مهاجرت های استانی

Statistical evidence indicates a high rate of internal migration in Iran and a shift in the pattern of these migrations toward an increase in inter-provincial migration in recent years. The aim of this study is to analyze the changes, patterns, effectiveness and routes of inter-provincial migration in the country during the period 2006-2016. For this purpose, the secondary analysis method of migration data from 31 provinces of the country has been used. The findings show that during the mentioned periods, some provinces have consistently been migrant-sending, while some have been migrant-receiving. The provinces of Yazd, Alborz, and Semnan have had the highest ratio of immigration to emigration. The migration reception and sendingof provinces have been affected by their level of development. During the studied periods, the intensity of migration in the spatial redistribution of the population has been higher in the western, central, and southeastern provinces and lower in the eastern provinces of the country. The effect of inter-provincial migration on population redistribution has also increased to some extent. During the period 2006-2011, the volume of migration to the capital decreased, and the volume of migration to short distances and to regional metropolises increased, while during the period 2011-2012, the opposite occurred. In both periods, the role of regional metropolitan provinces in attracting migrants from neighboring provinces (such as Khorasan Razavi Province in attracting immigrants from North Khorasan, South Khorasan, Sistan and Baluchestan, etc.) is evident. Tehran Province and its neighboring provinces with shorter distance dimensions have been the destinations for most interprovincial migrations. The results show that the flow of interprovincial migration in the country has been strongly influenced by government strategies and policies in the provinces, and this has played a significant role in shaping the spatial redistribution of the population in the country.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the spatial structure of international immigrants in Iran using log-linear models. For this purpose, inter-provincal migration data were analyzed in the 2011 and 2016 censuses, and then the future of the spatial structure of migration flows will be projected by 2026. Findings indicated that the overall level of inter-provincial migration has increased by four percent during the two censuses of 2011 and 2016, and, Tehran has had the largest share in the origin and destination of immigration during the last two censuses and based on the findings will maintain this position until 2026. However, migration structure has not been stable for most provinces during the two censuses. The results of interactive component analysis of provinces show that the provinces have the most interaction with their neighboring provinces. Overall, the current spatial structure and also the future perspective of internal migration in Iran is influenced by the unequal and unbalanced pattern of development in the provinces of the country. Therefore, policies that can reduce regional inequalities in the country can help to the optimal redistribution of the national population.