security consequences

In this article, the author seeks to find appropriate answers to several questions about the fate of Abu Bakr al- Baghdadi's caliphate and its affiliated human capital, as well as geopolitics, the nature and consequences of their anti-security activities in order to outline the geopolitical perspective of terrorist - takfiri  activities in the Islamic world after the collapse of the structure and political geography of the caliphate. Based on this, the author has drawn the geopolitical model of the Islamic world in three areas of "axis of resistance", "neo-ottomanism" and "Wahhabi orientation in the Islamic world" by relying on the scenario writing method called "GBN" in future studies. Relying on dual uncertainties, four scenarios have been narrated, the first one is "returning to the original territory to revive the caliphate of Iraq and the Levant"; the second scenario is "emigration to an alternative territory for the formation of Khorasan province"; the third scenario is "returning to the cyber ​​territory to establish a virtual caliphate" and the fourth scenario is "emigration to the mediating territory for the formation of the north African province". Finally, the anti-security consequences, sustainable strategies, and wild cards associated with the scenarios are introduced.  According to the researcher, in the current situation, the second and third scenarios have more operational capability at the same time. Since the most important utopia of the salafi, jihadi and takfiri currents; That is to say, the revival of the caliphate is in the geopolitics of Iraq and the Levant, if the time and environmental conditions are provided, this current will use all anti-security tools and facilities to return to its original territory in Syria (achieving the first scenario). Among the four scenarios, due to the distance of this current from the axis of resistance and the proximity to its trans-regional supporters, the most desirable scenario for the Islamic world and the axis of resistance is the fourth scenario; that is to say, is emigration to the mediating territory for the formation of the North African province.

Any abnormality in the environment, either stemming from nature or human, could have severe consequences for human life and national environmental security. Each one of environmental problems including air pollution, fossil fuels, municipal and industrial wastes, etc, could somehow affect environmental security. Meanwhile, this study aims to determine environmental constituents which affect environmental security. Doing so, it poses the question: what are environmental constituents in respect, and what impacts could each one of them have on others and on the environment's security. Following, it gathers data through questionnaire and calculates the reliability by means of Cronbach's method. To analyse the data, it applies one-variable T Test and to sequence the significance, it applies Friedman Test, and also to predict the participation of each one of the 9 factors, it exploits linear regression. Finally, the direct and indirect impact of independent variables is revealed through the analysis. The outcome of the study suggests that social problems, production of dangerous wastes, public ignorance, change in land use, unsuccessful strategies, weak performance of responsible institutions, air pollution, and inappropriate dispersion of urban and industrial engineering are the environmental constituents which affect the environment's security. In conclusion, it is revealed that social problems (increase of the population living under subsistence level, inequality of incomes, unemployment, nutritional requirements and public ignorance) affect environment's security more than other factors.