financiers are looking for access to less ‎expensive financial resources, and investors are also looking for high-yield, low-risk investment ‎opportunities. Accordingly, the design of this tool should be in a way to bring the utility of both ‎parties to a satisfactory point, which is provided according to the conditions, expectations and ‎economic policies. When the government enters as an economic policy maker, this issue takes on ‎other dimensions, so the issue of economic management of the country, management of ‎government debts and liabilities, the amount of money and liquidity, formation of interest rates in ‎the economy and its relationship with budget deficits, management of economic cycles and its ‎determination is of great importance that should be considered in the design of this tool. Treasury ‎inflation protected securities are a type of floating-rate securities that are often issued by ‎governments, so they need to be studied more carefully in order to be more localized. The present ‎article uses a descriptive-analytical method to examine the advantages and disadvantages of ‎issuing securities for the government. The results of this study show that the economic effects of ‎Treasury Inflation Protected Securities are very different from floating-rate securities, and given ‎the current economic situation of the country with high and variable inflation rates, treasury ‎inflation protected securities are recommended.‎

Wood and wood products are used as a productive input as well as the final consumer goods of households. Part of this need comes from imports. Imports depend mostly on exchange rate developments, and importers respond differently to negative and positive currency shocks depending on currency conditions. Given the importance of this issue, the present study examines the asymmetric effects of foreign exchange shocks on wood imports and wood products in Iran, with an emphasis on the environment of foreign exchange shocks. In this regard, the EGARCH approach over the period 1974-2017 was used to model the formation of shocks and the data panel regression approach over the period 1993-2017 was used to investigate the asymmetric effects of shocks on wood imports and its products. The results show that the effect of negative and positive shocks on the amount of wood imports and its products is asymmetric. Trade openness reflects the ease of trade between Iran and its trading partners. The turbulent environment has reduced the impact of positive currency shock and increased negative impact of currency shock on the amount of raw wood imports, types of paper, and paper as final goods. The positive currency shock of the turbulent formation environment strengthens the effects of the exchange rate transition on the amount of finished goods and paper pulp. Positive and negative shocks have an asymmetric effect on the exchange rate environment. The effect of positive shocks is greater than negative shocks.

In the Iranian economy, a part of the financial needs and liabilities of the government is always financed by the Central Bank. With an increase in the government debts to the Central Bank, monetary policy gets passive and implemented in line with fiscal policies. Consequently, the functions of the monetary policy are disrupted, and it deviates from its goals. This can have undesirable impacts on the macro-economy. So, this study aims at the macroeconomic effects of the government debts to the Central Bank in Iran during the period of 1973-2017. To this end, a SVAR model is used. The result of the research showed that the government debt to the Central Bank has had no significant effect on the ratio of aggregate demand to aggregate supply, real exchange rate and the relative price of non-tradable goods to tradable goods, but it has significantly increased the prices over a period of three years and decreased the GDP over two years. In the long run, the government debt to the Central Bank has explained 10.8 percent of variation in the general level of prices and 11.25 percent of variation in the GDP per person. These results indicate that the Fiscal Dominance and the Fiscal Theory of Price Level ‎can account for this situation in the Iranian economy.

this study seeks to examine the effect of targeted subsidies on the demand for raw and semi-processed wood (wood Russian, MDF Melamine, MDF Higlass, Chipboard, Litron and Door Cover) in khorramabad City during the period of 2009-2016. The data of the present study was compiled seasonally from spring 2009 to winter of 2016 by documentary and from the 7th wholesale sales offices of this city and analyzed usingthe almost ideal demand system (AIDS). The results showed that the purposefulness of subsidies had a structural failure due to the demand pattern of wood and wood products. In other words, the demand pattern of people before and after the targeting of subsidies is different, which means that the reaction of the applicants of each product to their prices, the price of other products and changes in income before and after the purpose of subsidies has changed.

One of the major problems in Iranian economy is continuous deficit in the budget operating balance due to the non-optimal government size. The government often financed a part of this deficit by debt cearation. Government debts depends on its size and decomposition have variety macroeconomic effects. So, this study investigated the macroeconomic effects of government debt in iran during 1352-1393 by a SVAR model. the result showed that government debt to Nondepository Institutions leads to aggregate demand surplus, increasing of relative price of nontradable goods to tradable goods and decreasing of gdp. The debt to central bank increase price level and decrease gdp. Finally, government debt to other Depository Institutions leads to aggregate demand surplus, increasing of real exchange rate, decreasing of relative price of nontradable goods to tradable goods, decreasing of general price level and increasing of gdp. Also, according to the results of variance decomposition, the government can control a significant part of short run and long run macroeconomic fluctuations by managing its debts

The government debt management policy is mainly based on capital market instruments. Under This ‎mechanism, frozen and unproductive resources used for countercyclical fiscal policies. Nevertheless, the ‎policy in Iran is mainly based on funds of the banking system and Nondepository Institutions, and capital ‎market is passively influenced by it. This could lead to inefficiencies in government debt management ‎policies as well as the volatility of the capital market. so, this study investigated direct and indirect effects ‎of various Iranian government debt on stock market by using SVAR during 2005:q2-2016:q2.‎
The results showed that effects of government debt on stock market are mostly indirectly and through ‎channel of economic variables. As real exchange rate, ratio of price of non-trade goods to trade and general ‎level of prices has a negative effect and an increase in GDP has a positive effect on real price of the shares. ‎These economic variables also significantly affected by government debts.‎‏ ‏Among types of government ‎debt, only government debt to Nondepository institutions has a direct and significant effect on real price of ‎shares. Based on these results, capital market is passively influenced by the government debt management, ‎while development of government financial instruments in framework of capital market leads to 1) ‎government to get flexible in itself debt managment and minimizes undesirable it’s outcomes, 2) it will ‎contribute to the development of the capital market,‎‏ ‏if the capital market capacity is considered at issuance ‎of government securities, and also government is disciplined in Settlement of securities.‎‏ ‏

Presence of moral hazard and adverse selection in insurance market increase premiums and lead to exit of high risk aversion individuals from the insurance market resulting in a loss of efficiency. Knowledge of insurance demand elasticities and measurement of the welfare effects of higher premiums, would help insurers adopt suitable remedial policies. This paper investigates this issue for individual insurances using AIDS during the period of 2006-2013. Marshallian and income elasticities indicate a weak relationship gross relationship between individual insurances. Furthermore, we find that life insurance is a luxury good and that supplementary care insurance and accident insurance are necessities. Hicks and Allen elasticities also suggest a weak net substitutability relationship between individual insurances studied. This relationship is stronger for life and accident insurances. According to E.V. and C.V. indices, the insurer, with the aim of reducing inefficiencies, can charge lump sum amounts instead of increasing premiums for low risk aversion individuals. If the insurer decides to increase premiums, it should compensate high risk aversion individuals by payments. Amounts transferred in the first case are much smaller than in the second case.

This paper aims to evaluate and compare the convergence of market agricultural products in D8 and G7 countries using gravity model during 1995-2012. According to results, the gravity model explains about 79 and 96 percent of the agricultural sector trade arrangements between D8 and G7Countries, respectively. The results also showed that the estimated coefficient of added value variable in agricultural sector of i and j countries in G7 and D8 groups is positive. Estimated Linder coefficient index is not significant for G7 countries but was significant and positive for D8 countries. Estimated population index of the country i is significant and equals to - 3.25, and 1.69 for D8 G7 countries which is not significant. Estimated population index of country i for D8 and G7 countries are 0.69 and 0.41 respectively. The estimated exchange rate coefficient of country i for the G7 and D8 groups is positive and significant while the estimated exchange rate coefficients of country j is negative for both groups of countries.

Inflation rate in different countries can be considered as a positive or negative phenomenon¡ depending on the circumstances of each society; however¡ if inflationary shocks lead to inflation uncertainty¡ this will impair the optimum allocation of resources and price system function¡ and will in turn impose macro-economic costs on the enterprises. Due to the impact of these costs and rational behavior of economic agents on determining the expected inflation¡ the inflation rate may also be increased. Therefore¡ this study has reviewed the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Iran with an emphasis on rational expectations during the period of 1990 Q1-2015 Q4. Using EGARCH model¡ inflation uncertainty modeling showed that positive and negative inflationary shocks play an asymmetric role in the formation of inflation uncertainty. Also¡ Granger causality test and impulse response functions showed that an unanticipated inflation increase can lead to inflation uncertainty. The variance analyses also indicated that about more than 76 % of changes in inflation uncertainty can be explained in the long run¡ using unanticipated inflation¡ and also more than 16% of changes in expected inflation explained using inflation uncertainly.
In this study¡ the ARCH family models were used for modeling the fluctuation¡ the Granger causality to examine the causality between inflation uncertainty and inflation (unanticipated and anticipated) ¡ and the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) to analyze the revealed causes.
EGARCH model has some advantages over other asymmetric models such as threshold Arch (TGARGH) including 1) logarithmic transformations requires the positive conditional variance; 2) evaluation is not sensitive to outlier observations; 3) this model is not limited to parameters and is sufficient for stability of EGARCH process. In the present study¡ standard Granger causality test (1986) is used to determine if there is any relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty. This test assumes that important data to predict each variable lies in the time series data related to it. In fact¡ Granger (1969) stated if the current value is predicted using past value ¡ in this case¡ is called the cause of. Granger causality test to investigate the hypothesis¡ «is not the Granger cause of» ¡ or vice versa¡ uses a vector autoregressive model (VAR).
After Granger causality test¡ through the impulse response functions and variance analysis in vector auto regression (VAR) ¡ better evidence of influence in the Granger causality has been obtained. In fact¡ based on the estimation of the VAR¡ also used byGranger causality test¡ the coefficients and the percentage of Explanatory model parameters is not as important as single-equation methods; therefore¡ the impulse response function (impulse response) and the variance analysis have been used in the analyses. Since the impulse response function measures the time path of impulse effect on the future status of a dynamic system¡ the effects of impulse can be seen in VAR patterns. The impulse response on variables assumes that the system is balanced¡ and the balance is in the coordinate system¡ so that all variables are equal to zero in equilibrium. The effect of the impulses once called a temporary variable¡ will return to its previous equilibrium value after several time periods; if this variable does not return to zero and is not settled in different balance amounts¡ it will be called a permanent impact. Variance analysis can measure the relative strength of Granger causality chain or exogenous degree of variables¡ regardless of the measured period¡ so the analysis of variance can be called causality test out of the sample period. This method can determine the role of imported shocks to different variables in explaining the anticipated error variance in short term and long term.
Results of Granger causality test showed Granger causality is not inflation uncertainty¡ and inflation uncertainty is neither unanticipated inflation Granger causality. On the other hand¡ unanticipated inflation is inflation uncertainty Granger causality¡ and inflation uncertainty is anticipated inflation Granger causality.
The results of this study showed that an unpredicted shock to the size of one standard deviation in inflation will increase inflation uncertainty as much as 0. 27158% in the first chapter¡ this increase reaches its peak in the second season (2. 85 511%) ¡ then the positive effects begin to decline¡ then turn to almost zero in Season XVI. The procedure of the effects of inflationary unanticipated shocks can be used to explain the changes of inflation uncertainty in Iran as much as 2. 82% in the first season¡ and more than 76 % in the long run. Also¡ an unforeseen shock to the size of one standard deviation in inflation will increase the expected inflation volatility from the second season¡ and this additive process will be positive for 20 years. The climax of this impact is in season 4 (0. 48354%). The effects of inflation uncertainty can display the changes of anticipated inflation as 3% in the second season¡ and more than 16 percent in the long term. Therefore¡ the results suggest that if inflation can (not) be predictable¡ then there will (not) be the rational expectations approach based on inflation uncertainty. Due to the rational behavior¡ inflation uncertainty lead to higher inflation rate.
Conclusions and recommendations: The results of this study show that isodiametric positive and negative inflation shocks are contributed to form the inflation uncertainty asymmetrically¡ and positive shocks spread more uncertainty. The results of Granger also show that Friedman hypothesis about inflation uncertainty caused by increasing inflation is not true for nonanticipated inflation in Iran¡ and the expected inflation has rejected this hypothesis. Also¡ Cukierman and Meltzer hypothesis about the causality result of inflation uncertainty has been confirmed in anticipated inflation and rejected in nonanticipated inflation.

The structural budget deficit is one of the most important problems of developing countries. They borrow from the banking system, the private sector or outside world to finance this deficit. This approach can have different effects on the economy with regard to the composition and structure of debt and economic conditions of countries. The present study investigated the short-run and long-run effects of government debt on economic growth of Iran using ARDL in the period of 1975 to 2013.
Results showed that the ratio of government debt to GDP has a negative impact on economic growth. This impact on economic growth model based on oil revenues is more than the model based on non-oil GDP, also that in long run more than short term. Also results indicated the importance of physical capital is remarkable in both models in the short-term and long-term, but the human capital is significant only in non-oil growth pattern.

The recent economic growth theories believe that the inovation developed in response to economic incentives is the main engine of technological progress and economic growth traditionally. Thus this study investigates the role of capital and R&D activities in Iran, Turkey and Malaysia with distributed lag regression during 1981-2012. The result indicates that in the long term, in Malaysia, impact of R&D activities, is sustainable and more stable on economic growth in comparison with Iran and Turkey. Also the R&D investment compared with physical capital has a greater impacton economic growth inTurkey and Iran.

Improvement of labor productivity is one of the main objectives of the economic firms. Consequently, identification of the factors that affect the productivity was significantly considered by the economists. Entreprenership is one of the factors that affect the labor force productivity. Overall, entrepreneurship prepares the ground for efficient application of new technologies in the society. Moroever, entrepreneurship support the knowledge and technologies to new goods and services and increases the labor productivity. The current study is gathering the effects of development of entrepreneurship on improvement of labor force productivity in developed and developing countries using GLS regression. The results show that in both groups of countries, human capital has an equal effect on improvement of productivity. However, the effect of per capita physical capital on labor productivity is significantly different in developed and developing countries. It is worth noting that GEDI, entrepreneurial attitudes and entrepreneurial activities indices have significant and positive effect on improvement of labor force productivity in both developing and developed countries. However, the effect of entrepreneurial aspirations on improvement of labor productivity is posititve and insignificant. The results of the current study show that the coefficient of entrepreneurial attitudes and activities in developing countries is less effective on labor productivity compared to developed countries.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of corporate governance in corporate tax planning.The features of the used corporate governance include the size of board of directors, the size of off duty board, the stability of the position of CEO and financial specialty of the board. Tax planning is measured by GAAP and cash ETR (Effective Tax Rate).In order to test the research hypotheses, financial information of 54 firms from 2009 to 2013 was used and multiple regression analysis was employed as the statistics method. The results show that corporate planning mostly exists in the firms with fewer board members. In addition, the more off duty board members in a firm and the more stable the position of the CEO, the more corporate tax planning. The findings of the research do not show a clear effect of the financial specialty of the board on tax planning. The findings, however, indicate that the firms with higher ROA have more tax planning but financiall everage has no effect on tax planning. The effect of firm size on tax planning is not clear either.

The Economy Affected by Oil Price Shocks when that’s Similar Shocks Didn’t occurred in nearest recent period. In other hands، the relationship between oil price shocks and the Iran economy changed by economic structural changes. For these reasons، present study has been investigate the effects of unforeseen oil price shocks on economic growth during the period 1367. 1 -1389. 4 using Markov switching model. The Results show that the impact of positive unforeseen oil price shocks on economic growth are lesser and more durable than negative shocks. Also they unable to ensure the high economic growth but they lead to the state of middle economic growth. In return، although negative shocks are not able to keep the economy in a state of low economic growth، but they can be prevented the economy to achieve a status of high economic growth.

The achievement to the sustainable economic growth with stabilize volatility is the main objectives of economic policy makers in various countries. Because of continuously oil prices change, which interpreted as shock, the importance of this issue is more prominent in countries associated with international oil markets. Beneficiaries and incur losses countries from future oil price shocks are quite randomly, due to the random nature of the most of them. While, the economy of both importing and oil exporting countries will be admittedly hurt by crude oil price volatility. In present study, oil price volatility is modeling with ARCH family models and so the effect of oil price volatility on Sustainable Economic Growth in Iran and Japan economic is investigated using Markov Switching models. Results of modeling of the volatility show that the role of oil price shocks in development of price volatility is asymmetric. Also the base of Markov Switching models, the hurt of oil price volatility on economic growth of Iran is more than Japan by three regimes. As oil price volatility is one of the causes of low economic growth and, the existence of the oil price volatility, achieve to the sustainable economic growth for the economy of Iran is very difficult. The oil prices volatility, against, just prevents the Japanese economy to achieves the high economic growth. So that the existence of the oil price volatility, the Japanese economy is able to promote sustainable economic growth to the average economic growth state and probability of switching of its status to status of lower economic growth is very low.

In this research, the effect of maturity, trade volume and open interests on gold coin future price volatility in Iran commodity market have been studied since Dey 1387 to Shahrivar 1391.For doing that we can utilize two approach. In first approach, by considering 27 contracts separately, we perceived that the effect of trade volume is meaningful and positive. As we expected, the effect of maturity and open interests are negative, but it’s not meaningful. In second approach, by using time series observation during sample period, the effect of trade volume and open interests on future price volatility have been studied. As a result, we find that the effect of trade volume and open interests on future price volatility is positive and negative respectively. Both of these effects are meaningful, but,the former is substantially more than the latter.

Supply and development of ICT is considered as an important factor of ICT demand in line of macro plan of each country. In this regard، the relationship development of provinces with ICT services and ICT infrastructure is investigated among households of provinces in the Iran. In order to evaluate the level of ICT services and infrastructure، we applied introduced «IDI International index» with three separate subgroups (access، use، skills). The estimate results show; by increasing size of household، demand for ICT will be grown up. Also household are following from last year consumption habits. In evaluating the relationship development of ICT services and ICT infrastructures، skills subgroup has had most effect on growing of household expenditure on ICT. As a result investment on user skills level increases usage of ICT facilities. Finally access subgroup that was related to investment in ICT infrastructure and facilities causes more growth in ICT demand