seyyed nematollah moosavi

Government supporting policies in the case of strategic crops have been inclined toward consumers. The polices influence farmers cultivation pattern. Nominal Protection Rate is as a measure to investigate the impact of government pricing polices on crop production. The impact of government pricing policy on wheat growers response over 1353-1385 (1974-2006) was studied using Cointegration analysis. Fluctuations of nominal protection rate during the selected period revealed that price polices have not been flexible in proportion to the changes in conditions. Nominal protection rate of less than unity over the study period indicates that not only wheat growers have not been supported but also have paid tax implicitly. The cointegration analysis showed a positive long run relationship between nominal protection rate and cropping area as well as wheat production.

The objective of this research work is to forecast the rice and corn imports using the methods of artificial neural network and ARIMA. The results are then compared. Calculations are based upon the data from the Iranian Customs regarding imports of rice and corn during the period 1360 to 1383. Data for the period 1360-1380 are used for educating the network, and data related to the last three years are used to examine the predictive power. The results show that the method of neural network has a better performance as compared to the process of ARIMA and is able to predict the rice and corn imports with higher accuracy.