prediction

The aim of this study was to predict attitudes toward extramarital relationships based on the dark dimensions of personality and the quality of attachment in married women. The present study was descriptive and correlational. The statistical population of this study included married women who referred to Razi Counseling Center in Karaj in 1400. 191 people were considered as a sample through available sampling method. For data collection, the extramarital relationship attitude questionnaire (Watley, 2008), the Dark Triple Personality Scale (Johnson and Webster, 2010), the adult attachment style questionnaire (Collins and Reed, 1996) were used. The data of this study were analyzed using Pearson correlation test and multivariate regression analysis. The results of regression analysis showed that the total score of the dark personality triangle and the psychopath dimension separately can predict attitudes toward extramarital relationships in married women. But Machiavellian traits and narcissism as well as attachment styles are not able to predict the attitude of extramarital affairs in married women. Based on the findings of the present study, it can be said that the level of honesty, happiness and sense of humanity in psychopaths is low and has a great relationship with overnight relationships and types of sexual infidelity without creating a sensory and emotional relationship. Relationships are short-lived and due to lack of commitment, betrayal is high in such people.Keywords: Attitude towards extramarital affairs, dark dimensions of personality, quality of attachment.

The increasing complexity and, as a consequence, the self-sufficiency and independence of institutions relative to social agents is one of the problems of contemporary societies. In the course of modernization, institutions attain an objectivity that is independent of their actors. This complexity of the community management process creates issues that necessitate a focus on the future and an ability to anticipate trends and processes. Prediction is one of the neglected scientific properties in Iranian sociology. In such a way that sociology in Iran has not made an endeavor in the past fourteen decades to predict the future of a particular institution or field change. Nevertheless, sociologists have made accurate predictions unconsciously. In contrast to the prevailing trend of sociology in the rest of the world, where the future of social institutions, including the family, has received more attention, sociologists in our country have studied a variety of social changes, including revolutions and social movements. This article seeks to analyze the Iranian sociologists' perspectives on the changes in the Iranian family as reflected in their writings, in order to classify and quantify their views on the future of the Iranian family.To answer the question posed above, “what predictions have Iranian sociologists made regarding the Iranian family in terms of marriage, family size, and divorce?” The most effective method is gap analysis, which was initially utilized in engineering and has since been adapted for use in market research.In Iran, there are two distinct perspectives on the future. The first model is the result of a decade’s worth of work by futurists, which has grown increasingly potent over the past five years. Sociologists have a unique perspective on the future. They have rarely claimed the ability to predict the future, but they have expressed concern about family-related future events. Among all sociological theories, two instances can be stated with clarity. First, none of them have claimed to be able to predict the family’s future, even if they have done so in the past. Next, none of them employed conventional futuristic methods in today’s world. Yet, a substantial portion of future researchers’ research methods are derived from sociology as well. Sociology is a diverse tradition in contemporary world studies of the future. In the sphere of method, however, those who discussed the future of the family did not explicitly mention the futuristic method.Contrary to popular belief, Iranian society can be foretold through survey research. This is also evident in the realm of the family.

Reduction of fertility to ‌below‑replacement level in Iran has led policymakers to provide facilities to increase fertility, but careful assessment of the impacts of childbearing incentives have remained unattended. Using data from the 2017 Iran Fertility Transition Survey (IFTS) including 1500 households in Tehran province, this paper simulates the complex low-fertility behavior applying agent-based modeling approach in AnyLogic software environment. Various scenarios such as economic scenarios, providing government facilities, increasing the number of marriages, reducing the average age of marriage as well as a combined scenario were considered. The simulation results showed a declining trend in fertility in Tehran province for the next ten years based on which total fertility rate in Tehran will decline from 1.4 in 2019 to 1.06 in 2029. However, a 20-percent increase in the number of marriages for women leads to fertility increase from 1.06 in the base year to 1.26 in 2029. Using a combined scenario, it was shown that reduction in the average age of marriage along with improvement of childbearing conditions increase the total fertility rate to 1.6 in 2029. The policy implication of this study indicates that pronatalist programs should be developed considering the impact of incentives on couples’ reproductive behavious in order to facilitate achieving the goals of population policies while realizing their ideal and intended fertility.

Throughout the history, people have used different ways of earning income through entertainment activities. With a growing number of users, online gambling and prediction sites are among the most prevalent modes of such activities in the twenty-first century. In Iran, a lot of young people (aged 15-30) spend a considerable amount of time and energy on such sites. This phenomenological study investigates the experience of gambling sites users, seeking to provide a clear understanding of why and how Iranian users engage in such activities and justify earning income through these sites.

This qualitative study employs a phenomenological approach. Data was collected through semi-structured interviews with 20 users of gambling and prediction sites.

Several themes were extracted from the interviews, including changing Halal income, escaping from daily routine, having an intense sense of dependence, financial independence and choosing effective techniques. These themes explain how gambling websites users experience gambling and show their conceptual standpoint towards these websites.

What was remarkable in the participants’ statements was their understanding of Halal income, i.e., although like other members of the society they tried to find sources of income, they were not much faithful to conventional definitions of legitimate income. As such, they contended that in today’s world, methods of monetization had changed and any job that would require effort and concentration could qualify as a legitimate one. In fact, users of gambling sites had changed their perceptions of Halal income

According to forensic medicine statistics from 2011 to2018, The average death from accidents in Iran has been 17500 people a year.Among the factors affecting the occurrence of a accidents, the determinant roleof drivers' attitudes and beliefs is of great importance in the manner and extentof compliance with the driving rules.

This research is applicable in terms of purpose and survey in terms ofdescriptive-analytical data collection method. The statistical population of thisstudy consisted of traffic offenders in Tehran who sample size was considered390 people using Cochran formula and cluster random sampling method. Datacollection tool included 44-item researcher-made questionnaire based oncomponents of the theory of planned behavior and seventeen incidentalviolations checklist. Descriptive statistics such as frequency, mean andstandard deviation as well as inferential statistics methods such as structuralequation method, regression analysis and discriminant coefficient were usedfor data analysis.

The findings indicate the high power of the components of attitude,behavioral intention, normative beliefs and perceived behavioral control inpredicting the behavior of driving offenders with different levels of incident.The difference between the two groups of low-violent and high- violentincident drivers was that the low-violent incident drivers had a strongerperceived control belief than the other group.

Regarding the influential role of attitudes and normative beliefsin determining the behavior of drivers, designing interventional programs isimportant for enhancing positive attitudes towards traffic safety observance.

Changing in the size and age structure of the population is the main determinant of the supply of labor force in a community. Any increase or decrease in the size of the workforce can significantly affect the country's economic growth. Reaching baby boom cohort to working age, make an ideal opportunity for economic growth and development, providing that by proper planning and policy making, we can benefit the demographic window. In the present report, the results of the workforce survey, from 2006 to 2016, also the census data on population and housing in 2016 have been used to analyze the status of activity in the population of Iran. Then, through different scenarios, population, participation rates and employment rates projection are estimated, and thus supply of active labor in the future is estimated. The overall trend of participation rate for the country during the period from 2006 to 2011 was decreasing and after 2011, it is gradually increasing. In 2016, the participation rate for the whole country was 39%. With the arrival of the graduates of the 60th baby boom, as well as the likelihood of an increase in women's participation rate, it is likely that the participation rate will increase in future. In this situation, the only way forward improving the country's economy is raising the employment rate. If the government fails to reduce unemployment in policy-making, assuming a stable unemployment rate, the number of unemployment in the future will increase to 5 million people. Of courses, this assumption will be achieved with an annual employment of about 500 to 600 thousand people.

Due to urbanization and wide use of technology in life, road traffic accidents annually cause 1.2 million deaths and injury of more than 50 million people over the world. Thus, one important traffic issues, is prediction of this road traffic accidents and presentation the solutions to reduce them.

Clustering is one of the most widely used models for the prediction and identification of patterns that is used in this research. For this purpose, road traffic accident data of Fars province accidents is considered. After pre-processing, data is clustered using self-organizing neural network algorithm. Then the accident are classified into three classes such as low, medium and high and accident patterns are recognized using decision tree model.

In this research the road traffic accidents in Fars province were clustered into 11 clusters. Then the accident were classified into three classes such as low, medium and high and accident patterns were recognized using decision tree model. Finally some suggestions are offered to reduce road accidents.

Through ever-increasing economic growth, road transportation has played an essential role in State Transportation Comprehensive System. By increasing road transport in Iran, fatalities have remarkably increased. Thus, the necessity of planning for reduction of destructive effects and measuring of effectiveness for the previous conducted activities will be augmented. Measurement and planning will not be realized without gathering information and data concerning to history and prediction of the future status. The complexity, uncertainty of the factors for occurrence of accidents, and limitation of documented data about quantity of road accidents correspond to the characteristics of Theory of Grey Systems. GreyModels (GMs) requires a restricted volume of data for estimation of behavior of unknown systems. In the present paper, data from city outside road accidents (2012-2006) have been utilized to evaluate the accuracy of prediction models of GM (1,1), DGM(1,1), DGM(2,1),RGM(1,1) FGM (1,1), and Verhulst Model. The used data are classified into four groups i.e. accidents with damages, injuries, fatalities, and total accidents. The average minimum error serves as evaluation criterion for accuracy of models. In this technique, the mean error of the predicted series and series of primary data are computed. Then, number of occurred accidents in year 2013 and 2014 will be predicted by means of DGM (1,1), which has had the maximum accuracy rate in this prediction

The fact that futurology is a new branch of knowledge, enforces many limitations in research in this field. The lack of sufficient preliminary studies on which the foundations of such research could be based, is among other problems in such research. The present study thus questions whether futurology as a branch of knowledge, and the tools that it provides to the researcher, is capable of being used in the military studies in general, and the armed forces in the IR of Iran’s in particular. A valid response to the question entails reflecting on the principles of futurology on the one hand, and considering the relevant religious principles on the other, to see how compatible they are, and to what extent this could be best taken advantage of in military studies. On this basis, the main research question is as follows: “Is it possible to take benefit of “futurology” as a new branch of knowledge in the process of military studies?”. If the answer to this question is positive, one more question will be raised: “Is there an optimized method of taking benefit of futurology in the IR of Iran’s armed forces by means of which officials can efficiently apply futurology to military studies?”. The aim of this research is to determine and explain an optimized method of futurology in military studies in the IR of Iran. The research is a descriptive-analytic one, and the information is gathered using library resources, and investigating into documents.