hamid shahrestani

Objective (s):

Consumption expenses and unemployment can be considered as macroeconomic indicators that affect in health. Therefore, considering the inflationary conditions and its fluctuation which leads to uncertainty in the economy, the purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of inflation fluctuation on consumption and unemployment as key indicators in public’s health.

In this study, the fluctuation and uncertainty of inflation was estimated using Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE). For surveying the shocks of inflation fluctuation on consumption and unemployment, the impulse respond (IR) that is so useful in structural Vector Auto Regressive (SVAR) models were used. The source of quarterly data was Statistical Center of Iran (S.C.I) from 2001 to 2020.

The results indicated the fluctuation of inflation was effective and meaningful on unemployment by 0.04 and consumption by (-0073).

Based on these two indicators, it can be concluded that inflation fluctuation reduces health in the community.

Policy makers impose policies to improve economy circumstance in order to achieve economic goals. However, the consequence of these policies along with the intended goals will also influence expectations, fluctuations, etc., and cause changes in levels of uncertainty. The important role of the stock market in the economy, makes it important to examine its uncertainty and its interaction with monetary policy.In this study, the uncertainty of stock market uncertainty is estimated using Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE). For surveying the mutual shocks of monetary policy and uncertainty on each other and output, the impulse respond (IR) that is so useful in structural Vector Auto Regressive (SVAR) models are used. The source of quarterly data is Statistical Center of Iran (S.C.I) from 2001 to 2016. The results of (IR) indicate the monetary policy shocks are effective and lasting in stock market uncertainty and about output have negative effects. While, this stock market uncertainty exacerbated by monetary policy, has a negative effect on output. This means that monetary policy authority; should pay more attention to monetary policy shocks and Keep the economy away from monetary shocks.

Monetary and financial affiliation, always closely linked to oil sector in Iran (as an oil exporter country) has made Monetary Policy a remarkable challenge to the economic policy- makers. In fact, according to expected statistics, a considerable amount of budget is provided by currency sources from oil export and withdrawal from foreign exchange reserve account by which Central Bank inevitably buys currency resulting to increase monetary base. Lack of possibility of mathematical anticipation and uncertainty of oil revenues to finance is one of the challenges monetary authorities encounter in Iran. Accordingly, mathematical programing for economic stability requires identifying the effect of Monetary Policy based on oil revenue. Examination of the effect of Monetary Policy in economics started with the theory of '' the amount of money''. Economic experts are of different viewpoints on the impact of Monetary Policy on Marco variables. According to theoretical and experimental literature, Monetary Policy makes an outstanding difference on Marco variables. On the other hand such policies are extinguished by oil revenue leading to more obscurity.

Theoretical framework:

According to the existing literature, the way of applying Monetary Policy is different in oil exporter and importer countries. when oil price rises, Central bank, In order to control inflation, increases the interest rate, and Monetary Policy acts as a contraction in oil importer countries. However, in oil exporter countries, when oil price rises, currency revenues, mainly in the hands of the government, increases, and the government, by converting part of oil dollars to domestic currency, intentionally or unintentionally, increases the amount of money to provide its expenses. So, in exporter countries like Iran, oil revenues directly affect economic Macro variables. They, also, indirectly affect through Monetary Policy.

The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of monetary policy on economic Marco variables due to oil revenues. This study has, also, used interest rate variable, bank facilities, and legal reserve rate on monetary policy. Such variables have been used, indoors or outdoors, in different economic studies. Basically, in this study, the economic Marco variables are also economic growth and inflation rate respectively due to the limited access to information and also other existing limitations. To measure the economic growth rate, GDP growth rate at a fixed price has been used. The inflation rate resulted from consumer price index growth rate (CPI). In this study, using STATA software, the variables have been used from the years 1978 to 2017.

The results of this study have shown that the rise in bank interest rate has run down the economic growth rate at least up to two years after applying the shock. It drifted towards zero afterwards. With the rise in bank interest rate growth, the cost of financing has been decimated resulting to investment reduction. On the other hand, with the rise in bank interest rate, the inflation rate has been reduced. It is obvious shock standard deviation in bank facilities interest rate has, up to three periods after applying the shock, left positive impact on inflation rate, and the impact has been reduced to zero. Economic growth reveals like bank facilities rate, such a variable has a negative impact on Iran's economic growth. The rise in legal reserve rate has been one period after applying the shock up to zero in the second period. On the other hand, the impact of legal reserve rate has been positive on inflation rate. It has been shown that shock standard deviation reduces inflation rate in legal reserve rate. The rise in oil revenues leads the rise in economic growth rate, thus, reduced to zero up to two periods after applying the shock. With increasing oil revenues, by the government's expenses increase as well. Thus, it leads to the rise in demand, and also, economic growth indoors.

Conclusions & Suggestions:

Based on the results, implementation of monetary policy in Iran has negative effect on economic growth, which is also consistent with the Iran Economy, so policymakers must use another policy for stimulating the economic growth. Put on the agenda.

After the 2008 financial crisis, it became clear that monetary policy has been one of the main reasons for the vulnerability and instability of financial markets. This article examines the dynamics of the effect of monetary policy on the fragility of the money market during 1991:Q1-2017-Q4 in Iran. First, an index for the fragility of the Iranian money market is extracted and then the effect of monetary policy on this index is investigated. To show the performance of the monetary policy, three variables of the weighted real interest rates, monetary base growth rate, and excess reserves rate have been used as monetary policy instruments. The results show that an increase in the real interest rate reduces the volatility of the money market, but the other two instruments do not affect the volatility of the money market. The results of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition also show that the share of monetary instruments in explaining the changes in money market fragility in the short and medium-term is small and less than ten percent, although the effect of the real interest rate is higher. As a result, it can be concluded that financial and quasi-financial dominance of the government, and the freezing of a significant amount of commercial bank assets, monetary policy has no significant effect on the fragility of the money market.

After the recent financial crisis, especially the financial crisis 2008, This raises the important question of what is the role of monetary policy in occurrence and  prevention of the financial  instability? so, this paper investigate the dynamics impact of monetary policy on the stock market returns and instability using Structural Vector Autoregression (SVARs) model During the period  1992:q2 to 2017:q1. In this study, the effect of monetary policies via the various monetary tools used by the Central Bank on the stock market is studied. to illustrate the performance of monetary policies, the four variables of weighted interest rate, monetary base growth rate, bank reserve ratio, and growth of commercial banks' debt to the central bank have been used as monetary policy tools.  The results of the impulse response function(IRF) show that monetary policy tools do not affect the stock market returns and instability. The results of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) also show that the share of monetary tools in explaining the changes in stock market returns and instability is insignificant and less than ten percent each. Although, the monetary base share is higher than the others, so the central bank's policy tools do not has a particular impact on the behavior and instability of the stock market.

Economic reforms require a comprehensive and detailed strategy to specify when and how policy reforms should be applied. Since economic reforms are comprised of different measures such as price liberalization, privatization, trade and foreign currency reform, restructuring of enterprises and etc., the sequence of these policies should be specified, and must be determined how fast each of these policies should be followed. Unfortunately, lack of statistical evidence has hindered a strong evidence-based analysis. In this research, the indicators of economic reforms, provided by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in 8 sectors and 29 transition economies over 24 years, have been analyzed through a panel data model with EGLS method. As for the sequence of policies, it is determined that the price liberalization and the small enterprises’ privatization (rather than large ones) are the most important parts of the economic reforms to achieve economic growth. However, as for the speed of adjustments, the results indicate that speeding up price liberalization and privatization lead to slow economic growth, whereas accelerating the reforms in trade and foreign exchange policies, and also stepping up the restructuring of firms, promote economic growth.

In recent years, the effect of monetary policy on Macroeconomic Variables, and examining the role of central bank independence have been a challenging debate to which it has not produced any similar results in different studies. Accordingly, this study aims at examining the effect of the shock caused by monetary policy on macroeconomic variable considering the index of central bank independence. In this study, according to existing theoretical principles, we estimate Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) which contain Monetary Policy Variables (legal reserve rate & interest rate), index of central bank independence, index of interest rate, inflation rate and oil price and use Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition for interpreting the results. In this order, we use Iran’s macroeconomic database from 1978 to 2016. This study came to a conclusion that the increase of legal reserve rate has, on the one side, meaningfully reduced economic growth rate, and, on the other side, central bank independence contributes to Variance Decomposition of inflation and economic growth rates. Additionally, central bank independence affects economic growth rate positively, and inflation rate negatively.

This study evaluates the causality relationship between human capital and foreign direct investment inflow in twenty-six OIC (the Organization of Islamic Cooperation) countries over the period 1970–2014. We employed the panel Granger non-causality testing approach of Kònya (2006) that is based on seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) systems, and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values. The approach allows one to test for Granger non-causality on each member of panel, separately by taking into account the cross-sectional dependency and slope heterogeneity among countries investigated simultaneously. We found that the hypothesis of Granger non-causality from human capital to foreign direct investment (FDI) was rejected for more than half of the sample countries, mainly among African states. In addition, the effect magnitude of human capital on FDI varies among the states significantly.

Banking sector as one of the most important sectors in Iran’s economy plays a major role in general equilibrium and transmission of various shocks in the society. In this paper, to address the role of the banking system in the transmission of shocks, we design a DSGE Model with introducing interbank market and considering endogeneity of the default probability in banking sector and firms. Analyzing the effects of productivity and stock market shocks on real variables indicates that the adopted model is well-matched with theoretical expectations and Iran’s economic facts. The results of the model support the importance of the banking sector in the transmission of shocks and also confirm that central bank plays a critical role to mitigate the effects of the shock through injecting liquidity into the interbank market.

The aim of this paper is surveying the effects of money growth uncertainty on currency substitution. For this, bivariate GARCH model and VAR-BEKK method was used on the base of data for 1979 to 2014. The results show that money growth uncertainty affects currency substitution positively. Also, currency substitution, affected by its own past shock and the currency growth. On the other hand, there have been spillover of fluctuations from the currency growth to currency substitution and vice versa. Due to the existence of currency growth effective relationship on the currency substitution in Iran, it is necessary for controlling currency growth and preventing from currency irregular growth by policy makers.

Markowitz's model which determines the weight of each stock in the portfolio is based on the optimal choice of stocks in order to maximize the expected returns. However, this theory through paying special attention to the concept of total risk reaches to an efficient frontier which undoubtedly the portion of unsystematic risk that the market doesn’t reward will not stand in the minimum level. Besides, Sharpe’s theory presents a model using some simplifying assumptions which attains a new efficient frontier in which although the concept of systematic risk governs it, its fundamental defect will absolutely be applying market portfolio in the case of investing. This article aims to combine the theories of Markowitz and Sharpe to introduce a new model. This new model is much better and more efficient in comparison to Markowitz’s efficient frontier. Moreover, it reforms the exiting defect in Sharpe’s model The superiority of proposed model over Markowitz and Sharpe's traditional models from the view point of theory is definitely proven through paying attention to unsystematic risk, eliminating some assumptions of the traditional models and finally through finding the optimal portfolio of stocks for large cement corporations in Tehran stock exchange market.

Monetary policy can significantly affect real economic activity, at least in the short run, but the size and the duration of short run effects are intensely debated. Using a structural VAR (SVAR) approach, the purpose of this paper is to investigate monetary transmission mechanism in Iran during 1989:2–2007:3.The results indicate that in the long run, there was not any monetary transmission throughout channels in both models, but in SVAR credit channel had an effective role. Also we found that credit channel is the most effective channel in monetary transmission mechanism in Iran. These findings suggested we must monitor credit channel to be able to control monetary policy properly.

In this study, by making adjustments in the real business cycle models in a small open economy, a dynamic stochastic general model has been developed for the first time to study the business cycle prosperities of Iran. The findings of this research show that by viewing only the technologic shock, the volatilities in the macro variables fluctuations of the model will be much lower than the values observed for the economy of Iran, and by considering the role of oil prices shocks, the results of the model have better compatibility with the observations made in the economy of Iran and could explain some properties of the business cycles of Iran’s economy. The findings show that with a positive oil shocks, there will be an increase in consumption, investment and production and the results of the model are similar to those of real observations in the economy of Iran. The shocks in the global real interest rate have slight and trivial effects on production, consumption and investment. In addition, the results show that changes in the cyclic fluctuations in variables such as consumption, investment, production and the trade balance obtained by the model is slightly different from changes observed in the Iran’s economy. In the model, correlation and co-movement of consumption, investment and imports have been seen like real observations.

The main goal of this paper is to identify the factors affecting the efficiency of banking industry in Iran. Towards this ends, two methods namely, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) have been employed to investigate the issue in detail. The data needed for this study covers the period of 1002to 1002and are compiled from balance sheets of commercial banks, specialized banks and also from private banks. The results obtained by the application of DEA method indicate that in terms of economic, allocation, and technical consideration, the average efficiency of banking sectors has been in the order of 265, 775and 715, respectively. In the SFA method, the overall average efficiency of banking system is estimated tobe around %45. the results of our model and its coefficient estimates indicate that the efficiency of banking industry is inversely related to the size of the banks, its overall assets and concentration index while factors such as number of bank branches, its skilled and educated labor force, loan to asset ratio, ratio of credit risk to asset, and e-banking index have a positive impact on efficiency index of banking industry.Promotion of efficiency in the banking sectors can be ensured only when the non viable banks are taking over by acquisition or merging practices.