kambiz peykarjou

Throughout its lifetime, neoclassical economics has always faced a steady stream of criticisms and suggestions regarding alternative methods and methodical approaches. The insurance industry consists of a large number of investors with different sentiments. These investors can be faced with emotions such as fear or excitement. In the capital market, these same feelings of investors can become problematic. As many people gain in the stock market and their capital increases, many people may also suffer losses. This research is of an applied type and the data of the statistical sample of the research, which includes the information of customers buying products in the insurance industry during the years 2013-2014, will be analyzed. First, the research variables were calculated using Excel software, and then the data was analyzed in a panel format using Eviews software. In the following, the research hypotheses will be analyzed. Finally, with statistical analysis, it can be stated that the hypothesis of habit formation in buying life insurance by using multivariate and autoregressive conditional heterogeneity variance approach has a significant effect.

Monetary policy is a tool through which central banks manage the supply of money to achieve their goals, and it is one of the key elements of macroeconomic management, and its effectiveness is an important issue in the analysis of economic policies. The usual goals of monetary policy are to achieve or maintain full employment, to achieve or maintain a high rate of economic growth, and to stabilize prices. For this purpose, in this research, the effects of this policy on production and employment, which have been calibrated for the Iranian economy by considering frictional unemployment in the form of a monetary general equilibrium model, have been investigated. The results show that the effect of monetary growth on employment and production in a steady state may be non-linear depending on the two parameters of labor supply elasticity and elasticity of vacancies in job matches, so that the lower the labor supply elasticity and elasticity of vacancies in job matches, it is more likely that monetary growth will have adverse effects on employment and production. Also, in the framework of the model, the negative relationship between the unemployment rate and vacancies is calculated, and with the increase of the Quarterly monetary growth rate from zero to 5%, the employment and production values in a steady state, they increase by about 0.4%. In addition, considering the transition dynamic, with the reduction of the monetary growth rate from the level of the benchmark case to the level of 2.5%, the equilibrium values of the variables will converge to their new equilibrium values after 2.5 years. Therefore, it is suggested that the central bank should pay attention to the effectiveness of monetary policy on production and employment in order to achieve macroeconomic goals in recession and boom. And since monetary growth is not always unfavorable for production and employment, the effects of this reduction on production should be taken into account in inflation reduction policies.

Macroeconomic and welfare effects of financial policy, tax incentives in the production cycle (Mixed data pattern method with different frequency (MIDAS))Abstract:In this study, the macro-economic and welfare effects of financial policy, tax incentive in the production cycle were investigated using the combined data pattern method with different frequency (MIDAS) for different seasonal and annual time frames. In the estimated model, the annual data of the effective tax rate, the combined index of economic prosperity, current and construction expenditures of the government, and the seasonal data of the oil price and exchange rate, the volume of liquidity and the production index for the years 1370-1400 have been used. according to the model estimation results; Uncertainty of current and construction expenditures of the government, volume of liquidity, exchange rate fluctuations and crude oil price fluctuations have a positive effect and increasing economic security has a negative effect on the production gap. Fluctuations in exchange rates lead to an increase in the amount of external debt of manufacturing companies, and an increase in debt will lead to a lack of liquidity in general, which in general, lack of liquidity of economic enterprises has a negative effect on the production cycle. In general, it can be said that with the increase in volatility in Iran's economic situation, uncertainty in macro-financial and currency policies, oil price fluctuations and many other factors, the volatility in the Iranian market has increased and these factors are the reason for the decrease in production.Keywords: fiscal policy, tax incentive, production cycle, mixed data with different frequency.

In this paper, we investigate how novel approaches can improve the predictions made by traditional econometric approaches in the field of forecasting. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) is known as one of the most widely used methods for predicting economic and financial time series, providing a good framework, especially for short-term linear predictions of time series. However, the assumption of nonlinear effects in time series and the emergence of novel deep learning algorithms, which can extract complex features of time series and model them, have motivated researchers to examine the predictive power of traditional and novel modeling approaches. In this study, two methods are examined for predicting the prices of the four most valuable cryptocurrencies. ARIMA and three approaches in the field of deep learning, including (RNN, LSTM, and GRU), are investigated. In addition, a hybrid model of deep learning and ARIMA has been introduced, which is a combination of the strengths of both models to increase the accuracy of predictions. The results show that the hybrid models perform better in predicting future time series than each of the ARIMA and deep learning models separately. Also, the ARIMA-GRU model has fewer prediction error values than all estimated models.

The objective of this paper is to examine the welfare cost of inflation in the context of Iran's economy, incorporating labor market frictions (search theory) within a monetary general equilibrium model. The model also features a cash-in-advance constraint. To achieve this goal, through the utilization of calibration and sensitivity analysis in the steady state, the findings indicate that both employment and production are contingent on the elasticity of labor supply and the elasticity of vacancies in job matches. Depending on these two parameters, they may exhibit an increase in response to an escalation in the inflation rate. Additionally, the three-month optimal inflation rate in a stable state is determined to be 4.66%. The welfare gains, derived from reducing the three-month inflation rate from its current level of 5.3% to the optimal rate in a steady state, is calculated to be 0.0031% of total consumption. Therefore, based on the results, it is suggested that in inflation reduction policies, the effects of this reduction on welfare are taken into consideration, and special attention should be paid to the area of business investment by giving tax incentives, especially tax credits.

Four major approaches to financial analysis can be defined. Traditional, Ultra -Traditional, modern and postmodern approach. In the novel theory of business resilience system, in measuring financial risks or otherwise, conditions are provided that by comprehensiveness and also considering the rule of contingency paradigm, the possibility of measuring financial indicators and other cases on a case-by-case basis. Or comprehensive, be provided. Or comprehensive, be provided. Statistical data of listed companies in the period 1390 to 1398 were used. In this study, using different methods based on innovative financial instruments, the power of these instruments in estimating financial distress, traditional, ultra -Traditional, modern and postmodern perspectives are compared. Finally, it was found that the financial engineering method, relying on the theory of business resilience system in determining financial distress, reduces the fluctuation of the estimate and increases the accuracy of the estimate of financial distress. Of course, along with new methods, traditional methods should always be considered as indicators to determine the extent of financial distress and for comparison.

Bank controllers and regulators have always focused on bank capital and capital adequacy rate as two important factors for sustaining and improving banking activities. In this research, we have tried to investigate the role of capital and the relations between the banking sector with the economic real variables. We also sought to study the impact of bank capital on the real sector of an economy, using the DSGE model. Accordingly, in this model, to comply with the facts of Iran's economy, we defined the capital adequacy rate based on Basel I and II standards and took into account the probability of default for the loans and facilities of the banks and firms endogenously. Meantime, since the banking sector plays a crucial role in the country’s economy, we tried to examine the relations between the banks and Iran Central Bank (CBI) as the regulator within Iran's economic ecosystem.

To examine the actions and reactions of key dynamics of the Iranian banking sector with the economic real variables, we used Dynamic Stochastics General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, by using quarterly modified data during 1996-2019.

The results of simulating the model in response to the bank capital increase and oil positive shock on the defined variables proved the designed model to be highly consistent with the theoretical expectations and the past experiences of Iran's economy. Furthermore, it was found that due to the increase in oil price and the positive balance of payment because of the increase in the oil income, bank loans could be increased. Therefore, by improving economic variables temporarily, oil positive shock would result in a decrease in the probability of default in banks, whilst increasing their profits. The results also indicated that the bank capital can be considered a key factor for evaluating real variables in Iran's economy by the CBI, so the increase in bank income would temporarily end in a decrease in GDP, because of different factors, including the cost of bank finance and the loan rate.

It can be concluded that capital plays an important role in the bank transition mechanism to society and the Central Bank can also play an important role in the process through applying the needed changes in the capital adequacy rate. Nevertheless, as the increase in the capital adequacy rate in the long term would decrease risk and improve banking activities, it would affect real variables during the transition period. Furthermore, any increase in liquidity and bank loans would decrease the real interest rates, affecting the economic variables positively. In addition, the effects of any increase in oil income can be shown in bank profit. Therefore, oil shock changes can be generalized to other economic real variables.

This article examines the non-linear effect of inflation on the economic growth of Iran, Algeria, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria. So far, there have been many studies in the field of economic growth, in which different estimation methods have been used. The dependent variable of this research is GDP per capita as an indicator of economic growth, and the variables of inflation rate, investment, labor force, income from oil export and government expenditure have been used as explanatory variables. In the current study, using the non-linear distributional autoregressive model (NARDL) with the bound approach, the effect of inflation rate on the economic growth of the countries under investigation has been investigated asymmetrically. In this project, the positive changes in the inflation rate are shown with the POS variable and the negative changes in the inflation rate are shown with the NEG variable. The research period is 1990 to 2019 and the data are annualized. The results of Curran's test indicate the existence of a long-term relationship between research variables. The results in the case of Iran show that the variable coefficient of NEG is negative and significant, and the variable coefficient of POS is meaningless. In the case of Algeria, both coefficients of NEG and POS variables are negative and significant. For Nigeria, POS variable coefficient is negative and significant, but NEG variable coefficient is meaningless. Therefore, for all three countries of Iran, Algeria and Nigeria, the effect of inflation rate on growth is negative and due to the different coefficients of NEG and POS variables, this effect is non-linear. In the case of Saudi Arabia, both coefficients of POS and NEG variables are meaningless.

The soundness and validity of banks are one of the important subjects that neglecting them could have been leaded to adverse consequences for every countrychr('39')s economy. Therefore, investigation of relationship between efficiency and camel composite as a measurement of banking soundness and validity, within 16 Iranian bank data, between the years 1389 to 1396, has been studied. Efficiency has been estimated by the Translog cost function and stochastic frontier analysis, which its result shows an aggregate ascending trend. Camel composite which its calculation depends on arithmetic mean, is computed by exploratory factor analysis; exploring two factors, which is called financial ability and financial performance, is the result. For studding of variables relation, a panel data model and an auto regressive panel vector model have been used. The main result shows a positive financial ability and financial performance and significant relationship with efficiency; another result shows one side causality between financial performance and efficiency.

Investigating banks’ status has always been a concern to its management and regulatory decisions, which can be carried out by means of income diversification and CAMEL composite. The importance of income diversification is to decline the operation risk. The soundness of banking is also another essential component in the banking industry that can be evaluated by CAMEL. This article’s two primary goals are computing CAMEL composite index and investigating the relationship between income diversification and banking soundness, using CAMEL composite index within the financial statements of 16 Iranian banks between the years 2010 to 2017. This study applied an exploratory factor analysis (EFA) to compute the CAMEL composite calculated by arithmetic mean in the previous studies. In addition, the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI) has been used to calculate income diversification. The generalized method of moments (GMM) panel model has been utilized to study the relationship between variables. The result of EFA confirms two factors: financial ability and financial performance. The result of GMM panel model shows a positive and significant relationship between financial ability and financial performance on income diversification.

Based on studies conducted at the international, regional and national levels, this study identifies the factors affecting the productivity growth of all factors of production. Since the growth of productivity of all factors of production provides arrangements that ultimately increase the well-being of individuals in a society, such a study can be of great importance in advancing the convergence literature. To achieve this goal, a review of studies conducted in recent decades, it is necessary to distinguish between two categories of medium-term and long-term factors. Long-term variables are commonly known as the fundamental factors of growth in the economic literature and include such things as institutions, geography and trade. Mark similar items. Although this study is more of an overview of the medium-term factors affecting the productivity growth of total factors of production, but due to the complexity between these two categories of factors, the study of both is somewhat inevitable.

Solvency is one of the essential components that illustrates financial status of an insurance company. Therefore, providing a model with considering internal and external factors which could predict decreasing solvency can improve the efficiency of this index. The main purpose of this paper is to present a model for an early warning system based on decreasing probability of solvency from its critical amount in point of supervisory authority view in Iranian insurers. To this end, based on previous studies, a number of indexes, as independent variables affecting solvency, are selected and classified as economic, financial, and corporate governance. In this respect, the empirical model of research was estimated by econometric method of logit panel data for 18 Iranian companies during 1387-1396. The results depict that interest rates and the change in board of directors have the most and the least impact on the probability of falling insurers’ solvency, respectively. Also, the impact of loss ratio differs in various quantities. Moreover, the impact of variables on probability of decreasing of solvency of insurers are verified; including macroeconomic; interest rate, economic growth and international economic sanctions, Financial variables; current ratio, loss ratio, the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index, and change in board of directors.

Financial solvency is one of the essential components that illustrates financial status of a financial enterprise, at large, or an insurance company to be specific. In addition to solvency ratio, other metrics and indices are also early warning indicators of an upcoming crisis in insurance industry. Therefore, the main purpose of the present paper is to provide a model for an early warning system of solvency for insurance companies and Iranian insurance companies in particular. To this end, a number of indexes and ratios, as independent variables affecting solvency, are selected and classified as economic, corporate, and corporate governance, that distinct this article from other studies. In this respect, the empirical model of research was estimated by econometric method of panel data for 18 Iranian companies during 1387-1396. The results of the research depict that interest rates with one-period delay and the change in board of directors have the most and the least impact on Iranian insurers’ solvency, respectively. Also, due to its cube strength, the impact of loss ratio differs in various quantities. Moreover, all hypotheses that are based on meaningful impact of variables on financial solvency of Iranian insurers are verified; including macroeconomic (inflation rate with one delay), interest rate (with one delay), economic growth (with one delay), corporate variables (ratio of investments in risky assets to all assets), loss ratio, the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index, and corporate governance (percentage of major shareholder’s ownership and change in board of directors) along with international economic sanctions.

In the theory of microeconomics, in discussions related to consumer behavior, it is usually assumed that the household acts as a decision-making unit like an individual, and for a household, a budget constraint and a utility function are considered. As a result, only the general behavior of the household will be observable and analyzed. Since the 1980s, this method, which is called the Unitary Household Model, has been criticized theoretically and empirically, and issues such as the inequality of household members have been raised. In contrast to the Unitary Household model, Collective Household Model was proposed in consumer behavior. According to this method, in multi-member households, each member has their own preferences, and what can be important between these members is the intra-household bargaining process. In this article, at first, we will give an introduction including the theoretical foundation and the background of the research, then, while introducing the unitary model as an introduction to collective models, we will examine the collective model and inta-household collective models. At the end, the contents are summarized and suggestions for future research are presented.

This paper aimed to create a composite index for environmental quality. Since the results of empirical studies on economic - environmental variables nexus, considering different environmental indicators, are not consistent with each other; it seems necessary to use a comprehensive index that includes all dimensions of environmental pollution.

Using 6 environmental indicators related to two groups of selected OPEC and OECD countries for the period 2010 to 2019 and using three methods including principal component analysis, kernel-based principal component analysis, fuzzy robust principal component analysis, the creation of a composite environmental quality index is examined.

The results showed that FRPCA method has more efficiency and ability in weighting environmental indicators than other methods due to having the lowest error criteria. Therefore, using this method, the composite index was calculated. Moreover, the results showed that along with the upward trend of economic growth, the quality of the environment follows a downward trend in OPEC countries and an upward trend in OECD countries.

 Based on the results, policy recommendations as well as new perspectives and suggestions for future studies are presented.

Oil price shocks have an undesirable effect on financial stability and banking systems, in addition to creating uncertainty and negative effects on the macroeconomic performance of oil-exporting countries. In fact, the dependency of government spending policies on oil price movements in oil exporting countries creates feedback loops between asset prices and bank credits that could lead to an increase in vulnerability of the financial sector. Therefore, considering the importance of the issue, this study aims to investigate the asymmetric effects of oil prices on non-performing loans (NPLs), as credit risk criteria, by applying data from 18 selected banks in Iran during 2006-2017. In this regard, the relationship between variables has been estimated using Panel Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PANEL NARDL). The predictability of symmetric and asymmetric PANEL ARDL models is assessed by applying RMSE and Campbell and Thompson (2008) tests. The results show that the asymmetric model has better performance and efficiency than the symmetric model. These asymmetric effects are significant in both short-term and long-term. Based on the results, the impact of oil price on the NPLs of some banks is positive and in the others is negative and significant.

Transportation activities and related services can be considered as a link between all sectors and economic activities, and it is considered as one of the factors influencing the development of the economy. Considering the position of the transportation sector in the economy, the purpose of this study is to investigate the short and long-term causality relationship between transport variables and economic growth in Iran's provinces. In this regard, the variables of the volume of freight transported through the air transport fleet and the number of its passengers are considered as representative of the transportation sector. For this purpose, using panel data during the years 2005-2017 and cointegration approaches, Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS), Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Granger causality method, examined the long-term and short-run causality relationships among the above variables. The results of this study show that in the short run, the Granger causality relationship is not significant between these variables, but according to the output of the DOLS model, in the long run, the positive effect of the number of passengers on economic growth is greater than the volume of load. In this study, the error correction component, which indicates the speed of adjusting the short run to long-term equilibrium, has been evaluated. Estimates show that there is a one-way Granger causality relation between the volume of displaced load and economic growth. Also, this relationship for the number of passengers and economic growth variables is one-way from passenger to economic growth.

The transportation industry of any country represents the economic situation and the extent of its industrial development, so it can be considered as one of the important factors in the economic, cultural and social development, etc. of each region. Therefore, the growth of economic activities in Iran and the need for faster transportation of people and goods enables the country to serve as the main transport hub for export, import and transit. Reviewing the role of this type of Transportation is important in economic growth and can be effective in identifying opportunities and challenges, and ultimately providing a better view for policymakers and operators in this field. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to investigate the role of air transportation (number of passengers and the volume of freight transported) on economic value added in the provinces of the country (31 provinces) between 2005 and 2017. The results of this study, using the dynamic panel econometric approach (Generalized Method of Moments or GMM), show the positive and significant effects of variables on the number of air transport passengers and education, as well as the negative and significant effects of unemployment and the volume of freight transported by air transportation on the economic value added of the provinces of Iran. According to the results, it can be argued that air transportation of passenger in the country's situation during the period of this study can be the factor for growing economic value-added, while, the freight transportation in terms of the costs has not economic efficiency. Furthermore, the results illustrate that establishing international airports in the province has a positive effect on economic value-added and also the value-added of the previous period has positive and significant effects on current economic value-added which represent dynamic of growth.

The economic growth model can examine the direct and indirect effects of human capital on economic growth. One of the indirect factors is environmental pollution. But in the meantime, one should not overlook the limitations of the advocates of this theory, such as the Impact of Human Capital Utilization on reducing environmental pollution, in order to achieve goals and policies similar to those of developed economies. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of human capital on Kuznets’ emphasized relationship, the threshold relation of environmental pollution and economic growth.

Therefore, using the data from 14 countries in the MENA area for the period 2000 - 2016, the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) or dynamic data panel method was used to test the hypothesis.

The relationship between environmental pollution (CO2 emissions) and economic growth is nonlinear and the Kuznets curve hypothesis in the selected research sample confirms the existence of an inverse U-shaped relationship between economic growth and pollution emissions. Higher the human capital with the current level of greenhouse gas emissions, lead to the higher economic growth in selected countries.

Increased growth due to the accumulation of human capital can play a moderating role on the negative relationship between environmental pollution and economic growth of the selected research set. With the increase of human capital at any level of environmental pollution, the threshold point of the negative relationship between environmental pollution and economic growth is delayed. In other words, as knowledge-based and human capital-based development increases the negative relationship between environmental pollution and economic growth is moderated.

The soundness and efficiency of banks is one of the important subjects that neglecting it can have adverse consequences for every country's economy. For economies depending on the money market, such as the Iran economy, this subject is more critical. Therefore, in this study, using panel data related to 16 Iranian banks for the annual period of 2010-2017, the economic efficiency was determined using a translog cost function and stochastic frontier analysis method then, by estimating the model of panel vector autoregression model and Granger causality test, the causal relationships between efficiency and information asymmetry in terms of adverse selection ( the ratio of loans to assets and the ratio of loans to deposits) and moral hazard ( the ratio of non-performing loans), were investigated, both of which are caused due to the information asymmetry. The estimations confirm the unilateral causal relationship of adverse selection and moral hazard with banking system efficiency. And, on the contrary, they claim that low efficiency of the banking system increases the adverse selection and moral hazard is not confirmed. Besides, the results of other estimates based on the panel model with random effects indicate a negative and significant impact of moral hazard and adverse selection on efficiency.

In recent years, the factors that influence economic growth have traversed beyond the set of factors that are proposed in conventional growth theories; namely, institutional factors have been considered by researchers. Why some countries are moving toward rich countries in terms of economic performance is a question that has long occupied the minds of economists, and the answer to this question is fundamental as to the formation of economic growth patterns. In this study, based on the division of countries in terms of development, it has been examined as to which of the institutional variables have the highest priority in influencing economic growth. To this end, using a dynamic system data approach, the resource curse phenomenon in the studied countries is first studied and then analyzed using variables such as variables of the institutional environment, human capital, and other control variables affecting economic growth. In this study, two groups of (developing and developed) countries have been studied, which are estimated and analyzed for the period 1995-2016. Analysis of research coefficients shows that the resource curse phenomenon is existent in the developing countries but not in developed countries. On the other hand, the analysis of the results of the coefficients of the variables of different models show that the weak institutional qualities and the low level of development of human capital have led to the intensification of the resource curse in the countries in question.

It is generally believed that macroeconomic and financial performance in oil exporting countries is interlinked to oil price movements. Regarding that assumption, the present study aims to examine the impact of oil price movements on bank nonperforming loans (NPLs) ,as a criterion for evaluation of bank credit risk, by applying the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) on data from 18 Iranian banks data over period 2006–2017. The result of the estimated model indicates that there is a significant relation between fluctuations of oil price and bank nonperforming loans; accordingly, any decrease in the price of oil will result in an increase in bank nonperforming loans. Also, in order to have comprehensive assessment, economic and bank specific control variables were used in the model. Findings show that the NPLs ratio increases as economic growth decreases and exchange rate and real interest rates rise. Among bank specific factors, equity ratio as a criterion for efficiency and loan growth has a negative effect on NPLs, but by raising bank industry concentration, credit risk and financial stability can be threatened. Thus, the reliance of oil rich economies on oil incomes leads to the linkage of oil prices, and macroeconomic and financial performance. Therefore, the result of this study will be useful in adapting and diversifying macroeconomic policies in the face of drastic changes in oil prices and mitigating its adverse effects.

The main challenge of developing countries is to achieve growth and development. The extant economic growth literature illustrates that the quality of institutions and social infrastructure are important factors that influence the economic growth and development. Accordingly, many analysts believe that regarding such institutional factors, the rule of law is one of the most prominent aspects necessary for a system to achieve investment and economic growth. This study aims to investigate the impact of institutional variables on economic growth in developed and developing countries for the period 1995-2015. To this end, Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model has been used. The estimation results of model reject the linearity hypothesis, and estimate a model with two regimes that proposes a threshold at institutional quality indicators of 0.1627 and 0.625 for the countries under study. It is demonstrated that the factor of rule of law has a positive impact on economic growth; however, this impact is higher in the second regime. The results also show that in both regimes, the variables of institutional quality indices, economic freedom, human capital and other control variables have a positive effect on economic growth. Moreover, the intensity of the variables influencing the changes in both groups intensifies when institutional quality improves.

Cinema demand in Tehran has been decreased during last 2 decades. Therefore, this paper is aimed to estimate the function of demand for cinema in Tehran based on the Tehran's time series data during 1985-2010 periods. This research tries to use Case Study Research Method. Also according to Neo-Classic Demand Theory and econometric models is used Ordinary Least Square Technique (OLS) for demand function of cinema in Tehran. This estimation is carried out by Eviews-IV econometric modeling package
In this research we have selected the best logarithmic equation as function of demand for cinema in Tehran after estimating some equations and testing them. All relevant test statistics indicated that there is relation between these variables. We start our analysis with the specification of several approaches for cinema demand. According to calculation all of cinema demands elasticity; we analyzed the effective factors on cinema demand in Tehran, such as price ticket, consumer's income index, substitute and supplementary goods 1985-2010 periods. However, in this study we found that the cinema demand is inversely related to the price and the income. Thus the cinema in Tehran as a cultural good may indeed be seen as a luxury one.

Value at Risk (VaR) is an index which is used by insurance companies in order to make appropriate decision about accepting or rejecting the risk of different types of risks, defining the amount of their reinsurance retention level according to their maximum allowed capacity and also make decision about their reinsurance ceding level. In this paper, VaR is calculated by using GARCH and ARMA models and then, by anticipating the model for future years (if company’s decision making trend in insurance risk selection method is continued on the same trend) we defined that the company has a suitable situation and uncommon risks will not threat it.