abolfazl ghiasvand

One of the key elements to achieve economic growth and development of the country is financial stability. According to the empirical evidence in recent years and the intertwining of the financial system and the economic development of countries, high economic growth cannot be considered, but it was not successful in the financial markets. Therefore, considering the importance of the combined index of financial and economic stability in the economic growth and development of the country and especially the road transport sector, in this study the role of the combined index of financial and economic stability in the road transport sector of the country during the period of 1370-1401 has been examined. In the first step, the combined index of financial and economic stability was calculated with the help of the cumulative distribution function method, and then to investigate the effects of the combined indicators of financial and economic stability on the road transport sector, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model was used to achieve the research findings. The results show that both in the short term and in the long term, the combined index of financial and economic stability has a positive effect on the added value of the road transport sector. The short-term and long-term elasticity of added value of the road transport sector is 0.074 and 0.153 respectively, which shows that its long-term elasticity is more than the short-term elasticity. Also, the results of the stability and diagnosis tests show that the coefficients of the variables are stable in the long term..

​Financial stability is the cornerstone of modern economies and shows the proper functioning of the financial system and is a prerequisite for economic growth and strengthening the economy against shocks. In the path of economic growth and development, financial stability and its effects play an important role in the economy. On the other hand, road transportation is one of the important sectors of the country's economy and has a great impact on the country's economic growth. So, considering the importance and role of financial and economic stability in increasing the country's economic growth, as well as the importance of road transportation in the country's economy, in this study, the analysis of short-term and long-term causality relationships between the financial and economic stability index and the economic growth of the investigated road transport sector is included. For this purpose, first, the combined financial and economic stability indices were calculated, and then the short-term and long-term causal relationships between the financial and economic stability index and the economic growth of the road transport sector were analyzed. The results indicate a long-term and short-term relationship between the growth of the combined indicators of financial and economic stability and the value-added growth of the road transport sector, the growth of the amount of goods carried and the growth of the amount of passengers carried in the road transport sector. The effect of combined indicators of financial and economic stability on the added value of the road transport sector, the growth of goods transportation and the growth of passenger transportation has been positive. There is a one-way causal relationship from the combined indicators of financial and economic stability to the added value of the road transport sector, the increase in the amount of goods transported and the growth in the amount of passenger transportation.

One of the most important goals of every country is to establish financial and economic stability. If there is financial and economic stability, economic growth and investment and other goals will be achieved at the macro level and provide the basis for development. Considering the importance of this issue and since the combined index of financial and economic stability can play an important role in the economic growth and development of the country, especially in the rail transport sector, in this study the role of the combined index of financial and economic stability in the rail transport sector of the country has been examined. For this purpose, in this study, the combined indicators of financial and economic stability are first calculated, and then the effects of the combined indicators of financial and economic stability on the rail transport sector are investigated by using the self-regression econometric model with a wide interval to estimate the model and interpret the results. The results show that both in the short term and in the long term, the combined index of financial and economic stability has a positive effect on the added value of the rail transport sector. Also, according to the error correction coefficient, it can be stated that the speed of adjustment towards the equilibrium and long-term value is suitable, so that in each period about 0.46 of the imbalance error is adjusted and the short-term value tends towards its equilibrium and long-term value exponentially. Finally, the results show that the coefficients of the variables are stable during the investigated period.

Today, one of the challenges facing health systems is the ever-increasing increase in its costs. This study investigates the relationship between health costs and income inequality. Income inequality has been investigated using four Gini coefficients and, in a quantile, approach using annual panel data from 2000 to 2022 in selected middle-income member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, the empirical results show that the effect of health costs on inequality The income in the countries that are part of the top 10 percent of the income level in this group is much higher than the countries that are in the lowest income level. The effect of life expectancy, death rate and population on income inequality is also opposite; That is, the countries that are in the highest category in terms of income level, the effect of these variables on income inequality is much greater than the countries that are in the lower income categories. Also, due to the effect of population structure on income inequality, it is necessary to seriously consider it in the design and formulation of policies in the field of health, hygiene and population structure. Health, treatment and quality of life improvement policies to increase life expectancy and decrease mortality rate, policies to increase investment (reduction of consumption, promotion of security, economic development of exports, etc.) should be pursued to reduce income inequality.

In this article, using the autoregressive model with non-linear distribution breaks, we investigate the dynamics of the price index of the transportation sector during the years 2010-2019. In order to investigate the shocks of the variables affecting the price index of the transportation sector, at first, using Hodrick-Prescott filter, predicted shocks and unexpected positive and negative shocks have been extracted. The results of the estimation of the model show that both in the short term and in the long term, the positive shocks of the added value of the transportation sector, interest rate, crude oil price and exchange rate have a positive effect and the negative shocks of these variables have a negative effect on the price index of the transportation sector. Also, the Wald test was used to check the asymmetry of the positive and negative shocks of the investigated variables. The results show that the unexpected positive and negative shocks of the investigated variables have asymmetric effects on the price index of the transportation sector. In the following, CUSUM and CUSUM SQ tests were used for the residual sentences of the short-term model to investigate the stability of the estimated parameters in the long-term model. The results of this test show that the coefficients of the variables are stable during the investigated period. In other words, there is no structural break in the model, and the average of residual sentences is zero, and the first classical assumption is maintained.

Each policy presents some assumptions about human behavior and the underlying principle for today's policy making approaches is the assumption that human behavior emerges from rational choice. Therefore, the approaches which rely on this attitude focus on changing costs and benefits in individuals' actions However, recent decades have seen serious doubts concerning rational choice as a result of the research conducted into decision making processes. The new policies rely on a more realistic understanding of people's thoughts and behavior. The perception and utilization of recent findings about human decision making influence the design of effective public policies in the countries around the world. They provide a framework based on three principles of thinking automatically, thinking socially and thinking with mental models. This framework is derived from societies and the history which people share. The implementation of policies and interventions made upon these principles lead to the activation of appropriate mental patterns and, consequently, better outcomes.

The Islamic Republic of Iran Vision aimed to direct development plans and yearly budgets. As one of the most important part, it includes 13 economic goals for directing economic route of the country for a twenty years period. After 15 years, evaluating how the country achieved to these goals is very important and unfortunately neglected. In this article, considering the different nature of goals, we designed a composite index and commuted the results using relative gap scoring method and two distinct model of weighting (first using same weights and second using principle component analysis) in 2005-2019. The results indicate that relative gap to vision economic goals have raised from 32.2% (or 35.7 based on equal weights) in 2005 to more than 51% in 2019. Uncertainty and sensitive analysis in concern of weighting system using Monte Carlo simulation shows that in 95% confidence interval, apart from weighting methods, the has raised significantly. “First place in the region in the realms of knowledge” is the only goal which has achieved completely and except “achievement of full employment”, “being developed” and “First place in the region in the realms of technology” relative gap from goals has risen during time.

Price fluctuation is one of the most important features of the energy market that leads to price risk and economic instability. In the financial market, one of the best uses of derivative securities is in hedging. The most common way of hedging in the investment is through appropriate derivative instruments. They include options, swaps, futures and forward contracts. Even though there are many criteria used in the derivation of the optimal hedge ratio, the minimum-variance (MV) hedge ratio considered by Johnson (1960) has been one of the most popular choices. The basic concept of the minimum variance hedging risk lies in the combination of investments in the spot and future markets in order to reduce value fluctuations. Thus, the optimal number of futures contracts that a person must hold to hedge against the risk of price fluctuation in the underlying assets can be obtained by calculating the optimal ratio of hedging risk. The literature shows that researchers mainly use future contracts to minimize the risk of price fluctuation in the spot market. Accordingly, in these studies, various econometric methods have been used to calculate the optimal hedging risk ratio. Also, in order to introduce the best hedging risk model, the performances of different models have been compared. The evaluation of hedging performance is based on the percentage reduction in spot variance compared to portfolio variance. Then, the purpose of this study is to choose an optimal model with the highest degree of hedging risk for the selected commodity.

Several techniques have been proposed in the literature to estimate the hedge ratio with index futures contracts.  Many practitioners and academicians have sought to solve the problem of how to calculate the optimal hedge ratio accurately. To achieve the goal, we compare the estimates of the hedge ratio from the ordinary least squares methods (OLS), autoregressive model (VAR/VECM), autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH/ GARCH) and copula. Also, to determine the changes in the optimal hedging risk ratio, we use the weekly time series of spot and future contract prices for crude oil and natural gas during the five-year period of 2013-2018. In the next step, the rolling window regression technique will be used to compare the performances of the studied models and select an efficient hedging risk model. The results of the weights for future by each of the four above-mentioned models will be used for hedging the spot prices of the two examined commodities. The obtained hedge ratios are applied on the real data in the following 20 weeks. Thus, the ability to reduce risk in every method is measured and compared during the specified period.

All the models are able to offer a significate reduction in the portfolio. The conventional approach to estimating the MV hedge ratio involves the regression of the changes in spot prices on the changes in future prices using the OLS technique. As we found, the minimum variance hedge ratio by the OLS method was 62% for crude oil and 37% for natural gas. However, for the OLS technique to be valid and efficient, the assumptions associated with the OLS regression must be satisfied. Thus, we use an autoregressive model (VAR/VECM). The optimal hedging risk ratio obtained from the VECM model is 98% for crude oil and 86% for natural gas. However, the OLS and VAR methods only capture the influence of two risk factors on stock returns in the mean on average but are not sufficient to capture the dependence structure in higher moments or tail dependence. The volatility clustering phenomenon and the existence of ARCH effects demonstrate that hedge funds volatility varies over time. Then, we use the conditional autoregressive model (GARCH). Furthermore, we utilize the copula method to capture the general dependence structure between the futures and spot prices. The copula method has been used for multivariate statistical modelling owing to its edibility and convenience to describe its ability to capture the nonlinear relationship of random variables. The copula approach allows us to model the marginal distributions of individual random variables and their dependence structure separately. Our finding show copula serves normally to hedge crude oil and natural gas at the rate of 98% and 93% respectively. These rates are the models for crude oil and natural gas copula at 98% and 94% respectively. In this paper, the efficiency of different models of the rolling window regression technique are compared. This section is the core of the research. The results of the effectiveness of the optimal hedging rates of the crude oil and natural gas market show that copula functions in both markets have been in better conditions than the other models. Thus, the result of the research indicates the high efficiency of the copula functions approach to calculate hedging risk rates.

The results show that modeling the relationship between the current and future prices in the form of copula functions is more efficient.

Futures are used as the most important risk hedge tools to reduce the risk of the crude oil market. The optimal hedging risk strategy is determined by calculating the optimal hedging risk ratio. It is important to determine the relationship between the time series of spot prices and futures in calculating the optimal hedging risk ratio. Therefore, in this paper, the OLS, ECM, DCC GARCH and GARCH models based on Copula are used to calculate and evaluate the optimal hedge ratio of spot market hedging risk to the futures market over the period 2018-2013. The results show that the DCC-GARCH model has the highest optimal hedging risk ratio at 0.805. Considering the percentage of variance reduction, it can be concluded that the dynamic strategies of DCC and copula to models Static hedging risk is more efficient. Also, the time-varying, t-student, gamble, and normal capsules show better performance than the DCC model. Also, among the functions mentioned above, the copula t student function has the best performance.

The paper examines the issue of hedging in energy markets. The objective of this study is to select an optimal model that will provide the highest price risk reduction for the selected commodities. We apply the ordinary least squares methods, autoregressive model, autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity and copula to calculate the appropriate dynamic minimum-variance hedge ratio. The objects of hedging are the spot and futures prices. We use weekly data for the period 2013 to 2018 to estimate our values. Empirical results show that the Copula model is the most effective method for hedging against price risks‏.

Most policy-relevant work on climate change in the social sciences either analyzes costs and benefits of particular policy options against important but often narrow sets of objectives or attempts to explain past successes or failures. We argue that an “applied forward reasoning” approach is better suited for social scientists seeking to address climate change, which we characterize as a “super wicked” problem comprising four key features: time is running out; those who cause the problem also seek to provide a solution; the central authority needed to address it is weak or non-existent; and, partly as a result, policy responses discount the future irrationally. These four features combine to create a policy-making “tragedy” where traditional analytical techniques are ill equipped to identify solutions, even when it is well recognized that actions must take place soon to avoid catastrophic future impacts. To overcome this tragedy, greater attention must be given to the generation of path-dependent policy interventions that can “constrain our future collective selves.

Resilience is defined as more risk-bearing capacity, rapid return after a certain amount of risk and damage reduction. This study examines resilience of Iranian economy during the years 1996-2013. Resilience Index applies Briguglio and Borman studies to define and measure different components including macroeconomic stability, micro-markets performance, good governance, social development, accuracy of financial policies, monetary policy, effectiveness of administration performance, comprehensive supervision, accuracy of banking system, export diversity, autonomy (freedom) of exports, foreign strength, private debt, net international reserves, and international investment amount. Results indicate that resilience of Iranian economy during the studied period until 2004 had an upward trend, but from 2004 to 2011 had a downward trend. The low resiliency of economy indicates that in the event of an external shock to economy, on the one hand poses a high damage to economy, and on the other hand decelerates economic recovery and its return to normal condition.

The Economic Resistance can be designated as empowering the national economy against the menace of stochastic changes, various risks, internal and external threats in toto. These maladies may occur in the path of progress and prosperity of any country. The economic resistance could pave the way for achieving the prospectus targets of the economy and optimal utilization of opportunities thereto. Hence, conceptually it can bear certain analogy with prevailing economic literature of Economic Resilience. In this context a social system is resilient, where it can de facto absorb the temporary or permanent risks and adjust itself with rapidly changing conjectures of the economy without exhausting its efficiency Ipso facto. In this paper, an attempt is made to expound prima facie the very term and measurement indices of Economic Resilience in the economy. These indices are per se classifies into two groups of national and regional levels. It is obvious that, more awareness regarding the concerned issues and efforts of some other countries for implementation of economic resistance in their respective socio-politico-economic setup can be helpful for more robust and meticulous evaluation of its principles and policies quid pro qua.

The main reason for focusing on value added tax (VAT) is expanding tax base and increasing tax revenues. Regarding the implementation of VAT Act initiated in October 2008, this paper attempts to estimate tax revenue resulting from this Act, which is based on input! output table and production method. Based on the results of this research, VAT base according to the Act is about 44 percent of GDP; with regard to the rate of 1/5 percent, potential VAT revenue will be 0/67 percent of GDP. Results of this study show that the full implementation of VAT act with rate of 1/5 percent will not have significant effect on reducing the operating budget deficit. The VAT rate should be increased in order to makeup such a deficit.

This paper aims to investigate whether an asymmetrical relationship between oil price oscillations and government and private consumption has existed in the past in case of Iranian economy. The data used for this purpose covers the time span of 0231-0231corresponding to 0790-1110. Towards this end three analytical techniques have been use to investigate this hypothesis. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) was used to estimates the parameters coefficients. The result has indicated that coefficients of parameters pertaining to government consumption model have higher value than that of private consumption model, indicating that government consumption is far strongly affected by changes in oil prices.It has been further identified that the establishment of Oil Stabilization Fund in year 1111, did not have any significant bearing on the government and private consumption in the wake of changes in oil prices.