regional security complex

Between 2020 and 2024, the South Caucasus experienced numerous geopolitical events that significantly changed the status quo in the region. Components of the South Caucasus security complex, such as social structure, polarity, the nature of actors, anarchy and borders can be explained within the framework of sub-regional security complex centered around Russia prior to the Ukrainian developments of 2022. However, with the changes that occurred between 2022 and 2024, the concept of sub-regional security complex has lost its explanatory power for application in the South Caucasus region. Therefore, the primary goal and subject of this research is to identify the type of security complex that governs the region and to explain how the components of the South Caucasus security complex are affected by new regional and international developments.

Research question:

 How has the South Caucasus security complex changed under the influence of developments between 2020 and 2024?Research hypothesis: Given these developments, components of the security complex – such as borders, the social structure, type of polarity and states influenced by the Second Nagorno-Karabakh and a result of the Ukrainan War. Ultimately, the region is witnessing a shift in trends, from moderate anarchy to increasing anarchy and greater regional autonomy.Methodology and theoretical framework: This study seeks to assess the components of the south Caucasus security complex using a quantitative approach and interpretive structural modeling (ISM). Buzan's original definition of a security complex is as follows: a group of states whose primary security concerns are so interconnected that their national security cannot realistically be considered in isolation from one another. The basic structure of a regional security complex consists of four variables. 1. Borders that separate the security complex from its neighbors. 2. Anarchic structure, meaning that a regional security complex comprises two or more autonomous units. 3. Polarity, which refers to the distribution of power among the units. 4. Social structure, which includes patterns of friendship and enmity among the units. Depending on the configuration of a security complex, three types of evolutionary processes can be observed in each complex: 1. Maintaining the status quo means not making fundamental changes to the fundamental structure of the complex. 2. Internal transformation, indicating that changes in the fundamental structure occur within the existing external boundaries. This could include changes in the structure of anarchy (due to regional integration), changes in polarity (due to divergence, mergers, conquest, low growth rates, etc.) or prevailing patterns of friendship and hostility (due to ideological transitions, wars, leadership changes, etc.). 3. External transformation refers to the opening or closing of external borders, changing membership in the regional security complex, and most likely changing the fundamental structure in other ways.

From 2020 to 2024, the border of South Caucasus security complex has witnessed internal and external developements. Internally, the full restoration of Azerbaijan's territorial sovereignty after the war led to the country's increased border expansion with its two neighbors, Iran and Armenia. Externally, the South Caucasus has transformed from an arena of competition primarily between Russia and the West into a new geopolitical space in which where more than six powers are competing for influence. This shift challenged Russia's monopoly position and the status quo that had dominated the region for 200 years. The decline of Russia’s geopolitical power created a closer connection between the South Caucasus and the greater Middle East and Middle Eastern countries see the South Caucasus as a natural extension of their territories. Regarding anarchic Structure of the region, the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, which resulted in a ceasefire agreement, emphasized the Russian military presence as peacekeepers, the restoration of Soviet-era routes under Russia control and the return of refugees. Russia's military presence in Karabakh somewhat moderated the turbulent nature of the region. However, normalization talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan failed to materialize after Azerbaijan fully restored sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh in a one-day war in 2023. By 2024, Russia withdrew its military forces from Nagorno-Karabakh following bilateral agreements with Azerbaijan. This withdrawal, coupled with Russia's planned withdrawal from the border areas of Armenia and Iran in 2025, is expected to exacerbate the turbulent situation in the region. In terms of Polarity, Armenia’s military and economic capacity is incomparable to Azerbaijan's, whose advantage is evident in defense budgets and economic growth. Before the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, the regional polarity was balanced between the three countries due to alliances such as Armenia's military partnership with Russia and its membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). However, the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War shifted the regional polarity to a unipolar structure centered on Russia, which lasted until 2022. By 2024, several factors, including Russia’s military withdrawal from Nagorno-Karabakh, the suspension of Armenia’s membership in CSTO and Armenia’s reduction in reliance on Russian arms imports (from 90% to 10%), significantly weakened Russia's central role in the region. Regarding Social Structure, between 2020 and 2024, the Hobbesian nature of hostility in the region has decreased compared to previous years. Historically, the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis and the conflict in Abkhazia and South Ossetia have played a key role in shaping patterns of hostility and friendship in the South Caucasus. After 2020, the processes of resolving these conflicts entered certain stages in the transformation of the social structure of the region.

Regional and international developments between 2020 and 2024—such as the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, the Russo-UkrainianWar, the restoration of Azerbaijani political sovereignty in Khankendi in 2023, the Georgian parliamentary elections in 2024, and Armenia's shift from idealistic to realist southern policies—had a significant impact on the policies of the South Caucasus. These events have led to transformations across all structural components of the regional security order. In this context: borders have experienced both internal changes and external developements due to the increasing inter-connectedness of developments in the South Caucasus with West Asia. The social structure has undergone a fundamental change, shifting from a Hobbesian framework of hostility to a Kantian framework driven by changes in Armenian pragmatic politics. The polarity has shifted from a sub-regional security complex after the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War to a standard regional structure influenced by the Ukraine War. Anarchy has moved from moderation to escalation, leading to greater regional autonomy. Overall, geo-economic dynamics—such as energy transit routes, trade corridors and transportation networks—have increasingly become the focal point of competition between regional and international powers, surpassing geopolitical factors in importance. The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War reinforced this trend, while the Ukraine War and Russia's efforts to replace Western partners with Eastern ones for economic stability further strengthened it.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the South Caucasus region has faced many problems in the security, economic and political fields. In addition to these problems that have affected the region for more than two decades, the spread of security challenges in the surrounding areas, including the strong presence of Salafist and Takfiri groups in the Middle East and its effects on the security complex of the South Caucasus, on the volume of problems The governments of this complex have increased security. In this regard, the main question of this article is raised as follows: What effect has the expansion of Salafi and Takfiri movements in the peripheral environment of the South Caucasus had on the regional security complex of the South Caucasus?The hypothesis of the present article is that "the spread of Salafi and Takfiri currents based on the theory of the security complex of Bari Buzan and Weaver in the peripheral environment of the regional security complex of the South Caucasus with measures such as recruiting members from among the citizens of the South Caucasus states and terrorist actions, and The insecurity of the platform for economic activities has caused serious security, political and economic as well as social challenges for governments and people in this region.

The purpose of this article is to examine the international challenges of establishing a national government in Afghanistan, which in the last two decades (2001-2021), under the influence of the competition of regional countries (such as Pakistan and India, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Turkey, Central Asian countries) and trans-regional powers (such as America, Russia, China and the European Union) have been formed and consolidated. In response to the fundamental question of this article, what are the international challenges of establishing a national government in Afghanistan? It is hypothesized that geopolitical rivalries, the Durand conflict and the ISIS group in Afghanistan are among the most important international challenges to the creation of a national government in Afghanistan, and regional factors (such as Pakistan and India, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Turkey, Central Asian countries) and extra-regional (such as America, Russia, China and European Union) have been affected. Competitions, enmities, supremacy and security dynamics of regional countries and great powers in the geography of Afghanistan have caused this country to face international challenges in creating a national and comprehensive government. Cannot be the founder of the national government in Afghanistan. The mentioned problem has been investigated using the theoretical framework of "Regional Security Complex Theory" and analytical descriptive method. The obtained results indicate that the geopolitical competition, the Durand conflict and the activities of the ISIS group in Afghanistan, with the influence of regional and extra-regional variables, will challenge this country in the period of twenty years (2001-2021) Has drawn.

IntroductionThe Caspian Sea region due to the presence of huge energy reserves and being located at the point of connection between the two continents of Asia and Europe; It becomes more important day by day. The interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is one of the important members of this new region, are highly dependent on the pattern governing the region and its security issues.MethodologyBy using the literature of modern regionalism and the framework of regional security complexes and a two-step exploratory hybrid research method, the indicators of this theory are first evaluated in the studied region and then using the concept of dependence. Security interdependence, in two dimensions of security conflict (negative aspect of security interdependence) and security cooperation (positive aspect of security interdependence), issues for developing research tools (questionnaire) are counted. Then, in the quantitative stage of the research, the questionnaires are evaluated by a statistical sample of 49 experts in this field.ConclusionAny military cooperation of regional countries with extra-regional powers can lead the region to a security conflict. it is necessary to pay attention to the fact that the pursuit of these issues by the newly independent countries is usually the result of the implementation of extensive exercises and the creation of new bases by the Russian Federation in the Caspian Sea region. Therefore, it can be said that if this increasing trend continues in the coming years, the movement of the Caspian Sea region towards controversial patterns is inevitable.

The role of non-state armed actors is one of the major concerns that the West Asian region has been dealing with since 2011, following the events referred to as the Islamic Awakening Arab Spring—actors, some of whom have been aligned with and others who have opposed Iran. Actors aligned with Iran, such as Hezbollah of Lebanon, Hamas, and the Popular Mobilization Forces (Al-Hashd al-Shaabi), along with the Houthis in Yemen, have been instrumental in shaping the new regional order. This article explores the impact of non-state actors aligned with Iran on the Environmental Security of the Western Asia region after 2011, based on Barry Buzan's concept of Environmental Security. It does so using a qualitative methodology, a descriptive-analytical approach. The research hypothesizes that Iran-aligned non-state actors have impacted the objective-geographical and mental-psychological components of the Environmental Security of the Western Asia region. The research findings indicate that non-state actors aligned with Iran concerning Western Asia's Environmental Security, in the objective dimension, are responsible for undermining government sovereignty and the state-oriented regional order, increasing Iran's power in West Asia, acting as a regional deterrent for Iran, escalating rivalry among states in the region, defining new geopolitical boundaries, in addition to generating and intensifying proxy conflicts in West Asia. Furthermore, it pertains to the mental-psychological dimension they caused: the rise of Iran's soft power, the formation of new Normative Models, the rise of political Islam of the Islamic Revolution, and the emphasis on the retreat of extra-regional state

Security issues in the Middle East entered a new environment with the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, one of the manifestations of which can be seen in the prominence of the competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia for regional leadership. This competition itself led to the greater complexity of security issues and the occurrence of new security crises, which is important for the security of the region, as well as international peace and security. In this article we will examine the effect of the competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia as the two countries claiming leadership in the Middle East on the security of this region after the September 11 in the framework of the regional security complex theory. The main question is, what effect has the competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia had on the developments of the Middle East security complex? In response to this question, the hypothesis is emphasized that the competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia has increased insecurity in the Middle East and grew the intervention of world powers in the region, which resulted in the formation of domain security crises, and instability. In collecting research data, we use first- and second-hand library sources. In data analysis, using the historical and comparative methods, we describe and analyze the impact of the competition between these two countries on the developments in the security complex of the Middle East after the September 11.
The theory of regional security complex was proposed for the first time by Barry Buzan and Ole Weaver in Regions and Powers book. They believe that while the national and international levels of analysis do not provide a complete guide for the analysis of issues related to regions, therefore, the existence of an intermediate level of analysis will be suitable for this purpose. This intermediate level of analysis tries filling the gap between the national and the international system levels. Based on the definition, a security complex is a group of states whose main security concerns are so interdependent that their national security cannot reasonably be separated from each other. In other words, the regional security complex is mainly formed by patterns of friendship and enmity. These patterns are socially based on historical factors and common cultures of the region. Based on this, the security of any country does not rely only on itself, and one cannot rely only on the national level in security analysis. On the other hand, the global level is also very general and is not sufficient for understanding of national security of countries. Therefore, the regional level is introduced as the appropriate level of analysis in which global and national security influence each other, and the security of individual units and the intervention process of global powers can only be understood through the understanding of regional security developments.
Based on the principles of the regional security complex theory, in the Middle East region, various factors have shaped the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia at different levels, the most important of which are: oil and energy supply, conflict over regional supremacy, identity subnational and transnational factors such as Shia and Sunni identities and ethnic identities such as Persian, Arab, etc., foreign powers that have influenced or covered security developments in the Middle East, various ideologies such as Revolutionary Shiite Islam in Iran and Sunni Wahhabi Islam in Saudi Arabia. The sum of these factors has made Iran known as a country in favor of creating a stable and local security system suited to the needs of the region, while Saudi Arabia, accepting the presence of foreign powers including the United States, has always considered the security of the region dependent on their support.
To examine the impact of the competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia on the developments of the Middle East security complex, we first examined the existing theories and perspectives on the security of the Middle East, and after examining and criticizing those, we developed and applied the theory of the regional security complex to explain the developments in the region. This theory deals with the analysis of security at four different levels: internal, regional, interregional and global, and for this reason, it has more importance and explanatory power for the systematic review and analysis of security issues in the Middle East. Examining the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia based on the components and variables of this theory clearly shows that since 2001, competition and even hostility between the two countries has increased and the balance of power in the Middle East has undergone fundamental changes. These changes have caused an increase in the intervention of world powers, including the United States, the European Union, China, and Russia, in the development of the region. The examination of the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia at the four internal, regional, interregional, and global levels shows that not only the security of the Middle East is not ensured, but also under the influence of the competition between these two countries, the competition between the effective world powers have increased in the region.
In such a situation, to control and manage crises and reduce insecurity in the region, above all, a collective will and mutual understanding must be formed between the leaders and decision-makers of the Middle East countries, especially Iran and Saudi Arabia. The leaders of Iran and Saudi Arabia, as the main players, should put aside their differences and take steps toward convergence and synergy. These actors must, first of all, understand that they have a common destiny. They should reduce their differences through comprehensive dialogue and diplomacy at all micro and macro levels, to achieve mutual understanding of common interests and greater awareness of the benefits of common security. To change the situation, it seems that the countries of the region should focus more on mutual economic interests and collective security than on differences or even shared identities, and they should accept that all actors should have their roles and place in the power and security equations of the region. Naturally, emphasizing establishing and strengthening economic and commercial relations, along with paying attention to cultural and identity commonalities, can become the basis for strengthening political and even security relations. If such conditions are fulfilled, it is obvious that there is no need for the presence and direct intervention of foreign powers in the affairs of the region, and this also helps to solve more issues and changes the security complex of the Middle East from a divergent, insecure and unstable state to a convergent, safe and stable region, not only for the countries of the region but also for the whole world.

One of the most important current challenges in the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran is to discover the nature, contexts, and consequences of Saudi-Zionist relations. According to Bari Bozan's point of view and in the framework of the regional security complex theory, in addition to international, regional, and interregional variables, identifying Saudi-Zionist subnational level variables influencing these relations is of particular importance. The question of the study, therefore, runs as: what are the expected variables at the transnational level? In response to the question, the hypothesis is raised that social, religious, ethnic divisions as well as the political, economic, security-military, and geopolitical weaknesses within the Saudi and Zionist societies are the basis of this convergence. The findings of this research, while confirming the aforementioned hypothesis, show that at the sub-national level of Saudi Arabia, the consequences of the existence of the two holy shrines, Wahhabism, tyranny, and governance disputes; and at the sub-national level of the Zionist regime, the existence of the security state, political-territorial geography, identity crisis, social gaps and the effect of economic weakness on limiting the military power, more than other internal factors, have an effect on the convergence of the two regimes.

In recent years, India has tried to introduce itself as a world power and therefore has made various efforts to accept its position under this title to other actors. From the perspective of the theory of regional security complex, whenever a regional power projects its power to another security complex, it is actually trying to act as a great power. India, as a country that is part of the security complex of South Asia, has tried to project its power to the security complex of the Persian Gulf and therefore applies its own strategy in communicating with the countries of this region. According to the theory of regional security complex, In this situation and by merging two security sets, a super set is created. The main question of this research was, what effect will India's presence in the Persian Gulf have on the regional security complex of the Persian Gulf? Based on this question, the research hypothesis states that India's presence in the Persian Gulf leads to the creation of a super-complex due to the integration of the two security complexes of the Persian Gulf and South Asia. This research, using the content analysis method, examined the documents and statements contained in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of India and analyzed them based on the theory of the regional security complex. The findings of the research showed that India's presence in the security complex of the Persian Gulf is a result of the change in the paradigm of India's foreign policy during the Modi era and has led to the creation of a super-complex.

The surrounding environment of the region has a fluid and changing nature, and thus the national security of each of the states in the Middle East depends on understanding the dynamics and reliability of the regional security environment. In recent years, especially after the Arab Spring, the Middle East has seen rapid changes and emerging trends that have influenced regional security, patterns of coalition building, and regional security architecture. The speed, depth and scope of the transformation in the security environment of the Middle East are to such an extent that identifying the effective drivers and understanding the upcoming trends has become one of the significant research topics in political and international studies. Accordingly, the main objectives of the present study are to identify and analyze national, regional, and international drivers of change within the theoretical framework of Buzan's regional security complex (RSC), and find appropriate answers to the following questions: a) What are the drivers of transformation in the security environment of the Middle East; and b) How do these developments influence the future of Iran's security?Remarkable transformation is taking place at three national, regional and international levels. Thus, in the research hypothesis, the authors postulate that the drivers of change in the security environment of the Middle East have a significant impact on Iran’s security. The drivers include the fundamental forces which influence the security environment of the Middle East, and in turn have implications for Iran's security. The drivers which influence regional and national security include the growth of unstable governments, the multiplicity and severity  of regional security challenges which had been triggering dangerous competitions between adversaries and rivals (e.g., the escalation of tension in Iran-Saudi relations), the success and failures of coalition building in the Israel-Arab axis with repercussions for Iran's security policies and strategic stability, the redefinition of the roles and interests of the Great Powers in the region which had been leading to the intensification of their rivalries and changes in  their military-security doctrines. Trend analysis of qualitative data is used to identify and explain key developments in the Middle East and to understand what the future will look like for Iran’s security. Trends are gradual forces, factors or patterns that cause changes in the desired phenomenon. Macro trends are important and dominant trends that have significant impact on the transformation of the phenomenon in question. Pishrān refers to the major forces that shape the future and consists of several processes that cause changes in the desired phenomenon.The authors organize their analyses and discussions in four parts. In the first section, the research objectives, main concepts and research method are described. In the second part, the concepts of regional security complex (RSC), extraterritorial security environment and regional security are explained. Moreover, they review recent work in security studies which examine the question of how socio-economic and political developments will ultimately affect regional and national security. The third part is dedicated to explaining the national, regional and international drivers and trends that have the ability to transform Iran's security environment. In the final part, they discuss the transformation of the security environment, particularly the transformation in the patterns of regional order and the change in the patterns of confrontation and cooperation among regional states. They also draw attention to the security threats arising from this transformation that affect the security of the region. The findings of the research indicate that the transformation of the regional security system with its new order will lead to the intensification of security threats for Iran. The results might be helpful for the policymakers who are enthusiastic about the task of developing forward-looking strategies to confront the current and future security threats.

The Axis of Resistance is a title that in recent years has been able to introduce itself as one of the main transnational actors influencing the political-security developments in the Middle East. As a member of this axis, Iraq has an important role. Various issues in Iraq's internal environment affect the country's role in the axis of resistance, and understanding them will lead to a better understanding of the country's position in the Middle East security zone. On the other hand, there is complex and wide-ranging competitions by regional and supra-regional actors in Iraq, which adds to the importance of this country as one of the foreign policy priorities of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In order to be on the axis of resistance, Iraq must reduce its internal problems. Problems such as unemployment, corruption, dependence on oil budgets and lack of infrastructure for development. Lack of attention to internal problems makes Iraq unable to resist US and Western pressures. As a result, Iraq can`t act as a member of the axis of resistance to its takes. The closer the factors of Iraq's convergence with the axis of resistance, the less likely it is to join the American front, and the more the factors of Iraq's divergence from the axis of resistance, the more likely it is to separate from the axis of resistance. The main question of this research can be stated as follows: What are the advantages and barriers of the Iraqi internal environment that affect the position of this country in the axis of resistance? This research is not a hypothesis because of its practical nature. The method of data collection in this research is the use of the existing literature and unstructured elite interviews. The Regional Security Complex Theory has also been used as a theoretical framework focusing on patterns of friendship/enmity.

Relations between Saudi Arabia and Syria have experienced many ups and downs since the two countries entered the realm of national governments. The presence of Riyadh and Damascus in rival camps during the Cold War paved the way for divergence in bilateral relations. With the rise of the Ba'ath party in Syria in 1963, relations between the two sides became strained. with the beginning of the Syrian crisis, Riyadh became one of the main supporters of proxy war and the policy of regime change. However, with the acceleration of the political settlement of the crisis and the beginning of the period of economic reconstruction, the Saudis, like other countries in West Asia and North Africa, have taken the path of normalizing relations with Damascus. The main question of the present article is Why has the situation of divergence been the dominant strain in the relations between Saudi Arabia and Syria ? In this regard, using the propositions of the regional security complex theory, the hypothesis is tested that the different roles of Riyadh and Damascus in the West Asian security complex, including their distinct position on the issue of the israel-Palestinian conflict, the transformation of Riyadh against The axis of resistance and Shiite geopolitic and the lack of cultural, religious, racial, divergence have become the dominant aspects of bilateral relations. The present article is descriptive and analytical and the required information is collected by library method and referring to valid internet sources.

The exit of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in August 2021 was made by the government of Joe Biden, which was preceded by the Doha Agreement on February 29, 2020 between Donald Trump and the Taliban with the official title of "Peace Agreement to Afghanistan." The end of the 20-years US military presence in Afghanistan has challenged international relations researchers with the crucial question of what consequences the military pullout of the United States and its allies will have for other actors active in the Middle East, Central and West Asia? And what aspects of their national interests will be affected? Amongst these players is the Russian Federation, that Afghanistan's proximity to Central Asia, as Moscow's traditional sphere of influence, could lead to new crises, including the expansion of Islamic fundamentalism to the national interests of this country. Therefore, the main question of this present paper is that what are the negative consequences of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan on Russia's national interests in Central Asia? The main assumption of this paper is that the central Asian region should be considered the center of the world crisis in the future as the most prone region for the growth of Islamic fundamentalism, which will destroy the region's security dynamics and confront Russia to new security threats. The authors try to prove their hypothesis in this paper by applying Regional security complex theory.

The Persian Gulf is strategically important,, which has caused supra-regional actors to be active intervening in this system throughout history, and regional order to be influenced by these actors' policies.Due to the decline of the US role in the regionthe Zionist regime has attempted to play a more effective role in the region. The GCC on the other hand, have taken steps to strengthen ties with the Zionist regime in order to assure their security in the wake of the US pullout, attempting to align their security interests with those of Western countries.The normalization and the presence of the Zionist regime in the region have resulted in changes in the security arrangements in the Persian Gulf, and the main question of this study is how the normalization of Zionist regime relations with the UAE and Bahrain has influenced the transition of security arrangements in the Persian Gulf? The study investigates the above issue using a descriptive-analytical method and library resources. The findings of this study indicate that, following the normalization of relations between the Zionist regime and the countries of the UAE and Bahrain, the security arrangements of the Persian Gulf have been influenced and It is in a state of transition. This transformation has taken the form of shifting friendship-enmity patterns between Iran, the GCC, and the Zionist regime, as well as shifting its polarity with the convergence of the two poles of the GCC and the Zionist regime and the divergence of Iran and the GCC.

The Persian Gulf region is considered one of the most important regions of the world due to its geopolitical position and rich energy reserves. The developments and dynamics of this important and vital region are influenced by various factors and can be analyzed and explained from various angles. One of the most important topics in the Persian Gulf is the security category, which has been the subject of many studies. This research intends to deal with the effect of the normalization agreement on the patterns of friendship and hostility in the Persian Gulf region by using the regional security complex theory. The findings of the research show that the normalization agreement through the creation of two hostile and competing blocs, as well as a greater concentration of crisis- and tension-causing factors, can cause more instability in the security complex of the Persian Gulf and intensify the pattern of hostile relations in this region. In addition, this agreement can secure other factors such as territorial disputes or the energy category and add to the crisis-causing factors in this regional security complex. The research method in this research is descriptive and analytical and the data collection method is documentary and library.

Given the relative and covert reconciliation of Arab-Israeli relations in the past and finally the revelation of this relationship in 2020, it seems that the change in the process of normalization of Arab-Israeli relations will change the regional security equations. Accordingly, the present study seeks to investigate the consequences of the normalization of Arab-Israeli relations on Iran's security environment.

The method used is descriptive-analytical, which seeks to answer the question by applying the theory of regional security complex, what effect has the development of Arab-Israeli relations had on the security environment of the Islamic Republic of Iran?

The findings show that the development of Arab-Israeli relations and their goals of normalizing relations have major consequences for Iran's regional security environment, such as the disruption of the balance of power structure in the region and the formation of a new regional threat balance process, the non-formation of a stable regime and stable security forces in the region, the growth of radical and extremist groups in the region, the development and expansion of the US presence and influence, and the formation of a post-ISIS order in the absence of Iran.

In addition to creating tangible changes in the security equations of the region structurally, specifically with regard to the goals of mutual development of relations, the process of normalization of Arab-Israeli relations will have new consequences on the security environment of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The governments of the Middle East Regional Security complex owe much of their legitimacy to religion of Islam. Therefore, they are either claiming the Islamic government or they are trying to show their commitment to Islam in some way. The first case result of this factor will be a common and prominent identity in the solidarity and closeness of these countries. But with a little tolerance, it can be said that often Conflicts and violence in the Middle East - albeit ostensibly - are rooted in religious conflicts, especially religious ones.This paper seeks to examine, in a case study, the distinction between the true and potential status of religious communities in the Middle East and its current status in the context of the geocultural challenge of religions and sects in the path to regional peace and security. The question in this study is how, despite their scope of acceptance, does Islam not have the ability to prevent violence and conflict and, consequently, to establish peace and stability through the enjoyment of shared beliefs among its followers? In this regard, Copenhagen's security-oriented and regionalist approach has been used to better explain the approach.The research hypothesis is that the domination of the centralized state and the weakness and deviations of transnational religious groups have led to the instrumental and corresponding use of the Middle Eastern identity-oriented states of religious and religious identity to gain legitimacy and make others illegitimate.

Research findings have shown that U.S strategy toward western Asia has undergone fundamental changes in recent years. Creating ISIS emerging phenomenon, and providing it with financial, intelligent, military and logistic support is a manifestation of this new strategy. Literature review shows that ISIS and its relation with U.S interests is investigated thoroughly, however, after physical eradication of ISIS by regional powers and axis of resistance, no systematic research is conducted on the U.S strategy in post-ISIS world. Thus, the current research is an attempt to employ the principles of regional security complex theory and adopt documentary research method to investigate resistance power elements and virtual caliphate of U.S in post-ISIS period comparatively. It was revealed that after ISIS, resistance structural development has overpowered U.S coalition making. Also, the pragmatic nature of the resistance has strategically defeated American military kinetic actions. In addition to that, the U.S attempts aimed at recovering the virtual caliphate of ISIS through media and propaganda is blocked by realities of Shiite crescent. This research has implications for researcher in politics, regional studies, and theoretical and military strategists.

Security interdependence amonggovernmental actors has increased following the evolutions that occurred ininternational system structure, globalization phenomenon, and change in thenature of threats and threatening actors. Although security interdependence isfelt at different levels and regions, it is more evident in the adjacentgeographical units forming regional security complexes. In this regard, regionalsecurity complexes are more talented and need to establish stable and interconnectedsecurity communities. Based on reviewing security complexes in different regions,it has been not attained in some areas despite the capacities and bases offorming security communities and severe need to their formation. The NortheastAsian security complex as a strategic sub-system in East Asia is under theseconditions. The present study sought to evaluate why the Pluralististic securitycommunity is unformed in Northeast Asia by utilizing the components ofsecurity complex theory. Thus, the research hypothesis is raised based on twocomponents of semantic (the pattern of friendship and hostility and culture)and material (regional competitions of two main actors, proximity andterritorial disputes, and economy) as regional variables, and the presence ofAmerica in the security equations of the region as trans-regional one isconsidered as the most important reasons for preventing from establishing commonsecurity regime in this region. The present study was conducted througha descriptive approach by using library resources.

The Syrian crisis began in 2011 and its internationalization was due to the presence of regional and supra-regional actors, the occurrence of numerous internal violence, the displacement of thousands of Syrian citizens, and the destruction of its economic infrastructure and the inability of this government to Meeting the basic needs of its citizens; The heavy shadow of the fragility of the government of this land in the Middle East has increased and has affected the security of many regional governments, including Iran. Therefore, this research, with a descriptive-analytical research method, seeks to answer the question of what security threats has the fragility of the Syrian government posed to Iran? The temporary answer is that Iran's perception of the Syrian government's fragility has posed threats to it, both domestically and regionally; These threats include the threat to territorial integrity and national cohesion, the threat to its geopolitical and geostrategic depth, and the threat to the ideological balance in the region. The findings of this study, using the theory of defensive neorealism, are based on the fact that Iran, in addition to uniting with supra-regional powers such as Russia to strengthen the axis of resistance as its proxy arm, to prevent the Syrian government from overflowing with fragility threats. In the region and trying to keep the Assad government in power with its military presence in Syria, it has posed a threat to balance. The method of collecting information and data in this research is based on the library and Internet methods.