masoud safaipour

The conditions and factors affecting the future development of tourism require decision-making in complex and dynamic current conditions, and in fact, it is futurology to be able to identify many of the effective threats and opportunities. The aim of this research is to develop drivers affecting the tourism status of Ahvaz city with a futurology approach. Accordingly, this research is applied in terms of purpose, and in terms of nature, it is based on new methods of futurology, analytical and exploratory, which has been carried out using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. Library methods in this research have been documentary and library. Qualitative data were collected with an open questionnaire and through interviews and review of documents, and quantitative data were used numerically and through weighting questionnaires prepared in Delphi form. The statistical population of the research consisted of 60 experts. Finally, the Mic Mac software was used to analyze the variables. Based on the results obtained from 48 variables, physical-environmental, social-cultural, institutional-organizational, and economic-financial factors have the greatest impact on the tourism of Ahvaz city. Based on the degree of susceptibility and impact of the variables, 13 variables are influential, 15 variables are in the risk spectrum, 11 variables are in the susceptibility spectrum, and 9 variables have a low degree of impact and susceptibility. Finally, based on the effects of the variables, the direct and indirect relationships of the variables in 5 spectra are very weak, weak, medium, relatively strong, and very strong effects have been categorized.

Considering the reduction of fossil fuels and the increase of carbon dioxide caused by these fuels, the transition to renewable and low-carbon energies is inevitable. In this regard, the high capacity of Ahvaz city in the direction of the development of various types of renewable energy can be achieved, which not only reduces energy consumption and costs, but also leads to a cleaner and more stable environment. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to write a scenario for the development of renewable energies in Ahvaz metropolis. The current research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of method, survey and descriptive-analytical. The necessary information was collected in the form of documents, library and field (questionnaire and interview). The statistical community of the current research is made up of experts in the fields of city and energy. The sampling method in this research is stratified sampling proportional to the volume. Also, the method of analysis was quantitative, which used scenario writing wizard. The results show that the total score of compatible scenarios or in other words the impact of all scenarios is 126, the results of which show the importance of the scenarios of solar energy development for energy supply, development of solar energy within industries, development of solar panels at the level of offices and organizations. The development of solar panels in residential areas is the most compatible and the scenario of continuing the use of fossil fuels for energy production and the development and establishment of nuclear power plants in the region are the least compatible for the development in the city of Ahvaz.