sadra city

Crisis management in flood has a distinctive relationship with urban planning and management subjects. Yearly, floods cause a lot of damage to public and private property as well as loss of life. Inspecting the strengths and weaknesses of crisis management is strongly felt during floods. This research aims to recognize and rank all kinds of crises and organizational strengths and weaknesses. Sadra city, an area that is very prone to floods, has been selected as a case study. Initially, data was collected via interviews, literature review, and distributing questionnaires among 150 crisis management specialists. After that, the SWARA method was used to analyze data, which is one of the most optimum multi-criteria decision-making methods. According to the attained results, 10 strong points and 13 weak points were recognized during the flood crisis. Among these points, the flooding of roads, the blocking of access roads, and the water supply network cut-off were the most significant types of crises, respectively. Likewise, separate and selective maps of the city and quick and easy access to addresses and parts with different uses in any section of the city with a score of 0.1718, the newness of water and sewerage, electricity, gas, and telecommunications networks in the city with a score of 0.1418 and the absence of urban decay in the city or unprincipled and non-technical suburbs were identified as the most important strengths with a score of 0.1183. Besides, according to the respondents, the most important weakness is the rain in a short period with a high volume of runoff with a coefficient of 0.1992, which causes severe damage to tables and urban facilities, and residential houses.

The purpose of this study was to investigate and analyze the most important factors affecting the failure of new cities in Iran with emphasis on the Sadra City and with a foresight approach.

The type of research is based on the purpose of applying a combination of documentary and survey methods in the exploration and based on a Foresight approach and scenario that has been implemented using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. The method of data collection is library and field studies. Structural analysis, scenario analysis and Delphi technique have been used in this research. The software used in this study is the Scenario Wizard and Mic Mac software.

Based on structural analysis results, among the 22 indicators studied, 10 indicators were selected as the most important indicators affecting the failure of new cities in Iran.Among the 10 key indicators affecting the system, four indicators are from the group of technical-engineering variables, three indicators from the group of social variables, two indicators from the group of managerial variables and one index from the group of economic variables, the results show a significant difference between technical-engineering variables. And it has a social with two other variables.

The final results also identified three scenario groups including scenarios with favorable conditions, based on competitiveness and program orientation, maintaining the status quo and critical and unfavorable conditions in improving the situation of new towns.