تحلیل اطلاعاتی

 Today, one of the basic needs of security organizations is to understand the situations and correctly recognize the issues and challenges ahead and adapt the organization's structure and program to provide a competent and timely response, in order to predict the future and correctly analyze the issues. Analysis is one of the important components in the intelligence cycle, and this component provides intelligence to the analyst on the one hand about the strengths and on the other hand the perceived opportunities and risks in the organization and provides him with the necessary intelligence. Since the lack of knowledge about intelligence analysis causes some inadvertent or intentional errors in a collection, the field of analysis should be able to properly guide organizational activities by using training and experience and prevent them from happening by identifying possible slips. And the criteria considered by the Supreme Leader (Mudzalah al-Aali) should be seriously implemented in the organization, which shows the need for research even more. The purpose of this research is to analyze intelligence and security activities in predicting security crises.

 In this article, which is practical in terms of purpose and descriptive method, by using documentary, library and computer resources, it has been tried to answer questions such as 1- What methods are there for forecasting in conditions of certainty? 2- How can analytical methods be used for forecasting in conditions of certainty? 3- What methods are there for forecasting in conditions of uncertainty? 4- How can analytical methods be used for forecasting in conditions of uncertainty? be answered

 The findings indicate that in the intelligence review and analysis system in the structural dimension including data and information, analyst power and analysis methods and crisis levels; In the process dimension, it includes planning, processing, analysis and utilization and the tasks of analysts, and in the environmental dimension, it includes interactions and communications with internal and external stakeholders, including the media. Based on the results of this research, it should be acknowledged that the use of intelligence analysis by all employees and managers of intelligence organizations to analyze security and non-security phenomena and threats and damages is an inevitable necessity; Without paying attention to scientific and principled analysis, it is not possible to achieve the goals of intelligence organizations, and in this regard, using a standard method in intelligence organizations has a significant effect on their success.

The main purpose of intelligence security analysis is to foresee and warn about future events in order to prevent strategic surprises. The occurrence of surprise causes a time delay in the national security decision-making process and increases the cost of providing security; Therefore, in this research, we have examined the role of intelligence analysis in preventing strategic surprises.

This research is practical from the point of view of the objective and has been compiled with a qualitative approach, and the descriptive-analytical research method has been used in it. The collection of information is based on the study of library sources, documents and the collection of information related to the background and literature of the research has done in one of the intelligence organizations.

The results of this research indicate that a suitable and qualitative intelligence analysis system based on indicators such as having a suitable structure in terms of (organizational structure, qualitative and expert human resources and modern facilities and technologies), future-oriented thinking based on forecasting, qualitative environmental scanning plan (with Determining the system of weak signs and continuous monitoring of indicators) and finally, timely and qualitative warning reports can attack the enemy's general strategies and surprise him while preventing strategic surprises. No element of surprise is more important than objectivity in data analysis and a realistic appreciation of the situation (as it is). The ability to be objective, to set aside previous perceptions about what another country should do or how it should behave, to realistically examine all the evidence as much as possible are all important for analyzing indicators and ultimately issuing a surprise opinion at any stage of the process.

Computational social science is an emerging interdisciplinary approach to the study of social systems. Here we examine why testing the behavior of individuals and groups in social systems from an algorithmic point of view provides new and surprising analytical opportunities for the intelligence society and for the improvement of intelligence analysis methods. By using artificial communities, which are generally called factor-based models, intelligence analysts can improve their intelligence evaluations through the benefits of scientific principles of computer computing. The findings of the research show that factor-based modeling has been significantly used in the security- intelligence literature in such a way that the modeling of socialunrest, crisis, intelligence deception, and war are getting richer day by day

In today's world, the issue of selecting useful information from among the mass of collected news and information and analyzing it correctly, in order to anticipate the future trend of the phenomena under investigation to reach the position of intelligence elites, is considered the main problem of intelligence organizations. Because the speed, complexity and variety of security phenomena have caused intelligence organizations to face surprises and unexpected events that sometimes lead to intelligence failure; Therefore, as the power of analysis increases in these organizations, the possibility of managing interwoven security changes also increases. Therefore, in order to properly use this efficient tool, its process should be optimized in such a way that it responds to the many changes in the world of intelligence and security over time.

In this research, we aim to analyze the potential harms to intelligence analysis in these organizations through semi-structured interviews with experts and elites of the intelligence society. For this purpose, the database method has been used. The results show that the main harms in the field of intelligence analysis are: lack of doctrine and stable policy in the process of intelligence analysis, politicization and misrecognition, lack of warning system, structural inefficiency, weak knowledge and information technology, weak skills of human resources, haste, everyday life, superficiality and not using intelligence assets.

This article tries to evaluate some prediction modles of intelligence agencies on political instability, and explain their failure in predicting recent Middle East developments. Author, in his hypothesis, claims that quantitative prediction modles of intelligence agencies because of reliance on correlation rather than causation, and lack of adequate knowledge of their cases, has a limited capability for prediction. To evaluate his hypothesis, author describes quantitative modle’s prediction of Middle East developments and then compares it with his own qualitative model’s prediction.

about future events to prevent security crisis, failures and surprise. The main claim of author is that adopting futurist approach and designing warning system, can strengthen intelligence organizations role in production of pre-knowledge about events to prevent surprise situations. Warning system must be based on probability determination, and ranking probable. This way, intelligence analysis could approach it’s main and essential functions.