دکتر مهدی میرمظاهری

Today, governance has become one of the broadest interdisciplinary concepts in the literature of administration and policy-making in the world, and various fields in government and governance, from the economic and industrial sector to the social fields, try to apply this knowledge. “Anticipatory governance” is a way of decision-making that constantly examines the horizon of changes that require adaptation in our plans and behavior. The research is "applied" in terms of purpose and "qualitative" in terms of nature with an exploratory approach. The community of this research is articles in the field of "Anticipatory governance" jointly or separately. The method of collecting information is a document-library method with a Meta-synthesis method for extracting factors. By using the method of Meta-Synthesis of codes, themes and categories of "anticipatory governance" were extracted. The findings of this research show that predictive anticipatory has five dimensions: "Cultural", "Network", "Foresight", "Policymaking" and "Feedback", which is shown in the conceptual model of the research. At the end, a number of suggestions have been provided for those in charge of governance affairs.

Audio media is one of the basic components of countrys' media sphere. In the future, this media sphere and, accordingly, the audio media, will be exposed to many uncertainties and ambiguities related to technological developments and cultural, social, political and economic changes. The goal of future research is to clarify the future and increase human knowledge and understanding of it. This research has been carried out with the aim of compiling the future scenario of audio media. The research was conducted based on the theory of media convergence using scenario planning method. The sample size was selected purposefully and the results were obtained based on categories extracted from documentary studies, theoretical foundations and field study. Based on the findings of the research, 81 factors and components were identified from the analysis of the environment; Also, 17 effective drivers and 6 key uncertainties were identified after examining discussion. The ranking of these factors was done according to the opinion of experts, based on the two criteria of "importance" and "uncertainty", and based on the two key uncertainties with the highest weight, i.e. "technology" and "volume of audio content consumption", the matrix of scenarios was formed and Four scenarios of "Smart Radio", "I am the user", "Mr. Broadcaster" and "Coexistence with technology" were developed. The results showed that the smart radio scenario can be considered as a favorable scenario. At the end, according to each identified scenario, practical solutions are presented that will help the effective policy makers and decision makers of IRIB radio.

In addition to various definitions of policy making, various quantitative and qualitative techniques for policymaking have been presented by researchers. However, about which of the techniques is more suitable for which stage of the policymaking process; Notable model is not provided. In this regard, the investigation of the public policy process and the techniques mentioned in it and the study of future research methods were the driving force of the idea of whether it is possible to provide a basis for macro-level policy makers by combining the policy process and future research methods. so that they can use one or more techniques in each policy stage. In other words, the purpose of this article is to explain the relationship between policy making, types of futures and levels of uncertainty and to provide a prescription for each. In this article, with the method of library collection, related documents were identified and the "dynamic adaptive policymaking" method was proposed for policy making in conditions of uncertainty. Then, by interviewing the available experts, the obtained results were approved by the experts.

External and environmental analysis are the main step of strategy formulation. Environmental monitoring assists to find the best opportunities and threats for companies. Based on Iran's rich petroleum and gas resources, petrochemical industries have an important role in Iran's economic development. Therefore, external analysis is quite necessary for this industry. In this paper, we study environmental analysis models. These models are divided into macro and micro models. We propose a three layered model for external analysis of Iran's petrochemical industry. The proposed model is essential for key management and finding opportunities and threats in Iran's Petrochemical development.