ساختار سنی

This article examines the effect of net migration on Iran's population's age distribution until 2041 in. Using demographic models and methods along with data from recent census decades, the changes in demographic indicators under various migration scenarios are analyzed. The findings indicates that Iran's net migration rate in the period from 2011 to 2016 was around -1.9 per 1,000 annually. Based on the migration scenarios of this study, Iran’s net migration rate may fluctuate between 0 and -4 per 1,000. If the negative net migration balance increases and reaches -4 per 1,000 by 2041, the median age of the population will rise from 40 to 46 years, and the aging index will increase from 35 to 138 elderly individuals per 100 young people. Conversely, in the scenario of a reduction in the negative net migration and balance to zero by 2041, the median age will remain approximately 40 years, while the aging index will increase to 75 elderly individuals per 100 young people. The findings reveal that the pattern of changes in the Iran's net migration can significantly influence the dynamics of population rejuvenation, aging trends, and the pattern of shifts in the age structure pyramid. Rational and scientific policies to mitigate the negative net migration balance could help preserve human capital, enhance fertility rates, and slow the pace of population aging. Developing rational and evidence-based policies to reduce Iran’s emigration not only ensures the retention of the nation’s human capitals but also facilitates the restoration of the population’s age structure, the improvement of fertility levels, and efforts to counteract population aging.

Paleodemography seeks to discern the demographic parameters of ancient populations through archaeological evidence. The foundational assumption in paleodemographic reconstructions is that the age and sex distribution of unearthed mortality samples accurately represent the death rates of the populations they belonged to. Under the principle of uniformitarianism, it is assumed the biological processes related to mortality and fertility in human populations have remained constant over time. Apart from the importance of overall numbers and rates of population growth, analyzing population structure offers deep insights into historical demographic processes and societal behaviors. The structure of a population in turn is shaped by the aggregate impact of health and disease experiences over time within a population. In certain cases, demographic data may provide evidence of a specific cause of death. Catastrophic events, whether natural mass disasters or high-mortality disease epidemics yield mortality distributions that reflect the age structure of the population at risk. Moreover, human migration significantly affects disease distribution globally, impacting indigenous populations, while other societal factors like war can also change the population structures. This paper reviews the determinants that shape and change the demographic structures of ancient populations by using the paleo-demographic approach.

Population youth is one of the most important issues in many developing countries. The purpose of this study is to investigate demographic, economic and social factors affecting transition from young age structure in Asian and African countries between 1990 and 2020. United Nations population data for 107 countries were modeled using the event history analysis. The results of the Cox regression model showed that after adjusting for the covariates of total fertility rate, crude death rate and net migration rate as well as control variables (gross domestic product, inflation rate and urban population), the variable of total fertility rate affects transition from population youth; so that for one unit increase in the total fertility rate, the hazard of transition decreases by 58%. The role of this variable was estimated to be more significant in the African continent. The net migration rate variable is significant only in the African continent, showing a positive effect on transition from the young age structure. Considering the high fertility of African countries, the transition of age structure in these countries will not happen in the near future, and this is an important issue in macro-level policy in sectors of employment, housing, education, etc.

Population aging is a new phenomenon in the world; Of course, the experience of this phenomenon is different in developed and developing countries; the fastest growing population is in developing countries. Inactive population growth has adverse effects on the economic and social dimensions of society; because the young and old population is more of a consumer than a producer and therefore dependent on the active and employed population. In this article, the economic, social and demographic situation of the elderly in Ilam province has been studied. The research method of secondary data analysis and using the information of general population and housing censuses of Ilam province during the years 2016-2017 has been used to answer the research questions. The population aged 65 and over in Ilam province increased from 4.03% in 1976 to 5.61% in 2016 and the mean age of the province's population fluctuated between 15 and 29 years. The highest value was related to the 2016 census and the lowest was related to the 1986 census. The proportion of the elderly population in rural areas has decreased from 81% in 1976 to 43% in 2011 and the dependency ratio of the elderly has reached its lowest level in 1986. The literacy rate of the elderly in the province in 1986 was about 8%, which in 2016 reached 29%. In general, the indicators of middle age, aging rate and the rate of aging show that the population structure of Ilam province in 2006 has entered the middle age stage (aging) and is benefiting from the first population benefit.

At present, internal migration, as an important driver of population change has contributed as a replacement of fertility and death in many countries, and is considered as the main trend in the patterns of human settlement within and between countries. In addition to internal migration, due to the selective process of migration, it leads to redistribution of different age groups in the country and create changes in the age structure of the population in both the origin and destination of migration. In this regard, this article examines the effect of internal migration on changing the population age structure of the counties in Iran using secondary analysis of the 2011 and 2016 census data. The results indicated the greatest change happens in the age composition of 15-29 years. The results of the bivariate Moran's test showed that there is a spatial correlation between the levels of development and age structure changes due to migration. In fact, migration leads to a rise in the share of the young population in more developed counties, and a reduction of young population in the less developed counties. As a result, internal migration can lead to increased regional inequalities by changing the composition of the young population, which is an essential factor of development.

This article seeks to present the importance of age structure changes in unemployment changes. Therefore, by drawing a picture of changes in unemployment in Iran, their impact on changes in age structure is examined. The data is derived from the 1965-2016 Iranian decennial general censuses of population and housing. An attempt has been made to analyze unemployment trends by gender for urban and rural areas using a cross-sectional approach. An examination of unemployment indicators showed an increase in unemployment of women and men in 2006 and 2016. The standardization of the proportion of unemployed people shows that similarity in age distribution and education distribution cannot remove their differences in unemployment in the years when unemployment has increased. This finding holds for women in the whole country and women and men in urban and rural, the only exception being men in the whole country. Therefore, recent changes in unemployment must be attributed to factors other than changes in age structure and education composition such as personal characteristics (marital status and professional skills) as well as managerial problems and the lack of relevance between people's skills and requirements of the labor market.

This study is an attempt to extend the application of the direct standardization method of mortality rates, so that in addition to standardizing crude death rates, age-specific rates are also standardized based of time. Using the Ministry of Health and Medical Education registry data, age-specific mortality rates are calculated based on the all and main causes of death in 2006 and 2015 at the national level. The findings of standardized age-specific rates for the year 2015 indicate that the effect of age structure changes on age-specific mortality rates for all and the main causes of death, especially in middle and older ages, has been largely increasing. The only exception in this case was deaths from unintentional accidents at ages 15 to 24, with the age structure changes displaying a declining effect. Given the continuing process of age structure change toward older ages, it is important to consider the potential impact of age structure on mortality in policy-making and its barriers to reducing mortality rates.

Intorduction:

 Population and its characteristics play an important role in planning and policy-making and setting economic and social goals. The purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of population growth on economic growth by meta-analysis.

The aim of this study was to quantitatively combine the results of research conducted on the impact of population growth on economic growth, using meta-analysis method and comprehensive meta-analysis software (CMA2, STATA15) and searching in different databases among 143 articles, 48 ​​dissertations, and 32 selected articles. Finally, 18 studies were selected and reviewed based on six meta-analysis criteria.

Population growth has a negative effect on economic growth with an effect size of -0.38. Also, the age structure of the population with the effect size equal to 0.91 positive effect, the type of model used with the effect size of 2.27 in the self-explanatory vector pattern and 3.16 in the data panel pattern, the data type with the effect size (2.18, 3.13, and 0.40 respectively) in data (cross-sectional series, integrated data, and time series data) and skill combination with an effect size of 0.63 had a positive effect on economic growth.

According to the funnel diagram, the effect size of the studies did not have a diffusion bias. The magnitude of the effect on males is greater than females. Therefore, it can be said that men have a greater impact on economic growth. The effect of increasing education and skills were found to be significant.

Population age structure can have significant effects on economic performance considering the different economic behavior of individuals in various stages of life. In this paper, the impact of population age structure on economic growth was investigated using provincial data. For this purpose, the impact of the working-age ratio, young working-age share, old working-age share and literacy rate (in the first model) and the working-age ratio, prime-age share, elderly share and literacy rate (in the second model) on the economic growth was examined using provincial panel data. The period of 2006, 2011 and 2016 was considered.  Findings of the study show that the working-age ratio, young working-age share, prime-age share and literacy rate have a positive effect and the old working-age share and elderly share have a negative effect on economic growth of the provinces of Iran.

Population characteristics in general and specially age structure of the population, have a very important effect on the levels of government spending and thus on potential financial strain. The young and old age population are two groups that impose various costs on the government from different aspects. In particular, the young population is merely a consumer through the need for education and other services and, given the high share of the population under the age of 15, has a significant impact on the formation of government spending. Based on the estimation of regression models, the relationship between the age structure of the population and the social expenditures of the state during the period (1971-2016) is explained by using available information and statistics. Excel and Eviews have been used in calculations. The age structure of the population has a financial strain, whereby the relative increase of the elderly and younger populations increases with the share of social services substantinely. The results show that due to population pressure and increasing needs, the ratio of educational expenditures to gross domestic product is significantly affected by the proportion of young population. On the other hand, the share of health and welfare expenditures with the elderly population is positive and meaningful.

Demographic changes can affect all facets of development, including gender equality, as one of the main components of development. This study aimed at investigating the relationship between changes in population composition and gender equality in Iran during 1956-2011. The relationship is studied with a descriptive-analytical approach using secondary data and time-series models at national level. The data was obtained from Statistical Center of Iran’s population time series and various censuses’ data. Findings suggest that Composite Gender Equality Index improved considerably during the study period, and urbanization, age structure of the population, as well as women’s average age at marriage, significantly affected the composite index of gender equality. Besides, AR (1) and MA (2) components of the fitted Arima model have expectedly shown significant effect on the gender equality’s variations. Three independent variables, aggregately accounted for 33 percent of gender equality’s variance during the study period.

The size, structure and growth rate of the population have reciprocal and complicated relationships with social-economic conditions. Population characteristics play an important role in economical policy making and strategic planning of the country. Population can influence economy through supplying skilled and professional human resources as major input in economic sectors. On the other hand, economic and employment conditions of the country have important role in youth’s decision making with regard to marriage and childbearing.  Numerous studies have investigated the effect of employment and economical conditions on fertility or the effect of population age structure on economic characteristics, independently.  However, researches about simultaneous effects of these factors and interactions between these sectors within a single holistic model are scarce. In this paper, it is aimed to assess the reciprocal interaction between population variables (such as age structure, marriage, fertility), and economic factors (such as employment and occupational security, gross domestic income and welfare) using a systemic perspective and system dynamics approach. Precise and in-depth understanding of interactions between system components will assist managers to distinguish the structural causes of social-economic system behaviors, and also gain a better perspective towards challenges ahead. Obviously, using these results, planners and policy makers would be able to consider various aspects of decisions in comprehensive planning and policy makings in the country in order to achieve optimum efficiency in resource allocation.