china

In the geopolitical landscape of the 21st century, few nations have ascended as dramatically as China. Over the past few decades, China has transitioned from a largely agrarian economy to a dominant global economic powerhouse, now recognized as the second-largest economy in the world after the United States. This rapid economic development is accompanied by a commensurate rise in political clout, elevating China’s status as a central player in international relations. As a result, China’s role in the global order has undergone a significant transformation, influencing not only its regional neighbors but also the broader international community. This shift has profound implications, particularly for entities like the European Union (EU), which find themselves navigating new and complex dynamics in the face of China’s growing influence.The European Union, as a unique political and economic entity composed of multiple member states, possesses a diverse range of interests and challenges in its relations with China. The EU's approach to China is shaped by its dual objectives on one hand, to harness the economic opportunities presented by a burgeoning Chinese market and, on the other, to address pressing concerns related to human rights violations, security threats, and the broader geopolitical ramifications of China’s actions. The EU has embarked on a nuanced strategy to engage with China, seeking to balance economic cooperation with the need to uphold its values and principles, particularly in response to issues such as civil liberties, environmental standards, and the territorial integrity of nations.This evolving relationship between the EU and China is not without its challenges. The EU must navigate a landscape filled with competing interests, both internally and externally. Member states of the EU have divergent views toward China based on their historical ties, economic dependencies, and individual strategic priorities. This fragmentation poses a significant challenge to forging a cohesive and effective European strategy toward China. Furthermore, the rise of nationalism and populism within several EU member states complicates the landscape, as these political movements often advocate for a more cautious or confrontational stance toward external powers, including China.Parallel to these dynamics is the Islamic Republic of Iran, which finds itself in a unique position due to its strategic geographic location and vast natural resource wealth, particularly in oil and gas. Iran has recognized the potential benefits of fostering closer ties with China within the broader context of its foreign policy. The historical animosities stemming from Western sanctions have led Iran to seek alternative partnerships to bolster its economy and enhance its geopolitical standing. In recent years, Iran has made significant strides in deepening its engagements with China, viewing it as a priority partner capable of counterbalancing Western influence and providing vital economic support.This burgeoning relationship is particularly pronounced in light of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal. Although the deal faced significant challenges, particularly after the United States’ withdrawal in 2018, China emerged as a crucial player in supporting Iran diplomatically and economically. Beijing’s involvement has fueled expectations in Tehran regarding Chinese investment in infrastructure, energy projects, and trade relations. As Iran grapples with the ramifications of international sanctions, the potential for a mutually beneficial partnership with China has become increasingly attractive.However, this deepening relationship is not without its complexities and potential pitfalls. The shifting dynamics of international politics, including the EU's recalibration of its foreign policy toward China, could significantly impact Iran’s strategic calculations. As the EU seeks to reassert its influence in Asia through initiatives like the Global Gateway and its own Indo-Pacific strategy, Iran may face new diplomatic challenges. The EU is likely to weigh its economic interests in China against the value of a principled stance on issues like human rights and regional security, potentially complicating Iran's position.Moreover, the broader geopolitical landscape marked by the U.S.-China rivalry adds another layer of complexity to the EU-Iran-China triangle. As the United States attempts to counter China's growing influence, it may adopt strategies that compel its allies, including EU members, to reassess their relationships with China. This could force Iran to navigate tenuous waters, balancing its partnerships with both China and the EU while remaining vigilant about being caught in the crossfire of great power competition.This multifaceted interaction between the EU, China, and Iran brings us to the core objectives of this research. The first objective is to analyze the key political and economic strategies that the EU employs in its dealings with China. This investigation will focus on the EU's engagements, including trade partnerships, investment agreements, and collaborative initiatives aimed at addressing global challenges such as climate change and public health. Understanding these strategies allows for a comprehensive assessment of how the EU seeks to influence China while safeguarding its interests.The second objective centers on examining the implications of the EU’s China policies on Iran's foreign and economic strategies. This involves scrutinizing how shifts in the EU’s approach toward China could impact Iran’s attempts to leverage its relations with Beijing for economic gains and strategic support in the context of its broader geopolitical ambitions. It is essential to consider how Iran perceives the EU’s stance toward China and whether this perception translates into strategic adjustments in its own foreign policy.Ultimately, this research aims to provide a nuanced understanding of the complex interplay among these three important geopolitical actors. By delving into the evolving relationships between the EU, China, and Iran, we can shed light on the possible future trajectories of their interactions and the impacts on regional and global stability. The goal is to offer insights that not only inform scholars and policymakers but also contribute to a more comprehensive dialogue about the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead in this dynamic triad.

This article examines the US's devolution strategy in the face of China's growing power and Japan's key role in this regard. Japan's security concerns regarding China's intentions, especially in the field of territorial disputes, have made this country play a more security role and cooperate more closely with the United States. In recent years, the distribution of power in the Pacific has experienced significant changes that have forced the United States to reconsider its policies. Considering the security threats from China, the US and Japan have strengthened their military and security cooperation to maintain the balance of power in the region. This article examines the question of how Japan has played a role in the US offshore balance strategy and how to form a coalition to contain China. The findings of the article have shown that due to the increase of unilateral costs in neutralizing China, the United States, relying on the strategy of Buck pass in economic and military dimensions through bilateral or multilateral agreements, economic and military-security alliances with Japan, has been trying to create a collective balance in order to restrain China. These collaborations include updating mutual defense guidelines and developing joint military capabilities. This article explains the position of Japan in the offshore balancing strategy of the United States of America to contain China with a descriptive-analytical method and based on library sources.

Over the past decade, the People''s Republic of China has emerged as one of the most significant trading partners and foreign investors in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. This achievement in a region of increasing geo-strategic and geo-economic importance can be attributed to China''s adoption of diplomatic tactics and a strategic hedging approach. Economic diplomacy, as a key pillar of China''s collaborative diplomacy, has enabled the expansion of China''s regional influence without direct confrontation with the United States while propelling Beijing''s global ascent. This article aims to examine how China''s strategic hedging and economic diplomacy in the MENA region have contributed to the advancement of China''s comprehensive strategic objectives and its regional influence. Furthermore, it explores the lessons that can be drawn from these experiences for Iran. The findings of this research show that China''s economic diplomacy in MENA has been successful as a key pillar of cooperative diplomacy by using hedging behavioral patterns through components such as strategic flexibility; Giving priority to developmental peace, economic entanglement with countries and adoption of hedging strategies instead of establishing balance of power or alliance and coalition will bring valuable lessons for making economic diplomacy efficient in the framework of developmental foreign policy for Iran. The research method employed in this article is qualitative, utilizing a descriptive-analytical approach, and data collection is conducted using library resources.

This research aims to analyze and examine the African policies of this Union with the presence of prominent competitors such as China, based on the strategic and executive policies of the European Union. Considering the influential role of China in global equations and the presence of this country in the African continent, and considering the important issue that the African continent is considered the colonial heritage of Europe in the past, it is relevant to mention the question of what policy the European Union has adopted towards China's influence in the continent of Africa? The hypothesis of the research is based on the fact that due to the importance of Africa in the security strategy of the European Union, this Union finds the presence of China as a great competitor power challenging and tries to create a balance against China's influence. A policy that is examined in the form of balance of threat. The nature of the current research is descriptive-analytical. Data collection method is done based on library and internet sources, and data analysis method is done based on qualitative content analysis of the collected sources. According to the findings of the research, the African strategy of the European Union with the presence of China, under the influence of NATO and the United States of America, has led this Union to adopt a strategy of balance of threat and multilateralism, which can be called the European Union's strategic duality.

China has been able to establish an effective network in the Middle East through the Digital Silk Road. The competition between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates plays a significant role in China's economic and geopolitical strategies. This research examines how the rivalry between these two countries influences China's position as the main actor in the Digital Silk Road and seeks to analyze China's behavioral patterns within this framework. The research question is: How does the competition between Saudi Arabia and the UAE in exploiting the opportunities of China's Digital Silk Road redefine the balance of power in their bilateral relations and in the Gulf region? According to the results, China's behavioral model is primarily economic, based on three key principles: sustainable mutual benefits, inclusivity, and networking. By applying these principles, China has aligned its internal economic needs with the conditions of host countries through the development of advanced technologies such as 5G, artificial intelligence, and digital infrastructure. In this context, the competition between Saudi Arabia and the UAE has created an opportunity for China to more effectively utilize regional capacities to strengthen its position. In addition to economic goals, this competition has allowed China to pursue political objectives, such as reducing the unilateral influence of the United States and promoting multilateralism. As a result, the Digital Silk Road has become a platform for complex economic and political interactions, where China has established its role as the main partner. This rivalry has also had profound effects on shaping a new regional order and enhancing technological cooperation between China and the Gulf countries.

  The relations between China and Iran in the era of globalization have question and focus of this research is what is the security and political strategy of Iran and China, emphasizing the 25-year cooperation document between Iran and China. In order to explain this issue by using the analytical-descriptive method, it can be said that China has chosen two requirements at the macro level of foreign policy) a) strengthening stability in China's security environment (in regional and international spheres) and b) attracting resources international necessary to advance the process of economic development (economic and political resources). In this regard, the Islamic Republic of Iran, as a country with rich oil and gas reserves, can be an estimate of China's needs. Also, in the field of the international system, both the countries of the Islamic Republic of Iran and China have not accepted the order desired by the United States and are trying to change this order. In this framework, these two countries can complement each other and expand their areas of cooperation. In fact, it can be said that the security and political results of the 25-year agreement between Iran and China can be seen in cases such as opposition to the American world order, security independence from America, ignoring US and Western sanctions, support for the multipolar world, China's opposition to The interference of foreign forces in internal affairs and the weakening of Iran's stability and security and regional and global peace were considered.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the newly established Central Asian countries sought to expand their political, economic, and security relations beyond their former Soviet allies. With its regional approach, China managed to turn the challenges in Central Asia into opportunities. China's interests in Central Asia include, preventing terrorist activities in Xinjiang province, accessing new markets for goods and infrastructure companies and building transportation networks to support imports and exports. The importance of Central Asia in China's point of view is expected to increase in the 21st century. This shift is related to the strong technological advancements that are occurring in areas such as the Internet of Things, 3D printing, Industry 4.0, and artificial intelligence. Now China has positioned itself as a great power with a vision to become a leader in science and technology. Thus, Central Asia has a significant potential as a suitable region for China's presence and manufacturing technologies.

Research question: 

With special emphasis on China's strategy in Central Asia, this research seeks to answer the question, what are China's goals in the framework of the strategy of using artificial intelligence in Central Asia?Research hypothesis: Through artificial intelligence technology, China seeks to increase its position and influence in a wide range of economic, political and military fields in Central Asia, such as creating a smart city, establishing a large data center, gaining information superiority, fighting cybercrimes and Smart military cooperation, etc.

Methodology and theoretical framework: 

The research method in the article is a qualitative method with a sample study method as well as a process study with a descriptive-analytical approach. In this research, attention has been paid to the subject of artificial intelligence from the perspective of realism. The most important question facing realists with the advent of artificial intelligence is the question of power and security. It seems that based on the logic of realism, artificial intelligence can increase the concern of governments about their security and sovereignty. Artificial intelligence creates many capabilities in the field of decision-making, simulation, war calculations, etc., which cannot be recorded or measured anywhere. Therefore, from the point of view of realism, it is artificial intelligence that gives power to China in the present era so that it can seek to improve its position as a main player in the world arena. 

Based on these data, China is looking for the development and application of artificial intelligence in various fields in order to improve its position in the international system. In this regard, China has presented one of the most comprehensive strategies in the field of artificial intelligence by combining various elements of technologies. China's AI strategy has set ambitious goals to achieve global leadership by 2025 in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), voice and image recognition and to become a global AI innovation center by 2030. China's AI strategy emphasizes the importance of research and development areas and ethical norms, with special emphasis on the concepts of talent development and national security. According to the existing discussion of artificial intelligence technologies, it has played an important role in strengthening China's interaction with the world, especially in the geography of Central Asia. In fact, artificial intelligence, like everything that a country produces in important economic sectors, services, technology, etc., needs a sales market. A country cannot claim to be in the world arena, but use artificial intelligence, which is a product with very diverse capacities, at the domestic level only for the consumption of domestic people.Therefore, based on the data, Chinese technology companies entered the Central Asian market at the beginning of the 21st century, but their real growth as one of the global powers in the field of information and communication technology and digitalization began in the second decade of this century after Xi Jinping came to power. China is systematically integrating new AI technologies into its economic and technological investments and continues to increase smart weapons exports and military deployments in Central Asia. China's advanced position in artificial intelligence is likely to create significant geopolitical implications in the region through an active digital export policy and increased asymmetric dependence in different regions. Overall, according to the data, China has influence in three sectors of political, economic and military in Central Asia using programs and projects such as the Silk Road and Beijing's programs in the field of artificial intelligence.

China's development and use of artificial intelligence technology plays an important role in the country’s active initiatives and policies in the Central Asian region. In this regard, China is following a comprehensive path to integrate artificial intelligence technologies in various fields. China's artificial intelligence strategy serves to reinforce its growing asymmetric dependence with the countries in the region and hence this fact facilitates the risk of vulnerability against China. China is systematically integrating new AI technologies into its economic and technological investments and continues to increase smart weapons exports and military deployments in Central Asia. By skillfully introducing the project of smart cities, China not only strengthens economic and strategic opportunities but also creates information on the issue of exporting digital authoritarianism to the region. In this sense, the tools of artificial intelligence technology have been applied in China to help and facilitate the asymmetric dependence of this country. Despite criticisms of exporting digital authoritarianism, China continues to sell surveillance technologies and increase its share and influence in Central Asia. Therefore, based on the existing hypothesis, China has actively cooperated with regional countries in the field of security-political issues and maintaining the stability of local regimes as well as the economy based on artificial intelligence. This center was at a favorable level (asymmetrically), but according to China's strategy in the field of artificial intelligence, this trend has continued in a new and more favorable way.

The South China Sea holds strategic importance in U.S. foreign policy in East Asia. China's economic growth and, consequently, the strengthening of its military capabilities—particularly its navy—and the activities of this force in the South China Sea have raised concerns among coastal states and the United States about Beijing’s dominance in the region. This issue has led to Washington’s intervention and extensive presence in East Asia under the pretext of supporting freedom of navigation operations, but in reality, to curb China's rising influence and create a balance against it in the region. Therefore, the main question of this research is: What policy does the U.S. pursue to prevent China's rise in the South China Sea? The article’s hypothesis is that since China's increasing economic and military power, and consequently its expanding regional influence in the South China Sea, is considered a strategic threat to coastal countries and the United States, Washington has sought to counterbalance China's growing power in the region by expanding its presence and forming alliances with coastal states in the South China Sea. This approach, in addition to preventing China’s increasing power in the region, can also curb Beijing’s hegemony and dominance over the waters of East Asia. The research data has been analyzed using a qualitative analysis method. This study is qualitative in nature and based on a descriptive-analytical approach, while information has been collected through library research.

China’s role in the relationship between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia, as well as in the Middle Eastern security order, is a complex and multifaceted issue with significant implications for the geopolitical and security landscape of the region. As a signatory of the JCPOA and a major economic partner of Iran, China seeks to reduce tensions and promote stability in the Middle East through multilateral diplomacy and political mediation. Additionally, by meeting Iran's energy needs and investing in infrastructure projects, China has strengthened its strategic relationship with Tehran. These economic ties enable China to influence Iran’s nuclear policies. China also plays a calming role in the relationship between Tehran and Riyadh by offering economic opportunities to Saudi Arabia, leading to reduced tensions and enhanced regional stability. By emphasizing economic diplomacy and political mediation, China aims to prevent further crises and contribute to stability and security in the region. Consequently, China plays a crucial role in maintaining the Middle Eastern security order.

From 2013 to 2023, the United States has followed a clear path in its reaction to China's Silk Road initiative, gradually shifting from a position of silence and indirect actions to aggressive and confrontational behaviors regarding China's infrastructure initiative. The aim of this article is to explain why the United States’ positions towards China's Silk Road initiative have gradually become more confrontational. In this context, the main question based on the article's descriptive-explanatory method is: why has the U.S. stance towards the initiative become increasingly confrontational in the decade following the announcement of the Silk Road initiative (2013-2023)? The response proposed as a hypothesis to this question is that the increasing confrontational position of the U.S. towards China's Silk Road initiative is a function of the changing nature of relations between the two countries from cooperation to competition. This shift has led to a move from President Obama’s relatively cooperative approach towards the initiative to a competitive stance under President Trump, followed by an escalation of competition during President Biden’s administration. The findings of the article indicate that, given the evolving U.S. approach to the Belt and Road Initiative, there remains potential for increased competition with China in the area of international infrastructure development.

With the gradual decline of the United States of America's dominant position, there is an increasing focus on power redistribution and the reshuffling of roles in international politics. This situation has given rise to a significant conflict between countries advocating for the status quo and revisionist powers such as Russia, China, and Iran. The outcome of this conflict holds direct implications for the future of international relations, encompassing elements such as structures, actors, communication patterns, norms, as well as key trends like balances, institutions, and the global economy. Hence, the primary research question at hand pertains to the approaches undertaken by Russia, China, and Iran in countering the goals and plans of the United States as the hegemonic power in international relations. Specifically, the inquiry seeks to ascertain whether these three revisionist countries have adopted similar approaches and reactions against the dominant power. In order to address these questions, we propose the hypothesis that the behavior patterns of Russia, China, and Iran as revisionist countries, in response to the foreign policy of the hegemonic power, are shaped by their respective advantages in terms of geography-geopolitics, politics, defense-security, culture-civilization, and bilateral relations with the United States. Consequently, their experiences and processes differ significantly.

Soft power is the ability to create compliance through credibility in domestic and foreign public opinion and to exert indirect influence on other global actors, independent of hard power resources such as military capability, geographical limitations, and economic sanctions. This concept is increasingly gaining attention from international actors and analysts. Presenting a national image and brand is one of the main factors in soft power, which is often a side effect or sometimes a direct result of countries' economic diplomacy. The main question is how the relationship between strengthening the dimensions of economic diplomacy—meaning the mutual benefit between foreign policy and the economy of countries—and improving national image, and consequently enhancing their soft power, exists. Therefore, the aim of this research is to explore and analyze the role of economic diplomacy in improving national image and enhancing soft power, focusing on the case of China. Analyzing China's experience in economic diplomacy through a case study method and descriptive-analytical approach shows that this country is one of the successful examples that, through designing and implementing a dynamic and effective form of trade diversification, direct and joint foreign investments prioritizing developing countries and infrastructure and technology sectors, strengthening tourism, providing developmental aid, managing migration flows, and creating regional and international economic initiatives, has significantly transformed its soft power status while also gaining direct economic and political benefits. This approach and its results from China's experience can be extensively utilized in formulating strategies, policies, and necessary actions for the Islamic Republic of Iran.

With regard to the foreign policy of looking to the East, competing with the West and communicating with third world and developing countries, Iran is always interested in participating and being a member of regional and extra-regional organizations that the political system is not pessimistic about and that do not conflict with the principles of the Islamic Revolution. An opportunity is welcome. Using the theories of realism about the role, position and purpose of establishing international institutions and organizations, the present essay analyzes the structure, nature and position of the BRICS extra-regional group and analyzes Iran's membership in the BRICS group. The question of the current research is, what effects and consequences will Iran's membership in the BRICS group have for this country? According to the realist point of view, it is evident that BRICS is a balancing tool for China against American hegemony, but the Islamic Republic of Iran, by being a member of BRICS and accompanying the hegemony of China (and Russia) as a desirable partner against the dominant hegemony (America) while accompanying China in confronting the threat of American hegemony and the creation of a multipolar system, there are other benefits such as the development of relations with the South from East Asia to Africa and South America, the development of trade and regional exchanges (South), the development of civil and economic infrastructures , attracting foreign capital, energy exchanges and oil sales, lifting and neutralizing sanctions, and finally turning Abran into an international highway will benefit.

The Islamic State of Khorasan Province is one of the branches of ISIS that is not only still active three years after its establishment, but is currently expanding its regional influence. The capture of Kabul by the Taliban in 1400, along with the withdrawal of the United States and the collapse of the Afghan government, created a new opportunity for ISIS Khorasan to regroup and resume its violent attacks. The terrorist acts that ISIS has so far registered in its name have also provoked a reaction from the Taliban, to the extent that this group has given ISIS the nickname "Khavarej". ISIS Khorasan seeks to disrupt the existing order in the region through violent methods. Given the geographical proximity of Afghanistan to the Iran and the goals of ISIS Khorasan and its regional and extra-regional supporters, this article seeks to explain and identify this group, examine the current status and strategy of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

After two decades of a U.S.-led global order, the resurgence of great power competition has emerged as the defining characteristic of the international system in the 21st century. In this new era of great power rivalry, the multipolar dynamics among the U.S., China, and Russia, along with the U.S.-China duality, hold particular significance. China, currently the second-largest economy and the largest energy consumer, is poised to become the world's largest economy by 2030. China's rise as a global power has presented challenges to the U.S. across economic, military, technological, and ideological dimensions. Given the ongoing competition between the two nations, the central question of this article is what trajectory China and the U.S. have followed in their bilateral relations to reach a level of competition and confrontation in the technological sphere, and what are the primary dimensions of this rivalry? Based on the hypothesis and findings of the research, it can be stated that the strategic goal of the U.S. was to integrate China into the international system under its hegemony, grounded in the belief that supporting China's ascent and incorporating it into a Western-centric international order would foster economic liberalization and extend to China's political system. The objective of this research is to provide an overview of the confrontation between the United States and China in the technological-commercial domain. According to the research findings, competition between the U.S. and China is likely to persist over the next decade, and given the complexity of the relations between these two countries, it may lead to limited collusions and cooperation on challenges such as climate change, ultimately shaping a new international order.

The nuclear negotiations of the Islamic Republic of Iran following the Islamic Revolution have become one of the most significant aspects of Iran's foreign policy. Consequently, an understanding of the strategies employed by the various countries involved in these negotiations is of great importance to Iran's decision-makers, enabling them to pursue national interests in nuclear negotiations and other comparable cases within Iran's foreign policy. China has been an international mediator in the nuclear negotiations with Iran since 2006. Despite its involvement in the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the West, China's contradictory stance towards Iran's nuclear programme has rendered the rationale behind this country's actions opaque. The principal aim of this research is to examine the manner in which the official stance of the People's Republic of China towards Iran's nuclear programme was formulated during the so-called 5+1 negotiations with Iran. The findings of the study, which was based on Copenhagen school theory, indicate that despite China's efforts to de-securitise Iran's nuclear programme, the "speeches acts" of Beijing's leaders were predicated on the securitisation of Iran's nuclear activities. In order to test this hypothesis, this research employed a qualitative content analysis methodology and evaluated the speech acts of statements made by senior Chinese negotiators.

              
Since the late 1970s, China has steadily expanded its power and influence, now reaching beyond East Asia and even the broader Asian continent. As a country’s power increases, its role and position in global and regional relations inevitably follow. In this context, the People’s Republic of China is widely regarded as an emerging power striving to solidify its regional position while also enhancing its influence in Southwest Asia. China’s engagement in Southwest Asia has transcended economic and trade activities, evolving into a more multifaceted and complex presence. This region holds strategic importance for China due to its geostrategic position, serving as a critical bridge connecting Central Asia, Europe, and Africa. Leveraging a variety of tools and strategies, China is working to integrate and strengthen its strategic presence in Southwest Asia in line with its national interests. In light of China’s rivalry with the U.S. and the implications of its regional presence for the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran, it becomes essential to analyze the dimensions, mechanisms, and effects of China’s activities in Southwest Asia. Such an examination can provide policymakers with valuable insights to better anticipate future developments and identify both opportunities and threats arising from China’s regional presence. In this respect, the present study aimed to explore the impact of China’s strategic presence in Southwest Asia on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Literature Review:

Many studies address China’s presence and strategy, with some specifically focusing on the Southwest Asia region. These studies explore various aspects of China’s policies, strategies, goals, and requirements for establishing its presence in the region. A review of the existing literature reveals a wealth of related research, much of which examines diverse aspects of China’s activities in Southwest Asia. However, some of these studies are historically outdated and fail to account for the evolution of China’s strategy since 2013, particularly following the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). These developments mark a significant shift in China’s regional approach, necessitating the revision and adjustment of certain variables in previous studies. Despite their limitations, these earlier studies are still valuable for shedding light on specific aspects of China’s strategic presence. More recent studies in the field overlap with the current research to varying degrees. Nevertheless, the key innovation and distinguishing feature of the present research lies in its effort to develop and outline possible scenarios of China’s strategic presence in the region. Furthermore, it aimed to assess the impact of these scenarios on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The research onion model, developed by Saunders et al. (2019), is a prominent model for selecting research methodologies in the social sciences and humanities. Melnikovas (2018) adapted the research onion model to align with the field of future studies. The current study relied on Melnikovas’ adaptation of the research onion model. As an exploratory research, the present study used a mixed methods research design with a medium-term time horizon of 10 years. The data was collected through a combination of documentary and field research.

This research aimed to examine the impact of China’s strategic presence in Southwest Asia on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Relying on the interviews and documentary research, the analysis identified 67 driving forces influencing China’s future presence in the region, along with 7 major global-regional trends. Based on these driving forces and trends, a questionnaire was developed and then evaluated by 35 experts. Their validity was confirmed using the Lawshe coefficient for 55 driving forces and trends, while Cronbach’s alpha was used to confirm their reliability. By calculating the geometric mean of 55 driving forces and trends, the significance threshold was determined to be 3.57, while the uncertainty threshold was set at 2.69. Based on the importance–uncertainty method proposed by Martilla and James, 22 driving forces and trends surpassed these thresholds. In the next phase, the Friedman test was used to rank and refine the driving forces, resulting in the selection of 7 key driving forces. The qualitative aspects of these forces were then analyzed, and a cross-impact analysis matrix questionnaire was designed and distributed to 10 experts. The responses were processed using ScenarioWizard software, generating a balanced cross-impact matrix with 4 scenarios, all of which exhibited zero inconsistency. Finally, each scenario was delineated, detailed, and evaluated.Among the four scenarios, the first is the most desirable, the second is moderate and possible, the third is possible, and the fourth represents the worst scenario for the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Each scenario carries distinct implications for Iran’s national security. The first scenario, called the Rise of the Dragon, suggests that China’s transit role, investments, and military–security cooperation with Iran will significantly enhance Iran’s national security. The second scenario, namely the Dragon’s Dream, portrays China’s balanced policy to expand interactions with all countries, which could adequately provide Iran’s national security. The most likely scenario, however, indicates limited Chinese investments in the Islamic Republic of Iran. In this scenario, Iran’s role as a corridor will be minimal, functioning primarily as a complement to other countries. Finally, the fourth scenario (i.e., the Dragon in the Cage) would have the most detrimental impact on Iran’s national security. Under this scenario, regional countries would dominate in areas such as investment, energy imports, and military–security cooperation with China. Iran–China relations would be restricted to energy exports and minimal goods imports.

In the 10-year horizon, China’s priorities are expected to focus on several key areas. In the economic and technological infrastructure domain, China will work to enhance its influence and investments. In the military–security sphere, China will be prioritize increasing its influence and protecting its assets and national interests. In the social realm, China aims to maintain a positive image and the Chinese discourse, while in the political sphere, it will seek stability and neutrality. These priorities are supposed to have impact on China’s relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran and with the broader region.

The economic growth of China in the last few decades and the emergence of this power in the international scene has caused this country to focus on the Persian Gulf region in order to access numerous sources of energy, oil and gas, and to try to improve its relations. strengthen with the countries of this region. Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic of Iran as a regional power with a special geopolitical and geostrategic position and having rich energy resources is of great importance in Chinese diplomacy. Despite this, the relations between these two countries have not always had a constant trend and many variables have played a role in shaping it. The main question of the current article is: why despite the deep convergence between the policies of China and Iran, there are also divergences between these two countries in relation to the Persian Gulf? The hypothesis that is raised following the mentioned question is that China's effort in the Persian Gulf to establish a soft balance through the strategic cover of the United States and also the desire of this country to improve relations with the countries of this region in order to diversify its needs to Energy has caused China to adopt a cautious policy towards Iran, which is in tension with the West and the international system, as well as the countries of the region. According to the findings of the research, this cautious policy has led to the divergence between China and Iran.

Theoretical predictions, international procedures and empirical proofs and evidences reveal a deep and fast transition in international system wherein emerging global powers and regional complexes are challenging the classic structure of power. The convergence of China-Iran powers can be explained in this framework. Inadequate perception of this relation in national and international levels and the overemphasis of previous studies on the variables of United States as well as some methodological and epistemological deficiencies has prevented a compressive analysis of this relation. Thus, the current research has employed role theory in international relations and used a mixed method of phenomenographic and analysis of crossed-impacts through elite and software validation to bring about a valid interpretation of Chinese approach toward Iran. It was revealed that the Beijing’s approach is consisted of two structural (containing 10 variables) and ideational (containing 5 variables) dimensions that result in creation of “Great Power-Middle Power” and “Assisting Stakeholder” roles. It was also found that the system of the relationship between the two countries is stable, without risk variables and difficult to change.

This study examines the evolution of protest dynamics in China from 1989 to 2022. It hypothesizes that the characteristics of protests and government responses have systematically changed over time, reflecting broader socio-political changes. The theory of protest logic and social movement frameworks were used to analyze these changes. Using a descriptive-analytical approach, historical and contemporary protest events in China were examined, focusing on causal factors, types of protest, and government responses. It is stated that protests have shifted from broader political-economic issues to more specific grievances, and government responses have changed accordingly. The results confirmed a significant change in protest dynamics, with early protests often leading to systematic political-economic concerns, while recent events, especially in 2022, focused on specific issues such as infrastructure shortages, corruption, and COVID-19 policies. The government's approach has evolved from initial repressive tactics to more subtle protest management strategies, especially for widespread dissent. These findings contribute to understanding collective action in authoritarian contexts, highlighting the complex interplay between social grievances, government responses, and historical conditions. This study demonstrates that protest diversity and evolution in China depend on the type of protest, historical context, and government approach, emphasizing the need for context-specific analysis of collective action dynamics.