abdulrahim hashemi dizaj

Economic growth and development over the past two decades in developing countries have clearly demonstrated the many effects of financial market cycles on economic activities in these countries. Instability and change in financial markets shape financial cycles, which in turn disrupt economic activities and reduce the economic growth of countries. Therefore, given the importance of the effects of financial cycles on economic growth, the aim of this study is to analyze and investigate the effects of asymmetric financial cycles on economic growth in Iraq.

The present study analyzes and investigates the short-term and long-term effects of asymmetric financial cycles on economic growth in Iraq during the period 1990-2023 in the form of econometric models and methods. For this purpose, the autoregressive model with asymmetric distribution lag (NARDL) is used. This model is an extended form of the autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) model.

The results showed that in the long run, positive financial cycles have a positive and significant effect and negative financial cycles have a negative and significant effect on Iraq's economic growth. Also, foreign trade, exchange rate, active labor force, physical capital and foreign direct investment have a positive and significant effect, and oil revenues have a negative and significant effect on Iraq's economic growth. The explanatory and control variables (asymmetric financial cycles, foreign trade, exchange rate, physical capital, active labor force, foreign direct investment and oil revenues) also explain and show 75 percent of the changes in the target variable (Iraqi economic growth).

Given that financial cycles and foreign trade have the greatest impact on economic growth in the short and long run, therefore, monitoring credit expansion through macroprudential policies is essential to maintain financial stability in this country. Also, the Iraqi government can lead to increased economic growth by gradually creating conditions and establishing appropriate and necessary laws and regulations to expand commercial freedom and increase trade.

Information and Communication Technology and competitiveness are mentioned as factors affecting economic growth in the last decade. In line with this discussion, the aim of this study is to examine the impact of information and communication technology and the competitiveness index on economic growth of selected developing and developed countries during the study period.

The present study uses an applied approach that combines descriptive and analytical methods to create a complete survey. To facilitate this research, the analysis uses both cross-sectional and panel data methods. Cross-sectional data allows for the examination of variables at a single point in time across multiple subjects. In contrast, panel data includes multiple observations of the same entities over different time periods. It also analyzes panel data through the generalized method of moments.

The findings of this study emphasize the positive and significant relationships between information and communication technology, competitiveness index on GDP in developing and developed countries. In a way that is consistent with the literature on the subject. The findings also indicate that the effect of these two variables is greater in developed countries than in developing countries. Therefore, policymakers should consider the socio-economic factors and unique contexts of their countries to effectively use these dynamics for sustainable and inclusive growth.

According to economic literature, excessive inflation (more than the sustainable level of inflation) destroys purchasing power, distorts economic decision-making, and leads to uncertainty in economic factors, while deflation (less than the sustainable level of inflation) can lead to a decrease in spending (consumption) and investment, and potentially stop economic growth. The aim of this research is to use the results obtained from examining the factors affecting the inflation rate in order to increase the efficiency of monetary policy and control inflation.

In this study, time series econometric techniques (unit root and stationary concepts, variability models, and autoregression with distributed lags (ARDL) model) have been used. First, the stationary variables are examined by performing classical and nonlinear unit root tests with respect to structural failure. Next, the long-term relationship between the research variables is examined by the bounds test, and then long-term and short-term elasticities are extracted. Exchange rate fluctuations are also extracted by conditional heteroskedasticity models (GARCH) and then these variables will be entered as new explanatory variables in the autoregression with distributed lags (ARDL) model.

According to the results obtained, the two variables, the exchange rate volatility index and the degree of trade openness, are the most important determinants of the inflation rate in Iraq in the long run. Meanwhile, in the short run, the exchange rate volatility index does not affect the inflation rate. Exchange rate fluctuations can affect trade and investment between affect the international economy, because uncertainty in the exchange rate can stop foreign investment and affect export competitiveness, and also increase import inflation. The increase in the degree of trade openness causes global commodity inflation to quickly affect the Iraqi economy and increase the consumption costs of Iraqi citizens. Also, according to the results, the error correction coefficient is negative and equal to -0/36 Therefore, in each year, 0/36 of the imbalance in the inflation rate in one period is adjusted in the next period. It can be said that the adjustment towards equilibrium is carried out slowly, which depends on the macroeconomic environment of Iraq.

Geotourism is a type of tourism that is based on geological and geomorphological phenomena and landscapes and has expanded in recent decades with the aim of socio-economic development of geotourism destinations. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the geotourism capabilities and geomorphological destinations of Hir Township for economic development.

The nature of this study is descriptive-analytical-applied and to investigate the geotourism potential of the Hir region, the Renard models that examine geomorphosites based on three scientific, added and combined values; the Feuillet model that is based on four criteria of origin of formation, geographical distribution, tourism and accessibility; and finally the Kobalikwa model that emphasizes more on scientific, educational, economic, conservation and cultural criteria were used.

Based on the results obtained from the Reynard model, the Hair Suspension Bridge has a high geotourism potential and is ranked in the top category, with an average score of 0.7 in the scientific value index, 0.39 in the added value sub-index, and 0.74 in the composite value sub-index. Also, the Hair Suspension Bridge has various capabilities to introduce the region to domestic and foreign tourists based on the Feulet evaluation model in the management and tourism rates, with values ​​of 0.65 and 0.61, respectively. The results also indicate that based on the Kobalikwa model, the Hair Suspension Bridge has a high geotourism value among the studied geosites with a total score of 75.8 and has attracted many tourists to this region. Therefore, it is concluded that the Hair Glass Suspension Bridge in the city of Hair has diverse geotourism and geomorphological potentials and capabilities in the region and is ranked in the top category in terms of attracting tourists to the region and increasing economic power. Therefore, it is suggested that by using virtual and online tourism and introducing different regions of this city to tourists, preparations should be made to attract domestic and foreign tourists to this region.

Due to oil price fluctuations, oil exporting countries can be accompanied by income instability and economic growth. This study examines the effect of oil revenue fluctuations on economic growth fluctuations in Iraq and the moderating role of financial development. Accordingly, the main objective of the study is to answer the question of whether financial development can reduce economic growth fluctuations in the context of oil revenue fluctuations.

The present study was conducted using the generalized moments method and time series data to examine the effect of oil revenue fluctuations on economic growth fluctuations and the moderating role of financial development. This method allows for the analysis and examination of the dynamics between macroeconomic variables.

The findings show that fluctuations due to the abundance of oil revenues have a positive and significant effect on economic growth fluctuations. Also, financial development can play an effective moderating role in reducing the fluctuations in economic growth caused by fluctuations in oil revenues. Based on the findings, it can be concluded that further development of the financial system can reduce the negative effects of oil revenue fluctuations on economic growth and financial development can be considered as an effective tool in managing the effects of oil revenue fluctuations on economic growth in Iraq.

Government financial policies are one of the macroeconomic policies to improve or control economic variables, including the level of total consumption and employment. Based on this, the purpose of this research is to investigate the effects of government financial policies, including changes in government expenditures and taxes, on private sector consumption and employment in Iraq in different economic conditions.

This research was conducted using vector autoregression model to analyze time series data. This method provides the possibility of examining dynamic relationships between financial policies and macroeconomic variables such as consumption and employment.

The findings show that increasing government spending generally increases private sector consumption, but the effects of taxes are more complex and depend on economic conditions. Also, tax changes have different effects on employment and can be positive or negative depending on the initial employment level and economic conditions. Therefore, the findings show that the government's financial policies act as an effective tool in stimulating or reducing private consumption and employment. Therefore, based on the findings, it can be concluded that in order to improve the effects of financial policies on economic variables in Iraq, there is a need to regulate financial policies in order to reduce their negative effects on macroeconomic variables.

Energy and technology, as two main factors of production, play a prominent role in improving and sustaining the economic growth of countries. Today, a larger part of economic growth is attributed to the efficient use of energy and technology than in the past. Awareness of the impact of technology and energy on economic growth can lead policymakers to pursue more optimal strategies to promote sustainable and inclusive economic growth and development, and in the long term, economic prosperity will affect the well-being of society. Given the importance of the research and the necessity of the present study, the aim of this study is to examine the impact of energy and technology consumption on the economic growth of Iraq.

In the present study, the auto-explanatory model with extended lags (ARDL) was used to examine the impact of energy and technology consumption on the economic growth of Iraq during the period 2000 to 2022.

The results of this study show that the coefficient of the impact of energy consumption on economic growth in Iraq was 0.073 and the estimated T-statistic was 2.16. Given that the absolute value of the t-statistic was greater than the critical value at the 95% confidence level (1.96), it can be stated that energy consumption had a positive and significant effect on economic growth. Another result showed that the coefficient of influence of the technology index on economic growth in Iraq was 0.129 and the estimated T-statistic was 3.34. Given that the absolute value of the t-statistic was greater than the critical value at the 95% confidence level (1.96), it can be stated that the technology index had a positive and significant effect on economic growth. Also, the error correction coefficient was -0.576, which was statistically significant, indicating that if a shock were to occur to the economic growth rate in Iraq, 0.576 percent of the imbalance in the economic growth rate would be adjusted during each period and would approach its long-term trend.

One of the most important macroeconomic goals of countries is to create the necessary conditions to promote continuous and stable economic growth, and the increase in economic complexity can be considered as one of the most important discussions in order to achieve this goal. Complexity in the economy implies a country's ability to produce a diverse basket of products that are not ubiquitous in global trade. Therefore, the increase in economic complexity causes an increase in the production of productive goods and the creation of new job opportunities, and ultimately leads to economic growth and development. Economic fragility is one of the main variables affecting economic complexity; Therefore, reducing economic fragility can provide suitable platforms for acquiring new knowledge and technology and producing goods with superior technology and finally exporting them. To reduce economic fragility, its components, i.e. reduction of recession and poverty, prevention of brain drain and labor force, and balanced economic development should be examined. Therefore, the current study examines the effect of economic fragility on the economic complexity of selected OPEC countries during the 2006-2021, using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The results show that the components of economic fragility (recession and poverty, prevention of brain drain and labor force, and balanced economic development) have a negative and significant impact on the economic complexity of the studied countries. Also, the results show that the control variables of State Legitimacy and Human Rights have a positive effect on economic complexity, and the variable effect of the Factionalized Elites is negative on the economic complexity of selected OPEC countries

Ardabil province has a very convenient geographical location, as a border province, for trade with neighboring countries. By improving the level of economic interactions with neighboring countries, we can benefit from the significant capacities that exist in this area. By providing special facilities for export and import neighboring countries, developing non-oil exports, creating tourism facilities, developing tourism services and appropriate advertising, attracting investment in transformation and complementary industries, it is possible to develop economic interactions with neighboring countries and expand commercial relations. The export amount of Ardabil in 1400 was 516 million dollars, the volume of trade between Ardabil province and Azerbaijan was more than 1.3 billion , the non-oil exports of Ardabil to neighboring countries were more than 64 million , the production of transformation and complementary industries in Ardabil was More than 2.4 billion have been collected and more than 105 thousand tourists from neighboring countries have traveled to Ardabil province, as well as the export of various goods and products from the customs of Ardabil province in the first seven months of 1402 to Azerbaijan 39 million, to Armenia 172 thousand And Turkey has 12,000, which has had a leaping and growing trend, which shows the importance of developing trade with neighboring countries. To develop economic interactions between the two countries, solutions such as export and import development, infrastructure, transportation, tourism promotion, cross-border cooperation, etc. can be used. Considering the positive signs that exist in the field of economic interactions with neighboring countries in Ardabil province, it can be concluded that the development and deepening of economic interactions of Ardabil province with neighboring countries, including Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey and the Republic Nakhchivan, can have a significant yield.this development can be considered as one of the main ways for economic development and increasing economic growth in Ardabil .

Humanity today with all the scientific advances, has not been very successful in controlling natural hazards. The concept of resilience brings the evolution of risk management in the current decade. Resilience is proposed as a way to strengthen societies by using their capacities. The main goal of this research is to measure and evaluate the economic resilience of the Neighborhoods of the three region of Ardabil city against the risk of earthquake. The research is descriptive-analytical in terms of method and practical in terms of purpose. The method of collecting data and information in the form of a library and a questionnaire that includes three indicators of economic resilience, the severity (amount) of damages, the capacity or ability to compensate for damages and the ability to return to suitable conditions. MEREC method was used to determine the weight of the indicators and CoCoSo method was used to measure and evaluate the resilience of the neighborhoods. The calculation of three strategies (Ka), (Kb) and (Kc) shows; in all three mentioned strategies, neighborhood six has the highest score and neighborhood eight has the lowest score. The amount (K) and the ranking of the ten neighborhoods shows, neighborhood six with a score of 2.87, neighborhood two with a score of 2.80, neighborhood seven with a score of 2.65, neighborhood ten with a score of 2.60, neighborhood Four with a score of 2.46, neighborhood one with a score of 2.23, neighborhood nine with a score of 2/11, neighborhood three with a score of 1.92, neighborhood five with a score of 1.76 and finally neighborhood eight With a score of 1.15, they are ranked first to tenth respectively. Overall, the results show that there is a difference between ten neighborhoods in terms of economic resilience.

Social resilience is a process that which links a network of adaptive capacities to adaptation after a disturbance or incompatibility and specifically, it is an abstract phenomenon that does not exist physically. The main goal of the research is to prioritize Prioritization Neighborhoods of the three region of Ardabil based on social resilience against earthquak e which 385 were selected as a statistical sample. The required data and information have been collected using library sources as well as field investigations (questionnaire). The reliability rate is 0.816 which indicates its good reliability. The MEREC method has been used to weight the indicators and the CODAS method has been used to rank neighborhoods based on social resilience. The ranking status of the districts of the third region shows; neighborhood two in the first rank, neighborhood seven in the second rank, neighborhood six in the third rank, neighborhood three in the fourth rank, neighborhood ten in the fifth rank, neighborhood nine in the sixth rank, neighborhood four in the seventh rank, neighborhood one in the eighth rank, neighborhood Eight is in the ninth rank, and finally the Panj neighborhood is in the last rank.

The increase in carbon emissions and global warming, which is a vital issue in the world today, and the reason for the increase in this huge part of CO2 emissions is due to the consumption of fossil fuels, and this consumption is due to the fossil fuel trade. In recent decades, developing countries and developed countries have sought optimal planning and the use of appropriate methods to not only achieve their economic goals, but also the damage done to the environment through the consumption of fossil fuels. Minimize. In this study, focusing on the effective channels of fossil fuel trade (transportation and GDP), it examines these effects on CO2 emissions in selected developing countries and developed countries for the years 2014-2000. The econometric methods used in this paper are multivariate linear regression patterns estimated by the ordinary least squares method. The results showed that the extent of these effects of fossil fuel trade in the fossil fuel consumption channel in the transportation sector and production channel (industry), on carbon emissions have a significant relationship in developed countries and developing countries. CO2 emissions are a global issue, causing global warming and ultimately damaging the environment (climate change) and causing unpredictable costs for both developing and developed countries. The following are policy conclusions and recommendations to prevent this publication

The goal of the current research was the short-term and long-term effects of energy consumption in the industrial sector on inequality. The present research method is descriptive and non-experimental. The statistical population was Iran's information and statistics, based on the requirements of the research variables and based on the available statistics, the data of the years 1361 to 1395 was determined as the statistical sample of the research. The amount of energy consumption (oil, gas, solid fuels and electricity) in the country's industries was used as an independent variable, and information related to the Gini coefficient, the share of the richest 10% to the poorest 10%, and the average index of the total annual income of an urban/rural household were used as the dependent variables of the research.. ARDL regression model was used in Eviews10 software to analyze research hypotheses. The obtained results showed that in the long term, the consumption of energy in the industrial sector has a significant negative effect, and the consumption of electricity in the industrial sector has a positive and significant effect on the Gini coefficient. In the long term, the consumption of solid fuels and electricity in the industrial sector has a negative and significant effect on the share index of the richest 10% to the poorest 10%. Also, in the long term, the effect of consumption of petroleum products and electricity has had a significant positive effect on the average income of urban and rural areas. Energy consumption in the industrial sector of a country can help to reduce poverty in the country by increasing the income of the working class and the lower deciles of the society and make the distribution of income fair. In this context, cheap energies have had a better effect, but expensive energies have provided contradictory results.

Today, information and communication technology has extensive effects on economic and social variables at the micro and macro level, among which what is most important is its impact on economic growth and the issue of employment and unemployment. The purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of selected indicators of information and communication technology (FAVA) on the economic growth and unemployment of MENA countries. For this purpose, this research is specified and estimated based on the econometric model in the framework of panel data using fixed effects (FE) and the FGLS model for the years 2000 to 2019. The findings show that the variables of Internet penetration rate and mobile phone SIM card subscription rate have a significant positive effect on the economic growth and increase in the real per capita income of MENA countries, and on the other hand, they have a negative and significant effect on the unemployment rate of these countries; The fixed internet (and fixed telephone) subscription rate variable does not have a significant effect on the economic growth and unemployment rate of these countries. Also, according to the results, economic growth has a negative and significant effect on the unemployment rate, and Okan's law is true in these countries. Although the coefficient of calculation in this research is less than the value of Okan's calculation and this indicates the importance that the growth of GDP in MENA countries is less job-creating, which can be due to the fact that the economic growth of these countries is due to oil and natural resources. knew Therefore, it is necessary to increase the penetration rate of the Internet among the citizens of the MENA region, international institutions (World Bank, United Nations, etc.) should support the weak countries of the MENA region by granting free and low-interest loans in order to expand ICT. Because it reduces the exchange cost and has many positive external effects.

Today, the tourism industry is one of the pillars affecting the urban and regional economy and is a powerful tool that includes economic, social and environmental effects. Urban tourism, as one of the sub-sectors of tourism, has recently received the attention of planners and administrators. Based on this, the aim of the current research is to investigate the impact of urban tourism indicators on the urban and regional economy, which has been carried out on a case-by-case basis in Ardabil city. The current research is applied in terms of its nature and descriptive, analytical and survey method. The statistical population of the research includes 15 experts and specialists. A questionnaire was used to collect data. The validity of the research was obtained using face validity and the reliability of the questionnaire was obtained using Cronbach's alpha 0.828. In order to analyze the data and prioritize the indicators in terms of effectiveness, the EDAS multi-criteria decision making model was used in the form of Excel software. The results of the application of the mentioned model showed that among the selected indicators, the physical-spatial index with the highest score (1) is in the first place and the human resource management structure index with the lowest score (0.728) in the first ranks, respectively. They are placed last.

Global climate change, which is aggravated by the emission of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide, poses a huge threat to human life, environment, development, and sustainability. As a result, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving environmental conditions are currently global priorities to promote sustainable growth and prevent the adverse consequences of global warming and climate change, and Iran is no exception. Therefore, it is considered important to understand the determining factors and provide solutions to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. According to the stated contents, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of economic growth and tourism, in order to achieve environmental sustainability by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.Design/methodology/approach: In this research, using ARDL's non-linear econometric approach, the effects of tourism and economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions in Iran during the period of 2008-2020 have been evaluated.

According to estimates, an increase of one unit of tourism and economic growth has caused an increase of 0.042 and 0.449 units of carbon dioxide emissions in the short term, respectively, and in the long term it has caused an increase of 0.177 and 0.902 units. While the decrease of one unit of tourism and economic growth in the short term has caused a decrease of 0.016 and 0.714 units of carbon dioxide emissions, respectively, and in the long term it has caused a decrease of 0.067 and 0.025.

Based on the findings of the research, it is suggested to adopt policies such as using alternative fuels and new technologies, especially in transportation services. Originality/value: The current research is innovative in terms of variables used, methodology, and time period under investigation.

Today, economic growth and development in all countries, although positive and constructive goals appear, but has negative effects on other sectors and areas, including the environment. In recent years, a topic that has attracted much attention is the discussion of the negative side effects of globalization and trade liberalization and its effects on environmental degradation. It has made the environment more obvious. On the other hand, energy demand and economic development are increasing due to the need to meet basic human needs and productivity. However, efforts to meet global energy demand have led to the use of unsustainable environmental energy resources that have had an impact on environmental degradation. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of foreign direct investment in non-renewable energy on environmental degradation by examining the pollution shelter hypothesis in OECD member countries during the years 1990-2019. For this purpose, PMG ARDL test was used to obtain long-term and short-term relationships between research variables and Granger causality test was used to investigate the causal relationship between variables using composite data. Increased foreign direct investment in non-renewable energy and economic growth, along with education and population size, support the pollution shelter hypothesis, but foreign direct investment in renewable energy in OECD countries has rejected the halo hypothesis.

Given the high exchange rate fluctuations in Iran, its prediction is one of the major issues and challenges for different groups in the country. This study investigates the performance of six different static and dynamic neural networks for forecasting exchange rates using fundamental, technical and hybrid approaches and using seasonal data over the period (1) 2004- (4) 1396 for variables influencing exchange rate including inflation, Liquidity and GDP for the two countries, Iran and the United States. The findings show that the number of neurons did not have a regular effect on the performance of the networks and that the best results occurred at breaks of three and four. The results also show that the best performance of the static neural network is achieved by a technical approach with a structure of sixteen neurons and four interruptions which provides a relatively accurate exchange rate prediction despite the low number of input data.