ساختار جمعیت

Estimating and projecting population size in future is utmost important for governments, because  majority of government programs and plans have a close  relationship with population and its dynamics. The aim of this paper is to project the trend of population changes and population structure over the next 50 years using Agent-Based Simulation model. The model enables to analyse different scenarios of population changes, provide as strcutural model of changes,  modeling with heterogeneous entities and provide more realistic results because of probabilistic modeling. Simulation results was compared to projection results under different scenarios conducted by the Statistical Center of Iran. The results showed a significant correlation between the two which indicates the validity of simulation model. The results also indicated that  age at marriage does not have a significant correlation with the trend of population growth in next 15 year, while  in longer term, there will be a significant correlation  Analysis of the model indicate that Agent-Based Simulation can create probabilistic, heterogeneous with policy analysis features analytical framework which can simulate annual data with minimum cost and in a virtual mean.

Iran, like other developing countries, has experienced stages of demographic transition since 1950s. During 1955-1975, the high total fertility rate (6.5 children per women) led to relative increase of population under 15 years to above 40 percent. Iran, has experienced a reduction of fertility over 1980-2010.The aim of this paper is to determine  the effect of changing in population age structure on the labor supply and economic activity rate in Iran, during the 1966-2011 and to forecast the rate until  2025. Documentary method and comparative analysis has been used. Data are derived from the Statistical Center of Iran (1966-2006) and ILO estimation's for 1986, 1996 and 2006. To achieve a structural model, this study has applied the indirect technique of standardizing age-specific activity rates and a comparsion was made with selected countries.The results showed remarkable changes in economic participation rates and share of economically active population.