rasoul abbasi taghi dizaj
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زمینه و هدف
سکونت گاه های غیررسمی به عنوان کانون های خطر و مرکز انباشت انواع آسیب های اجتماعی و جرم قلمداد می شوند. به گونه ای که این محلات جزء مسئله دارترین و شکننده ترین محلات در مقایسه با سایر محلات شهری می باشند. بر این مبنا هدف اساسی پژوهش حاضر بررسی آسیب های اجتماعی محلات شهراردبیل با تاکید بر محلات فرودست شهری جهت برنامه ریزی آتی می باشد.
روشپژوهش حاضر از لحاظ هدف کاربردی و از لحاظ روش توصیفی- تحلیلی است که در زمره مطالعات وابستگی قرار می گیرد که به روش پیمایشی انجام گرفته است. جامعه آماری پژوهش منطبق بر محلات 15 گانه سکونت گاه های غیررسمی شهر اردبیل است. حجم نمونه با استفاده از فرمول کوکران 382 نفر برآورد شد. جهت افزایش دقت کار مجموعا 450 پرسش نامه به روش نمونه گیری تصادفی ساده انتخاب شدند (هریک از محلات هدف 30 پرسش نامه) توزیع و تکمیل شد. به منظور ارزیابی مولفه های موثر بر آسیب های اجتماعی در محلات حاشیه نشین شهر اردبیل از 6 مولفه (اقتصادی، محیطی، اجتماعی- فرهنگی، خانوادگی، فردی- روانی، مدیریتی) بهره برده شد. برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها از نرم افزارهای لیزرل و اس پی اس اس استفاده شده است.
یافته هانتایج آزمون تی تک نمونه ای نشان داد که تمامی مولفه های مورد بررسی جزء عوامل موثر در آسیب های اجتماعی در محلات فرودست شهری اردبیل هستند چرا که نتایج آزمون تمام متغیرها مثبت بوده و نمره بیش تر از عدد حد وسط (3) کسب نموده اند. سطح معناداری متغیرها نیز از 05/0 کم تر مشاهده شد، بنابراین فرضیه پژوهش با سطح 95 درصد مورد تایید واقع شد. با عنایت به این که همه مولفه های مورد بررسی دارای بار عاملی بیش تر از 4/0 کسب کردند، از این رو نتایج حاصل از ضریب مسیر (β) حاکی از روابط مثبت بین متغیرهای پژوهش می باشد. هم چنین مقدار ضریب شاخص های RMSEA برابر با (71/0) و ضریب chi-Square (35/415) به دست آمد بنابراین می توان ادعا کرد که مدل پژوهش نشان از برازش خوب و مطلوب برخوردار می باشد.
نتیجه گیریدر پژوهش حاضر بیش ترین میانگین به ترتیب به مولفه اقتصادی و مدیریتی و کم ترین میانگین نیز به مولفه فردی- روانی اختصاص دارد.
کلید واژگان: آسیب اجتماعی، محلات حاشیه نشین، محلات فرودست، شهر اردبیلInformal settlements are considered as centers of danger and center of accumulation all kinds of social damage and crime, and they are among the most problematic and fragile neighborhoods compared to other urban neighborhoods. Based on this, the main goal the current research is investigate the social harms the neighborhoods of Ardabil city with an emphasis on lower urban neighborhoods for future planning.The current research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method. The statistical population of the research corresponds to the 15 informal settlements of Ardabil city. 6 components (economic, environmental, socio-cultural, family, individual-psychological, management) were used to evaluate the factors affecting social damage in the suburbs of Ardabil. LISREL and SPSS software were used to analyze the data.The results the one-sample T-test showed that all the investigated components are among the effective factors in social damage in the lower urban areas of Ardabil. The significance level of the variables was also less than 0.05. Given that all the investigated components had a factor load greater than 0.4, the results of the path coefficient (β) indicate positive relationships between the research variables. Also, the value of the RMSEA coefficient was equal to (0.71) and the chi-square coefficient was (41.35), so it can be claimed that the research model has a good and favorable fit.Among the investigated components in the current research, the highest average is assigned to the economic and managerial variables, and the lowest average is assigned to the individual-psychological variable.
Keywords: Social Damage, Marginalized Neighborhoods, Inferior Neighborhoods, Ardabil City -
به دنبال افزایش جمعیت شهرها و توسعه زندگی شهرنشینی، شهرها همواره با انواع مشکلات کالبدی، اجتماعی، اقتصادی، زیست محیطی مواجه بوده اند. در عصر حاضر رفع این معضلات به مهم ترین چالش های برنامه ریزان شهری تبدیل شده است. در این راستا برنامه ریزی با رویکرد زیست پذیری شهری می تواند ظرفیت های لازم را برای مقابله با این معضلات ایجاد نماید. در این میان محلات اسکان غیررسمی را می توان بخش های فراموش شده و برنامه ریزی نشده ای درمقایسه با سایر محلات شهری دانست که به لحاظ زیست پذیری بسیارشکننده می باشند. از این رو، هدف پژوهش حاضر، سنجش سکونتگاه های غیررسمی شهراردبیل بر مبنای شاخص های زیست پذیری شهری و اولویت بندی آن ها جهت برنامه ریزی آتی انجام گرفته است. این پژوهش از لحاظ هدف کاربردی و از لحاظ روش توصیفی- تحلیلی است. داده های مورد نیاز از طریق روش های میدانی گردآوری شده اند. جامعه آماری تحقیق منطبق بر محلات 15 گانه سکونتگاه های غیررسمی شهر اردبیل می باشد. جهت سنجش میزان زیست پذیری در محلات هذف، شاخص های مربوطه با استفاده از روش آنتروپی وزن دهی و محلات هدف با بهره گیری از تکنیک های تصمیم گیری رتبه بندی و برای دست یابی به اولویت بندی نهایی از تکنیک ادغامی کپ لند استفاده شد. بر اساس مولفه های به کاررفته در پژوهش حاضر و نتایج حاصل از پیاده سازی تکنیک های مختلف تصمیم گیری، محله سلمان آباد در رتبه نخست و محله ایران آباد با کسب کمترین امتیاز در رتبه آخر به لحاظ زیست پذیری قرار گرفتند. لذا برنامه ریزی جهت ارتقای شاخص های زیست پذیری متناسب با نقاط ضعف و قوت و اولویت هر محله ضروری می نماید.کلید واژگان: زیست پذیری، سکونتگاه های غیررسمی، شهراردبیلFollowing the increase in the population of cities and the development of urban life, cities have always faced all kinds of physical, social, economic, and environmental problems. In today's era, solving these problems has become the most important challenge for urban planners. In this regard, planning with the approach of urban livability can create the necessary capacities to deal with these problems. Meanwhile, informal settlements can be considered forgotten and unplanned parts compared to other urban areas, which are very fragile in terms of livability. Therefore, the aim of this research is to measure the informal settlements of Ardabil city based on urban livability indicators and to prioritize them for future planning. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method. The required data have been collected through field methods. The statistical population of the research corresponds to the 15 informal settlements of Ardabil city. In order to measure the level of livability in the removal areas, the relevant indicators were used using the weighting entropy method, and the target areas were ranked using decision-making techniques, and the Cape Land integration technique was used to achieve the final prioritization. Based on the components used in the present research and the results of the implementation of various decision-making techniques, Salman Abad neighborhood ranked first and Iran Abad neighborhood ranked last in terms of livability with the lowest score. Therefore, it is necessary to plan to improve livability indicators according to the strengths and weaknesses and priorities of each neighborhood.Keywords: Livability, Informal Settlements, Ardabil City
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در کشورهای درحال توسعه، به دلیل فاحش بودن تفاوت های اجتماعی اقتصادی، نابرابری و نبود تعادل در خدمات شهری، تفاوت فضایی شهرها تشدید شده و جدایی گزینی های فضایی در شهر پدید آمده است. سطوح مختلفی از این پدیده طی فرآیند توسعه افقی و ادغام روستاها در شهر، در عرصه های روستاشهری بروز پیدا می کند. از این رو هدف پژوهش حاضر تحلیل جدایی گزینی در عرصه های روستاشهری با تاکید بر توسعه میان افزا در شهر اردبیل می باشد. روش تحقیق حاضر توصیفی- اکتشافی است. جامعه آماری تحقیق کارشناسان و متخصصان (آشنا مباحث جدایی گزینی شهری) شهر اردبیل می باشند که به دلیل مشخص نبودن تعداد آنها و ابهام در میزان آشنایی آنها با مباحث جدایی گزینی شهری (بخصوص شاخص های جدایی گزینی در عرصه های روستاشهری)، از روش گلوله برفی به شناسایی کارشناسان اقدام شد. در این خصوص تعداد نمونه کارشناسان تا حصول شناخت بهتر و اشباع نظری در پاسخ های دریافتی (نزدیکی و تکرار پاسخ ها)، ادامه یافت و نهایتا به 10 نفر رسید. در همین خصوص بعد از اینکه شاخص های جدایی گزینی در عرصه های روستاشهری از طریق مطالعات کتابخانه ای استخراج شد، با کارشناسان مذکور مصاحبه شد و پس از جمع بندی شاخص ها، روایی محتوایی چالش ها به دست آمد و نهایتا پرسشنامه تخصصی میزان تاثیرگذاری و تاثیرپذیر شاخص ها، باز هم از طریق همان 10 کارشناس مربوطه مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت.
کلید واژگان: جدایی گزینی، عرصه های روستا شهری، توسعه میان افزا، اردبیلIn developing countries, due to the extreme socio-economic differences, inequality and lack of balance in urban services, the spatial difference between cities has intensified and spatial separation has emerged in the city. Different levels of this phenomenon appear in rural-urban areas during the process of horizontal development and integration of villages in the city. Therefore, the aim of the current research is to analyze the separation and selection in rural-urban areas with emphasis on the development of Mian Afza in Ardabil city. The current research method is descriptive-exploratory. The statistical population of the research is the experts and specialists (familiar with the topics of urban segregation) of Ardabil city, due to the unknown number of them and the ambiguity of their familiarity with the topics of urban segregation (especially the indicators of segregation in the fields of Rostashahri), experts were identified using the snowball method. In this regard, the number of expert samples continued until obtaining better knowledge and theoretical saturation in the answers received (closeness and repetition of answers), and finally reached 10 people. In this regard, after the selection indicators in rural and urban areas were extracted through library studies, the aforementioned experts were interviewed and after summarizing the indicators, the content validity of the challenges was obtained. Finally, the specialized questionnaire of the effectiveness and effectiveness of the indicators was again evaluated by the same 10 relevant expert.
Keywords: Segregation, urban village areas, intermediate development, Ardabil -
Purpose
In this study, to discover the causes for the success of students and schools in scientific Olympiads with two separate analysis units, a minimal theoretical framework was set based on the coexistence of different analytical levels.
MethodologyIn this research, two strategies of Grounded Theory (GT) and comparative case study were used. The number of cases studied in both studies was 10 (ten successful students, five successful schools, and five unsuccessful schools). For the validity and reliability of the measuring instrument, the intercoder agreement and the review of the results by the members and in the comparative study of real and theoretical repetition were used.
FindingsThis study showed that students' success in scientific Olympiads is a function of the constructive interaction of the two main institutions (school Olympiad atmosphere and attracting family support) and regional success experience. Other factors such as student cognitive interest, the attractiveness of Olympiad competition, and external incentives are also important. The results of comparative analysis of schools are parallel to the results of the above research and complement it, as the results showed that among the successful schools, almost all the main criteria, including the seminar to introduce parents to attract their support, educational counseling, and classes by former medalists, among other factors, determine the success of schools.
ConclusionAccording to the findings, it should be said that the success of students and schools in the scientific Olympiad is affected by several factors at the micro, Intermediate, and macro levels, including the quality of the actors to the synergistic atmosphere of school and family.
Keywords: Scientific Olympiad, Grounded Theory, Case Study, Quality of Action Agents, School, Family -
موضوع این پژوهش تحلیل کیفی عوامل موثر بر موفقیت دانش آموزان در جشنواره جوان خوارزمی است. در تبیین این موضوع سعی شد یک چارچوب نظری حداقلی تنظیم شود که مجموع عوامل سطوح خرد، میانی و کلان را در بر می گیرد. روش این مطالعه کیفی بوده و از مدلسازی ساختاری- تفسیری استفاده شد. این مطالعه در سال 1400 انجام شد. با توجه به موفقیت استان یزد در جشنواره جوان خوارزمی، این استان بر اساس روش نمونه گیری نظری هدفمند به عنوان مورد، برای مطالعه انتخاب شد. در این پروژه از 10 کارشناس آموزش و پرورش استان یزد که متولی برنامه جشنواره جوان خوارزمی بوده و در امر آماده سازی دانش آموزان فعالیت داشتند، مصاحبه به عمل آمد. نتایج این پژوهش مبین آن است که موفقیت در جشنواره جوان خوارزمی بیشتر از عوامل جذب پرسنل کاردان، مسیولیت پذیری پرسنل، بهره گیری از مشاوران متخصص، تامین اساتید راهنما و مشاور، پشتیبانی تخصصی و تلاش و پشتکار دانش آموز متاثر بوده و از نظر کارشناسان این عوامل نسبت به سایر عوامل، نقش بنیادینی در موفقیت دانش آموزان در جشنواره جوان خوارزمی دارند. البته نباید از نقش عامل اجرای طرح استعداد یابی غافل شد که به مثابه عناصر مولد و زیربنایی عمل می کنند. همچنین عوامل اطلاع رسانی مکفی، شناسایی و جذب حامی مالی، حمایت و پشتیبانی مدرسه، خانواده و سازمان های دولتی. لذا در این رابطه مجموع عواملی در سطوح مختلف نقش دارند.
کلید واژگان: جشنواره جوان خوارزمی، موفقیت، کارآفرینی، روش کیفی، مدلسازی ساختاری- تفسیریThe subject of this study is the qualitative analysis of the factors affecting the success of students in the Kharazmi Young Festival. In explaining this issue, an attempt was made to set a minimal theoretical framework that includes all the factors of micro, messo and macro levels.The method of this study was qualitative and structural-interpretive modeling was used. This study was conducted in 1400. Due to the success of Yazd province in the Kharazmi Young Festival, this province was selected as a case study based on purposive theoretical sampling method. In this project, 10 education experts from Yazd province, who were in charge of the Kharazmi Youth Festival program and were active in preparing students, were interviewed.. The results of this study show that the success of the Kharazmi Young Festival is more affected by the factors of attracting skilled staff, staff responsibility, using expert consultants, providing mentors and advisors, professional support and student effort and perseverance. Of course, the role of implementing the talent search plan should not be overlooked, which acts as productive and infrastructural elements. Also adequate information factors, identification and attraction of sponsors, support of schools, families and government organizations. Therefore, in this regard, a set of factors play a role at different levels.
Keywords: Kharazmi Young Festival, Success, Entrepreneurship, Qualitative Method, Structural-Interpretive Modeling -
هدف
هدف پژوهش حاضر احصاء مجموعه عواملی است که بر مشارکت دانش آموزان در المپیادهای علمی تاثیرگذار است. عطف به هدف فوق، چارچوب نظری مسیله در سطوح خرد، میانی و کلان شکافته شده و تعامل آنها با هم مورد مداقه قرار گرفت.
روش پژوهش:
در این پژوهش از روش پیمایش و ابزار پرسشنامه استفاده شد. تکنیک آماری به کار رفته در این روش، تحلیل تشخیصی بود. برای احصاء روایی ابزار پرسشنامه از اعتبار صوری و برای محاسبه پایایی آن از آلفای کرونباخ استفاده شد. روش انتخاب نمونه هدفمند بود و به منظور امکان مقایسه بین دو مجموعه موارد (شرکت کنندگان و عدم شرکت کنندگان) جامعه آماری همگنی انتخاب شده و 384 نمونه بر اساس شیوه علمی نمونه گیری مورد مطالعه قرار گرفت.
یافته ها:
این مطالعه که به دنبال دستیابی به تابعی برای تعیین اهمیت هر متغیر مستقل در تمیز گروه ها از همدیگر بود، توانست تفاوت های معنی دار بین این دو گروه را شناسایی کرده و بر اساس تمایزی که در متغیرهای مستقل ایجاد شد، پیش بینی کند که مشارکت کنندگان در المپیاد در متغیرهای مستقل تفاوتی با مشارکت نکنندگان دارند. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که متغیرهای کیفیت آموزشی مدرسه، پایگاه اقتصادی و اجتماعی والدین، جو المپیادی مدرسه، نظام ارزشگذاری دانش آموز، توانایی و قابلیت وی و همچنین تشویق والدین قادر به پیش بینی عضویت دانش آموزان در دو گروه مشارکت کننده/ عدم مشارکت کننده هستند. در تحلیل معادله به دست آمده می توان گفت که مشارکت کنندگان در المپیادهای علمی کشور در ارتباط با این متغیرها، تفاوت معنی داری با مشارکت نکنندگان داشته و تابع تشخیصی برآورد شده می تواند عضویت افراد را در دو گروه متفاوت به درستی پیش بینی نماید.
نتیجه گیری:
با توجه به نتایج کسب شده می توان گفت که یافته های تجربی مبین چارچوب نظری پژوهش است. یعنی در مشارکت/ عدم مشارکت دانش آموزان در المپیاد علمی عوامل متعددی در سطوح خرد و میانی تاثیر دارد. عواملی که از کیفیت عاملان کنش شروع شده و حمایت های خانواده و مدرسه را در سطح نهادی دربرمی گیرد.
کلید واژگان: المپیاد علمی، مشارکت، تحلیل چند سطحی، تحلیل تشخیصیObjectiveThe purpose of this study is to enumerate a set of factors that affect students' participation in scientific olympiads. Turning to the above goal, the theoretical framework of the problem was explored at the micro and messo levels and their interaction with each other was examined.
MethodsIn this research, survey method and questionnaire were used. The statistical technique used in this method was diagnostic analysis. In order to calculate the validity of the questionnaire tool, face validity was used and to calculate its reliability, Cronbach's alpha was used. The sample selection method was purposeful and in order to compare between the two sets of cases (participants and non-participants) the homogeneity statistical population was selected and 384 samples were studied based on the scientific method of sampling.
ResultsThis study, which sought to obtain a function to determine the importance of each independent variable in distinguishing groups from each other, was able to identify significant differences between the two groups and, based on the distinction made in the independent variables, predict that Participants in the Olympiad are different from non-participants in independent variables.The results showed that the variables of school educational quality, parents' economic and social status, school olympiad atmosphere, student evaluation system, his ability and ability as well as parents' encouragement were able to predict students' membership in two groups of participants / non-participants
ConclusionAccording to the obtained results, it can be said that the experimental findings are a kind of indicative of the theoretical framework of the research. In other words, several factors affect the participation / non-participation of students in this scientific competition at the micro and intermediate levels. Factors that start with the quality of the actors and include school and family support at the institutional level
Keywords: Scientific Olympiad, Participation, multilevel analysis, diagnostic analysis -
هدف این پژوهش، تبیین جامعه شناختی عوامل موثر بر وقوع جرایم خشونت آمیز در سطح کلان است. در این راستا، با طرح نظریه تلفیقی، شناخت سازوکار علی وقوع نتیجه مدنظر قرار گرفت. روش مطالعه، رویکرد تطبیقی کیفی بود و از رهیافت منطق فازی استفاده شد. نتایج شرایط لازم و کافی منفرد وقوع نتیجه در مجموع موارد مثبت نشان دادند شروط حاکمیت قانون، فرصت شغلی، برابری اقتصادی و کارآیی دولت به تنهایی شروط کافی وقوع نتیجه اند. غیاب دو شرط برابری اقتصادی و فرصت شغلی بین مجموعه موارد منفی نیز نشان دهنده اهمیت نظری و تجربی این دو شرط در تبیین خشونت در سطح کلان است. در علیت عطفی و ترکیبی، معادله نهایی پژوهش حاضر نشان داد ترکیب شروط برابری اقتصادی، سرمایه رابطه ای، مردم سالاری، پاسخگویی دولت، کارآیی دولت، حاکمیت قانون و فرصت فرهنگی، قدرت تبیینی بالایی درباره وقوع نتیجه مدنظر دارند و این ادعا در تبیین نتیجه در هر دو مجموعه موارد مثبت و منفی (یعنی کشورهایی که میزان خشونت در آنها کم است و کشورهایی که میزان خشونت در آنها زیاد است) صدق می کند. نکته مهم آن است که برابری اقتصادی لزوما در همه موارد با نتیجه همراه نیست. چه بسا با تنظیم ساختاری کارا، نابرابری اقتصادی لزوما ایجادکننده جرایم خشونت آمیز نباشد؛ بنابراین، نتیجه تا حد زیادی با داشتن مجموعه دلایل زمینه مند، به ترکیب عوامل بستگی دارد.
کلید واژگان: خشونت، فرصت های متوازن، کیفیت حاکمیت، قواعد اجتماعی، منطق فازیIntroductionViolence, the external symbol of misuse of power, misuse and unlawful use of it against public rights, laws and universal freedoms have been integral parts of human society and have occurred in various forms throughout the history. We do not have a society free of violence in the history. As many as 5.3 million people are estimated to be victims of violence worldwide each year. But, despite the fact that violence is a problem in most parts of the world, not all communities have experienced this social reality alike. In some societies, this has become a pervasive issue, while in others, the contradictions in a society have been largely regulated and managed. The purpose of this study is to explain the sociological factors influencing the occurrence of violent crimes at the macro level. In this regard, this paper seeks to understand the causal mechanism of violence by presenting a combined theory. In this study, the author attempts, as far as possible, to provide a model for explaining violence that feeds on the middle and macro analytical levels.
Material & MethodsThe study method was a qualitative comparative approach used from fuzzy logic. One of the advantages of this method is that it provides the necessary and sufficient conditions for the event to occur and the desired outcome and evaluates the effect of the sum of the causal conditions on the outcome variable. In this study, possible combinations of causal conditions were obtained using fuzzy set software (FS / QCA). The study was conducted in 89 countries. The present study was a cross-sectional and covered data for the period 2010-2016. Data on variables composed of multiple reagent combinations obtained from the column of values calculated by factor analysis of a data column for each single agent. The unit and level of analysis in this study were the country and macro, respectively.
Discussion of Results & ConclusionIn this analysis, in explaining the causal explanation of violence, ten main conditions were considered that out of the multiple causal paths, two causal paths were of theoretical and empirical importance. From the results we can conclude that the combination of economic opportunity conditions, relational capital, democracy, government accountability, government efficiency, rule of law, and cultural opportunity have high explanatory power over the outcome. This claim holds true for both positive and negative aspects (i.e., countries where violence is low and countries where violence is high). In other words, countries where violence is low have a combination of these conditions. Also, in countries where there is a high level of violence, these conditions are not present. A country can be safe from the extensive experience of violent crimes that have causal conditions. The important point to note is that economic equality is not necessarily associated with the outcome in all cases. Probably, with an effective structural adjustment, economic inequality does not necessarily lead to violent crimes. Therefore, the result largely depends on the combination of factors. Overall, this study suggests that the role of structural adjustment and the power of government regulation at the macro level should be emphasized. This is prominent in the rule of law, accountability, and government efficiency. Needless to say, these variables are related to the balanced distribution of the opportunities and give the desired outcome. The results of this study can help us to understand the cause of violent crime in macro level. With the results obtained, practitioners can succeed in policymaking in this area with a greater theoretical and empirical knowledge. Undoubtedly, the results of this study provide us with insights that can be programmed to reduce violent crime.
Keywords: violence, Balanced Opportunities, Governance Quality, Social Grammar, Fuzzy Logic -
این پژوهش با هدف تبیین جامعه شناختی عوامل موثر بر جذب گردشگر در صدد آن است که بداند جامعه علاوه بر جاذبه های فرهنگی و طبیعی، باید حائز چه شروطی باشد تا بتواند در جذب گردشگر خارجی موفق باشد. در این راستا، با طرح یک تئوری تلفیقی در سطوح تحلیلی متفاوت و استفاده از منطق فازی، استخراج شرایط لازم و کافی جذب گردشگر خارجی، مدنظر قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که جهانی شدن اقتصادی، سیاسی و اجتماعی و فرهنگی، تضاد درونی، امنیت اجتماعی، رقابت پذیری در زیرساختها، حاکمیت قانون، جذابیت فرهنگی و طبیعی هر یک شرط لازم جذب گردشگر در سطح کلان است. در علیت عطفی و ترکیبی به دلیل پوشش نظری و تجربی بیشتر، تنها یک مسیر علی دارای اهمیت نظری و تجربی تشخیص داده شد. معادله نهایی پژوهش حاضر نشان داد که جهانی شدن اجتماعی و فرهنگی، جهانی شدن سیاسی، امنیت اجتماعی، جذابیت فرهنگی و طبیعی و توان رقابت پذیری در زیرساختها، مجموعا شروط کافی جذب گردشگر در سطح کلان است. این ترکیب به ما نشان داد که کشورهای موفق حائز شروط فوق اند، یعنی این شروط در آنها حضور دارد، اما کشورهایی که در جذب گردشگر موفق نیستند، فاقد این شروط ترکیبی هستند.کلید واژگان: جذب گردشگر خارجی، جهانی شدن، ساختار درونی، کیفیت تعامل اجتماعی، منطق فازیThis research, with the aim of explaining the sociological factors affecting the attraction of tourists, is to know that society must, in addition to cultural and natural attractions, be in a position to be successful in attracting foreign tourists. In this regard, by designing a theory at different analytical levels and using fuzzy logic, the extraction of sufficient and sufficient conditions for attracting foreign tourists was considered. The results showed that economic, political, social and cultural globalization, internal conflict, social security, infrastructure competitiveness, rule of law, cultural and natural attractiveness of each is a prerequisite for attracting tourists to the macro level. In combined causality, due to more theoretical and empirical coverage, only a causal route of theoretical and experimental significance was recognized. The final equation of the present study showed that social and cultural globalization, political globalization, social security, cultural and natural attractiveness, and competitive ability in infrastructure are a combination of sufficient conditions for attracting tourists in macro level. This combination showed us that the successful countries are above the terms, that is, these conditions are present, but countries that are not successful in attracting tourists are not in a position to combine these conditions.Keywords: attraction of foreign tourists, Globalization, internal structure, quality of social interaction, fuzzy logic
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نویسنده در مطالعه پیش رو درصدد است که بداند یک جامعه باید چه شرایطی داشته باشد تا به موازات برابری در آموزش عالی، به توسعه علمی نیز دست یابد. در این زمینه با استفاده از منطق فازی، استخراج شرایط لازم و کافی و شناخت سازوکار علی وقوع نتیجه (توسعه علمی) مدنظر قرار گرفت. به طور کلی پنج مسیر علی با کفایت نظری مقبول به دست آمد؛ اما به دلیل پوشش نظری و تجربی بیشتر، تنها یک مسیر علی دارای اهمیت نظری و تجربی تشخیص داده شد. نتایج مسیر علی منتخب نشان دادند تکثر کنشگر علمی تنها در شرایطی ممکن است سبب توسعه علمی شود که جامعه ازنظر داشتن اقتصادی پویا و مبتنی بر تولید در شرایط مطلوبی باشد و ضمن ادغام متقارن در نظام جهانی از بعد اقتصادی، فرهنگی و اجتماعی، توان رقابت پذیری زیادی در عرصه بین المللی داشته باشد. به عبارت دیگر، نتایج نشان می دهند تکثر کنشگر علمی به طور جداگانه تنها یکی از شروط لازم توسعه علمی است و برای تحقق توسعه علمی باید با عوامل ذکرشده ترکیب شود. ذکر این نکته ضروری است که بین مسیرهای علی، داشتن اقتصادی پویا و مبتنی بر تولید، تنها شرطی بود که در تمام آنها ظاهر شد؛ به طوری که موردی یافت نشد که در نبودن اقتصادی مولد، تکثر کنشگران علمی سبب توسعه علمی شود.کلید واژگان: توسعه علمی، ساختار درونی و بیرونی، تحلیل تطبیقی - کیفی، منطق فازیIntroductionwe are currently witnessing that, in terms of science production, the gap between the North and the South countries is still remaining despite plenty and diversehigher education institutions and their worldwide development across the world, and the science has not appropriately developed in all countries in parallel with the proliferation of actors in the field of science. In other words, many of the studied countries have completed the popularity and democratization stage in higher education, though only a few were able to achieve sustainable production of science alongside accessing higher education. The author in the present study seeked to findthe conditions needed by a society to achieve academic development in parallel to higher education.Materials and methodsIn terms of approach, the present study used a fuzzy logic approach to adopt case-oriented comparative approach. Contrary to the quantitative method which is variable-oriented, the present study was case-oriented, in which the causal relationships of the studied cases were based on the set relations rather than on the co-change among variables. This is a cross-sectional study conducted among 108 countries, which includes the data during1995-2010.
Discussion of Results &ConclusionThe results obtained indicate that in many countries the plurality of scientific activists has not yielded scientific development, which can clearly be seen in the countries where despite the above 80% access to higher education, people suffer the scientific efficiencycrisis. This fact suggests that the plurality of scientific activists is solelyacondition necessary for scientific development and in order to realize scientific development, it must be combined with other factors in order to lay the groundwork for the realization of scientific development. The results also indicated that the combination of variables lead to sufficient conditions for the occurrence of the desired event (scientific development). The plurality of scientific actor as a prerequisite for the scientific development is in combination with dynamic and productive economics, economic and cultural globalization, and competitiveness which lead to scientific development. In the meantime, having a dynamic economy was the only condition that appeared in all of causal routes, such that no case was found in the fuzzy truth table, where in the absence of a dynamic economy, the plurality of scientific actors would lead to scientific development. Therefore, the sum of these conditions in the absence of dynamic economics cannot cause configurational causality for the occurrence of the desired event (scientific development). The important thing is the combination of variables and the creation of sufficient causal combinations that lead to the occurrence of the desired event (scientific development). It can be concluded that in the light of strong interaction between the internal and external structure that paves the way for the scientific development along with the development of higher education.
Exemplary cases for this claim are the countries participating in the research sample. Among the 108 countries studied, only 18 countries were among the countries in which the development of access to higher education has led to an increase in scientific production. This is because in these countries, the economy is dynamic and production-based, and while merging in the global system in various dimensions, enjoyed high competitiveness in the international arena. In the rest of the countries, namely, Iran, first, the development of access to higher education is not proportional to the demand section of the economy, i.e. meeting the needs of one sector was not well addressed by the other sector, indicating that, first, the economy was not dynamic and based on production, and second, the volume and intensity of relations were limited in the global system. Consequently, it had a low economic competitiveness potential in the global arena. That is why the development of higher education was not accompanied by increased scientific production. Therefore, it can be concluded that the policies for the development of access to higher education should be designed in line with economic dynamism, symmetrical communication and integration in the global system in the economic, cultural and social dimensions and the promotion of competitive power in the economic arenaKeywords: Scientific Development, Internal, External Structure, Analysis Of Comparative Qualitative, Fuzzy Approach -
در این مقاله با اتخاذ رویکرد تطبیقی- کیفی مورد محور، به تضاد سیاسی خشونت آمیز در سطح کلان پرداخته شده است. به طور کلی، نوشته حاضر درصدد پاسخ به این سوال است که چرا در برخی از کشورها تضاد کم است و اگر هست، چگونه تنظیم و مدیریت می شود؟ اما کشورهای دیگر با تضادهای مختلفی مواجه بوده، پیامدهای خشونت بار آن را تجربه می کنند؟ چارچوب نظری این مقاله بر پایه تحلیل و تبیین ارتباط متقابل مولفه های اقتصادی، سیاسی، تراکم منابع ارزشمند و چگونگی توزیع آن و کیفیت حاکمیت است. روش شناسی پژوهش نیز بر رهیافت فازی، احصای شرایط لازم و کافی وقوع نتیجه، شناخت ساختار و ساز و کارهای علی مبتنی است. نتایج پژوهش نشان می دهد که نابرابری در ثروت، نابرابری اسمی و اقتصاد مبتنی بر صادرات انرژی شرط لازم و شرط کافی تضاد سیاسی خشونت آمیز نیست، اما نبود دموکراسی، توسعه نیافتگی اقتصادی و نبود کیفیت حاکمیت، هریک به تنهایی شرط لازم و کافی وقوع تضاد سیاسی خشونت آمیز است. همچنین، ترکیب دو شرط توسعه اقتصادی و دموکراسی و نابرابری در ثروت و دموکراسی، شرط کافی تضاد سیاسی خشونت آمیز هستند. نتایج نیز به طور کلی نشان می دهد که تضاد سیاسی خشونت آمیز شامل نابرابری در ثروت، نبود دموکراسی، وجود نابرابری اسمی، نبود توسعه اقتصادی و نبود کیفیت حاکمیت است.
کلید واژگان: تضاد سیاسی خشونت آمیز، روش تطبیقی، کیفی، منطق فازی، نابرابری، دموکراسی، توسعه اقتصادی، کیفیت حاکمیتIntroductionBy accepting this basic fact that human needs are diverse and our resources to satisfy them are limited, we can acknowledge that all communities are prone to conflict and it is, according to Simmel, an integral part of social life. Conflict, together with reconciliation, constitute forms of human community. The question is why in some countries conflict is, regulated, managed and even play an effective role in integration and social order, while in other countries it exists in a variety of mild to severe forms and is experienced through violent measures. Why do violent conflicts arise in some given communities? What are the important accessories of social cooperation, social harmony and conflict management? In the classical and contemporary theories of Marx to Dahrendorf, Collins and Turner, the most important variable in the conflict literature is inequality (Blue and Blue, 1982). According to Bangura, inequality among different social groups is a stronger source of violent conflicts in comparison to inequality between individuals. When inequality in income, wealth and access to services or political power is based on group differences, then mobilization of individuals to perform collective action considered an important issue (Bangura, 2006). As well, Mueller suggests that income inequality lead to political violence. The dissatisfaction of income distribution is a necessary precondition of collective action (Hartman & Way, 1988). Quality of democracy and quality of governance are another effective factor on conflict. As for democracy, all of its indicators have reverse and significant relationships with indicators of conflict. In other words, the more democracy is institutionalized and political rights and civil liberties improve, more reduction comes in the degree of conflict. While there is a direct relationship between inequality and social conflict, the political-economic development is also inversely related to the conflict index (Shekarchy, 1389: 176). In addition, the quality of governance has an influence on conflicts. Accountability, rule of law, control of corruption, government effectiveness, political stability, quality and regulation of affairs are the main dimensions of governance (Ibid, 135). As for the relationship between economic development and political conflict, while previous theories have emphasized that economic development, as measured by an increase in average incomes, reduces political violence, Muller challenged this notion and maintained that economic development leads to political violence (Weede, 1986).Material And MethodsThis study is based on case-oriented comparative approach. Macro variables and macro units are considered. The main purpose is to understand what variable in combination with what variables and in what circumstances lead to political violent conflict. On the other hand, causal relationships are established upon set relationships, not covariation between variables. Using a fuzzy approach, attaining necessary and sufficient conditions for occurrence of the result, and the recognition of structure of causal mechanisms through causal combinations of pathways are other features of this research. In the present study, degree of membership in the set of result (violent political conflict) and set of causal conditions were determined with reference to technical resources, the international indexes and world ranking. Violent political conflict as result and wealth inequality, nominal inequality, quality of governance, democracy and economy based on energy exports and economic development were defined as sets of causal conditions. After determining the threshold of full membership, cut-point and not full membership for causal conditions and result, membership functions, the calibration terms for result variable, causal conditions and finally fuzzy scores were generated by the Fuzzy Software.Countries selected as cases share some similarities and differences. With the exception of some countries such as South Korea, most of the countries have social and cultural diversity, and this provides their similarities. On the other hand, the geographical location (Middle East, Europe, North America, Latin America and Africa), political system (democratic government, semi-democratic and authoritarian) and economic policies indicate their differences. It should be noted that Turkey and Egypt were selected as positive cases because they met the highest level of political violence as it is included in the set result. The US, Canada, Sweden and Denmark were selected as negative cases because these countries do not share the same amount of political conflict as is the case in the positive countries above. However, there is the possibility of occurrence of result among them. Also, for diversification of cases and dispersion of the fuzzy scores a diverse range of countries such as South Korea, Malaysia, South Africa, Brazil and India were included in the study. The index of violent political conflict is defined by estimating the degree of political violence among countries which their score ranged between -2.5 and +2.5. Wealth inequality is measured by Gina coefficient index and nominal inequality is defined by the degree of political and economic discrimination among different ethnic, religious and race groups that inhabit in the each country. Political rights and civil liberties were used for measuring democracy and evaluation of the economic situation was based on the energy export as it is calculated by share of fuel resources export from total exports. GDP per capita was used to calculate the economic development. Composite index of government quality was defined based on criteria such as control of corruption, government efficiency, accountability, rule of law and the quality of settings, all of which ranged between -2.5 and +2.5. This study includes the period of 2009, with except of wealth inequality that is based on Muller's theory (who says the effect of inequality on violent conflict reveals itself in 5 years). Data for democracy was obtained from Polity institute, Index of quality of governance and violent political conflicts were obtained from WGI data set and nominal inequality index was obtained from Marupdate data set. Also index of wealth inequality and economic development were obtained from World Bank data sets.Discussion of Results andConclusionTo sum up, the results of this paper indicate that wealth inequality is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for violent political conflict at the macro level. In other words, the presence of this variable does not influence the occurrence of violent political conflict. Also, in examination of multiple conjectural causation, this variable is not an influence on occurrence of violent political conflict and even its absence in combination with other variables, lead to occurrence of violent political conflict. Nominal inequality itself is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for occurrence of violent political conflict, but in two casual combinations, it leads to violent political conflict. Absence of democracy, economic underdevelopment and government quality individually are a necessary and a sufficient condition for incidence of violent political conflict, namely, the presence of each of these variables can lead to violent political conflict. The combination of the two conditions, economic underdevelopment and absence of democracy, in one the hand and inequality in wealth and absence of democracy on the other hand, are sufficient for the occurrence of violent political conflict. Finally, an economy based on energy exports is neither necessary nor sufficient for violent political conflict. Among the various multiple causal pathways, 4 causation-conjectural paths with regards to combination of theories were selected to improve the coverage ratio. Among above causal pathways, the third and the fourth pathways have relatively more coverage and the total coverage of the two pathways (0.736) is a higher coefficient. Also, the consistency coefficient of fourth path is less than the other paths. Nevertheless, all paths have a theoretical importance. Overall, in the countries studied it was observed that even the absence of wealth inequality, existence of undemocratic regimes and absence of economic development can lead to violent political conflict. Our Forth casual path shows that in countries where economy is not based on energy exports, violent political conflict is a result of existence of democracy and absence of economic development and presence and absence of democracy in various combinations can lead to violent political conflict.Keywords: Violent political conflict, qualitative, comparative method, fuzzy logic, inequality, democracy, economic development, quality of governance
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