تاب آوری اقتصادی

The Russian economy relies heavily on the export of raw materials, making it vulnerable to the political decisions of its client countries. Russia has a history of tensions with the West and periods of cooperation with it have been short-lived. Significant events such as the global economic crisis in 2007-2008 and the political confrontation with the West that led to economic sanctions have had a profound impact on the Russian economy. The most recent manifestation of these differences appeared during the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine in February 2022. Iran, which is heavily dependent on oil exports, has been facing Western sanctions for many years. These sanctions have led to a decline in the government’s income and a decrease in the value of the currency for Iran. This situation has limited access to global financial systems and has posed challenges to the international trade.To counter the impact of Western sanctions, Iran has adopted an anti-sanctions economic model that prioritizes domestic production and investment in infrastructure projects. Iran’s goal is to achieve economic growth by focusing on strengthening the domestic market and reducing reliance on foreign trade amid external pressures. Gaining insights from other countries with similar economic structures that have successfully implemented anti-sanctions models can provide valuable lessons for Iran's efforts. This article examines Russia’s experiences, which can benefit Iran’s efforts and examines appropriate anti-sanctions models for Iran.

Research question: 

What lessons can Iran learn from Russia's economic resistance and its ability to resist Western sanctions?

Research hypothesis: 

In response to Western sanctions, Russia has implemented import substitution and turned to the East. Inspired by China's successful “Made in China-2025” model, this approach could prove effective for Russia. Similarly, Iran needs a well-thought-out long-term strategy to build a robust anti-sanctions economy. Using Russia's experience and adopting the “Made in China-2025” policy can be a valuable plan for Iran's economic development.

Methodology and theoretical framework: 

The research method is qualitative and the data is collected by referring to articles and scientific sources. There are various definitions of economic sanctions and their conceptual frameworks in academic literature. For example, Knobel examines the historical development of theories on economic sanctions over the past century to address questions about their objectives, motivations, effectiveness, and consequences. Anton Flipenko offers two views on the definition of economic sanctions: Realism and Liberalism. In the liberal view, he identifies two approaches - Cosmopolitanism and Authoritarianism.

After the Ukraine crisis, Russia faced sanctions that threatened its economy. However, policies such as “import substitution” and “pivot to the east” helped Russia mitigate the damage. Similar strategies are used around the world to boost economic development and protect against shocks and sanctions. Notable policies include India's “Made in India”, Germany's “Industry 4”, America's “Buy American and hire American”, and China's “Made in China-2025”. According to the economic, political, geographical, and cultural conditions of Russia, China’s approach can serve as a model for overcoming development challenges. This model may benefit Iran's economy, which is facing problems caused by oil dependence and sanctions. Iran and Russia share similarities in their reliance on natural resources like oil and gas, facing government oversight, international sanctions, economic volatility, crises, and the desire to diversify their economies while dealing with bureaucracy and corruption that hinder efficiency.The slowdown in China's economic growth rate in 2015 prompted the government to act to accelerate development. This included the introduction of a series of government programs and schemes. One of these programs, “Made in China-2025”, was unveiled in 2015. It outlined the tasks related to advanced technologies, the development of Chinese brands, and the promotion of service-oriented production over a ten-year period. The plan’s main focus is on innovation, filling gaps in key sectors, prioritizing quality, promoting “green manufacturing”, attracting talented employees, and building Chinese brands. China has emphasized ten key sectors in its construction program, all designed to meet global and domestic needs. By relying on these sectors, China’s goals are to strengthen its economic capacity.Given the above information, “Made in China-2025” program can serve as a model for the Russian economy. In response to economic sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union, Russia has prioritized import substitution and increased support for domestic production and localization of industry. Russia can make significant progress by following the example of China. Furthermore, as Russia's need for new technologies continues to grow, it is considering a shift toward smart and digital products to align with global economic trends. In this research, we concluded that this model can be effective for Iran as well.

Russia has implemented the so-called “turning to the east” and “import substitution” policies to deal with the sanctions. East Asian countries have imposed less economic sanctions against Russia, making this policy a viable solution. Iran, which is rich in oil and under sanctions, can learn from Russian model and prioritize operational experiences in its plans. To overcome economic challenges caused by sanctions, Iran needs to implement import substitution, turn to the east, and design a long-term development policy. China's “Made in China 2025” program can be effective for Iran with the necessary adaptations. One of the strategies to reduce Western sanctions in Iran is to adopt global development models such as China’s “Made in China 2025” plan. This plan focuses on China’s position as a global leader in high-tech industries, robotics, and transportation using new fuels, aircraft manufacturing and more. By following this approach, Iran can create a long-term strategy to counter Western sanctions while adapting it to its own conditions.

Resistive economy pattern to be executed requires the presence of all institutions, ministries, and organizations of the country so that they can make possible the implementation of this pattern by complementary planning. The present research, with the aim of providing appropriate requirements for foreign policy to strengthen the national economy, seeks to answer the main question, what are the foreign policy requirements of Iran in realizing the pattern of the resistive economy? This research tries to use the descriptive-analytical method and using the model of "Political Economy of Foreign Policy Based on the Realization of the Resistive Economy Pattern" to explain strategic plans and requirements of the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran for achieving resistive economics. The method of collecting information is also libraries and documents. The findings of the research show that Iran's foreign policy by activating the coordination role (coordinating other institutions and ministries), opportunity building (the de-securitization of the country, constructive interaction with the countries of the region and the world), and pave the way in both domestic and foreign areas (facilitating trade, facilitating banking exchanges the use of Currency Swap and Block-Chain payment system), can take a step in

economic strength has entered the economic texts of countries for several years and has been discussed by various groups and individuals. A review of global economic experiences and texts shows. Resilience means making the right decision to maintain the performance of a system in the face of external threats and shocks, which is conceptually competitive with a resilient economy. Thus, the spirit that governs most of the policies of the resistance economy can be more appropriately disseminated using the resilience literature. Resilience is well known in various fields including natural sciences, psychology, engineering and organizational and urban crisis management. But recently, economic resilience at the national level, especially after the 2008 financial crisis, has come to the attention of scholars in this field.        The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of economic efficiency on the economic growth of selected countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). For this purpose, the time series data of 2000-2018 and 14 selected member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which include countries (Albania, Cameroon, Chad, Gabon, Indonesia, Iran, Jordan, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Senegal, Uganda) have been examined. Relevant data was collected from the World Bank. Combined economic resilience index used in this research was Morris method Economic resilience indices using components of property rights index, government effectiveness index, financial health index, trade freedom index, investment freedom index, budget deficit ratio index to GDP, the ratio of trade deficit to GDP, misery index, foreign investment index is combined and calculated. In order to be able to analyze the effect of resilience on economic growth, the econometric method of panel data (completely modified least squares method) has been used. First, the time series integration feature is discussed. After testing the root of the panel data unit, the Cao co-test was used for a long-term economic relationship. In the final stage, despite a combination of the modified least squares method was used to estimate the coefficients of the model, and to estimate the hypothesis test model, econometric analysis, Eviews10 econometric software was used. The test results indicate that the components of labor force, fixed capital formation and resilience are effective on the economic growth of Islamic countries and with the increase of these components, economic growth in these countries also increases. According to the results of this research, the following policy proposals are presented: According to the results of the study, there is a positive relationship between resilience, labor and gross fixed capital formation with economic growth. Therefore, the studied countries should put the necessary grounds for increasing human capital skills, capital formation in the country and improving resilience indicators on their agenda. In order to reduce unemployment, skills training, support for entrepreneurship and entrepreneurs and investors, adjustment of bank interest rates according to the conditions of the country's economy, tax exemptions for employers, creation of home-based businesses, development and support of rural jobs should be considered. These will reduce unemployment and also prevent the uncontrolled growth of liquidity and reduce unnecessary government spending, non-printing of money, discipline of monetary and fiscal policies will reduce inflation, which will reduce unemployment and inflation will reduce the misery index and on the other hand, it increases resilience and economic growth. - One of the factors affecting the resilience of the budget deficit is that governments can reduce their budget deficit by issuing bonds, selling property and in the medium term by reducing costs and reforming the tax system to cover the short-term deficit. - Islamic countries can increase resilience by adopting appropriate trade policies such as importing intermediate and basic materials for industries, exporting technical-engineering services, proper marketing, providing a suitable platform for industry competition and increasing their efficiency and creating new destination markets and naturally lead to economic growth. - Foreign investment is also one of the components affecting economic resilience. In order to attract foreign investment, countries must first provide the ground for establishing financial discipline and providing a transparent environment away from any rent to improve business in the country, removing ambiguity in laws and regulations, including labor law and insurance. Other laws related to business, stability in policy-making and long-term strategies and proper planning to build more investor confidence, eliminate unnecessary and complicated bureaucracy, increase human productivity, predict rates currency, a serious fight against corruption and smuggling of goods should be on the agenda in order to make the economy resistant to shocks and cause the economic growth of countries.

A review of countries' experiences shows that some countries are resilient in the face of external risks and shocks and are able to withstand and overcome these shocks at the lowest cost, but in others this resilience is not observed and the degree of vulnerability Countries are high. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the factors affecting economic resilience and vulnerability in each country. In this regard, in the present study, the role of monetary and fiscal policies in the resilience and economic vulnerability of Iran in order to boost production in Iran has been investigated. For this purpose, data from Iran during the period 1361 to 1397 have been used. In order to analyze the data, the GMM instantaneous generalized torque method was used, all analyzes were performed using Eviews10 software. Findings show that the effect of monetary policy on economic resilience, economic vulnerability and net resilience is significant. Based on these findings, it is suggested that the government, by improving the efficiency of the country's monetary and financial system, provide the basis for strengthening the country's resilience, as well as the country's economic policymakers, try to design warning mechanisms to Such inconsistencies in monetary and fiscal policies that make the country more vulnerable, to eliminate inconsistencies at the earliest opportunity.

“Economic Resilience” or national economy strengthening against the economic shocks as a concept that has opened its place in economic literature in recent decades, has been received the attention of Islamic Revolution Leader attention as one of the main dimensions of “Economic Resilience" (that is the decisive cure of national economic woes).Utilizing the economic capacities to reduce the vulnerabilities is a necessity for strengthening the I.R of Iran national economy against the shocks, in order to accelerate its movement towards the national goals, i.e. development and justice.
Seeking the components of resilience concept could assist national economy planners, but since there are useful experiences in the area of strengthening the economy, seeking the components of this concept cannot lonely provide validity enough in accordance with related literature.Thus the author attempts to refine the theoretical components of resilience by reviewing some of the countries experiences against the economic shocks (including deliberate and natural shocks) and also in economic developments, to find the answer to this question: “What are the major components of economic resilience based on other countries experiences?”
The article is a kind of applied-developmental research, and methodically is completely qualitative that accomplished descriptive-analytical.   
Statistical society consists of few number of economic experts which is targeted deliberately and data gathering is done by interviews up to the theoretical saturation. Qualitative analyzing from the literature extracted six major components of economic resilience and after surveying with the expert method based on other countries experiences, these components founded in three fields i.e. a) in the fields of sanctions (macroeconomic stability), b) in the field of crisis (increasing national production), and c) in the field of economic developments (government agility). Finally some suggestions are offered according to the findings.

Achieving sustainable growth is one of the goals of all economies. If economic growth was only a function of the growth of knowledge and technology, then the welfare of mankind was guaranteed, while today in many countries, the growth is still the main concern of the governors. This subject becomes even more important when foreign pressures are a major obstacle to economic growth. Unlike Past, that the warring countries were trying to Military war, today these countries have entered the economic war with their respective countries. Factors such as sanctions are considered as factors causing economic shocks, disturbing the balance of the economy and preventing growth.
In this paper, using the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) method, we examine the role of institutions in economic resilience and the impact of this on rescuing the economy and eliminating the effects of sanctions.
According to the findings of this paper, institutions play a key role in economic resilience. They will help achieve the goals of a resilient economy and achieve growth and increase economic resilience.

The most significant characteristic mentioned for the resistance economy is the resilience of the economy. Economic Resilience is a relatively new concept in economic researches, which needs to be conceptualized and analyzed for indexing and measuring. By applying the content analysis method, this article examines the existing definitions and internal and external researches, and ultimately describes the concept of economic Resilience and its dimensions and components in detail. Accordingly, economic Resilience can be defined as "the capacity or ability of the economy to achieve the desired goals in confronting with existing system uncertainties." Preparation for confrontation, resistance to negative consequences, rapid recovery after shocks and compatibility to new conditions are dimensions of

Resilience is defined as more risk-bearing capacity, rapid return after a certain amount of risk and damage reduction. This study examines resilience of Iranian economy during the years 1996-2013. Resilience Index applies Briguglio and Borman studies to define and measure different components including macroeconomic stability, micro-markets performance, good governance, social development, accuracy of financial policies, monetary policy, effectiveness of administration performance, comprehensive supervision, accuracy of banking system, export diversity, autonomy (freedom) of exports, foreign strength, private debt, net international reserves, and international investment amount. Results indicate that resilience of Iranian economy during the studied period until 2004 had an upward trend, but from 2004 to 2011 had a downward trend. The low resiliency of economy indicates that in the event of an external shock to economy, on the one hand poses a high damage to economy, and on the other hand decelerates economic recovery and its return to normal condition.