future research

Trust is known as one of the important and fundamental capitals in a society, which is the basis for cooperation and cooperation between the members of the society and the government and the people. Public trust as one of the important aspects of trust is essential for the success and progress of governments, strengthening public trust and increasing it in the society will lead to reducing conflicts and increasing various types of participation in order to improve the functioning of the governance system. Identifying the key drivers affecting public trust in the system of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is the main goal of this research, can provide the basis for planning and forecasting in the field of public trust for the country's policy-making system.In fact, the research seeks to answer the question, what are the key drivers that shape the future of public trust in the Islamic Republic of Iran? The approach of the research is exploratory and by using the future research method based on kinematics and the use of Mic Mac software, it analyzed the data and identified the key kinematics. The research findings from the software show that the drivers of accountability and transparency, the efficiency of the political system, social justice, and class divisions have the greatest impact on the future of public trust in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

 The present study was written to investigate the future of the courts in the Iranian judicial system. In fact, it should be said that the field of law is one of the most important fields of humanities that has the most homogeneity and connection with future research. In this study, we seek to explain what the future courts will be like in the Iranian legal system? And to understand this issue and how to do it, we will use the methods of futures research. In the present study, a closed questionnaire was used and thematically, the scope of this research includes the topics of structure, how to plan and legislate, how to provide resources and access and use. New information technologies in future courts in the Iranian judicial system. The leading research is of the applied research type and has considered the time domain from December 1397 to December 1399. The obtained data were analyzed through a questionnaire using qualitative content analysis method. The results showed that the priority of all the same indicators of the questionnaire are significantly different in terms of effectiveness and the order of priority of each of the dimensions tested by the statistical community is process reform dimension, regulatory dimension, structural and organizational dimension, innovation and technology dimension, manpower and motivational dimension. Welfare is the legislative dimension and the scientific and research dimension.

Environmental developments, such as increasing air temperature, drought, dust, pandemics, loss of underground water tables, etc., have definite consequences in the social, political, and security fields, and require the cooperation of governments, institutions, and groups at the regional level and International. This article aims to identify future environmental trends at the level of the international system; Draw possible environmental futures at the international level until 2030 and show the future scenarios of the Islamic Republic of Iran in this field. The research question is, what are the possible environmental futures at the level of the international system until 2030? The research results show that the rapid growth of green technologies, changing population patterns, the continuation of pandemics, the continuation of climate changes, and increased competition of governments due to limited resources will be the possible futures of the international system in the environmental field until 2030. The results of the research also show that the Islamic Republic of Iran will face serious challenges in the face of global environmental crises, and political and economic limitations will also be woven into these challenges. While most countries will turn to green technology in the face of these challenges, Iran's restrictions on the use of green technology will be an important driver until 2030.  The research method is future research with the technique of extrapolation of future-making trends using the "cross-impact trends" matrix.The results of this research are:1)  The inevitable future of governments and societies until 2030 to deal with environmental threats will be investing and benefiting from green technologies (conditional favorable scenario)Until 2030, governments will have no escape from moving towards green technologies to deal with climate change. Due to the consensus that exists in the world about moving towards this type of technology, this scenario is also for the Islamic Republic of Iran, both in the domestic arena and to deal with environmental challenges such as drought, air and sea pollution, and in the regional arena to deal with It will be useful and effective with challenges such as micro dust and in the global arena to deal with global challenges such as rising air temperature and the spread of panda The only challenge will be to create harmony between national, regional and international interests.2) Changing demographic patterns (aging, migration) will continue until 2030. (conditionally tolerable scenario) Changing demographic patterns at the global level (aging and immigration) in terms of the national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the recommendations of the theory of neoliberal institutionalism do not pose much danger to the Islamic Republic of Iran and is considered a more tolerable scenario for Iran because, firstly, the rate of aging of the country's population in comparison It is less accelerated than other countries and Iran's population will still be young until 2030 and this trend can be changed by planning 3)Changing population patterns (urbanization growth) will continue until 2030. (unfavorable scenario)The growth of urbanization in the world will continue until 2030, and the current trends show that this unfavorable global scenario also exists in Iran, so that the rate of urbanization in Iran has intensified. If the limited resources are not managed, this will be an unfavorable scenario for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran is in the semi-arid region of the Middle East. In the current situation, the country is facing a crisis in water resources. The result of the growth of the urban population is the increase in water and food consumption of the country, and in the situation of shortage of these resources, the country may face security crises4)  Until 2030, pandemics will continue as a global threat. (Undesirable scenario) The spread of pandemics like Corona is considered an unfavorable scenario for the Islamic Republic of Iran, because in terms of the country's national interests, pandemics are a threat that, firstly, may endanger the lives of thousands of people, secondly, take a lot of resources, and thirdly, if production units are closed, services, etc. have extensive political and security consequences for the country. Theoretically, the country will need drugs and vaccines to deal with these pandemics, and since most of the big pharmaceutical companies are in Europe and America, it will be very difficult to cooperate under sanctions 5)  Until 2030, climate changes (increasing temperature, drought, etc.) will be strengthened. (adverse scenario)According to all estimates, climate changes such as temperature rise and drought will intensify by 2030, and this is an unfavorable scenario for Iran. According to the UN forecast, Iran will also face a chronic water shortage from 2025. The last water year in Iran was the driest in the past 52 years, and the effects of this drought clearly show themselves in the flow of water, and storage of dams, lakes, and wetlands of the country.6)  By 2030, resource limitations will intensify the competition of governments in the environmental field (unfavorable scenario) Since the Islamic Republic of Iran is in a hot and semi-arid region, continuing environmental trends such as increasing air temperature, drought, and lack of water resources is an unfavorable scenario for Iran. Among the 17 countries that have the first rank in the world regarding water crisis, 12 countries are in the Middle East and North Africa. The water crisis in Iran is an important threat to national security and therefore an important challenge for the country's foreign policy.

Environmental and physical elements form the core of livability, and their inadequacy threatens both the quality of life and the future sustainability of coming generations. This research aims to define the environmental and physical variables of livability in the deteriorated areas of Sari with a futures-oriented approach to analyze the relationships among these variables within the urban system from a forward-looking perspective. The research methodology is descriptive-analytical and applied in terms of its objectives. Data were collected through both documentary and field methods. The statistical population consisted of 50 urban planning experts selected purposively. Data analysis was performed using SPSS for exploratory factor analysis and MICMAC for crossimpact analysis. The findings indicate that the degree of matrix completion is 60.88%, reflecting a relatively high impact of the factors on one another. The most influential variables, according to experts, are green spaces and park establishment, each with a score of 1385 and appropriate temperature with a score of 1235. The variable of the absence of strong winds scored 936, the distribution of shrubs and plants scored 898, regular waste collection scored 861, proper sewage disposal scored 823, and surface water drainage scored 711, ranking 4th to 8th respectively in terms of impact according to experts. Analysis of the dispersion of criteria also revealed system instability. To achieve stability and an optimal level of livability in deteriorated areas, specific interactions between urban subsystems in environmental and physical elements are essential.

The national security of any country is a function of the set of internal developments and movements of the security environment of that country. The issue of the Kurds and the events related to them is one of the most important political issues in the Middle East. The main problem of the researcher in this research is that what are the most effective scenarios of the security consequences of the Iraqi Kurdistan region on the western border regions of the country for a period of 5 years. Accordingly, the main goal of this research is to design the scenarios of the security consequences of the Iraqi Kurdistan region on the western border regions. It is the country.
. The result of the evaluation of the eight designed scenarios shows that Kurdistan, on the part of the world powers, raises the tension between the countries with Kurdish minority and the integration between the Kurdish minority in the neighboring countries, the best situation for declaring and implementing the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan and for the security of the west of the country is dangerous and the scenario that is opposite to this scenario It is possible (non-recognition by world powers, alignment of countries with Kurdish minority and differences among Kurds in the region) is the best scenario that indicates the lack of independence of Kurds.

Yoval Noah Harari is one of the most influential figures of the last century, whose horrific predictions of the future of mankind have received much attention. Given the capabilities of technology and artificial intelligence, he warns against the hacking of humans, widespread unemployment and the emergence of superhumans, and so on.The purpose of writing this article is to evaluate Harari's claims, considering the importance of futures research topics and its impact on how human beings move towards the future, in order to determine the place of futures studies in recognizing and constructing the human future.The method taken in this article is mainly analytical-critical. In this way, based on the rational principles and rules of futurology, Haray's claims have been examined in terms of structure and basis.The findings of this article show that Harari, unlike other futurists, has made predictions and, knowing the role of prophecy in human subsequent actions, has made his statements unprovable and invalid. His arguments also suffer from an internal incompatibility; Because the human self is called a myth and at the same time warns against being hacked and ignored! Exaggerating the future of technology and the possibility of reducing human truth to data is another problem.The result of these discussions will be that Harari's futures research has no prior scientific value and, given the many drawbacks it faces, can not be a basis for those interested in futures research.

 The issue of Turkish-Israel relations is a significant topic in regional studies. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1949, bilateral relations between Turkey and Israel have witnessed substantial growth and development in various fields. As two powerful players in the Middle East and the Mediterranean, the developments in the Mediterranean region have a crucial impact on their future relations. This research aims to investigate how the developments in the Mediterranean Sea will affect the future of Turkish-Israeli relations. The research hypothesis suggests that although Ankara and Tel Aviv share common interests and threats in the Mediterranean, these factors may limit their cooperation in the future. To evaluate the impact of Mediterranean developments on their relationship, the study employs the explanatory capacities of regional security theory, which identifies the influencing components as the main factors of a security complex. Additionally, this research uses future studies to examine the connection between Turkish-Israeli relations and the developments in the Mediterranean Sea. The results indicate that based on their shared interests and threats, Turkey and Israel seek to establish cooperative relations.

The writer in the present survey is after the probable opportunities recognition and challenges facing the Islamic Republic of Iran in two areas of the international system and energy security. The writer has considered energy security as the background of the formation process of the upcoming wars by the framework of the futurology concept and the emphasis of this survey is on the analysis of energy area and scenario-making in this field. The question of this essay is: what challenges and opportunities will the security trends of the world make for the Islamic Republic of Iran by the end of the year 2025? This essay hypothesizes that the security processes consider the future wars imaginable in the background of change in the international system and competition over the energy area. The methodology in this essay is descriptive-analytical using the library tool.

The Covid-19 epidemic crisis, which has spread around the world since the winter of 1398, has affected all areas of collective and individual human life. The present article examines the effects of this crisis on the future of domestic politics and political stability in Iran and attempts to answer the question "What are the possible scenarios related to the Corona crisis and the state of political stability in Iran?". To answer this question, scenario writing technique in the field of futures studies has been used. In terms of the nature of the present study, it is exploratory. The data used are of two types, quantitative and qualitative, which have been collected using documentary analysis of published domestic and foreign statistics.The important conclusion of the present study is that the possible scenarios related to the corona crisis and the situation of political stability in Iran include four possible and probable scenarios of "successful passage of the crisis, continuation of the consequences of the crisis, great revolt and great surprise". Unique in the future situation puts political stability in Iran.

China's growing presence in the West Asian region has led to a number of debates in academia and policy-making. China is now a global strategic threat to US interests. China's growing presence in the region has led to the question of how much the policy of the United States and China will change and what future or futures can be drawn for the strategic presence of China and the United States in the region? According to this research hypothesis, the strategic position of the region requires that despite the strategic rivalry between China and the United States in the world, they will work together in the West Asian region. The research method is descriptive-analytical and oversees the future research approach. According to the research findings, the presence of the United States and China in the West Asian region can be considered in the form of four "possible, believable, probable and desirable" futures. Given the need of these two supra-regional governments for the West Asian region, it can be said that the desired future is cooperation and the presence of both governments in the region is predictable.

The pace of development of digital technologies is such that media organizations are constantly amazed, and this has made the momentum in the media industry complex and intense. Therefore, in order to properly deal with developments, media managers need to have a picture of the possibilities ahead in order to be able to avoid surprises by making preconceived decisions. Today, without scenarios or clear images of possible futures, one can not plan. In this research, we have identified the factors affecting the future of the international news network and described its scenarios over a ten-year horizon.

Scenario writing was done by Schwartz "GBN" method and purposive sampling method. Fourteen experts participated in the study, which was sufficient based on the principle of theoretical saturation.

The two factors of the degree of professionalism of news network management and the degree of political trust were the key uncertainties of the research.

In this study, 4 scenarios were described: flying at the peak, flying with weak wings in the blue sky, broken in the storm, open wings and powerful but in the storm and blind. And based on expert panel recommendations; The following topics were described: planning to promote political trust, managing the digitalization process, adapting to the network paradigm, planning for the realization of the learning organization, and investing in the production of short news videos.

The present study seeks to research the future and draw a vision for new approaches that are independent of physical presence, in the processes of design and participation, based on the abilities of children in the use of digital social networks.

Documentary and library methods were used to identify the common tools of participation, their characteristics and the way they are used, and to examine the opinions of experts about the role of cyberspace in the lives of children in the present century. A descriptive survey method was used to study and analyze the experience of children using social networks in the pandemic era. The data collection tool is a researcher-made questionnaire and the sample size is 384 children and 384 parents according to Cochran's formula. Inferential statistics and SPSS25 software and one-sample t-test were used to analyze the data and validate the findings.

Digital mass communication leads to the development of the effectiveness of traditional methods of participation because children are able to use social networks, communicate with software faster than adults, interested in commenting and participating in group discussions based on virtual networks and the use of image language and the use of these networks is not limited to the pandemic era.

Mapping the future of partnerships with children based on the use of "online participation platforms", while opening new perspectives in the fields of partnership, design, programming and artificial intelligence, has led to improving the efficiency of participatory processes. It also provides a platform for children to make more comprehensive and thoughtful statements about issues related to them.

The increasing complexity of today's societies is placing more and more of a burden on developmental and political stability, and with developing countries and civil institutions this seems to particularly stand out.Whether they are civil or state-made civil institutions, if they have a layout that can serve all social and political capacities, they bring with them a political order that gradually progresses to sustainable development, reduces the likelihood of political deterioration, enhances the country's political power and will at best increase it to the optimal level.The current arrangement of civil society organizations in Iran is such that, they are not only not in a position to provide the optimal level of political power for the Islamic Republic, but, on the contrary, due to their weaknesses in utilizing all social capacities, they have placed unabsorbed sectors on the path of the declining political power of the Islamic Republic, thus creating serious obstacles to political development. However, the question which arises is, what role will the layout of civil society play in optimizing the political power of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the future?The present study investigates the layout of civil society organizations and their trends. This is done using the scripting method of scenario writing and by determining the necessary indicators to find answers to the above question, to identify the possible scenarios and to achieve the optimal scenario. The propellants were identified by analyzing the effects of the variables using the Mac software.The results of this study show that among all the scenarios, the scenario, where civil society organizations have the highest degree of benevolence, influence, and have the most for-profit purposes, is the one most likely to increase, create and optimize political power.

The issue of the future of Islam and Muslims in Western Europe is an important issue in scientific and political circles. This issue has taken on special security and political dimensions due to the emergence of terrorist groups and operations in the Middle East and Western European countries. In this study, according to the methods of futurology and scenario writing, possible and probable scenarios for the future of Islam and Muslims in Europe have been proposed. Four optimistic scenarios: coexistence and cultural diversity and freedom of action of Muslims; Pessimistic scenario: de-Islamization and secularization of Islam; the miracle scenario: the domination of Islam over Europe and the catastrophe scenario: the mental and practical isolation of Muslims and the increase of tensions are considered as possible scenarios and then each of them has been evaluated and validated. The most likely prediction is a combination of different approaches, especially the integration and promotion of individual Islam and the continuation of Islamophobia may be predicted as current for the future of Islam and Muslims in Western Europe.

The study of the components affecting the power of a country shows the effect of geopolitical factors on the position of that country in the regional power system. Accordingly, the Islamic Republic of Iran has an important place in the power system of West Asia. In addition to the need to pay attention to geopolitical advantages, the promotion of Iran's position in the regional power system requires the identification of the geopolitical risks that it will face. The purpose of this study is to research the geopolitical risks of the Islamic Republic of Iran in West Asia on the horizon of 1404 with a futuristic approach and using the trend analysis method. According to the research findings, increasing tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, increasing US-Iranian confrontation, intensifying religious and ethnic rivalries, Zionist expansionist state, reducing convergence in the region, promoting Iranophobia and Shiismophoia, increasing the power of Salafi fundamentalists, increasing arms race, crisis spread in the sources, the rise of failed governments and the interventionism of supra-regional powers are among the most important geopolitical risks affecting the future of Iran's position in West Asia on the horizon of 1404.

"Islamic ummah" is one of the basic concepts in the Islamic political system that Islamic thinkers have taken special care to explain and explain its nature and what and generally consider reaching a single Islamic ummah as one of their ideals. This concept has been one of the strategic concepts in the discourse of the Islamic Revolution and the political thought of its founders, which has been recognized and widely republished. In this article, by modeling the strategic analysis model, by examining the historical course of the Islamic Ummah, first the current situation is determined and then the strategies to strengthen Islamic unity and achieve the desired future, which is the formation of the Islamic Ummah in the Islamic world, based The thoughts of the leaders of the Islamic Revolution should be presented. The main finding of the research focuses on the current situation in the Islamic world, the existence of divisions and differences as the biggest obstacle to the formation of the Islamic Ummah; On the contrary, in the discourse of the Islamic Revolution, the strategies for recovering the Islamic Ummah in the minds of the leaders of the Revolution have been considered by presenting operational strategies that have been addressed in the present study. The type of research in this article is fundamental and an attempt has been made to provide scientific answers to the questions posed by using descriptive-analytical method and using strategic analysis tools.

"Science orientation" is one of the fundamental features of the Islamic school. Islam's view of science and learning was that Muslims, in addition to acquiring Islamic sciences in their geographical location throughout history, traveled to any land, did not ignore learning the sciences of that land and did not show indifference to the knowledge of others. As a result, from the end of the eighth century to the end of the twelfth century AD, for at least four centuries, the Islamic world became the forerunner of science and knowledge throughout the universe. Unfortunately, from the thirteenth century onwards, this steering was gradually transferred to the Western world. The present study seeks to improve the component of Muslim science and technology through Iran's scientific and technological interactions with Islamic countries and based on a comprehensive strategic plan to help the Islamic world return to power in the distant future. The main research question is: "What is the strategic and comprehensive strategic plan of Iran's science and technology interactions with Islamic countries in order to empower Muslims and increase the power of the Islamic world in the long run?" The research hypothesis is that "it seems that Iran's science and technology interactions with Islamic countries based on a strategic and comprehensive method will empower Muslims and increase the power of the Islamic world in the long run."   Drawing a method for empowering Muslim science and technology using a strategic model of balanced approach and based on the proposed perspective Proposed vision of increasing the power of Muslim science and technology in interaction with Iran on the horizon of 1414 A.H simultaneously with the second step of the revolution The researcher's suggestion in all indicators related to education, research, technology and innovation (except spiritual and educational indicators), is to obtain the level of science and technology indicators with a global average in the target Islamic countries. As a result, the strategic goals of the vision in the horizon of 1414 A.H of the Islamic world and at the same time with the second stage of the revolution in the country, are proposed as follows:    Strategic goals in the 15-year vision of empowering Muslims in the field of science and technology (1414 A.H. equal to 2035 AD), coordinated Islam countries (five cases) and the target community (two cases) are: Achieving scientific-educational indicators at a level above the global average; Achieving scientific-research indicators at a level equivalent to the global average; Achieving scientific-technological indicators at the level of 80% of the global average; Achieving scientific-innovation indicators at the level of 60% of the global average; Able to apply science and technology in the scene of individual and social life; Acquiring socio-economic status at a suitable level with the global average; Development and promotion of self-confidence in the Islamic and revolutionary movement; Independent in the political-cultural fields in the style of the Islamic Republic of Iran; Comprehensive progress in the level and dignity of the leading countries of the Islamic world; Having a constructive and effective interaction in regional relations and Islamic international relations. 8.2 The proposed method based on the balanced scorecard approach as a template  Considering the importance of the strategy map, it seems that designing a model and compiling a method for science and technology in Islamic countries will be one of the most important management techniques to support the Muslim empowerment mission. Now with regard to ecology and other topics in the article, collecting the necessary data and information and analyzing them, the proposed method is presented as a template for achieving the vision of hypothesis, and it is obvious that this map can be updated with a brief fieldwork.